The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

An old Russian city of Odessa continues to rename its public places: https://lenta.ru/news/2016/06/11/zhukov/

Street of Valentina Tereshkova was renamed to “Street of Heroes” (probably referreing to those “Maidan heroes” or maybe those who torched pro-Russian protesters in Odessa two years ago). Tereshkova is the first female cosmonaut in the Soviet Union.

The Avenue of Marshall Zhukov was renamed to “Avenue of Heavenly Hundred” (referring to those who died in Maidan, most of which were likely killed by the Right Sector snipers).

And the Ostrovsky street was renamed to Street of Ivan Mazepa.

The junta in Kiev is determined to rid these traditional Russian cities from their Russian past.
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New poll released in the Ukraine ... Interfax

- Ukrainian government leading country "in the wrong direction"

- Nadiya Savchenko most trusted politician in Ukraine

Polite green people monument in Simferopol city;

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160611/1041176683/crime-authorities-polite-monument.html

I do not think Novorrussia will return to Ukraine. Since 2014 Ukraine changed (is now less Russian), Novorrussia changed (is now more Russian) and Crimea changed (is now more Russian). In the case of Novorrussia, the territory surely is now very likely a territory of ethnical (self recognized) Russian majority. It means it is far closer to an integration in Russia than to a return to Ukraine.

At this point I do expect new military operations, because I do expect Ukraine to be forced to stop attacking the cities of Novorrusia, but surely limited to the territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. The main reasons for it are:

- Russia has not territorial apetite over territories without a clear local support.
- The most likely areas for new battles are inside the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and are in contact with the current frontline (Stanytsia Luhanska, Mariupol, Avdeevka and Dzerzhinsk-Torets). This would come first.
- Russia does not want a global war.

So you have that same itch that Novorussia will simply take all the rest of their respective territory and then stay as is? I think the same really. But they may be able to gain a tad bit more but I don't think all the way to Odessa.

At a level of foreign relations, surely the territory will remain like it is now because Ukraine with this conflict gets outside of the European Union and the NATO permanently, but I expect the citizens of Novorrussia easily obtain the Russian citizenship and all the benefits.

If new territories join Novorrussia, it is likely that these territories change not the current Russian reality of Novorrussia. I do not see how a Russian territory can accept to be gouverned from Kiev.

I think people can see in other places that a lot happens again tonight. Of interest is the reports of heavy artillery and MLRS strikes in the area between Yasinovataya and western Makeevka. I presume that any response is not as it will cause WWIII? if so, then head for the bunkers if the current rumors are true, but rumors are rumors and nothing but vapor until something happens. But if any response is what many would call "adequate" is another matter....

Karl Haushofer wrote:An old Russian city of Odessa continues to rename its public places: https://lenta.ru/news/2016/06/11/zhukov/

(...)

The junta in Kiev is determined to rid these traditional Russian cities from their Russian past.
Reply

Personally I propose that Kremlin goverment should name a Russian street as "The Victims At Odessa Labor Union Building Who Were Brutally Killed By Facist Scums".

Khepesh wrote:I think people can see in other places that a lot happens again tonight. Of interest is the reports of heavy artillery and MLRS strikes in the area between Yasinovataya and western Makeevka. I presume that any response is not as it will cause WWIII? if so, then head for the bunkers if the current rumors are true, but rumors are rumors and nothing but vapor until something happens. But if any response is what many would call "adequate" is another matter....

It was indeed a difficult night all along the lines. I do not know of, if any, counter battery fire from NAF against the orcs. However, it is patently obvious that the orcs now have very well trained arty spotters and observers to target and correct fire. They are doing the same thing as last year, methodically destroying all infrastructure they can plus terrorizing the citizens.

Just read the latest OSCE report. What a farce.

Last night there was in fact some more than usual counter-battery fire, but not as heavy or widespread as expected, the rumor was that it would be very heavy, oh well.....

