Russian Economy General News: #10

Oreshkin warned of a threat to the Russian economy

https://rns.online/finance/Oreshkin-predupredil-ob-ugroze-dlya-rossiiskoi-ekonomiki-2019-08-15/

Austin wrote:Oreshkin warned of a threat to the Russian economy

https://rns.online/finance/Oreshkin-predupredil-ob-ugroze-dlya-rossiiskoi-ekonomiki-2019-08-15/

And who is to blame for the onerous load from this debt, sunshine? That's right, it's the twat in charge of the CBR and her
monetarist flunkies. You want the debt to be reasonable, then change the prime rate to 2%. This moron is an example
of getting lost in the symptoms without understanding the source of the disease. There is a massive demand for credit
in Russia, because it is a credit starved economy. Instead of yapping like some f*cktard about the lending being a threat,
this moron should call for the CBR to stop its disruptive prime rate policy. The only ones who see inflationary pressure
in Russia being a serious problem are the clowns at the CBR.

Time for Putin to do his job and purge these maggots.

The economic policy of Russia is very counter growth in many areas. The monetarists in the Central bank and the graduates of "New Economic" institutes of higher learning are probably the greatest threat to Russian economic prosperity. This is really odd since their Western idols are moving towards "New Monetary Theory" which essentially says that government debt doesn't matter and is, in fact, stimulatory for growth. Couple that with an insanely high real interest rate in Russia (compared to $14 trillion in negative rate instruments globally including Japanese and German government debt).

Also, the historic performance of government-managed investment funds is atrocious. Evidently, the "economists" in Russia feel the best way to deploy "excess" tax revenue is to buy US government debt to finance the Pentagon's budget.

I have yet to actually see an updated figure for the current Russian sovereign fund, but given the price of oil in 2019 and the supposed budget break-even points, it should be well north of $100 billion. If it is not, there is something fishy going on.

calripson wrote:The economic policy of Russia is very counter growth in many areas. The monetarists in the Central bank and the graduates of "New Economic" institutes of higher learning are probably the greatest threat to Russian economic prosperity. This is really odd since their Western idols are moving towards "New Monetary Theory" which essentially says that government debt doesn't matter and is, in fact, stimulatory for growth. Couple that with an insanely high real interest rate in Russia (compared to $14 trillion in negative rate instruments globally including Japanese and German government debt).

Also, the historic performance of government-managed investment funds is atrocious. Evidently, the "economists" in Russia feel the best way to deploy "excess" tax revenue is to buy US government debt to finance the Pentagon's budget.

I have yet to actually see an updated figure for the current Russian sovereign fund, but given the price of oil in 2019 and the supposed budget break-even points, it should be well north of $100 billion. If it is not, there is something fishy going on.

I think the wealth fund must be going up since the reserve fund is really exceeding all the gloom and doom predictions of a couple of years ago.
Recall the debate in this thread on the subject.

But Putin needs to buy a clue, ASAP. He was lucky that the previous management at the CBR was pragmatic and not a collection of zealots.
The CBR maintained a prime rate of 8.2% when the CPI was 13%. There was no hyperinflation. In fact, it was exactly what the Russian economy
needed since the transition from command (directive) economics to market pricing created a huge demand for rubles to "monetize" transactions.
This process is actually still ongoing after almost 30 years in spite of the Harvard Boyz and their monetarist voodoo theories that prices
equilibrate in one year. Now we have the monetarist f*ckwad Nabiullina who is trying to maintain a close to 8% prime rate when the CPI
is under 4%. And she lies through her teeth that it is the inflation risk that justifies this policy. What frigging inflation risk? The one time
inflation spike lasting from December 2014 to March 2015 due to the ruble devaluation? What a ridiculous joke.

