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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

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    MiddleKingdomer


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    Post  MiddleKingdomer Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:12 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Just a lull in the storm

    Washington wants to negotiate with Moscow its break from China

    Else the Kiev offensive is on and Nord Stream 2 is off

    And I think you can count on it that one way or the other the answer will be expected a good margin before the finish of Nord Stream 2

    The arm-flailing way Moscow has been reacting thus far; demonstratively deploying forces, talking about Srebrenica, labelling the US an enemy - only exposes its weakness and lack of control. NATO knows it has Russia by the throat here. Putin has to come up with something smarter, and he hasn't got much time.

    Not gonna happen. Iran, Pakistan, China, Russia is the new quad. On top of that, they are interconnected by road which makes it that much easier logistically. No way Putin will sour relation with Xi to appease Biden.

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    auslander
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    Post  auslander Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:30 pm

    Ever more strident drums of war beating. Additional and semi draconian sanctions against Mother with the expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats from US, said diplomats accused of being spies under cover of diplomatic immunity. Sanctions are aimed at those who 'helped Krimea in leaving orcland' and against Russian sovereign debt and her ability to borrow internationally. The 'debt' deal is in and of itself half a step from war.

    I read the two US ships cancelling their cruise in to Black Sea another way in they know their lifespan is measured in minutes if that when the balloon goes up. Uncle Sugar is moving troops and equipment as fast it can to eastern eu. It smells more and more like war. If this comes to pass, we in this village are going to find out just how good S 300, 400 and 500 are in addition to other little goodies involved in air defense. As a point of honor, our little village will be swamped with swarms of cruise ordinance.

    If it does come to open war, and my feeling is 98% coming, then the first thing Mother will do is crush the orcs instantly.

    Auslander

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    littlerabbit
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    Post  littlerabbit Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:34 pm


    Some new developments...more sanctions, state of emergency...wtf?!




    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 21 Biden10

    https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1382693299463553031

    Just checked it out...here is the link:

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/04/15/executive-order-on-blocking-property-with-respect-to-specified-harmful-foreign-activities-of-the-government-of-the-russian-federation/


    Last edited by littlerabbit on Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:42 pm; edited 2 times in total

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    wilhelm


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    Post  wilhelm Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:35 pm

    Bitcoin trader is in the US.
    His phraseology and US spelling was rather obvious from the beginning.

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    bitcointrader70


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    Post  bitcointrader70 Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:40 pm

    wilhelm wrote:Bitcoin trader is in the US.
    His phraseology and US spelling was rather obvious from the beginning.
    Yeah bro because there are no Russians that lived in the Russia and left. Or go back and forth.

    Some geniuses on this forum. Putin needs to strike hard and fast with tactical nukes. Don’t let nato build up their forces like they did with saddam.
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    elconquistador


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    Post  elconquistador Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:47 pm

    MiddleKingdomer wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Just a lull in the storm

    Washington wants to negotiate with Moscow its break from China

    Else the Kiev offensive is on and Nord Stream 2 is off

    And I think you can count on it that one way or the other the answer will be expected a good margin before the finish of Nord Stream 2

    The arm-flailing way Moscow has been reacting thus far; demonstratively deploying forces, talking about Srebrenica, labelling the US an enemy - only exposes its weakness and lack of control. NATO knows it has Russia by the throat here. Putin has to come up with something smarter, and he hasn't got much time.

    Not gonna happen. Iran, Pakistan, China, Russia is the new quad. On top of that, they are interconnected by road which makes it that much easier logistically. No way Putin will sour relation with Xi to appease Biden.

    You can't build up any relation with the Biden Administration anyway. Yesterday he called Putin out of the blue, and today he's signing new sanctions into effect/ calls a National Emergency

    Tomorrow he'll order an attack on Russian positions, the day after tomorrow he'll aplogize

    The entire Administration is running around like a headless chicken. No clear goals, no coherency, no clear command structure. Who is even in control right now, which faction?

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    Backman
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    Post  Backman Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:01 pm

    Sigh. This isn't the 1990's. Russia is the second most immigrated to country in the world. I know much of that is CIS but still. There is a lot of countries in the world. And a lot of movement.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russia-the-worlds-second-largest-immigration-haven-11053

    When the Rusal/Deripaska sanctions were reversed , that was the end of the road for real sanctions. We had negative oil prices in 2020 and Russia had the 4th most FX reserves at the same time. Russia is far from doomed with the status quo. Every day , China is taking up more and more of the US's energy. And that trend isn't going to reverse anytime soon. That is something in Russia's favor.

    I didn't realize we had another Navalyist in the house. Bitcoin man, life is a bitch for everyone in the working class. It doesn't much matter what country you are from. We are all living in this infinite money neoliberal world order.


    Last edited by Backman on Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  GarryB Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:07 pm

    Whenever a country moves a high concentration of forces to the border of another country that is going to alarm and worry them.

    But it is very duplicitous for the US to care about Russian troop movements while ignoring the Ukrainian troop movements that made them necessary.

    Because that is how land invasions work, forces are gathered at the borders and then they move into the other country.

    That is correct, so when a neighbour moves forces then it makes sense to counter those movements with movements of your own so they don't get any stupid ideas.


    Your remark displays a gross misunderstanding of how matters like these work.

    Your comment seems to condemn Russia moving troops within its own borders, but ignore the reasons for it, which make it fully justified.

    The simple movement of Russian forces likely stopped Kiev from doing something very very stupid... if they had done the same to Georgia in 07 08 08 then perhaps a lot of the people killed in that stupid conflict would be alive today.

    They under estimated the tie eaters stupidity, just as he overestimated the support he would get from the west.

    Also the entire reason Russia did that was to intimidate Ukraine, as Russia seemed to believe Ukraine was gearing up to attack Donbass.

    The mobilised their meagre forces and moved them to the conflict line and increased shelling... what was Russia supposed to think?

    Who needs Donbass when the Americans can roll through Kharkov and Sumy to Moscow proper.

    Even with such a head start what makes you think the Americans could roll anywhere?

    was that Russia was too weak to do anything about it. But now? I thought things were different now?

    Hahaha... on the one hand lets demonise Putin for being a land grabbing monster imperialist, but then when he doesn't gobble up states like South Ossetia or Abkhazia or the Donbass, you demand to know why not...

    Maybe he isn't interested in more land currently occupied by people who don't think they are Russian.

    The cold war is over... there is no world revolution and Russia is not out to destroy and then occupy the west.

    Once the Americans and EU allies get Ukraine in official blue, the matter of Belarus is trivial (if even needed at all). If you think just for a second that the Americans and their stooges will stop and give up after the recently failed color revolution in Belarus, and won't go for a second, third or fourth try until they reach their goal... as they did in Ukraine (successfully) you're dumber than a rock.

    I love your confidence that Ukraine will join HATO, but if it does will that correspond to EU membership too, or is this like Turkey.... we want you as a meat shield but we don't want you at dinner parties... unless you walk around carrying plates of food and drinks for the real guests.

    How many trillion will it cost the west to fix the Ukraine... it leaks like a sieve... so money going in flows to foreign bank accounts...

    If Ukraine becomes blue, Russia itself falling is only a matter of when, not if - a simple chronological end to well oiled remapping design.

    You mean like the dominos in Asia... when Vietnam fell the whole continent turned red didn't... what do you mean it didn't...

    The Americans and their EU allies can definitely feel it, they can taste it now.... Moscow is literally, in hands reach.

    They are dumber than they look then... Moscow is looking elsewhere... do you really think HATO could start WWIII from any territory and then win it?

    Are you drunk?

    Less bloody than ever before in history too. A marvel of social, psychological and economic engineering.. bluffing Russians with fear and deceit literally - and it fucking works. A marvel to watch as an observer.

    A nuclear flash wont leave much blood around the place, that you think the Ukraine or Belarus mean anything to Russia is amusing to say the least.

    The U.S is right in their assessment that Russia is a declining power geopolitically. I can't disagree with that... specially if the U.S and allies, with their NATO/EU construct continue, successfully, to push them East.

    You are suggesting that Russia controlled the Ukraine and the Baltic States at any time after 1990 for them to have lost them... they never had them and apart from the Crimea, had no interest in getting them back... you are the one that is deluded.

    The Ukraine is no loss at all, it is a broken country with nothing of value at all. If parts want to join the Russian federation I am sure they will probably accept them but it would actually be more in western interests to get rid of all their allies in Kiev and start telling the Ukrainians they are Russians... the economic damage of trying to fix the Ukraine would be the most damaging blow the west could actually inflict on Russia, but they are too dumb and arrogant to work that out.

    Amazing that you think the west can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, the US has printed more money in the last few years as it has over its entire existence and is no where near managing to balance a budget... it spends more than the rest of the world on defence, yet most of its threats are internal, for which their immense military power is useless.

    Whether a western attack comes from Poland or the Baltic States or the border of Ukraine, it would be crushed in hours... the build up would likely result in nuclear strikes because any armoured formation able to reach Moscow would be substantial and could not be used for anything else... it would be an obvious target for a tactical nuclear strike.

