Russian Economy General News: #10

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:I will contest this
Give me examples. Cause official numbers in west (Canada) may look Rosey but it isn't.  Best way is to compare debt and money saved between each other.

Im gld you did contest, otherwise forum is boring:). I dont claim that anywhere is rosy, especially for youngsters.  Yet still in Russia ratio for GDP/interest rate looks rather worse then in the west. In my IMHO That's why Uncle Vova is proposing all mother capitals on other supports for youngsters.  

Russian family pays 3x more total interest on mortgage  loan  than Canadian and 5x more than a German  one.

Of course I can be wrong too. What other criteria would you suggest?


Rationale behind my opinion please find below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

.................................GDP PPP per capita....................CB.interest.rate
Germany.....................$.50,206............................................0.%
Canada.......................$.48,141............................................1,8.%
Russia........................$.27,890.............................................7,75%

lets assume  mortgage loan rate CB + 3 % , proprty is $(PPP)100,000
https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/loan-calculator.aspx

Germany

3%

Monthly Payments........$ 474.21
Total Principal Paid.......$100,000
Total Interest Paid....$42,263.39

Canada

5%
Monthly Payments.......$ 584.59
Total Principal Paid......$100,000
Total Interest Paid...$75,377.01

Russia

11%

Monthly Payments........$ 980.11
Total Principal Paid.......$100,000
Total Interest Paid.......$194,033.92

Ah, I see you are referring to interest here.  OK, then things are indeed tad different.  Right now interest here for mortgages are fluctuating.  But where are your monthly payments coming from?  Mortgage monthly payments are average of about $1,300 per month, not 584.59 per month.  I pay $1,500 per month for our house.  That is just the house.  Not to mention utilities which are significantly more expensive than in Russia as example.  City I live in is also not the most expensive in Canada either.  Even Winnipeg average house is $350,000.  Average 1 bedroom apartment is $180,000CAD.  Mortgages start at 25 years average from 3 - 5 years before have to renegotiate interests.

As for PPP our currency dropped by over 25% so those numbers are rather old.  PPP takes into consideration of domestic economy and consumption thus prices can drop or increase.  Ours increased.  Why?  For some reason they assumed that materials should be within USD and not CAD even if they are local.  Hence why homes that were at least $300,000 are now over $500,000.  Even my home jumped initially from $350,000 to over $450,000. That of course has more to do with the speculators on behest of the realstate agents.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Austin wrote:Financial intelligence estimates at $ 20 trillion the shadow economy in Russia

Подробнее на РБК:
https://www.rbc.ru/economics/22/02/2019/5c6c16d99a79477be70257ee

The volume of the shadow economy in Russia last year exceeded 20 trillion rubles. and amounted to about 20% of the country's GDP, follows from a preliminary assessment of Rosfinmonitoring, which RBC has learned

Im glad I was right.  The good news is that this also means Russian economy can jump 20% till 2024. Mind also regular growth then
 GDP could really grow ~6,000Tn by 2024

Hole wrote:The difference between Russia and the west is that in the west no politician cares.

That's the difference between democratic government and authorization regime .


Democracy doesn't care - if you die immigrants replace you. Russia (at least establishment supporting Putin)  -  prefers to support own nation.

Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success. How do you bring it into overall economy. In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

Will only really change imo once interest rates drop tbh. And more capital control in housing market. The private market on all sides (ours and Russia's) is getting ridiculous in increasing prices in housing which is uncalled for and has little means behind it other than overall greed.

Well SME's are increasing and government did state that government institutions are giving more contracts to SME's so that should help reduce grey economy.

Russia’s 5G Conundrum

https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

I thought its already made clear that Rostec has the capacity to manufacture local equipments for 5g tech in Russia? If not then Russia has to play dirty and steal both Huawei and Cisco tech. They should have done that years ago to keep up with competitors in this industry.

Nibiru wrote:
I thought its already made clear that Rostec has the capacity to manufacture local equipments for 5g tech in Russia? If not then Russia has to play dirty and steal both Huawei and Cisco tech. They should have done that years ago to keep up with competitors in this industry.

