The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

Karl Haushofer wrote:

VladimirSahin wrote:So... Ukraine is advancing still? Where the f*** is that Northern Wind at.

As I said, the DPR/LPR will not be allowed to win any more big battles or gain more territory. The political and economic cost would be too big for Russia.

As if the needless escapade in Syria is "not costly."

Who are you trying to fool?

Clearly isn't real news since dninews or others would have mentioned it. They been real honest in their reporting and certain people on Twitter would have mentioned as such.

France24 gets its news from Ukrainian sources. Which are not real news at that, one Ukrainian news agency is done for.

miketheterrible wrote:France24 gets its news from Ukrainian sources. Which are not real news at that, one Ukrainian news agency is done for.

Yeah I checked that on the day and only Kiev Post had an article with the same rhetoric.

Situation not looking good today

pete john ‏@petejohn10 10 hHace 10 horas

Summary of #DONBASSWAR #Donbass #Donetsk #Luhansk #Lugansk #Novorossiya #UkraineRegime #Kiev #Ukrops #Nato #Mercs #EU
#UN

Seems our side is also complaining about short rounds from own artillery due to barrel wear. That's worrisome.

Harman;18435694 wrote:Storm Bringer ‏@StormBringer15 1 h

#Breaking
#Svitlodarsk - #Debaltseve area - Battle scene- report -1 week ago
#ukraine #donbas #nato #osce #poroshenko #unsc #russia #krieg

This sounds crazy, but there were a lot of reports in 2014 that ukrops were attacking in droves while being drunk or high on drugs. Strelkov himself said so during the retreat from Slavyansk, that ukros just stood in the middle of a field wandering like zombies.

Poroshenko Pledges vs. Facts at the Frontline

Poroshenko seems fully detached from reality on the ground.





Read more at http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f60_1482607599#m3iROPKDvTLAt8Qz.99

This is encouraging

https://dninews.com/article/alexander-zakharchenko-future-minsk-talks-return-dpr-territorial-integrity

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Poroshenko Pledges vs. Facts at the Frontline

Poroshenko seems fully detached from reality on the ground.

Yearly report from Donetsk. Some useful data, but Basurin is lying or ordered to lie as the ammo consumption and ukrops casualties statistics are one tenth (1/10) of what they actually are, in order to keep the farce going.

https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-yearly-situation-report-30122016

Lugansk report is here much duplicated content from copypasting.

https://dninews.com/article/lugansk-defense-yearly-situation-report-30122016

I finished a lenghty analysis of the yearly report, it is in Spanish but with google translate and the reports above you should be able to follow it

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2016/12/31/analisis-militar-del-ano-2016-en-cifras/

Happy new year

The fight in Krimskoe seems interesting

6 Ukrainian soldiers desert over New Years

Lugansk January 2. Ukrainian military command over the past holidays in the search filed six soldiers, voluntarily left the place of service in the Donbass, the official representative of the People's Militia Andrey Marochko.

New Year's Day for the APU on the contact line in the Donbass, several instances of desertion. Thus, according to security officials LC representative Andrew Marochko, 4 days of celebration - from 30 December to 2 January, had been on the wanted list of six Ukrainian soldiers left their duty station. Security officials said that three deserters left the 54th Brigade, the two left the 93rd Brigade and one soldier left the 14th brigade of the AP

The Ukrainian authorities are going to regain control over the entire territory of Donbass the middle of next year, said Deputy Minister of Ukraine for the temporarily occupied territories George Tooke. This report should be seen as just another declaration of commitment to Euro-Atlantic values, and no more, said independent political analyst Alexander Asaph.

"My expectations are optimistic. The next year Ukraine will return Donbass ... I really hope that this will happen in the next year, a maximum - to the middle of 2018. However, it is critical to retain the support of the United States and Europe ", - said the Ukrainian politician.

