It is a ANKA-S worth 30 million $ piece. It has a weight of 1500kg max and can stay up for 24h which means a pretty nice ebgine that can help develop russian UAV.
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Syrian War: News #21
Isos- Posts : 11605
Points : 11573
Join date : 2015-11-06
- Post n°101
Re: Syrian War: News #21
It's almost clean and not destroyed. Very nice for russian engineers that will analyse the engine, communication, data links (probably link 16).
It is a ANKA-S worth 30 million $ piece. It has a weight of 1500kg max and can stay up for 24h which means a pretty nice ebgine that can help develop russian UAV.
It is a ANKA-S worth 30 million $ piece. It has a weight of 1500kg max and can stay up for 24h which means a pretty nice ebgine that can help develop russian UAV.
Vann7- Posts : 5385
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Join date : 2012-05-16
- Post n°102
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Isos wrote:It's almost clean and not destroyed. Very nice for russian engineers that will analyse the engine, communication, data links (probably link 16).
It is a ANKA-S worth 30 million $ piece. It has a weight of 1500kg max and can stay up for 24h which means a pretty nice ebgine that can help develop russian UAV.
correct.. big win for Russian military..
withing a few weeks or months ,they will figure out ,how to take control away from turkey of their own
drones.. with signal hacking..
in more news..
some major advances in south idlib..and other parts..
but apparently not without loses.. they lost Nayrab to the terrorist.. but apparently ,they
are using the city to grind headchoppers.. to maximize their casualties.. capture it.. retreat , then russian
and syrian airforce bomb it to help and wipe them.. and repeat.. capture it , tactical retreat ,then...
if this is the case.. then it is a tactic and not a defeat.. they killing hundreds of terrorist in nayrab.. the number is on 500+ terrorist lost.. capturing it. and syrian army casualties in the 2 digits.. very low.. in the dozens.. in that city. regardless of the battles in Nayrab.. i was promoting already promoting similar tactics since Russia
was fighting to recapture palmyra.. wipe the terrorist.. completely.. mock in the media their defeat.. every day..
lure them to attack in mass again.. and then tactical retreat , and when they capture the city ,bomb the entire place.. and wipe them all again.. if it is done right..or in complete perfection , you can literary wipe huge armies that way and with very few loses in your side or zero.
(killing terrorist count) > is way more important than (territory count..) , once all terrorist wiped.. they will have
no one to continue fighting.. and territory captured without a fight..
one of the last maps..
in another note..
i don't think Russia and Turkey will ever have good relations ,as long Erdogan and his muslim brotherhood
party is in power.. He was only trying to trick Russia ,with empty promises of cooperation.. in sochi agreements.. but he never did anything they promised to do.. demilitarize idlib , separate terrorist alqaeda
from his army and reopen the m4 and m5 zones.. the goal of erdogan was to use their invasion on syria ,
to sink and partition syria .turn it into a failed state..,, and after capturing idlib continue advancing on aleppo and all the north of syria.. with the help of NATO and Alqaeda..
interesting pictures that show what kind of relation
Erdogan have with the alqaeda linked white helmets..
As you can see , turkey will never be a real friend of Russia ,with erdogan in power..
Putin did his best.. to convince Erdogan away of his support of terrorism.. but didn't worked.
the only thing muslim fanatics like Eerdogan understand and respect is force.. dialogue with them is futile.
The evolution of US military .
Vann7- Posts : 5385
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Join date : 2012-05-16
- Post n°103
Re: Syrian War: News #21
The most southern part of idlib is in free fall...
most Terrorist forces seems focused in Sarmin and Nayrab still there is infighting there.. SAA seeking to recapture it.. their goal is obvious ,secure Nayrab and from there move to Saraqeb which connects aleppo with damascus.. and cut the m5 highway.. if the southern front advance.. they can reach the m4 highway and attack the terrorist from behind in nayrab and re-capture the city. Nayrab and Sarmin is where the biggest battles
happening.. so to look what happens there will help understand how strong or not are the terrorist forces there with turkey army artillery support.. and how long it will take syria to liberate idlib.. if the terrorist manage to fully control nayrab and then control saraqeb.. then the capture of idlib will take way longer than they wanted it.. still SAA will have the advantage of close air support.. which will make extremely expensive for the terrorist any inch of territory advance.
Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
2h
This is what the Syrian army liberated today, Tuesday, in Idlib
kharbat hasun
athar snshrah
wadi alshuwh
jabal kafurnbil
dar kabira
alqanatir
hazaarin
tal qiratah
qiratah
sahb
queuruh
dayr sunabil
kfurnbil
bisiqla
has
berbu
arniba
sutuh aldiyr
Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
2h
28 villages in 48 hours SAA liberate
most Terrorist forces seems focused in Sarmin and Nayrab still there is infighting there.. SAA seeking to recapture it.. their goal is obvious ,secure Nayrab and from there move to Saraqeb which connects aleppo with damascus.. and cut the m5 highway.. if the southern front advance.. they can reach the m4 highway and attack the terrorist from behind in nayrab and re-capture the city. Nayrab and Sarmin is where the biggest battles
happening.. so to look what happens there will help understand how strong or not are the terrorist forces there with turkey army artillery support.. and how long it will take syria to liberate idlib.. if the terrorist manage to fully control nayrab and then control saraqeb.. then the capture of idlib will take way longer than they wanted it.. still SAA will have the advantage of close air support.. which will make extremely expensive for the terrorist any inch of territory advance.
Last edited by Vann7 on Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:08 am; edited 3 times in total
ultimatewarrior- Posts : 798
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- Post n°104
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Isos wrote:It's almost clean and not destroyed. Very nice for russian engineers that will analyse the engine, communication, data links (probably link 16).
It is a ANKA-S worth 30 million $ piece. It has a weight of 1500kg max and can stay up for 24h which means a pretty nice ebgine that can help develop russian UAV.
Iran has similar drone. Shahed 129. Shahed 129 struck Muslim Brotherhood in 2016 during Aleppo battle and was used against ISIS.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahed_129
Vann7- Posts : 5385
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Join date : 2012-05-16
- Post n°105
Re: Syrian War: News #21
wow.. thats very precise shots from an iranian drone..and the missiles with tv cameras too..
for extra PR points , how embarrasing that iran have better combat drones
in Syria than Russia. Israeli military had to experience nightmares.. with all the major advances of iran hardware..
that they know will be passed to hezbolah too..and hamas.. it will not take long before bezbolah and hamas start getting attack drones.. too..
GarryB- Posts : 40580
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- Post n°106
Re: Syrian War: News #21
It's almost clean and not destroyed. Very nice for russian engineers that will analyse the engine, communication, data links (probably link 16).
They have been working hard on UAVs the last 10 years and probably have better engines at the moment, but there would be lots of things of interests in a modern UAV including comms and even servos and datalinks etc etc.
Even just looking at the structure and determining if current AA gun ammo creates heavy enough fragments to do serious damage... ie are the 30mm cannon fragments sufficient in weight and speed to penetrate and do damage to the skin of the platform.
Perhaps newer heavier fragments would penetrate deeper and do structural damage rather than superficial skin damage...
Isos- Posts : 11605
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Join date : 2015-11-06
- Post n°107
Re: Syrian War: News #21
GarryB wrote:It's almost clean and not destroyed. Very nice for russian engineers that will analyse the engine, communication, data links (probably link 16).
They have been working hard on UAVs the last 10 years and probably have better engines at the moment, but there would be lots of things of interests in a modern UAV including comms and even servos and datalinks etc etc.
Even just looking at the structure and determining if current AA gun ammo creates heavy enough fragments to do serious damage... ie are the 30mm cannon fragments sufficient in weight and speed to penetrate and do damage to the skin of the platform.
Perhaps newer heavier fragments would penetrate deeper and do structural damage rather than superficial skin damage...
Frankly speaking Turkey is ahead of Russia in drone development. Russian counterpart of this drone is in dev while this is the third turkish improvment of Anka.
But it also shows how drone can't replace fighters. This one was destroyed easily just like the US one by iran while it had "state of the art" jammers.
