Russian Economy General News: #8

So CBR is taking measure against anticipated US sanction against Russian Government Bonds , Yet it is fine in investing more than $100 in US T bills the paradox cant be more visible

Austin wrote:

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:

kvs wrote:

Svyatoslavich wrote:

Austin wrote:I am shocked Russia Finance Minister believes what he says

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4760077

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, in turn, added that he considers unlikely the arrest of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves abroad during the tightening of sanctions. "If our gold and currency exchanges are arrested, it's just financial terrorism, I think that certainly will not come to this." In fact, it will be a declaration of financial war, "the minister said.

It may be a warning also, putting a red line and saying "don't cross it".
Also, does Russia keeps gold reserves abroad? I didn't know it.

I think this is just poor translation.   The only foreign exposure is in US treasuries.    The US would not really be able to "cancel" those in Russia's possession.
Please someone correct me, but US treasuries are like bearer bonds and Russia could unload its US paper to 3rd parties and lose almost nothing.  

If Russian oligarchs and whatnot choose to keep their money in NATO banks, well, then, the Russian government cannot guarantee the safety of these
assets.

What about EU treasury since Forex 40 % is EU T bills ?

US has in past confiscated T Bills of Iran of the tune of $100 billion.

Gold is Certainly in Russia but what about US , EU T bills plus small amount of IMF SDR ,UK Pound etc

I am going to have to ask for a reference regarding the $100 billion in "T bills".  From what I recall, it was the freezing of various
Iranian assets including property in the US and EU.     Russia does not hold such assets in NATO.   Oligarchs are not Russia.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/ahmadinejad-us-supreme-court-iran-terror-2-billion.html

"Under the previous administration, it was decided that a part of the Central Bank's resources be managed in Europe," said Vice President Eshag Jahangiri on April 23 regarding the US Supreme Court ruling. "Therefore, with complete poor planning, $2 billion of American bonds were purchased and kept in a European bank, so the Americans were able to easily block the bonds and then confiscate it."


What makes you think US can simply refuse to honour its commitment to T bills and will simply refuse to redeem  it for Russia ?  

They dont have to confiscate it they can just refuse to honour it and Russia CBR wont be able to do squat about it. What Russia holds is penuts for US and they can easily afford to say no with no consquences to US Bond Market.

You did not back up your initial claim of $100 billion in T-bills confiscated from Iran. That some decision makers in Iran were idiots for keep part of
their T-bills in NATO banks is rather clear. If Russia is actually doing something similar, then there can be no sympathy for such idiocy.

As for redemption. I really doubt T-bills have the name of the bearer written on them. So Russia does not need to sell them back to the USA.
It can sell them to 3rd parties.

Cyberspec wrote:Or maybe he knows a thing or two more than us on the forum

impossible

N:o disrespect to other forum participants. Well Putin has to deal with multi-dimensional space.

1) external geopolitical situation
2) internal enemies and challenges
3) military and technological development
4) social sphere not to depopulate country
5) or social explosion
6) political power struggle within Russia
7) both sides has some invisible levers or kompromats that usually never are made public just help to drive situation in right direction


to mention only a few of them. There is a bunch of news and analyses that never will be shown to anybody of us or even so called experts. There are no reuls or "international law" . There are rules of the game that change depending on many factors also military situation.


And economy: Putin apparently has chosen low risk approach. Situation gets stabilized, Development is slow. Money invested in T-bills? so what? Russia has lots of $ and € denominated loans in the west. Blocking Russians assets abroad is double edged sword in sch case. Any financial instruments ensuring banking system liquidity are the must world of constant threats. Apparently t-bonds are one of them.

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:

kvs wrote:

Svyatoslavich wrote:

Austin wrote:I am shocked Russia Finance Minister believes what he says

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4760077

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, in turn, added that he considers unlikely the arrest of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves abroad during the tightening of sanctions. "If our gold and currency exchanges are arrested, it's just financial terrorism, I think that certainly will not come to this." In fact, it will be a declaration of financial war, "the minister said.

It may be a warning also, putting a red line and saying "don't cross it".
Also, does Russia keeps gold reserves abroad? I didn't know it.