As informs "Gazeta.ru," Tuck sure that Kiev is able to return uncontrolled territory only on its own terms. However, political scientist Asaph recalls that recent strong statements of the Ukrainian political elite to obtain very different directions.

"All these statements about the return of the Donets Basin, the country's future are poorly harmonized chaos. First, we hear statements from nationalists on universal blockade of Donbass, then President Poroshenko negotiated during his speech in Shirokino and declares that "the Ukrainian occupation is not eternal and will be over soon." Next Tuck said that the blockade of Donbass is no point. But today, he says that the region is somehow come back to Ukraine ", - said the expert.

Alexander Asaph does not rule out that the implementation of their plans to return to Kiev Donbass can train both military and peaceful scenario. However, while Ukraine has never were presented by the international community of its understanding of the peace process.

"Previously, Kiev has repeatedly stated about developing a plan for the peaceful return of the Donbass, but no specific documents, we have not seen. And I would not attach any importance to this, since the agenda is subject to change, depending on what will tell the European and especially American allies in Ukraine after the inauguration of Trump. In this case - is another declaration of commitment to the Euro-Atlantic, mostly American values, as well as the hope that the Donbass, one way or another, will be returned. In this kaleidoscope I would also add high-profile tycoon of showing Tymchuk, who said that we need to forget about the Crimea and Donbas actually say goodbye to the world for the sake of Ukraine ", - says political consultant.

Note particularly important for Tuki is returning Donbass full political support of the European Community and the United States.
"But I do not think that Brussels and Washington cares about what is happening today in Kiev. Trump is an internal debate with the Congress, and Europe is preparing for a new electoral cycle, and all these statements have not yet been heard. I think that in the early days, all it is generally devoid of any meaning. So it's a versatile testing controversy coming from different ideological centers of Ukraine. We can assume that it is running any election models ", - concluded the political analyst.


Sergey Chemekov

riafan.ru

EDIT: Mr Tooke has obviously been toking... why too much and not just weed either

Its seems like the Maidan will manufacture M16 and abandon AK ?

http://daily.com.ua/business/03-01-2017335903 (written in Russian)

Slightly off topic, since this is about the state of the Ukraine regime forces and the overall military situation, but I did the mistake of trusting the DNI reports on civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. The figures seemed low but I did not give much thought and not see reason to doubt them. Turns out they are cooked as well, probably doing the same expedient of taking last month figures and passing them for the whole year, or in view of the multiple coincidence it's maybe a systemic error of the worker that copypastes the text into automatic translation and posts it in English.

Turns out there are official figures much higher, but likely for reasons of not hurting morale and limiting the outrage of the militia fighters that want to go on the offensive, they are not publicized

It gives another indirect confirmation of the intensity of the artillery bombardments and of the war.


Relevant excerpts:


http://www.globalresearch.ca/war-in-donbass-on-russias-doorstep-3600-civilians-killed-by-ukrainian-forces-and-neo-nazi-militia-since-minsk-ii-agreement/5544926

According to data obtained recently from the DPR authorities, 3,609 civilians died in strikes by Ukrainian forces between 13 February 2015 and 26 August 2016, of which 3,133 were men, 476 women, 65 children and 352 “unknown”.

In addition, figures from the DPR Ministry of Utilities and Housing Construction state that up 20 July 2016 4,359 ‘multi-family housing’ were damaged, of which 54 are irreparable, and 6,307 private houses damaged, of which 1,853 are irreparable.

As the neighbouring Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) has also experienced similar military strikes and civilian casualties, a very rough estimate would suggest that at least 6,000 civilians have died in strikes by Ukrainian forces on the Donbass republics since Minsk II.

This is a report from september 2016. The months between September 2015 and January 2016 were relatively calm, though there was never a ceasefire at all. It also does not take into account the last three months where attacks and shelling grew every week worse, with corresponding casualties.


This breaks my heart, even though most of the victims were murdered by the bombardments of the summer of 2015, and the Ukranian forces are not allowed or unable to shell city downtowns as they did before, there must have been at the very least another 1.000 civilian dead during 2016.