I guess more su-25 and mig 25 for reco should be build.
nomadski- Posts : 3079
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- Post n°108
Re: Syrian War: News #21
@ ISOS
Agree. The reason Iran built and advanced so many UAV, was not because they are very good weapon platforms. The reason was lack of ability to make jet engines and following modern "successes" of American military in fighting groups, that did not even possess AAA, let alone any SAM system. As soon as you get into facing an enemy with even slightest air defences, then UAV shows weakness. If Rats get these Turk SAM, then Russia need manned fighters to manouver away from SAM or deploy countermeasures. But if not enough fighters available, then artillery and kamikaze drones can fill the gap.
Vann7- Posts : 5385
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- Post n°109
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Isos wrote:
But it also shows how drone can't replace fighters. This one was destroyed easily just like the US one by iran while it had "state of the art" jammers.
I guess more su-25 and mig 25 for reco should be build.
but but....
Drones were not designed to replace fighters at all... they can operate
in combination with normal combat planes.. traditional drones role is not to penetrate enemy air defenses..
their role ,is their advantage.. that they can operate in the air for 24 hours up to 3 days.. without refueling...
and they are not noisy and their signature smaller on radars.., and can spy much better that noisy combat
planes can do.. The problems with manned combat planes.. whether is american or russians or any other ,is that they totally alert terrorist of their presence.. so they hide.. to not be seen..
with attack drones is different.. they are very very silent.. and can be difficult to spot in the air at night and can catch the terrorist or adversaries of a nation in the perfect time in the perfect moment.. This is the major efficiency problem Russia face.. whenever their super noisy sukhois shows... all terrorist hide inside buildings..
if they are near.. so most terrorist escape.. also radars in the zone track from turkey and cyprus track every time Russian airforce take off and land.. so based on that information ,they can give an order to their terrorist of when to start a major offensive.. with drones ,they can hide at long distances from other radars..and they can monitor for days a house , or an enemy movements without be spotted.. this is how Americans catched the iranian general. he never saw it.. or listen the plane.. and was ambushed..
drones major role is that they are perfect for ambush , very silent.. and can be more economical to operate ,that sending a true combat plane.. and if the drone falls , the lost in far less.. than a real plane crashing and its pilot killed or captured. Russia however is building stealth drone bombers like Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik to penetrate air defenses and help to hide the signal of planes flying in formation with the drone. so they could be useful for a
surprise first strike in a war.. to target enemy air defenses ,military bases or its leadership by surprise..
So Russia efficiency will be increased 10x fold.. if they had drones... because they can spy and ambush enemy targets for up to 3 days..in air ,in a zone and then fly back.. and then you use manned combat planes for the use of bigger bones and major area damage.. and ground support.. Drones are the most deadly weapon ,against terrorist in syria.. this scare the hell of them.. because drones are very silent and can hide in the air far away of eye sight.. so makes more complicate such drones their major assault operations.
JohninMK- Posts : 15669
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- Post n°110
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Old fashioned terrorist war now underway. This is from a longer article.
NATO armed savages have responded to the recent military victories of the SAA with attempting to spread terror panic among joyful Syrians. On Tuesday 25 February, car bombs were detonated in two areas of Damascus, and a buried landmine was detonated in Aleppo. Three civilians were murdered, two were injured, at least one critically.
Two workers of the New Aleppo Services Department were murdered by a landmine explosion at the al Lairamoun roundabout on the outskirts of Aleppo. Landmines planted by the various factions of al Qaeda continue to plague Syria. To date, the MoU signed by UNMAS in Damascus almost two years ago has gone no further than Director Agnes Marcaillou reporting her meticulous census on landmine deaths and dismemberment at special UN meetings on Syria.
https://www.syrianews.cc/nato-savages-attempt-terror-panic-with-car-bombs-and-landmines/
NATO armed savages have responded to the recent military victories of the SAA with attempting to spread terror panic among joyful Syrians. On Tuesday 25 February, car bombs were detonated in two areas of Damascus, and a buried landmine was detonated in Aleppo. Three civilians were murdered, two were injured, at least one critically.
