I do agree with this analysis, the Ukrainian regime army is unable of offensive action, and that is frustrating because it means its leaders refuse commiting suicide and the stalemate persists, but I do not rule out that the US "will fight until the last Ukrainian" and use it as a ram against Russia to lure her into the Ukrainian conflict.
USA is running out of strategic options, short of all out war, their proxies in Siria and Ukraine are doomed to defeat
http://antimaydan.info/2018/04/ukrainskaya_armiya_poprostu_nepolnocenna.html
The Ukrainian army is simply inferior
2018-04-12 12:32
Summaries from the militia of Novorossia. The latest reports from the fronts of the People's Republic of Germany and the People's Republic of Germany ,
The next aggravation in international relations inevitably caused a new fit of hysteria among the Internet community.
From the Moscow cozy cafe where the hipster, concerned with politics, clung to the monitor, to the distant Khrushchev in Syktyvkar, where the retired patriot sighs in front of the TV. Fear of the future spreads everywhere. To be exact, the US, which has been at least a quarter of a century already, is both an object of envy and an example for imitation (from cinema to military uniforms).
And here the main world power, the leader of the "golden billion", in fact, openly declares: "Russia must be destroyed."
The fear of such a denouement provokes in society a bravura and witty reaction: "We almost won them, the collective West is in a panic, one Caliber is enough to sink the aircraft carrier."
Fear is so strong that the mind tries to minimize the danger, make it less significant, in order to alleviate the situation, at least morally.
Another manifestation is a constant search for evidence of the adequacy of one's condition. A typical example here is the situation in the Donbas.
Thus, mortar shelling turned out to be artless preparation from the series of recent years and the beginning of a large-scale offensive of the APU. Then this "event" is already analyzed by the Kiev media, initially a little exaggeration acquires a threatening reality.
As they say, fear has eyes big. I would like to make a small contribution to the fight against this fear, explaining a little the situation, which actually was now in the Donbass.
The first thing to mention is shelling. Indeed, the last couple of days the activity of the artillery of both sides is higher than, say, in mid-March of this year. But about no merciless bombardment of speech is not.
The situation is incomparable neither with the winter of 2015, the period of fighting for Debaltsevo, nor with the winter of 2017, when Donetsk within a week received up to 200 hits on residential buildings and infrastructure.
Another moment of injection - for more than three years the coming advance of the APU.
The inhabitants of Donetsk know that the Ukrainian army is attacking the city to every more or less significant date.
At first, the largest offensive of the APU was timed to the day when the roads dried up (although the roads are asphalted and, unlike in 1944, do not become depleted), then every time the land freezes from frost, then every May 9, Easter, Independence Day, for each session of the Normandy Four ...
In addition, the Ukrainian army is coming both on the day of the beginning of the Olympics and under the elections to the Russian parliament. The last large-scale offensive took place a few days before the presidential election in Russia.
Given such a countless number of offensives, which for some reason never come, the overwhelming majority of local residents stopped paying attention to such gossip.
But again and again, people, fear-filled to the point that their memory is stung to the size of the memory of an aquarium fish, prophesy a new offensive. Now here in May to break the football championship.
Of course, some of these gossip is being spread by the media, for which the new massacre means a new growth in views. But there are plenty of people who build one-dimensional constructions that will certainly "trample on".
And yet, of course, this is not an argument. The argument is the state of the APU itself.
Let's be guided by simple domestic logic. Is there any fundamental increase in the strength of the Ukrainian army so that it turns into something capable of effectively advancing deep into the republics? There is no such gain.
Otherwise, considering our information world, we would already have seen hundreds of videos, bravura posts in social networks about the flow of new technology, new rushing battalions, and threats and bragging about the imminent retribution for separatism.
The leaders of the scumbags would not fight for the stalls in the Kiev region, but pathetically and promisingly conducted reconnaissance at the front, not forgetting the beautiful submarines and heroic musical accompaniment.
But there is nothing of the kind. Because there is no reinforcement and transformation of APU.
Another factor is motivation. Immured in the virtuality of geopolitical analysis, some commentators imagine the APU as a single well-coordinated military machine, fully controlled by the United States.
The mistake is that the APU both experienced and experienced the same problems with volunteers as in 2014. According to the Ukrainian military leadership, their share does not exceed 5-7% of the number.
Everything else is a contract. People who came to get a salary that is higher than the national average in the army, and besides, and relying on the benefits, finally, if possible, steal anything.
