Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #9

Militarov wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Plane down in Khalsah, in Southern Aleppo.

Claimed Russian.

Jaish al-Sunnah claims it was Russian Su-24 and that they shot it down with MANPADS.

I would really take the ManPad hit with a fuckton of salt. They've never operated under 3500. They don't even need to do so. As they don't provide CAS. So seriously spooked at what happened there.

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:About Turkey, I would expect Russia to take the side of the Kurds for the long term. It is in the interest of Russia, not only in Turkey and Syria, also in Irak, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

That would be tragic mistake. Russia is not naturally drawn into "nation building", quite the contrary. Kurds are problem in Irak, Iran and Syria. They will be a bigger issue in Turkey. Turkey going down into fully blown civil war is Armenian genocide level bullshit waiting to happen on both sides.

So frankly, Nope.

The question is clear. If Turkey and the NATO have easy and clear control of the Kurdish territory, they have easier to work in Georgia, Syria and Irak. Even in Azerbaijan. Russia is not interested on it.

They already have a clear control on Kurdish territory, it is in KRG that Turkey established its FOB in Iraq, it is always in KRG that most ISIS oil transited through from Iraq...

Kurds are a tough deal and they mingle with Russian Strategic interests (Iran, Iraq, Syria). Not even close to allowing them a shot at independence. I don't see why Great Kurdistan would be more interesting than Great "stuff" in such areas.

PapaDragon wrote:
Am I the only one who has a feeling that things are getting little weird over there? I mean Tu-142 flying over Syria? Something strange is cooking...

Taken from another author.

This is what is strange is cooking in Syria:

"PG have now arrived at the outskirts of Manbij. The city will probably be taken soon. So will Jarabulus.


For over a year US have been pressuring YPG to take Raqqa and give it to FSA.


Thus far YPG has refused to move on Raqqa and demanded they are given the area in between Kobani and Afrin first.


Government of Turkey has said if YPG crosses the Euphratus into Manbij or Jarabulus, they will respond by launching a full scale invasion of all areas held by YPG and drive them out.


Apparently US has now agreed to grant the YPG's demands, despite severe protests by Erdogan and the Turks.


But Kurds will not move on Raqqa until Afrian and Kobani are connected. Kurds will first move West before they even attempt to move South.


This means SAA has at least some time to take the city. But they have to move fast now.
"

I think Syria is going to go all out for Aleppo and Al Raqqa with Russian help, this has the US worried and also Russia is going to much more in Syria.


'Still Much to Be Done to Support Syrian Army'

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160605/1040801377/syrian-army-russia-support.html#ixzz4Aj5A0i1t

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:About Turkey, I would expect Russia to take the side of the Kurds for the long term. It is in the interest of Russia, not only in Turkey and Syria, also in Irak, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

That would be tragic mistake. Russia is not naturally drawn into "nation building", quite the contrary. Kurds are problem in Irak, Iran and Syria. They will be a bigger issue in Turkey. Turkey going down into fully blown civil war is Armenian genocide level bullshit waiting to happen on both sides.

So frankly, Nope.

The question is clear. If Turkey and the NATO have easy and clear control of the Kurdish territory, they have easier to work in Georgia, Syria and Irak. Even in Azerbaijan. Russia is not interested on it.

They already have a clear control on Kurdish territory, it is in KRG that Turkey established its FOB in Iraq, it is always in KRG that most ISIS oil transited through from Iraq...

Kurds are a tough deal and they mingle with Russian Strategic interests (Iran, Iraq, Syria). Not even close to allowing them a shot at independence. I don't see why Great Kurdistan would be more interesting than Great "stuff" in such areas.

It proves my argument, it is not difficult to see what is in the mind of the Turkish rulers.

It is in the interest of Russia to change it. And also it is in the interest of the local population (Kurds). I expect to see the Kurdish forces better armed in the future. First steps seems being done.

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:About Turkey, I would expect Russia to take the side of the Kurds for the long term. It is in the interest of Russia, not only in Turkey and Syria, also in Irak, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

That would be tragic mistake. Russia is not naturally drawn into "nation building", quite the contrary. Kurds are problem in Irak, Iran and Syria. They will be a bigger issue in Turkey. Turkey going down into fully blown civil war is Armenian genocide level bullshit waiting to happen on both sides.

So frankly, Nope.

The question is clear. If Turkey and the NATO have easy and clear control of the Kurdish territory, they have easier to work in Georgia, Syria and Irak. Even in Azerbaijan. Russia is not interested on it.

They already have a clear control on Kurdish territory, it is in KRG that Turkey established its FOB in Iraq, it is always in KRG that most ISIS oil transited through from Iraq...

