The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

VladimirSahin wrote:Guys why do the Ukrainians put their losses so low? Is there any evidence of them suffering the heavy casualties that the DNR said they have inflicted?

Plenty.

Blogs of ex-veterans who have ties with the 54-th brigade, for example.

VladimirSahin wrote:Guys why do the Ukrainians put their losses so low?

Are you knew to this war or what?    In any war both sides conceal their losses. The loser side is the one that has every motive to conceal its defeats. The Ukrainian army was catastrophically defeated in the summer of 2014 and lost 20.000 dead, and nobody dares to publish the truth in mainstream media. If that's waved away, it's easy they keep lying throughout all these two years about the casualties suffered during the "cease fire". I don't know why all of sudden Ukrop casualties are reported, though bloody, this setback is nothing extraordinary. I also find fishy that all of a sudden OSCE started to report somewhat accurately the intensity of the artillery exchanges.

I guess that the Ukrops would rather appear as martyrs than fools, to justify escalation and not fullfilling Minsk agreements. Novorussian side censored also Ukrainian casualties and the intensity of the fighting, at the behest of the Kremlin. I think this time people on both sides of the frontline have decided keeping the pretense of the cease fire has outlived its usefulness.

Is there any evidence of them suffering the heavy casualties that the DNR said they have inflicted?

You don't need to be a wargamer to figure out this kind of intense combat is not settled with just a handful of casualties.

From the people at spanish forum

Storm Bringer ‏@StormBringer15 24 min

#BREAKING
Some estimates of UAF losses
#Footage #Debaltseve mortuary
#ukraine #donbas #nato #poroshenko #maidan #eu

About my analysis on the intensity of the fighting and the artillery battle. Turns out I was right. "Ceasefire violations" are not single shells, but firings of a variable amount, determined only approximately, yesterday Lugansk briefing explicitly says so.

https://dninews.com/article/lugansk-defense-situation-report-22122016


"Roughly violating the Minsk Agreements, the AFU over last day have violated the ceasefire regime 15 times, having launched more than 300 mortar rounds and 130 artillery shells onto the territory of the Republic. Also the enemy fired from grenade launchers and small arms"

also, this interesting graph from the OSCE monitors, who despite looking the other way and the data not matching the Donetsk sit reps, nevertheless also confirm that Basurin is not talking about single shells, and if he does, then he is lying

Ispan wrote:

VladimirSahin wrote:Guys why do the Ukrainians put their losses so low?

Are you knew to this war or what?    In any war both sides conceal their losses. The loser side is the one that has every motive to conceal its defeats. The Ukrainian army was catastrophically defeated in the summer of 2014 and lost 20.000 dead, and nobody dares to publish the truth in mainstream media. If that's waved away, it's easy they keep lying throughout all these two years about the casualties suffered during the "cease fire". I don't know why all of sudden Ukrop casualties are reported, though bloody, this setback is nothing extraordinary. I also find fishy that all of a sudden OSCE started to report somewhat accurately the intensity of the artillery exchanges.

I guess that the Ukrops would rather appear as martyrs than fools, to justify escalation and not fullfilling Minsk agreements. Novorussian side censored also Ukrainian casualties and the intensity of the fighting, at the behest of the Kremlin. I think this time people on both sides of the frontline have decided keeping the pretense of the cease fire has outlived its usefulness.

Is there any evidence of them suffering the heavy casualties that the DNR said they have inflicted?

You don't need to be a wargamer to figure out this kind of intense combat is not settled with just a handful of casualties.

From the people at spanish forum

Storm Bringer ‏@StormBringer15 24 min

#BREAKING
Some estimates of UAF losses
#Footage #Debaltseve mortuary
#ukraine #donbas #nato #poroshenko #maidan #eu

I'm not new I'm just very vary about the numbers thrown out by both sides, it's a war I mean misinformation is a tactic. DNR says 80 plus Ukrops KIA/MIA, Ukropistan says 50 DNR guys dead... Also that 20,000 losses claim; could you provide the information source for that so I can read on about it? I haven't kept up with the war during 2014 because I left to another country, and when I did in 2015 I was pretty far behind. This thing is a mess lol!

