Syrian War: News #13

Quite a good summary IMHO of the situation but too optimistic.

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/06/syria-summary-the-end-of-the-war-is-now-in-sight.html

Couple of interesting observations from the comments:

I'll only add one other supporting piece of evidence that the ISIS escapes were allowed to happen on purpose by the SDF. Note that they (or more precisely, CENTCOM) has started their scorched-earth total destruction of central Raqqa before they closed the southern border. There are surprisingly few Kurdish casualties (relatively speaking) for the current assault - a sure sign that they are herding civilians and ISIS with Marine artillery and aerial bombardment rather than with ground assaults. Makes me wonder what the Arabs from Raqqa are thinking as they watch their city leveled and burnt to the ground to 'save' it, all while CENTCOM herds ISIS to Palmyra or Deir EzZor for more havoc.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jun 14, 2017 3:06:07 PM

One other possible reason for holding Tanf, has to do with oil. After Erdogans juicy side-line of "exporting" "ISIS" oil into Turkey, was shut down by the Russians a couple of years ago, it was mentioned that there was still a supply line "to Jordan". (It was not clear exactly where this passed.)
If you google-earth "Tanf" there are several large objects that look tankers at the Tanf crossing. (Google is politically biaised and may "change" the photos)

So, the road through Tanf leads up to the Al Busairi Junction (4-ways), where one road goes to Damascus, one other north and the third goes towards Palmyra, BUT south of the mountains. (The Syrian Gov, attack being along the north of the same mountain range.) This last road would have enabled tankers to circumvent Palmyra and go directly to ISIS held oil wells. (A bit of cross- country desert couls also be imagined)
In other words, By holding Tanf, the US, UK and Norewegians were deliberately permitting a supply line to and from ISIS. Oil one way and arms the other?
The Gov. now has control of the Busairi crossing and a much bigger area around Palmyra, thus cutting ISIS off.
End line of the oil route would have been Jordan and probably Tel Aviv.

Posted by: stonebird | Jun 14, 2017 10:47:55 AM

Syrian Arab Army & allied forces reportedly in full control of Thawrah and Sfyan oil fields south of Tabqa city after expelling IS from area

https://mobile.twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/875020337750065152

arpakola wrote:
Sandstorm Hit Dier Ezoor This Time
God be With People and SAA

Suheil(Tigar) is coming to lift the siege.

The longer this goes on the stronger this relationship will grow methinks

Hassan Ridha‏ @sayed_ridha 6h6 hours ago

Hassan Ridha Retweeted Methaq Al-fayyadh

High level meeting between Iraqi & Syrian armies leadership in Baghdad, fight against IS and regaining/managing border were issues discussed

Just spotted this from yesterday. With the US/FSA blocked from moving NE is this the US/SDF moving S/SW in a border sealing attempt?

Ivan Sidorenko‏ @IvanSidorenko1 20h20 hours ago

#Syria #Haskaha #EasternHaskah Reports of Ongoing Violent Clashes btw #YPG & #ISIS #IS #Daesh @ Tal Shayr near Syrian - Iraqi Border.

Not a poster displayed at a base facility in the US military. Note the present tense used.



Might be in Spanish but you get the gist

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-june-15-2017-syrian-army-captures-more-oil-fields-in-raqqah-province/

JohninMK wrote:Quite a good summary IMHO of the situation but too optimistic.

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/06/syria-summary-the-end-of-the-war-is-now-in-sight.html

The author assesses Russia's level of commitment in supporting the success of the Syrian state in this affair as "total." Quite possibly true, I think. Although they'll certainly try to be as frugal in that as they can. This is both positive and worrying at the same time. People I personally know who aren't semi-obsessed weirdos on this stuff cannot seem to grasp the danger of these times. The politicians, MSM and even a big chunk of the general population in the greater Anglosphere is totally batshit insane right. I keep thinking I'll wake up one morning to see that some American fools have decided to take some drastic step to try to force Russia to back down, and then things promptly proceed to turn to sh*t...

"SYRIAN ARMY AND US-BACKED SDF COMPETEE FOR OIL FIELDS IN SOUTHERN RAQQAH."

I would really like to see a map of the Syrian Oil Fields and know which side has more.

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-and-us-backed-sdf-competee-for-oil-fields-in-southern-raqqah/


"GOVERNMENT FORCES REPEL LARGE ISIS ATTACK IN DEIR EZZOR (VIDEO, PHOTO)."

The video is just a song.

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-repels-large-isis-attack-in-deir-ezzor-photos/


"SITUATION REMAINS TENSE IN NORTHWESTERN ALEPPO AS YPG AND PRO-TURKISH MILITANT GROUPS FIGHT EACH OTHER."

