The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

Video at link. Gives a good idea of the state of the ground to carry a T-72.

The Intel Crab
@IntelCrab
DPR leader Denis Pushilin made a surprise inspection of militant tank and motorized rifle units yesterday.

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1371839848810754051

If Russia intervenes, the Ukrainian army will have to abandon its offensive in the Donbass

In an enlightening article, the Ukrainian media outlet Strana revealed that not only is the Ukrainian army preparing for an offensive in the Donbass, but that there is an emergency plan to stop the attack if Russia were to send its own army in. This information is nothing less than a debunking of seven years of Ukrainian propaganda, which claims that Ukraine is fighting Russia in the Donbass.

The article is based on sources in the Ukrainian army and the Defence Ministry, and begins by questioning the reality of Kiev’s preparation for an offensive against the Donbass.

Strana’s sources on the front line confirm that there is no longer a ceasefire, nor a withdrawal of troops and equipment. The source even makes it clear that it was Ukraine that first violated this provision of the Minsk package of measures, and that the DPR and LPR (Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics) did so only afterwards, in response to the violation by the Ukrainian army.

“Our soldiers went to the old positions, which we left in 2020 as part of the troop disengagement. As a result, the separatists also moved and occupied their old positions. That is to say, in fact, there is no longer any disengagement – there are no longer two or three kilometres between us and the separatists as before. The situation is the same as in 2018 – there are only 400-700 metres between the positions,” an unit officer stationed in the Donbass told Strana.

Strana’s source also mentions that there are two inspections a day in the trenches to check the ammunition stock, and that the equipment and weapons are in good condition. The headquarters requires maps of minefields in the neutral zone, and checks the supply of fuel, uniforms and food.

Further evidence of offensive preparation according to this source is the fact that soldiers in active units are given very little leave. The kind of thing that is common when there is a threat of attack, or preparation for an offensive.

To verify this assumption, Strana then turns to another source in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, who says that the General Staff has long been developing several options for recovering the DPR and LPR territories, and intends to use the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh as a model.

“There are several options for the course of events, therefore, several basic plans are ready for them. Now there is a serious advantage on the AFU side. There are more personnel, better armament, better supply of troops as well. The General Staff has carefully studied the experience of the recent war in Karabakh, including the actions of modern drones. Which are already in the inventory of the armed forces. That is, all conditions are now in place to return a significant part of the uncontrolled territories to Ukraine. All it takes is an order from the commander-in-chief to launch an offensive,” says Strana’s source.

BUT, because there is a but in this kind of rather too pretty plan, if Russia sends its army to intervene then the Ukrainian army will have to give up its offensive against the Donbass and withdraw.

“In this case, the AFU offensive will be stopped. With a high degree of probability, the troops will then have to withdraw, so as not to fall again into cauldrons,” says the Strana source in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.

In other words, for the Ukrainian army’s offensive in the Donbass to work, Russia must not intervene. The problem for Kiev is that Russia has no intention of letting several hundred thousand of its citizens die on its border without reacting. A problem that Strana’s source is well aware of.

“Several large units of the Russian army are deployed on the border with the Donbass. Including heavy equipment and artillery. According to our estimates, the Russian army needs less than a day to be deployed and put into action in the Donbass,“ said a source in the Defence Ministry.

Such statements are far from the grandiloquent assertions of some Ukrainian officials who assured us that the Ukrainian army was capable of facing the Russian army.

And above all, without wanting to, Strana’s source, as well as the media itself, have just torpedoed seven years of Ukrainian propaganda concerning Russian aggression in the Donbass!

I remind you that Ukraine has been shouting for seven years that Russia has invaded the Donbass, that the DPR and LPR are occupation administrations, and that the Ukrainian army is holding back the Russian army (in short).

Except that what Strana and her source tell us is that the Russian army is still well stationed on the other side of the border (see bold sentences above), i.e. in Russia! I would like someone to explain to me how an army of occupation can invade and occupy a territory without being there! The myth of Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the Donbass occupation just shattered in one sentence.

Strana has just admitted that in fact the Russian army is NOT in the Donbass. This is what allows the Ukrainian general staff to fantasise about a future military recovery of the DPR and LPR territories! Because, as his source says, if Russia intervenes, the Ukrainian army will have to retreat so as not to end up caught in a cauldron (as in Debaltsevo or Ilovaysk). This destroys the second pillar of post-Maidan Ukrainian propaganda, namely that Ukraine has allegedly been holding back the Russian invader for seven years!

