Russian Civil Aviation: News #3

GarryB wrote:Too many foreign components... it is essentially a new helicopter that fits between the Mi-2 which was foreign produced anyway, and the Mi-8/17 which is just a little too big for some jobs.

I would think the Ansat and Ka-226 made an Mi-2 replacement less urgent, and I would think foreign helicopters will sneak in to fill the gap if they don't sort their shit out and get rid of the french and austrian parts...

CR929 - why does China need this plane and why Russia

Published by 10/18/2020, 11:09 PM |


(...)
Russia's goals:
1. Possibility to share the costs of developing the SHFDMS.
2. Get a capacious Chinese air passenger market.
3. Eliminate the transfer of key technologies to Beijing.
Currently, work is underway in Russia to resume production of the Il-96-400M. This liner should be viewed as a transitional aircraft until the CR929 appears. The Il-96-400M is unable to fully compete with the B787, A330neo or A350 aircraft. A four-engine aircraft of comparable passenger capacity will always lose in economic efficiency to a two-engine liner, especially if a four-engine aircraft is equipped with a power plant of the previous generation.
According to the chief designer of CR929 from the Russian side, Maxim Litvinov, in the next 20 years, the Russian market for SHFDMS will comprise 50 aircraft, and the Chinese market - 450-500 aircraft. KLA sees Russia's need for wide-body aircraft until 2037 in the amount of 140 aircraft, of which 63 airliners belong to the group of up to 300 seats. The demand of Chinese airlines for ShF aircraft is 9 times more and amounts to 1,260 airliners.


(...)
Russia can independently develop such an aircraft, but selling even 200-300 aircraft of this type is not a real task. First of all, due to the lack of demand for such quantities of SHFDMS in the domestic market. Secondly, in order to sell such machines abroad, very broad cooperation with foreign suppliers is required. But in the context of incessant sanctions and the refusal of foreign "partners" to work with Russian high-tech companies both under current and future contracts, this is completely unpromising. Loyal countries will buy cars with only Russian components, but such countries, as a rule, need single-piece wide-body aircraft. Therefore, it is advisable to divide on an equal footing the cost of developing a promising liner, while agreeing, that the final assembly will be carried out in Shanghai, leaving behind the design, testing and production of the most complex part of the airframe - the PKM wing. And no matter how selfish it sounds, a partner in the person of China, having a very capacious market, will provide both countries with a return on the development costs of the aircraft.

(...)

Russia can independently develop such an aircraft, but selling even 200-300 aircraft of this type is not a real task. First of all, due to the lack of demand for such quantities of SHFDMS in the domestic market. Secondly, in order to sell such machines abroad, very broad cooperation with foreign suppliers is required. But in the context of incessant sanctions and the refusal of foreign "partners" to work with Russian high-tech companies both under current and future contracts, this is completely unpromising. Loyal countries will buy cars with only Russian components, but such countries, as a rule, need single-piece wide-body aircraft. Therefore, it is advisable to divide on an equal footing the cost of developing a promising liner, while agreeing, that the final assembly will be carried out in Shanghai, leaving behind the design, testing and production of the most complex part of the airframe - the PKM wing. And no matter how selfish it sounds, a partner in the person of China, having a very capacious market, will provide both countries with a return on the development costs of the aircraft.
Participation in the CR929 joint project does not imply the transfer of key technologies to Beijing. Because of this, certain circles in the PRC consider Russia not a very good partner. Basically, we are not trying to be "white and fluffy" for everyone. Naturally, China wants to get everything at once for its money invested in the development of the liner. But it doesn't work that way. India also demanded to share the key technologies of the Su-57 (PAK FA, FGFA), Russia did not agree to this, and the fifth generation fighter for Delhi is not visible even in the long term. Therefore, the "epithets" about "bad and petty partners", which are given in the publicationGuanzha, we will consider a manifestation of small human weaknesses.
Thus, both countries want to develop their own wide-body passenger aircraft, and the joint development could reduce costs and expand the original customer base. But Beijing, given the inability to independently build a modern wide-body airliner and the capacity of its market for passenger air transportation, is vitally interested in the CR929 project. At the same time, Russia should not selfishly use China's technological dependence in this area, but participate in the joint project as widely as possible.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:A very interesting article on the widebody issue (I did not report here the translation of the part about the chinese needs and goal, please see it directly in the link below).