Last year there were issues with Kuibishevsky with residents protesting at Zakharchenko to do something. The situation at Gorlovka became so serious that actions were taken around Dzerzhinsk. Then on 24 August all went quiet. I expect that this time the situation will not be allowed to get as bad as it was last summer, for instance downtown Donetsk has not been shelled by tanks or mortars as it was last summer and Gorlovka is not yet suffering widespread bombardment of residential districts, with the exception of Kirov two days ago. The only way to stop these bombardments that are happening now, or to stop them escalating to the level of last summer, is to take ground and push ukrops back at least 30 km from the outskirts of Donetsk and Gorlovka. Clearly this will mean the major offensive, for instance, if VSN have pushed ukrops back to Artemovsk and Kramatorsk, and a few other cities, which is needed to get them out of range, they will hardly stop and be going forward to push ukrops out of all DNR. Until this happens the only response is massive counter battery fire, in fact it needs a massive bombardment on every part of the line that ukrops fire from. It is Kiev that breaks Minsk, and DNR has every right to defend it's people. If MSM and western politicians shout and scream, let them, they are factually and morally wrong in everything they say and do, so why keep kowtowing to these cynical bastards.

According to TV ZVEZDA a Ukrainian BMP 2 was destroyed in Donetsk, by the Novorossyian's.

Boshoed wrote:According to TV ZVEZDA a Ukrainian BMP 2 was destroyed in Donetsk, by the Novorossyian's.

SPG+ATMG to finish them off.

eehnie wrote:- Russia has not territorial apetite over territories without a clear local support.
- The most likely areas for new battles are inside the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and are in contact with the current frontline (Stanytsia Luhanska, Mariupol, Avdeevka and Dzerzhinsk-Torets). This would come first.
- Russia does not want a global war.

Russia has/had no idea how to influence Ukrainians, if they did this mess wouldn't be as catastrophic as it is. The fact that Russia allowed basically an "anti-Russia" to grow and evolve right on its border, often encouraging it, shows how flawed their policies have been for the past three decades (or more).

Ukraine right now is geographically a mini-USSR under control of anti-Russia politics and tremendously strong ideology. Stronger than Putin's polls will ever be. The danger here is that Ukraine post-USSR and now post-Maidan is not just a country under a coup regime. It is a pseudo-nation under construction, huge landmass, big population with strong ideology to resist and erase anything Russian. Why did that happen? Combination of communism eroding national awareness, imposed language change, post-USSR history falsification, violence, coup, Russia's approval (on and off) and now war.

Kiev is the cultural birthplaces of all Russias, that is Belarus, Russia and Ukraine (not Lvov). If Russia (as in the Federation) lets one of the Russia's fall, they are next as they will have shown weakness. Crimea and barely half of Donetsk/Lugansk are peanuts to gain or hold compared to loosing places like Odessa, Kharkov, Kiev, Poltava, etc.

The same applies to a lesser extent with northern Kazakhstan, swathes of Russian lands were given away just because of the fake USSR borders. Now with them moving their capital right in the North that is also pretty much lost.

Sometimes inaction is enough to bring problems. Others just take advantage of things and who would blame them.
Russia may not want war, but they allowed it to brew and blow up on their faces.

It's so strong that it is falling apart? Ukraine cannot hold itself. Nor is capable of doing anything now economically. What it was in the past was gone over a thousand years ago. It is nothing, was nothing and will be nothing. It will end up as a two bit buffer country and nothing more. They can't take care of their own, constant protests, people being murdered left and right. And alienating a huge part of the population won't make it strong. Crimea is a huge chunk lost. Donetsk and Lugansk are another large and wealthier chunk gone too. I also think Russia's inaction has caused a blow back, and even Russians themselves are really pissed at Putin and Lavrov over it. But matter of fact is, Ukraine is a shithole lost to everyone. Funny thing too, there is quite a few Ukrainians that post on /pol/ who are sympathetic to Russia and dislike their own system. So not everyone is engraved into their idiotic system.

sepheronx wrote:It's so strong that it is falling apart? Ukraine cannot hold itself. Nor is capable of doing anything now economically. What it was in the past was gone over a thousand years ago. It is nothing, was nothing and will be nothing. It will end up as a two bit buffer country and nothing more. They can't take care of their own, constant protests, people being murdered left and right. And alienating a huge part of the population won't make it strong. Crimea is a huge chunk lost. Donetsk and Lugansk are another large and wealthier chunk gone too.