I think this is just poor translation.   The only foreign exposure is in US treasuries.    The US would not really be able to "cancel" those in Russia's possession.
Please someone correct me, but US treasuries are like bearer bonds and Russia could unload its US paper to 3rd parties and lose almost nothing.  

If Russian oligarchs and whatnot choose to keep their money in NATO banks, well, then, the Russian government cannot guarantee the safety of these
assets.

What about EU treasury since Forex 40 % is EU T bills ?

US has in past confiscated T Bills of Iran of the tune of $100 billion.

Gold is Certainly in Russia but what about US , EU T bills plus small amount of IMF SDR ,UK Pound etc

I am going to have to ask for a reference regarding the $100 billion in "T bills".  From what I recall, it was the freezing of various
Iranian assets including property in the US and EU.     Russia does not hold such assets in NATO.   Oligarchs are not Russia.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/ahmadinejad-us-supreme-court-iran-terror-2-billion.html

"Under the previous administration, it was decided that a part of the Central Bank's resources be managed in Europe," said Vice President Eshag Jahangiri on April 23 regarding the US Supreme Court ruling. "Therefore, with complete poor planning, $2 billion of American bonds were purchased and kept in a European bank, so the Americans were able to easily block the bonds and then confiscate it."


What makes you think US can simply refuse to honour its commitment to T bills and will simply refuse to redeem  it for Russia ?  

They dont have to confiscate it they can just refuse to honour it and Russia CBR wont be able to do squat about it. What Russia holds is penuts for US and they can easily afford to say no with no consquences to US Bond Market.

You did not back up your initial claim of $100 billion in T-bills confiscated from Iran. That some decision makers in Iran were idiots for keep part of
their T-bills in NATO banks is rather clear. If Russia is actually doing something similar, then there can be no sympathy for such idiocy.

As for redemption. I really doubt T-bills have the name of the bearer written on them. So Russia does not need to sell them back to the USA.
It can sell them to 3rd parties.

I tried to find it but Irans Asset seems to be too generic statement here , I found the fllowing on Irans sanction from US Congress list out different asset

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS20871.pdf

I already posted link of Iran $2 billion bonds getting siphoned off.

I hope more than the figure its the intent I am trying to bring out , Russian T bills can easily get siphoned off by US with no risk to US Bond Market but the size of the money is just too small $ 103 billion

For Russia though $103 billion is a huge amount to loose , they can just invest these money in Russian economy directly or just pay off debts or invest in less risky assets like IMF SDR or Gold which would have less direct access by US.

Even investing in BRICS bonds is not a bad idea these countries are friendly to Russia and coupen yead much higher yeald

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Money invested in T-bills? so what? Russia has lots of $ and € denominated loans in the west. Blocking Russians assets abroad is double edged sword in sch case. Any financial instruments ensuring banking system liquidity are the must world of constant threats. Apparently t-bonds are one of them.

Russia does not have to wait till it money gets blocked to refuse to pay Foreign Debts , It can even do that now as it is any way under heavy sanctions.

They dont have to risk $100 billion just to prove a point that they have some sort of double edge sword.

If they are wise they will just invest that $100 billion in Russian Economy or assets that would be difficult for US/NATO to grab.

I hope the intent is clear of what I am trying to say , Russian Money does not need to depend on US good will when that money can work for its own economy

Case of CBR patting its own back

[b]CB stopped Russian Lehman Brothers
The bankruptcy of "Discovery" and Binbank would lead to a domino effect]/b]

https://iz.ru/676531/alina-evstigneeva-inna-grigoreva-anastasiia-alekseevskikh/tcb-ostanovil-russkii-lehman-brothers

New sanctions will reduce the level of Russia's external debt

https://iz.ru/676052/grigorii-kogan/novye-sanktcii-sniziat-uroven-vneshnego-dolga-rossii

In August, US President Donald Trump signed a law on "Countering America's opponents through sanctions." Decide on this decision, the United States should at the beginning of next year - in January, the 180-day period expires, during which the US Ministry of Finance should offer recommendations to the Congress on the ban on investment in the Russian national debt.