Why play dirty? Just buy Huawei.

miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. (Just wondering...)

Austin wrote:Russia’s 5G Conundrum

https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

Huawei's tech is the best out there and the accusation that Huawei stole this tech from Cisco and other precious western companies
is pure BS. I am sure that China ripped off some tech IP in the past. But the reason Huawei is dominating the market is not because
of "dumping" but because of superior features. That is why Washington is spazzing out. It can't compete and NATO are the ultimate
sore losers.

If find the "spying via hardware" claims to be childish. It is possible to strip down any hardware to its ICs and subject them to extensive
tests to find "hidden features". When we talk about military monkey models that NATO sells, the customers know they are getting compromised
tech but they have no choice (unless they buy from Russia). And 3rd world countries don't have the research budgets to deconstruct
hardware even if they have the indigenous talent. America has not been able to demonstrate a single example of hardware spying in
Huawei's hardware. For all its shrieking, sanctions and false-legal kidnappings it should put up or shut up. Instead, it is invoking some
spying on Cisco from 15 years ago.

I am quite sure that America steals Russian high tech on a regular basis. This includes the materials science technology that allowed
cell phones to be downsized and commercialized. At the same time it spreads defamatory propaganda bout how inferior Russians are.

Kimppis wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. (Just wondering...)

How little you know: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwju7a6rqNLgAhVmCDQIHafoCTIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2014%2Fjun%2F10%2Faccounting-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules&psig=AOvVaw1yEc0YmYTC-08IQRF4QJQ7&ust=1551027098829571

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Austin wrote:Russia’s 5G Conundrum

https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

So US agent from liberal HSE is concerned with Huawei but not CISCO / Checkpoint  spywres? how sweet
Jeff Schubert, a Visiting Professor at the Higher School of Economics National Research University in Moscow,


seriously radio parts will be passing info massively to  China? or let radio parts to be infiltrated by China?

And the moron has zero idea of Russian production. This has been posted long ago but aimed at radar but was invested mostly for 5G technology

https://rostec.ru/news/4521887/

miketheterrible wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Austin wrote:Russia’s 5G Conundrum

https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

So US agent from liberal HSE is concerned with Huawei but not CISCO / Checkpoint  spywres? how sweet
Jeff Schubert, a Visiting Professor at the Higher School of Economics National Research University in Moscow,


seriously radio parts will be passing info massively to  China? or let radio parts to be infiltrated by China?

And the moron has zero idea of Russian production. This has been posted long ago but aimed at radar but was invested mostly for 5G technology

https://rostec.ru/news/4521887/

Gallium-nitride transistors. Yep, Russia is so far behind everyone.

At this stage every freaking journalist and pundit from any country has to be discounted a priori. They all
spout defamatory BS about Russia. It must be in their genes. When some source is found to actually give objective
coverage, then they can be white-listed.

miketheterrible wrote:

Kimppis wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. (Just wondering...)

How little you know: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwju7a6rqNLgAhVmCDQIHafoCTIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2014%2Fjun%2F10%2Faccounting-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules&psig=AOvVaw1yEc0YmYTC-08IQRF4QJQ7&ust=1551027098829571

So Russia's GDP is 20% bigger than the official one. But as I have posted about numerous times, I do not consider the official Russian GDP to be
legitimate. There has been a systematic over-estimation of inflation in Russia's economy for the last 20 years. This results from the BS assumption
that all prices in the economy transition to market levels in under one year. Jeffrey Sachs and he Harvard monetarist boys instilled this myth into
the brains of Russian reformer saps back in the early 1990s (which gave us shock therapy and collapse of Russia's GDP by 50%).

Perhaps food and consumer junk prices in Russia have adjusted on a short time scale. But it is clear that other prices, for example industrial
production related to the military and even other non-consumer sector prices, have shown decadal time scale transitions. So prices in Russia
have been subject to structural adjustment growth from non-market and non-existent levels back in 1990. This is not inflation regardless of
what monetarist twats claim. Inflation is defined as price growth in an equilibrated economic system. Specifically capitalist economies where
prices have meaning and are not decoupled from production and consumption as in command economies.

