Russian Economy General News: #10

I dont fetish export. It is just the way to accumulate capital + definitely  companies can  use economy of scale with their products. .  This model w proven in practice by Germany, Japan, Korea, China .

I never said that, but many people do. I generally agree with your comment.

Btw, comparing Russia's exports to its nominal GDP shows how hilariously misleading the latter is currently. So the ruble is still hugely devalued compared to 2013 (obviously), but despite that Russia's exports in dollars are rapidly recovering. This means that in nominal GDP Russia's dependency on exports (i.e. exports' share of GDP) is also growing at a similar rate, probably to a level that is comparable to several small Western countries, which is... well, total nonsense.

That is pretty much as dumb as Russia's USD military spending, which is no mean achievement. As we all know, RF's defence budget clearly started massively declining in 2014 and in 2019 the figure of $40 billion can directly be compared to NATO's spending in dollars. In some alternative universe, maybe...

Kimppis wrote:

Btw, comparing Russia's exports to its nominal GDP shows how hilariously misleading the latter is currently. So the ruble is still hugely devalued compared to 2013 (obviously), but despite that Russia's exports in dollars are rapidly recovering. This means that in nominal GDP Russia's dependency on exports (i.e. exports' share of GDP) is also growing at a similar rate, probably to a level that is comparable to several small Western countries, which is... well, total nonsense. a

devil is in details to my guess, structure of economy differs in Russia from both Asian and western countries.  

Kimppis wrote: That is pretty much as dumb as Russia's USD military spending, which is no mean achievement. As we all know, RF's defence budget clearly started massively declining in 2014 and in 2019 the figure of $40 billion can directly be compared to NATO's spending in dollars. In some alternative universe, maybe...

when was precisely is this massive drop in spending? MoD is not buying anything for $. The real (PPP) $ for Russian defence sendign is disputed. Look like you need to multiple nominl $ by 1,8 <->l 2,5 factor

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3350920.html

GunshipDemocracy wrote:when was precisely is this massive drop in spending? MoD is not buying anything for $. The real  (PPP) $  for Russian defence sendign is disputed. Look like  you need to multiple nominl $  by 1,8 <->l 2,5 factor

Exactly. Both Russia's recent exports growth vs. nominal GDP AND Russia's military spending in $ show the huge limitations of that indicator.

It's absolutely undeniable that Russia spends more than $100 billion on defence. Where do you get the 1.8 from? If I understood you correctly, that is. That sounds way too low, the gap between Russia nominal and PPP is around 2.5x, atleast.

Kimppis wrote:

Exactly. Both Russia's recent exports growth vs. nominal GDP AND Russia's military spending in $ show the huge limitations of that indicator.

It's absolutely undeniable that Russia spends more than $100 billion on defence. Where do you get the 1.8 from? If I understood you correctly, that is. That sounds way too low, the gap between Russia nominal and PPP is around 2.5x, atleast.    

That's why I said "disputable"



1) One way is to check GDP PPP vs. nominal ->

GDP $1.579 trillion (nominal; 2017) : $4.007 trillion (PPP; 2017) -> ~2,5


2) The other one is to check prices of comparable military equipment. But here we need to check different military equipment groups.

Su-30SM ~ 2 Bln rubles (~ $30m)
F-15X ~ $90-100m

Factor 3-4. BTW not sure if this is the same category since MiG-21 can shoot F-16


Corvette 20386 - ~$300m
Gowind 2500 ~ $450m


factor 1,5


Im not claiming that this is perfect but always that would be good to see other methods, better reflecting real ratio.

Investments in fixed assets in Russia in 2018 increased by 4.3%

In absolute terms, investment reached 17.6 trillion rubles.
MOSCOW, March 4th. / TASS /. Following the results of 2018, investments in fixed assets in Russia increased by 4.3% compared with the figure for 2017, according to Rosstat materials. In absolute terms, the volume of investments over the past year reached 17 trillion 595 billion rubles.

For comparison, by the end of 2017, investments in fixed assets in the Russian Federation grew by 4.4% compared with 2016 and amounted to 15.97 trillion rubles.

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6183588

kvs wrote:   The military industrial complex is basically not measure and perhaps some token estimate is made.    The Russian MIC PPP factor is closer to 6 than to 2.   In fact, to this day activity in this sector is not even fully monetized.