In fact, the stupid high interest policy of the CBR is forcing the ruble to be overvalued on the forex market. Real economists and not ex pat
amateurs who think that the forex rate is equivalent to dick size, see that overvalued currencies create economic problems. It is the domestic
analogue of Dutch disease with the ensuing suppression of exports and stimulus of imports. For Russia this is a clear negative drag on the GDP.

If Putin and his advisors want to control rent-a-crowd colour revolution street theater, then they should start by purging the CBR. It is now
the prime source of economic problems and thus public discontent. Some n-th party participants in urban riding elections are not anything
that the vast majority cares about, just like in NATO. But citizens do care about their job prospects and standard of living. That people
are taking out onerous personal loans says everything. Instead of retarded drivel from government hacks, we need clear, decisive and rapid
action to rectify this absurd situation.

The CBR just does not have to worry about Credit but also about Savers.

If they reduce the interest rates drastically that will screw the savers and either they wont save and spend or they might invest in Stock market in the hope of getting better returns.

So though 8 % Interest rate is high bring it down to 2 % or 1 % is also a bad idea , They will have to find the right balance between credit and savers , May be 4-5 % would be right balance.

Again we have some serious recessionary trend around the world , CBR needs to keep a squint eye view on this for the next 2 years because a serious recession is now a very high certainty.

Another aspect is Euro/USD versus Ruble rates , The budget has been fixed with Ruble being at certain amount for the next 3 years ......CBR needs to make sure either due to internal or external factors they keep the exchange rate within the limit the Government wants it give and take.

The Onus is not the CBR but on Putins government on how Cheap Credit can be provided to Business , They need to make good use of the Excessive Budget Surplus and Forex Surplus and see how money can be given to Business/Industry at 3-4 % interest rates to spur investment.

They should not just sit on this fund and keep the surplus growing trying to balance it out from this to that fund etc.


If there is credit crunch it is government job now to ensure how to use the surplus they have to provide funds to business at attractive interest rates via Banks or some other mechanism.

The surplus of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in the I half amounted to 2.64 trillion rubles

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/123004/

Austin wrote:The CBR just does not have to worry about Credit but also about Savers.

If they reduce the interest rates drastically that will screw the savers and either they wont save and spend or they might invest in Stock market in the hope of getting better returns.

So though 8 % Interest rate is high bring it down to 2 % or 1 % is also a bad idea , They will have to find the right balance between credit and savers , May be 4-5 % would be right balance.

Again we have some serious recessionary trend around the world , CBR needs to keep a squint eye view on this for the next 2 years because a serious recession is now a very high certainty.

Another aspect is Euro/USD versus Ruble rates , The budget has been fixed with Ruble being at certain amount for the next 3 years ......CBR needs to make sure either due to internal or external factors they keep the exchange rate within the limit the Government wants it give and take.

The Onus is not the CBR but on Putins government on how Cheap Credit can be provided to Business , They need to make good use of the Excessive Budget Surplus and Forex Surplus and see how money can be given to Business/Industry at 3-4 % interest rates to spur investment.

They should not just sit on this fund and keep the surplus growing trying to balance it out from this to that fund etc.


If there is credit crunch it is government job now to ensure how to use the surplus they have to provide funds to business at attractive interest rates via Banks or some other mechanism.

Your analysis is invalid. If savings were doing what you implicitly claim, then Russian banks would be large enough to fully credit
the economy. Instead it is a patent fact that the Russian banking sector is small and weak. So where are all those savings you
keep on talking about? Do you even know what the average savings are per capita in Russia? We are not talking about South Korea and
Japan during the 1960s. The CBR is directly suppressing the growth of Russian banks since they cannot generate viable loans at
over 10% interest rates. Until the last few years Russian companies simply borrowed abroad at 4% or lower rates. This clearly
prevented the Russian banking sector from growing.

