Syrian War: News #12

calm wrote:SAA will not strike Tanaf base from ground or air to allow US SOF to withdrew safely ,however will keep advancing
https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/865702411507257344

it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.

KomissarBojanchev wrote:

it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.

Why is it lunacy for the legitimate government of Syria and affiliated forces from capturing land inside Syria?

calm wrote:Axis Of resistance and other jihadists do not care about some airstrikes. Americans get ready suicidal Shias are coming toward Tanaf.
Cous what to expect from this guys, and they are marching toward Tanaf. So yeah, it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.

.........

par far wrote:

eehnie wrote:

par far wrote:

eehnie wrote:

par far wrote:

calm wrote:Only thing Russia can do is to mistakenly bomb al-Tanf, again. But it's looks like Russia wasn't involve in this offensive. So SAA is alone? We will see...


US confirmation of a strike on Syrian Military near Al-Tanf in Syria

Russia will involved in this.

I expect the same, but at the right time. The right timing is very important. It is a very difficult goal to achieve, the battle would be very hard just now.

What time do think will be right eehnie? We know that Russian Special Forces are already embedded with the SAA in that area and Iran has probably sent unit's to participate in this operation(whenever there are loud calls to put sanctions on Iran, that is when you know Iran is doing something.) The big question is how will the VKS respond? Does anyone have information about how many Fighter Jets Russia has in Syria right now?

Syria, surely under advice of Russia, selected well the timing to cut the pass of the ISIS with Turkey. To have direct land link between Iran and Syria is not an important reason now, because they achieved it more to the North. The Kurd territory is friendly enough for Iran, for land supplies until Syria.

http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/a735cf3c-b765-4067-a0d4-7a9de2786811/%E2%80%98Kurdistan-thanks-Iran-for-help-against-IS%E2%80%99

Kurdistan thanks Iran for help against IS

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region (Kurdistan24) – There is no doubt that Tehran helped the Kurdistan Region first in 2014 when the Islamic State (IS) attacked the Region, said a senior Kurdish official on Wednesday.

Following the emergence of IS in June 2014 in northern Iraq, the jihadists started to attack the Kurdistan Region in August.

On Tuesday, the President of Iran Hassan Rouhani stated in a speech presented in the Kurdish city of Mahabad in Iranian Kurdistan (Rojhalat) that Iran rescued Erbil, the regional capital of the Kurdistan Region from IS.

He stated that if Iran did not help the Region, Erbil would have fallen under IS control.

In a statement to Kurdistan24 on Wednesday, the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region Nechirvan Barzani stated that Kurdistan is thankful for Iran’s help.

“There is no doubt that they [Iran] helped us [Kurdistan Region] at the beginning of Da’esh’s attacks on the Region,” Barzani said, using the Arabic pejorative term for IS.

“We thank them for the help they provided us,” he continued. “Certainly, the threat was huge when Da’esh attacked the Kurdistan Region.”

Barzani noted that he did not want to go into detail about whether Erbil would have fallen in the hands of the insurgents if Iran had not helped.

“All I can say is that we respect their reaction, and we thank them for all the help and support they provided to the Kurdistan Region,” Barzani concluded.

Kurdistan Region shares over 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) of its border with IS in northern Iraq. Peshmerga forces have been successful in pushing the jihadists back since June 2014, and they have been marked as one of the most efficient ground forces in defeating IS.

I expect Syria and Russia to select also the right timing in the South. Which conditions can be key for it:

1.- I expect Syria reinforces its positions before. For it I expect them to continue focused eliminating pockets that require important amounts of troops out of the frontline. I expect also some new unit.

2.- I expect Syria to try that the place loses part of its strategic importance. Just today, lots of resources of the rebels and their allies will be focused in the defense of the place. How I would expect to achieve it? I expect Syria and Iraq continue winning more territory to the ISIS more to the North, North-East, both by the Syrian side and by the side of Iraq. I think Syria needs before, to reduce the importance of the potential pocket that can be created.

3.- I expect Syria to advance in the air-space denial for the allies of the opposition in the area (US and more).

But also I expect Syria and Russia to take some advantage before. I expect Syria and Russia try to reduce the size of the pass, making unsafe and easier to control and to eliminate the convoys that use the pass to reinforce the rebels, including ISIS.

Good points eehnie, do you think that in the coming weeks, Russia will increase it support for Syria?