    Try to return that favour and find out how good Russian air defence is along with a nuclear strike on Brussels...

    Clearly Russia's enemy will not wait a second more.... for the more they do the more Russia gets stronger, the more time it has to position its chips. Plus, they got the rising dragon in the East to deal with.

    Now you are being honest... all that bullshit about Putin fucking up is smoke screen and mirrors... the west knows its fucked and it has painted itself into a corner... the west is getting weaker and dumber, while Russia and China are growing stronger and turning away from the west, which means they will get even stronger along with the other countries that trade with them because there will be no western hand holding them down.

    It is the west that is in trouble and is starting to gasp for breath... everyone with the internet can see their crimes and they highlight them with their propaganda... Navalny will bring down Putin... not because he could... he has no chance... but if anyone paid attention to evidence of war crimes and corruption to the highest level revealed by Assange and some high up people in the west could be in trouble... Navalny is being mistreated and his health is not good... see the pattern... some times it works the other way around... Putin supposedly tried to murder Skripal with a deadly nerve toxin but the only one who supposedly died was a junkie and her boyfriend and a cop got sick along with his daughter. When Trump murdered an Iranian general there were dozens of US Iraqi allies killed, though no mention of that was made...

    The goal has never been to bomb Moscow into nuclear ash and oblivion. The goal is to dismember Russia into manageable fiefdoms - thus erasing it from the map - without a nuke salvo involved. That's where your assumption of the "get out of jail free card nuclear option" saving Russia fools you. Did the Americans co-op the elites of all of those regions through cannon fire and nukes? No.

    The Americans have moved troops into the countries of the weak and the stupid and the poor, but they haven't moved into the Crimea, nor the Donbass yet.

    They wont move to the Crimea, and I suspect if they try to move into the Donbass the results will be catastrophic for them... these guys are not idiots and they know what they are doing and they have anti armour weapons the US normally does not face.

    But even strictly speaking in military terms, staging areas are highly valuable to have, specially on first strike scenarios, and specially considering where the population density of the Russian state resides. Who will wipe out who first and how fast? That's easy to predict looking at the map.

    One side of the line has an excellent functioning IADS... the other side is not even part of HATO yet... are you jumping the gun a little?

    So your solution is an all out invasion of Ukraine?, if Russia does that Europe will cut it off completely. The cost economically that invading would bring is immeasurable, that means Russia needs to rely on China for economic survivability and China will abuse that as it does to others.

    Russia will not invade the Ukraine, but it will assist the Donbass to obliterate the forces from Kiev.

    There is no easy way out here if Russia wants to stop Ukraine from going NATO it would need to evade right now and seize every piece of Ukraine but then it would be invading a sovereign nation.

    They could stop pumping gas through the Ukraine to start with, but you are correct, the Ukraine is very keen to join HATO, but will HATO agree to accept them in their current form?

    You are right that Ukraine IS going to end up in NATO just a matter of time unless Russia decides to fully invade and annex the region.

    So it ends up in HATO... who cares... that wont fix their economy and Russia can cut off what ever ties and investment still remain.

    If Germany and France cut off Russia from the EU economically completely using the Ukranian issue as an excuse I think nothing more needs to be said of their elites.

    They can't. The US can't supply enough freedom gas to keep the EU working... and the EU probably needs Russia more than Russia needs the EU... sanctions have been weening Russia off the west for the better part of two decades now... slow at the start but picking up the pace.... some of the hits were painful, but it is making Russia stronger and more independent, while the west is not becoming more powerful... the opposite in fact... its impotence and lack of ways to control Russia are pretty damn clear... and the backfire effect of sanctions is almost amusing.

    it's a zero sum game for the control of the European region. Always has been. As Zarakova likes to say on her media briefs.... it's always been about "who's boss?"

    Putin talked about a Eurasian home from Spain to Vladivostok, but the EU never wanted a partner.... it wanted living space in the east and all those mineral and energy resources, but only with Russia as a colony and not as a partner.

    Putin finally got the message... he will likely sell gas, but will look elsewhere for partnerships and future growth and development... whether that is China or India or South Africa or Brazil or Argentina... there are lots of countries out there who want free and open trade.

    So the threat is.... "Russia will be cut off from the EU completely".....

    I think the reply from Putin is... fine.

    The EU is not a world power anyway... they need permission from Washington, so there is no point looking that way any more.

    In other words? Accept slow death, by giving up Ukraine or else lose our meager business - considering the current state? I'll take the buffer and the people any day over some Euro notes printed in Frankfurt or wherever the **** else.

    What is this slow death shit, Russia never had the Ukraine... ever since the Soviet Union broke up the Ukraine has been distinctly not Russian, I would say cut off the EU and let them have the Ukraine... they broke it... let them fix it.

    Between a rock and a hard place.

    Not even close.

    All that work to mobilise the people of Belarus against Luka... a person anyone could build up an opposition to... the guy is obviously a crook, yet the west with all its propaganda magic and all powerful soft power and they failed... you say it is not important... is it not important because it is not important, or is it not important because if failed miserably like the HATO grab to kick Russia out of Sevastopol and maybe put a few HATO ships in there instead.

    These states know exactly what they're doing. Don't project caricatures built in your own head of their stupidity, neutrality, hostage (to the U.S) or whatever else... it's dumb.

    What sort of prizes has the EU won exactly.... how has the EU been strengthened with the addition of the Baltic States... and what sort of prize is the Ukraine going to be?

    Tomorrow it could be Belarus, or Georgia.... it never ends, and it never will end.

    They didn't even get close to upsetting things in Belarus, and Georgia means very little too... Georgia is already hostile and might as well be a HATO member for all it matters.

    I think you have an inflated idea of what being part of HATO actually gets you.... has HATO helped Turkey deal with its problems with Kurdish terrorists... oops no, HATO leader the United States of America is actually funding and supporting Kurds in Syria... a bit like they crowd funded the IRA in the UK for many many years... what a lovely group to be a part of.

    You go on field trips to places like Iraq and Afghanistan... America chooses the venue for the picnic...


    Cutting Russia from the EU completely will be as hurtful to the EU as it will be to Russia.

    It will be the best thing for Russia.

    So while the U.S will "win"... their allies will become weaker and less competitive.

    So this win... how will it make the US stronger if it weakens her European Allies?

    The European Union crumbling is in Russia's interests.

    Not at all, that is what the Americans want you stupid europeans to think... why would Russia spend trillions on upgrading ports in the far north and far east, and upgrade their rail network and build icebreakers to support transport from Asia to the EU... if the EU breaks how much trade will there be?

    The US is trying to break any connections or trade or links between the EU and Russia because they want to keep Asia and the EU apart and they don't want Russia to benefit from the links and trade.

    The North Sea Route and trains across the Russian land mass from Asia to the EU doesn't help the US it makes trade between all that money in Asia and all that money in the EU more profitable and faster and more secure because there are no pirates in the far north.

    instead of reacting similarly to losing ground as they're divided by the numbers bit by bit (Ukranians, Latvians, Belarussians etc etc etc etc...

    Latvian and Ukrainian land was never Russias to lose in the post soviet period.

    And Belarus can see what is happening in Latvia and to a greater extent in the Ukraine... they can see that when Russia stopped trading with these countries they lost their main and most vital customer... and the US and EU have not taken up the slack and restored their economies... what they have done is asset stripped anything not bolted down... and then got the bolt cutters.

    Nothing bands peoples together than presenting them a common adversary but if that isn't enough incentive NATO was more than willing to demonstrate what would happen to its enemies upon their defeat.

    Not to mention they will now have some rather scary lunatics amongst their ranks for the years to come... from broken countries that will need to be funded just to keep them stable.

    On the positive side they now have a new place to dump their absolute military junk that no one else wants.

    Putin does have a habit of giving us openings and we have taken them but he has also gotten in our way at times.

    Putin does his best work when the west tries something and fucks up.

    You can't manage the propaganda machine of the West. It's outside Russian control lmao.

    It serves its purpose well, but when it gets competition it squeals like a pig...

    US goals are very very simple, further isolation of the Russian state. Seizing Ukraine is a key part of doing this, sure lots of people here like to think Ukraine is worthless and pointless but no it's central and a test, how much can we rip away from Russia before they actually majorly oppose us.

    It is not Russian to begin with.


    This is why Russia is going through all the trouble.

    What trouble?

    It was never about war but control, the more and more we take away from Russia the weaker and weaker it gets.

    The Ukraine has been a money pit for Russia for a century and they are still not happy and blame Russia for everything.

    Taking the Ukraine away from Russia to weaken Russia... is like taking a nagging ugly wife who does nothing but expects to be looked after and costs you half the money you earn who wont even keep the house tidy or cook.

    The EU and US taking the Ukraine under their wing is like the US offering to pay to fix East Germany after the end of the Cold War.

    Fixing East Germany would probably be cheaper.

    We want them weak, with little influence that is all.

    Are you paying attention... they are stronger than they have ever been...

    The next step is to wait until the children grow up and then we start our mind games with them, he who controls the youth controls the future.

