Syrian War: News #21

franco wrote:You guys don't like his crap then ignore him... censorship on the other hand leads down a slippery slope. Just saying.

IMO the Russians have been playing a smart game in this quagmire...this situation does however appear to have been a misread by the Russians and a war with Turkey does nothing good for Russia.  

also ignoring them creates a slippery slope were the quality of the site degrades to total garbage. And drastic inflow of fake news along with it.

Comments on the ill fated Russian ceasefire

Moon of Alabama
@MoonofA
·
37m
Putin made a political move that had militarily unforeseen consequence.
A misunderstanding of Erdogan's motives is the root cause.

Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
· 39m
A unilateral Russian ceasefire was a severe mistake because Russia neither anticipated the Turkish reaction nor did it allowed enough time for the Syrian Army and its allies to equip themselves with air defence systems.


But it might have a silver lining if, as I mentioned a couple of days ago, the prospect of rolling the SAA back sucked hundreds of joyful headchoppers into what is going, by the look of it, to be the killing fields west of Saraqib, like it was a couple of weeks ago as it now seems that the SAA are sending more reinforcements to get the job done and the artillery assisting Turkish drones are gone. They look to have already liberated the eastern part of the city but, if they operate as before, they will take advantage of the momentum they have as morale will have been crushed from the highs of success to the lows of retreating under fire.

In addition, if any mercy was shown last time, by for example allowing terrorists/TA to flee ahead of the advance, as sure as eggs is eggs, following the various headchopper snuff videos they stupidly uploaded it ain't happening again. Whilst the SAA will also have little compunction in hitting the Turkish guns that did so much damage and the Turkish OP must be on thin ice too.

franco wrote:Variety is the spice of life amigo

Dunno why I laughed but thanks!

franco wrote:Variety is the spice of life amigo

It certainly is but UW just clutters up the thread. I've just stopped reading most of the posts, the problem being that in among the juvenile dross there is the occasional gem.

Russia needs to start shooting down those drone and it will stop. Erdogan is too afraid to die from a kalibr missile that turkish army can't deal with, that he won't even think about escalating with russians.

There was even attacks 40km away from Hmeimim endangering russia who has lot of people around there for protection of the air base.

IMO right now the russian soldiers must be very angry against Putin. And still IMO Putin wants to meet Erdogan and tell him to stop so that he is the one whobstops turkish army and not russian army. That's rather stupid and he should have let russian army forbid turkish presence since the begining. He becomes softer as the time pass.

Azi wrote:
There must be some kind of agreement or tolerance from SAA, Russia and Iran towards Turkey.  SAA is not hitting the outposts deep inside SAA territory and is not on the way to take turkish soldiers as hostage...but this would be normal. And SAA is not striking any turkish positions. SAA is hit hard from publicity point, because a drone strike creates more pr, than a normal attack. And what makes me wonder...Turkey is not attacking with tanks, only artillery and drone strikes. It's a bit treacherous against SAA soldiers now dying, but maybe in the long term genius, because Turkey is now unmasked. Something weird is going on in Idlib, that is sure! During daytime I was convinced SAA will lost in a few weeks Damaskus, but now it could be Turkeys Vietnam, if things are going well. HTS and Turkish Militia lost complete the momentum of war!

What gets on my nerves are the turkish fanboys climbing from one orgasm to another! This nationalism is similar to nationalism in WW1. So to a low percentage the conflict is not controlable anymore or will break ot later again. Some hits to Turkish Army would be nice, to ground turkish fanboys.

quote " There must be some kind of agreement or tolerance from SAA, Russia and Iran towards Turkey. "...