"The negative consequences of this ban can be offset by the high demand for OFZ from the banking sector, which is interested in highly liquid assets," the possible risks in the Central Bank commented to Izvestia.

heh this is what I call the good beginning



Media: RF Ministry of Finance hired banks to place bonds in yuan

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4771936

Austin wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Money invested in T-bills?  so what? Russia has lots of $ and € denominated loans in the west.  Blocking Russians assets abroad is double edged sword in sch case. Any financial instruments ensuring banking system liquidity are the must world of constant threats. Apparently t-bonds are one of them.  

Russia does not have to wait till it money gets blocked to refuse to pay Foreign Debts , It can even do that now as it is any way under heavy sanctions.

Frankly?  I consider this  a bad idea. This means default. Problems with business ties with other countries. It actually would turn Russia into something like North Korea. Better solution is to grow economy and economic ties based trade with non "Atlantic community"

They dont have to risk $100 billion just to prove a point that they have some sort of double edge sword.

If they are wise they will just invest that $100 billion in Russian Economy or assets that would be difficult for US/NATO to grab.

I hope the intent is clear of what I am trying to say , Russian Money does not need to depend on US good will when that money can work for its own economy

But as you can see USA didnt do this. Not because of those tiny 100 blns. Apparently this is not good for them either.  As for intent I agree. But so far the whol eworld economy is build around USA.  Russia alone is on economically very weak position (PPP is roughly Germany's one and 5 times less than US) .

Much more efficient is to build parallel structures joining China and then US wold will have serious problems - you can choose? why to choose paying for US overconsumption?


As for investing in Russia's economy. OK imagine you pour those 100 blns into current structure economy. Most of money is going to be wasted by inefficient state management and leaking banking/tax systems. First close gaps, ensure efficient rules and new governers and finctial instruments so internal funds can invest money as well as internal investors. Then release stream of money.

Thsi is as I can see it.

U.S. Diplomat Says Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Probably Won't Be Built

https://www.rferl.org/a/us-diplomat-nord-stream-2-wont-be-built/28886312.html

BRUSSELS -- A U.S. diplomat has dismissed the idea that the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline will ever be built.

Speaking to European journalists in a telephone briefing on November 29, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State John McCarrick said that U.S. officials "don't see the possibility that Nord Stream 2 can be built."

"That is not something we are going to assume is going to happen," said McCarrick, who works at the State Department's Bureau of Energy Resources.

When pressed for details, McCarrick responded that "there is a variety of reasons why it shouldn't happen.... The bottom line is we are against this. We don't see this happening, so why would I entertain any other sort of option or possibility?”

Earlier this year, the United States introduced sanctions that call for penalties against European companies that participate in the Nord Stream 2 and other Russian energy projects in Europe.

If built, the pipeline will run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, bypassing several European transit countries. It is scheduled to be completed by 2019.

Berlin has so far supported the pipeline, which would deliver 55 billion cubic meters of gas a year to Germany from Russia.

Several EU members in Central and Eastern Europe have expressed concern that the project would strengthen Moscow's hand by increasing European reliance on Russian natural gas.

They have also voiced concern that it would reduce gas-transit revenues for Ukraine, damaging the country's fragile economy at a time when its forces are fighting Russia-backed separatists who control part of two eastern provinces.

Nord Stream-2 is dead , Gazprom should stop investment and invest in other projects

US along with Baltic states is using all power to kill the project , yesterday Danish Parliament passed law to stop Nord Stream-2 pipe along its area.

Nord Stream-2 will end up South Stream project where Russian COmpanies put in money and only to find them self shutting off the project and Gasprom loosing $1 billion in bargain.

What is any Realistic Success Rate of Nord Stream-2 ? Other then Germany no one wants it.

How can Russia respond to this? Russia should sabotage American sponsored energy projects too, bleed the American economy until it collapses. This is an act of economic war and Russia needs to retaliate

Austin wrote:U.S. Diplomat Says Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Probably Won't Be Built

https://www.rferl.org/a/us-diplomat-nord-stream-2-wont-be-built/28886312.html

and Obama said that Russian economy is in shambles. And Hitler said in 44 that they specially retreat form east to regroup and better protect Germany
I would take all politicians' statements with a grain of salt.





US sanctions are working on project starting after 2/08/2017 not before? Denmark's forced veto makes Nordstream 2 longer like 15kms in total?
Nobody sanctions buying Russian gas just financing. At the end of the day Russia can finance this itself. It's like 5 years not paying for Ukro Nazi transit. Besides on Yamal and Sakhalin there are being built LNG terminals...

