The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

Oh dear, what an admission! What about that 10,000 strong army? Wonder if this comment was cleared with Poro or is the guy now looking for a new job?

A resounding statement is made: Ukraine can not prove the presence of Russian troops in the Donbass.

Legally, Ukraine, over three years of the war, has been unable to prove the presence of the Russian army in the Donbass.*

Such a loud statement came in an interview with Apostrophe from Georgy Tuka, Deputy Minister for Temporary Occupied Territories and internally displaced persons.

It means that, since there are no Russian authorities in the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, that are not controlled by Ukraine, it is legally impossible to talk about occupation.

"We can not yet, despite all the efforts, legally prove the presence in the Donbass of the regular Russian army," Tuka said, noting that the recent decision of the court in The Hague affirmed it.

"We can stitch a hundred embroideries a day on ourselves, but this is not the solution of the question, it's absolutely purely emotional stuff, that can be allowed only by the deputies working for their own electorate, deceiving and manipulating them," the deputy minister added, stressing that there are international terms and concepts that Ukraine must operate on to establish in the courts the facts of Russia's invasion of Ukrainian territory.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/07/ukrainian-administrator-tuka-in-three.html

Something is going down in Krasnogorvka. Ukrops report that the NAF have broken through VSU lines there and the VSU have taken at least 5 casualities.

Links etc? Sources? Map shows nothing but it's a couple hours later. Could have been some minor line straightening or more likely it was orcs fighting amongst themselves and blaming the dead on NAF.

auslander wrote:Links etc? Sources? Map shows nothing but it's a couple hours later. Could have been some minor line straightening or more likely it was orcs fighting amongst themselves and blaming the dead on NAF.

Dubious

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://topwar.ru/121090-v-kieve-zayavili-o-proryve-opolcheniem-poziciy-vsu.html&usg=ALkJrhjBQb5R7Kan4rYGBKsMB7WARWcPIg

Probably a distraction from this one

https://topwar.ru/121087-patrul-smm-obse-popal-pod-obstrel-v-rayone-yasinovatoy.html

But we will have to wait to hear more if anything on both stories.

JohninMK wrote:They were only able to catch Tillerson in a corridor on the way out, either that or they've already sold off the smart furniture.

About all he said was (loosely summerised) "its Russia's fault and up to them to solve Minsk. Bye"

Good Lord. If that isn't irony, I don't know what is!

JohninMK wrote:

eehnie wrote:
The US does not give advanced weapons to others, except in very few cases (Israel, UK, and little more).

The US loves to put some weapons in the territory of others, but inside own bases under own control with own soldiers.

The US is not ready to assume to send own soldiers to Ukraine. If it would be ready, would be doing it.

The US is happy with some goals:
- To waste the Ukranian weapons arsenals in a war vs Russia and not vs NATO.
- To have access to the economic predation of Ukraine to favore the interests of the US elites.

But also failed in other goals:
- In the wasting process of the Ukranian arsenals, they did almost zero damage to the Russian arsenals.
- The US failed in the bid to weaken Russia with the sanctions. With the accession of Crimea Russia even gets reinforced.
- The US failed in Crimea.
- The US failed in the Donbass.
- Europe will not pay the restoration of Ukraine like the US wanted.

The war in Ukraine made an improvement for booth big powers, the alone loser, Ukraine.

To move the current balance of forces would have a very important cost in money for the US. To break the balance in favor of the US and Ukraine would require an effort close to WWIII. Everyone knows it.

I am sure that you will correct me if I'm wrong, not unknown I might add, but I thought that all the discussions on the US supplying Ukraine with weapons has been with reference to lethal weapons. I don't recall anyone in the US referring to advanced weapons, which are not necessarily the same thing.

Also it is probably a bit early to declare that the US has failed in Ukraine. It is becoming closer to NATO, is an interesting training ground and the US probably believes that Russia is operating with one hand behind its back in Syria due to Ukraine and vica versa

I think you underplay the economic impact especially in some the rather key financial arenas.

- Ukraine is now nicely in debt to the IMF and other Western creditors. This is money that has cost the West nothing, they just 'printed' it, yet they now have a lien over real Ukrainian assets.

- the other assets that they would really like to get hold of like farmland, oil etc are now worth a fraction of what they were so, once Ukraine is further softened up and the law is changed, purchasers will appear at the 10c on the $ bargain pricing.

- Ukraine is very rapidly being turned into an agricultural country, removing an industrial competitor.

- very large numbers of Ukrainians have fled west and are now available at low cost, semi slave, labour rates in the EU.