Is not an agreement..
Is called Rules of engagement... every nation have them...and they are designed to maximize your performance and effectiveness.. in comparison with the alternative that is a full scale war with no rules...if syria started in 2015 to declare war on turkey ,war on israel and war on jordan and war on US and on France and on UK , war against anyone who invaded their air space ,then they will have lost a very brutal defeat...
Russia was at a huge major disadvantage in 2015 ,they committed a fatal mistake to allow the second most sensitive territory in all syria idlib to be taken.. the first one is latakia ,because taking it will happen the same that NATO did to Serbia ,got land locked.. and totally dependent on neighbors to trade.. so this is the real reason why turkey wants idlib.. because it will serve as a launch pad for NATO later ,to invade lakia.. idlib is even more important than damascus.. because you can retreat from there , but if latakkia taken.. they will have no other way to get supplies from russia if for example iraq government is replaced for a hostile one to russia..

examples of maximizing efficiency in war...
with rules of engagement... vs the alternative a full scale no rules war.
Fighting a slow war.. allows is easier for Russia and Syria economy.. to handle the fight.. it also provoke
less the enemy ... and don't close the door for diplomacy..    

another example is if Syria start destroying turkey outpost ,lets say wipe all of them in minutes.. which they can
do ,since all those outpost are withing artillery range of syria and russia..and iran.. then that only will help
Erdogan public support.. at home.. something he wants.. and people in turkey will be in outrage demanding war war war and the entire nation will join ,the war ,to defend their honor..

By Syria showing that is not at war with Turkey ,that is only responding aggression ,whenever they attacked..
this don't allow Erdogan to get the support of his opposition .. every descent civilian in turkey with morals.. and there are many.. 40% of turkey population at least oppose Erdogan policies in Syria.. so all this actions of restraint and only responding when turkey attacks them... this significantly helps Syria ,to divide the turkey population public opinion.. and helps Syria to sink the popularity of Erdogan at home..  a president that lose totally the popularity of his people ,is either not supported again in future elections or simply experience a coup..
ask egyptian.. they removed 2 dictators without firing a bullet.. the army joined civilians and removed two presidents. so if erdogan is not careful about public opinion ,he will end sacked by his own generals.. Either
case ,limited response war ,slow war ,keep the door opens for diplomacy..  and this is extremely important.

because in a full scale all out war between Russia ,syria vs turkey  ,it will be astronomical more expensive for both sides..  but several magnitudes more for Turkey... because his entire country ,economic factories ,power grind and military bases will be easy target for russia ,iranian ,syrian missile forces.. And turkey navy will be wiped in the caspian sea.. if erdogan close bosphurus for russia.. egypt will close suez canal to turkey.. and iran will close all trade of turkey with the persian gulF.. aside that Russia can continue hitting turkey important factories for turkey economy and turkey military bases ,day and night non stop ,until they open it... honestly i think russia will not waste much missiles and will use nukes against turkey if their base attacked by them..

This is why Syria and Russia don't bomb Turkey bases unless they attacked.. perhaps.. and why don't target turkey convoys entering in syria unless they go to the combat zone..   aside that the more turkey bases are in syria.. the more targets Russia and syria have to hit for revenge..     better to have your enemies close at gun point.. than far away ,beyond the borders.  so turkey knows if he start a full scale war ,something they don't doing yet...but they seem close.. then all those turkey outpost will be easy targets and 10k thousands of turkey soldiers killed withing one day alone.. also the more soldiers and outpost turkey deploy ,the more expensive is the conflcit for erdogan... So Russia will prefer a slow war . over having to nuke turkey...and get all turkey population behind erdogan later.. and stay in a state of war...for ever with them.. because once a full scale war
happens. the only way to end it.. is removing erdogan and his military by force.. so an invasion on turkey will be need if nukes not used.. Russia can capture istanbul for example and never leave until erdogan abandon idlib..
this are full scale war scenario..  if soviet union did not invaded germany and planted a flag in berlin.. the danger to their nation and hostilities of hitler will have never ended.. and they will only  temporarily retreated and years later return for revenge.. So this is why Russia considers far better a limited war..even if they lose soldiers.. than being forced to nuke turkey or invade them.   look at the ukraine conflict.. this slow war/limited ,war works.. pretty well.. and people wanted russia to invade kiev... which would have been very expensive and only served to get drain their nation budget and lots of casualties with a full invasion.