The offensive impulse of such an army, to put it mildly, is small. And at the grassroots level, it will be very difficult for the company commander to explain to the platoon commanders that they need to suddenly take over and turn their soldiers (performing not very dangerous police functions) into desperate assault units ready to bear enormous losses in urban development.
These are not cyborgs, not dogs of war, they are ordinary Zarobitsh people, just with such a specific work.
Even if the offensive takes place, platoons made up of such people will be rolled back under any pretext - mortar shelling, unmanned machine gun, mines, etc. The commander can not prevent them from doing this, unless, of course, he wants to be " "Shot or beaten.
Such cases for the APU norm, more than half of all losses for 2017 - the consequences of the squabbles between each other.
Of course, there are also groups of motivated soldiers capable of performing the function of the DRG in the conditions of a static front, but they absolutely can not affect the success of a major offensive.
The desire to break into an offensive is also undermined by the fact that the Ukrainian army is simply inferior.
The normal picture of the offensive, in which an air strike is being struck, then the artillery fights the remaining pockets of resistance, then the tanks go into a breakthrough, and the infantry on light armored vehicles completes the rout - this picture can not be provided by the APU.
Aviation does not exist as such, artillery is experiencing problems with ammunition, equipment is often in a deplorable state, logistics services can not provide it with enough fuel. And even as cartridges in the box, the average gunner of the APU can not be sure.
And with the number of machine guns there are considerable problems, given the attempts to put SVD trunks on the PKM and the wide use of the machine guns "Maxim" in the troops.
And all this is well known to every soldier of the Ukrainian army. And can not help but affect his desire to go and how to hit the enemy.
Yes, a number of publications regularly trumpet about pumping up APUs with equipment and countless columns of tanks going by rail to the east. Another rotation of the brigades is given for a certain accumulation of forces. By stupidity, this is done or to throw out another panic, it is difficult to say. Rather, both the first and second.
To the same overestimation of the forces of the APU can be attributed and the multiple counting of tanks, which periodically ply along the front line, rather encouraging their soldiers than threatening the enemy.
A tank battalion without any military need can migrate from the outskirts of Lugansk to Telmanovo in the DNR, creating the illusion of many thousands of armored hordes. Some are happy to pick up and distribute this simple Ukrainian game.
There is no overwhelming superiority in the APU, which would allow striking such a force to minimize losses. In the ATO zone, up to 60,000 personnel can be counted, of which up to 40,000 are in the first line.
And often they are located with the buildup of forces in the quietest sectors of the front. For example, under Pervomaysk in LNR the superiority can be tenfold. And all because military operations here have not been conducted for more than three years, which means that the unit is safely in war, receiving increased salaries and benefits. Such a kind of "military resort".
But if we look at the entire front line, then there is no question of any tenfold superiority that is theoretically necessary for a crushing blow. There is not even a fivefold one. And this is in conditions of technical inferiority of APU.
Yes, Western countries rendered some help for conducting a positional war - various radars, night vision devices, radio stations. But such support can not have a decisive influence when attempting an offensive.
And most importantly - it is completely unclear why to go into this offensive, if it is fraught with only great losses, and promises at best a small operational success in the form of the capture of a district center in the frontline zone.
Even now, in the conditions of peace, when the Kiev media are trumpeting about the legendary and invincible Ukrainian army, the advocates of war form a clear minority in Ukrainian society.
At the first mass losses of such supporters will be an order of magnitude less.
The whole situation looks absolutely inadequate, given the political struggle that is developing for the presidency in Ukraine. Yes, and practical value in the breakdown of the established economic and political balance around the ATU is difficult to see.
Some characters, seriously afraid of America and trembling before its power, are convinced that Kiev obeys any orders from Washington and is ready to automatically fulfill them (leaving aside the need for Washington itself to put the APU in the Donbass). But it seems to me, to put it mildly, exaggeration and flattening of the real picture. All this is only a product of fear of the hegemon.
Thus, I would like everyone to be called to free themselves from fear. At least before the powerful AFU, crushing the Donbas in a matter of days.
Yes, the army of the Democratic People's Republic of France is not the Red Army of the model of the 45th year, but also the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not the Wehrmacht of the 41st.
The stalemate situation that has developed at the front with an enormous probability will remain unchanged until some factors external to the war break the existing balance.
Source: vz.ru
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