I recon the jury is out on this.

The biggest fail of the coup in Ukraine, is 1.the loss of Crimea. imho. then the loss of Donbass, and then the loss of people.
Lots of losses. loss of manufacturing...pensions cut, higher prices,

Neutrality wrote:Something is going down in Krasnogorvka. Ukrops report that the NAF have broken through VSU lines there and the VSU have taken at least 5 casualities.

I just translated report from Yura Sumy in my blog and commented. you can go to the original

The Novorussians took a Ukrop position NW of Donetsk in a surprise attack, I think it was a platoon sized strongpoint, and have been holding it against counterattacks. The ukrops got a beating with a few dozens of casualties between the initial losses and later counterattacks and now they cannot fire mortars into Donetsk

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2017/07/22/combates-en-krasnogorovka/

Ispan wrote:

Neutrality wrote:Something is going down in Krasnogorvka. Ukrops report that the NAF have broken through VSU lines there and the VSU have taken at least 5 casualities.

I just translated report from Yura Sumy in my blog and commented. you can go to the original

The Novorussians took a Ukrop position NW of Donetsk in a surprise attack, I think it was a platoon sized strongpoint, and have been holding it against counterattacks. The ukrops got a beating with a few dozens of casualties between the initial losses and later counterattacks and now they cannot fire mortars into Donetsk

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2017/07/22/combates-en-krasnogorovka/

You mean this report?

http://naspravdi.info/novosti/boy-pod-krasnogorovkoy-vsu-mogli-byt-razgromleny

Blogger doesn't write that they are currently holding it though. They took it (fairly easy) and retreated. When the Ukrops were in the process of recovering it, they again got hit (possibly by mortar fire) taking casualities.
Guy also says that VSN were using 120mm artillery and tanks which is doubtful. If they did, OSCE would be screaming about violations the next day.

Neutrality wrote:
Blogger doesn't write that they are currently holding it though. They took it (fairly easy) and retreated.

Already reported in credible other sources that they are holding it, though officially NAF command denies it
That's the catch, I figure out assault force took it and was relieved by a holding force. Thats why Yura Sumy reported that the NAF retreated, while Cassad misunderstood the action and believed it was only a artillery duel where the ukrops got hit.

Guy also says that VSN were using 120mm artillery and tanks which is doubtful. If they did, OSCE would be screaming about violations the next day.

It was 120mm mortars and don't be naive. OSCE knows what's going on, everyday there are artillery exchanges and tank fire from the ukrop side. It's in everybody interest to play down the fighting and the casualties. so you know, I quoted an Ukrop colonel that admitted on TV they suffer "serious casualties from the powerful enemy artillery"

Novorussian army buy US made RQ-11 UAVs from Ukrainian army.

medo wrote:

Novorussian army buy US made RQ-11 UAVs from Ukrainian army.

That will go down well in Washington

Heck, I'd estimate that more than 70% of Novorossiya hardware, weapons and ordinance came from the orcs one way or another. Purchases have been going on since the good Polkovnik arrived in Slavyansk back in April of '14 and haven't stopped since.

Poland in the title but this is 100% article on Ukraine depopulation

Who Will We Blame For Genocide Then?' Ukraine's Depopulation Gets Poles Anxious

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201707231055804535-poland-ukraine-population-decline/

The Americans are "going to get involved" with achieving peace in Eastern Ukraine. They are working on getting a "strategic understanding on what happened" so that Ukrainian sovereignty maybe returned over the Donbas.

http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=767920

Well, judging how stupid the US has been in Syria, it seems that they want to put boots on the ground because no one in eastern Ukraine wants to be part of Kiev rule. So either this is all nonsense talk or they are willing to go all out in killing civilians or starting a full fledged war in Ukraine, as Russia won't back down on LDNR

miketheterrible wrote:Well, judging how stupid the US has been in Syria, it seems that they want to put boots on the ground because no one in eastern Ukraine wants to be part of Kiev rule. So either this is all nonsense talk or they are willing to go all out in killing civilians or starting a full fledged war in Ukraine, as Russia won't back down on LDNR

The problem for Russia is that they backed down on Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson and Kharkov. This leaves Moldova and Transdnistria open for taking in future.

KiloGolf wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Well, judging how stupid the US has been in Syria, it seems that they want to put boots on the ground because no one in eastern Ukraine wants to be part of Kiev rule. So either this is all nonsense talk or they are willing to go all out in killing civilians or starting a full fledged war in Ukraine, as Russia won't back down on LDNR

The problem for Russia is that they backed down on Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson and Kharkov. This leaves Moldova and Transdnistria open for taking in future.