    You might struggle there when they look over the border and see what a shithole Kiev has become...

    Or for that matter in a generation when countries stop accepting monopoly money and want real currency or gold.

    We did take a minor L in Syria for now sure, but we have had far more victories over Russia than losses.

    See that is your problem... Russia is the enemy. Russia is such an enemy to the American people they allowed talks to take place to allow a withdrawal agreement to be negotiated between the US and the Taleban... and I am sure you hate them for it too you ungrateful censored .

    Everyone here really misses the grand chess game going on.

    Yeah, just all games. Except unlike in Chess if one side wins everyone loses so it is a perverse sort of chess where no one wants to go for the kill because that is lethal for everyone... yet don't realise that perhaps the game is not chess and that perhaps instead of taking his pieces and him taking yours you could probably work together for the benefit of everyone.... but nah... lets just piss away money on weapons and kill each other... that is the American dream... global dominance and murder... hidden by fake ethics and fake morals and fake humanity.

    Bullshit? Why anex Crimea (regardless of method)?

    Unlike the Baltic States and belarus and ukraine and georgia, the crimea actually was Russian and was the only piece they actually wanted back... so too late... it is gone. And it was a democratic vote so they joined the Russian Federation or will I have to start talking about HATO annexing countries in europe?

    Why save the Donbass? Abkhazia? etc etc... if territory is not valuable why did Russia fought for that?

    Russia didn't fight in the Donbass nor in Abkhazia. They had VDV peacekeepers in South Ossetia that Georgian troops murdered, so they went in and defended them.

    Why did Russia "enrage" "the West" into sanctioning them for taking part in those skirmishes?

    If that didn't happen another excuse would have been used to impose those sanctions... even if they had to poison someone themselves... they seem to have more novachok and their labs seem to be able to readily identify it for something only Russia has.

    Somehow other territory don't count because "consequences"... "fear" "fear".... exactly what the U.S wants as they move forward little by little.

    Nothing to do with consequences coming from the west... when was the last time the threat of sanctions changed Russias stance or actions or view point?

    Russia allowed the people of the Crimea to vote for their future, and would do the same for the people of the Donbass if criminal actions by Kiev led to them needing to intervene... like Georgian attacks on South Ossetia required intervention then.

    No regime change, no colour revolution, no replacement of politicians before elections or decisions made by the voting public.

    So not the west.

    Domino theory is not bullshit. It's common sense.

    It is why all of Asia is communist today...

    If you're completely surrounded by hostile states that actively work to undermine you, both politically and economically, your chances for exploiting and achieving your maximum economic potential as well as guarantee peace is absolutely 0. And it has always, in one way or another, led to war.

    Maybe true of Israel, but Russia is big enough to not need the west.

    The offensive side always pushes and pushes. It's the way it's.

    Yup, the west is certainly the offensive side... no question...


    Ideally, Ukraine would be part of the Eurasian Economic Union today... had it not being for a coup that literally blew all of those plans out of a Kremlin window. Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, and the Central Asian states all within an economic union - that was the plan, that was the dream

    Don't be so modest... it was an economic union that was not led by Russia or anyone and was supposed to also include the EU... but they wanted to lead and they didn't want Russia...

    That plan can never be now and Russia has accepted that.

    Why hasn't the EU and US accepted what they want is not going to happen either.

    - which the Americans and the EU both took a massive dump on. Domino pieces like Ukraine are valuable. It's like robbing someone's lunch, and then smacking the owner in the face with it. This ain't no checkers.

    Ukraine was a money pit for Russia and now it can be a money pit for the west... and you wonder why Putin is not desperately fighting to keep the Ukraine... the Ukraine was lost to Russia years before Putin took office and he knows it.

    Better not to assume anything, other than the fact that Russia will be massively out manned and outgunned.

    Really?

    So nothing really to lose in launching a full nuclear strike on Europe and the US for any invasion force crossing their border...

    Yes, which is why, the "ultimate consequence" of retaking Ukraine bites back both ways to Russia and the EU. BTW, that's the EU nuclear option, which folks are assuming they'll take, for the sake of Ukraine.

    I can't see Russia continuing to supply the EU with gas if the Ukraine uses military force to take the Donbass or enters HATO.

    Stop trying to dodge the confrontation by ceding ground - they clearly want it. Better now, than after there is no more ground left to cede.

    Ukrainian and Georgian land is not Russian to cede.

    While the option of an open Asia to Russia is a lifeline, it's not enough to sustain Russia as a great power vying for top dog status.

    Hahaha... of course.... Russia deep down is just like us and ultimately want to sit in our seat and be the US or the EU and dominate the world.

    That is why you don't understand Putin and that is why you are going to collapse.

    Thrashing around looking for enemies to attack... before the US started using sanctions and its US dollar as a weapon Russia owned large amounts of US debt.... and so did China, but sanctions and threats meant owning US debt becomes a liability.

    Clue to the clueless... owning some ones debt is either about controlling them... but you seriously have to own most of that to have that sort of leverage, or it is confidence that they will be able to pay the debt back.

    You don't own the debt of a country you see as an enemy and want to destroy that is just stupid because they will just default on the debt and you lose billions of dollars in money.

    But Russia is the enemy... push them away... ironically the investment american companies could use to make India and Russia grow would inject billions into those companies pockets which could be invested in the west to revive it and pull it back from collapse, but they don't invest to grow, they invest to siphon and make money for themselves... which is why Russia and India are better off without their investment.

    Eventually Russia will butt heads with China..... unless being third rate fiddle is what the Russian people picture themselves as (that is, if Russia doesn't fall to the political and economic destabilization coming from their Western periphery, and Central Asia first).

    Yeah, both China and Russia are vying to be America because that will end so well for the Yanks... they want to emulate stupid and selfish and greedy.

    Russia and China already disagree on some things... but they don't care and they don't blackmail with sanctions and military threats like the west does either.

    Its because they wanted to inflict damage on their opponents.

    Because they wanted to fix the problem at hand and didn't want to create more problems for themselves.

    Occupying a hostile civilian population in Georgia or Ukraine makes no sense.

    The people of the Donbass are Ukrainian.... they just object to the American coup in Kiev and being told they need to learn to speak Ukrainian instead of Russian which they normally speak.

    It would be like a Maori party taking power in New Zealand and demanding everyone speak Maori and no one speak English.

    If they send the military and try to force us to speak Maori only we would fight back but that does not mean we want the English to send a fleet to invade and occupy the country.

    If you could get rid of the nutters in Wellington that would be great but we don't want to be occupied by the English.

    Who says? Asia has 4.5 billion people, Europe has what- 1/10 of that? As an example the Russians could quit selling piped gas to Europe and switch to LNG and they would make a killing with Asian customers alone.

    Not to mention be able to name their price to the EU countries they sell to.

    It's on Russia to decide what to do, I don't think they have much time regarding Ukrainian issue.

    Sounds a bit like they have plenty of time... the west is going to pieces at them moving their forces within their own borders... ignoring Kiev is moving their pathetic forces too, which is why Russian forces are moving in the first place.

    In any hot spot in the world, Russia is playing the spoiler.

    Agree with most of what you said, but this implies that Russia is the enemy and is choosing its position and its actions specifically to counter the US, when in actual fact they are not doing this to attack the US.... for example like US forces in Syria are there to spoil things for Assad and the Syrian people suffer from them denying access to their oil. It is pure spite... I can have my way and I have failed so I can't get what I want but I am going to stay here and stop you from fixing what I broke just to spite you.

    Russia isn't doing that. The are not helping Syria fight Israel or America or anyone but the terrorists they went there to fight.

    Americans are censored .

    All the while having good relations with Israel, Iran and even Saudi Arabia.

    And Turkey.... none of which are natural friends of Russia... but America is pushing all sorts of countries together...

    Russia appears to be honest and trustworthy and working together with them is more productive than working against them... a lesson many countries have learned but not America... and therefore not the EU because the US controls the EU.

    What did China do when the US turned its sights on Libya ? It evacuated 60,000 of its own people and watched.

    When you see a man blowing his own head off step back so you don't get brain and blood on your shoes.

    To be fair Russia isn't complaining to China on every visit to free Tibet... neither Russia nor China want to be the world police, but the west created a situation in Syria where a lot of Russian nutters were going to fight Assad and destroy a country, so it was a chance for Russia to kill those terrorists in Syria rather than wait till they came home after destroying Syria. It helped the people of Syria and it helped Russia. And from a military perspective it was a great way of testing what had been done to upgrade their military since 2008.

    To be honest if you had said Russia was going to Syria to help Assad I would have said don't do it.... thinking thousands of dead Russians are not worth it, but they have done a fantastic job, and it has not bankrupted them either.

    Lots of new kit has been tested and changes and developments have been very valuable.

    If China had any brains they would send troops even just to test equipment and training and tactics and to learn from the Russians and Iranians and Syrians how to fight such wars... and to test some kit.

    China is panda bear. Herbivore. Compared to Russia is brown bear. Carnivore

    A sheep dog and a sheep make more sense working together when there are wolves about...

