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    Russian Economy General News: #10

    GunshipDemocracy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:50 am

    miketheterrible wrote:I will contest this
    Give me examples. Cause official numbers in west (Canada) may look Rosey but it isn't.  Best way is to compare debt and money saved between each other.

    Im gld you did contest, otherwise forum is boring:). I dont claim that anywhere is rosy, especially for youngsters.  Yet still in Russia ratio for GDP/interest rate looks rather worse then in the west. In my IMHO That's why Uncle Vova is proposing all mother capitals on other supports for youngsters.

    Russian family pays 3x more total interest on mortgage loan than Canadian and 5x more than a German one.

    Of course I can be wrong too. What other criteria would you suggest?


    Rationale behind my opinion please find below:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

    .................................GDP PPP per capita....................CB.interest.rate
    Germany.....................$.50,206............................................0.%
    Canada.......................$.48,141............................................1,8.%
    Russia........................$.27,890.............................................7,75%

    lets assume  mortgage loan rate CB + 3 % , proprty is $(PPP)100,000
    https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/loan-calculator.aspx



    Germany

    3%

    Monthly Payments........$ 474.21
    Total Principal Paid.......$100,000
    Total Interest Paid....$42,263.39


    Canada

    5%
    Monthly Payments.......$ 584.59
    Total Principal Paid......$100,000
    Total Interest Paid...$75,377.01

    Russia

    11%

    Monthly Payments........$ 980.11
    Total Principal Paid.......$100,000
    Total Interest Paid.......$194,033.92
    GunshipDemocracy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:58 am

    Austin wrote:Financial intelligence estimates at $ 20 trillion the shadow economy in Russia

    Подробнее на РБК:
    https://www.rbc.ru/economics/22/02/2019/5c6c16d99a79477be70257ee

    The volume of the shadow economy in Russia last year exceeded 20 trillion rubles. and amounted to about 20% of the country's GDP, follows from a preliminary assessment of Rosfinmonitoring, which RBC has learned

    Im glad I was right.  The good news is that this also means Russian economy can jump 20% till 2024. Mind also regular growth then
     GDP could really grow ~6,000Tn by 2024 russia russia russia






    Hole wrote:The difference between Russia and the west is that in the west no politician cares.
    That's the difference between democratic government and authorization regime . lol1 lol1 lol1


    Democracy doesn't care - if you die immigrants replace you. Russia (at least establishment supporting Putin) - prefers to support own nation.
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:55 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:I will contest this
    Give me examples. Cause official numbers in west (Canada) may look Rosey but it isn't.  Best way is to compare debt and money saved between each other.

    Im gld you did contest, otherwise forum is boring:). I dont claim that anywhere is rosy, especially for youngsters.  Yet still in Russia ratio for GDP/interest rate looks rather worse then in the west. In my IMHO That's why Uncle Vova is proposing all mother capitals on other supports for youngsters.  

    Russian family pays 3x more total interest on mortgage  loan  than Canadian and 5x more than a German  one.

    Of course I can be wrong too. What other criteria would you suggest?


    Rationale behind my opinion please find below:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

    .................................GDP PPP per capita....................CB.interest.rate
    Germany.....................$.50,206............................................0.%
    Canada.......................$.48,141............................................1,8.%
    Russia........................$.27,890.............................................7,75%

    lets assume  mortgage loan rate CB + 3 % , proprty is $(PPP)100,000
    https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/loan-calculator.aspx



    Germany





    3%

    Monthly Payments........$ 474.21
    Total Principal Paid.......$100,000
    Total Interest Paid....$42,263.39


    Canada





    5%
    Monthly Payments.......$ 584.59
    Total Principal Paid......$100,000
    Total Interest Paid...$75,377.01

    Russia





    11%

    Monthly Payments........$ 980.11
    Total Principal Paid.......$100,000
    Total Interest Paid.......$194,033.92

    Ah, I see you are referring to interest here.  OK, then things are indeed tad different.  Right now interest here for mortgages are fluctuating.  But where are your monthly payments coming from?  Mortgage monthly payments are average of about $1,300 per month, not 584.59 per month.  I pay $1,500 per month for our house.  That is just the house.  Not to mention utilities which are significantly more expensive than in Russia as example.  City I live in is also not the most expensive in Canada either.  Even Winnipeg average house is $350,000.  Average 1 bedroom apartment is $180,000CAD.  Mortgages start at 25 years average from 3 - 5 years before have to renegotiate interests.