Military casualties are likely even higher than I am estimating. I would say closer to 10.000 ukrainian dead, and 3.000 novorussians then.

Novorussians are tight lipped about the enemy losses, but they let slip this yesterday on Donetsk briefing:

Against this background words of the deputy minister on the so-called temporarily occupied territories and internally displaced persons Tuka sound too optimistically, when he says that Donbass will be forced to be a part of Ukraine in one and a half years at most. Proceeding from the statistics of combat and noncombat losses in the AFU, in one and a half years there will be just nobody "to force."

What is interesting is that after one year of seven drafts, recruiting even people on their 40s, the regime was supposed to have a quarter million troops under arms, yet frontline strength has not increased but substantially decreased.

Probably strength is closer to 150,000, of wich one third in the front, one third non-combat service troops, and other 50,000 troops in reserve and occupation duties. National Guard and paramilitary nazi battallions were about that strength combined, and they are increasingly seen in the frontlines.

I really doubt that there's much of a partisan or resistance movement in occupied Donbass, beyond raids by patrols that infiltrate across the front but the fact that so many troops have to be deployed for rear area security shows at least the threat is present. Also, the regime must also keep troops deployed in pro-Russian regions as Kharkov to guard against rebellion and some troops in Kiev to protect against another coup or Maidan revolt.

To any Russian speakers

I just noticed the reports from "Mage" (who is he, btw?) quoted by Chervonets only talk about events in Donetsk sector and vicinities, wich give a misleading impression as there is lots of combat happening elsewhere.

Are there any reports from people at the scene in Lugansk republic? I find it hard to believe that in a front 150 km long and where the Ukrops have 20.000 men or 2/5 of their force is completely quiet.

Also, there's little reported from the southern front, S of Donetsk and all the way to the coast. I figure out this is because that region is open steppe and sparsely populated, so no much chance some civilians with internet connections report from there.

higurashihougi wrote:Its seems like the Maidan will manufacture M16 and abandon AK ?

http://daily.com.ua/business/03-01-2017335903 (written in Russian)

... No, BS export projection with m43 round.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:Its seems like the Maidan will manufacture M16 and abandon AK ?

http://daily.com.ua/business/03-01-2017335903 (written in Russian)

... No, BS export projection with m43 round.

For me this is a sign of lack of weapons and/or ammunition of 5.45mm of Sovietic origin surely in all Eastern Europe except Belarus and Russia.

Also I would take it as a fake new to hide the export to Ukraine of old American or European stocks.

General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine is preparing a large-scale mobilization of reserve officers in 2017

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/01/ukraine-army-preparing-large-scale.html

Ukrops really getting desperate. This is indicative of heavy casualties, they have lost a lot of officers, and want to recruit 4.000 (four thousand) and you can just improvise them with a few months of training.

As I understand it, they are calling people who got military education as officers, but did not serve in the armed forces."

404 Maidanuts are desperate. US will soon abandon them after Trump inauguration and EU will as well abandon them with eurosceptics wining their votes in Holland, France, Germany, etc. Ukropistan Will be Quite soon isolated country with destroyed economy and one of the poorest states in the World. New war against Novorussia is the last chance to prolong their staying in power. They know, that Ukrainian army will be destroyed by Novorussian army in new war and that they will lost Donbass for ever. But destroyed army could not make a coup against crazy government.

I expect, that Ukropistan army will start new winter campaign and that by spring whole Novorussian territory will be liberated and there will be no cease fire to save ukronazis from disaster.

Turns out some other people are reaching the same conclusions about the Ukrainian army ammunition situation,

http://stockinfocus.ru/2017/01/06/ka...shhat-donbass/

auto trans, readable, edited for clarity:

Indeed, after two years of confrontation Ukrainian army has spent almost the entire stock of ammunition inherited from the Soviet past, and the Ukrainians still have not learned to make cartridges and shell So the idea of ​​a direct military invasion of the territory of Donbass not confirmed by reality.

