Russian Economy General News: #9

Damn! Putin fanboys relay want to be isolated in their bubble. Did you hear that mods, miketheterrible wants al criticism of Putin policies or appointments banned  from this forum. You better indulge him or he is going to get angry!

I love opening this tread so I can not read about economy....

PapaDragon wrote:
I love opening this tread so I can not read about economy....

That is essentially what has happened to this forum. Lots of people giving their uninformed opinions not related to reality, and constant trolling. Instead of news and actual numbers/evidence.

ZoA wrote:You see very fact that Vann himself is pushing this xenophobic line shows how bad idea it is.

I read that stement by Vann, several times from top to bottom. He is about 95% correct.

par far wrote:

ZoA wrote:You see very fact that Vann himself is pushing this xenophobic line shows how bad idea it is.

I read that stement by Vann, several times from top to bottom. He is about 95% correct.

Yours, his, ours do not constitute reality. Opinions is just that, opinions. You see, this is a Russian based forums. How many people here are actually Russians living in Russia? With maybe the exception of Flaming Python, no one else. So stating what constitutes is correct or not about what happens in Russia isn't correct or truth or anything.

"Former economy minister Ulyukayev jailed for 8 years over $2 million bribe begins sentence."

https://www.rt.com/politics/428358-former-economy-minister-ulyukayev/

miketheterrible wrote:

par far wrote:

ZoA wrote:You see very fact that Vann himself is pushing this xenophobic line shows how bad idea it is.

I read that stement by Vann, several times from top to bottom. He is about 95% correct.

Yours, his, ours do not constitute reality.  Opinions is just that, opinions.  You see, this is a Russian based forums.  How many people here are actually Russians living in Russia?  With maybe the exception of Flaming Python, no one else.  So stating what constitutes is correct or not about what happens in Russia isn't correct or truth or anything.

You are right, I should have said "In my opinion Vann is about 95% right." It would nice to have more people from Russia on this forum.

So now, all aluminium from Rusal is gonna be with official UAE stamps? And sold to the same clients but without any extra tariffs??

Russia and the UAE will continue to coordinate the situation on the world aluminum market

MOSCOW, June 1 - RIA Novosti. Russia and the UAE intend to continue coordination on the situation on the world aluminum market, the declaration on the strategic partnership signed following the talks in the Kremlin between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammad Al Nahyan says.

The US, having justified this by considerations of national security, introduced import duties on steel in the amount of 25% and aluminum in the amount of 10% in March, giving a delay to a number of countries. On the last day of May, Washington introduced these duties practically for everyone, including the EU and Canada. In addition, under the US sanctions in early April, Russia's "Rusal" got. According to earlier estimates of the American side, Russia is one of the largest suppliers of aluminum in the US: it accounts for 12.5% ​​of US imports, for the UAE - 9.1% of supplies, about the same for Canada.
"The parties confirm the desire to further establish cooperation in other areas, in particular in the field of industry," the declaration says. One of the mechanisms for cooperation in this area is described as follows: "Continuation of coordination on the situation in the world aluminum market, including within the framework of the specialized working group on cooperation in the field of aluminum industry."

РИА Новости https://ria.ru/economy/20180601/1521896894.html

miketheterrible wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Hole wrote: Hole wrote: Please stop this shit about corruption and ineffectiveness. Western BS.

Also, to bitch about Kudrin going to take down Russia economically, is stupid. Replying to ZoA is stupid

Yes, I love you too

When you win battles, you make contracts.

But sometimes the contract itself is a win.

well well well suddenly all is possible, right?

Kozak: reducing excise taxes on oil products will not require a reduction in budget expenditures

The Vice-Premier added that the oil companies gave guarantees of fixing prices for raw materials

MOSCOW, June 2. / TASS /. The need to reduce federal budget expenditures due to the reduction of excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel is absent. This is the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said in an interview with the program "News on Saturday . "

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/5257528

Hole wrote:But sometimes the contract itself is a win.