as a bonus , for prolonging and freezing a war , the longer time pass.. the more disenchanted population will be..
about it.. by prolonging the syrian war.. Russia managed to educate a big part of world opinion against that NATO ,turkey and israel..are aiding terrorism.. and this is now discussion in american political debates.. and in congress.. this will have a very major negative effect in public opinion including american allies ,into supporting the american empire..   Even Poland who hates Russia is dissobeying american sanctions and investing in syria
economy..   So the pentagon knows very well ,that their actions in syria is working against them ,in world opinion ,turning millions of europeans against US imperist war.. so this helps Russia into promoting a new world order ,that is no longer controlled by US.. So Russia constructive and extremely pragmatic behavior in Syria
not only keep doors open for diplomacy ,but also gains the public support of european citizens and even american ones and middle east. .even saudi arabia is in negotiations to re-open their embassy in damascus and help syria economy..  So putin is doing a very difficult  and painful job ,by delaying a war.. but the alternative is
way worse..because once full scale war declared.. only way to end the war is by a cruise missile precision strike on erdogan.. still this don't guarantee that the army will abandon turkey policies.. so Russia will need to use very low shield nuclear weapons in idlib , to stop the war.. for example against stronghold cities of terrorist.. to wipe alqaeda there and to send a very powerful message to Erdogan ,that he can't win in idlib ,because Russia will use all they have to stop him.

Isos wrote:Russia needs to start shooting down those drone and it will stop. Erdogan is too afraid to die from a kalibr missile that turkish army can't deal with, that he won't even think about escalating with russians.

There was even attacks 40km away from Hmeimim endangering russia who has lot of people around there for protection of the air base.

IMO right now the russian soldiers must be very angry against Putin. And still IMO Putin wants to meet Erdogan and tell him to stop so that he is the one whobstops turkish army and not russian army. That's rather stupid and he should have let russian army forbid turkish presence since the begining. He becomes softer as the time pass.

That drone would have been easily monitored by Russian forces there like all other drones.  They knew it wasnt a threat so they didnt bother with it.

Syrian airspace is still under control of Syria, not Russia.

If we go by the recent news as true, then a ton of Turkish drones were dropped anyway. Of Course they are just simple drones and Turkey can replace them even if expensive.

The Ottoman wrote:

Lol one drone doesn't carry enough weapons to knock out that many systems. Clear propaganda.

PLUS going by your own logic, there is no video or proof it happened there-fore it's not real.

miketheterrible wrote:

Isos wrote:Russia needs to start shooting down those drone and it will stop. Erdogan is too afraid to die from a kalibr missile that turkish army can't deal with, that he won't even think about escalating with russians.

There was even attacks 40km away from Hmeimim endangering russia who has lot of people around there for protection of the air base.

IMO right now the russian soldiers must be very angry against Putin. And still IMO Putin wants to meet Erdogan and tell him to stop so that he is the one whobstops turkish army and not russian army. That's rather stupid and he should have let russian army forbid turkish presence since the begining. He becomes softer as the time pass.

That drone would have been easily monitored by Russian forces there like all other drones.  They knew it wasnt a threat so they didnt bother with it.

Syrian airspace is still under control of Syria, not Russia.

If we go by the recent news as true, then a ton of Turkish drones were dropped anyway.  Of Course they are just simple drones and Turkey can replace them even if expensive.

Depends the big weaponized drones take months to replace, Turkey can't spit those out in weeks.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

Isos wrote:Russia needs to start shooting down those drone and it will stop. Erdogan is too afraid to die from a kalibr missile that turkish army can't deal with, that he won't even think about escalating with russians.

There was even attacks 40km away from Hmeimim endangering russia who has lot of people around there for protection of the air base.

IMO right now the russian soldiers must be very angry against Putin. And still IMO Putin wants to meet Erdogan and tell him to stop so that he is the one whobstops turkish army and not russian army. That's rather stupid and he should have let russian army forbid turkish presence since the begining. He becomes softer as the time pass.