I don't think they were anticipating the west to fill the void that is Ukraine with money to keep it afloat this long.

Now the Novorussians will have no choice but to be prepared. I doubt they will go into eastern Ukraine to kill people, but they probably will increase support for Ukraine itself to go in and do that job. Judging by the article.

Or it could all be bullshit from interfax. Who knows. But US lost Syria so they may attempt Ukraine.

Last time when USA sent helmets and Hummers​ to Kiev, Russia sent Grads and T-72s to rebels.

And that's without counting "North Wind"

The moment Moscow even smells USA honestly considering direct​ involvement, NAF will be marching on Kiev, full Bagration style

Current plan is to quietly bleed Ukraine to death

But plans can change at moment's notice

PapaDragon wrote:
Last time when USA sent helmets and Hummers​ to Kiev, Russia sent Grads and T-72s to rebels.

And that's without counting "North Wind"

The moment Moscow even smells USA honestly considering direct​ involvement, NAF will be marching on Kiev, full Bagration style

Current plan is to quietly bleed Ukraine to death

But plans can change at moment's notice

Russia did say they draw the line at donbass. So if US attempts anything, I agree, Moscow will be in spot first.

But I think news may be Ukrainian nonsense since I can't find any other source on it in Russia. News front would be all over this. Interfax has been pretty pro Ukrainian since maiden.  So who knows. Could be US lip service to Kiev.

miketheterrible wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Last time when USA sent helmets and Hummers​ to Kiev, Russia sent Grads and T-72s to rebels.

And that's without counting "North Wind"

The moment Moscow even smells USA honestly considering direct​ involvement, NAF will be marching on Kiev, full Bagration style

Current plan is to quietly bleed Ukraine to death

But plans can change at moment's notice

Russia did say they draw the line at donbass. So if US attempts anything, I agree, Moscow will be in spot first.

But I think news may be Ukrainian nonsense since I can't find any other source on it in Russia. News front would be all over this. Interfax has been pretty pro Ukrainian since maiden.  So who knows. Could be US lip service to Kiev.

It is most likely the truth as the US did appoint this guy to act as a special diplomat to get involved and Moscow did welcome them taking the interest
His job supposedly was to get the Ukrainians to start implementation of Minsk. He has arrived in Ukraine and after meetings in Kiev is now touring the occupied or unoccupied (your preference) zone of the Donbas. Claims he is going to contact the Donbas leaders to talk to them. Do not be surprised if that turns out to be someone appointed by Kiev.

PS: apparently managed the John McCain Foundation for something or another that John McCain actually withdraw his participation in for some reason. The blind leading the blind.

franco wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Last time when USA sent helmets and Hummers​ to Kiev, Russia sent Grads and T-72s to rebels.

And that's without counting "North Wind"

The moment Moscow even smells USA honestly considering direct​ involvement, NAF will be marching on Kiev, full Bagration style

Current plan is to quietly bleed Ukraine to death

But plans can change at moment's notice

Russia did say they draw the line at donbass. So if US attempts anything, I agree, Moscow will be in spot first.

But I think news may be Ukrainian nonsense since I can't find any other source on it in Russia. News front would be all over this. Interfax has been pretty pro Ukrainian since maiden.  So who knows. Could be US lip service to Kiev.

It is most likely the truth as the US did appoint this guy to act as a special diplomat to get involved and Moscow did welcome them taking the interest
His job supposedly was to get the Ukrainians to start implementation of Minsk. He has arrived in Ukraine and after meetings in Kiev is now touring the occupied or unoccupied (your preference) zone of the Donbas. Claims he is going to contact the Donbas leaders to talk to them. Do not be surprised if that turns out to be someone appointed by Kiev.

PS: apparently managed the John McCain Foundation for something or another that John McCain actually withdraw his participation in for some reason. The blind leading the blind.

Sorry, sometimes it is hard to understand your poetry. But I'm assuming you mean he will have some meaningless conversation with people not actually tied to the donbass regions that are wanting to separate and that you agree that this will be nothing other than lip service.  Is that correct?

miketheterrible wrote:

franco wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Last time when USA sent helmets and Hummers​ to Kiev, Russia sent Grads and T-72s to rebels.

And that's without counting "North Wind"

The moment Moscow even smells USA honestly considering direct​ involvement, NAF will be marching on Kiev, full Bagration style

Current plan is to quietly bleed Ukraine to death

But plans can change at moment's notice

Russia did say they draw the line at donbass. So if US attempts anything, I agree, Moscow will be in spot first.

