Syrian War: News #22

There wont be any take over from Russia of Syrian AD or airspace as a whole. Then it becomes the question of sovereignty and there will be a massive problem for Russia. It is just that Russia is of course consulted before Syria does what they do in terms of using their AD.

Perhaps a solution to Israeli attacks might be Su-30 and Su-35 patrols along the border... they could get some practise at attacking munitions early in their flight path, while also potentially being able to fire some shots at Israeli fighters leaving the area... R-27ET for instance would be good for chasing a retreating target...

Yes could be a response in the air , perhaps at later stage , if they do not stop these stupid attacks . But missiles can bring down plane and kill pilot . Unless warhead is a dud , just to scare away ! And the Zionists keeping the Israeli population hostages to war and tension , to stay in power , would benefit . As would the American  military industrial complex , for selling more guns .

At some stage , there may be no choice of course . But for now , I believe that non-lethal demonstrative attacks , designed to focus the attention of civilian population against war , would be better . Without frightening them too much and creating an existential threat for them , where they have no choice but to go to full scale war . As I said , some acoustic attack , waking them up in the early morning , or their TV being cut , will be far more effective , in stopping these attacks .

Shooting down Israeli planes is an extreme response, but also a natural response... we are not talking about Patrols of fighters flying along the border flying into Israeli airspace and shooting down aircraft they find because they suspect they might be up to no good.

I am talking about attacking the aircraft launching these standoff attacks... if the crew die... well they were launching weapons into Syria that kill people when they are not shot down so I don't have much sympathy for those pilots... the problem is that they are repeat offenders... at least suicide bombers only kill once.

Right now the cost to Israel for these attacks is the expense of operating the aircraft... and it sounds like they have reverted to using F-16s again... plus the cost of the munitions they are using.

Adding the cost of a few planes and possibly the crew might stop them launching so many attacks.

If they play dirty, like using Russian or civilian aircraft to hide behind then that should be punished too.

Non lethal attacks will just be packaged as attacks by the western propaganda machine... something they can claim their attacks are responding to and can therefore escalate attacks in size and volume because they are defending themselves.

They get away with most of their shit by claiming they are defending themselves but if they start losing billions in aircraft.... they wont run out of money but buying new aircraft will damage their economy because the US and the rich jewish lobby in the US will fund most things if it is to help Israel fight off the terrorists... even when it is the terrorists they are supporting.

Maybe the solution is to be more open and say, as long as Israel bombs Syria openly and without permission, Syria will start supplying weapons to enemies of Israel.... you arm what we call terrorists and we will arm what you call terrorists... or we can talk.

".....Non lethal attacks will just be packaged as attacks by the western propaganda machine... something they can claim their attacks are responding to and can therefore escalate attacks in size and volume because they are defending themselves......"

Sure they will try . But the public will not be just watching their TV for news , if it even works at that stage !  They will hear the sound with their own ears and see the smoke with their own eyes and understand the point of attack was demonstrative , since only a landmark was hit , bang on the nose ! A political message . And yes the Israeli military may  respond , in heavy handed way , killing people . But the public will also see this too . You see , all people have an instinctive sense of justice . They will accept more readily , some actions as opposed to others . In the initial stages of a war , it may be advantageous to take this form of action . Similarly I mentioned that , in case of an American attack on Iranian mainland , even with casualties , that a response by Iran , could be a demonstrative attack on landmarks , such as statue of Liberty or the Washington monument , accurately and without casualties . This type of action , does have advantages in the initial stages of a full scale war . In stopping it .


"....I don't have much sympathy for those pilots...... " . I share in your view . But we have to avoid war , that will only benefit the few , who make money out of it , and help themselves into political office . Using a dud warhead SAM , will still force the pilot to abandon mission or to take evasive measures . Without providing a martyr for the Zionists war effort and help make more profit for military industrial complex and still mission is cancelled ! The pilot has to take evasive action, since he can not risk his own life . If they get too cocky and still come close , then shoot one down ! Soon the Israelis will have to chain pilots to the plane , in case they eject .

GarryB wrote:Shooting down Israeli planes is an extreme response, but also a natural response... we are not talking about Patrols of fighters flying along the border flying into Israeli airspace and shooting down aircraft they find because they suspect they might be up to no good.