Using a factor of 1.8 also incurs and error from the US side.   The US MIC is grossly inflated in terms of prices.   It is pure pork barrel slop compared to the almost ascetic Russian economics in its MIC.    For an apples to apples comparison Russiand and US MIC prices have to be compared directrly without any consideration for the rest of the economy.   Using the civilian sector factor (1. produces a quadratic exaggeration of the size of the US
MIC.  

True there are many factors, but it would be also great to see other method then mine. BTW Russian MIC needs also generate profits simply to be able to reinvest in R&D + pay decent salaries to engineers.

Russia promised a tough response to the threat to investment in Venezuela

https://ria.ru/20190304/1551546780.html

miketheterrible wrote:Negative. The internal market isn't $2. Whatever billion. It's much larger.

if you got better sources you're welcome.

https://www.osp.ru/cw/2018/01/13053729/

Gulnara Khasyanova, Director General of PJSC "Micron", discussed with Computerworld Russia the state and prospects of development of the commercial sector of the Russian microelectronics industry, as well as the contribution of "Micron" to its restoration

" According to experts, the volume of the Russian market of microelectronics exceeds 130 billion rubles, but it accounts for no more than 40 billion for domestic manufacturers."

₽130B  -> ~$2B

40% means $800m is for Russian manufacturers. All of them

MTT wrote:Issue is the release of the systems. Elbrus itself is designed to be used for regular office and household use. But how many households have Elbrus microprocessors? How available are they?

If let's say Russia banned the use of Intel and AMD processors in Russia tomorrow, you would see MCST sell $Billions worth.

dont see it coming. Those chips are in appliances which are not manufactured by Russian companies.  

MTT wrote:
Let's do some math.If let's say (I'm throwing spit right now) each Elbrus processor costs around $150 per chip, and roughly 40,000,000 Russians use a PC, then that is $6B in sales alone.

of course first you need to convince Russians to use Russian made  and buy them every year.

magnumcromagnon wrote:
You bring up Toyota car and the 4 million consumption in the Japanese market, but you didn't mention how the Japanese govt. heavily subsidizes Toyota by punishing the consumer...the Japanese govt. literally forces the Japanese consumer to buy and sell their cars after few years, and older used cars are heavily taxed by arbitrary technical inspections. Many 'used' cars in Japans are 3-5 years old at most, and rarely above that (because of heavy taxation).

did you see any govt not forcing people to sell cars? Welcome to EU. Euro norms, eco taxes, CO2 tx. Hybrid crap taz deductions...

I think you are not grasping at what is being said.

Current form of domestic needs don't exceed that amount because what Mikran makes is very specialized and can only be caught after certain groups. Not to mention their entire line of production is RFID chips and low rate production of chips of arm like design.

Now look at how much the commercial sector imports, that will tell you how much it's market is worth.  Otherwise, why do they import electronics then in the tens of billions $ worth if their internal market only consumes $2B?

But Elbrus is made in Russia or at least designed in Russia. Appliances? I don't think you know what you are talking about regarding the use of Elbrus IPC.

And you don't need convincing if you can't purchase the alternative. Or are forced to upgrade every 5 years like other Asian markets do.

If you want to take a look at domestic market demands, don't look at Mikran who makes super specialized chips, look at GS nanogroup who makes civilian chips for the TV box top market.

Russia imported $20.6B worth of electronics last year. So combine that with how much they produced for internal needs (your $2B) and that is how big the domestic market demand is for electronics. Be it military to civilian

miketheterrible wrote:I think you are not grasping at what is being said.

Current form of domestic needs don't exceed that amount because what Mikran makes is very specialized and can only be caught after certain groups. Not to mention their entire line of production is RFID chips and low rate production of chips of arm like design.

AFAIK she was referring to Granter report. Market size is to my understanding how many chips you sell on market not appliances.



[quote=MTT]
But Elbrus is made in Russia or at least designed in Russia. Appliances? I don't think you know what you are talking about regarding the use of Elbrus IPC.
[/quote]

And how many is sold in Russia nd in how many appliances is used?

MTT wrote: And you don't need convincing if you can't purchase the alternative. Or are forced to upgrade every 5 years like other Asian markets do.

then magically you need to h ave developed smartphones industry compute industry, TV sets, fridges, microwave owens, robot
IMHO better is subsidize development of competitive goodies, t ax incentives + moving govt/ state corpos to Russian products.
+ of course new niches like IoT, robotics,AI chips

What is more less being implemented.