Crimea was always a trophy and obstruction for the anti-Russian side of Ukraine, them loosing it is not a great deal. They get to keep the strategic port of Odessa and get rid of a population metric they could never win via propaganda, falsified education system and so on. To a lesser extent the same applies for Donbas, but by controlling half of it they deny (via bombardment) any prospects of economic recovery there. They kept Kharkov and evidently nobody there felt obliged to resist the coup, same for Kiev and so on.

sepheronx wrote:I also think Russia's inaction has caused a blow back, and even Russians themselves are really pissed at Putin and Lavrov over it. But matter of fact is, Ukraine is a shithole lost to everyone. Funny thing too, there is quite a few Ukrainians that post on /pol/ who are sympathetic to Russia and dislike their own system. So not everyone is engraved into their idiotic system.

Surely millennials, growing up and getting educated in the Kravchuk/Kuchma/Yushenko country have this anti-Russian narrative engraved into them. Add to that the charm of EU/NATO and so on. Hard to beat really, the future is only going to benefit that kind of Ukraine.

They didn't resist cause they hated Russia, and this is obvious since no one in their right mind wants to lose business and their lively hood. But, they didn't revolt because they know they will lose their lively hood and their lives altogether. It was Russia's inaction that lead to that. But then the question raises - why help them if they won't help themselves? Ukrainians are afraid. Some protest or fight back, but rest are afraid. I met a guy from Lviv at my workplace, he explained it quite well to me. Essentially, everyone is afraid. Those that aren't are the ones running the show and subjecting others. If Ukraine was stable in its mentality (so socially), then there wouldn't be the need of these hooligans killing people like reporters, judges and politicians. People wouldn't have fled (over a million now) and there wouldn't have been news of soldiers selling equipment to their enemy, moral being stupidly low, and people would be more productive to help their ailing country.

It will all come down to if US and EU will do what Russia did for the last 20+ years - economically keep the country afloat.

Iran lost a lot of its foreign influence for decades and was surrounded. Yet in the end, they gained old ones back and new friends, and still striving for development and expansion. This is just something Russia will have to do since it failed miserably in its soft power, which many in Russia admit. I noticed now they are attempting to prevent it in remaining friendly nations of nearby. But if it requires one to simply ignore it's own people to try and prop up another? Not worth it.

I forsee a lot of borders returning to what they once we're. In this case, a split up Ukraine, like Georgia. Just how it goes. Ukraine is an artificial state that Poland and alike do not like at all. But tolerate it. But people within can barely tolerate each other.

Worst day ever since shellings are recorded and reported, it's not individual shells, but bombardments

Hermius ‏@Hermius1 3 hhace 3 horas

Kiev Regime shelling of #Lugansk and #Donetsk - June12th report #donbas #guardian #bbcnews #reuters #luhansk #cnn


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KiloGolf wrote:

eehnie wrote:- Russia has not territorial apetite over territories without a clear local support.
- The most likely areas for new battles are inside the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and are in contact with the current frontline (Stanytsia Luhanska, Mariupol, Avdeevka and Dzerzhinsk-Torets). This would come first.
- Russia does not want a global war.

Russia has/had no idea how to influence Ukrainians, if they did this mess wouldn't be as catastrophic as it is. The fact that Russia allowed basically an "anti-Russia" to grow and evolve right on its border, often encouraging it, shows how flawed their policies have been for the past three decades (or more).

Ukraine right now is geographically a mini-USSR under control of anti-Russia politics and tremendously strong ideology. Stronger than Putin's polls will ever be. The danger here is that Ukraine post-USSR and now post-Maidan is not just a country under a coup regime. It is a pseudo-nation under construction, huge landmass, big population with strong ideology to resist and erase anything Russian. Why did that happen? Combination of communism eroding national awareness, imposed language change, post-USSR history falsification, violence, coup, Russia's approval (on and off) and now war.