    As for PPP our currency dropped by over 25% so those numbers are rather old.  PPP takes into consideration of domestic economy and consumption thus prices can drop or increase.  Ours increased.  Why?  For some reason they assumed that materials should be within USD and not CAD even if they are local.  Hence why homes that were at least $300,000 are now over $500,000.  Even my home jumped initially from $350,000 to over $450,000. That of course has more to do with the speculators on behest of the realstate agents.
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:04 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    Austin wrote:Financial intelligence estimates at $ 20 trillion the shadow economy in Russia

    Подробнее на РБК:
    https://www.rbc.ru/economics/22/02/2019/5c6c16d99a79477be70257ee

    The volume of the shadow economy in Russia last year exceeded 20 trillion rubles. and amounted to about 20% of the country's GDP, follows from a preliminary assessment of Rosfinmonitoring, which RBC has learned

    Im glad I was right.  The good news is that this also means Russian economy can jump 20% till 2024. Mind also regular growth then
     GDP could really grow ~6,000Tn by 2024 russia russia russia






    Hole wrote:The difference between Russia and the west is that in the west no politician cares.
    That's the difference between democratic government and authorization regime . lol1 lol1 lol1


    Democracy doesn't care - if you die immigrants replace you. Russia (at least establishment supporting Putin)  -  prefers to support own nation.

    Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success. How do you bring it into overall economy. In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:21 am

    miketheterrible wrote: Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

    True but " in my IMHO" we need to look at it from historical-geopolitical perspective. There was no political will to curb on this, militarily security was the most important part. Now military security is ensured for years to come. The main challenge is to develop economy. AFAIK most of gry zone is SME.

    Now with net technologies (to control financial flows/ payments by cards / transfers only etc) + business climate improvements (less formalities, checks . financial support ) for SME Im sure grey zone will mostly move to white.

    Meh not all, once there wont be much incentive to stay in shadow why not to go legal not enjoy benefits?
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:32 am

    miketheterrible wrote:  Ah, I see you are referring to interest here.  OK, then things are indeed tad different.  Right now interest here for mortgages are fluctuating.  But where are your monthly payments coming from?   Mortgage monthly payments are average of about $1,300 per month, not 584.59 per month.  I pay $1,500 per month for our house.  That is just the house.  Not to mention utilities which are significantly more expensive than in Russia as example.  City I live in is also not the most expensive in Canada either.  Even Winnipeg average house is $350,000.  Average 1 bedroom apartment is $180,000CAD.  Mortgages start at 25 years average from 3 - 5 years before have to renegotiate interests.

    As for PPP our currency dropped by over 25% so those numbers are rather old.  PPP takes into consideration of domestic economy and consumption thus prices can drop or increase.  Ours increased.  Why?  For some reason they assumed that materials should be within USD and not CAD even if they are local.  Hence why homes that were at least $300,000 are now over $500,000.  Even my home jumped initially from $350,000 to over $450,000.  That of course has more to do with the speculators on behest of the realstate agents.

    I agree with  you nut please note:
    1) I did only provided simplest example and used 100,000  PPP-dollars  just to point payment/GDP differences

    2) PPP-per-capita, is of course a snapshot, from past but rates unlikely will go revolutions in next 4-6 years (so where we IMHO are referring to) .

    Thus   not only Russian family has ot spend more by 2-3 times for the same  property but also earns ~0,55 of what the  western one is.