And that is what I'm trying to say that you are not getting. I'm saying domestic can indeed fill those positions - Elbrus is designed for personal use. In office needs, it's perfect. In HPC needs, it's perfect. In gaming? Not so much. So it can at least grab 2 of those 3 categories. It doesn't due to cost, low rate production and lack of investors minus Kraftway and Ineum. They sell them and now even export. But domestic is still filled with Intel and AMD because of their market grab and dominance and little on Russia's side to support local. Only now they are demanding all government institutions (civil service and all) to use Elbrus computers and Linux OS instead of others due to it being able to work as intended, supporting domestic market and security needs.

If they could get GS nanogroup and Mikran involved, it would be even better. And Mikran wants to be involved but there is a legal suite between Rostec and Sitronics.

For smartphones, they do make components for it. Baikal electronics MIPS CPU can be used. They we're working on ARM cpu but dunno what happened to that.

Volodin interrupted speech Oreshkin in the State Duma

https://ria.ru/20190306/1551584442.html

Thus, the speaker of the lower house of parliament was dissatisfied with the fact that Oreshkin could not give the exact amount that would be spent on the implementation of state programs and national projects, as well as the deadlines for fulfilling the instructions of the president voiced in the message to the Federal Assembly.

He invited the minister to speak at another time, prepare for questions and talk about the priorities of economic development, and not be limited to the topic of small and medium business.

“Perhaps it would be better for us to postpone the government hour, you can meet with the factions,
discuss these issues further, then come and offer us the development options: what does it take
to achieve growth that will provide three percent in 2021 (economic growth. - Approx . Ed.). <...>
We need to build a very specific conversation, based on the tasks of implementing national projects
monthly, "the State Duma chairman added.

     

miketheterrible wrote:And that is what I'm trying to say that you are not getting. I'm saying domestic can indeed fill those positions - Elbrus is designed for personal use. In office needs, it's perfect. In HPC needs, it's perfect. In gaming? Not so much.  So it can at least grab 2 of those 3 categories.  It doesn't due to cost, low rate production and lack of investors minus Kraftway and Ineum.  They sell them and now even export. But domestic is still filled with Intel and AMD because of their market grab and dominance and little on Russia's side to support local. Only now they are demanding all government institutions (civil service and all) to use Elbrus computers and Linux OS instead of others due to it being able to work as intended, supporting domestic market and security needs.

And how you'd do it? forcing to Elbrus to Samsung? Huawei? Sony TV ? Siemens? I dotn see it at all

You can force them by making amd and Intel too expensive to buy and offering a cheaper alternative. That's how the SK and Japs did it.

miketheterrible wrote:You can force them by making amd and Intel too expensive to buy and offering a cheaper alternative.  That's how the SK and Japs did it.

but then Japanese industry produced many household/tv applications or cars . My point is first you need to have consumer goodies to sell chips inside.

The market for Russian exports of services exceeded $ 65 billion in 2018

Exports of Russian services abroad grew in 2018 by more than 7 billion

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6133543

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:You can force them by making amd and Intel too expensive to buy and offering a cheaper alternative.  That's how the SK and Japs did it.

but then Japanese  industry produced many household/tv applications or cars . My point is first you need to have consumer goodies to sell chips inside.

The market for Russian exports of services exceeded $ 65 billion in 2018

Exports of Russian services abroad grew in 2018 by more than 7 billion

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6133543

They already do, must I repeat myself? Elbrus 4C, Elbrus-8C.  Both used in Kraftway computers and Ineum.



Although they need to shit can windows and just showcase it in linux. Future is open source anyway as Vulkan API and others interests in open source is rising.

Rand Paul Stated 6 Trillion USD spent on Afghanistan War

‘Time to declare victory!’ US senators seek to end ‘forever war’ in Afghanistan
[quote]
Senators Rand Paul and Tom Udall have introduced a bill to end the ruinously expensive conflict in Afghanistan, declaring ‘victory’ in the longest war in US history after 18 years, some $6 trillion and over 100,000 dead.


How come US is not impacted by Inflation after spending more than 25 % of its GDP on Afgan War Alone ?

Because every time the inflation rises they change the method to calculate it. If you want to see real Price rises in Trumps Wonderland you have to look at the health care or education costs.