Kiev is the cultural birthplaces of all Russias, that is Belarus, Russia and Ukraine (not Lvov). If Russia (as in the Federation) lets one of the Russia's fall, they are next as they will have shown weakness. Crimea and barely half of Donetsk/Lugansk are peanuts to gain or hold compared to loosing places like Odessa, Kharkov, Kiev, Poltava, etc.

The same applies to a lesser extent with northern Kazakhstan, swathes of Russian lands were given away just because of the fake USSR borders. Now with them moving their capital right in the North that is also pretty much lost.

Sometimes inaction is enough to bring problems. Others just take advantage of things and who would blame them.
Russia may not want war, but they allowed it to brew and blow up on their faces.

The people seems to trust too much in the power of the propaganda. It can work in some people, but it is not enough in many cases. As example, in my country, we lived the last 500 years under foreign propaganda, and foreign "education", we have been forced to learn Spanish and French in many cases, even we have been forced to teach not the Basque language to our children in many cases, but we still are Basque. It works not. Never will work with a big percentage of the population. This is what I can say you from the experience of my family and from my own experience. We survived to the propaganda and foreign "education".

We learned not about the map under my nickname in the Spanish or in the French schools. But here is. Under the Francoism the Basque people was teached in the schools about how the Basque nationalists destroyed Gernika when the Spanish troops were to take the city. But the people is not silly, we all know who bombed Gernika.

If Obama himself comes to my country to say that we are Spanish or French his popularity in my country will fall likely under a 30%. This is how it works.

Basurin issued warning to Kiev to move out of Avdeevka coke plant http://dnr-news.com/dnr/33337-komandovanie-dnr-rekomendovalo-kievu-vyvesti-voyska-i-artilleriyu-s-territorii-avdeevskogo-koksohima.html

"I appeal to the Ukrainian military-political leadership. We know about the presence of ATO units and artillery in the area of the Avdeevka coke plant. We strongly reccomend that you remove your weapons and equipment from the area or we will have to respond, and the responce will not wait long."

The coke plant is on the northern end of Avdeevka, so to remove ukrops from the plant will mean taking Avdeevka, unless it will be only massive artillery bombardment of the plant, which I doubt as such things do not remove enemy from buildings if they are properly protected. Thermobaric will of course help, so, let's see if it's hot air from Basurin or hot air from Buratino......

Edit: The plant is owned by Akhmetov, and when he was made persona non grata last week it was speculated that a change may take place, a change that is in line with the beligerent statements of Zakharchenko and Pushilin recently. Also, it has been signalled for at least two weeks that the limits were close to being reached as regards the actions of Kiev, so if this is real from Basurin, it's probably close to the end for this Minsk shit.

GarryB wrote:So the problem with Russia is that it does not know how to manipulate the Ukrainians and force them to be friends. Russia 'let' the Ukrainians become anti Russian?

Yeap.

GarryB wrote:At the end of the day there are plenty of Ukrainians who don't hate Russia... many of them live in separatist regions as we speak and are being attacked by their neighbours for their beliefs.

Most do now. Institutional propaganda in an era of internet, social networks and millennials can do wonders.
Hence why separatist regions are insignificant in both landmass and population.

GarryB wrote:You can blame anyone you like but the ultimate responsibility lies with the Ukrainians themselves and they are going to have to live with the broken states that result from their action or inaction.

Well the issue is how Russia lost a big chunk of itself, its history, language groups, major port and so on. What the brainwashed locals did is the symptom not the disease.

GarryB wrote:Any action Russia might have taken as an alternative to what it actually did would have been no better, yet could have been potentially much worse.

Russia tried everything they could to keep the Ukraine on side, including continuing to buy their military products when they could have just as easily invested in their own economy to develop their own domestic alternatives.

No they didn't. They hardly pushed changes in their legal system, they hardly lobbied transformation from unitary state to federation, no effort to create a pro-Russia party, no appeal to young people and most importantly no effort to bilaterally agree a NATO-like alliance, that would see deployment of Russian forces in Kiev, Odessa or Kharkov.

It was 3 decades of nothing.