Not to mention that LNG will always be more expensive than pipe gas. Second volumes of gas that can be shipped is in foreseeable future nowhere near what Russia can export. Not sure if Germans like to overpay (unlike Ukrops, Poles or Pribaltika :-) I guess UK market is also interested in increasing volumes.

Austin wrote:...........
What is any Realistic Success Rate of Nord Stream-2 ? Other then Germany no one wants it.

Only country in continental Europe that matters more than two shits and only one who's opinion is relevant.

PapaDragon wrote:

Austin wrote:...........
What is any Realistic Success Rate of Nord Stream-2 ? Other then Germany no one wants it.

Only country in continental Europe that matters more than two shits and only one who's opinion is relevant.

That and Denmark has no territorial waters that would impact Nord Stream II. It seems NATO states have a peculiar
dementia: that they can pass laws that regulate activity outside their jurisdiction.

It's gonna get built. No questions about that. If they decide to play games, then it doesn't matter, Russia can then limit to sales of gas through Nord Stream 1 and then let Europe buy Russian LNG which is more expensive. Once turkstream is build, Russia's gas sales will increase going south and south east towards China. Europe will still demand Russian gas as it is much cheaper than US gas and it comes down to a single point - the one with the cheapest energy, wins. Something Germany understands. Poland does not. But they are subsidized for US LNG till it no longer is beneficial.

Russia is going to dump Ukraine as a transport nation. Or they will play hardball and state that once the gas goes through Russia and into Ukraine, the rest is up to Europe. So in other words, if it gets stolen in Ukraine, Europe pays for that.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Austin wrote:U.S. Diplomat Says Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Probably Won't Be Built

https://www.rferl.org/a/us-diplomat-nord-stream-2-wont-be-built/28886312.html

and Obama said that Russian economy is in shambles. And Hitler said in 44 that they specially retreat form east to regroup and better protect Germany
I would take all politicians' statements with a grain of salt.





US sanctions are working on project starting after 2/08/2017 not before? Denmark's forced veto makes Nordstream 2 longer like 15kms in total?
Nobody sanctions buying Russian gas just financing. At the end of the day Russia can finance this itself. It's like 5 years not paying for Ukro Nazi transit. Besides on Yamal and Sakhalin there are being built LNG terminals...

Not to mention that LNG will always be more expensive than pipe gas. Second volumes of gas that can be shipped is in foreseeable future nowhere near what Russia can export. Not sure if Germans like to overpay (unlike Ukrops, Poles or Pribaltika :-) I guess UK market is also interested in increasing volumes.

In intent of US , EC and Baltic Countries is to stop buying any Russian Gas for all intent and purpose and they are targetting Nord Stream-2 for it.

Russia is simply wasting time on EU , if they dont want Russian Gas so be it why spend own money on that they would just sabotage the pipeline or will come with some other excuse.

Just sell new Gas to China and Turkey based on new pipe line under construction , Increase use of Gas for internal consumption and rest sell via LNG.

Russian Oligarch and Putin are beholded to EU and would push the Gas pipeline till they encounter a resistance they cannot break in end wasting precious Money as in case of South Stream and Time.

miketheterrible wrote:It's gonna get built.  No questions about that.  If they decide to play games, then it doesn't matter, Russia can then limit to sales of gas through Nord Stream 1 and then let Europe buy Russian LNG which is more expensive.  Once turkstream is build, Russia's gas sales will increase going south and south east towards China.  Europe will still demand Russian gas as it is much cheaper than US gas and it comes down to a single point - the one with the cheapest energy, wins.  Something Germany understands.  Poland does not.  But they are subsidized for US LNG till it no longer is beneficial.

Russia is going to dump Ukraine as a transport nation.  Or they will play hardball and state that once the gas goes through Russia and into Ukraine, the rest is up to Europe.  So in other words, if it gets stolen in Ukraine, Europe pays for that.

I agree, no more NATO asswipe coddling. Russia will also save $3 billion US per year which it has to pay Banderastan in transit fees. Let
Banderastan's bestest new pals pay it.