But I think news may be Ukrainian nonsense since I can't find any other source on it in Russia. News front would be all over this. Interfax has been pretty pro Ukrainian since maiden.  So who knows. Could be US lip service to Kiev.

It is most likely the truth as the US did appoint this guy to act as a special diplomat to get involved and Moscow did welcome them taking the interest
His job supposedly was to get the Ukrainians to start implementation of Minsk. He has arrived in Ukraine and after meetings in Kiev is now touring the occupied or unoccupied (your preference) zone of the Donbas. Claims he is going to contact the Donbas leaders to talk to them. Do not be surprised if that turns out to be someone appointed by Kiev.

PS: apparently managed the John McCain Foundation for something or another that John McCain actually withdraw his participation in for some reason. The blind leading the blind.

Sorry, sometimes it is hard to understand your poetry. But I'm assuming you mean he will have some meaningless conversation with people not actually tied to the donbass regions that are wanting to separate and that you agree that this will be nothing other than lip service.  Is that correct?

Something like that, I'm afraid that I'm as subtle as a brick to the head. He claims he will talk to Donbas leaders next, I'm just not sure who he will actually communicate with. And sending someone over associated in any way with John McCain to search for peace...boggles my mind.

franco wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

franco wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Last time when USA sent helmets and Hummers​ to Kiev, Russia sent Grads and T-72s to rebels.

And that's without counting "North Wind"

The moment Moscow even smells USA honestly considering direct​ involvement, NAF will be marching on Kiev, full Bagration style

Current plan is to quietly bleed Ukraine to death

But plans can change at moment's notice

Russia did say they draw the line at donbass. So if US attempts anything, I agree, Moscow will be in spot first.

But I think news may be Ukrainian nonsense since I can't find any other source on it in Russia. News front would be all over this. Interfax has been pretty pro Ukrainian since maiden.  So who knows. Could be US lip service to Kiev.

It is most likely the truth as the US did appoint this guy to act as a special diplomat to get involved and Moscow did welcome them taking the interest
His job supposedly was to get the Ukrainians to start implementation of Minsk. He has arrived in Ukraine and after meetings in Kiev is now touring the occupied or unoccupied (your preference) zone of the Donbas. Claims he is going to contact the Donbas leaders to talk to them. Do not be surprised if that turns out to be someone appointed by Kiev.

PS: apparently managed the John McCain Foundation for something or another that John McCain actually withdraw his participation in for some reason. The blind leading the blind.

Sorry, sometimes it is hard to understand your poetry. But I'm assuming you mean he will have some meaningless conversation with people not actually tied to the donbass regions that are wanting to separate and that you agree that this will be nothing other than lip service.  Is that correct?

Something like that, I'm afraid that I'm as subtle as a brick to the head. He claims he will talk to Donbas leaders next, I'm just not sure who he will actually communicate with. And sending someone over associated in any way with John McCain to search for peace...boggles my mind.  

Agreed. I imagine the Russians are going to watch this one like a hawk. And the Novorussians are far more hawkish. so lets see how the meeting turns out. They (US) may give shitting ultimatums that the Donbass wont agree to and then it is back to square one.

One thing I noticed that everyone, including some people I once respected, view that GDP growth = economic growth and development which leads to prosperity. I have argued but to no avail.

Essentially, what people are saying is that Ukraine sees a 2% growth this year.  Very uncertain about this number, I try to dig up were the numbers are being calculated from and it's from world bank. So I pondered and try to find if said growth takes into account what regions of Ukraine? Does it include Donbass and Crimea? Which one is back at home at Russia (and sees massive growth for first time in decades) and Donbass being more or less gone from Kiev but has good deals on export of various goods like coal and technology? But I failed to find the appropriate answer.  So I assumed they don't include these regions. So I tried to go over what exactly is it that Ukraine sees growth in? Only thing that comes to mind is military production as they pumped more money into procurement of weapons to continue on their slaughter, and agriculture growth since, well, you know - all that is left of Ukraine is agrarian (nothing entirely wrong in that, Russia is also headed to a very robust agrarian nation). But in general, the average person is much poorer than before, and debt is through the ceiling.

But, one thing to always remember, GDP growth doesn't translate to growing standards of living. This is evident in many countries. What it means that they are heavily emphasising growth with money being lent to them by IMF.  The Kiev authorities are stuck in a continuous cycle now of having to obtain debt just in order to help pay off debt.

There is a real issue brewing in Ukraine and many in the west, even in east, are completely ignorant of it. Project Ukraine is to make it another debt slave state.