The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

The bullshit meter went off the dial with that well written (cough cough) piece of fiction. Only ones who would believe that are CNN and Reuters 'reporters'. If the Russians are there, let's see verifiable photos. No verifiable by date, time and location photos, it's bullshit.

JohninMK wrote:A long article on the demise of the steel industry in Ukraine. Is this really unintentional or is it part of a long term strategy by the EU to kill a competitor?

Ukraine's once-proud metallurgical industry, previously accounting for 10-13% of the country's GDP, and providing up to 40% of the country's export earnings, is facing a severe crisis. The latest figures show that the production of steel, rolled metal and iron were down 18-22% in the first five months of 2017.

According to stats published by Ukrmetallurgprom, a Ukrainian association of metallurgical plants, steel production fell by 18%, to 8.7 million metric tonsbetween January and May 2017, year on year. In the same period, output of rolled metal products dropped 20%, to 7.46 million tons, while iron production fell 22% to 7.92 million tons. Coking coal production also fell 25%, to 4.18 million tons, indicating a major drop in producer demand.

Throughout the 1990s and into the early 2010s, Ukraine enjoyed the status of a major steel-producing power. Responsible for about a third of Soviet steel production in 1990 (when the USSR was ranked number one in global steel output), Ukraine ranked fifth in the world in steel output immediately following independence in 1992. A quarter of a century later, the country faces the prospect of dropping out of the top ten producers.

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201706131054586617-ukraine-steel-production-drop/

Here's a riddle - what does steel production need a lot of as a raw resource; and what did the Ukraine previously import a lot of from the Donbass before it enacted a blockade against it?

Classic Ukraine - shooting themselves in the foot. They never learn.

Interesting little article on Donetsk

My refusal to believe ongoing Western media reports of “Russian aggression” makes me a “Kremlin troll”. My punishment for not towing the “party line” – simple, effective “shunning” by Western media – has not, however, diminished my ongoing commitment to seeing the other side.

http://orientalreview.org/2017/06/14/donetsk-peoples-republic-story-untold-by-western-media/

kvs wrote:Anonymous sources again.  Pure fiction.   The narrative being peddled is that the mighty Ukr army is fighting the Russian
army in the Donbas.   So any bit of agitprop to push this BS narrative will do.   I love all the fake detail about which Russian
companies are involved.   No amount of spying by the US would provide such a rich information profile.  It is fantasy by
the author of this propaganda piece.

Also, since when did NATO restrain itself from open assistance to rebels around the world?   Exhibit A: Ukraine.  Assisting
coups and insurgencies is a full time activity for NATO.    Russia is not legally obligated to sit by and watch as the maggots
in Kiev ethnically cleanse the Donbas.   By sending the rebels weapons, EW equipment and trainers Russia is doing the morally
correct thing.   However, Russia is also messing things up by pressuring the rebels to abide by the Minsk II nonsense.  

Anonymous sources? I don't think so. Last year I have read enough Inform Napalm.com to know that they are constantly writing about the presence of various Russian EW complexes, counter-battery radars, mobile command posts, signal vehicles, artillery pieces and AFVs from various military units from Russia.

Guess who they are relying on?

.............- drumroll -.......... Pro-Ukrainian and Ukrainian "hacktivists", columnists who call themselves OSINT observers, and the notoriously pro-regime "Mirotvorets" think tank.

Laughingstock, isn't it?

Reposting of last week posts in another forum

The woman I know in the militia posted this pic and I asked her about it



It's an old World War II vintage "limonka" hand grenade, no longer in production since decades. The Novorussian found some in old stocks and are using them, for boobytraps like this.

Unlike the world wars, hand grenades are rarely used, since every rifleman has an automatic assault rifle it is simply suicidal to get within throwing range. Plus the Ukrop infantry lacks the motivation and training to press on infantry assaults into close quarters... unless high on drugs, wich does happen. Thrown grenades have been largely replaced by the underslung 30mm launcher.

Grenades are only used in combat in urban areas, by patrols in night time raids where you can sneak in close enough to use it, and some Novorussians keep at least one to blow themselves up if about to be captured by the enemy, rather than being tortured to death.


