Russian Economy General News: #10

Russia’s National Projects: Economic Reboot or Mucky Bog?

https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/russias-national-projects-economic-reboot-or-mucky-bog

Which G20 Countries’ Public Debt is More Expensive than that of Russia?

https://www.polygraph.info/a/russia-public-debt-lowest-g20-fact-check/29911115.html

I guess Been Aeris forgets that the lower GDP for first quarter is because of the tax increase.

People, don't comment on economics if you can't get basics correct.

Hell, he even goes as saying Putin is awarding all his rich buddies with contracts.

That article is nonsense. Stop posting garbage Austin.

Indeed, intellectually insulting drivel. Suppose Putin did give "all of the contracts to his cronies". How would that shrink the
GDP? Only if those "cronies" offshored the money. Anyone with a clue about Russia knows that the days of Ukrainian style oligarch
corruption are long over in Russia. Putin brought the offshoring parasites to heel back in 2003-2004. That is why NATO started
to hate him with a passion around the same time. These parasites were transferring billions of dollars to the west and western associated
safe havens.

There is a clear pattern of revisionism in these articles. They talk about corruption in Russia as if it showed up under Putin and the
era of Yeltsin was simply some "golden age". Navalny spews this lie as well. It is pure NATO propaganda.

BTW, the bad corruption is the type you never hear about. Exposed corruption means suppressed corruption.

It was usual troops. To break it down was:
- National projects won't be fully implemented
- National Projects will make government more in control of economy than private
- National Projects won't bring private confidence ratings up
- Putin gives contracts to his buddies
- GDP growth very slow
- Good aspects are government has better control of tax income so more money in government without raising taxes.
- bad again is that oil is everything.
- FDI is so low! That's bad!

So let's break it down:

- National projects won't be fully 100% implemented. In Russia's and Soviet Union history, no "5 year plan" ever came out fully implemented. But even if it's 60% implemented, that is 60% further ahead than before. So it will help, considering construction accounts for a lot in GDP growth.
- Yes, Government spending on projects will make them more dependent on Government meaning more government in economy. So what? Planned economy has proven to work. Plus it solidifies Russia's position internally.
- how does national projects hurt private investors ratings down? It would mean government is serious in it's development and new infrastructure means new opportunities for private investors for development.
- Putin gives contracts to his buddies? Based on what evidence? What evidence is there that a construction mugal is friends with Putin? Should we now say all rich people who own private firms in US who get government contracts "friends of (whoever is in leadership)"?
- GDP slow growth. Yes, because Russia has 30% worth of GDP in grey economy that they don't account for because they are still trying to reel that in. Can't count something you don't have yet. Plus they don't account for prostitution, drugs and other illegal shit in their numbers like west does. Or they don't build ghost cities like China does to stimulate economy. Plus VAT tax increase is slowing down growth for this year. Was mentioned already.
- better tax control meant that Russia could use budget surplus rather than increasing taxes as method to obtain necessary funds without crazy borrowing or depleting reserves. This helps Russia weather any issue plus in future after major growth, will mean even more disposable income. But there is still a ton of work because grey economy is still huge in Russia.
- Oil doesn't account for much. Yes, major exporter, but isn't key to economy either. Non oil based goods outdone oil based for export and income generated. This will continue to grow as more self reliance is created.
- FDI being low is I think a rather saving grace. FDI can be accounted for even debt growth which is bad. Plus, no one in their right mind should rely on FDI for development. Why should you let others hold your economy hostage? Because they can print paper with some assholes face on it, and give it to you? No. They shouldn't have access to your resources. If they want to invest, then they need to do it properly. But let's be honest, FDI is first used by west as method to stifle future growth in the country by creating monopolies.

One thing I think wasn't mentioned is private investment. I believe it is said that about 7T rubles from the 12T is coming from private investors in Russia looking to expand in national infrastructure program.