Two workers of the New Aleppo Services Department were murdered by a landmine explosion at the al Lairamoun roundabout on the outskirts of Aleppo. Landmines planted by the various factions of al Qaeda continue to plague Syria. To date, the MoU signed by UNMAS in Damascus almost two years ago has gone no further than Director Agnes Marcaillou reporting her meticulous census on landmine deaths and dismemberment at special UN meetings on Syria.
https://www.syrianews.cc/nato-savages-attempt-terror-panic-with-car-bombs-and-landmines/
JohninMK- Posts : 15669
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- Post n°111
Re: Syrian War: News #21
BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:20 A.M.) – The Turkish military made a major gamble this week when they backed another big offensive in the eastern countryside of the Idlib Governorate.
Led by Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and the National Liberation Forces (NLF), the militants concentrated most of their troops at the Nayrab axis in eastern Idlib, as they attempted to advance towards the key city of Saraqib.
While achieving some success at the east Idlib axis, the militants left the southern flank of the strategic Jabal Al-Zawiya region completely exposed to a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) attack on Tuesday.
As a result, the Syrian Arab Army’s 25th Special Mission Forces Division (formerly Tiger Forces) were able to take control of large parts of the Jabal Al-Zawiya region, including the towns of Kafr Nabl and Hass.
Making matters worse for the militants, the Syrian Arab Army appears to be making a large-scale push north towards the Aleppo-Latakia Highway (M-4) from their positions at the southern slope of Jabal Al-Zawiya.
Should the Syrian Army succeed in reaching the Idlib part of the Aleppo-Latakia Highway, the militant offensive in east Idlib will matter very little, as the latter will have lost the entire Jabal Al-Zawiya region.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-backed-idlib-offensive-backfires-as-syrian-army-seizes-large-part-of-jabal-al-zawiya/
Led by Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and the National Liberation Forces (NLF), the militants concentrated most of their troops at the Nayrab axis in eastern Idlib, as they attempted to advance towards the key city of Saraqib.
While achieving some success at the east Idlib axis, the militants left the southern flank of the strategic Jabal Al-Zawiya region completely exposed to a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) attack on Tuesday.
As a result, the Syrian Arab Army’s 25th Special Mission Forces Division (formerly Tiger Forces) were able to take control of large parts of the Jabal Al-Zawiya region, including the towns of Kafr Nabl and Hass.
Making matters worse for the militants, the Syrian Arab Army appears to be making a large-scale push north towards the Aleppo-Latakia Highway (M-4) from their positions at the southern slope of Jabal Al-Zawiya.
Should the Syrian Army succeed in reaching the Idlib part of the Aleppo-Latakia Highway, the militant offensive in east Idlib will matter very little, as the latter will have lost the entire Jabal Al-Zawiya region.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-backed-idlib-offensive-backfires-as-syrian-army-seizes-large-part-of-jabal-al-zawiya/
d_taddei2- Posts : 3029
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- Post n°112
Re: Syrian War: News #21
SeigSoloyvov wrote:Isos wrote:Again WRONG, Closing the straight is not an act of war. Read the dam convention before you parrot facts from this fourm.
You don't really need an act of war to start a war ...
Took me five minutes to find this information, not sure why people on this forum like to ignore facts.
Article 21.
Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.
Vessels which have passed through the Straits before Turkey has made use of the powers conferred upon her by the preceding paragraph, and which thus find themselves separated from their bases, may return thereto. It is, however, understood that Turkey may deny this right to vessels of war belonging to the State whose attitude has given rise to the application of the present Article.
Should the Turkish Government make use of the powers conferred by the first paragraph of the present Article, a notification to that effect shall be addressed to the High Contracting Parties and to the Secretary-General of the League of Nations.
If the Council of the League of Nations decide by a majority of two-thirds that the measures thus taken by Turkey are not justified, and if such should also be the opinion of the majority of the High Contracting Parties signatories to the present Convention, the Turkish Government undertakes to discontinue the measures in question as also any measures which may have been taken under Article 6 of the present Convention.
Edit: Your troops getting bombed could easily be used has a context for "threatened with imminent danger of war"
Not when you're troops have invaded another country and aiding terrorists and attacking government troops from the country you have invaded. I think Syria on the other hand has the right to declare war not Turkey. If Turkey wanted to remove the threat of imminent danger they should roll back across into their own country and stop funding terrorists.
miketheterrible- Posts : 7383
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- Post n°113
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Isos wrote:GarryB wrote:It's almost clean and not destroyed. Very nice for russian engineers that will analyse the engine, communication, data links (probably link 16).