Be-12
AT-T
Yak-38 (There is only some incomplete unit, nothing to reach Syria)
T-64

100mm 2A19/2A29 (M)T-12

L-39
Iveco LMV (In Russia, in the future I expect to see them only in the Russian security forces)

calm wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
What we seem to have now in Syria is conflict between Russia and Iran.

Russia wants to secure E.Aleppo and push towards Deir ez Zorr. This will allow them to pretty much secure all pro gov. population centers and then refocus on Idlib.

There is also matter of principle. They abhor leaving people encircled and besieged.

Iran on the other hand seem to be focused on fighting completely different war and are using current "truce" in Idlib to try to pull another attempt at securing connection with Lebanon.

So now we have two currents in Syrian government. Pro Iran and pro Russia.

This results in Iranians forcing SAA to divert troops towards the south to push their Shia Crescent project and to secure more influence in post war Syria. Which is idiotic on several levels because not only are they incapable of matching Russian muscle but securing Syria like Russia is pushing for will result in connection to Lebanon either way.

Problem is that this approach will not give them full control afterwards. This results in them diverting SAA into this southern detour while hoping that if SHTF Russia will do their fighting for them. Russia not being stupid simply decided to let them get fucked back to their senses.

Problem is that this results in operation to lift siege of DeZ being delayed. This is why there are still no big movements on that front yet. Russia managed to to free up troops for this op with those deescalation zones but Iranians, being parasites as usual, immediately started fucking up again.

And DeZ get to suffer bit longer as a result.

That's right, nice analysis.

PapaDragon wrote:

calm wrote:Axis Of resistance and other jihadists do not care about some airstrikes. Americans get ready suicidal Shias are coming toward Tanaf.
Cous what to expect from this guys, and they are marching toward Tanaf. So yeah, it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.

.........

So they are suicidal when they need to wage Jihad for a piece of empty desert but not when they need to save their own civilians? Then they run like rabbits?

Classy...

Well whatever it takes get the Deir ez Zorr offensive finally going I guess...

Also on that pic it says "DOWN..." with what?

KomissarBojanchev wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

calm wrote:Axis Of resistance and other jihadists do not care about some airstrikes. Americans get ready suicidal Shias are coming toward Tanaf.
Cous what to expect from this guys, and they are marching toward Tanaf. So yeah, it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.

.........

So they are suicidal when they need to wage Jihad for a piece of empty desert but not when they need to save their own civilians? Then they run like rabbits?

Classy...

Well whatever it takes get the Deir ez Zorr offensive finally going I guess...

Also on that pic it says "DOWN..." with what?

Killing sunni terrorists that are US backed is protecting civilians. Israel supporting ISIS from air is endangering civilians. Разумеш?

par far wrote:"SYRIAN ARMY IS IN 20 KM FROM AL-TANF TOWN CONTROLLED BY US-LED FORCES – REPORTS."

"The SAA also captured the Khabrat Zarkaa area south of the Damascus-Baghdad road. Kharbat Zarrkkaa is located i about 50 km from the al-Tanf border crossing. According to pro-government sources, Russian Su-30 fighters escorted government forces in the area."

I am going to guess that means SU 30SM.

http://cdn.airplane-pictures.net/images/uploaded-images/2015/3/21/537592.jpg




https://southfront.org/syrian-army-is-in-20-km-from-al-tanf-town-controlled-by-us-led-forces-reports/

PapaDragon wrote:So no I don't understand what the fuck is so important down south that requires those civilians to stay encircled even one hour more than necessary

eehnie wrote:
Lol, pure trolling. Pure non-sense. Conceding the Kurds to the US and painting them as opposed to Russia and Iran, worrying by the advance near Israel (see South of Syria). Well, too obvious pro-Israeli propaganda, like always from him.

The quiet deployment of roughly 1,000 Muslim special forces from Russia’s southern regions shows that Moscow is serious about upping its ground game in Syria.

Moscow is actually expanding its role in Syria. Russian officials announced major expansions to Russian military bases in the country while the number of private contractors fighting on the Kremlin’s behalf also swelled...

...This growing presence allows the Kremlin to have a greater role in shaping events on the ground as it digs in for the long term. Such forces could prove vital in curtailing any action taken by the Assad regime that would undermine Moscow’s wider interests in the Middle East while offering a highly effective method for the Kremlin to project power at a reduced political cost.