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:Its seems like the Maidan will manufacture M16 and abandon AK ?

http://daily.com.ua/business/03-01-2017335903 (written in Russian)

... No, BS export projection with m43 round.

For me this is a sign of lack of weapons and/or ammunition of 5.45mm of Sovietic origin surely in all Eastern Europe except Belarus and Russia.

Also I would take it as a fake new to hide the export to Ukraine of old American or European stocks.

No this means they have huge stashes of M43 and a lot of powder laying around enough to try and sell this shit around.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:Its seems like the Maidan will manufacture M16 and abandon AK ?

http://daily.com.ua/business/03-01-2017335903 (written in Russian)

... No, BS export projection with m43 round.

For me this is a sign of lack of weapons and/or ammunition of 5.45mm of Sovietic origin surely in all Eastern Europe except Belarus and Russia.

Also I would take it as a fake new to hide the export to Ukraine of old American or European stocks.

No this means they have huge stashes of M43 and a lot of powder laying around enough to try and sell this shit around.

No, it means some official in Kiev is trying to make money.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:Its seems like the Maidan will manufacture M16 and abandon AK ?

http://daily.com.ua/business/03-01-2017335903 (written in Russian)

... No, BS export projection with m43 round.

For me this is a sign of lack of weapons and/or ammunition of 5.45mm of Sovietic origin surely in all Eastern Europe except Belarus and Russia.

Also I would take it as a fake new to hide the export to Ukraine of old American or European stocks.

No this means they have huge stashes of M43 and a lot of powder laying around enough to try and sell this shit around.

Yes I was saying the second because of this. But they have not problem with moving Sovietic weapons and ammunition from Eastern Europe to Ukraine, because they put their stocks in the Eastern European countries instead. Even they prefer it to "raise" the weapons of these new NATO countries to "NATO standards".

Well, you know.

As if on cue, Donets daily briefing for today (January 7) reports on the enemy ammunition shortage. There has indeed been a drastic reduction in artillery fire over the past two weeks and now is mostly mortar fire.

https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-situation-report-7012017

"Nevertheless, our intelligence detected reduction of artillery ammunition stocks in the AFU units. In this connection the ‘ATO’ command introduced a restriction regime for heavy weapons’ application which is implemented by setting a daily limit of the applied ammunition for each military unit. According to our data, strategic stocks in the AFU warehouses are running out of inventory, in this regard the Ukrainian authorities are looking for sources of ammunition’s replenishment. One of them is a purchase of ammunition at the expense of budgetary funds in the Middle East countries, the territories of which are partially controlled by international terrorists, and the second one is by means of the increase in manufacturing capacities of the Ukrainian Defense Industry."

Ispan wrote:
As if on cue, Donets daily briefing for today (January 7) reports on the enemy ammunition shortage. There has indeed been a drastic reduction in artillery fire over the past two weeks and now is mostly mortar fire.

https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-situation-report-7012017

"Nevertheless, our intelligence detected reduction of artillery ammunition stocks in the AFU units. In this connection the ‘ATO’ command introduced a restriction regime for heavy weapons’ application which is implemented by setting a daily limit of the applied ammunition for each military unit. According to our data, strategic stocks in the AFU warehouses are running out of inventory, in this regard the Ukrainian authorities are looking for sources of ammunition’s replenishment. One of them is a purchase of ammunition at the expense of budgetary funds in the Middle East countries, the territories of which are partially controlled by international terrorists, and the second one is by means of the increase in manufacturing capacities of the Ukrainian Defense Industry."

I'd noticed in the DONI reports the lack of 122 and 152 shelling recently and had put it down to a leftover of the ceasefire.

What a hoot. ISIS selling the ammo it got via Saudi/Bulgaria etc back to Ukraine. You couldn't make this up.

Did no-one in the MoD in Kiev do any stock calculations?