Kurds are a tough deal and they mingle with Russian Strategic interests (Iran, Iraq, Syria). Not even close to allowing them a shot at independence. I don't see why Great Kurdistan would be more interesting than Great "stuff" in such areas.

It proves my argument, it is not difficult to see what is in the mind of the Turkish rulers.

It is in the interest of Russia to change it. And also it is in the interest of the local population (Kurds). I expect to see the Kurdish forces better armed in the future. First steps seems being done.

How it proves your point that helping Kurds will cause more issues in the long run than simply patting them in the back. Even the US isn't propping them in any significant way. If the Kurds their territory the next shitty thing you're going to see will be spoiled geopolitical brats.

sepheronx wrote:After going through twitter, I found out that the video claimed to be Russian plane is old and post that started it no longer exists. So it was another fake. Apparently.

https://mobile.twitter.com/putintintin1/status/739500841963491328

Is this the photo/video you thinking of Kote?

Video of captured people is from 2014, pictures of downed aircraft seem genuine. But for sure it has to be taken with a boatload of salt.

sepheronx wrote:Which picture you seen? So far, nothing is mentioned.

https://twitter.com/bm21_grad/status/739495166663393283

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:About Turkey, I would expect Russia to take the side of the Kurds for the long term. It is in the interest of Russia, not only in Turkey and Syria, also in Irak, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

That would be tragic mistake. Russia is not naturally drawn into "nation building", quite the contrary. Kurds are problem in Irak, Iran and Syria. They will be a bigger issue in Turkey. Turkey going down into fully blown civil war is Armenian genocide level bullshit waiting to happen on both sides.

So frankly, Nope.

The question is clear. If Turkey and the NATO have easy and clear control of the Kurdish territory, they have easier to work in Georgia, Syria and Irak. Even in Azerbaijan. Russia is not interested on it.

They already have a clear control on Kurdish territory, it is in KRG that Turkey established its FOB in Iraq, it is always in KRG that most ISIS oil transited through from Iraq...

Kurds are a tough deal and they mingle with Russian Strategic interests (Iran, Iraq, Syria). Not even close to allowing them a shot at independence. I don't see why Great Kurdistan would be more interesting than Great "stuff" in such areas.

It proves my argument, it is not difficult to see what is in the mind of the Turkish rulers.

It is in the interest of Russia to change it. And also it is in the interest of the local population (Kurds). I expect to see the Kurdish forces better armed in the future. First steps seems being done.

How it proves your point that helping Kurds will cause more issues in the long run than simply patting them in the back. Even the US isn't propping them in any significant way. If the Kurds their territory the next shitty thing you're going to see will be spoiled geopolitical brats.

It proves that when Turkey control easily its "own" territory, Turkey rulers begin to look forward with expansive apetite, in Irak, in Syria, but also in Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Even the fight in the North of Aleppo to keep the Kurds divided is not to supply the "moderate" fighters. They can do it easily by the Idlib province. The Turkish fight to keep divided the Syrian territory under Kudish control is to keep open the way to the Islamic State territory and to supply them while taking some cheap oil.

Turkey is not a popular country. At least in Europe is very unpopular. Many people seems not to realize about how unconfortable the people in the European Union feel with Turkey and their policies. Turkey involved in continuous ans relatively serious fighting with Kurds makes sure that Turkey never will join the European Union (if it was not sure enough without it). And even the NATO (by European influence) will not follow the Turkish expansive military actions in the area. Lets Turkey to do some masacre of Kurds and the pressure in the European Union will be hard against Turkey. Russian politicians are smart enough to see it.

If Turkey need 10000, 20000 or 30000 policemen or soldiers permanently to keep the order in the Turkish Kurdistan, then the hability of Turkey to look outsaide its limits is finished.

For Russia this is a Win-Win situation.

sepheronx wrote:That one is from a dead link. Most figure it is old. Awaiting further details. Nothing in Russian news.

No no, that one is fresh. The old 2014 video is down in the links.

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:About Turkey, I would expect Russia to take the side of the Kurds for the long term. It is in the interest of Russia, not only in Turkey and Syria, also in Irak, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

That would be tragic mistake. Russia is not naturally drawn into "nation building", quite the contrary. Kurds are problem in Irak, Iran and Syria. They will be a bigger issue in Turkey. Turkey going down into fully blown civil war is Armenian genocide level bullshit waiting to happen on both sides.

So frankly, Nope.

The question is clear. If Turkey and the NATO have easy and clear control of the Kurdish territory, they have easier to work in Georgia, Syria and Irak. Even in Azerbaijan. Russia is not interested on it.