    Russia must do for Donbas more than what Armenia did for Artsakh when Azerbaijan invaded Artsakh. Russia must declare Ukraine violated Minsk treaty and declare war on Ukraine, recognize Donbas, and provide full military support the way Russia did against Georgia in 2008 when Georgia invaded Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    I rather suspect Russia will not send troops initially, but a no fly zone and perhaps certain other support like EW and drones as well as standoff weapons could be used to ensure Kiev does not get ideas above its station.

    Hopefully enough to stop any major bloodshed for either side.

    Most people here describe the anexation of Crimea like some kind of huge win for Russian Federation.
    I would be more cautious and say it was just the best option USA left Russia with.

    The loss of the Crimea was the primary lump of sand in the lady parts of the US of A and Kiev... the Ukraine sucked enormous amounts of money out of the Crimea... a popular holiday destination for many in the region.

    The Crimea are what the EU is most bitter about.

    A huge win for Russia would be to have a stable and friendly Ucraine as neighbour.

    Never going to happen.

    And even if it did, Russia had to buy a lot of inferior Soviet era stuff from the Ukraine to keep its economy going... now it makes much better stuff in Russia.

    A bit of a delay with helicopter engines and ship propulsion systems but mostly sorted now.

    Or convert Mexico or Canada into failed states

    They are aren't they?

    They both seem overly subservient to the US to be normal states.

    The setbacks for Russian economy because of Ucraine going rogue were pretty huge.

    Actually they were temporary and the food sanctions that Russia imposed on the EU in response for their sanctions have worked out a treat, with the agriculture sector in Russia booming now, which is good for sales of farm machinery etc etc.. and food exports.

    Anexation of Crimea was not cheap either. Sanctions for sure had negative impact. Russia was hurt. I do agree they managed to minimize damage the best they could, and played the cards they were dealt the best they could.

    They are putting money into Crimea, but they are getting money out too.... the crimea wanted to grow and develop and under kiev it was suffocating.

    Still a few problems but they are being sorted out... the opposite as under Kiev where there were lots of problems and no solutions in sight.

    As Putin said the rent alone for Sevastopol for the Russian Navy over a decade was 45 billion US dollars... saving that alone made it all worth while.

    But calling it a win...USA won that match, the same way Russia won Syria's game and USA lost it.

    The USA won the prize and the prize is the most damaged country in Europe being run by a bunch of people who admit to actually being Nazis.

    You could equally say that the US won in Syria too... that country was seriously damaged and is still split in pieces, and millions of people have suffered or were displaced... lots of children died or witnessed horrible violence that will haunt them for the rest of their lives... so mission accomplished Team America.

    It all took place without any casualties or successful destabilization on the peninsula itself. Sanctions are a small price to pay for that strategic piece of real estate and the extra 2.5 million loyal people who live there.

    The sanctions forced Russia to grow its own food... cheap food from the EU made any successful Russian food production almost impossible... it is easier and cheaper in warmer climates and huge efficient farms. A large efficient farm in Russia takes investment and when food is cheap and plentiful who is going to risk that sort of money.

    Well when cheap food from the EU is blocked the investment becomes lucrative, and a lot of investment resulted in a quality food industry being developed and growing and now competing in foreign markets too.... thanks EU... the WTO rules would never have allowed the Russian government invest in agriculture and ban foreign imports to protect local growers as they developed and got more competitive...

    Theoretically, Crimea could have continued to be part of a Ukraine with a strategic orientation to Russia, but that's all history now and really has been since the end of the USSR.

    The irony is Russia got the best of both worlds, no longer needing to carry Kiev but they get the Crimea.

    If this had happened in 2000 then there would have been serious problems because most ukrainian things Russia used would not be replaceable because they could afford to set up companies to replace those products.

    Delaying it till 2014 and Russia was in a position to rapidly set up companies and take the products they needed and either reengineer them with new modern tooling and CAD systems and CNC machines making them more accurately and out of better materials improving performance, or simply made new better designs like they did for helicopter engines...

    If he goes into Ukraine Russia loses Nordstream 2.

    Russia doesn't need NSII... Germany does.

    Russia is a dying country with a few moments of technological brilliance. Losing Ukraine is a no go.

    Russia never had the Ukraine and US and HATO troops are already in the Ukraine aren't they?

    Russia is stagnating and declining. Everything that’s happened since 2008 has been Russia losing. Lost Libya. Had to step in to save Syria. Georgia was Russia’s only win.

    So why is the west so afraid?

    The west destroyed libya, but Gadaffi had already chosen to turn to the west, so it was more suicide.

    Russia has defeated the terrorists in Syria (the EU and US).

    Russia is an independent country that the west cannot crush and it bugs them.

    But I am from Russia and life for poor and working class people in Russia sucks major ass and it’s not getting much better.

    Might come as a shock but people in the west don't live like Friends either...

    But 70% of the money still ends up in some oligarchs bank account as opposed to 90% like the yeltsin days. If we could get that down to about 50% maybe we will get somewhere. You foreigners talk a big game but try being a poor person in Russia and praising Putin.

    1% of the western population own about 80 percent of the wealth. The west used to have an enormous middle class that wasn't rich, but certainly wasn't poor.

    These days the middle class is disappearing into the group called poor... and poor is getting bigger.

    Jeff Bezos is worth 120 billion dollars and the people who work for him and make him all his money work for minimum wage and get fired which invalidates their health insurance if they get sick... think about that for a second... if you get sick you get fired which means you lose your health insurance...

    But I am sure all you heard was Jeff Bezos is worth 120 billion dollars and the fact that he pays little to no tax and treats his workers like shit means nothing.

    Why should he pay tax to fix roads and bridges... his helicopter doesn't use roads and bridge... right?

    It takes you 10 years of working class labor to save up $30,000 USd worth to buy an apartment.

    You couldn't rent an apartment in most western countries for that per year buddy...

    Your assumption is that for Ukraine to be a success story for the West, the country itself must be a success. That is wrong. The West cares nothing about Ukraine, its people, or its economic development.

    Very true but the more Ukraines the west creates the more the rest of the world sees and realises the American Dream is only for Americans and even then only 1% of them... can you guess which...

    Eventually the 99% of Americans are going to realise they are being played too perhaps.

    Imagine being called a fanboy when all you want is for middle class and working class people in Russia to have a better standard of living.

    By removing the only Russian politician with any chance of giving that to them...

    If the status quo remains the same Russia is doomed.

    Russia has fended off every attack the west has tried so far, and come out stronger each time...

    @bitcointrader70 liking your own posts is just bad form.

    John has told you about a forum rule, but then you have lurked here for ten years so you have been here longer than I have...

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    Post  GarryB Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:21 pm

    Sorry for the length of my previous post, I started replying and new replies kept coming so I kept adding responses and posted it before I realised how close to the record for longest post I have achieved.

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    Post  kvs Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:25 pm

    The parroting of NATzO propaganda talking points about Russian troop movements should be banworthy. Currently NATzO is staging
    "war games" spanning several months along Russia's border involving at the very least 30,000 troops. That number is provided by
    NATzO and may as well be a lie. So we have the BS about Russian troop movements on its own soil (yes that includes Crimea, since
    the recognition of its annexation by Ukraine by NATzO and its fellow travelers has zero moral and legal weight) while NATzO troop movements
    are supposedly angelic innocence. GTFO.

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    Post  kvs Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:50 pm

    zorobabel wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:The Ukraine is no 'staging ground'

    Staging ground for what? For showing Russian citizens what a cesspool they can become by adopting ethno-nationalism and becoming a NATO/EU client state? Not to mention showing the people of Belarus and other countries.
    Well on that ground it's actually serving Russia well just as it is.

    Ukraine would be valuable for the West if they managed to turn it into a success story. They didn't. Now it's just a deadweight and Russia should be glad that the West is stuck with it.
    I don't think you understand much about the West (especially the EU), its neoliberal economics, or its strategic aims.

    Your assumption is that for Ukraine to be a success story for the West, the country itself must be a success. That is wrong. The West cares nothing about Ukraine, its people, or its economic development.

    Firstly and most crucially, Ukraine is a source of cheap labor, of which there is a critical shortage in western EU states. Like the exodus 3 million Poles into western Europe, free movement with Ukraine will be a massive economic boon to the EU. And like Poles, Ukrainians are white Christians and as such are less politically contentious than brown and black Muslims. 5 million Ukrainians in western Europe is like a Soros fantasy.

    Secondly, Ukraine is no kind of money pit for the West. It's more like a casino, and it's one of the easiest ways for Western politicians to legally launder money. Tax citizens -> "spend" in Ukraine -> receive back as bribes, gifts, etc. from sycophant Ukrainian politicians (see Hunter Biden scandal, for example). If the locals keep a bit for themselves, no biggie. And all the aid they give will eventually end up either mostly in their own pockets, or will go to subsidizing domestic industries.