    Im not saying that it wont change just that Putin's support measures do make sense. Especially now.
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Feb 23, 2019 4:34 am

    Will only really change imo once interest rates drop tbh. And more capital control in housing market. The private market on all sides (ours and Russia's) is getting ridiculous in increasing prices in housing which is uncalled for and has little means behind it other than overall greed.

    Well SME's are increasing and government did state that government institutions are giving more contracts to SME's so that should help reduce grey economy.
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    Post  Austin Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:18 pm

    Russia’s 5G Conundrum

    https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


    So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:43 pm

    Austin wrote:Russia’s 5G Conundrum

    https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


    So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

    So US agent from liberal HSE is concerned with Huawei but not CISCO / Checkpoint spywres? how sweet
    Jeff Schubert, a Visiting Professor at the Higher School of Economics National Research University in Moscow,


    seriously radio parts will be passing info massively to China? or let radio parts to be infiltrated by China?




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    Post  Nibiru Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:07 pm


    I thought its already made clear that Rostec has the capacity to manufacture local equipments for 5g tech in Russia? If not then Russia has to play dirty and steal both Huawei and Cisco tech. They should have done that years ago to keep up with competitors in this industry.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:27 pm

    Nibiru wrote:
    I thought its already made clear that Rostec has the capacity to manufacture local equipments for 5g tech in Russia? If not then Russia has to play dirty and steal both Huawei and Cisco tech. They should have done that years ago to keep up with competitors in this industry.

    Why play dirty? Just buy Huawei.
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    Post  Kimppis Sat Feb 23, 2019 4:58 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

    20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

    How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. Rolling Eyes (Just wondering...)
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    Post  kvs Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:28 pm

    Austin wrote:Russia’s 5G Conundrum

    https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


    So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

    Huawei's tech is the best out there and the accusation that Huawei stole this tech from Cisco and other precious western companies
    is pure BS. I am sure that China ripped off some tech IP in the past. But the reason Huawei is dominating the market is not because
    of "dumping" but because of superior features. That is why Washington is spazzing out. It can't compete and NATO are the ultimate
    sore losers.

    If find the "spying via hardware" claims to be childish. It is possible to strip down any hardware to its ICs and subject them to extensive
    tests to find "hidden features". When we talk about military monkey models that NATO sells, the customers know they are getting compromised
    tech but they have no choice (unless they buy from Russia). And 3rd world countries don't have the research budgets to deconstruct
    hardware even if they have the indigenous talent. America has not been able to demonstrate a single example of hardware spying in
    Huawei's hardware. For all its shrieking, sanctions and false-legal kidnappings it should put up or shut up. Instead, it is invoking some
    spying on Cisco from 15 years ago.

    I am quite sure that America steals Russian high tech on a regular basis. This includes the materials science technology that allowed
    cell phones to be downsized and commercialized. At the same time it spreads defamatory propaganda bout how inferior Russians are.

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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:52 pm

    Kimppis wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

    20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

    How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. Rolling Eyes (Just wondering...)

    How little you know: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwju7a6rqNLgAhVmCDQIHafoCTIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2014%2Fjun%2F10%2Faccounting-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules&psig=AOvVaw1yEc0YmYTC-08IQRF4QJQ7&ust=1551027098829571
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:58 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    Austin wrote:Russia’s 5G Conundrum

    https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


    So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

    So US agent from liberal HSE is concerned with Huawei but not CISCO / Checkpoint  spywres? how sweet
    Jeff Schubert, a Visiting Professor at the Higher School of Economics National Research University in Moscow,


    seriously radio parts will be passing info massively to  China? or let radio parts to be infiltrated by China?





    And the moron has zero idea of Russian production. This has been posted long ago but aimed at radar but was invested mostly for 5G technology

    https://rostec.ru/news/4521887/
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    Post  kvs Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:16 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    Austin wrote:Russia’s 5G Conundrum

    https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


    So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

    So US agent from liberal HSE is concerned with Huawei but not CISCO / Checkpoint  spywres? how sweet
    Jeff Schubert, a Visiting Professor at the Higher School of Economics National Research University in Moscow,


    seriously radio parts will be passing info massively to  China? or let radio parts to be infiltrated by China?





