Syrian War: News #18

BKP wrote:Latest post on Martyanov's blog:

INTERMITTENT SUMMARY:  So it is clear mow that IAF used the oldest trick in the book by shielding her aircraft by IL-20 which was descending for landing--so very Israeli--and then, of course, lied that it warned Russian side. Yes...one minute prior. I will return to Israel later, for now it is known that Bibi wants to speak with Putin and that Israel is engaged with Russia across a whole spectrum of diplomatic, military, what have you, activity trying to prevent what might be coming.

Having said all that. The part of the blame rests with Syrian AD and specifically with those operators who launched S-200. There is very little doubt that IL-20s IFF (Interrogation Friend-Foe) system was on and that would have necessitate a much more stringent ROE. It didn't work. So, Russian AD specialists may want to introduce additional rules (or caveats) for the whole complex in Syria. After this event it will be easier to control Syrian part. Russian side also bears responsibility. Now back to Israel.

The most important part in all that is that unlike previous statements from General Rudskoi, Defense Minister Shoigu's statement today carries much more weight and Shoigu directly made Israel responsible for the situation. So, what's in store now? For starters, I think, a lot depends on what Bibi will be willing to give Russia. If not much, the game changes and, indeed, all kinds of scenarios, from No-fly Zone to Syria getting S-300, or simply additional Russian-operated S-300 and S-400 appearing in Syria, to who knows what else. Israel is not in a very good situation right now and the only thing they may do is to place the blame on someone else (i.e. Syria). It is a sad day for Russia and, of course, I can only imagine what kind of agony relatives of IL-20 crew are going through right now but highly sensitive personal aspect of this unnecessary tragedy should not obscure a very obvious fact of Israel's treachery (what's new?) and the price it will pay one way or another. What price is it going to be? We'll see in time.

UPDATE: Putin's quote:
Russia will investigate the incident, Putin said, adding that Moscow will boost security of Russian troops in Syria following the incident. He said that these will be “the steps that everyone will notice.”

Vladimir79 wrote:The news I read was the Il-20 was shot down by the SAA AD in the middle of an Israeli air raid.  The SAA says they were trying to shoot down incoming missiles but I don't see how you mistake an Il-20 for one of those.  

Karl Haushofer wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Navalny isn't opposition. Opposition requires more than 2% lol

Anyway

https://twitter.com/RussiaInsider/status/1042055162418741248?s=19

Russia Insider used to be very pro-Putin just a few years ago. Lately they have turned a lot more critical towards him.

ultimatewarrior wrote:

They should have scrambled fighter jets. SAM is very dangerous to use when friendly planes are in the sky.

Stealthflanker wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:

They should have scrambled fighter jets. SAM is very dangerous to use when friendly planes are in the sky.

The biggest question.. where were Syrian Air Force ? Their Su-24 and Su-22 are airborne bombing the terrorists but where were those shiny MiG-29's ?

ultimatewarrior wrote:
Probably out of commission. They ordered MiG-29 M / M2 before the war but Russia refuses to deliver them on the pretext there is war in Syria.

Stealthflanker wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:
Probably out of commission. They ordered MiG-29 M / M2 before the war but Russia refuses to deliver them on the pretext there is war in Syria.

They have upgraded their old MiG's. now with capability to support RVV-AE.  So it's perfectly working and there were occassions where these planes fly with Russians and harass Turkey AF's.

sounds like it's more of political than the capability.

Neutrality wrote:I understand people from both sides, those who want a full blown retaliation and those who are cautious (no one in their right mind wants a WW3)

I seriously hope something's being done that doesn't bring us to a catastrophy but damages Israel and their NATO allies in the vicinity. Right now I'm thinking about a no fly-zone.
All planes that are not related to Russia's allies will be shot down upon entering said zone, no excuses.

Israel rolled the dice on this one...

Isos wrote:
Then Israel will keep launching cruise missiles and russia will seem even more weaker.