The anti-Russian propaganda is cheesy. In all major economies the job of infrastructure development is in the hands of the government.
Tax payer money is dished out to private companies to fill contracts, but that is not the same as private companies developing the
infrastructure of their own initiative. Clearly these BS articles are designed for sheeple without even a basic knowledge of modern
economics. Unfortunately there are a lot of such people in Russia who have zero understanding of western reality. But even people
in the west are out of touch and fall such spin.

The sniping at Russian big budget projects is absurd. America can't even build a high speed rail line in California and Germany can't even
finish the Berlin airport renewal but Russia, where such projects are finished on time and with the budget under control, is smeared as
some crony operation of tyrant Putler. F*U*C*K OFF AND D*I*E you blood libeler NATO slime "journalists".

kvs wrote:The anti-Russian propaganda is cheesy.   In all major economies the job of infrastructure development is in the hands of the government.
Tax payer money is dished out to private companies to fill contracts, but that is not the same as private companies developing the
infrastructure of their own initiative.    Clearly these BS articles are designed for sheeple without even a basic knowledge of modern
economics.   Unfortunately there are a lot of such people in Russia who have zero understanding of western reality.   But even people
in the west are out of touch and fall such spin.

The sniping at Russian big budget projects is absurd.   America can't even build a high speed rail line in California and Germany can't even
finish the Berlin airport renewal but Russia, where such projects are finished on time and with the budget under control, is smeared as
some crony operation of tyrant Putler.   F*U*C*K OFF AND D*I*E you blood libeler NATO slime "journalists".  

Honestly, even someone like me who tries to keep up, can't seem to get a proper grasp most of the time.

Ok let's be honest here, the Rail situation is because of that silly Hyperloop Project constantly getting pushed and Big Auto trying to Lobby such Rail projects out of existence.

AlfaT8 wrote:

kvs wrote:The anti-Russian propaganda is cheesy.   In all major economies the job of infrastructure development is in the hands of the government.
Tax payer money is dished out to private companies to fill contracts, but that is not the same as private companies developing the
infrastructure of their own initiative.    Clearly these BS articles are designed for sheeple without even a basic knowledge of modern
economics.   Unfortunately there are a lot of such people in Russia who have zero understanding of western reality.   But even people
in the west are out of touch and fall such spin.

The sniping at Russian big budget projects is absurd.   America can't even build a high speed rail line in California and Germany can't even
finish the Berlin airport renewal but Russia, where such projects are finished on time and with the budget under control, is smeared as
some crony operation of tyrant Putler.   F*U*C*K OFF AND D*I*E you blood libeler NATO slime "journalists".  

Honestly, even someone like me who tries to keep up, can't seem to get a proper grasp most of the time.

Ok let's be honest here, the Rail situation is because of that silly Hyperloop Project constantly getting pushed and Big Auto trying to Lobby such Rail projects  out of existence.

They spend hundreds of millions of taxpayer money for nothing and then put the project on hiatus. Several years later they will restart this extortion
racket again but for sure will not complete it. This is 3rd world level corruption. Musk's Hyperloop is a media sideshow and cannot be used as
a pretext to excuse the systematic waste of taxpayer money.

The Kerch bridge project puts the whole of the west to royal shame. No such project is possible in the "rich" west. And these hater turds
try to browbeat Russians over the money spent on infrastructure running up to the Sochi Olympics. The roads and railway tunnels are being
used and used well. Millions of tourists use the facilities (e.g. alpine ones) every year. But listening to the western lie factory bleaters one
would think that grass is overgrowing them since they were just corruption as part of the Olympics. In reality, the Olympics were just a good
time to get these long overdue projects launched and gave a good deadline for their completion. Corruption rackets in construction around
the world rely on endless project delays to milk the taxpayer.

Im not sure how this will work, because Nato is already hostile to Russia and will have no hard time making another excuse to ban products made in Russia.

Chinese businesses consider moving production to Russia as trade war with US escalates


Small and medium-sized enterprises in China, under pressure from Washington’s trade war, are studying the possibility of moving production to Russia.
That’s according to the secretary general of the China Overseas Development Association (CODA), He Zhenwei, who talked to RIA Novosti ahead of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).

