Russian Economy General News: #10

miketheterrible wrote:So you are now joining the "Russian corrupt" narrative by saying it's a political struggle?

re-read again, this time with understanding right?

Austin wrote:Let Law follow its full course , If you keep releasing corrupt business men no matter which nationality they below it would leagalise corruption and make mockery of law and law enforcement.

Law is kind of abstract reflecting  balance of interests. Elite interests. Look at US/UK law: did you ever see   any case when "independent court" ruled again elites interests? Me neither.  Putting Chubais behind bars means liberals lost their power.      

kvs wrote:Regardless of the stink, the arrest of crooks of any nationality committing crimes in Russia is the right and proper thing.
This particular case actually indicates that Russia feels strong enough that it can bear another wave of anti-Russian
hysteria in the west.   This should send a message to the crooks and their NATO patrons that the climate in Russia
has changed.   Time to start packing your bags.

I hope that with all geopolitical changes internal balance of power had shifted too. This would enable  "государственники" to kick "либерастов" out. I hope.

No no no so packing bags to prison      

miketheterrible wrote:I did. Maybe someone else that can read your "English" may know what you are saying. KVS?

I think he is referring to the alleged pro and anti west west factions in Russian elites. I think such divisions are grossly
overblown since if they really did exist, then they would be in a state of civil war as there is no middle ground regarding
NATO. This would result in a state of paralysis in Russia's government which could not last indefinitely without any negative
consequences. Putin's faction and the Russian people who vote him into office are the ones that count. It is Putin who is dancing
around trying to balance Russia's response to NATO aggression. Nobody is forcing him to do so.

Analysis of Russian politics is skewed propaganda BS even inside Russia itself. All sorts of NATO narratives to delegitimize
Putin's government are pushed including the so-called rule of a kleptocratic oligarchy and rampant corruption. Clearly the
only place this BS flies is in Banderastan. But supposedly Banderastan has no significant corruption and oligarchs have little
effect on the governance of the country.

kvs wrote:
I think he is referring to the alleged pro and anti west west factions in Russian elites.   I think such divisions are grossly
overblown since if they really did exist, then they would be in a state of civil war as there is no middle ground regarding
NATO.  This would result in a state of paralysis in Russia's government which could not last indefinitely without any negative
consequences.  Putin's faction and the Russian people who vote him into office are the ones that count.   It is Putin who is dancing
around trying to balance Russia's response to NATO aggression.   Nobody is forcing him to do so.  
   

in e ach country there is a balance of interests in elites. Putin is not ruling alone. Neither Stalin did. People's support definitely help but is not really required as western democracies prove

We dont know too many things about what is happening there. Is Russian elite "fully pro Russian" ,well Friedman is richest citizen of London, Most o oligarchs have their assets / companies registered still abroad while mines re in Russia. Putin is "long horizon" strategist. He's always been plying with cards he had and his strategy of slow tuning elites more national seems to work. It doesn't mean his decisions are free from taking into account different fractions in elites or geopolitical factors we dont even think bout here. On he contrary. As we can see no oligarchs seem to staging riots.


To me most important task of Putin now is... to ensure his successor will be good enough to continue Russia's way up.

Rostec will build an LNG plant in the Arkhangelsk region

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6217339

ARCHANGELSK, March 14. / TASS /. State Corporation Rostec is investing 14 billion rubles until 2024 in the construction of a plant for the production of liquefied natural gas and the transfer to LNG of a number of facilities in the Arkhangelsk region. This was reported on Thursday in a corporation press release.

Austin wrote:55 trillion in reserve: how did the authorities evaluate all the natural resources of Russia

Подробнее на РБК:
https://www.rbc.ru/economics/14/03/2019/5c8931029a7947b028b8886c

to me this is way too little.  This is only ~ trillion USD, not only to me

The assessment was made on the basis of Form No. 1-RSPI - a form of statistical reporting that contains information about the current market value of mineral reserves, explained RBC Director for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Sergey Vygon Consulting Sergey Klubkov. Seriously taking , such an assessment is not necessary, he points out. In essence, this is an unsuccessful attempt by the Ministry of Natural Resources to obtain an estimate of the cost of oil and gas reserves in Russia based on the collection of heterogeneous data from subsoil users themselves: various prerequisites for hydrocarbon prices, a limited assessment period of 20 years, lack of validity of raw materials production profiles, etc. In addition, the form contains an incorrect formula for calculating the value of stocks, says Tails.