You also fail to understand that qualitative considerations are not sufficient. You talk about supporting savers with high interest
rates but totally ignore the size of those interest rates. A prime rate of close to 8% is absurd and detrimental. It is at least
twice the inflation rate and closer to three times over sustained periods. No western bank acts like an investment house for their
depositors. They don't even pay interest equal to inflation on savings accounts. In Canada GICs spanning 4+ years bring 3% rates
of return. The real inflation is actually higher than 3%. Savings accounts bring in 0.1% growth rates.

Worrying about non-existent savings while suppressing corporate lending is simply retarded. And Nabiullina never once invokes your
argument about supporting savers. Her sole excuse for the high prime rate is inflationary instability.

Austin wrote:The surplus of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in the I half amounted to 2.64 trillion rubles

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/123004/

Time to throw this money into NATO financial instruments. God forbid that this money actually gets spent on Russian economic activity.

Current Russian government financial policy is a criminal joke. It will derail Russia's economy. So the CBR is acting in NATO's
interest and Putin is doing nothing about it. He may know something about the importance of energy, but he is clueless about
economics and finance.

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:The surplus of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in the I half amounted to 2.64 trillion rubles

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/123004/

Time to throw this money into NATO financial instruments.  God forbid that this money actually gets spent on Russian economic activity.

Current Russian government financial policy is a criminal joke.  It will derail Russia's economy.  So the CBR is acting in NATO's
interest and Putin is doing nothing about it.   He may know something about the importance of energy, but he is clueless about
economics and finance.

Dunno what you are mad about because the investments of Russian money in US has dropped considerably over the year. They usually do this as seen previously - they buy USD when low, wait for it to climb, then sell it for something else.

Anyway:

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/123024/

Total revenue of small enterprises in Russia has increased over the year by 25%

Total revenue of small enterprises in Russia grew by 25% over the last year.

The revenue of these companies increased last year by 25%. It is a significant amount. There is no reduction in the number or share of small entrepreneurship in total volume of entrepreneurs wrong to talk.

The reduction in the number of SMEs is due to the fact that a number of these companies goes into the category of larger.

Indeed, if you look at the list of small and medium entrepreneurs, which are registered in the registry of small and medium enterprises, there is a slight reduction. What is the reason? A number of small and medium entrepreneurs moving into the category of larger entrepreneurs. Such last year it was 3 thousand enterprises.

Do you really think that US treasurys are the only foreign financial instrument for Russia? Seriously?

Russia also accumulates euros and the wealth fund invests in offshore financial instruments.

Lots of talking heads in the Russian government routinely yap about how Russia's economy is too small to
absorb even the rubles it earns from oil and gas sales. So they claim the offshoring of Russian money
is a justified and rational policy. Nabiullina is right there in the center sreeching the same shite
about how the lack of absorption capacity creates inflationary risk.

Meanwhile borrowers in Russia are taking on onerous debt because they have no choice. Explain that one
away.

kvs wrote:Do you really think that US treasurys are the only foreign financial instrument for Russia?  Seriously?

Russia also accumulates euros and the wealth fund invests in offshore financial instruments.

Lots of talking heads in the Russian government routinely yap about how Russia's economy is too small to
absorb even the rubles it earns from oil and gas sales.  So they claim the offshoring of Russian money
is a justified and rational policy.  Nabiullina is right there in the center sreeching the same shite
about how the lack of absorption capacity creates inflationary risk.  

Meanwhile borrowers in Russia are taking on onerous debt because they have no choice.   Explain that one
away.

Large debt because of high interest rates from CBR. Of course they believe that such a shock of high inflow of Rubles will cause heavy devaluation and they are only partially correct because US and UK banks will attack them full throttle.

Only thing we can totally hope for is if the west sanctions Russia's debt and confiscates any assets in US. It will be a blow to them but will be a good lesson learned.

Putin understands many things - economics is not his strong point. Unfortunately, the Russian economic elite was weaned at the breast of monetarist economics and too many of them love their foreign trips where they interact with their "Western colleagues" many of whom probably reside in Northern Virginia.