    And the moron has zero idea of Russian production. This has been posted long ago but aimed at radar but was invested mostly for 5G technology

    https://rostec.ru/news/4521887/


    Gallium-nitride transistors. Yep, Russia is so far behind everyone.

    At this stage every freaking journalist and pundit from any country has to be discounted a priori. They all
    spout defamatory BS about Russia. It must be in their genes. When some source is found to actually give objective
    coverage, then they can be white-listed.
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    Post  kvs Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:37 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

    20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

    How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. Rolling Eyes (Just wondering...)

    How little you know: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwju7a6rqNLgAhVmCDQIHafoCTIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2014%2Fjun%2F10%2Faccounting-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules&psig=AOvVaw1yEc0YmYTC-08IQRF4QJQ7&ust=1551027098829571

    So Russia's GDP is 20% bigger than the official one. But as I have posted about numerous times, I do not consider the official Russian GDP to be
    legitimate. There has been a systematic over-estimation of inflation in Russia's economy for the last 20 years. This results from the BS assumption
    that all prices in the economy transition to market levels in under one year. Jeffrey Sachs and he Harvard monetarist boys instilled this myth into
    the brains of Russian reformer saps back in the early 1990s (which gave us shock therapy and collapse of Russia's GDP by 50%).

    Perhaps food and consumer junk prices in Russia have adjusted on a short time scale. But it is clear that other prices, for example industrial
    production related to the military and even other non-consumer sector prices, have shown decadal time scale transitions. So prices in Russia
    have been subject to structural adjustment growth from non-market and non-existent levels back in 1990. This is not inflation regardless of
    what monetarist twats claim. Inflation is defined as price growth in an equilibrated economic system. Specifically capitalist economies where
    prices have meaning and are not decoupled from production and consumption as in command economies.

    If the above is too obscure, think of transitioning from barter to cash payments. Before no money existed and after there was money. If this
    is inflation, then it is infinite. In reality, new money was issued (printed) to monetize the transaction. The only way to evaluate actual
    impact on the GDP would be to see if physical goods and services turnover remained stagnant, shrank or increased. For such structural adjustment
    to be categorized as inflation would require the GDP to shrink to zero. Clearly this is nonsense.

    Since the CBR and the Ministry of Finance never once mention the above, and given the rather obvious detachment of official GDP growth from
    facts on the ground (how well people are doing, e.g. number jobs and pay), I am right in concluding that they are using the wrong CPI and PPI
    figures and hence systematically overestimate the GDP deflator. My estimate is that the Russian PPP GDP is about $6 trillion.

    Before laughing at such a small number, recall that the US GDP is basically offshore due to global dominance of US transnationals as well as
    the singular place of the US dollar as a reserve currency (petrodollar). GDP includes offshore economic activity unlike GNP, which
    is why use of GNP was dropped. It is not valid to divide the US GDP by the US population to get a GDP per capita to compare to the rest of
    the world. American citizens in all likelihood do not see 50% of their "national" GDP.
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    Post  Austin Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:27 pm

    Russia defence budget in terms of PPP

    https://romeosquared.eu/2018/06/04/russias-military-budget-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-gdp-of-spain/
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    Post  Austin Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:27 pm

    Russia defence budget in terms of PPP

    https://romeosquared.eu/2018/06/04/russias-military-budget-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-gdp-of-spain/
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:42 pm

    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

    20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

    How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. Rolling Eyes (Just wondering...)

    How little you know: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwju7a6rqNLgAhVmCDQIHafoCTIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2014%2Fjun%2F10%2Faccounting-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules&psig=AOvVaw1yEc0YmYTC-08IQRF4QJQ7&ust=1551027098829571

    So Russia's GDP is 20% bigger than the official one.   But as I have posted about numerous times, I do not consider the official Russian GDP to be
    legitimate.   There has been a systematic over-estimation of inflation in Russia's economy for the last 20 years.   This results from the BS assumption
    that all prices in the economy transition to market levels in under one year.    Jeffrey Sachs and he Harvard monetarist boys instilled this myth into
    the brains of Russian reformer saps back in the early 1990s (which gave us shock therapy and collapse of Russia's GDP by 50%).  