There is a chickin and egg story - you wont get rich being weak,  you dont get strong without being rich    yet some countries can do this
I have listened yesterday to  2 radio talks.
1) with Glazyev
2) Khazin

There are some interesting correlation in both opinions: "Putin will closely watch progress and be hard on fails and  Kudrin and Suilianov are ok in their roles" .  Waht's more Kudrin is a) feeling where the wind blows b) his ego and hones dislike of Medvedyev will make him an excellent foxhound to trace money and spending...  an dtime is scarce
OK Glazyev was more bitching aboutSuiliaov but mainy about CBR. Siulianov is not good for letting money to flow to industry without sealing leeks. but with IT (IMHO it is gonna be about block-chain) you can easily trace each ruble .



TheoOther stuff - priority investment, usage reserves as  source of money.



To me Glazyev is a bit dreamer to make Russia so quick independent form dollar. As long as the whole world dis $ based it is not doable with acceptable risk. But I agree with Khazin that   Tronald Dump is greatly speeding up dedolarrization of world's economy and division on world "power centers".

Getting rid of the Dollar needs time. The BRICS and SCO countries are behind it. To fast would hurt them. If you destroy the system, the IOU´s of Amiland will be useless. With the west and its vasalls still believing in it, the trillions of reserves in China, Russia and elsewhere can be used to build something usefull.

Hole wrote:Getting rid of the Dollar needs time. The BRICS and SCO countries are behind it. To fast would hurt them. If you destroy the system, the IOU´s of Amiland will be useless. With the west and its vasalls still believing in it, the trillions of reserves in China, Russia and elsewhere can be used to build something usefull.

The dollar less system will be a different world than today.

There will be way less international trade, as starting point.

It is not just different colours, but the same car.

It will be like without car : )

Singular_Transform wrote:

Hole wrote:Getting rid of the Dollar needs time. The BRICS and SCO countries are behind it. To fast would hurt them. If you destroy the system, the IOU´s of Amiland will be useless. With the west and its vasalls still believing in it, the trillions of reserves in China, Russia and elsewhere can be used to build something usefull.

The dollar less system will be a different world than today.

There will be way less international trade, as starting point.

It is not just different colours, but the same car.

It will be like without car : )

What are you going on about. One fiat currency is as good as any other. The dollar does not generate the global economy.
The global economy, for now, creates demand for dollars. You sound like a monetarist on PCP.

PCP???

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

To me Glazyev is a bit dreamer to make Russia so quick independent form dollar. As long as the whole world dis $ based it is not doable with acceptable risk. But I agree with Khazin that   Tronald Dump is greatly speeding up dedolarrization of world's economy and division on world "power centers".

He was the same "Expert" who was saying that if he had a gun ,will kill Elvira Nabiullina to save the Russian Economy
and the Central bank because she was a "Traitor" and was not obeying orders of Putin of a paycard system to bypass Swiff.. Well he was wrong.. the national pay card system is already operating in Russia and Nabiullina herself told ,Russia is ready to switch from Swiff system whenever she is requested to do it.

This shows to me that Russia Central Bank is not truly Independent of Russia at all ,as many claimed.. But instead,
the Russian government can influence it enormously.. and even nationalize it at any time it wish..   

In other words is not all Black or White.. patriot or traitor.. there are millions of colors possibilities between them..
There could be 5th column in Russia like Kudrin that will not like to see Russia destroyed and they see things differently.. For example i Do agree with Kudrin calls for privatization of Russia energy business , i think Putin should sell the government part of Germany and France , that way will make it sanctions proof.. because it will be
not a Russian Company. The main reason for US to target Russia energy industry is Because RUSSIA ECONOMY
largely depends on it... but if Russia Economy did not benefit at all from Energy business , then they will have no benefit in targeting something that will not affect Russia economy at all..  Privatization of Russia energy industry ,should be a major goal...and ask a lot of money  for selling it..and Russia live happy with just taxes for every barrel of oil extracted from Russia. and if a major war happens and Europe takes the side of US , then Russia can nationalize their energy industry back again.. and for free..