They already have a clear control on Kurdish territory, it is in KRG that Turkey established its FOB in Iraq, it is always in KRG that most ISIS oil transited through from Iraq...

Kurds are a tough deal and they mingle with Russian Strategic interests (Iran, Iraq, Syria). Not even close to allowing them a shot at independence. I don't see why Great Kurdistan would be more interesting than Great "stuff" in such areas.

It proves my argument, it is not difficult to see what is in the mind of the Turkish rulers.

It is in the interest of Russia to change it. And also it is in the interest of the local population (Kurds). I expect to see the Kurdish forces better armed in the future. First steps seems being done.

How it proves your point that helping Kurds will cause more issues in the long run than simply patting them in the back. Even the US isn't propping them in any significant way. If the Kurds their territory the next shitty thing you're going to see will be spoiled geopolitical brats.

It proves that when Turkey control easily its "own" territory, Turkey rulers begin to look forward with expansive apetite, in Irak, in Syria, but also in Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Even the fight in the North of Aleppo to keep the Kurds divided is not to supply the "moderate" fighters. They can do it easily by the Idlib province. The Turkish fight to keep divided the Syrian territory under Kudish control is to keep open the way to the Islamic State territory and to supply them while taking some cheap oil.

Turkey is not a popular country. At least in Europe is very unpopular. Many people seems not to realize about how unconfortable the people in the European Union feel with Turkey and their policies. Turkey involved in continuous ans relatively serious fighting with Kurds makes sure that Turkey never will join the European Union (if it was not sure enough without it). And even the NATO (by European influence) will not follow the Turkish expansive military actions in the area. Lets Turkey to do some masacre of Kurds and the pressure in the European Union will be hard against Turkey. Russian politicians are smart enough to see it.

If Turkey need 10000, 20000 or 30000 policemen or soldiers permanently to keep the order in the Turkish Kurdistan, then the hability of Turkey to look outsaide its limits is finished.

For Russia this is a Win-Win situation.

Not even close to a winning situation. How are you going to sustain this State? What relationships with its neighbours, how are you going to protect it? Also Turkey is a Medieval Regime right now, having 100K Security forces to keep Kurdistan in Check is a cheap price to hold the whole of Turkey in its grip. it will probably bankrupt in the long run, but it's not a situation you'll want to see.

sepheronx wrote:Original post taken down. Others claim it is old cause things look cold. Seen in other convos. Although, another one circulating from the trees. But even that and this photo look completely different (smoke).

Konash just said no Russian Plane was harmed during that Hollywood production.

The tree image was from artillery striking in Southern Aleppo.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Original post taken down. Others claim it is old cause things look cold. Seen in other convos. Although, another one circulating from the trees. But even that and this photo look completely different (smoke).

Konash just said no Russian Plane was harmed during that Hollywood production.

The tree image was from artillery striking in Southern Aleppo.

General Major Igor Konashenkov : "All planes of RuAF are at the Hmeymim airbase"

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Original post taken down. Others claim it is old cause things look cold. Seen in other convos. Although, another one circulating from the trees. But even that and this photo look completely different (smoke).

Konash just said no Russian Plane was harmed during that Hollywood production.

The tree image was from artillery striking in Southern Aleppo.

So the photo was a fake afterall?

Figured as much. I know there are strikes in aleppo recently but if one dropped, it would be all over the news. Ruaf is very transparent in its Syria op.

It can afford transparence, it doesn't do Cas anymore.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

eehnie wrote:About Turkey, I would expect Russia to take the side of the Kurds for the long term. It is in the interest of Russia, not only in Turkey and Syria, also in Irak, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

That would be tragic mistake. Russia is not naturally drawn into "nation building", quite the contrary. Kurds are problem in Irak, Iran and Syria. They will be a bigger issue in Turkey. Turkey going down into fully blown civil war is Armenian genocide level bullshit waiting to happen on both sides.

So frankly, Nope.

The question is clear. If Turkey and the NATO have easy and clear control of the Kurdish territory, they have easier to work in Georgia, Syria and Irak. Even in Azerbaijan. Russia is not interested on it.

They already have a clear control on Kurdish territory, it is in KRG that Turkey established its FOB in Iraq, it is always in KRG that most ISIS oil transited through from Iraq...

Kurds are a tough deal and they mingle with Russian Strategic interests (Iran, Iraq, Syria). Not even close to allowing them a shot at independence. I don't see why Great Kurdistan would be more interesting than Great "stuff" in such areas.

It proves my argument, it is not difficult to see what is in the mind of the Turkish rulers.

It is in the interest of Russia to change it. And also it is in the interest of the local population (Kurds). I expect to see the Kurdish forces better armed in the future. First steps seems being done.