In fact, Strana’s source admits what I have been saying for a long time, namely that if the Ukrainian army were to actually face the Russian army, the latter would quickly win. And so logically, if the Donbass war was really due to the invasion of the region by the Russian army, the Ukrainian army should have been totally exterminated long ago, and the war would have been over in a few weeks at most. QED (quod erat demonstrandum)

Strana’s source does not stop there and goes on to debunk the current Ukrainian propaganda that it is the DPR and LPR, or even Russia itself, that is preparing an offensive against Ukraine, saying that this is unlikely. The source explains that the DPR and LPR People’s Militias are too small for an offensive, and that in order to support such an action, Russia would have to send troops to double their numbers, i.e. 20 to 30,000, which would be anything but discreet.

Strana therefore concludes that the only option for a full-scale resumption of hostilities in the Donbass would be an offensive led by the Ukrainian army. An offensive that would not be aimed at giving Ukraine victory, but at dragging Russia into the war, forcing it to intervene openly so that it would (finally) become a party to the conflict, which would justify sanctions strong enough to stop the construction of Nord Stream 2. This is the scenario I have favoured for some time.

Having failed through diplomacy and arm-twisting to force Germany to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, it is quite possible that Washington will force Zelensky to launch an offensive in the Donbass to gain leverage with Berlin and force Angela Merkel to stop the whole project a few months before the end of the construction.

And for this, the upcoming Bellingcat film on the case of the 33 Russians arrested in Belarus, which could “reveal” the identity of the mole in the Ukrainian President’s entourage who screwed up the operation, is a very good way to put pressure on Zelensky (who has no desire to launch an offensive that is doomed to failure, as he would bear the responsibility).

Its publication date, initially scheduled for 15 March (the famous date mentioned by Dmitry Gordon), has been pushed back to April. It seems that Zelensky has given enough guarantees about his obedience to the (warlike) orders coming from Washington and London to avoid another major scandal. At least for the time being…

Christelle Néant

https://www.donbass-insider.com/2021/03/16/if-russia-intervenes-the-ukrainian-army-will-have-to-abandon-its-offensive-in-the-donbass/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

auslander wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

franco wrote:
Noticed the old warrior joined us on site for a look see yesterday but no comment from the local perspective.

Feel for him and his family. Must be worrying times.

We are fine, no threat to us in our little village by the sea. Our close ones serving up there are good. Everything else is OpSec. What will be will be.

Good to hear

GarryB wrote:Sounds like drones are going to be the method of attack, or that could just be subterfuge...

From other reports it looks like the Qatari C-17 have now done at least 6 Turkey/Kiev flights. Unknown what the TAF have done.

You can't step back: why bravado in Donbass can end in tears for Kiev

Against the background of rumors about an impending provocation on the contact line in Donbass, a number of foreign experts expressed confidence that the Ukrainian Armed Forces group, concentrated in the “ATO zone”, would be able to “adequately respond” to attempts to exacerbate the situation. This answer will consist in a lightning strike of the mechanized and tank units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the positions of the DPR and LPR militias.

It allegedly will lead to a breakthrough of the front and further entry of the advancing units into the districts of Donetsk and simultaneous attacks on the flank of the militia along the state border. This is necessary to cut off the armed forces of the DPR and LPR from Russia and block, as experts say, the supply of militias from the territory of the Russian Federation. It is noted that the success of the designated actions will be largely due to reconnaissance and strike unmanned aircraft, which was so well advertised during the autumn armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

However, while praising the forthcoming grandiose success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the same experts make a small, completely insignificant reservation. If the Russian army intervenes for Donbass, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to stop the offensive and return to their original positions. This will be done, as experts believe, in order not to repeat the mistakes of the summer of 2014 and winter of 2015, when a significant part of the Ukrainian troops and volunteer battalions were defeated in the brilliantly organized Ilovaisk and Debaltsevsky "cauldrons" by the militias.

I even remember how, in early February 2015, some foreign experts drew maps of a certain Gorlovka "cauldron". In their opinion, mythical “Putin's troops” should have got there and paid for Ilovaisk. Everything turned out then sadly, and Ukraine, realizing the depth of defeat in the really held Debaltseve "cauldron", was forced to sit down at the negotiating table and outline the ways of a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Donbass in the "Minsk format".
Kiev delirious

Today it is already obvious that the blood of the military that was shed at that time has been completely forgotten by the current leadership of Ukraine, and the horrors of those days, which eventually led to the signing of the Minsk agreements, remain in oblivion. The new Kiev authorities are ready to go to a military solution to the conflict. At the same time, of course, they are doing everything in their power to show Russia their readiness for an interstate conflict, beneficial to anyone, but not Ukraine. Where is the logic of such an aspiration, I cannot say.