So Russia needs to sell those pipelines to Nations Russia knows will benefit greatly with having good relations with them.. like Germany and France and ITALY and Austria ,and Greece ,most of Europe will benefit
more from a Strong Russia ,than a weak one.. because Russia can help enormously with the Independence of Europe.. can protect Europe from United states if they one day ,take the decision to split from US.  Europe by now knows ,the hard way..after the Iranian broken deal , that US is a dangerous nation , that they can't trust and that will not respect their interest , so most of Europe transition to a full Independence from US, can only be possible with the help of Russia and CHina too. the  better Russia and China do economically ,the better for Europe. and the worse for the American Ambitions of a global Empire.

WHen it comes to Gazyev he is wrong.. If Russia disconnect from the US banking system by its own initiative ,
and close relations with Europe.. Russia will be a self isolation of Russia from the world. this will make things
way more easier for United States to get Europe under its full control.. because Europe will not switch to the Russian train.. the Russian orbit , the Russian world order ,unless Russia have First an Alternative system running..
or at very least a clear roadmap ,with a relative predictable low risk future..

how are Russians going to buy the things they love so much from American business? American movies and music and Computers?  Disconnecting from US means US will cut Russia from Internet too , and disconnection from all the technology that US business sells and the bussiness that American vassals allies like Europe ,Korea and Japan sells.. So Glazyev is asking for Russia to become the new North korea.. to isolate its business from the west..  

So Russia can't do that.. it will only makes things easier for Americans to defeat Russia.. This was one of
Soviet Union biggest mistakes.. the self isolation.. Europe will do its best to not allow Americans to isolate Russia ,because that will threaten their own existence too. Is better that Russia do things Right.. and make sure is fully prepared for its TRUE Independence switching away from the American world.. and only when it is clear for them.. that Europe no longer have any hope..  But Russia can't become Truly independent unless the short sight President ,takes more seriously the development of Russia economy..and move a way ,from a nation that largely depends its economy in commodities,  that export Bananas and Gas discounts, to a nation that leads the Space race and the world development in innovative technology . and have a real strong alternative to American High Tech giants in the IT and semiconductor business that until now had no competition in the world. So Russia needs to prepare for the switch to create its own System with help of China ,to teach Europe ,they have no reason to continue attached to such destructive American system.. that together with Russia ,they can beat United states.

In more news.. It looks more and more , that US is going to commit suicide.. at full speed..

https://sputniknews.com/world/201806021065035086-russia-nord-stream-2-us-sanctions/

This is a serious mistake US is doing... and im shocked they will try it.. US have no chance to become ever
a world empire ,by showing their true face of a fascist Tyranny ,that will not respect European interest and
sovereignty, too early ,when they have not consolidated yet their control of Europe.. This will lead into a major
Negative image of US in Europe .this is like reversing all the gains Americans achieved in Leadership.. until know..
To sabotage European legitimate Energy business with Russia , on top of a trade war , and on top of the sabotage on other business of Europe with IRAN ,will be the most strongest message possible for Europe.. that if they continue following the US empire , it will threaten their own nation existence.  So now Europe needs to work
fast to develop an exist /divorce strategy from US dollar ,and temporarily break relations and restart relations
with RUssia and China.. This is their only hope.. IF a women support a husband that beat her every day..and don't do anything about it..  this will eventually lead to her being killed.. So this is the situation of Europe today.. They now know , US can't be trusted ,and their sovereignty will not be respected and that US control over Europe needs to be stopped before is too late..  By Putin/RUssia being patient .. and staying in the American+EUrope banking system , it have allowed Russia to expose United states the real way ,their global order will work.. a fascist totalitarian dictatorship ,where Europe only role will be a parking for American warships and to become the meat shield of Americans.. in their fight against Russia. So now all is visible , Europe knows now , it can't continue
allowing Americans to control their policies and they now working to find a way how to retake their sovereignty..
and this is really good news.. not only for Europeans , and Russia but also for Americans citizens too and the entire world.. Now Europe is totally clear , that a one world Government system will never work..Europe believed ,they will have a leadership place too , in the american world,,but not anymore.and  when you have even UK
in the opposing side of US policies and all latin american too ...then you will have the british wondering if it will be worth of it.. to continue aiding US ,to consolidate its controls over the world.