...As Moscow’s footprint deepens, North Caucasian special forces have taken on increasingly important tasks across Syria, from guarding Syrian Kurdish units against Turkish incursions in Manbij to ensuring the success of negotiated rebel evacuations on the outskirts of Damascus. The growing role of the brigades demonstrates a desire on Russia’s part to wield greater influence over areas of Syria it deems crucial, particularly in the face of occasional tension with its Syrian and Iranian allies. Although outward appearances suggest solidarity, Moscow has occasionally clashed with both Damascus and Tehran. Perhaps the most publicized example of this uneasy alliance came during the late stages of the Aleppo campaign. Iranian officials were reportedly incensed with the terms of a cease-fire brokered for the city by Russia and Turkey in December 2016 that were imposed without their input. Iran later intentionally scuttled the deal, using its Iraqi and Syrian proxy forces to resume fighting in Aleppo. Not coincidentally, Moscow’s first Chechen soldiers arrived in Syria within weeks of that event.

The importance for Moscow in being able to control unexpected events on the ground was highlighted in late January when rumors began to spread that Assad had suffered a stroke. Adding fuel to the fire, some opposition figures claimed that the Syrian president had flown to Beirut for treatment; Damascus uncharacteristically denied the claims instead of ignoring them, fueling the speculation. Amid the uncertainty, reports emerged that with Assad’s health failing, Iranian forces were posturing to install his brother Maher, who is rumored to not be among the Kremlin’s preferred list of successors. Within several days, Assad returned to Damascus and held a series of publicized meetings, calming the situation. But the incident highlighted the value for Moscow in having its own ground forces in the Syrian capital...

...The Ingush battalion, meanwhile, continues to function in Damascus, having been spotted in the center of the capital throughout April. There are signs that the Ingush battalion is becoming more involved in front-line action with rebel forces in the Syrian capital.

There has been a lot of media coverage claiming that Russia has requested the Lebanese Hezbollah to leave Syrian territory, speculation initiated following Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s announcement of the withdrawal of his men from the Lebanese border, with the exception of the outskirts of the city of Arsal. Nasrallah asked the Lebanese army to fill the vacuum from the Lebanese side (Hezbollah won’t pull out of the Syrian side) and that prompted some media and analysts to conclude that Moscow no longer wants Hezbollah to remain in the Levant. Is this theory close to reality?

The border area between Lebanon and Syria, controlled by Hezbollah and the Syrian army, is under the gaze of Israel because it represents Hezbollah’s new base:, it hosts Hezbollah “Al Ridwan” elite forces, and its strategic missile silos are dug into the mountains and fortified in the caves all along the 130 kilometre border area. The area was a heavy burden on the Hezbollah military apparatus, forcing it to create new roads, fortify dozens of sites and find adequate shelter for its strategic missiles – the M 600 and the new version of its Iran-made “Al-Fateh” missiles – inside the mountains. Moreover, Hezbollah has operated in the area for the last 3 years throughout the summer and the winter, even on peaks of up to 2,500 meters, a significant drain on its already significant monthly budget.

More than 500 al-Qaeda and rebel fighters were deployed in this same area, apart from the presence of ISIS (The “Islamic State” group). These forced Hezbollah to deploy at least 5,000 fighters just to that area. Additionally, Hezbollah used drones, set up dozens of ambushes and positioned IEDs to hunt down its enemies and tighten the control over a significantly difficult geographical area.

After many years of war, Hezbollah managed to control a large part of the region: this means al-Qaeda, ISIS and the rebels would have been left without any military gain had these decided to stay in the area.

When most Syrian areas along the borders with Lebanon -in the Qalamoun and Zabadani mainly- agreed a settlement with the Syrian leadership in Damascus; and (following the agreement of the parties in the war in Syria on the rebel side) agreed – under the auspices of Russia, Turkey and Iran – to “stop fighting and leave the area (only those willing to leave to Idlib, while many Syrians preferred to stay in their cities) it was no longer possible for rebels and jihadists to keep up the fight.

This coincides with the request of Moscow for the Hezbollah leadership to increase the number of “Ridwan” forces and to push these men towards the Syrian semi-desert steppe: that was possible for Hezbollah, following the end of the military operation in the border area.

Hezbollah’s military activity on the eastern chain was difficult and painful. Huge budgets were invested to allow men to operate and fight in the area. Today, however, the threat has almost ended. Most of the Hezbollah forces have moved to other areas inside Syria.

The “Ridwan” Hezbollah forces, along with hundreds of Russian special forces and the Syrian army and its proxies, are now fighting to recover the oil fields (exploited by Russia in Syria) and to stop the American-British-Jordanian project to create a “buffer zone” starting from the Suweida and Daraa governed territories and extending towards the Iraqi border, Deir al-Zour from Palmyra to Sukhna.