In 1998, I was working in capital markets in Moscow. When the 1998 crash occurred and Russia defaulted on its debt, it was "the end of the world". Nobody would ever lend money to Russia again. Within a few years creditors were back with a vengeance and the default paradoxically was one of the best things to happen to Russia at that time.

Fast forward to 2015 and Western sanction would supposedly crash the Russian economy and lead to hyperinflation. Once again, paradoxically sanctions revitalized large parts of the Russian physical economy.

Current CBR, Wealth Fund, and Russian budget policy are way too conservative and cost the Russian economy billions. It is as if the CBR strives to achieve a credit upgrade from S&P more than to promote economic growth. Who cares about your credit rating if you are sanctioned anyway? Where is this non-existent inflationary threat? All their policies seem designed to protect the interests of foreign holders of Russian securities at the expense of the standard of living of ordinary Russians. They all should go.

Interesting new max keiser report.. of today economy..

Keiser Report: Can US Rates Go Negative?

Current CBR, Wealth Fund, and Russian budget policy are way too conservative and cost the Russian economy billions. It is as if the CBR strives to achieve a credit upgrade from S&P more than to promote economic growth. Who cares about your credit rating if you are sanctioned anyway? Where is this non-existent inflationary threat? All their policies seem designed to protect the interests of foreign holders of Russian securities at the expense of the standard of living of ordinary Russians.

Thats because RUssia is NOT an independent nation as Putin's claim..  
Russia economic policies are highly dependent on the American Empire actions.
The American System = American Empire = US and Allies when they cooperate..
So Putin's Russia.. his miserable vision ,is a Russia dependent of the western system.
Russia will have no need at all ,to be dependent of the west ,if it had a self sufficient Modern NATION..  Russia imports from outside most of their machinery and advance technology .
and depends highly its economy on selling OIL and natural gas to Europe.

Had the simian retarded and weak President Putin had a real vision for Russia Future.
It will seek for NO LESS than total independence of Russia from the west. while at the same
time driving away all Europe from the American orbit.

With the help of its scientist community ,develop a free energy cities ,so each house ,each apartment gets their energy for free , combination of solar energy that is free , with Nuclear energy and other sources . And once Russia through scientific development manage free energy ,sell that knowledge to every other major power in the world..China,India,Europe. That will bring down Middle east and American OIL business ,Petro dollar system and  will end Terrorism financing , and will collapse US economy too ,if US energy business goes down , then their entire energy sector will collapse ,dragging down US economy.

Is the lack of vision of Putin ,the lack of development of the economy model of Russia ,the reason Russia depends on the west . The west a system and Putin don't counter it... FOLLOWS IT.. so he and Russia is busted later.  Putin play by western system rules , and later complains that don't like it ..   So why he don't create his own System instead?
BRICS is an example how retarded Putin is  . HE believe that a different monetary trading port will solve Russia problems. But he completely Ignores that all those nations in BRICS also follows the American system.. So is a Leadership problem.. When you have a mediocre leader at the top ,with everyone around him ,telling him how great he is.. he will just continue doing the same mistake he does. Of Completely Ignoring the American Empire influence in the world .. by NOT countering it.  Something he could do it , if he developed a long term strategy alone (or with China help) to Create an alternative to every major popular business American have.  Digitalization of Russia economy , a NEW Internet with world wide coverage and transforming Russia economy heavily focused on energy/agriculture  towards a Space and high tech logic circuits (semiconductors) based economy ,will be a very good start. Space Tourism why not? ohh too expensive .. for sure now it is ,but innovation drive cost down ,and Computers 50 years ago ,were incredibly prohibitive for civilians for its cost.. and now anyone including poor people can buy an iphone with a superior computer to what exist 50 years ago.  Russia future of its economy and existence ,will depend of Space. If Russia fails in Space in the second round race for space manned exploration, It will face for another 50 years of problems with the US empire ,with their consolidated Influence and leadership and likely  Russia cease to exist with Putin's like idiots in charge of Russia.  It is scary the idea ,that Putin could be tempted to continue in power after 2020..  Russia needs  a Xi Jinping as President.. Perhaps Chinese can trade their president for Putin.. But i don't think they will be so fools to do that.  