That drone would have been easily monitored by Russian forces there like all other drones.  They knew it wasnt a threat so they didnt bother with it.

Syrian airspace is still under control of Syria, not Russia.

If we go by the recent news as true, then a ton of Turkish drones were dropped anyway.  Of Course they are just simple drones and Turkey can replace them even if expensive.

Depends the big weaponized drones take months to replace, Turkey can't spit those out in weeks.

They can't replace those losses. EU put arms embargo on Turkey for invading Rojava. Key component they have to import from EU.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Turkish_Air_Force_bases_and_airfields

Turkey has only 13 air bases and not all have f-16. Also some have only 1 runway.

Russia can crush turkish air force by launching 4 or 5 kh101 or kalibr at each base to destroy the runways making aircraft unable to take off or land. Then in the next hour the sukhois in Hmeimim helped by syrian su24 can be send to destroy the bases even more with bombs. Su-35 will take out the f16 that are in CAP or just let them run out of fuel.

Then tupolevs can finish the bases with carpet bombing destroying all the turkish air force.

They have very weak air defences making the use of kalibr and kh101 very easy.

Once no more air force turkey is dead. It is possible to do that in two days and the kh 101 and kalibr are already ready as they took pictures of them in front of tupolev this week. They need 60-70 of them.

Nato won't have time to react and once turkey is destroyed they won't fight for nothing left to save.

Then the turkish ground forces will be easy targets in

The Ottoman wrote:

No proof or video it happened, clearly lies.

Lying is all the Turks know how to do.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
No proof or video it happened, clearly lies.

Don't loose your time with him. They even claimed destruction of S-300. Fuck they even lied about the pantsir and proved to be liars.

Isos wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
No proof or video it happened, clearly lies.

Don't loose your time with him. They even claimed destruction of S-300. Fuck they even lied about the pantsir and proved to be liars.

I know he is lying, I am just reminding him of his own words. How hypocritical he is.

Peto map update.  Already out of date as it doesn't show the SAA re-entering Saraquib or retalkng Hazarran in the South, but its a fluid situation and things change quickly.

mmm.. this is only getting better by the time.. in terms of confrontation..

Reporting that arrest warrants issued against Turkish soldiers in the 13 observation posts..

besieged Turkish military outlets contain more than 800 Turkish soldiers and officers … will be arrested and presented to the media.
They will negotiate surrendering them live in exchange for a full Turkish withdrawal from Idlib. Paper in the hands of the Syrian army and its allies … could soon be used …Russia can no longer protect the besieged Turkish points, pressure from the Syrian command is fierce.Turkey was told this through Russia.

So those small turkey outpost encircled by tanks and artillery , either surrender and arrested
turkey soldiers or they killed ... and later returned to turkey when Erdogan retreat..
If they do that.. they will need to assault all turkey outpost at same time and jam their communications..
so they can't receive orders from Erdogan ,that will only want to sacrifice them..  Erdogan is capable to tell them
die there for my empire dear sons.. virgins will await you in heaven..  

another interesting news.. is how the disagreement with the erdogan policies is only growing..
RT ,reported that 1 turkey soldier in his own uniform abandoned his post and ,flee to greece ,asking for asylum.. he did not wanted to be part of Erdogan war ..

Looks like either the Turks hit the hanger at Kuweires or they has a random explosion. Sat photos undated. Does the damage look recent to you and where are the helicopter remains claimed?

Aldin
@aldin_ww
·
2h
Noticeable destruction at Kuweires Military Airbase in #Aleppo / One hangar destroyed with parking area completely burned out (could mean that TAF claim of 5 or so helicopters destroyed is true)







LuftwaffeAS
@LuftwaffeAS
·
Feb 28
Too weird to see this newly published over media! One of the two maintenance hangars in Kweres looks totally distructed due to an explosion, note the many airframes of Flamingos scattered around.
Wonder what's the reason!




There is a better copy of the photo here https://twitter.com/LuftwaffeAS/status/1233500590753353729/photo/1 double click it there