Could be Russia winked at Turkey and said, do as you like.

https://southfront.org/situation-remains-tense-in-northwestern-aleppo-as-ypg-and-pro-turkish-militant-groups-fight-each-other/

calm wrote:ISIS recaptured Equestrian City and the Electrical substation. SDF retreated from 17th Division Base.

Wow, if this is correct then even with US air power and artillery the SDF can't hold gains. There must be sufficient numbers of ISIS still in the town, clearly with excellent defensive positions and their favourite tunnels, to keep this going for a while yet. Look how long it is taking in Mosul. If the rumours are true that there was 'outside' help in setting up ISIS military operations that would no doubt have included advice on defensive operations and positions, that guidance could now be coming back to hurt in a probably unintended way.

This must be taking a hell of a toll on SDF morale, OK it would possibly be part of 'their' part of Syria, being north of the river, but this is an Arab town they are trying to 'liberate' and it was surely not part of the plan to be dying in quite possibly large numbers to take it. The Turks must be smiling.

This must surely have an impact on the willingness of the SDF to move onto Deir? Especially were ISIS to take more of it.

Interesting article on the use of WP. It seems that although the military love to claim that they only use it as a smoke generator to cover movement, therefore it is an 'incendiary' weapon, if it is used and has an affect on civilians it is regarded as a 'chemical' weapon. So, given the many claimed deaths in Raqqa due to its use, we seem to have the admitted use by the Coalition of chemical weapons. Not that anything will come of it of course given the current 'might is right' basis of International Law.

http://muricatoday.com/us-chemical-weapons-civilians-iraq/

Don't you love it when allies turn on each other? My highlight.

Former Prime Minister of Qatar says Gulf & US made "mistakes" in supporting jihadists in Syria via joint operations rooms in Jordan & Turkey

"all of us worked through two operations rooms, one in Jordan and one in Turkey ... all of us were supporting the same groups"

https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/875644010143940609

IS blow up all bridges leading in and out of raqqa.
They were damaged by airstrikes, but people could climb on them and cross the river, not anymore.



Some IS attack on Kurds last days, they are starting to resist...




Sleeping like this under open sky, and knowing IS use drones...

JohninMK wrote:

calm wrote:ISIS recaptured Equestrian City and the Electrical substation. SDF retreated from 17th Division Base.

Wow, if this is correct then even with US air power and artillery the SDF can't hold gains. There must be sufficient numbers of ISIS still in the town, clearly with excellent defensive positions and their favourite tunnels, to keep this going for a while yet. Look how long it is taking in Mosul. If the rumours are true that there was 'outside' help in setting up ISIS military operations that would no doubt have included advice on defensive operations and positions, that guidance could now be coming back to hurt in a probably unintended way.

This must be taking a hell of a toll on SDF morale, OK it would possibly be part of 'their' part of Syria, being north of the river, but this is an Arab town they are trying to 'liberate' and it was surely not part of the plan to be dying in quite possibly large numbers to take it. The Turks must be smiling.

This must surely have an impact on the willingness of the SDF to move onto Deir? Especially were ISIS to take more of it.

ISIS now have no place to retreat to. That is why it is such slow going lately especially in the mountainous areas of Syria or urban centers. There they can hide and fight. On the plains and deserts, they are easy prey.

JohninMK wrote:

calm wrote:ISIS recaptured Equestrian City and the Electrical substation. SDF retreated from 17th Division Base.

Wow, if this is correct then even with US air power and artillery the SDF can't hold gains. There must be sufficient numbers of ISIS still in the town, clearly with excellent defensive positions and their favourite tunnels, to keep this going for a while yet. .......

Well Sieg did mention that Kurds can't fight for shit and that US advisers are doing all the heavy lifting so it's hardly a surprise. This song and dance routine will be on for some time.

This must be taking a hell of a toll on SDF morale, OK it would possibly be part of 'their' part of Syria, being north of the river, but this is an Arab town they are trying to 'liberate' and it was surely not part of the plan to be dying in quite possibly large numbers to take it. The Turks must be smiling.

Agreed, although given Kurdish gift of foresight that they demonstrated lately I'm surprised Turks aren't laughing their asses off. Last year has been like Christmas for them especially in comparison to what happened before.

This must surely have an impact on the willingness of the SDF to move onto Deir? Especially were ISIS to take more of it.

Yup and anything that keeps Deir up and running is damn good news, just like:

calm wrote:IS blow up all bridges leading in and out of raqqa.
They were damaged by airstrikes, but people could climb on them and cross the river, not anymore.....

It seems that ISIS figured out that trying to evacuate towards Deir as Kurds and USA would like will be short trip with VKS waiting to play whack-a-mole.