So one of  my theory is Trump is on purpose trying to destroy the American empire ,and only teaching Europe ,
they need to become independent. or maybe Trump advisors ,wants him to fail and ill advice Trump in foreign policy ,so that US economy falls and trump blamed for it.and lose the next elections. Whatever is the case..  What is clear is that Europe today knows ,it needs an alliance with Russia and China
more than ever and retake their sovereignty .  they know Without Europe support NATO can't exist..
and American bases not even allowed to have warships in Europe .. This is the biggest cards to play for Europe..
the drop of the American dollar and they threatening to leave NATO and make an alliance with China and Russia.
and if India is smart.. it will join also that alliance. Since the future of the world is now at Risk.. the policies Europes adopt in 2018 and 2019 will dramatically change the future world economy and world order for many decades..

In summary things are becoming really ugly.. i do see Europe today like never before.. i can sense their panic
and their alarm.. never expected to see this major split in relations ,like the one we see today.. this is historical
times we are living .. Is a major breaking point in Europe present history.. and i do feel ,that germany will be
the one more attacked and hit..

Major signs to observe that the tectonic shift in the world order is already happening?
and that Germany and France will be switching to the Russian orbit , or at least partially
switch when it comes to economy ,a more integration with Russian business?

1)Major civil unrest in France and Germany... financed by US.
2)Major Sanctions on their business..
3)major terror attacks on Germany and France tourism..by ISIS..
4)Chemical attacks on Germany and France
5) German automobile industry leaving US.
6)Germany counter sanctions on US automobile industry.
7)Major NATO drills in Europe like never before ,specially in Germany with tanks.. to bullish and scare merkel..
8)New air defenses deployed in Germany , psicological warfare ,and harrass merkel plane..
9)New major Corruption scandals against macron and merkel
10)Major protest Europe wide against NATO military bases in Europe...
This protest against NATO should be the defacto ultimate event.. ultimate proof ,that relations
are broken completely.. and that Europe is seeking to totally split from US.

Good news is Russia can help europe to overcome any crysis and hold.. the bad news is that
Europe could be too slow in their reaction and if they seek an alliance with Russia too late it could be
too late.. and too much damage already done.. but if you see and read that US and Europe reached
an "agreement of cooperation" will likely mean Europe capitulated to US demands.. or that US got scared
by the European response.

AlfaT8 wrote:PCP???

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phencyclidine

One would have to be on PCP to think the US dollar generates the global economy. Is it supposed to be like manna form
heaven or something?

kvs wrote:

Singular_Transform wrote:

Hole wrote:Getting rid of the Dollar needs time. The BRICS and SCO countries are behind it. To fast would hurt them. If you destroy the system, the IOU´s of Amiland will be useless. With the west and its vasalls still believing in it, the trillions of reserves in China, Russia and elsewhere can be used to build something usefull.

The dollar less system will be a different world than today.

There will be way less international trade, as starting point.

It is not just different colours, but the same car.

It will be like without car : )

What are you going on about. One fiat currency is as good as any other. The dollar does not generate the global economy.
The global economy, for now, creates demand for dollars. You sound like a monetarist on PCP.

Not the fiat or not fiat currency is the most interesting.