From this picture and another assortment of pictures of old junk in use by the militias, and after talking at length with my source, I am now convinced no ammunition is coming from Russia and if shipments arrive, they are top secret and unknown to the average frontline miltia.

They are using local resources, and that perhaps explains why Novorussian artillery fires only sparingly and the apparent passivity of militias under the pretense of adhering to Minsk. It's not just about keeping the conflict from escalating, there are powerful reasons to save ammunition for the decisive battle.


Perhaps the maneuver forces that have the tanks and armored vehicles and the artillery and train incessantly in the rear areas would know about "secret aid", because they would notice if they receive munitions and equipment they know it's not sourced from captures. Perhaps...



All in all, really sad and disappointing that whatever arrives comes from the Russian people, not from the government, the more so compared with the lavish aid to Siria.

From my blog, reposted here in abbreviated trans, plus additional confirmation from another source

The western Ukraine, depopulated of men by war - 04 May

I just talked to a neighbor who is married to a Ukrainian, very pretty, from the west and a half Polish, and rabid Russian hater.


The gentleman surprised me, he was intelligent and learned. He had a much more balanced view and recognized that it is a civil war, and that everything they tell about the war in the media, if they say anything, is a lie. He does not argue with his wife, but he disagrees.

It is comforting to know that what I post os confirmed by people who have been there and know the reality firsthand.

The funny thing about these patriotic Ukrainian emigres is that they shout "glory to Ukraine!", but they do not want to go to war. He told me that his brother-in-law (his wife's brother), who is forty years old, is hiding so he won't be conscripted.

This man agrees that there are tens of thousands of dead, many more than the ten thousand who have been repeated for years, that the Ukrainian army is a disaster and there is no enthusiasm for war. He travels to Ukraine every year and told me that in his region, in Lvov, all the men, young and not so young, have disappeared in the villages. All have fled the country for fear of being called up. Those that could, of course.


Ukraine calls on reserve officers - 17 May

The war continues, and the gradual and inexorable wear of the Ukrainian army

An organization of Ukrainian volunteers denounces the catastrophic shortage of soldiers and officers, so now they have to call in the retired officers.

On 14 May, the Armed Forces General Staff issued orders to the Ukrainian military recruitment offices to begin preparations for the recruitment of reserve officers under the age of 43.

In March, Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak asked the retired military to return to service.

In my opinion, as long as this low-intensity war continues, they have no problem keeping about a hundred thousand men in the front, but at the price of having no reserves or replacements.


Someone that reads my blog passed this onto me, from some Spanish source, it seems the problem is not just Western Ukraine, but the whole country:

No young men left in South Ukraine, draft dodging and desertion rampant- 18 June

I already commented that I had read in several blogs that Ukraine had problems of recruitment, so the other day I asked a Ukrainian acquaintance who has been residing here in [Spain] for almost 20 years and who travels every year to his home city (Nykolayev or something like that), what he thinks about the subject, and besides telling me that he blamed for everything the Russians who he called the children of Satan, he observed a lack of men in the city, especially young people, among other things according to him because they emigrated or hid to avoid being recruited and that the desertions were very numerous, apart from a lack of motivation in large sectors of the population who are aware that it is a civil war.

(that is, they don't buy the propaganda about a "Russian invasion" and know they are fighting for a corrupt regime against their own countrymen)
__________________
CANNON, n.
An instrument employed in the rectification of national boundaries.

The Devil's Dictionary, Ambrose Bierce

Do we know if any of the ammo factories in Donbas are in production?

I suppose the young, apart from being in hiding, are now mainly in Poland or Russia and may never return.

There is a plant in Lugansk apparently making ammunition.

Auslander has probaby abandoned this forum, but he provided this report, very informative

https://thesaker.is/ukraine-escalates-an-armed-conflict-on-donbass/

Ispan wrote:Auslander has probaby abandoned this forum, but he provided this report, very informative

https://thesaker.is/ukraine-escalates-an-armed-conflict-on-donbass/

I am still here virtually every day but of late I've kept my mouth shut in regards to Novorossiya.