    Perhaps food and consumer junk prices in Russia have adjusted on a short time scale.   But it is clear that other prices, for example industrial
    production related to the military and even other non-consumer sector prices, have shown decadal time scale transitions.    So prices in Russia
    have been subject to structural adjustment growth from non-market and non-existent levels back in 1990.   This is not inflation regardless of
    what monetarist twats claim.   Inflation is defined as price growth in an equilibrated economic system.   Specifically capitalist economies where
    prices have meaning and are not decoupled from production and consumption as in command economies.  

    If the above is too obscure, think of transitioning from barter to cash payments.  Before no money existed and after there was money.   If this
    is inflation, then it is infinite.   In reality, new money was issued (printed) to monetize the transaction.   The only way to evaluate actual
    impact on the GDP would be to see if physical goods and services turnover remained stagnant, shrank or increased.    For such structural adjustment
    to be categorized as inflation would require the GDP to shrink to zero.   Clearly this is nonsense.

    Since the CBR and the Ministry of Finance never once mention the above, and given the rather obvious detachment of official GDP growth from
    facts on the ground (how well people are doing, e.g. number jobs and pay), I am right in concluding that they are using the wrong CPI and PPI
    figures and hence systematically overestimate the GDP deflator.    My estimate is that the Russian PPP GDP is about $6 trillion.    

    Before laughing at such a small number, recall that the US GDP is basically offshore due to global dominance of US transnationals as well as
    the singular place of the US dollar as a reserve currency (petrodollar).   GDP includes offshore economic activity unlike GNP, which
    is why use of GNP was dropped.    It is not valid to divide the US GDP by the US population to get a GDP per capita to compare to the rest of
    the world.   American citizens in all likelihood do not see 50% of their "national" GDP.  

    I always had the theory that the Russian government under Putin does this intentionally.  Many of them do.  It is that concept of under estimation or undermining the numbers.  I think it is to really throw people off intentionally.  Why?  I think it is to really put a fire under everyones ass in Russia.  Its to always keep them on their toes and make sure they do their job rather than be complacent.  It is working IMO as we are reading of development in Russia that is rather very astounding (The Sochi olympics development, the Crimean Bridge, the expansions of the railways (we have not seen such railway development I believe since the times of Chinese slave labor in the west)) and just overall development in all sectors even energy (Russia still imports petrol yet they are building a lot of petrol refineries and plastic plants).  Governors whom are lazy or corrupt are getting arrested now, businesses not following through with orders (Amur shipbuilding plant as example) are being taken to court and forced to give money back and pay additional fees for lying and poor development, etc.

    Austin wrote:Russia defence budget in terms of PPP

    https://romeosquared.eu/2018/06/04/russias-military-budget-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-gdp-of-spain/

    Good article but I think majority of people who know basics of economics would know that GDP Nominal is not really a good calculation anymore and PPP is replacing it.  Simply because PPP takes into account of costs of goods within the country and well, only indicator that is alternative to PPP that is good at calculating this is the Big Mac index.....oddly enough.

    But it gives good indication as to Russia's defense spending in corresponding PPP.

    From the link Austin posted:

    Russian Economy General News: #10 - Page 10 Owj5GbP

    Reason why I say no one cares for GDP Nominal anymore is because of this:

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/117173/

    vs Canada:

    https://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/refinery-cost-soars-to-9-3-billion-prompting-call-for-auditor-general-review
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:57 pm

    Austin wrote:Russia defence budget in terms of PPP

    https://romeosquared.eu/2018/06/04/russias-military-budget-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-gdp-of-spain/

    No, Russia's GDP is not the size of Spain. This clown is an ignoramus who does not understand PPP even though he
    refers to it. His whole theory is that Russia spends 4.3% of its GDP on defense while Spain spends 1.2%. If
    France, UK and Germany increased their spending on military to 4.3% then it would be much more than Russia. BS.