I am talking about attacking the aircraft launching these standoff attacks... if the crew die... well they were launching weapons into Syria that kill people when they are not shot down so I don't have much sympathy for those pilots... the problem is that they are repeat offenders... at least suicide bombers only kill once.

Right now the cost to Israel for these attacks is the expense of operating the aircraft... and it sounds like they have reverted to using F-16s again... plus the cost of the munitions they are using.

Adding the cost of a few planes and possibly the crew might stop them launching so many attacks.

If they play dirty, like using Russian or civilian aircraft to hide behind then that should be punished too.

Non lethal attacks will just be packaged as attacks  by the western propaganda machine... something they can claim their attacks are responding to and can therefore escalate attacks in size and volume because they are defending themselves.

They get away with most of their shit by claiming they are defending themselves but if they start losing billions in aircraft.... they wont run out of money but buying new aircraft will damage their economy because the US and the rich jewish lobby in the US will fund most things if it is to help Israel fight off the terrorists... even when it is the terrorists they are supporting.

Maybe the solution is to be more open and say, as long as Israel bombs Syria openly and without permission, Syria will start supplying weapons to enemies of Israel.... you arm what we call terrorists and we will arm what you call terrorists... or we can talk.

Situation for Syrian authorities in relation to those stand-off attacks by part of IAF is very difficult under a mere geopolitical point of view.

Organize one or more effcient ambushes on IAF aircraft in transition over Lebanese airspace to carry out theirs usual stand-off attacks is not a particularly difficult task: in general would be sufficient to spread false informations in a part of syrian lines of command and even among several syrian officiers on the field about the positions and the expected movements of the most advanced SAM units available to Syrian Army (so to put Israeli intelligence out of track) while covertely bring some of those SAMs, totally masked and covered, in positions useful to down one or more IAF aircraft over Lebanon activating them suddenly only after informations about attacking F-16/F-15 or F-35 are closing the interception ambush area.

In the past similar ambushes was completed very successfully against IAF, causing enormous aircraft losses, in an environemnt much more favourable to this air force, almost without early warning systems and with SAM effectively fixed or semi-fixed.

The problem is therefore not technical, but instead of geopolitical advantage caused by the stand-off extraterritorial nature of those attacks.

IAF F-16s ,F-15s or F-35s not entering in Syrian airspace are considered peaceful units when operating in international airspace, not differently that an armed Sweden Gripen aircraft or USAF F-15 operating in international airspace intercepting a domestic fighter or surveillance aircraft or an armed domestic Cy-27CM3 or Cy-30CM intercepting an USAF bomber or surveillance aircraft.

When entering in a foreign airspace (willingly or for mistake) International Law establish that only the State the border of which has been violated has the right to respond ,also employing military force, against the transgressor and not any other.

In the event of an attack against a nation from outside its established airspace in peacetime, the military units executing it can be considered hostile only after it has initiated such an attack, at this point the nation could conduct lawfully a military response against the offender.

In peacetime is obvious that is technically very difficult to act efficiently against the aircraft executing stand-off attack because usually the attacking aircraft egress immediately from the area after the delivery of its ordnances; this leave open only a response directly against the offender's territory.

Both those options are out of selection's possibilities for Syrian high command ,above all while still engaged in managing this foreign-fueled civil war against terrorists entities organized and financed from abroad.

For the present situation the most advantageous response still remain to force Israeli military to expend multiple times the financiary resources in comparison with the damages caused and the expenses employed by Syrian operators to neutralize or partially neutralize those attacks.
The remaining are all good and right ideas , but unfortunately not really doable in the near terms.

The Syrians will have to do it . Here they stood up on two feet . That is all they needed .

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/179968/VIDEO-Syrian-army-forces-US-military-convoy-to-retreat

And who did this ? Just be Syria .

https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1400/08/01/2594690/%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%BE%D9%87%D9%BE%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7-%D9%87%D9%85%DA%86%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%BE%D9%88%D8%B4-%D9%85%DB%8C-%DA%AF%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF


And you hear about missile recently fell in Tel Aviv and closed down city ? Who did it ? Must be Syria or friends . So this type of response is possible , already happening and must increase to show force . It is possible , even with fighting terror groups in Syria .

nomadski wrote:
And you hear about missile recently fell in Tel Aviv and closed down city ? Who did it ? Must be Syria or friends . So this type of response is possible , already happening and must increase to show force . It is possible , even with fighting terror groups in Syria .