If the above is too obscure, think of transitioning from barter to cash payments. Before no money existed and after there was money. If this
is inflation, then it is infinite. In reality, new money was issued (printed) to monetize the transaction. The only way to evaluate actual
impact on the GDP would be to see if physical goods and services turnover remained stagnant, shrank or increased. For such structural adjustment
to be categorized as inflation would require the GDP to shrink to zero. Clearly this is nonsense.

Since the CBR and the Ministry of Finance never once mention the above, and given the rather obvious detachment of official GDP growth from
facts on the ground (how well people are doing, e.g. number jobs and pay), I am right in concluding that they are using the wrong CPI and PPI
figures and hence systematically overestimate the GDP deflator. My estimate is that the Russian PPP GDP is about $6 trillion.

Before laughing at such a small number, recall that the US GDP is basically offshore due to global dominance of US transnationals as well as
the singular place of the US dollar as a reserve currency (petrodollar). GDP includes offshore economic activity unlike GNP, which
is why use of GNP was dropped. It is not valid to divide the US GDP by the US population to get a GDP per capita to compare to the rest of
the world. American citizens in all likelihood do not see 50% of their "national" GDP.

Russia defence budget in terms of PPP

https://romeosquared.eu/2018/06/04/russias-military-budget-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-gdp-of-spain/

Russia defence budget in terms of PPP

https://romeosquared.eu/2018/06/04/russias-military-budget-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-gdp-of-spain/

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

Kimppis wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. (Just wondering...)

How little you know: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwju7a6rqNLgAhVmCDQIHafoCTIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2014%2Fjun%2F10%2Faccounting-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules&psig=AOvVaw1yEc0YmYTC-08IQRF4QJQ7&ust=1551027098829571

So Russia's GDP is 20% bigger than the official one.   But as I have posted about numerous times, I do not consider the official Russian GDP to be
legitimate.   There has been a systematic over-estimation of inflation in Russia's economy for the last 20 years.   This results from the BS assumption
that all prices in the economy transition to market levels in under one year.    Jeffrey Sachs and he Harvard monetarist boys instilled this myth into
the brains of Russian reformer saps back in the early 1990s (which gave us shock therapy and collapse of Russia's GDP by 50%).  

Perhaps food and consumer junk prices in Russia have adjusted on a short time scale.   But it is clear that other prices, for example industrial
production related to the military and even other non-consumer sector prices, have shown decadal time scale transitions.    So prices in Russia
have been subject to structural adjustment growth from non-market and non-existent levels back in 1990.   This is not inflation regardless of
what monetarist twats claim.   Inflation is defined as price growth in an equilibrated economic system.   Specifically capitalist economies where
prices have meaning and are not decoupled from production and consumption as in command economies.  

If the above is too obscure, think of transitioning from barter to cash payments.  Before no money existed and after there was money.   If this
is inflation, then it is infinite.   In reality, new money was issued (printed) to monetize the transaction.   The only way to evaluate actual
impact on the GDP would be to see if physical goods and services turnover remained stagnant, shrank or increased.    For such structural adjustment
to be categorized as inflation would require the GDP to shrink to zero.   Clearly this is nonsense.

Since the CBR and the Ministry of Finance never once mention the above, and given the rather obvious detachment of official GDP growth from
facts on the ground (how well people are doing, e.g. number jobs and pay), I am right in concluding that they are using the wrong CPI and PPI
figures and hence systematically overestimate the GDP deflator.    My estimate is that the Russian PPP GDP is about $6 trillion.    

Before laughing at such a small number, recall that the US GDP is basically offshore due to global dominance of US transnationals as well as
the singular place of the US dollar as a reserve currency (petrodollar).   GDP includes offshore economic activity unlike GNP, which
is why use of GNP was dropped.    It is not valid to divide the US GDP by the US population to get a GDP per capita to compare to the rest of
the world.   American citizens in all likelihood do not see 50% of their "national" GDP.  