    Depopulated, de-industrialized, major parts of its economy controlled by Western investors, Ukraine may achieve some kind of level of development 30-40 years down the road like Poland. The idea that the West wants to turn Ukraine into a success to sway the people the opinions of the Russian people is propaganda from Western institutions and has nothing to do with their real intentions.

    Your analysis is missing some critical facts:

    1) It is a fail for the EU and NATzO that Ukraine is now a failed state with an imploding economy. The whole
    shtick of the west is to pimp itself as the land of milk and honey that others can only dream about. So,
    by definition, it cannot extract propaganda value from miserable failures like Ukraine.

    2) The economic value of Ukraine to the EU is marginal. The EU has more than enough cheap labour
    so this cannot be some sort of windfall. Ukraine has no useful resources other than its soil. This is
    especially true since the Donbass contains the coal deposits and non-conventional oil deposits.

    3) Even if you fob off Ukraine as a sink of money for NATzO, it still is a sink. Banana republics have
    value because United Fruit style companies can harvest from their plantations using basically slave labour
    to export commodities to the capitalist motherland. Where are there any substantial operations of this
    sort in Ukraine? WTF does Ukraine export? Ukraine needs IMF loans to operate and even these loans
    are being stolen faster than they are dished out. If NATzO plans to have Ukraine as a member then
    it desperately needs to fix its economy.

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    Post  PapaDragon Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:59 pm

    ATLASCUB wrote:..If any of you don't think all of this hasn't been a rather coordinated assault ever since the "Killer" comments and that it won't end with a final charge on the Donbass.... chef kiss......

    We have been waiting for that final charge on Donbass for over half a decade, why do you think we are on this forum?

    Truckloads of popcorn has gone stale in the meantime

    Will they get on it already?



    bitcointrader70 wrote:...Yeah let me tell some stranger on the internet where I live and my address.

    Let this stranger tell them for you: Your location is 404 same as 95% of "Russians" that people run into on English language Internet

    Mystery solved




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    Post  bitcointrader70 Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:20 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    ATLASCUB wrote:..If any of you don't think all of this hasn't been a rather coordinated assault ever since the "Killer" comments and that it won't end with a final charge on the Donbass....   chef kiss......

    We have been waiting for that final charge on Donbass for over half a decade, why do you think we are on this forum?

    Truckloads of popcorn has gone stale in the meantime

    Will they get on it already?



    bitcointrader70 wrote:...Yeah let me tell some stranger on the internet where I live and my address.

    Let this stranger tell them for you: Your location is 404 same as 95% of "Russians" that people run into on English language Internet

    Mystery solved




    I’ll show Gary b my Russian passport just to appease your mental gymnastics.
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    Post  PapaDragon Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:27 pm

    bitcointrader70 wrote:...I’ll show Gary b my Russian passport just to appease your mental gymnastics.

    Last time I checked I was not GarryB

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:37 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    bitcointrader70 wrote:...I’ll show Gary b my Russian passport just to appease your mental gymnastics.

    Last time I checked I was not GarryB

    Looks like he was the one engaging in mental gymnastics, and I bet the number 70 in his name stands for his IQ.....just under room temperature. Wink

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:02 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    bitcointrader70 wrote:...I’ll show Gary b my Russian passport just to appease your mental gymnastics.

    Last time I checked I was not GarryB

    Oooooor maybe you are!

    Perhaps one of you is an alter ego due to split personality disorder and we just don't know

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    Post  auslander Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:17 pm

    PapaDragon wrote: Last time I checked I was not GarryB

    Yeah, you're prettier than he is.
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    Post  par far Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:18 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    bitcointrader70 wrote:More sanctions on Russia today. Putin is in a very tough bind. If he goes into Ukraine Russia loses Nordstream 2. If he sits back and does nothing NATO moves into Ukraine while Russia slowly bleeds and becomes weaker and weaker with population decline. Putin needs to act decisively. Have nuclear armed forces on full alert to be ready for US NATO And use tactical nukes to send Ukraine back to the fucking Stone Age. It’s either WW3 or Russia slowly perishes into nothing. The delusional Russia fanboys on this forum are in denial/hysteria. Russia is a dying country with a few moments of technological brilliance. Losing Ukraine is a no go.

    Explain how Russia is a dying country retard.



    It is a troll account.

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    Post  bitcointrader70 Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:23 pm

    par far wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:
    bitcointrader70 wrote:More sanctions on Russia today. Putin is in a very tough bind. If he goes into Ukraine Russia loses Nordstream 2. If he sits back and does nothing NATO moves into Ukraine while Russia slowly bleeds and becomes weaker and weaker with population decline. Putin needs to act decisively. Have nuclear armed forces on full alert to be ready for US NATO And use tactical nukes to send Ukraine back to the fucking Stone Age. It’s either WW3 or Russia slowly perishes into nothing. The delusional Russia fanboys on this forum are in denial/hysteria. Russia is a dying country with a few moments of technological brilliance. Losing Ukraine is a no go.

    Explain how Russia is a dying country retard.



    It is a troll account.
    I wonder how butthurt you and everyone else will be when I prove that I’m a real Russian.
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    Post  JohninMK Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:23 pm

    auslander wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote: Last time I checked I was not GarryB

    Yeah, you're prettier than he is.

    But still miles from your dog Smile

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:27 pm

    bitcointrader70 wrote:
    I wonder how butthurt you and everyone else will be when I prove that I’m a real Russian.

    To be honest I doubt anyone on here gives a shit.

    We only care about what is posted and, over the years we have evolved standards that newbies are held against. Some pass and some fail. Which category you fall into is up to you.

    Assuming you are a Russian living in America is a good start for interesting views. We shall see.

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    Post  bitcointrader70 Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:31 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Whenever a country moves a high concentration of forces to the border of another country that is going to alarm and worry them.

    But it is very duplicitous for the US to care about Russian troop movements while ignoring the Ukrainian troop movements that made them necessary.

    Because that is how land invasions work, forces are gathered at the borders and then they move into the other country.

    That is correct, so when a neighbour moves forces then it makes sense to counter those movements with movements of your own so they don't get any stupid ideas.


    Your remark displays a gross misunderstanding of how matters like these work.

    Your comment seems to condemn Russia moving troops within its own borders, but ignore the reasons for it, which make it fully justified.

    The simple movement of Russian forces likely stopped Kiev from doing something very very stupid... if they had done the same to Georgia in 07 08 08 then perhaps a lot of the people killed in that stupid conflict would be alive today.

    They under estimated the tie eaters stupidity, just as he overestimated the support he would get from the west.

    Also the entire reason Russia did that was to intimidate Ukraine, as Russia seemed to believe Ukraine was gearing up to attack Donbass.

    The mobilised their meagre forces and moved them to the conflict line and increased shelling... what was Russia supposed to think?

    Who needs Donbass when the Americans can roll through Kharkov and Sumy to Moscow proper.

    Even with such a head start what makes you think the Americans could roll anywhere?

    was that Russia was too weak to do anything about it. But now? I thought things were different now?

    Hahaha... on the one hand lets demonise Putin for being a land grabbing monster imperialist, but then when he doesn't gobble up states like South Ossetia or Abkhazia or the Donbass, you demand to know why not...

    Maybe he isn't interested in more land currently occupied by people who don't think they are Russian.

    The cold war is over... there is no world revolution and Russia is not out to destroy and then occupy the west.

    Once the Americans and EU allies get Ukraine in official blue, the matter of Belarus is trivial (if even needed at all). If you think just for a second that the Americans and their stooges will stop and give up after the recently failed color revolution in Belarus, and won't go for a second, third or fourth try until they reach their goal... as they did in Ukraine (successfully) you're dumber than a rock.

    I love your confidence that Ukraine will join HATO, but if it does will that correspond to EU membership too, or is this like Turkey.... we want you as a meat shield but we don't want you at dinner parties... unless you walk around carrying plates of food and drinks for the real guests.

    How many trillion will it cost the west to fix the Ukraine... it leaks like a sieve... so money going in flows to foreign bank accounts...

    If Ukraine becomes blue, Russia itself falling is only a matter of when, not if - a simple chronological end to well oiled remapping design.

    You mean like the dominos in Asia... when Vietnam fell the whole continent turned red didn't... what do you mean it didn't...

    The Americans and their EU allies can definitely feel it, they can taste it now.... Moscow is literally, in hands reach.

    They are dumber than they look then... Moscow is looking elsewhere... do you really think HATO could start WWIII from any territory and then win it?

    Are you drunk?

    Less bloody than ever before in history too. A marvel of social, psychological and economic engineering.. bluffing Russians with fear and deceit literally - and it fucking works. A marvel to watch as an observer.

    A nuclear flash wont leave much blood around the place, that you think the Ukraine or Belarus mean anything to Russia is amusing to say the least.

    The U.S is right in their assessment that Russia is a declining power geopolitically. I can't disagree with that... specially if the U.S and allies, with their NATO/EU construct continue, successfully, to push them East.

    You are suggesting that Russia controlled the Ukraine and the Baltic States at any time after 1990 for them to have lost them... they never had them and apart from the Crimea, had no interest in getting them back... you are the one that is deluded.