VladimirSahin wrote:
I'm not new I'm just very vary about the numbers thrown out by both sides,

Except that the reports given by the Novorussians have turned out to be consistent, plausible, and end up being confirmed by evidence. This war has costed already more than 50.000 dead, of wich 20 thousand are Ukrainian troops.

it's a war I mean misinformation is a tactic.

If anything the Novorussian reports actually underestimate and silence the true extent of the Ukrops losses, 'cause the Kremlin and everyone else concerned is interested in pretending there is no war.

The problem with this war is the total lack of information.

Also that 20,000 losses claim; could you provide the information source for that so I can read on about it?

I can do better than that. My blog analysis are written in Spanish, but I have posted those analysis here in the past month, look up my posts, or alternatively you can visit this thread where all the info on losses and other stuff has been collected. My estimate of 20.000 casualties for this year alone is based on figures from Ukrainian hospitals added up over time wich correlate with the intensity of the fighting.

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forums/showthread.php?t=150775

Reuters - US-supplied drones disappoint Ukraine at the front lines

The 72 Raven RQ-11B Analog mini-drones were so disappointing following their arrival this summer that Natan Chazin, an advisor to Ukraine's military with deep knowledge of the country's drone program, said if it were up to him, he would return them.

"From the beginning, it was the wrong decision to use these drones in our (conflict)," Chazin, an advisor to the chief of the general staff of Ukraine's armed forces, told Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-ukraine-drones-exclusive-idUSKBN14A26D

UPDATE on the artillery battle situation.


From Chervonets site

Svetlodarsk arc
December 23, 14:30

The current fighting began early in the morning on December 18 with a serious artillery barrage. According to OSCE, the two sides have fired more than 700 howitzer shells. According to experts, this activity of the Ukrainian artillery is a a rarity. Gun barrels of majority of Ukrainian artillery pieces are worn, replacement barrels are not issued and Ukriane doesn't make them and there's no place to buy them. Already the Ukrainian forces feel ammunition shortage.

Note to self: Somewhere I have read some soldiers were killed and injured when a mortar round they were handling exploded, because it was old ammunition not just from Soviet times, but a batch of ammo that was surplus from the war.

Most recent ammunition is more than twenty years old, so I find it credible they are bringing out not just old pieces but old shells as well. Coupled with my estimates and other tidbits, it's quite likely the Ukrainian artillery is running low on ammo. Impossible to guess for how long they can go on, but when these telltale signs appear, the end is in sight, less than one year.


This item is further proof of the artillery war that has been going on unreported for the past two years, the wearing down of barrels confirms it, and explains a lot of things, why the Ukrainian artillery fire is weak , only a few shells per piece and they seem to be unable to make battery or larger salvos, nor intense or prolonged bombardments. Of couse other reasons are accurate and deadly Novorussian counterbattery fire, and  scarcity of fuel and motor transport to bring the shells from the railheads to the pieces. But is clear that the pieces, intensely used during the battles of 2014 and early 2015 are worn, and can be used only sparingly.

If the barrels are worn that would also explain why there are no more shellings of civilian populations and destruction of Novorusssian frontline positions, simply, the cannon lose range and precision due to barrel wear, and since the Ukro artillery has been forced to pull back and fire from even longer ranges due to Novorussian counterbattery.

I have no professional trained eye, but it does struck me that most Ukrop artillery incoming fire tends to be weak and dispersed. Not the kind of concentrated barrages one has seen from world wars footage.

This just in

Storm Bringer ‏@StormBringer15 29 minHace 29 minutos

#BREAKING
Former DPR High Commander Strelkov reports
(maybe dramatizing!)
#ukraine #debaltseve #svitlodarsk #nato #donbas #krieg #osce #unsc

Top move apart from the risks to their flanks and future supply problems. Have the UA learnt nothing about creating cauldrons for themselves?

Out of curiosity, how far is that from the border?

Svetlodarsk ark = "flash in a pan". A mix of diversion from Privatbank, a need for some kind of peremoga, even totaly false such as the "capture" of Novolugansk, and securing the interests of smugglers, which aspect Rozhin has now covered. Floating around are VSN casualty figures of 28 dead and 63 wounded. This is not official and has no proof behind it, but due to the fighting it could be a realistic figure. Ukrops casualties likely now in multiple hundreds of dead and wounded.