In Summary US have a very corrupt ,fraudulent economic system in place..
But they can get away of it.. because of their Leadership and influence position.
They can print money , they can reset their debt.. if they so desire ,could do it
and people will continue following it.. for the reasons that They LEAD the world
development and lead in influence and everyone else including Russia follows
their system. And Putin sit down on his hands ,waiting for things to solve on their own..
with time and hoping that people will follow Russia initiative of not using dollars..
but guess what the Moron President don't get.. You can't buy American technology and their digital media services unless you use their system.. So this is why Putin helps to perpetuate the system he claims to dislike.. by not countering it. By remaining passive , and developing Russia economy in the same way Soviet Union did it..commodities exports economy. but without their ambitious space program.

LONG READ: Putin's 20 years on the job in numbers


https://www.intellinews.com/long-read-putin-s-20-years-on-the-job-in-numbers-166248/?source=russia

Austin wrote:LONG READ: Putin's 20 years on the job in numbers


https://www.intellinews.com/long-read-putin-s-20-years-on-the-job-in-numbers-166248/?source=russia

The usual Ben Aris excrement:

However, Putin was incredibly lucky. The 1998 crisis was caused by the collapse of oil prices on the back of an Asian crisis a year earlier. But by 2000 oil prices began to recover from their low of $10 per barrel and over the next decade climbed inexorably to a peak of about $150. The flood of petrodollars made rebuilding Russia much easier, but to his credit Putin didn't squander the money but used it to build a new country.

Ah, gas station posing as a country. The oil prices remained low well into 2004, but Russia's industrial and GDP growth was high starting
from 1999:

https://www.multpl.com/russia-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year

http://www.ereport.ru/en/stat.php?razdel=country&count=russia&table=ipecia&time=2

http://chartsbin.com/view/oau

GDP: Industrial Production: Oil price (2013 dollars)

1999: 6.4% 8.1% 25.13
2000: 10.0% 8.8% 38.55
2001: 5.1% 4.9% 32.15
2002: 4.74% 3.7% 32.40
2003: 7.3% 7.0% 36.50
2004: 7.18% 6.4% 47.19

Just in case some smarmy know it all claims the oil price jacked up "enough":

1990: 42.29
1991: 34.21
1992: 32.08
1993: 27.36
1994: 24.86
1995: 26.01
1996: 30.69
1997: 27.71
1998: 18.17

According to Aris and other NATO clowns Russia's economy is a one-commodity banana republic. Then how do you explain
that its economy was in catastrophic decline during the 1990s until 1) the financial meltdown in 1998 and 2) arrival of Putin in 1999?
Clearly there was no dramatic surge in oil prices that correlates with the GDP growth. Using 1998 as a reference year is highly
misleading.

The financial meltdown in 1998 resulted in the collapse of the GKO pyramid scheme that artificially maintained the forex ruble value
well above what it should have been. This resulted in an import flood (Yeltsin and Harvard Boys were all into free trade) which
suppressed Russian industry and did not give it a chance to retool and adapt to market pricing. Following monetarist voodoo,
Yeltsin's regime refused to monetize the Russian economy which resulted in a literal shortage of rubles and contributed to
non-payments and barter economics. The 1998 meltdown resulted in a shock ruble devaluation that allowed Russian companies
to regain domestic markets and recover.

Putin was lucky that he got intelligent management at the CBR during his tenure before 2012. The money supply was allowed
to increase by 50% per year but inflation was below 15% over most of this time. This is proof that market pricing and transactions
required a transition involving monetization by the government. The notion that the existing pool of rubles would magically
fill every pricing transaction was retarded or fraud by the Harvard Boys and Jeffrey Sachs. To this day Russia is still showing
monetization transients in sectors such as the military industrial complex.