    The Ukraine is no loss at all, it is a broken country with nothing of value at all. If parts want to join the Russian federation I am sure they will probably accept them but it would actually be more in western interests to get rid of all their allies in Kiev and start telling the Ukrainians they are Russians... the economic damage of trying to fix the Ukraine would be the most damaging blow the west could actually inflict on Russia, but they are too dumb and arrogant to work that out.

    Amazing that you think the west can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, the US has printed more money in the last few years as it has over its entire existence and is no where near managing to balance a budget... it spends more than the rest of the world on defence, yet most of its threats are internal, for which their immense military power is useless.

    Whether a western attack comes from Poland or the Baltic States or the border of Ukraine, it would be crushed in hours... the build up would likely result in nuclear strikes because any armoured formation able to reach Moscow would be substantial and could not be used for anything else... it would be an obvious target for a tactical nuclear strike.

    Try to return that favour and find out how good Russian air defence is along with a nuclear strike on Brussels...

    Clearly Russia's enemy will not wait a second more.... for the more they do the more Russia gets stronger, the more time it has to position its chips. Plus, they got the rising dragon in the East to deal with.

    Now you are being honest... all that bullshit about Putin fucking up is smoke screen and mirrors... the west knows its fucked and it has painted itself into a corner... the west is getting weaker and dumber, while Russia and China are growing stronger and turning away from the west, which means they will get even stronger along with the other countries that trade with them because there will be no western hand holding them down.

    It is the west that is in trouble and is starting to gasp for breath... everyone with the internet can see their crimes and they highlight them with their propaganda... Navalny will bring down Putin... not because he could... he has no chance... but if anyone paid attention to evidence of war crimes and corruption to the highest level revealed by Assange and some high up people in the west could be in trouble... Navalny is being mistreated and his health is not good... see the pattern... some times it works the other way around... Putin supposedly tried to murder Skripal with a deadly nerve toxin but the only one who supposedly died was a junkie and her boyfriend and a cop got sick along with his daughter. When Trump murdered an Iranian general there were dozens of US Iraqi allies killed, though no mention of that was made...

    The goal has never been to bomb Moscow into nuclear ash and oblivion. The goal is to dismember Russia into manageable fiefdoms - thus erasing it from the map - without a nuke salvo involved. That's where your assumption of the "get out of jail free card nuclear option" saving Russia fools you. Did the Americans co-op the elites of all of those regions through cannon fire and nukes? No.

    The Americans have moved troops into the countries of the weak and the stupid and the poor, but they haven't moved into the Crimea, nor the Donbass yet.

    They wont move to the Crimea, and I suspect if they try to move into the Donbass the results will be catastrophic for them... these guys are not idiots and they know what they are doing and they have anti armour weapons the US normally does not face.

    But even strictly speaking in military terms, staging areas are highly valuable to have, specially on first strike scenarios, and specially considering where the population density of the Russian state resides. Who will wipe out who first and how fast? That's easy to predict looking at the map.

    One side of the line has an excellent functioning IADS... the other side is not even part of HATO yet... are you jumping the gun a little?

    So your solution is an all out invasion of Ukraine?, if Russia does that Europe will cut it off completely. The cost economically that invading would bring is immeasurable, that means Russia needs to rely on China for economic survivability and China will abuse that as it does to others.

    Russia will not invade the Ukraine, but it will assist the Donbass to obliterate the forces from Kiev.

    There is no easy way out here if Russia wants to stop Ukraine from going NATO it would need to evade right now and seize every piece of Ukraine but then it would be invading a sovereign nation.

    They could stop pumping gas through the Ukraine to start with, but you are correct, the Ukraine is very keen to join HATO, but will HATO agree to accept them in their current form?

    You are right that Ukraine IS going to end up in NATO just a matter of time unless Russia decides to fully invade and annex the region.

    So it ends up in HATO... who cares... that wont fix their economy and Russia can cut off what ever ties and investment still remain.

    If Germany and France cut off Russia from the EU economically completely using the Ukranian issue as an excuse I think nothing more needs to be said of their elites.

    They can't. The US can't supply enough freedom gas to keep the EU working... and the EU probably needs Russia more than Russia needs the EU... sanctions have been weening Russia off the west for the better part of two decades now... slow at the start but picking up the pace.... some of the hits were painful, but it is making Russia stronger and more independent, while the west is not becoming more powerful... the opposite in fact... its impotence and lack of ways to control Russia are pretty damn clear... and the backfire effect of sanctions is almost amusing.

    it's a zero sum game for the control of the European region. Always has been. As Zarakova likes to say on her media briefs.... it's always been about "who's boss?"

    Putin talked about a Eurasian home from Spain to Vladivostok, but the EU never wanted a partner.... it wanted living space in the east and all those mineral and energy resources, but only with Russia as a colony and not as a partner.

    Putin finally got the message... he will likely sell gas, but will look elsewhere for partnerships and future growth and development... whether that is China or India or South Africa or Brazil or Argentina... there are lots of countries out there who want free and open trade.

    So the threat is.... "Russia will be cut off from the EU completely".....

    I think the reply from Putin is... fine.

    The EU is not a world power anyway... they need permission from Washington, so there is no point looking that way any more.

    In other words? Accept slow death, by giving up Ukraine or else lose our meager business - considering the current state? I'll take the buffer and the people any day over some Euro notes printed in Frankfurt or wherever the **** else.

    What is this slow death shit, Russia never had the Ukraine... ever since the Soviet Union broke up the Ukraine has been distinctly not Russian, I would say cut off the EU and let them have the Ukraine... they broke it... let them fix it.

    Between a rock and a hard place.

    Not even close.

    All that work to mobilise the people of Belarus against Luka... a person anyone could build up an opposition to... the guy is obviously a crook, yet the west with all its propaganda magic and all powerful soft power and they failed... you say it is not important... is it not important because it is not important, or is it not important because if failed miserably like the HATO grab to kick Russia out of Sevastopol and maybe put a few HATO ships in there instead.

    These states know exactly what they're doing. Don't project caricatures built in your own head of their stupidity, neutrality, hostage (to the U.S) or whatever else... it's dumb.

    What sort of prizes has the EU won exactly.... how has the EU been strengthened with the addition of the Baltic States... and what sort of prize is the Ukraine going to be?

    Tomorrow it could be Belarus, or Georgia.... it never ends, and it never will end.

    They didn't even get close to upsetting things in Belarus, and Georgia means very little too... Georgia is already hostile and might as well be a HATO member for all it matters.

    I think you have an inflated idea of what being part of HATO actually gets you.... has HATO helped Turkey deal with its problems with Kurdish terrorists... oops no, HATO leader the United States of America is actually funding and supporting Kurds in Syria... a bit like they crowd funded the IRA in the UK for many many years... what a lovely group to be a part of.

    You go on field trips to places like Iraq and Afghanistan... America chooses the venue for the picnic...


    Cutting Russia from the EU completely will be as hurtful to the EU as it will be to Russia.

    It will be the best thing for Russia.

    So while the U.S will "win"... their allies will become weaker and less competitive.

    So this win... how will it make the US stronger if it weakens her European Allies?

    The European Union crumbling is in Russia's interests.

    Not at all, that is what the Americans want you stupid europeans to think... why would Russia spend trillions on upgrading ports in the far north and far east, and upgrade their rail network and build icebreakers to support transport from Asia to the EU... if the EU breaks how much trade will there be?

    The US is trying to break any connections or trade or links between the EU and Russia because they want to keep Asia and the EU apart and they don't want Russia to benefit from the links and trade.

    The North Sea Route and trains across the Russian land mass from Asia to the EU doesn't help the US it makes trade between all that money in Asia and all that money in the EU more profitable and faster and more secure because there are no pirates in the far north.

    instead of reacting similarly to losing ground as they're divided by the numbers bit by bit (Ukranians, Latvians, Belarussians etc etc etc etc...

    Latvian and Ukrainian land was never Russias to lose in the post soviet period.

    And Belarus can see what is happening in Latvia and to a greater extent in the Ukraine... they can see that when Russia stopped trading with these countries they lost their main and most vital customer... and the US and EU have not taken up the slack and restored their economies... what they have done is asset stripped anything not bolted down... and then got the bolt cutters.

    Nothing bands peoples together than presenting them a common adversary but if that isn't enough incentive NATO was more than willing to demonstrate what would happen to its enemies upon their defeat.

    Not to mention they will now have some rather scary lunatics amongst their ranks for the years to come... from broken countries that will need to be funded just to keep them stable.

    On the positive side they now have a new place to dump their absolute military junk that no one else wants.

    Putin does have a habit of giving us openings and we have taken them but he has also gotten in our way at times.

    Putin does his best work when the west tries something and fucks up.

    You can't manage the propaganda machine of the West. It's outside Russian control lmao.

    It serves its purpose well, but when it gets competition it squeals like a pig...

    US goals are very very simple, further isolation of the Russian state. Seizing Ukraine is a key part of doing this, sure lots of people here like to think Ukraine is worthless and pointless but no it's central and a test, how much can we rip away from Russia before they actually majorly oppose us.