But, answering foreign experts who today draw beautiful red arrows (yes, in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, their actions are also indicated in red, as in Russian military documents) strikes against the positions of the militia, I can offer my own version of the development of events. Its fantastic nature lies not in its execution itself, but in the fact that the Russian leadership sees the consequences much more deeply and realizes the significance of the military clash with Ukraine. I am sure it will find a solution in a plane that is not currently in the field of view of the foreign press and will not lead to human casualties.

Suppose that the provocations of the neighboring side crossed all conceivable borders, and the Russian leadership made a decision to protect the Russian-speaking population of Donbass from physical destruction. I repeat: such a scenario is exclusively a figment of my imagination and in reality its implementation is unlikely, which, however, does not completely exclude it - the adjacent side is afraid of this.

Possible scenario

So, taking into account the forces and means at the disposal of the parties, I can assume that the response actions will spread beyond the Donbass, and will not have a regional (operational), but a broader (strategic) character.

The available forces of the militia will be quite enough for the advancing units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to get bogged down in heavy battles to "take out" the defense. Although, of course, success will be indicated in a number of places, and to develop this success, mechanized units trained to conduct combat in urban areas can be introduced. The outskirts of Donetsk can be captured within the first hours after the start of the offensive. The breakthrough will be preceded by artillery preparation by the forces of artillery brigades pulled here, receiving instructions from unmanned aerial reconnaissance means.

In some areas, airmobile units can be used on helicopters - especially where, according to intelligence data, the militia will not have air defense systems available. Or if they are previously suppressed by the Turkish "Bayraktar" recently adopted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which have proven themselves in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Some of the targets important from the point of view of organizing defense will be destroyed by Tochka-U missiles - the Armed Forces of Ukraine have one appropriate unit. Perhaps the 19th Missile Brigade will strike at civilian infrastructure - quite likely given the belligerent rhetoric of the Ukrainian leadership.

I can assume that the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will end there. Then a catastrophe will begin: and not only for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but for the entire statehood of the aggressor country.

Beginning of the End

In the very first hours of the conflict by means of electronic warfare, all activities of unmanned aviation in Ukraine will be turned off. And not only unmanned aircraft, but all channels of combat control without exception. This will lead to the blinding of the aggressor and the loss of his control over the troops. The headquarters will lose the ability to direct the actions of the advancing forces and will no longer receive reports from them. As you know, even a short-term violation of command and control at critical moments of a battle often becomes the cause of an unsuccessful outcome and even defeat. And the opposing forces, no doubt, will take advantage of this opportunity.

I’m even sure that on the first day in this hypothetical situation, the “opposing side” will not use ground forces. What for? During this period, the infantry and tanks will not be needed. To use them, you will need to prepare the soil. Therefore, first of all, army missile brigades (and there are several of them in this direction) will be put into action, each of which has 12 Iskander-M missile launchers. Was it in vain that they were created, formed, taught, given practice on distant "unfamiliar training grounds"?

There is a Caspian flotilla nearby, which has four "caliber carriers", which will also not mind taking part in a retaliatory strike. I am already silent about the Black Sea Fleet and long-range aviation, whose cruise missiles on the first day will consistently and inevitably destroy enemy air defense systems, communication centers and command posts, including those located at a sufficient distance from the line of contact. There is not even a shadow of doubt that targets for cruise missiles will not be revealed by means of radio and space reconnaissance, which constantly monitors the situation in the adjacent territory and controls the situation in real time. It is clear that before the suppression of command posts and other important targets, they will be additionally reconnoitered by drones. The air defense systems available to the Armed Forces are unable to shoot them down for purely technical reasons.

After the missile strike and the electronic "shutdown" of the air defense, bomber aircraft will be used. By the end of the first day of “probable aggression,” the firebombers, well-trained on “unfamiliar landfills,” will do about the same to the columns of the advancing troops that they did in 2015 with the long columns of fuel tankers with which the militants were taking the stolen oil out of Syria. In principle, after this, the decapitated and blinded grouping of the aggressor's troops can be left to be slowly but surely torn apart by the militia, and they themselves can do a more important matter.