Trade between China and the US mainly relies on small and medium-sized enterprises, while China’s bilateral trade with Russia accounts for large state-owned enterprises, He said.

However, many Chinese export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises are now facing difficulties. The US has already raised its duties on Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent, which is tantamount to closing its doors. In case American consumers agree to pay more out of their pockets, these companies will be able to raise prices on products by 25 percent, which is hardly probable,” he said.

In such harsh conditions, Chinese companies are now struggling to maintain their existence. “They should think about moving production to Russia,” He said, adding that “Chinese goods produced in Russia could be further sold in the United States and even in Europe.”

The ongoing tit-for-tat tariff exchange between China and the US has been getting worse recently. Washington raised duties from 10 percent to 25 percent on Chinese imports amounting to about $200 billion. US President Donald Trump has also ordered a start to the process of hiking duties on all remaining imports from China, which is estimated at about $300 billion. In response, Beijing raised levies on $60 billion worth of American imports on Saturday.

Meanwhile, trade between Russia and China saw historic growth last year of around 25 percent to US$108 billion, beating all forecasts. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, China is and will continue to be Russia’s number one foreign trade partner. He recently said that the two countries are enjoying their best trade and economic ties ever.

https://www.rt.com/business/461025-chinese-businesses-moving-russia/

On contrary, Russian export to EU and US is growing.

PhSt wrote:Im not sure how this will work, because Nato is already hostile to Russia and will have no hard time making another excuse to ban products made in Russia.

NATO? I guess without export to Poland, Romania or Baltics Russian/China can survive. The rest is more less silent allies. In EU there is still large scale exchange with Russia. Besides China exports not only to EU or US. World is a bit bigger then that

At the SPIEF-2019 concluded agreements for 3.1 trillion rubles

650 agreements worth 3.1 trillion rubles were concluded at SPIEF-2019 - Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation.

The largest delegations at the SPIEF-2019 were Chinese and American - Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation.


https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6528870

“We will replace American manufacturers”: Oreshkin on cooperation with China, credit regulation and Rosstat

https://russian.rt.com/business/article/639241-oreshkin-intervyu-pmef

Relations with Ukraine, trade wars, and the revision of the status of the dollar: what Putin was talking about at the plenary session of the SPIEF

https://russian.rt.com/world/article/639029-putin-plenarnoe-zasedanie-pmef

Jeffrey Gundlach Danielle Di Martino Booth DLNY event Rainbow Room 572019

DoubleLine holds a high level financial discussion on where the economy is heading with CEO of Quill Intelligence, Danielle DiMartino Booth and CEO of DoubleLine, Jeffrey Gundlach at the Rockefeller Center's Rainbow Room in New York.

Russia is finally giving the IMF the middle finger. The IMF wants the reserve fund capital to be invested in western banking and stock market
instruments. Russia wants to invest this money within Russia. Hallelujah!

Russia and China should leave IMF and world bank.

For those precious few here who think Russia needs high oil prices:

Russia Calls The Shots In A Fractured OPEC

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Russia-Calls-The-Shots-In-A-Fractured-OPEC.html

........
“This is natural,” Putin told media as quoted by Reuters. “Look at the price of a barrel, which Saudi Arabia uses to calculate its budget. This is significantly higher than for us.”

Indeed, Russia’s budget for this year is based on an average price of US$40 per barrel of crude as Moscow continues its cautious budgeting approach after the fallout of the 2014 price crisis. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, needs oil at US$80-85 per barrel to break even this year.

Again, there is nothing new here. Unlike with the first production cut agreement sealed in 2016, when prices were too low for anyone’s comfort, Russia was this time around reluctant from the start, not least because its oil companies were doing just fine in a lower price environment and wanted to continue to pump more rather than arrest their production growth.