Neutrality wrote:

Isos wrote:
Then Israel will keep launching cruise missiles and russia will seem even more weaker.

Fair enough but at least Russia will be targetting and shooting them down with ZERO fucks given this time. Will be a good target practice exercise too.

With that having said, Israel will have to make a decision: waste way more resources to achieve their goals, angering Russia even more in the process or cooperate and coordinate with Russia this time.

Isos wrote:
You can't punish with defence tactics, either they attack with tupolevs and make a clear message to everyone either they shut up and it will happen again with turks staying in afrin, US bombing "chemical" buildings, japan starting to fly over kurils, china looking Siberia from the border with a weired look ...

Neutrality wrote:

Isos wrote:
You can't punish with defence tactics, either they attack with tupolevs and make a clear message to everyone either they shut up and it will happen again with turks staying in afrin, US bombing "chemical" buildings, japan starting to fly over kurils, china looking Siberia from the border with a weired look ...

Alright indulge me.

Russia starts throwing cruise missiles against NATO formations in the Mediterranean, anything that remains above water starts bombing Lattakia.

What's next?

Isos wrote:

Russian bombing the middle east bases and those in eastern europe.

But if they haven't allowed the bombing of SAA units more agressivly by intercepting intrudors since the begining and answered the turkish f-16 that destroyed the su-24 nothing would have happened because no one wants to escalate with russia.

If they have proved that a downed su-24 means a russian answer then everyone would know that a downed il-20 with 15 people dead would mean a big answer of russia. They never gave any answer so those things will keep happening.

Iran/israel issue shouldn't be resolved by russian air defence or air force. But when you let israel do what they want they take confidence and do those type of things.

Just a question : what would happen if Syria attacks a weapon storage in israel and there is a US carrier there ? They will hit back, US and israeli.

Yeserday 15 russians and two syrian died and no answer. They are doing this step by step destroying slowly russian assests with ambushes, trying with drones and now they try to destroy russo/syrian friendship to remove russians from syria.

Rolling Eyes

Yeah, bomb all the bases in Eastern Europe out of the blue, antagonizing and alienating the only friendly nations they had for the next 100 years. Splendid plan  thumbsup

Let me ask you a simple question: do you seriously believe that people who make the decissions haven't thought these scenarios through? I also want a total retaliation for our dead guys but at the same time I realize that this kind of shit will kill even more of our own. Does that mean we should sit still and don't do anything? Absolutely not. The high command should exploit every possible angle and I'm sure that they are. They are the same people behind the plans that resulted in "clean" Syrian territory.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:See Putin can make Isreal pay without attacking Isreal land.

Simply put down more AD and tell your operators its now open season on Isreali aircraft if they bomb Syria for whatever purpose.

ATLASCUB wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:See Putin can make Isreal pay without attacking Isreal land.

Simply put down more AD and tell your operators its now open season on Isreali aircraft if they bomb Syria for whatever purpose.

That's the least.....

They could also arm Lebanon (Hez) and Iran (backdoor), support BDS and call for Security Council resolutions condeming Israel, starting with this event....espectacles of all kind could be considered.....

But given Russian responses and Putin's words today.... you'll be lucky if you get the "least"....cause it looks like you'll get nothing.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:See Putin can make Isreal pay without attacking Isreal land.

Simply put down more AD and tell your operators its now open season on Isreali aircraft if they bomb Syria for whatever purpose.

That's the least.....

They could also arm Lebanon (Hez) and Iran (backdoor), support BDS and call for Security Council resolutions condeming Israel, starting with this event....espectacles of all kind could be considered.....

But given Russian responses and Putin's words today.... you'll be lucky if you get the "least"....cause it looks like you'll get nothing.

Putin: Israel didn't shoot down the Russian plane deliberately. It was a result of a chain of tragic circumstances

You know it's sad when your own leader is making up excuses for them killing your own guys

Yeah he will just brush it under the rug so "We are making it safer, and will make sure this doesn't happen again" blah blah blah, we know the story. What an embarrassment