Hadn't heard about that one but the last time it happened it might have been an S-200 SAM missile running until its fuel expired.

Hadn't heard about that one but the last time it happened it might have been an S-200 SAM missile running until its fuel expired.

Which creates another avenue of operations.... modify S-200 missiles and the next Israeli attack align the flight path with the S-200 with the Israeli jets who launched the weapons but give it inertial guidance instead of a proper radar lock and have it land near something of military value in Israel in a way that looks like it is a rogue missile. Give it an IFF system so it wont go chasing civilian airliners... like that Ukrainian system did on exercise a few years back, but ultimately have it fly to and impact on or near a large ground military target.

It will only be launched in response to Israeli attack so if any innocents are killed then that is the fault and responsibility of the Israeli air force... it is not like Syrians are not at risk to Israeli attacks.... this just adds a tangible consequence of attacking targets in Syria for Israel.

And Sorry Mindstorm... Syria can start worrying about international law when illegal western military forces leave their territory and Israel starts respecting their borders and airspace and returns land stolen from them.

"Turkey Deports 7 Syrian Refugees For “Provocatively Eating Bananas” On Video, Mocking Economic Crisis"


This is a little bit unrelated but pressure is mounting on Erdogan, the Turkish economy and people are not happy.

I think Erdogan will be forced to make a move, the opposition political parties are using this as an issue. The elections in Turkey are in 2023.




https://southfront.org/turkey-deports-7-syrian-refugees-for-provocatively-eating-bananas-on-video-mocking-economic-crisis/

Turkish military and its gun fodder are on the move. In the far west, Lattakia, HTS has replaced the more radical elements.

GEROMAN -- Eyes -
@GeromanAT
·
8h
#Syria
Turkish forces increased presence
SAA also shifted forces to Aleppo N, Al Bab S, and some locations on Idlib S
Russia increased forces (+ SU-30) to Qamishli
HTS pushed Sistani's gang to Afrin
-
Where could Turkey start to strike?
Will SAA counter?

That airport is around 3km away from the turkish border and it has one runway and one parking area. It can be destroyed by artillery in few minutes.

I wouldn't use it to park su-35s.

Isos wrote:That airport is around 3km away from the turkish border and it has one runway and one parking area. It can be destroyed by artillery in few minutes.

I wouldn't use it to park su-35s.

With Russian assets sitting there it would be surprising if the Turks fire a bullet let alone artillery at it.

JohninMK wrote:

Isos wrote:That airport is around 3km away from the turkish border and it has one runway and one parking area. It can be destroyed by artillery in few minutes.

I wouldn't use it to park su-35s.

With Russian assets sitting there it would be surprising if the Turks fire a bullet let alone artillery at it.

Turkish army no but those turkish groups from north syria can.

Even the smallest mortars can reach the airport from the border.

TOR can hit mortar shells in flight, and I suspect artillery could be located nearby to respond to any attack in near real time...

Shells loaded... just waiting for coordinates to deliver them to...

Israelis active this morning with ground to ground missiles.

EDIT

Or maybe not

vanessa beeley
@VanessaBeeley
·
2h
#Israel just attacked air defense base west #Damascus. I was 100 metres from missile landing. Jets overhead. First time #Israel attack daytime & jets appear to be in Syria #Syria airspace. I am ok, dozens of civilians were close to first missile. Not sure if any casualties

Aurora Intel
@AuroraIntel
·
2h
Multiple explosions have been reported around #Damascus.
- Al-Mezzah airbase
- Al-Dimas
- Qudssaya

Appears to be concentrated in the north-west area.

Is something up?

Lukyluke31
@Lukyluke311
·
4h
Replying to
@GeromanAT
What’s going on?




Meanwhile 20 RuAF strikes this morning

As usual, people blame Russia for others attacking Syria.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1454546364520669190

miketheterrible wrote:As usual, people blame Russia for others attacking Syria.  

https://mobile.twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1454546364520669190

Well it is Russia's fault! They stepped in and prevented the evil empire from having their way with Syria. Everything is Russia's fault because they won't surrender and fade into oblivion...geez!

Vanessa Beeley wrote:Israelis active this morning with ground to ground missiles.