It is clear that the US – which supports the progress of the “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF) made up of Kurds and of Arab tribes under the Kurdish leadership in the northeast of Syria – is not yet ready to guide its proxies towards the city of Deir Al-Zour, besieged as it is by ISIS. ISIS is indeed crumbling in Iraq and Syria but not yet that weak in Deir Al-Zour province, and especially not in the Syrian Badia (steppe).

Russia, Damascus and their allies are headed towards Deir Al-Zour, regardless of the US-Kurdish forces’ plan to control the Syrian steppe and the city of Deir Al-Zour (which host large numbers of Syrian Army officers and soldiers, along with Hezbollah Special Forces). Moreover, Damascus has sent a clear signal to Amman, a threat that it would consider the Jordanian forces as enemies if these set foot on Syrian soil in support of the US and its Syrian proxies. This clear and direct menace stopped the American-British-Jordanian progress and has put these forces in an awkward position with the Damascus authorities.

The Hezbollah “Ridwan” Special Forces were therefore pushed into the battles of Deir Al-Zour, al-Sukhna, al-Raqqah, and Daraa in order to recover the area around these cities and locations, but above all, to spoil the US plans to occupy the North- east of Syria.

As for Russia, its forces and Generals are closely watching the Syrian battles, especially those waged by the Lebanese Hezbollah. Russian officers draw military lessons and know-how from the performance of the “Ridwan” special forces and the quality and effectiveness of the weapons and the tactics used, specially after Hezbollah’s accumulated experience in the long war with Israel and its multi-level wars in Syria where they faced forces pursuing a variety of well-developed methods and ideologies, and doctrinal.

Russia has never had a similar battle in its history, so there is a widespread interest expressed by a heavy presence of experts on all fronts. This is not only to seek air support and to participate in the fighting, but – indeed – also to watch the fights.

Hezbollah has succeeded in changing the equation in Syria in conjunction with the Russian and Syrian air forces and has carried out several major battles., the most important of which were the battles of Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and those on the Syrian-Lebanese borders (Al-Qalamoun and Zabadani), al-Quseyr, the various Lattakia axes, around Damascus at Qaboun, Barza, WadiBarada and Madaya.

Because the end of military operations on the Syrian-Lebanese border is nigh, Hezbollah has managed to direct more than 20,000 troops to other internal but strategic fronts. The fronts around Damascus and Zabadani also allowed more than 10,000 Syrian troops to be moved to “hotter” areas.

Sources connected with decision makers in Syria confirmed that Hezbollah is building up greater forces in Syria to reach an unprecedented level, supported by huge logistic supply lines to accompany the fighting force. Significant military plans are being prepared for after the forthcoming month of Ramadan to end the presence of al-Qaeda and ISIS militants around Arsal city. These militants will be offered the chance to leave and join Idlib or fight to the end on the Syrian-Lebanese border, an area excluded from the Astana-Kazakhstan negotiations.

If Hezbollah withdraws from the Lebanese border, it will not leave the Syrian side of the borders where it has established static positions, military training cities, and sites for its weapons involved in any forthcoming war with Israel. Syria has become directly involved in this particular Hezbollah-Israel conflict. Hezbollah has also introduced the concept of “the Syrian resistance” in the ideology,: this has become a reality that Israel will find difficult to ignore in the near future when the war in Syria ends.

The “Shiite Crescent,” which extends from Tehran – Baghdad -Damascus and continues to Beirut, is not related to a certain geographical line crossing through this or that capital, as some sources imagine. It is in fact a “project” that materialised with the US invasion to Iraq in 2003 and following the ISIS occupation of Mosul in 2014. These events strengthened this virtual link without weakening it at all. This indicates that only ending the Middle East conflicts will make long-term stability possible in the area. The presence of the US occupation forces in North and northeast Syria will only create more conflict, reminding everyone of the Iraqi insurgency memory regarding Mesopotamia. The United States is clearly unwilling or unable to learn from history.

Cyberspec wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:So no I don't understand what the fuck is so important down south that requires those civilians to stay encircled even one hour more than necessary

Opening the Baghdad-Damascus road...pretty important goal don't you agree?

.......
Amid the uncertainty, reports emerged that with Assad’s health failing, Iranian forces were posturing to install his brother Maher, who is rumored to not be among the Kremlin’s preferred list of successors. .....