I always had the theory that the Russian government under Putin does this intentionally.  Many of them do.  It is that concept of under estimation or undermining the numbers.  I think it is to really throw people off intentionally.  Why?  I think it is to really put a fire under everyones ass in Russia.  Its to always keep them on their toes and make sure they do their job rather than be complacent.  It is working IMO as we are reading of development in Russia that is rather very astounding (The Sochi olympics development, the Crimean Bridge, the expansions of the railways (we have not seen such railway development I believe since the times of Chinese slave labor in the west)) and just overall development in all sectors even energy (Russia still imports petrol yet they are building a lot of petrol refineries and plastic plants).  Governors whom are lazy or corrupt are getting arrested now, businesses not following through with orders (Amur shipbuilding plant as example) are being taken to court and forced to give money back and pay additional fees for lying and poor development, etc.

Austin wrote:Russia defence budget in terms of PPP

https://romeosquared.eu/2018/06/04/russias-military-budget-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-gdp-of-spain/

Good article but I think majority of people who know basics of economics would know that GDP Nominal is not really a good calculation anymore and PPP is replacing it.  Simply because PPP takes into account of costs of goods within the country and well, only indicator that is alternative to PPP that is good at calculating this is the Big Mac index.....oddly enough.

But it gives good indication as to Russia's defense spending in corresponding PPP.

From the link Austin posted:



Reason why I say no one cares for GDP Nominal anymore is because of this:

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/117173/

vs Canada:

https://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/refinery-cost-soars-to-9-3-billion-prompting-call-for-auditor-general-review

Austin wrote:Russia defence budget in terms of PPP

https://romeosquared.eu/2018/06/04/russias-military-budget-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-gdp-of-spain/

No, Russia's GDP is not the size of Spain. This clown is an ignoramus who does not understand PPP even though he
refers to it. His whole theory is that Russia spends 4.3% of its GDP on defense while Spain spends 1.2%. If
France, UK and Germany increased their spending on military to 4.3% then it would be much more than Russia. BS.

Actually, the real GDP of the USSR was not several times less than comparable western countries. They always
compare apples to oranges, these clowns. The nominal GDP of the US is not its actual economic productivity
(i.e. GNP) per capita multiplied by its population number. US GNP is much smaller than its extra-territorial bloated
GDP. By contrast, the USSR was subsidizing the eastern European clowns in the Warsaw Pact and all the 3rd world
regimes that supposedly wanted socialism. This is the total opposite of the role of the USA in the world economy,
which is like a giant parasite that gains profit from the 3rd world and even its minions and does not subsidize
them (regardless of all the yapping about how the US shoulders the burden of NATO defense costs).

The standard of living in the USSR was not bad at all. Cheap food and housing and a reasonable access to consumer
goods. If you average the standard of living of Americans during the 1980s, it does not become several times higher
than Soviet citizens. America has a huge poor stratum and a tiny super-rich top layer. And its GDP per capita does
is a meaningless number since the GNP per capita (and thus real jobs and wages) is much smaller. The USSR citizens
could have had a much higher standard of living if the USSR did not spend so much of its resources supporting losers
abroad. One has to correct for such factors if one cares about factual comparisons and not propaganda masturbation.

There is no way Spain would equal the military capacity of Russia if it increased its defense spending to 4.3$ of GDP.
In addition, the title of your link is grossly misleading. The blogger does not even mention that Russian military prices
are much smaller than any western price. A project 636.3 submarine costs six times less than any comparable western
diesel-electric. And don't invoke AIP and other gimmicks as accounting for such a huge price differential. The marginal
utility of AIP is some percentage much less than 100% and does not make the submarine 6 times more potent. In fact,
in terms of actual military utility of the 636.3 it outclasses the German and Japanese submarines that cost 6 times more.
So this f*ckwad blogger fails to notice or deliberately omits that PPP varies across different economic sectors. But
the typically reported PPP is based on consumer goods and prices. That is, the PPP is skewed low in the case of Russia
since its food and consumer prices are very similar to that of the west. But large parts of its industrial economy have
a PPP ratio much higher due to much lower prices. No, those prices do not reflect the quality and utility of the products
but rather the long term price adjustment in the Russian economy.