    It is not Russian to begin with.


    This is why Russia is going through all the trouble.

    What trouble?

    It was never about war but control, the more and more we take away from Russia the weaker and weaker it gets.

    The Ukraine has been a money pit for Russia for a century and they are still not happy and blame Russia for everything.

    Taking the Ukraine away from Russia to weaken Russia... is like taking a nagging ugly wife who does nothing but expects to be looked after and costs you half the money you earn who wont even keep the house tidy or cook.

    The EU and US taking the Ukraine under their wing is like the US offering to pay to fix East Germany after the end of the Cold War.

    Fixing East Germany would probably be cheaper.

    We want them weak, with little influence that is all.

    Are you paying attention... they are stronger than they have ever been...

    The next step is to wait until the children grow up and then we start our mind games with them, he who controls the youth controls the future.

    You might struggle there when they look over the border and see what a shithole Kiev has become...

    Or for that matter in a generation when countries stop accepting monopoly money and want real currency or gold.

    We did take a minor L in Syria for now sure, but we have had far more victories over Russia than losses.

    See that is your problem... Russia is the enemy. Russia is such an enemy to the American people they allowed talks to take place to allow a withdrawal agreement to be negotiated between the US and the Taleban... and I am sure you hate them for it too you ungrateful censored .

    Everyone here really misses the grand chess game going on.

    Yeah, just all games.  Except unlike in Chess if one side wins everyone loses so it is a perverse sort of chess where no one wants to go for the kill because that is lethal for everyone... yet don't realise that perhaps the game is not chess and that perhaps instead of taking his pieces and him taking yours you could probably work together for the benefit of everyone.... but nah... lets just piss away money on weapons and kill each other... that is the American dream... global dominance and murder... hidden by fake ethics and fake morals and fake humanity.

    Bullshit? Why anex Crimea (regardless of method)?

    Unlike the Baltic States and belarus and ukraine and georgia, the crimea actually was Russian and was the only piece they actually wanted back... so too late... it is gone. And it was a democratic vote so they joined the Russian Federation or will I have to start talking about HATO annexing countries in europe?

    Why save the Donbass? Abkhazia? etc etc... if territory is not valuable why did Russia fought for that?

    Russia didn't fight in the Donbass nor in Abkhazia. They had VDV peacekeepers in South Ossetia that Georgian troops murdered, so they went in and defended them.

    Why did Russia "enrage" "the West" into sanctioning them for taking part in those skirmishes?

    If that didn't happen another excuse would have been used to impose those sanctions... even if they had to poison someone themselves... they seem to have more novachok and their labs seem to be able to readily identify it for something only Russia has.

    Somehow other territory don't count because "consequences"... "fear" "fear".... exactly what the U.S wants as they move forward little by little.

    Nothing to do with consequences coming from the west... when was the last time the threat of sanctions changed Russias stance or actions or view point?

    Russia allowed the people of the Crimea to vote for their future, and would do the same for the people of the Donbass if criminal actions by Kiev led to them needing to intervene... like Georgian attacks on South Ossetia required intervention then.

    No regime change, no colour revolution, no replacement of politicians before elections or decisions made by the voting public.

    So not the west.

    Domino theory is not bullshit. It's common sense.

    It is why all of Asia is communist today...

    If you're completely surrounded by hostile states that actively work to undermine you, both politically and economically, your chances for exploiting and achieving your maximum economic potential as well as guarantee peace is absolutely 0. And it has always, in one way or another, led to war.

    Maybe true of Israel, but Russia is big enough to not need the west.

    The offensive side always pushes and pushes. It's the way it's.

    Yup, the west is certainly the offensive side... no question...


    Ideally, Ukraine would be part of the Eurasian Economic Union today... had it not being for a coup that literally blew all of those plans out of a Kremlin window. Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, and the Central Asian states all within an economic union - that was the plan, that was the dream

    Don't be so modest... it was an economic union that was not led by Russia or anyone and was supposed to also include the EU... but they wanted to lead and they didn't want Russia...

    That plan can never be now and Russia has accepted that.

    Why hasn't the EU and US accepted what they want is not going to happen either.

    - which the Americans and the EU both took a massive dump on. Domino pieces like Ukraine are valuable. It's like robbing someone's lunch, and then smacking the owner in the face with it. This ain't no checkers.

    Ukraine was a money pit for Russia and now it can be a money pit for the west... and you wonder why Putin is not desperately fighting to keep the Ukraine... the Ukraine was lost to Russia years before Putin took office and he knows it.

    Better not to assume anything, other than the fact that Russia will be massively out manned and outgunned.

    Really?

    So nothing really to lose in launching a full nuclear strike on Europe and the US for any invasion force crossing their border...

    Yes, which is why, the "ultimate consequence" of retaking Ukraine bites back both ways to Russia and the EU. BTW, that's the EU nuclear option, which folks are assuming they'll take, for the sake of Ukraine.

    I can't see Russia continuing to supply the EU with gas if the Ukraine uses military force to take the Donbass or enters HATO.

    Stop trying to dodge the confrontation by ceding ground - they clearly want it. Better now, than after there is no more ground left to cede.

    Ukrainian and Georgian land is not Russian to cede.

    While the option of an open Asia to Russia is a lifeline, it's not enough to sustain Russia as a great power vying for top dog status.

    Hahaha... of course.... Russia deep down is just like us and ultimately want to sit in our seat and be the US or the EU and dominate the world.

    That is why you don't understand Putin and that is why you are going to collapse.

    Thrashing around looking for enemies to attack... before the US started using sanctions  and its US dollar as a weapon Russia owned large amounts of US debt.... and so did China, but sanctions and threats meant owning US debt becomes a liability.

    Clue to the clueless... owning some ones debt is either about controlling them... but you seriously have to own most of that to have that sort of leverage, or it is confidence that they will be able to pay the debt back.

    You don't own the debt of a country you see as an enemy and want to destroy that is just stupid because they will just default on the debt and you lose billions of dollars in money.

    But Russia is the enemy... push them away... ironically the investment american companies could use to make India and Russia grow would inject billions into those companies pockets which could be invested in the west to revive it and pull it back from collapse, but they don't invest to grow, they invest to siphon and make money for themselves... which is why Russia and India are better off without their investment.

    Eventually Russia will butt heads with China..... unless being third rate fiddle is what the Russian people picture themselves as (that is, if Russia doesn't fall to the political and economic destabilization coming from their Western periphery, and Central Asia first).

    Yeah, both China and Russia are vying to be America because that will end so well for the Yanks... they want to emulate stupid and selfish and greedy.

    Russia and China already disagree on some things... but they don't care and they don't blackmail with sanctions and military threats like the west does either.

    Its because they wanted to inflict damage on their opponents.

    Because they wanted to fix the problem at hand and didn't want to create more problems for themselves.

    Occupying a hostile civilian population in Georgia or Ukraine makes no sense.

    The people of the Donbass are Ukrainian.... they just object to the American coup in Kiev and being told they need to learn to speak Ukrainian instead of Russian which they normally speak.

    It would be like a Maori party taking power in New Zealand and demanding everyone speak Maori and no one speak English.

    If they send the military and try to force us to speak Maori only we would fight back but that does not mean we want the English to send a fleet to invade and occupy the country.

    If you could get rid of the nutters in Wellington that would be great but we don't want to be occupied by the English.

    Who says? Asia has 4.5 billion people, Europe has what- 1/10 of that? As an example the Russians could quit selling piped gas to Europe and switch to LNG and they would make a killing with Asian customers alone.

    Not to mention be able to name their price to the EU countries they sell to.

    It's on Russia to decide what to do, I don't think they have much time regarding Ukrainian issue.

    Sounds a bit like they have plenty of time... the west is going to pieces at them moving their forces within their own borders... ignoring Kiev is moving their pathetic forces too, which is why Russian forces are moving in the first place.

    In any hot spot in the world, Russia is playing the spoiler.

    Agree with most of what you said, but this implies that Russia is the enemy and is choosing its position and its actions specifically to counter the US, when in actual fact they are not doing this to attack the US.... for example like US forces in Syria are there to spoil things for Assad and the Syrian people suffer from them denying access to their oil. It is pure spite... I can have my way and I have failed so I can't get what I want but I am going to stay here and stop you from fixing what I broke just to spite you.

    Russia isn't doing that. The are not helping Syria fight Israel or America or anyone but the terrorists they went there to fight.

    Americans are censored .

    All the while having good relations with Israel, Iran and even Saudi Arabia.

    And Turkey.... none of which are natural friends of Russia... but America is pushing all sorts of countries together...

    Russia appears to be honest and trustworthy and working together with them is more productive than working against them... a lesson many countries have learned but not America... and therefore not the EU because the US controls the EU.

    What did China do when the US turned its sights on Libya ? It evacuated 60,000 of its own people and watched.

    When you see a man blowing his own head off step back so you don't get brain and blood on your shoes.