I think it is the Government that is strangling the economy. They can do many things without waiting for CBR I can think of few

1 ) Give Long Tax Break to Industry and reduce Personal Tax to spur up spending and investment

2 ) Use certain percentage of the surplus budget money and Forex to create a special bank which can lend at 2 % interest rate for industry/SMEs. ( They dont have to depend on CBR to reduce interest rates )

3 ) Ask CBR by passing a law to have a predictable rate cut every year say 1 % short of any unpredictable catastrophic where CBR will have full freedom to act to preserve macro economic stability and inflation. The Fed has similar policy called Forward Guidance.

4 ) Remove full freedom on flow of forex to prevent money going out and letting people keep money in USD/Euro and Ruble , Russia does not need this and Oligarch use it to take all the money out of this country.

I think Putins government can take these 4 steps and spur economic growth without waiting for CBR to some magic for them.

Austin wrote:I think it is the Government that is strangling the economy.  They can do many things without waiting for CBR I can think of few

1 ) Give Long Tax Break to Industry and reduce Personal Tax to spur up spending and investment

2 )  Use certain percentage of the surplus budget money and Forex to create a special bank which can lend at 2 % interest rate for industry/SMEs.  ( They dont have to depend on CBR to reduce interest rates )

3 ) Ask CBR by passing a law to have a predictable rate cut every year say 1 % short of any unpredictable catastrophic where CBR will have full freedom to act to preserve macro economic stability and inflation.  The Fed has similar policy called Forward Guidance.

4 ) Remove full freedom on flow of forex to prevent money going out and letting people keep money in USD/Euro and Ruble , Russia does not need this and Oligarch use it to take all the money out of this country.

I think Putins government can take these 4 steps  and spur economic growth without waiting for CBR to some magic for them.

Option one will destroy the budget as personal tax is one of the smallest in the world and their budget revenue helps for overall investments which Russian government is still largest by a long shot compared to private companies.

Option 2 and 4 are the only two that makes the most sense and will actually spur the most growth.

Sounds like Reaganomics

The reduction of Income Tax will give more money in peoples had to buy , So even a small reduction of 2 % will help it is also physiological

Russia is both a Budget Surplus Nation and Forex kitty and NWF is well funded to take care of any unforseen challanges with Budget.

Right now the Putin government has a very bad policy of keeping finance under strict diet even though they have back to back 2 years of surplus , Money that can be put into the economy to work for economy rather then keeping them in some banks under lock and key.

When you know that some things wont work the way you want you dont keep banging your head against it but work on an effective alternative.

Interest rates cut by CBR is not a predictable thing like FOMC so Putin has to find out alternate ways to work out that shortcoming to boost the economy.

Austin wrote:When you know that some things wont work the way you want you dont keep banging your head against it but work on an effective alternative.

Interest rates cut by CBR is not a predictable thing like FOMC so Putin has to find out alternate ways to work out that shortcoming to boost the economy.

They already did. But haven't committed yet.

That is the national program that was outlined in the trillions of rubles.

Essentially, this year they have not spent much or at all in order to plan. Money is slowly being released this year and should see a large boost next year because of the government spending. By sounds of it, both private and public spending is rather very high for this but for it to start, it requires the government to do their part first. And as mentioned in this thread before, they so far have not spent much or at all on what they need for it to work. Its all mostly due to incompetence of regional leaders who are stating they need more time to lay out a plan for their development.

Well to be fair the last thing they need to do is go on a public money spending spree... a rushed job could see statues to Stalin and all sorts of total wastes of time and money... they need to look at infrastructure that will make things easier and improve the life of the residents and make commercial sense to allow for growth.

Think twice before spending the money. Otherwise you end up with bridges to nowwhere or train stations in the middle of empty fields.