@miketheterrible

I agree that the manipulation of the statistics serves to put the flame under the posteriors of corrupt slackers. But I also think
that its primary use was post 1999 to hide Russia's true "existential threat to the west". It made NATO leaders complacent and
deluded that Russia was nothing more than a one-commodity (oil) banana republic on its way out history's door. Recall all the
forecasts of the demographic collapse.

Corruption, like fish rot, starts from the head. This is an observation that is timeless and universal. Russia was swirling the toilet
bowl during the 1990s under Yeltsin's ultra corrupt regime. After Putin took over it began to get its act together on an epic scale.
People are totally clueless about what Russia has achieved. After the super-depression of the 1990s to transition to an economy
that is actually larger than the USSR per capita in under 20 years is spectacular. Especially since the whole economic and political
system was replaced. If this was normal, then there would be no 3rd world countries.

Corruption is a perpetually initiating process that needs active suppression. In the precious west, it has basically taken over and
legalized itself and the only reason that the west is not poor (or as poor as the 3rd world, since there are plenty of poor people) is
that it siphons wealth from the rest of the world (mostly poor 3rd world). The fact that California cancelled its high speed rail
project, demonstrates how rotten the west really is. Even though the media white washes this as if is somehow normal, it is
actually a national embarrassment. Any such project has a very detailed, realistic and professional project plan. There is no
way that costs could have been so badly underestimated that the project had to be abandoned. A failed mega project indicates
that too many parasites jumped on the host. The way that these parasites operate in the west is through endless layers of
subcontracting. Every layer takes its profit cut and also creates endless scheduling chaos (delay) through failure to conform
to timelines. In Russia, this racket is not established. Large Russian construction companies do not subcontract every bit
of work. They actually do it. And what is more there is actual oversight of these projects in Russia. In the west, endless
propaganda about "socialism" means that no serious oversight of holy private business occurs. As we saw, in the case of the
Vostochny Cosmodrome construction, the rot will always try to manifest itself. So it needs to be smacked down. Thanks to
Putin being the opposite of a corrupt tyrant, Russia is doing well. (Putin is not perfect and I have qualms with various policies,
but that is another discussion).

The russian GDP numbers are a maskirovka. Sometimes it is better to look weaker then you really are.

Take a look at the article from Hellevig about the modernisation/expansion of the airports. This are astonishing projects. Compare it with the german experience with the Berlin-Brandenburg Airport which is now six years behind scedule and costs at least triple the amount of Money. And then some western politicians and presstitutes claim Russia is infested with corruption, nothing works and they can´t build anything. And of course the russian economy is of the size of Spain.

Also interesting for comparison of the military expenditures are the australian project of buying 12 subs for 35 Bill. $!!!

Hole wrote:The russian GDP numbers are a maskirovka. Sometimes it is better to look weaker then you really are.

Take a look at the article from Hellevig about the modernisation/expansion of the airports. This are astonishing projects. Compare it with the german experience with the Berlin-Brandenburg Airport which is now six years behind scedule and costs at least triple the amount of Money. And then some western politicians and presstitutes claim Russia is infested with corruption, nothing works and they can´t build anything. And of course the russian economy is of the size of Spain.

Also interesting for comparison of the military expenditures are the australian project of buying 12 subs for 35 Bill. $!!!

Agreed.

Not to nitpick but according to this:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/26/france-to-build-australias-new-submarine-fleet-as-50bn-contract-awarded

the contract is for $50 billion in what looks to be US dollars and not Australian dollars. Supposedly the price is $20 billion to build
the subs and $30 billion to maintain them. The distinction is pedantic. The six project 636.3 subs Russia built for Vietnam include
support as well. Maybe not as extensive as the French contract for Australia, but I doubt it. I think the "support" price is a way
to lowball the per unit price to make it seem more palatable.

https://www.afr.com/news/politics/100-billion-babies-defence-reveals-true-cost-of-new-submarines-for-taxpayers-20180529-h10ohc

According to the above the actual cost will be closer to $100 billion (for 12 subs), which I suspect is closer to the truth. But here
the discussion is probably using Australian dollars. So the total price tag appear to be 100/1.4 = 71 billion US dollars. The magic
factor of 6 total price per unit is evident.