The person we met did, however, move me to the point I had to write about the person.

We also speak often to most of those we got out in late summer, fall and early winter of '14 and all are doing well. One husband has been killed in the fighting, all the other husbands were wounded to one extent or another but all are back to duty. The 5 orphans are still under our protective wing.

auslander wrote:

Ispan wrote:Auslander has probaby abandoned this forum, but he provided this report, very informative

https://thesaker.is/ukraine-escalates-an-armed-conflict-on-donbass/

I am still here virtually every day but of late I've kept my mouth shut in regards to Novorossiya.

The person we met did, however, move me to the point I had to write about the person.

We also speak often to most of those we got out in late summer, fall and early winter of '14 and all are doing well. One husband has been killed in the fighting, all the other husbands were wounded to one extent or another but all are back to duty. The 5 orphans are still under our protective wing.

Respect.

[quote="JohninMK" Respect.[/quote]

John, that means a great deal to me and I thank you.

auslander wrote:

Ispan wrote:Auslander has probaby abandoned this forum, but he provided this report, very informative

https://thesaker.is/ukraine-escalates-an-armed-conflict-on-donbass/

I am still here virtually every day but of late I've kept my mouth shut in regards to Novorossiya.

The person we met did, however, move me to the point I had to write about the person.

We also speak often to most of those we got out in late summer, fall and early winter of '14 and all are doing well. One husband has been killed in the fighting, all the other husbands were wounded to one extent or another but all are back to duty. The 5 orphans are still under our protective wing.

i have massive respect for what you and your family is doing Auslander ... you are a saint .... i also have massive respect for the defenders of Donbass and the people of Krim in reclaiming their place back in Mother Russia's bosom i am a massive believer in self determination ... i just hope sooner rather than later the fighting ends and the entire NovoRossiya is returned to Russia

[quote="Godric"

i have massive respect for what you and your family is doing Auslander ... you are a saint  .... i also have massive respect for the defenders of Donbass and the people of Krim in reclaiming their place back in Mother Russia's bosom i am a massive believer in self  determination  ... i just hope sooner rather than later the fighting ends and the entire NovoRossiya is returned to Russia[/quote]

Thank you, Godric. We did what we could, everything we could and very quietly, only Church and a very few of 'them' knew at first.

We support Novorossiya to the hilt and always will. We have a lot of friends up there and many friends from down here volunteered to go north and fight to help Donbas. We hope and pray that in the not too distant future this war will be won by Novorossiya and the Republic will join Russian Federation although that joining will take a while to be official.

http://tass.com/world/952879/amp

Former Ukrainian president Kuchma gives hard facts of reality in Ukraine.

Pretty sad but they have themselves to blame.

There's a glimmer of hope


Opinion: Donbass will become Russian in less than a year

(google trans. I just had to tidy up a couple phrases)

http://voicesevas.ru/news/32401-mnenie-donbass-stanet-rossiyskim-menee-chem-cherez-god.html


As the vice speaker of the Senate Yuri Vorobyov said at a meeting of the Committee for Public Support of Residents of Southeast of Ukraine, in March the Federation Council will hold a conference on the fate of the Russian cultural space, where the issue of the existence of the People's Democratic Republic of Donetsk and the People's Republic of Lugansk will be raised. "The path to the rapprochement of the peoples of Russia and Ukraine will be long and difficult," the senator said, but immediately made the reservation: "I'm not talking about the Donbass." Well, the question of the status of Donetsk and Lugansk will be decided before the election of the Russian president?

Actually, Vorobiev has not discovered America: the well-informed Kiev experts close to the government, in particular, political scientists Vadim Karasev and Andrei Yermolayev, repeatedly informed the Kremlin about the final definition of the people's republics before the presidential elections. At the same time, Karasev believes that Moscow "will not annex the Donbass, but recognizes its independent status." In turn, Ermolaev believes that the final decision in the Kremlin has not yet been accepted, and the republics are equally likely to "reunite with Russia" and recognize their independence from Ukraine. But, one way or another, the republics will be in suspense in the worst case until the spring of next year.