How it proves your point that helping Kurds will cause more issues in the long run than simply patting them in the back. Even the US isn't propping them in any significant way. If the Kurds their territory the next shitty thing you're going to see will be spoiled geopolitical brats.

It proves that when Turkey control easily its "own" territory, Turkey rulers begin to look forward with expansive apetite, in Irak, in Syria, but also in Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Even the fight in the North of Aleppo to keep the Kurds divided is not to supply the "moderate" fighters. They can do it easily by the Idlib province. The Turkish fight to keep divided the Syrian territory under Kudish control is to keep open the way to the Islamic State territory and to supply them while taking some cheap oil.

Turkey is not a popular country. At least in Europe is very unpopular. Many people seems not to realize about how unconfortable the people in the European Union feel with Turkey and their policies. Turkey involved in continuous ans relatively serious fighting with Kurds makes sure that Turkey never will join the European Union (if it was not sure enough without it). And even the NATO (by European influence) will not follow the Turkish expansive military actions in the area. Lets Turkey to do some masacre of Kurds and the pressure in the European Union will be hard against Turkey. Russian politicians are smart enough to see it.

If Turkey need 10000, 20000 or 30000 policemen or soldiers permanently to keep the order in the Turkish Kurdistan, then the hability of Turkey to look outsaide its limits is finished.

For Russia this is a Win-Win situation.

Not even close to a winning situation. How are you going to sustain this State? What relationships with its neighbours, how are you going to protect it? Also Turkey is a Medieval Regime right now, having 100K Security forces to keep Kurdistan in Check is a cheap price to hold the whole of Turkey in its grip. it will probably bankrupt in the long run, but it's not a situation you'll want to see.

I'm not talking about a state, but I would not be opposed to it. Between a complete freedom of Turkey and a complete defeat there is a range of situations. In fact it would be better for Russia a smaller and weaker Turkey. Do you think Turkey can afford a new genocide like in the case of the Armenians? Far from the reality.

I'm not old, but in my life a good number of states have been created. In the life of my grandmother were created the 75% of the current states of the world, and they remain living.

In what would be worse for Russia to take the side of the Kurds of Turkey?

Here are the two photos you talk about

#ISIS trying to hit #Russia Mi-28N with machine gun.. Good luck and pray he wont spot you.. #Palmyra

Is this safe?

1080p - http://agencyvideos.pw/v/tms05062016.mp4

720p - http://agencyvideos.pw/v/tms05062016-720.mp4

380p - http://agencyvideos.pw/v/tms05062016-360.mp4

calm wrote:

#ISIS trying to hit #Russia Mi-28N with machine gun.. Good luck and pray he wont spot you.. #Palmyra

Is this safe?

1080p - http://agencyvideos.pw/v/tms05062016.mp4

720p - http://agencyvideos.pw/v/tms05062016-720.mp4

380p - http://agencyvideos.pw/v/tms05062016-360.mp4

No, but at that level I'd worry about stray Rpg.

someone please recap the losses so far?

-Su-24M and Mi-8MTSh in november 2015, shootdown and damage to helo during rescue
-Mi-28 crash in mars or was it april 2016... tragic accident

add to that some 10-15 men lost officially in total (probably more in SF and PMC)

Am I right?

The airport sat images /helos destroyed by daesh was a photoshop, we all agree on that, no news?

The recently claimed Su-24M, i saw is said could be SAA Su-22, or just fake/montages/old video

Any info on ground forces losses? armor? arty? trucks?


Edit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces_casualties_in_Syria
http://www.interpretermag.com/fontanka-investigates-russian-mercenaries-dying-for-putin-in-syria-and-ukraine/

"In addition, at least 62 private military contractors (PMCs) belonging to the Russian company "Wagner" were killed or wounded by December 2015.[10] Among these, were three or nine PMCs who were killed in a mortar attack on their position in Latakia province in October 2015.[11][12] Subsequently, another six PMC deaths were reported in February and March 2016, near Latakia, Damascus and Palmyra."

What the hell??? 70+ pmcs ?

KoTeMoRe wrote:

calm wrote:

#ISIS trying to hit #Russia Mi-28N with machine gun.. Good luck and pray he wont spot you.. #Palmyra

Is this safe?

1080p - http://agencyvideos.pw/v/tms05062016.mp4

720p - http://agencyvideos.pw/v/tms05062016-720.mp4

380p - http://agencyvideos.pw/v/tms05062016-360.mp4

No, but at that level I'd worry about stray Rpg.

i agree what the hell was it so low, no need to to be that low or that close, thats just asking to be taken down, an rpg could have taken it down at that range.