The government, that willing to run a trade deficit on grand scale is the necessary condition to have this level of international trade.

Without that there is no money in the international system to run the trade.

And it the USA trade policy is NOT good for the average USA citizen, it is good to keep in motion the global empire.


And due to this reason there is no one in eu,russia,china,india,japan,taiwan,indonesia,iran,brazil,argenitna and so on who willing tu run deficit this level like to USA.


But it is easy, if there is no dollar, how can a trader get say rouble to buy good for sale?
Russia running trade surplus, means if there is no dollar then Russia can't sell more goods than it buy after it bought up on the market all rouble dominated loan .

Means a trader can't use the rouble to buy Indonesian textiles to sell in Germany, simply there is no rouble in the markets .

Actually, without fiat currency you can have the same effect.


The Spanish in the 15th century run a trade deficit with the leftover of europe, in gold.

They collected the gold in the Americas, and they stimulated the economy of Dutch, france, germany by running traded deficit.

As soon as the flow of gold decreased they was in trouble.

In this case the US power over the world will dismiss as the USA trade deficit decrease compared to the size of the world economy.

Singular_Transform wrote:In this case the US power over the world will dismiss as the USA trade deficit decrease compared to the size of the world economy.

I think so but this wont be without trouble. First of all US military will not let it go so smoothly.Mind that Iraq and Libya had one thing in common - they tried switch payments from $ to another currencies.
Second after IIWW the world economy is based on $ ,as long as there is no alternative rejecting any $ usage hurts you more then you hurt USA.


That's why I think that stories tht Nabiulina invests in $ is treason is a fairly premature conclusion.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Singular_Transform wrote:In this case the US power over the world will dismiss as the USA trade deficit decrease compared to the size of the world economy.

I think so but this wont be without trouble. First of all US military will not let it go so smoothly.Mind that Iraq and Libya had one thing in common - they tried switch payments from $ to another currencies.
Second after IIWW the world economy is based on $ ,as long as there is no alternative rejecting any $ usage hurts you more then you hurt USA.


That's why I think that stories tht Nabiulina invests in $ is treason is a fairly premature conclusion.

Describe how the stoppage of US dollar acquisitions by the CBR will hurt Russia "more".

This is not the 1980s and Russia does not need "hard currency" to buy wheat.

Russia to double gold extraction becoming world's second biggest producer

https://www.rt.com/business/428571-russia-gold-production-double/

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Hole wrote: Hole wrote: Please stop this shit about corruption and ineffectiveness. Western BS.

Also, to bitch about Kudrin going to take down Russia economically, is stupid. Replying to ZoA is stupid

Yes, I love you too

What can I tell you, nobody likes a bearer of bad news. But unless one like to live in a self made bubble of "everything is going to be fine, glorious leader knows what he is doing" one must not blind himself from obvious disasters looming on the horizon.

This is why we have utterly illogical behaviours demonstrated here. For example same people that think it will be perfectly fine and without consequence to have US 5th column to control Russia's economy also get all hysterical because some Muslims had some kids. Or miketheterrible that is complaining there are non Russians commenting on Russian affairs on English language forums, while his is too not Russian and is commenting about Russian affairs on the same forum. And nobody blinks an eye on warped expectations and contradictions.


However macroeconomic factors clearly indicate that planed policies that will be enforced by new government will result in massive economic collapse and unemployment crisis during next half a decade.

First is labur demant in Russia, that has been largely stagnant for the past half a decade:

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/employed-persons

Largely as a consequence of stagnant aggregate demand:

Aggregate demand is formed form several factors. First is average real wages (adjusted for inflation) multiplied by number of employed. We have already established number of employed is largely stagnant but average real wage for the past decade is also not doing all that good:

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/wage-growth

We can see sense 2009 wage growth is fairly inconsistent with occasional significant declines.

Next factor is government spending. Pretty much it is planed to be stagnant, so there will be no aggregate demand increase form that direction:

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-spending/forecast

There are 3 other areas that might affect aggregate demand.