This is Putin's Russia "Teaching by example" how to be independent..
The moron was making fun of france for paying the fines of US department of justice..
over fraudulent charges.. and now US department of injustice , are fining a major Russian telephone
company for near 1 billion dollars for supposed corruption they did in bribery to an official in
Uzbekistan..  

https://www.rt.com/business/453240-mts-russia-pay-us-uzbekistan/


and this is the second company fined for similar "corruption". So lets gets this right.
They are fining a very big Russian telephone company for a "corruption" that did not
happened in United States against any American company..  

and later Putin wants the wold to take him and Russia seriously..
how in hell can  you promote nations to be independent if the Moron in charge Putin
allow Russian companies to pay fines to US , for allegations of things that have nothing
to do with American companies or territory..

This is another reason why Putin is a traitor.. for allowing US to disrespect Russia in the world.
he should ban companies for paying any fine to US.. this is outrageous ,that Russian companies
allows themselves to be extorted and Russian government do nothing about it.    

So much "Independence and sovereignty " the idiot Putin promotes.. allowing Russian
companies to be robbed. For sure when they pay the fine.. they will come for another billionaire fine against the same company or another .. Whats good about ending the US of dollars ,if Putin allows the extortion on Russian business  

Russia will NEVER disband the American system and replace it  ,with that moron in power.
And continue embarrassing Russia in the world. Who needs the 5th column ,when you have
Putin as President.. the incompetence should be seen as treason ,in Russian laws.. and Putin
demanded to Resign for that.

So basically Americans travels for free in space , whenever a Russian company pay such fines.
to US..   What a brilliant system Putin have there.  most valuable player , for US .. no idea
why they want Putin out.. as long the Moron is in control of Russia , Russia will be very vulnerable
its economy ,their business and nations disrespected. and their nation security too at risk.

This is why i will never stop complaining about Putin destructive role in Russia development.
You can't expect any major success while being part of a very corrupt western system.. Any success
Putin achieve in agriculture record sales or tourism will be neutralized with the stroke of a pen by the US department of justice.. if they can damage Russian companies.. they go bankrupt and this
create unemployment.. and they can continue fining Russian business as much as they want..
and effectively the American Departmen of justice is the most profitable Business in US . just
a fine and a $billion dollar here or there.. Trump can even build the wall on mexico . the $20 billions he need ,just fining Russian companies.. If this is not treason , allowing your nation to be
damaged so easily its economy ,then no idea what is.. Breaking more Agriculture records , olympic records , of hockey medals or no amount of tourism in the world , will counter the American hostilities towards Russia.. Russia needs to fight back like China is doing ,damaging the sales of
US technology industry.. and the leadership too. Putin all he is doing ..is embarrassing Russian citizens with the weakness Putin's Russia shows to the world..

The share of gold in the international reserves of Russia rose to 19%
one

The total international reserves of Russia in February 2019 increased by 1.4% to $ 482.8 billion, follows from the data of the Central Bank. The share of gold in international reserves of Russia increased to 19%, in monetary terms - $ 91.64 billion. These values ​​are a record since January 1993.

Recall that in 2018, the central banks of the world acquired the maximum amount of gold since 1971 - 651.5 tons. The largest buyers of the precious metal were the central banks of Russia and Turkey, due to the growing tensions with the United States, reducing dependence on the dollar. By the end of the year, Bank Rossi acquired more than 274 tons of metal, bringing its volume to 2,133 tons (the fifth largest reserves in the world).

Hole wrote:Because every time the inflation rises they change the method to calculate it. If you want to see real Price rises in Trumps Wonderland you have to look at the health care or education costs.

What about Food Inflation ?

The fed seems to be trying hard to reach 2 % as its inflation target ......some what weird as thats hardly the way free market works which is not dictating what inflation and interest rate should be but let market decide

kvs wrote:V7 is back to poop on Russia.

Take your irrelevant drivel and shove it.    You make the victims sound like the victimizers.   And by not acting the way you want
it, Russia secures its interests.    Beating UN podiums with shoes is for retards.   And having Russian companies pay off US extortion
in the short run gives the US moron leaders the dose of complacency they need.    Russia can recoup the extorted money by other
means.   But neither you, nor your Uncle Scumbag need to know what they are.

This never happened

About two years ago a head of iceberg lettuce here was about $1. Now it's $4 average.

There is also something called "shrinkflation" = some product costs the same as before but there is less in the package. Plus the food industry in the west is always finding new ways of replacing good ingredients with some synthetic or genetically modified shit.

The fed may say it wants 2% inflation, but these guys are notorical liars. And the free market is lone gone, at least in the west. Had it really existed all the banks would be bankrupt since 2008.