Despite the excellent recent videos from "Grisha" and Lancaster, multiple red rings on military maps etc, no serious attempt to take or cut off Debaltsevo has, or is, occuring. When there is the news of at least four ukrops brigades attacking and that VSN reserve have moved, then it could be said a serious attempt on Debaltsevo is occuring, but this at the moment is not very serious.

franco wrote:From an officer of the UA's 54th brigade;

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2342571.html

Yandex translate minus videos

The Ukrainian battalion of the 54th brigade with the Callsign "Dome" on the losses of the Ukrainian army

bmpd
December 24th, 11:44

Original taken from colleagues diana_mihailova battalion in the 54th brigade with the Callsign "Dome": the total loss, ranging from 18 to 23 December, is 72 people


The commander of the battalion, 54th mechanized brigade APU officer with the Callsign "Dome": the Total amount of loss from 18 December to 23 December, is 72 people.

23 December, 2016 about the current situation on the arc Svetlodarsk, the loss of Ukrainian forces in recent days have told a direct participant in the fighting the commander of the battalion, 54th mechanized brigade APU officer with the Callsign "Kupol".

"To date, none of our prisoner on their side, not their no prisoners and us. Starting from 18 December, nine "hundred" (lost), 35 "three hundredth" (wounded) 17 contused, 11 injured. Missing no longer. The total number of losses is 72 people. The biggest loss on 18 December, and then became less."

Note: If you add voiced DUK PS own loss of 19 killed, it turns out Basurin announced the day before a figure of up to 100 people.



The losses of the enemy I can not say exactly, but certainly more than we have."

From the same interview: "on the 18th we went to their position and entrenched there. ... We comply with the Minsk agreements...".

The same "Dome" two years ago takes "Motorola" their dead. The stark contrast of words and deeds. From the "fraternal war" to "illegal armed groups". Even the loss of time and do not affect... However, then losses too.

Motorola and the commander of the armed forces "Dome". Handshake. Watch from 1:25 min.

-I think we are still the world will celebrate. I think it's a brotherhood war that nobody wants. Importantly, we have the top figured out. And we are soldiers. We were told. We do - the battalion commander of the Ukrainian army "Dome".

- I think it will be all right, let us strive, on the background of this truce will occupy all the places. To avoid unnecessary "bodalova". Neither me nor you people do not want to lose - addressed to "Motorola" to the commander of the Ukrainian...

- To solve not to us, there are superiors, but I believe that we should tolerate, let's not run and let's all settling down somehow - agreed to the Ukrainian commander. After that, "Motorola" and "Dome" shook hands...

From Doni

Saturday, December 24, 2016 - 16:26

Our investigation continues registering the strengthening of the AFU positions near the line of contact. So near the settlements of:

Anadol (22 km away from the line of contact) there was revealed the location of 12 units of MLRS “Grad”; Lebedinskoye (6 km away from the line of contact) there were revealed the firing positions of four 122-mm self-propelled howitzers of "Gvozdika";

Svetlodarskoye (6 km away from the line of contact) there was detected the arrival of four 152-mm self-propelled howitzers "Akatsiya", reported the Vice-Commander of the DPR Operational Command Eduard Basurin.

Also, there was detected the arrival of up to 400 personnel of the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies for the strengthening of the alignment of forces in the area of the locality of Svetlodarsk.

So... Ukraine is advancing still? Where the f*** is that Northern Wind at.

A brief casualty report from the DPR

---

6 people perished in the DPR since December, 43 wounded

on: December 24, 2016

‘Since December 3 to December 23, as a result of Ukrainian aggression, 12 DPR soldiers perished, 3 civil men and 1 civil woman perished. The woman perished as a result of explosion on the mine in the village Yasnoe close to Dokuchaevsk’, it was reported by the DPR Defence Minstry.
Moreover, 43 people got wounds for this period, 40 of them are militarymen.

Source: http://novorossia.today/6-people-perished-in-the-dpr-since-december-43-wounded6-people-perished-in-the-dpr-since-december-43-wounded/

---

The title of the article is a bit misleading, it mentions 6 deaths, while there were 16 fatal losses in total.

VladimirSahin wrote:So... Ukraine is advancing still? Where the f*** is that Northern Wind at.

As I said, the DPR/LPR will not be allowed to win any more big battles or gain more territory. The political and economic cost would be too big for Russia.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

VladimirSahin wrote:So... Ukraine is advancing still? Where the f*** is that Northern Wind at.