    Actually, the real GDP of the USSR was not several times less than comparable western countries. They always
    compare apples to oranges, these clowns. The nominal GDP of the US is not its actual economic productivity
    (i.e. GNP) per capita multiplied by its population number. US GNP is much smaller than its extra-territorial bloated
    GDP. By contrast, the USSR was subsidizing the eastern European clowns in the Warsaw Pact and all the 3rd world
    regimes that supposedly wanted socialism. This is the total opposite of the role of the USA in the world economy,
    which is like a giant parasite that gains profit from the 3rd world and even its minions and does not subsidize
    them (regardless of all the yapping about how the US shoulders the burden of NATO defense costs).

    The standard of living in the USSR was not bad at all. Cheap food and housing and a reasonable access to consumer
    goods. If you average the standard of living of Americans during the 1980s, it does not become several times higher
    than Soviet citizens. America has a huge poor stratum and a tiny super-rich top layer. And its GDP per capita does
    is a meaningless number since the GNP per capita (and thus real jobs and wages) is much smaller. The USSR citizens
    could have had a much higher standard of living if the USSR did not spend so much of its resources supporting losers
    abroad. One has to correct for such factors if one cares about factual comparisons and not propaganda masturbation.

    There is no way Spain would equal the military capacity of Russia if it increased its defense spending to 4.3$ of GDP.
    In addition, the title of your link is grossly misleading. The blogger does not even mention that Russian military prices
    are much smaller than any western price. A project 636.3 submarine costs six times less than any comparable western
    diesel-electric. And don't invoke AIP and other gimmicks as accounting for such a huge price differential. The marginal
    utility of AIP is some percentage much less than 100% and does not make the submarine 6 times more potent. In fact,
    in terms of actual military utility of the 636.3 it outclasses the German and Japanese submarines that cost 6 times more.
    So this f*ckwad blogger fails to notice or deliberately omits that PPP varies across different economic sectors. But
    the typically reported PPP is based on consumer goods and prices. That is, the PPP is skewed low in the case of Russia
    since its food and consumer prices are very similar to that of the west. But large parts of its industrial economy have
    a PPP ratio much higher due to much lower prices. No, those prices do not reflect the quality and utility of the products
    but rather the long term price adjustment in the Russian economy.

    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:14 pm

    @miketheterrible

    I agree that the manipulation of the statistics serves to put the flame under the posteriors of corrupt slackers. But I also think
    that its primary use was post 1999 to hide Russia's true "existential threat to the west". It made NATO leaders complacent and
    deluded that Russia was nothing more than a one-commodity (oil) banana republic on its way out history's door. Recall all the
    forecasts of the demographic collapse.

    Corruption, like fish rot, starts from the head. This is an observation that is timeless and universal. Russia was swirling the toilet
    bowl during the 1990s under Yeltsin's ultra corrupt regime. After Putin took over it began to get its act together on an epic scale.
    People are totally clueless about what Russia has achieved. After the super-depression of the 1990s to transition to an economy
    that is actually larger than the USSR per capita in under 20 years is spectacular. Especially since the whole economic and political
    system was replaced. If this was normal, then there would be no 3rd world countries.

    Corruption is a perpetually initiating process that needs active suppression. In the precious west, it has basically taken over and
    legalized itself and the only reason that the west is not poor (or as poor as the 3rd world, since there are plenty of poor people) is
    that it siphons wealth from the rest of the world (mostly poor 3rd world). The fact that California cancelled its high speed rail
    project, demonstrates how rotten the west really is. Even though the media white washes this as if is somehow normal, it is
    actually a national embarrassment. Any such project has a very detailed, realistic and professional project plan. There is no
    way that costs could have been so badly underestimated that the project had to be abandoned. A failed mega project indicates
    that too many parasites jumped on the host. The way that these parasites operate in the west is through endless layers of
    subcontracting. Every layer takes its profit cut and also creates endless scheduling chaos (delay) through failure to conform
    to timelines. In Russia, this racket is not established. Large Russian construction companies do not subcontract every bit
    of work. They actually do it. And what is more there is actual oversight of these projects in Russia. In the west, endless
    propaganda about "socialism" means that no serious oversight of holy private business occurs. As we saw, in the case of the
    Vostochny Cosmodrome construction, the rot will always try to manifest itself. So it needs to be smacked down. Thanks to
    Putin being the opposite of a corrupt tyrant, Russia is doing well. (Putin is not perfect and I have qualms with various policies,
    but that is another discussion).