In Raqqa they at least have a chance of getting captured or prolonging the whole thing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MIG29_/status/875672025771241473

"Military source to me SAA Tiger forces liberate new more villages south of Rasafe oil field as circle in map"

SYRIAN WAR REPORT – JUNE 16, 2017: US ROCKET ARTILLERY SYSTEMS POSE DIRECT THREAT TO GOVT FORCES IN SOUTHEASTERN SYRIA


The SAA reportedly entered into the Al-Ajrawi farm south of the Tabqah airbase after repelling an attack by ISIS fighters on its new positions in the Raqqah province. Earlier this week, the SAA liberated the Al-Thawra oil field, the Al-Thawra housing and pumping station.

According to pro-government sources, the SAA may continue its advance via the Athria-Rusafa-Raqqa road. If government troops reach Rusafa, they will control the northern road to Deir Ezzor.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed up by the US-led coalition’s airpower, artillery units and military advisers, have taken control of Al-Sinaa district in the eastern part of the ISIS-held city of Raqqah. The SDF also began storming Al-Batani and continued clashing with ISIS in Al-Bared.

Separately, the SDF has captured Hawra Jrayat village and surrounding areas in the Raqqah countryside.

In Daraa city, the SAA and its allies further advanced against militants in the Nazheen camp and captured about a half of it. Clashes were also reported in Al-Manishiyah and Dara’a Al-Balad districts.

In the countryside of Palmyra, clashes between the SAA and ISIS continued near the Arak field. Following the previous gains, government forces captured the SyriaTel Hill that allows to dominate over the nearby positions controlled by ISIS.

The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed on Thursday that the US military has deployed two High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) from Jordan to Syria. The ministry added that these systems cannot provide a support to the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces storming the ISIS stronghold of Raqqah. Instead, they pose a direct threat to government forces.

“The US-led anti-Daesh coalition has several times already attacked Syrian government forces fighting Daesh [ISIS] near the Jordanian border. It is possible to assume that similar strikes could be continued in the future, involving HIMARS from now on. So what objectives is the US pursuing in Syria and whom are the US servicemen fighting there?” the statement read.

Source: https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-june-16-2017-us-rocket-artillery-systems-pose-direct-threat-to-govt-forces-in-southeastern-syria/

Meanwhile in Daraa

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Syrian artillery pounds islamists in Daraa city (Photo + Video)



DAMASCUS, SYRIA (3:10 P.M.) – New video footage emerged in the network, showing intense artillery shelling of islamist-held districts of Dara’a city amid ongoing violent clashes between Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the so-called “Free Syrian Army” (FSA) along with its jihadist allies:



Neighbourhoods demonstrated in the video are Tareeq Al-Sad and Dara’a Camp, the two contested districts of the provincial capital.

As AMN reported earlier, at least 10 jihadists were killed in clashes on Thursday alone. Below are the photos of some of them:



In turn, jihadists claimed that they had been able to destroy an SAA tank in Dara’a. Two images published by them allegedly confirm this:


However, a military source told AMN that the tank was merely damaged slightly, but remained fully operational.

Source: https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-artillery-pounds-islamists-daraa-city-photo-video/

Interesting defensive position that the tank is in. Almost a pillbox on tracks.

hi all sorry i havent been on here in a while currently in Africa on a self funded volunteering trip and internet can be a problem, currently in Ethiopia heading to Kenya.

Anyway i havent had a chance to follow as much as i want, but does anyone else sense that USA/coalition and the SDF are waiting for the SAA to help push out ISIS then once the SAA turn their attention onto full liberating other fronts such Daraa, Damascus, latakia, Hama, Homs, north west/south west Aleppo and Idilib, they will pounce in eastern Aleppo, Raqqa, Al Swaedia, and possibly Daraa.????

whats people thoughts on this, they have after all deployed HIMARS.

It isn't some super weapon. Apparently they have few of these and haven't produced missiles for it in a while. So like the MOAB, it is a gesture more than anything. To deal with it, a quick Syrian aircraft strike like launching a Kh-25 or a KAB-500, or whatever guided munition Syria could wield.

miketheterrible wrote:It isn't some super weapon.  Apparently they have few of these and haven't produced missiles for it in a while.  So like the MOAB, it is a gesture more than anything.  To deal with it, a quick Syrian aircraft strike like launching a Kh-25 or a KAB-500, or whatever guided munition Syria could wield.

Next week's news, Russians move an Iskander system to Damascus. Putting Tanf in range

It's due to things like this that I feel I can't be completely dismissive of the pipeline theory. That's not to say I would believe it to be the only reason or even the primary reason for the assault on Syria, but the US very badly wants to cut Russia as a major supplier of NG to Europe. Germans and Austrians seem to think so. So, I cannot help but find it likely that US & GCC pondered such a scenario.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-15/germany-austria-slam-us-sanctions-against-russia-warn-collapse-relations