In May, the Director of the Pentagon's Military Intelligence Agency, General Vincent Stewart, reporting to the Senate Armed Services Committee, acknowledged that Russia would not allow Ukraine to solve the Donbas problem by force, and for that, most likely, would recognize the independence of the People's Republics. Although, according to General Stewart, to annex the Donbass on the example of Crimea, President Vladimir Putin, most likely, he will not risk not to aggravate relations with the West.

In turn, Russian experts agree that the Donbass problem will be resolved in the coming months. Liberal political scientist Alexander Morozov believes that "it is already unprofitable to" keep the disputed territories in suspended status to the Kremlin ", and so, shortly before the elections (which, by the way, will be held on the eve of the reunion of the Crimea with Russia), Lugansk and Donetsk are waiting for" reunification in the Crimean pattern ". And political analyst Mikhail Remizov (advisor to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin) is convinced: "It is very important to show to the inhabitants of Ukraine, those who really have given everything in the struggle, that Russia will eventually come to the rescue." So, there must be a reunion. In the worst case, recognition of independence.

Alexander Artishchenko


My comment: Inevitable. As Kiev will never abide by Minsk agreements and will go on to martial law and renewed full scale hostilities. Preserving a united federal Ukraine is impossible without overthrowing the regime in Kiev and reversing the brainwashing, wich would recquire dictatorial measures to stomp the West. Partition of the country is unavoidable.

Federal Government Eases Restrictions On Military Mission In Ukraine

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/06/14/feds-ukraine-mission-restrictions_n_17099746.html

OTTAWA — The military has quietly expanded its footprint in Ukraine, with commanders being given free rein to send their troops anywhere — except where they might run into Russian forces or separatist rebels.

Canada first deployed about 200 troops to Ukraine in the summer of 2015 to help train government forces in their fight against Russian-backed separatists in the eastern part of the country.

But the Canadians were required to stay in the western half of Ukraine, far from the conflict that has continued to rage over the intervening two years, leaving more than 10,000 people dead.

Mission set to expire in 2019

Those restrictions were eased when the government extended the mission for another two years in March, the mission's commander, Lt.-Col. Mark Lubiniecki, tells The Canadian Press.

While Canadian troops are still required to stay away from the border with Russia and the fighting in eastern Ukraine, Lubiniecki says the rest of the country is fair game.

Lubiniecki says that change has added flexibility to the Canadian mission, which has so far trained more than 4,000 Ukrainian troops, many of whom have since been deployed into the conflict zone.

The training mission is set to expire in 2019.

Despite a heralded "harvest truce" during the coming months, the war does not subside. Though there is speculation that a major offensive by the Ukraine regime would not take place until autumn at the earliest, and more likely for spring next year, if the preconditions of martial law and a mass call up are to be satisfied, it's admitted that if neccessary attack could take place as early September 1st. Or during August.




antimaydan.info

google trans,

2017-06-22 23:15


DNR news today. Latest news of the Donetsk People's Republic 2016 ,
0:04

Summary from the militia with the call sign "Scream" .

"The shelling of the settlements of the Dnieper by the APU is recorded on all sectors of the front, the intensity of the fire remains high.On the outskirts of Gorlovka, Ukrainian security forces fired from automatic grenade launchers and heavy machine guns in the village of Zhovanka.The Ukrainian army is active in the Donetsk sector of the front, under the fire of Ukrainian artillery was Chervonogvardeysky district of Makeevka , As well as the townships of Spartak, Trudovsky and Alexandrovka, resulting in damage to about ten civilian buildings. At night, as a result of shelling The power transmission lines that feed the station of the first ascent of the Yuzhnodonbass water conduit were damaged.The station's system was transferred to the use of reserve power supplies, reconstruction work is under way.Position battles with the use of artillery and mortars are carried out in the vicinity of the Yasinovat checkpoint and the former airport.On Yasinovatoy was noticed the Ukrainian Reconnaissance drone.

The Ukrainian side provokes positional battles in the Mariupol direction of the front. Eight apartment houses were damaged as a result of artillery fire of the APU of Zaichenko village in Novoazovsky District.