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    Post  Hole Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:27 pm

    The russian GDP numbers are a maskirovka. Sometimes it is better to look weaker then you really are.

    Take a look at the article from Hellevig about the modernisation/expansion of the airports. This are astonishing projects. Compare it with the german experience with the Berlin-Brandenburg Airport which is now six years behind scedule and costs at least triple the amount of Money. And then some western politicians and presstitutes claim Russia is infested with corruption, nothing works and they can´t build anything. And of course the russian economy is of the size of Spain.

    Also interesting for comparison of the military expenditures are the australian project of buying 12 subs for 35 Bill. $!!!
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    Post  kvs Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:00 pm

    Hole wrote:The russian GDP numbers are a maskirovka. Sometimes it is better to look weaker then you really are.

    Take a look at the article from Hellevig about the modernisation/expansion of the airports. This are astonishing projects. Compare it with the german experience with the Berlin-Brandenburg Airport which is now six years behind scedule and costs at least triple the amount of Money. And then some western politicians and presstitutes claim Russia is infested with corruption, nothing works and they can´t build anything. And of course the russian economy is of the size of Spain.

    Also interesting for comparison of the military expenditures are the australian project of buying 12 subs for 35 Bill. $!!!


    Agreed.

    Not to nitpick but according to this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/26/france-to-build-australias-new-submarine-fleet-as-50bn-contract-awarded

    the contract is for $50 billion in what looks to be US dollars and not Australian dollars. Supposedly the price is $20 billion to build
    the subs and $30 billion to maintain them. The distinction is pedantic. The six project 636.3 subs Russia built for Vietnam include
    support as well. Maybe not as extensive as the French contract for Australia, but I doubt it. I think the "support" price is a way
    to lowball the per unit price to make it seem more palatable.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/100-billion-babies-defence-reveals-true-cost-of-new-submarines-for-taxpayers-20180529-h10ohc

    According to the above the actual cost will be closer to $100 billion (for 12 subs), which I suspect is closer to the truth. But here
    the discussion is probably using Australian dollars. So the total price tag appear to be 100/1.4 = 71 billion US dollars. The magic
    factor of 6 total price per unit is evident.

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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:06 am

    kvs wrote:Actually, the real GDP of the USSR was not several times less than comparable western countries.   They always
    compare apples to oranges, these clowns.   The nominal GDP of the US is not its actual economic productivity
    (i.e. GNP) per capita multiplied by its population number.    US GNP is much smaller than its extra-territorial bloated
    GDP.   By contrast, the USSR was subsidizing the eastern European clowns in the Warsaw Pact and all the 3rd world
    regimes that supposedly wanted socialism.    This is the total opposite of the role of the USA in the world economy,
    which is like a giant parasite that gains profit from the 3rd world and even its minions and does not subsidize
    them (regardless of all the yapping about how the US shoulders the burden of NATO defense costs).  

    The standard of living in the USSR was not bad at all.   Cheap food and housing and a reasonable access to consumer
    goods.   If you average the standard of living of Americans during the 1980s, it does not become several times higher
    than Soviet citizens.   America has a huge poor stratum and a tiny super-rich top layer.   And its GDP per capita does
    is a meaningless number since the GNP per capita (and thus real jobs and wages) is much smaller.    The USSR citizens
    could have had a much higher standard of living if the USSR did not spend so much of its resources supporting losers
    abroad.   One has to correct for such factors if one cares about factual comparisons and not propaganda masturbation.


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