They have been working hard on UAVs the last 10 years and probably have better engines at the moment, but there would be lots of things of interests in a modern UAV including comms and even servos and datalinks etc etc.
Even just looking at the structure and determining if current AA gun ammo creates heavy enough fragments to do serious damage... ie are the 30mm cannon fragments sufficient in weight and speed to penetrate and do damage to the skin of the platform.
Perhaps newer heavier fragments would penetrate deeper and do structural damage rather than superficial skin damage...
Frankly speaking Turkey is ahead of Russia in drone development. Russian counterpart of this drone is in dev while this is the third turkish improvment of Anka.
But it also shows how drone can't replace fighters. This one was destroyed easily just like the US one by iran while it had "state of the art" jammers.
I guess more su-25 and mig 25 for reco should be build.
I never understood people who thought Drones were to replace fighters. They never been that very capable. Hacking them proved to be easy for Iran when they hacked the RQ-170. Russia already signed a contract for the Orion UAV's so there is not much to learn from these drones other than to pick up key info on what NATO uses. Other than that, nothing else.
JohninMK- Posts : 15669
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- Post n°114
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Just like helicopters, drones work best against targets that have little or no air defenses, like the Turks and terrorists in Syria.
ultimatewarrior- Posts : 798
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- Post n°115
Re: Syrian War: News #21
JohninMK wrote:Just like helicopters, drones work best against targets that have little or no air defenses, like the Turks and terrorists in Syria.
Shooting down drone = declaration of war. Then Turkish AD units become legit targets.
magnumcromagnon- Posts : 8138
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- Post n°116
Re: Syrian War: News #21
LMAO! Turks ahead of Russians in drones? How nonsensical. The USSR developed a hypersonic gliding drone in Buran which it's relevant technology was used to develop Topol-M/Yars-M and Avantegard's warheads. If we look at AshM's they had swarming wolf pack attacking missiles since the 1970's. Let's not even talk about cruise missiles. Turks aren't even in the same galaxy as far as drone development goes!Isos wrote:GarryB wrote:It's almost clean and not destroyed. Very nice for russian engineers that will analyse the engine, communication, data links (probably link 16).
They have been working hard on UAVs the last 10 years and probably have better engines at the moment, but there would be lots of things of interests in a modern UAV including comms and even servos and datalinks etc etc.
Even just looking at the structure and determining if current AA gun ammo creates heavy enough fragments to do serious damage... ie are the 30mm cannon fragments sufficient in weight and speed to penetrate and do damage to the skin of the platform.
Perhaps newer heavier fragments would penetrate deeper and do structural damage rather than superficial skin damage...
Frankly speaking Turkey is ahead of Russia in drone development. Russian counterpart of this drone is in dev while this is the third turkish improvment of Anka.
But it also shows how drone can't replace fighters. This one was destroyed easily just like the US one by iran while it had "state of the art" jammers.
I guess more su-25 and mig 25 for reco should be build.
miketheterrible- Posts : 7383
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Join date : 2016-11-06
- Post n°117
Re: Syrian War: News #21
magnumcromagnon wrote:LMAO! Turks ahead of Russians in drones? How nonsensical. The USSR developed a hypersonic gliding drone in Buran which it's relevant technology was used to develop Topol-M/Yars-M and Avantegard's warheads. If we look at AshM's they had swarming wolf pack attacking missiles since the 1970's. Let's not even talk about cruise missiles. Turks aren't even in the same galaxy as far as drone development goes!Isos wrote:GarryB wrote:It's almost clean and not destroyed. Very nice for russian engineers that will analyse the engine, communication, data links (probably link 16).
They have been working hard on UAVs the last 10 years and probably have better engines at the moment, but there would be lots of things of interests in a modern UAV including comms and even servos and datalinks etc etc.
Even just looking at the structure and determining if current AA gun ammo creates heavy enough fragments to do serious damage... ie are the 30mm cannon fragments sufficient in weight and speed to penetrate and do damage to the skin of the platform.
Perhaps newer heavier fragments would penetrate deeper and do structural damage rather than superficial skin damage...