The Kiev siloviki continue to transfer heavy weapons to the line of demarcation. The reconnaissance of the army of the DNR detected 122-mm howitzer D-30 in the vicinity of the Novgorodskoye settlement. In addition, the arrival in the area of ​​the village of Semenovka to the battery of 152-mm guns "Hyacinth-B" was recorded.

As a result of the previous day, on June 21, the Armed Forces violated the ceasefire regime 41 times, firing at 16 settlements of the Republic. In the village of Krutaya Balka, an apartment house burned down, in the village of Aleksandrovka three private houses were burnt down, one house was damaged in Zaitsevo. "


Chronicle of Donbass: AFU surrounded Gorlovka,

2017-06-22 21:34

Apparently, something serious and ambitious is planned in the Donbas, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gradually "crawling" along the entire front, while simultaneously preparing several bridgeheads for rapid breakthroughs.

The defense departments of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics constantly report that the Ukrainian Armed Forces not only draw the equipment to the line of contact of the sides in the Donbass, but also actively move it along the entire front. Most likely, Kiev wants to confuse such actions with Donetsk and Lugansk in order to inflict a powerful dissecting blow in several directions.

Potential points for the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are Gorlovka-Donetsk, Mariupol and Pervomaisk (LNR) directions. By the way, the geography of ATOshnikov's activity coincides with those predicted by the Ukrainian media. Thus, the UCSM report that, most likely, the Kiev security forces will launch the offensive precisely on the Pervomaysk direction, since in this sector of the front the siloviki have been "very loud" lately.

"What is interesting, the servicemen themselves unofficially say that in two or three months much will clear up at the front. And it will become clear in our favor, "it was informed.

Judging by the recent development of the situation on the front line in the Donbas, something serious and large is planned, because Ukrainian security forces are constantly moving forward, seizing new areas of the so-called "gray zone", while simultaneously preparing several bridgeheads for rapid breakthroughs ahead Immediately in several directions.

The APU technique near Gorlovka

As the Ministry of Defense of the Donetsk People's Republic reported today, the positions of the Ukrainian security forces near Gorlovka and Yasinovata are reinforced with D-30 howitzer and Hyacinth-B towing cannons. It is worth noting that this is not the first such statement about the movement of the APU technique near Gorlovka.

For example, on Gorlovskoe direction near the village of Novgorodskoe six kilometers from the front line the location of three D-30 howitzers was revealed, and in the village of Semenovka, 17 towed "Hyacinth-B" cannons were found 17 kilometers west of Yasinovatoy.

Ukraine’s finance ministry files appeal to London Court against Russia in $3 bln debt case

More:
http://tass.com/economy/953111http://tass.com/economy/953111

On Friday, Kiev Region Council appealed to the Verkhovna Rada asking it to regulate the procedure of impeaching the president to kick off the process of removing the current leader from his office

More:
http://tass.com/world/953119

https://www.rt.com/news/394057-ukraine-us-arms-poroshenko/

Ukraine ‘almost reached’ arms supplies agreement with US – Poroshenko

Seems the deal is pretty much at this point conditional on Syria developments... specially if Russia lets the Turks loose on the Kurds.

Wondering how significant of a boost this could be to Ukrops.... I mean majority of the hardware can be countered by Russia on the other end but still...

==================================

Also...don't like the idea of settling for the Republics and leaving Ukraine to the U.S. It's a win for them. Do a coup, let a civil war rage, then partition and keep half - profitable business. NATO will set camp if the thing is settled on the Republics....you can take that to the bank.

So, no, a bleeding Ukraine, until regime change friendly to Russia is achieved is the long term, safe, strategic move. It will however be costly short term to achieve it - very costly. But nothing is easy. The republics, that's the easy way out. Seems however Russia is out of ideas and will to fight for Ukraine. All things considered, since the start, Russia was already on the loosing end and it happened as a result of its weakness not its strength in post-soviet space.

Central Asia, Asia and the M.E are Russia's future. Europe should be seen as what it's, a battleground full of snakes.

There is not and will not be an arms deal between US and Orckand, anything spoken of otherwise is just Porkies wet dream, pure and simple.

Ukraine almost reached...........
The key word is "almost" .