Central Bank: five Russian companies want to place "green" bonds on the Moscow stock exchange

MOSCOW, December 1. / TASS /. Large Russian companies are interested in placing "green" bonds on the Moscow stock exchange, the head of the department for the development of financial markets of the Central Bank Elena Chaikovskaya told reporters at the financial forum of Vedomosti .
"Five big Russian companies are thinking about this," she said.
According to Tchaikovsky, "the paper can be placed in rubles." "The calculation is that foreign investors will buy the securities," she added.
In the Russian market, green bonds have not been issued yet, although the Ministry of Natural Resources is in favor of the appearance of such a tool. At the end of October, Anna Kuznetsova, managing director of the Moscow stock exchange, told TASS that the trading platform is exploring the possibility of launching a trading sector with such securities.


Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4777062

That is good news only "possibly in Rubles" sucks. Like in London you can trade in Pesos or Shanghai in Tungriks

Austin wrote:

In intent of US , EC and Baltic Countries is to stop buying any Russian Gas for all intent and purpose and they are targetting Nord Stream-2 for it.

Russia is simply wasting time on EU , if they dont want Russian Gas so be it why spend own money on that they would just sabotage the pipeline or will come with some other excuse.

Just sell new Gas to China and Turkey based on new pipe line under construction , Increase use of Gas for internal consumption and rest sell via LNG.

Russian Oligarch and Putin are beholded to EU and would push the Gas pipeline till they encounter a resistance they cannot break in end wasting precious Money as in case of South Stream and Time.

/Thsi below is apart form oligarchs/Putin theme just my view about Nordstream projects.


EC as European Commission where reside countries like Pribaltics, Romania, Poland or Scandinavian Russophobes YES. If you mean business European Community NO.
Nope this is not wasting time, EU is main so far market. Will be very important one too in the future. Volumes for gas are increasing. What's more building Nordstream-2 can
1) bring lotsa lotsa money
2) increase trade volumes with European countries thus binding them closer to Russian interests
3) Bury faster Ukronaziine USproject and counter US interests
4) drive a wedge between ardent Russhobes and normal EU countries

Then no no wasting resources.

Russia looking to sell to Europe is also ideal and as posted by Gunship, it is to increase Russia's hold on Europe and to help give Europe that second opinion before Europe does something real stupid. But of course various parties whom are idiotic and diehard Russian haters (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, etc) are doing what they can to drive that wedge. France, Germany, Hungary, etc are all interested in NordStream 2. If they screw that up, then essentially they will have to go ahead with whatever pipelines still exist but the Ukrainian pipeline will probably end up as Europes problem, not Russia's. Europe wont like that but too fucking bad for them.

Eventually, the Turkstream can be extended to greece and then when that happens (Greece will definitely like that cause it brings in lots of money for them), then it will go into Europe how the south stream was supposed to.

The Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation revealed violations in the year of 1.57 trillion rubles

https://iz.ru/679112/2017-12-04/schetnaia-palata-rf-vyiavila-v-2017-godu-narushenii-na-15-trln-rub

The Audit Chamber of Russia revealed in 2017 more than 3.9 thousand financial violations amounting to 1.556 trillion rubles. This was announced at the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin by the head of the joint venture Tatyana Golikova.

"If last year there were 3855 [violations] in the amount of 965 billion rubles, now - 3908 violations in the amount of 1.556 trillion rubles," - says "RIA Novosti" words Golikova.

According to the head of the joint venture, two-thirds of the damage is considered potential, because they were prevented. Golikova also pointed to the growth in the number of administrative cases brought against the regulator's materials - 243 cases (+ 7.5%).

Concerns with the joint venture are caused by the growth of the number of budget institutions by 24.5%. Golikova noted that this complicates the control over the expenditure of the state budget.

Golikova also invited the head of state to review priorities in state financing in favor of socially important tasks. In her opinion, this will avoid unnecessary costs.

Does that mean Audit detected 1.5 trillion worth of Fraud on Government ? Is that the amount of Loss that Russian Government faced due to such frauds ?

That would be a huge loss for the government , hopefully these people are in Jails !

Well, 2/3 are prevented so they were only potential losses and not actual losses. But the numbers show that what the damage could have been and that is worrying. I imagine that if 2/3 of the cases were prevented, then that means a lot of people were probably given a major fine or jail time.

Sounds good hope they are in jail !

James Rickards // Gold -- The Past and Future Money