Подробнее на РБК:
https://www.rbc.ru/economics/14/03/2019/5c8931029a7947b028b8886c

Gas of the people: the transfer of cars of private traders to HBO will be paid by the state
Methane will help avoid future environmental problems

The transfer of private cars of Russians to gas engine fuel (methane) will be subsidized by the state. The corresponding provision is contained in the draft federal subprogram “Development of the gas motor fuel market”, which Izvestia has become familiar with. The company will also subsidize the production and development of gas vehicles by auto companies, the purchase of bit-fuel vehicles for state and municipal needs, and the transfer of taxi drivers, passenger and freight carriers from gasoline to gas equipment. Car owners will be able to get 27 thousand rubles when transferring a passenger car to HBO and maximum 147 thousand rubles when switching to a gas main tractor. This will help to significantly improve the ecology of cities , experts say.

https://iz.ru/856654/timur-khasanov/gaz-naroda-perevod-avtomobilei-chastnikov-na-gbo-oplatit-gosudarstvo



not sure about methane and ecology, but generally this change would be beneficial unlike forced eclectic cars in EU.

magnumcromagnon wrote:
Most of the guys suggested aren't well known, the only proper successor would be a highly-visible statesman and a well-known commodity, and there's only 2 that come to mind....Lavrov and Shoigu. Shoigu doesn't nearly have as much diplomatic experience as Lavrov, and Lavrov is well-versed in knowing when to speak diplomatic-speech, and when to be blunt...so Lavrov it is. I foresee the Eurasian Union forming, where the president is VVP (with Lavrov taking over his old post),  and the prime minister of the Eurasian Union is Nazarbayev. Lavrov will focus on purely on domestic Russian matters, while VVP will focus on greater Eurasian strategic geo-politics.

Unlikely, although Lavrov  as you s ay would be gre at candidate but there is one thing  against... Age. Putin can rule as long as Lavrov could.  Putin's successor should be younger by generation. They say Dyumin but we unlikely to learn till successor comes      

Lavrov born: March 1950
Putin born:   October 1952

The first businessman from the United States, Leonid Kuraev, from the “Titov list” returned to Russia

The representative of the business ombudsman, Dmitry Grigoriadi, noted that before that, seven businessmen from Europe had been returned to Russia
MOSCOW, March 16. / TASS /. Kaluga businessman Leonid Kuraev on Friday returned to Russia from the United States, where he was after initiating a criminal case against him. He became the first "American participant" from the list of business ombudsman Boris Titov, representative of the Presidential Commissioner for the Protection of the Rights of Entrepreneurs Dmitry Grigoriadi told TASS on Saturday.

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6225365

magnumcromagnon wrote:
I think your overthinking this. 2020 will be the year the Eurasian Union is formed, and VVP could transition to that post by Q1 of 2021, and Lavrov will be 70/71 (younger than Trump). I'm not expecting him to be president for 20 years, but say 6-10 years (which should be enough time), where Lavrov retires and there'll likely be a 'true successor' in their 40-50's that can come up under his tutelage. The most important thing is that they have to a be well known commodity, with well known accomplishments that the average Federation citizen can reliable recount. Having a unknown to take over would be valuable ammunition for NATO destabilization (rumors of that coming by 2024), so the more well known a figure that they are, the more likelihood the destabilization will fail.

I disagree. 2020 is way to early for any changes. There is near-war time for Russia. You dont change leader with high level national trust in such times. Besides economical  transformation si much more important for Russians then Eurasian union now.  No economically strong Russia no Eurasian union

Yandex started testing its own social network

https://ria.ru/20190316/1551853162.html

MOSCOW, March 16 - RIA News. Yandex began testing a new social service Aura, which will be built into the company's own application. It is reported by Tjournal , citing the press service of "Yandex".
It is noted that "Aura" will find for the user new friends using neural networks, machine learning and other technologies of "Yandex", as well as use the information already provided by the user on other company resources. In addition, people will be able to independently select an audience for their publications, for example, based on age, gender or geolocation.

So far, you can get into a new social network only by invitation from a testing participant, and everyone can invite up to five people per day.
The social network provides several stages of moderation. Automatic pre-moderation recognizes words and images that are prohibited by Yandex rules (profanity, shocking photos, insults, etc.) and does not let them through. Content can also complain. Then the moderators will check it and in case of violation of the rules will be deleted.
The date of the full launch of the new social network "Yandex" has not yet named.

lets' move there our forum

magnumcromagnon wrote:
Do you at least agree the person has to be well known figure? Maybe the transition happens by 2025, and some younger popular figure can up?

it is not up to me to agree on, Im afrid. it it about Russians. If its Putin's candidate he is ok for me already

My educated guess is that this would be somebody not really liberal, young ( I means 40-50 ) but first and most importantly strategist, not emotionally labile dude. Dyumin fits generally this characteristics. He is not known now but we have still 5 years more...intensive campaign can do miracles.