Frankly speaking Turkey is ahead of Russia in drone development. Russian counterpart of this drone is in dev while this is the third turkish improvment of Anka.
But it also shows how drone can't replace fighters. This one was destroyed easily just like the US one by iran while it had "state of the art" jammers.
I guess more su-25 and mig 25 for reco should be build.
I think he is referring to these long range, slow ass loitering drones more so that smart guided systems. The first requires a rather efficient small engine to handle it and Russia relied on such engines from third countries since even soviet times (well, in other republics of the USSR). Only now they have developed such engines. When it comes to jet based engines, used on cruise missiles and rocket engines then yes, Turkey doesnt come close.
Isos- Posts : 11605
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- Post n°118
Re: Syrian War: News #21
It's not a secret russia bought israeli drone to catch up. They still have nothing bigger and better than orlan 10 which is like a toy compared to bigger MALE drones.
Isos- Posts : 11605
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- Post n°119
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Syrian_MC
@Syrian_MC
·
2h
About an hour ago the Syrain AD units in south #Idlib downed unidentified target over Al Zawyeh mountain
Details to follow
Syrian_MC
@Syrian_MC
·
37 min
Another AD launch took place moments ago
@Syrian_MC
·
2h
About an hour ago the Syrain AD units in south #Idlib downed unidentified target over Al Zawyeh mountain
Details to follow
Syrian_MC
@Syrian_MC
·
37 min
Another AD launch took place moments ago
Isos- Posts : 11605
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- Post n°120
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Happened 1h ago. Prrobably su-34 bombing the area right now.
Levent Kemal
@leventkemaI
·
1h
On the Saraqib front, the Assad regime's warplane was targeted with a manpad. But the warplane managed to escape
Levent Kemal
@leventkemaI
·
1h
On the Saraqib front, the Assad regime's warplane was targeted with a manpad. But the warplane managed to escape
Arrow- Posts : 3507
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- Post n°121
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Islamists are already near Sarakib. Putin again used a deal from Turkey
JohninMK- Posts : 15669
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- Post n°122
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Within Syria
@WithinSyriaBlog
·
57m
The SAA launched its attack from southern Idlib beleving that HTS\NFL will fight for these areas. This didn't happen, HTS\NFL made a choice to sacrifice entier soutehrn Idlib to take over Saraqib, this took the army by surpise and they will most likely success in taking it.
@WithinSyriaBlog
·
57m
The SAA launched its attack from southern Idlib beleving that HTS\NFL will fight for these areas. This didn't happen, HTS\NFL made a choice to sacrifice entier soutehrn Idlib to take over Saraqib, this took the army by surpise and they will most likely success in taking it.
Hole- Posts : 11132
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- Post n°123
Re: Syrian War: News #21
Yeah, of course. Where ist the turkish S-70?
Drones of this class are only useful if you are an occupaying force fighting against the whole population, see Iraq, Afghanistan, Plaestine and so on. In Russia these drones, like Orion, are just a niche product. They fill a few special roles, nothing more. The small russian recon drones, like Orlan-10, but also Korsar and Katran, are useful above the front line, even if the enemy has good air defence systems, they can be used to recon targets and guide fire by artillery and fighter jets/helicopters. And the newer drones can use guided weapons, too.
SeigSoloyvov- Posts : 3925
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- Post n°124
Re: Syrian War: News #21
JohninMK wrote:Within Syria
@WithinSyriaBlog
·
57m
The SAA launched its attack from southern Idlib beleving that HTS\NFL will fight for these areas. This didn't happen, HTS\NFL made a choice to sacrifice entier soutehrn Idlib to take over Saraqib, this took the army by surpise and they will most likely success in taking it.
Yeah SAA has lost tons of ground near Sara, I don't think the rebels will be able to take the city but they may come very very close.
Long as they keep control of Sara it's fine the land they lose isn't big and can easily be retaken in a single day
Hole- Posts : 11132
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- Post n°125
Re: Syrian War: News #21
They seem to concentrate nearly all their forces to this town. Let them. After liberating the whole area south of the M4 Saraqib will be encircled. Then the moderate unicorns will either give up or die.