This sentiment has not changed: earlier this week Rosneft’s head Igor Sechin said the company would seek compensation from Moscow if it decided that Russia will join an extension of the production cuts until the end of the year.

“Does it make sense (for Russia) to reduce (oil output) if the U.S immediately takes (our) market share?” Sechin said. “We have to defend our market share.”
........

How true is this ?

Why You Should Not Underestimate The Severity Of The Coming Recession

How can Russia maximise to its benefit if Recession occurs ?

A lot of good data there @Austin.

Austin wrote:
How true is this ?

Why You Should Not Underestimate The Severity Of The Coming Recession

How can Russia maximise to its benefit if Recession occurs ?

There is a lot of good information in there Austin.

I think Russia is going to do fine because it has little debt compared to the other countries, they don't hold too much US debt and the sanctions have helped because Russia has invested more into it's own economy. If Russia continues to build up her Gold Reserves, invest in her economy, continues to dump US debt and Treasuries and continues to build her reserves, she will be fine.

The same cannot be said for the "western" countries, that have bought in millions of refugees and migrants and put them on welfare, they have not payed down their debts, they have not made any attempts to help their situation and have listened to the bankers.

I think Canada is going to get massively fucked in the coming recession(I know this because I live here). In Canada hundreds of thousands of refugees and migrants have been let into the country(all of them are on welfare, they get free housing, free everything and they don't work, why would they work, when they are getting everything for free). People are spending beyond their means, the provinces are fighting each other(the province of BC won't let the province of Alberta build a pipeline and in turn, Alberta has imposed taxes on goods coming from BC.) The province of Quebec is buying oil from the dirty Saudis, while saying they don't want "dirty oil from Canada". The provinces of BC, Ontario, Quebec and other Eastern Provinces are getting all the equality payments coming from the Prairie Provinces, which is pissing the Prairie Provinces off. We have a kid for Prime Minister, who has no clue how to run a country, we have Muslims pushing their Sharia Law on to the country and our kid Prime Minister is supporting this, plus we have a shit ton of other problems.

Sorry for my rant, my inner Vann just woke up for a second.

kvs wrote:

Russia is finally giving the IMF the middle finger.  The IMF wants the reserve fund capital to be invested in western banking and stock market
instruments.   Russia wants to invest this money within Russia.   Hallelujah!

I turned on the subtitles, how accurate are they?

par far wrote:

kvs wrote:

Russia is finally giving the IMF the middle finger.  The IMF wants the reserve fund capital to be invested in western banking and stock market
instruments.   Russia wants to invest this money within Russia.   Hallelujah!

I turned on the subtitles, how accurate are they?

I can't turn subtitles on so I can't tell.

There are some restrictions on the use of the reserve fund for investments. So it is not a Pancho Villa style of populist financing.

PapaDragon wrote:
For those precious few here who think Russia needs high oil prices:

Russia Calls The Shots In A Fractured OPEC

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Russia-Calls-The-Shots-In-A-Fractured-OPEC.html

........
“This is natural,” Putin told media as quoted by Reuters. “Look at the price of a barrel, which Saudi Arabia uses to calculate its budget. This is significantly higher than for us.”

Indeed, Russia’s budget for this year is based on an average price of US$40 per barrel of crude as Moscow continues its cautious budgeting approach after the fallout of the 2014 price crisis. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, needs oil at US$80-85 per barrel to break even this year.

Again, there is nothing new here. Unlike with the first production cut agreement sealed in 2016, when prices were too low for anyone’s comfort, Russia was this time around reluctant from the start, not least because its oil companies were doing just fine in a lower price environment and wanted to continue to pump more rather than arrest their production growth.

This sentiment has not changed: earlier this week Rosneft’s head Igor Sechin said the company would seek compensation from Moscow if it decided that Russia will join an extension of the production cuts until the end of the year.

“Does it make sense (for Russia) to reduce (oil output) if the U.S immediately takes (our) market share?” Sechin said. “We have to defend our market share.”
........

Counter article from same site:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Putins-40-Oil-Lie.html