Failure of the APU

The second day of the hypothetical battle will be marked by the crossing of the state border line by battalion-tactical groups in about three main operational directions: along the lines of Klintsy - Kiev, Belgorod - Poltava, followed by movement to Nikolaev, as well as Valuiki - Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye with access to Odessa and further - to Ishmael. Along the corridors with the suppressed forces of the brigades and air defense army aviation, tactical assault forces will be landed on strategically important crossings and road junctions. As the main forces approach, the airborne assault units will be transferred to the following objects. Due to the absence of full-fledged aviation in Ukraine and complete air supremacy on the part of the counter-attacking troops, the success of the tactical landing will be more than guaranteed.

It can be assumed that the strike of the first echelon will be focused on maximum advancement deep into the adjacent territory, and the presence of ground attack and army aviation in the sky will ensure unhindered advancement to a depth corresponding to the assigned tasks. It should be understood that, unlike the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the army, which is likely to support the Donbass, will have a second echelon behind its first advancing echelon, formed from battalion-tactical groups of a tank army. It will develop and consolidate the success of the conditional "Yelninskaya" and "Vislenskaya" motorized rifle divisions.

According to the most conservative estimates, the first echelon in the operational direction will reach the designated target by the end of the first day. On the other two, the forward subunits will have reached the target lines by the end of the third day. It should be understood that the Armed Forces will be deprived of the possibility of operational maneuver with their reserves, because the firebombers will "nightmare" the rear and hinder any movement.

The help of the North Atlantic Alliance, on which the patriots of Ukraine rely so strongly, will not come. Because everything will be like in the song of Boris Grebenshchikov: "There are only two of us left, you and me ...". And not even because they are afraid of the nuclear arsenal of the counter-attacking side, but because they do not have the strength for this. The military group must be created, withdrawn to the areas of combat use, provided with all kinds of allowances ... And history will not let them have time for this.
The path to diplomacy

As a result, no one will have time to turn around, as entire areas of Nezalezhnaya will be under the influence of the North wind. What's next? And then - negotiations. The results of a conditional strategic offensive operation will bring good negotiating positions. For example: we are withdrawing troops from Kiev, and you acknowledge the rejection of the Black Sea and adjacent areas. They are all the same, if you dig into the history, not yours. And you got it completely by accident, literally due to a real misunderstanding, which, as it turns out, can be easily corrected.

Of course, I can continue to develop this topic with stories about how to quickly and efficiently siege partners in political dialogue who are trying to solve their territorial problems at a difficult moment for Russia. But that will be another story.

And as a result of the completely fictitious situation described, a neighboring state can quickly, mediocre and permanently lose its statehood. After all, Romania and Poland, taking this opportunity, will instantly bring in troops from their side. This will be done on exactly the same grounds: to protect the fraternal people. And then what will be left?

This is probably why sober-minded heads understand that starting a war, meaning the possible involvement of the Russian Armed Forces in it from the east, and then Romania and Poland from the west, can lead not only to military defeat, but also to the end of the existence of Ukraine as a state. ... And most of all, the military does not want the start of the war, who are not at all attracted by the inglorious death for the state, which in fact does not exist anymore. I remind you that everything stated in this article is a figment of the author's imagination and nothing more.

Author: Alexey Sukonkin

https://wt7icahaihecphj5z6n3ahlk4y--riafan-ru.translate.goog/1405764-nastupat-nelzya-otstupat-pochemu-bravada-v-donbasse-mozhet-plachevno-zakonchitsya-dlya-kieva?utm_source=warfiles.ru

Still pumping gas. Delivering coal and electricity I expect, got to get those transit charges back!

Geo_monitor
@colonelhomsi
· 6m
as of April 1, russia stops supplying oil products to ukraine..

Put here as an update as they are in a hurry.

More pictures in Ukraine ground forces thread. https://www.russiadefence.net/t2587p175-ukrainian-ground-forces#317335


Sukhoi Su-57 Felon
Flag of Russia
Flag of India
@I30mki
·
10h
Tank units of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine in #Donbass are urgently completing the T-72AMT and T-64BV.

In March of this year, repair enterprises of Ukraine delivered 25 tanks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. So, at the beginning of the month, 6 T-72AMTs were transferred to Kiev.

Unfortunately there is no cure for stupid

franco wrote:Unfortunately there is no cure for stupid

Or word diarrhea