The only question here is why (according to the author) should the development of a 2 engine version of the il96 will be so much expensive that it will be a problem for Russia....
It cannot be compared with the development cost of the A380, that was much bigger than anything built by airbus before.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:A very interesting article on the widebody issue (I did not report here the translation of the part about the chinese needs and goal, please see it directly in the link below).

The only question here is why (according to the author) should the development of a 2 engine version of the il96 will be so much expensive that it will be a problem for Russia....
It cannot be compared with the development cost of the A380, that was much bigger than anything built by airbus before.

https://aviation21.ru/cr929-zachem-etot-samolyot-nuzhen-kitayu-i-zachem-rossii/

CR929 - why does China need this plane and why Russia

Published by 10/18/2020, 11:09 PM |


(...)
Russia's goals:
1. Possibility to share the costs of developing the SHFDMS.
2. Get a capacious Chinese air passenger market.
3. Eliminate the transfer of key technologies to Beijing.
Currently, work is underway in Russia to resume production of the Il-96-400M. This liner should be viewed as a transitional aircraft until the CR929 appears. The Il-96-400M is unable to fully compete with the B787, A330neo or A350 aircraft. A four-engine aircraft of comparable passenger capacity will always lose in economic efficiency to a two-engine liner, especially if a four-engine aircraft is equipped with a power plant of the previous generation.
According to the chief designer of CR929 from the Russian side, Maxim Litvinov, in the next 20 years, the Russian market for SHFDMS will comprise 50 aircraft, and the Chinese market - 450-500 aircraft. KLA sees Russia's need for wide-body aircraft until 2037 in the amount of 140 aircraft, of which 63 airliners belong to the group of up to 300 seats. The demand of Chinese airlines for ShF aircraft is 9 times more and amounts to 1,260 airliners.


(...)
Russia can independently develop such an aircraft, but selling even 200-300 aircraft of this type is not a real task. First of all, due to the lack of demand for such quantities of SHFDMS in the domestic market. Secondly, in order to sell such machines abroad, very broad cooperation with foreign suppliers is required. But in the context of incessant sanctions and the refusal of foreign "partners" to work with Russian high-tech companies both under current and future contracts, this is completely unpromising. Loyal countries will buy cars with only Russian components, but such countries, as a rule, need single-piece wide-body aircraft. Therefore, it is advisable to divide on an equal footing the cost of developing a promising liner, while agreeing, that the final assembly will be carried out in Shanghai, leaving behind the design, testing and production of the most complex part of the airframe - the PKM wing. And no matter how selfish it sounds, a partner in the person of China, having a very capacious market, will provide both countries with a return on the development costs of the aircraft.

(...)

Russia can independently develop such an aircraft, but selling even 200-300 aircraft of this type is not a real task. First of all, due to the lack of demand for such quantities of SHFDMS in the domestic market. Secondly, in order to sell such machines abroad, very broad cooperation with foreign suppliers is required. But in the context of incessant sanctions and the refusal of foreign "partners" to work with Russian high-tech companies both under current and future contracts, this is completely unpromising. Loyal countries will buy cars with only Russian components, but such countries, as a rule, need single-piece wide-body aircraft. Therefore, it is advisable to divide on an equal footing the cost of developing a promising liner, while agreeing, that the final assembly will be carried out in Shanghai, leaving behind the design, testing and production of the most complex part of the airframe - the PKM wing. And no matter how selfish it sounds, a partner in the person of China, having a very capacious market, will provide both countries with a return on the development costs of the aircraft.
Participation in the CR929 joint project does not imply the transfer of key technologies to Beijing. Because of this, certain circles in the PRC consider Russia not a very good partner. Basically, we are not trying to be "white and fluffy" for everyone. Naturally, China wants to get everything at once for its money invested in the development of the liner. But it doesn't work that way. India also demanded to share the key technologies of the Su-57 (PAK FA, FGFA), Russia did not agree to this, and the fifth generation fighter for Delhi is not visible even in the long term. Therefore, the "epithets" about "bad and petty partners", which are given in the publication Guanzha, we will consider a manifestation of small human weaknesses.
Thus, both countries want to develop their own wide-body passenger aircraft, and the joint development could reduce costs and expand the original customer base. But Beijing, given the inability to independently build a modern wide-body airliner and the capacity of its market for passenger air transportation, is vitally interested in the CR929 project. At the same time, Russia should not selfishly use China's technological dependence in this area, but participate in the joint project as widely as possible.

Well Ansat and Ka226 are about half of the size of the Ka60/ ka62...