As I said, the DPR/LPR will not be allowed to win any more big battles or gain more territory. The political and economic cost would be too big for Russia.

Holy fuck you know nothing. I suggest you stop posting altogether.

Economic cost? What economic cost? Please, indulge us. I figure this will be a good laugh.

miketheterrible wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

VladimirSahin wrote:So... Ukraine is advancing still? Where the f*** is that Northern Wind at.

As I said, the DPR/LPR will not be allowed to win any more big battles or gain more territory. The political and economic cost would be too big for Russia.

Holy fuck you know nothing.  I suggest you stop posting altogether.

Economic cost? What economic cost? Please, indulge us.  I figure this will be a good laugh.

Look, Russia is looking to lift the EU sanctions and get that Exxon investment into Russian Arctic. They will not jeopardize that for a piece of worthless land, destroyed infrastructure and poor people who inhabit it.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

VladimirSahin wrote:So... Ukraine is advancing still? Where the f*** is that Northern Wind at.

As I said, the DPR/LPR will not be allowed to win any more big battles or gain more territory. The political and economic cost would be too big for Russia.

Holy fuck you know nothing.  I suggest you stop posting altogether.

Economic cost? What economic cost? Please, indulge us.  I figure this will be a good laugh.

Look, Russia is looking to lift the EU sanctions and get that Exxon investment into Russian Arctic. They will not jeopardize that for a piece of worthless land, destroyed infrastructure and poor people who inhabit it.

I knew it.

Did a quick search, see that you are slow also in the head (seems to be common here on this forums).

Did you know under sanctions, Russia has obtained a growing amount of foreign investments in 2016? Yeah, bet you didn't know that. Did you also know that there is a huge boost in import substitution? Also, hope you realize that Exxon Mobile has a large investment in Russia dating prior to sanctions and well, sanctions doesn't apply to large rich companies. Ukraine means nothing and little of business prospects to the west, so they don't really care.

You do know what the purpose is of not taking more territory is, right? The legitimacy of Novorussia. If they do attack to grab more land, it will be seen as aggression and it further hurts the legitimacy of the group. They are trying to win the hearts and minds of people outside of that region in order to gain legitimacy and become a state or some kind of authority in the that part. Or end up as Russian ISIS in the foreign community.

Russia doesn't give two shits about the foreign investors in this regards. Foreign investors will come regardless, like it did for Nazi Germany, South Africa, etc. Business has no flag.

still do you learned not the Novorrussian tactics?

When Ukranians want to advance they open the door. Later the close the door with the Ukranians inside. Finally they expell the Ukranians that die not with nothing in the hands.

The easiest way to have additional supplies.

http://antifashist.com/item/razval-ukrainy-prodolzhaetsya-polskaya-obshhina-potrebovala-avtonomii-dlya-lvovskoj-oblasti.html

The collapse of Ukraine continues: the Polish community demanded autonomy for the Lviv region

miketheterrible wrote:http://antifashist.com/item/razval-ukrainy-prodolzhaetsya-polskaya-obshhina-potrebovala-avtonomii-dlya-lvovskoj-oblasti.html

The collapse of Ukraine continues: the Polish community demanded autonomy for the Lviv region

The poster behind one of the panelists in the photo in that piece states: Lviv - Poland. That about sums it up.
Banderite nationalism originates and is sustained from a part of "Ukraine" that does not think of itself as Ukrainian.
Country 404 indeed.

i hope this is not true

http://www.france24.com/en/20161226-fragile-new-ukraine-truce-holds-third-day

The latest truce came shortly after a battle for control of Debaltseve -- a railway hub that links the pro-Russian regions of Lugasnk and Donetsk.

Details are disputed but Kiev appears to have won back control of most regions around the town after an initial rebel assault.

Godric wrote:i hope this is not true

http://www.france24.com/en/20161226-fragile-new-ukraine-truce-holds-third-day

The latest truce came shortly after a battle for control of Debaltseve -- a railway hub that links the pro-Russian regions of Lugasnk and Donetsk.

Details are disputed but Kiev appears to have won back control of most regions around the town after an initial rebel assault.

I think the last 5 words are enough to determine whether it is true or not.