EDIT

Or maybe not

vanessa beeley
@VanessaBeeley
·
2h
#Israel just attacked air defense base west #Damascus. I was 100 metres from missile landing. Jets overhead. First time #Israel attack daytime & jets appear to be in Syria #Syria airspace. I am ok, dozens of civilians were close to first missile. Not sure if any casualties

Not even a chance on billions it can be a correct information.

miketheterrible wrote:As usual, people blame Russia for others attacking Syria.  

https://mobile.twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1454546364520669190

Lebanese crew is right next door so they are free to jump in if they are unsatisfied with Russian services

franco wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:As usual, people blame Russia for others attacking Syria.  

https://mobile.twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1454546364520669190

Well it is Russia's fault! They stepped in and prevented the evil empire from having their way with Syria. Everything is Russia's fault because they won't surrender and fade into oblivion...geez!

 

There is this feeling of entitlement from most of these people. They think that since Russia went into Syria to assist, that it is now Russia that controls Syria and makes sure to fight everyone on every corner of the country.

If the damage is so minimal like being proclaimed, then obviously Russia provided Intel to Syrian forces.

Anyways, these monkeys are useless.

I don't take a lot being said of the events in Syria at face value

The attack is not getting clearer. The SAA are claiming that they shot down some of the missiles. The RuAF S-400 up in the hills should have seen them from launch.

Within Syria
@WithinSyriaBlog
·
4h
Israel strike on Damascus today was not a SEAD operation, nor another pinpoint strike ... It was a very complex attack.

ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
It seems this mornings strike on Syria may have been by surface-surface missiles according to the Syrians, if so likely either EXTRA guided artillery rocket or more likely battery of LORA short-range ballistic missiles from Golan Heights/northern Israel (Galilee)

JohninMK wrote:The attack is not getting clearer. The SAA are claiming that they shot down some of the missiles. The RuAF S-400 up in the hills should have seen them from launch.

Within Syria
@WithinSyriaBlog
·
4h
Israel strike on Damascus today was not a SEAD operation, nor another pinpoint strike ... It was a very complex attack.

ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
It seems this mornings strike on Syria may have been by surface-surface missiles according to the Syrians, if so likely either EXTRA guided artillery rocket or more likely battery of LORA short-range ballistic missiles from Golan Heights/northern Israel (Galilee)

Nothing strange happened; as i had aforementioned the informations about the penetration of Israeli aircraft in Syrian airspace was complete bollocks.

Even more it appear that Israel Army this time used exclusively surface to surface missiles -probably a combination of Delilah-GL cruise missiles and LORA ballistic missiles- in the attempt to capitalise transition from a fire position to another of some of the Syrian most advanced SAM vehicles (ground based missiles reduces enormously the early warning time's window for the defender).

This tactic have partially worked ,in facts only few of the most advanced and mobile Syrian Army's air defense vehicles participated in the neutralization of the Israeli surprise attack and consequently an higher percentage of the incoming missiles (in particular ballistic ones) reached its target.

Mindstorm wrote:

JohninMK wrote:The attack is not getting clearer. The SAA are claiming that they shot down some of the missiles. The RuAF S-400 up in the hills should have seen them from launch.

Within Syria
@WithinSyriaBlog
·
4h
Israel strike on Damascus today was not a SEAD operation, nor another pinpoint strike ... It was a very complex attack.

ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
It seems this mornings strike on Syria may have been by surface-surface missiles according to the Syrians, if so likely either EXTRA guided artillery rocket or more likely battery of LORA short-range ballistic missiles from Golan Heights/northern Israel (Galilee)

Nothing strange happened; as i had aforementioned the informations about the penetration of Israeli aircraft in Syrian airspace was complete bollocks.

Even more it appear that Israel Army this time used exclusively surface to surface missiles -probably a combination of Delilah-GL cruise missiles and LORA ballistic missiles- in the attempt to capitalise transition from a fire position to another of some of the Syrian most advanced SAM vehicles (ground based missiles reduces enormously the early warning time's window for the defender).  

This tactic have partially worked ,in facts only few of the most advanced and mobile Syrian Army's air defense vehicles participated in the neutralization of the Israeli surprise attack and consequently an higher percentage of the incoming missiles (in particular ballistic ones) reached its target.  

Do we know which AD systems were involved in defense? And what Syria can do in the future?

Interesting that when push comes to shove Israel drops US tactics and adopts Russian tactics of Iskander strikes instead of airpower....