First is expansion of export markets. Given globally stagnant economic growth, low Ruble inflation and efforts of US and EU to push out Russia out of markets this source is not only not going to grow, it is likely to decline.

Next is pushing out imports from domestic market and substitution with domestic manufacturing. This was main source of real industrial growth in Russia during last half a decade. However new Russian government shows it is no longer interested in substitution. New counter sanctions that are necessary to fuel substitution are watered down and delayed, as is inflation rate that is to low to promote import substitution. In fact recent economic summit made it clear Russia is "open for businesses" and will not promote it's domestic industry at the expense of foreign competitors. So there will be no respite coming to Russian industry from there any longer.

Final source of increased aggregate demand is private sector going it to debt to finance expansion and operations. But given high interest rates of banking controlled by US 5th column (Gref, Nabiullina), and general objectivity pessimistic prospects of increasing demand coming form other sources, there will be no serious expansion of demand coming from going it to debt either.  

So in short Russian economy will not expand its labour demand because there is no aggregate demand to absorb increased output generated by new workers. At the same time Russian government plans to expand it's labour supply by some +10% by increasing retirement age. As anyone that knows what happens to price of commodity  when it increases supply with stagnant demand also knows wages of Russian workers will nosedive and unemployment will surge rapidly. Falling wages will additional reduce aggregate demand triggering positive feedback loop and complete system might fall in spiral of declining wages and demand with surging unemployment.

Queue in US orchestrated colour revolution and nationalist xenophobic gangs in to that situation and there is not much to imagine what will happen next. We have seen it in USSR, Yugoslavia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Tunis, Egypt, Libya, Syria and so on.  

Alas most of you dont like to be troubled with obvious consequences of those polices, instead you are more concerned with phantom Muslim boogeyman hiding in your closet or under your bed.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Singular_Transform wrote:In this case the US power over the world will dismiss as the USA trade deficit decrease compared to the size of the world economy.

I think so but this wont be without trouble. First of all US military will not let it go so smoothly.Mind that Iraq and Libya had one thing in common - they tried switch payments from $ to another currencies.
Second after IIWW the world economy is based on $ ,as long as there is no alternative rejecting any $ usage hurts you more then you hurt USA.


That's why I think that stories tht Nabiulina invests in $ is treason is a fairly premature conclusion.

It works by the opposite way.


The US maintained its dominance over the world trade by maintaining the biggest navy in the wolrd, and be capable to close/open trade routes anywhere.

Now it severely challenged, they can't close down the NK trade routes example.

The US external debt has to considered in the context, anyone willing to lend money and use the US dollar BECAUSE they can pay it back, and they can keep the flow of dollar dominated trade open.

Now, the Iranian debt not worth as much as the US , considering the US can block the Iranian payment by goods over sea.

As soon as Russia, India, Iran,China , Brazil posses big enough Navy to block the local activity of the US the dollar as trade currency will dismiss, and the current global trade will collapse.

kvs wrote:Describe how the stoppage of US dollar acquisitions by the CBR will hurt Russia "more".

This is not the 1980s and Russia does not need "hard currency" to buy wheat.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/external-debt

Russia's "hard currency" debt is still over half of trillion $. You need some liquidity, you need to service debts, you need to be able to buy components. All is traded in $ and goes through correspondent accounts in US banks (or banks having accounts there) and SWIFT. We also dont know anything about all behind scenes negotiations ( I mean arm twisting, blackmails and open threats of military force) ].

I believe that with sealing Russian fiscal system and improving priority projects money will flow much stronger stream to economy. Current experience is no best at this. Check even with Glazyev.

Unless you are talking about level they are to follow money and keep wallet clean as much as you can. Is she perfect CBR head? meh. But we cannot rejct rationale against all people calling this treason. Besides Putin for some reason still keeps her on place...