And probably you are right... too many foreign components... anyway it is not a superfluous program. The aircraft will be used and may have also a good export potential, currently hampered by the fact that several of possible customer for Russian equipment are not in Washington's friends list, so until there are foreign components those helicopters cannot be easily exported.

Note: I am not only talking about the military version, even the purely civilian version can be blocked (as US blocked the export of ssj100 to Iran).

Anyway the domestic engine for it should be ready in the next 3 to 4 years. Unfortunately the one in development from Saturn and announced in their website since at least 15 years went nowhere.

In addition another 20 or so new il 96 could be produced as refueling aircrafts, maybe 5 for government use and another 30 as civilian cargo (Volga dnepr a couple of years ago was planning to buy about the same number of 777 in cargo version, in addition to the 747

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Well anyway if the CR929 proceed, most of the development cost for a new wing can be covered by this program. They may be able to reuse it for a twin engine aircraft based on the CR929 as well. Actually they can make the new il 96, a sort of russified CR929, where all the Chinese and foreign components are replaced by russian ones. If the market is for 50 widebodies for passenger planes in Russia, than they can split it between the 2 (not to piss off china too much). In addition another 20 or so new il 96 could be produced as refueling aircrafts, maybe 5 for government use and another 30 as civilian cargo (Volga dnepr a couple of years ago was planning to buy about the same number of 777 in cargo version, in addition to the 747

https://theloadstar.com/volga-dnepr-stuns-market-multi-billion-dollar-order-boeing-freighters/

william.boutros wrote:

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Well anyway if the CR929 proceed, most of the development cost for a new wing can be covered by this program. They may be able to reuse it for a twin engine aircraft based on the CR929 as well. Actually they can make the new il 96, a sort of russified CR929, where all the Chinese and foreign components are replaced by russian ones. If the market is for 50 widebodies for passenger planes in Russia, than they can split it between the 2 (not to piss off china too much). In addition another 20 or so new il 96 could be produced as refueling aircrafts, maybe 5 for government use and another 30 as civilian cargo (Volga dnepr a couple of years ago was planning to buy about the same number of 777 in cargo version, in addition to the 747

https://theloadstar.com/volga-dnepr-stuns-market-multi-billion-dollar-order-boeing-freighters/

Man, you need to work in business.

LMFS wrote:

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Man, you need to work in engineering!

Why a large part of the people working in business do not have a clue of medium and long term consequences of their actions?

Well said. The world is seriously fucked-up due to so many arrogant managers thinking that actual engineering can be faked as easily as powerpoints. This people need to be sent back to school (with a stopover in jail) and let the ones that actually know what they are doing take care.

kvs wrote:

LMFS wrote:

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Man, you need to work in engineering!

Why a large part of the people working in business do not have a clue of medium and long term consequences of their actions?

Well said. The world is seriously fucked-up due to so many arrogant managers thinking that actual engineering can be faked as easily as powerpoints. This people need to be sent back to school (with a stopover in jail) and let the ones that actually know what they are doing take care.

Management is a whole different universe.   In the Canadian government they decided to adopt the management fashion that
managers do not have to have any experience with the activity they are managing.    Yes, that is the S Class nonsense that
is popular these days.   Back in the day (maybe not so good but better than now in many ways) managers would start at the
bottom and work their way up.   So engineers would be managing engineers, etc.   These managers knew the nuances of their
field (if they were competent) and did their job well.

Now we have the idiotic belief that some manager trained in "management studies" (much like gender studies which are part
of the larger class called basket weaving) have all the tools to manage.   That they will not understand the problems and limitations
of what they are managing is somehow not important.   They just need to follow a cookie cutter template and everything will be
hunky dory.   Doing science for a living, I can say outright that this is total, unmitigated garbage "thinking".   The saying "the
Devil is in the details" is folk wisdom from thousands of years of real world experience.   A manager who does not have experience
as an engineer cannot manage engineering activity properly.   No ifs and buts about it.    Spending all your time in long meetings
trying to basically teach your manager how to walk is a total and criminal waste of time.    And how is the manager supposed to
have authority if his underlings are more qualified to make most of the decisions?

Tsavo Lion wrote:Last commercial flight of the Tu-154: https://ria.ru/20201028/tu-154-1581865614.html

There were plans to take the middle engine off to reduce fuel consumption, but they had no engines powerful enough for such a heavy plane.

Well said. The world is seriously fucked-up due to so many arrogant managers thinking that actual engineering can be faked as easily as powerpoints. This people need to be sent back to school (with a stopover in jail) and let the ones that actually know what they are doing take care.