Of course me thinks VVP has many candidates now being evaluated. Most suitable will be chosen.

Kudrin is engaged in his usual Trojan Horse propaganda drivel. He claims that Russia 30 years behind the G7 by using a Mickey Mouse
measure that says more than Kudrin understands. The metric is as follows:

Productivity = GDP / (Working Population * Total Hours Worked in a Year)

This an example of why economists can be total morons. If I take the working population and shrink it down, then I get more productivity.
In the limit of zero workers we have infinite productivity. Another dirty trick is that GDP is extraterritorial. The above formula cheats
on the productivity if the GDP is generated offshore. The G7 countries have offshored a lot of their industrial jobs to China and the other
parts of the world. But at the same time their transnational corporations are a big fraction of the global economy. Transnationals
contribute to the G7 GDP via their activity in China and all countries outside the G7.

https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/flowchart/2011/06/30/why-us-companies-arent-so-american-anymore

So 40% of the profit of the S&P 500 is from offshore activity. But it is not just profit. G7 companies pay other G7 companies when
they do work outside of the G7. All the expenses of transnationals are not contained in the local countries of their offshore activity.
So most likely 40% of the US GDP is due to offshore activity and I do not see a reason why the UK, Germany, France, Japan, etc. would
have a substantially smaller fraction.

But there is also a domestic boost from dominating offshore markets. Germany and Japan export a vast number of cars and other vehicles.
They use highly automated manufacturing plants to do this since they export revenues can generate jobs elsewhere in the economy.
Although these jobs are probably lower payed.

So the high productivity numbers for the G7 are all due to minimizing the domestic worker count required to generate the GDP. This is
not a legitimate metric since it hides the fact that the GDP is actually being generated by workers offshore. The automobile sector
actually helps to distort this metric since it is highly automated. It can be highly automated because of offshore demand.

Kudrin doesn't care that the G7 middle class is shrinking due to all the offshoring over the last 40 years. He is a monetarist clown who
believes in trickle down economics. As long as the 1% owner class are happy, then magically jobs and prosperity will appear for the 99%
working class. This is manifestly not the case anywhere on the planet. Russia's GDP started to grow together with the standard of
living only when the drinking of the monetarist koolaid was stopped after 1998. Kudrin needs to be fired from his current post.

Saudi Minister warned against new sanctions against Russia

BAKU, March 17 - RIA News. Possible new US sanctions against Russia, if adopted, will affect the whole world, said the Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia, Khalid Al-Falih, at a press conference.
“Russia is a big supplier of gas to Europe, oil to China. If this happens, it will affect Europe, China and the whole world,” the minister said.

According to him, Saudi Arabia positively looks at cooperation with Russia, the countries are taking the right joint steps to stabilize the market.
"Russia is a significant supplier of energy resources, a technological leader, occupies an important place in the space industry, and so on. We are sitting at the same round table with Russia and other producers discussing how to stabilize the global oil market," said Al-Falih.

https://ria.ru/20190317/1551877113.html


Saudis see what Kudrin doesn't

kvs wrote:

Productivity = GDP / (Working Population * Total Hours Worked in a Year)

GDP in $ ? then country with printer is the most productive one

more seriously - Me thinks Kudrin is being used by VVP as a tool . More less lik e MikeTT sid. Of course he is annoying, backward liberst but for some reason VVP finds his service beneficial.
As an accounting chamber head he can annoy many people who dont listen to Putin

In Bryansk launched the production of transistors and chips for smartphones and laptops

TASS, March 19. The production of transistors and microcircuits with design standards of 500 nanometers for digital technology was launched in Bryansk with the support of the Industry Development Fund (FER). The launch of the new production line will reduce the share of foreign manufacturers in the market of transistors and integrated circuits in micro-housings from 95% to 30%, the government's website reported on Tuesday .

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6235637

GarryB wrote:

Do you at least agree the person has to be well known figure? Maybe the transition happens by 2025, and some younger popular figure can up?

How well known was Putin when Yeltsin picked him as his successor... which was possibly the only thing Yeltsin did right in my opinion.

hehe Im not gonna argue with that . BTW Today's way Nazabayev resigned might be an idea for Putin's successor...

smart one. Although Nazarbayev has left but is still kept one almost all posts (there was mentioned today 5 or which 1 he left , yet successor can prove himself and "legitimize" in eyes of people.