    To be fair Russia isn't complaining to China on every visit to free Tibet... neither Russia nor China want to be the world police, but the west created a situation in Syria where a lot of Russian nutters were going to fight Assad and destroy a country, so it was a chance for Russia to kill those terrorists in Syria rather than wait till they came home after destroying Syria. It helped the people of Syria and it helped Russia. And from a military perspective it was a great way of testing what had been done to upgrade their military since 2008.

    To be honest if you had said Russia was going to Syria to help Assad I would have said don't do it.... thinking thousands of dead Russians are not worth it, but they have done a fantastic job, and it has not bankrupted them either.

    Lots of new kit has been tested and changes and developments have been very valuable.

    If China had any brains they would send troops even just to test equipment and training and tactics and to learn from the Russians and Iranians and Syrians how to fight such wars... and to test some kit.

    China is panda bear. Herbivore. Compared to Russia is brown bear. Carnivore

    A sheep dog and a sheep make more sense working together when there are wolves about...

    Russia must do for Donbas more than what Armenia did for Artsakh when Azerbaijan invaded Artsakh. Russia must declare Ukraine violated Minsk treaty and declare war on Ukraine, recognize Donbas, and provide full military support the way Russia did against Georgia in 2008 when Georgia invaded Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    I rather suspect Russia will not send troops initially, but a no fly zone and perhaps certain other support like EW and drones as well as standoff weapons could be used to ensure Kiev does not get ideas above its station.

    Hopefully enough to stop any major bloodshed for either side.

    Most people here describe the anexation of Crimea like some kind of huge win for Russian Federation.
    I would be more cautious and say it was just the best option USA left Russia with.

    The loss of the Crimea was the primary lump of sand in the lady parts of the US of A and Kiev... the Ukraine sucked enormous amounts of money out of the Crimea... a popular holiday destination for many in the region.

    The Crimea are what the EU is most bitter about.

    A huge win for Russia would be to have a stable and friendly Ucraine as neighbour.

    Never going to happen.

    And even if it did, Russia had to buy a lot of inferior Soviet era stuff from the Ukraine to keep its economy going... now it makes much better stuff in Russia.

    A bit of a delay with helicopter engines and ship propulsion systems but mostly sorted now.

    Or convert Mexico or Canada into failed states

    They are aren't they?

    They both seem overly subservient to the US to be normal states.

    The setbacks for Russian economy because of Ucraine going rogue were pretty huge.

    Actually they were temporary and the food sanctions that Russia imposed on the EU in response for their sanctions have worked out a treat, with the agriculture sector in Russia booming now, which is good for sales of farm machinery etc etc.. and food exports.

    Anexation of Crimea was not cheap either. Sanctions for sure had negative impact. Russia was hurt. I do agree they managed to minimize damage the best they could, and played the cards they were dealt the best they could.

    They are putting money into Crimea, but they are getting money out too.... the crimea wanted to grow and develop and under kiev it was suffocating.

    Still a few problems but they are being sorted out... the opposite as under Kiev where there were lots of problems and no solutions in sight.

    As Putin said the rent alone for Sevastopol for the Russian Navy over a decade was 45 billion US dollars... saving that alone made it all worth while.

    But calling it a win...USA won that match, the same way Russia won Syria's game and USA lost it.

    The USA won the prize and the prize is the most damaged country in Europe being run by a bunch of people who admit to actually being Nazis.

    You could equally say that the US won in Syria too... that country was seriously damaged and is still split in pieces, and millions of people have suffered or were displaced... lots of children died or witnessed horrible violence that will haunt them for the rest of their lives... so mission accomplished Team America.

    It all took place without any casualties or successful destabilization on the peninsula itself. Sanctions are a small price to pay for that strategic piece of real estate and the extra 2.5 million loyal people who live there.

    The sanctions forced Russia to grow its own food... cheap food from the EU made any successful Russian food production almost impossible... it is easier and cheaper in warmer climates and huge efficient farms. A large efficient farm in Russia takes investment and when food is cheap and plentiful who is going to risk that sort of money.

    Well when cheap food from the EU is blocked the investment becomes lucrative, and a lot of investment resulted in a quality food industry being developed and growing and now competing in foreign markets too.... thanks EU... the WTO rules would never have allowed the Russian government invest in agriculture and ban foreign imports to protect local growers as they developed and got more competitive...

    Theoretically, Crimea could have continued to be part of a Ukraine with a strategic orientation to Russia, but that's all history now and really has been since the end of the USSR.

    The irony is Russia got the best of both worlds, no longer needing to carry Kiev but they get the Crimea.

    If this had happened in 2000 then there would have been serious problems because most ukrainian things Russia used would not be replaceable because they could afford to set up companies to replace those products.

    Delaying it till 2014 and Russia was in a position to rapidly set up companies and take the products they needed and either reengineer them with new modern tooling and CAD systems and CNC machines making them more accurately and out of better materials improving performance, or simply made new better designs like they did for helicopter engines...

    If he goes into Ukraine Russia loses Nordstream 2.

    Russia doesn't need NSII... Germany does.

    Russia is a dying country with a few moments of technological brilliance. Losing Ukraine is a no go.

    Russia never had the Ukraine and US and HATO troops are already in the Ukraine aren't they?

    Russia is stagnating and declining. Everything that’s happened since 2008 has been Russia losing. Lost Libya. Had to step in to save Syria. Georgia was Russia’s only win.

    So why is the west so afraid?

    The west destroyed libya, but Gadaffi had already chosen to turn to the west, so it was more suicide.

    Russia has defeated the terrorists in Syria (the EU and US).

    Russia is an independent country that the west cannot crush and it bugs them.

    But I am from Russia and life for poor and working class people in Russia sucks major ass and it’s not getting much better.

    Might come as a shock but people in the west don't live like Friends either...

    But 70% of the money still ends up in some oligarchs bank account as opposed to 90% like the yeltsin days. If we could get that down to about 50% maybe we will get somewhere. You foreigners talk a big game but try being a poor person in Russia and praising Putin.

    1% of the western population own about 80 percent of the wealth. The west used to have an enormous middle class that wasn't rich, but certainly wasn't poor.

    These days the middle class is disappearing into the group called poor... and poor is getting bigger.

    Jeff Bezos is worth 120 billion dollars and the people who work for him and make him all his money work for minimum wage and get fired which invalidates their health insurance if they get sick... think about that for a second... if you get sick you get fired which means you lose your health insurance...

    But I am sure all you heard was Jeff Bezos is worth 120 billion dollars and the fact that he pays little to no tax and treats his workers like shit means nothing.

    Why should he pay tax to fix roads and bridges... his helicopter doesn't use roads and bridge... right?

    It takes you 10 years of working class labor to save up $30,000 USd worth to buy an apartment.

    You couldn't rent an apartment in most western countries for that per year buddy...

    Your assumption is that for Ukraine to be a success story for the West, the country itself must be a success. That is wrong. The West cares nothing about Ukraine, its people, or its economic development.

    Very true but the more Ukraines the west creates the more the rest of the world sees and realises the American Dream is only for Americans and even then only 1% of them... can you guess which...

    Eventually the 99% of Americans are going to realise they are being played too perhaps.

    Imagine being called a fanboy when all you want is for middle class and working class people in Russia to have a better standard of living.

    By removing the only Russian politician with any chance of giving that to them...

    If the status quo remains the same Russia is doomed.

    Russia has fended off every attack the west has tried so far, and come out stronger each time...

    @bitcointrader70 liking your own posts is just bad form.

    John has told you about a forum rule, but then you have lurked here for ten years so you have been here longer than I have...
    If they had mental gymnastics at the olympics you would would have more gold medals than Michael Phelps. You are the biggest Russophile I’ve ever seen. Every poor decision. Every obvious loss. Every blunder. Every inch of territory nato gains and Russia loses. You try to spin it off like some kind magical 4d chess that Putin is playing. The middle class and poor working class is suffering. Russian culture is declining. When I went to Russia 2 years ago my cousins were very anti Putin and listening to garbage rap music. Lots of young kids with tattoos looking like degenerates. Most of my working class friends struggle to get by and work 6-7 days a week. Russia has gotten stronger? Only in the sense that it recovered from the 90s. They cut pensions. The health care is going to shit and yes it is worse than American health care by a lot. You can’t survive on Russian welfare. It’s a joke.

    You don’t even live in Russia but you worship the country like a monolith? Have you ever even been there?

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    kvs
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 21 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  kvs Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:03 pm



    Looks like the yanqui warship dick waving was a limp flop!

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    lyle6
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 21 Empty Ukraine ponders nuclear arms

    Post  lyle6 Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:04 pm

    Ukraine is considering arming itself with nuclear weapons should the eastern European country not become a member of NATO, its ambassador to Germany says.

    "Either we are part of an alliance like NATO and contribute in this way to making Europe stronger ... or we are left with the other option, which is to arm ourselves," Ambassador Andriy Melnyk said on Deutschlandfunk radio.

    Kiev would then "perhaps also consider its nuclear status," He said. "How else can we guarantee our defence?"

    In 1994, Kiev had renounced ownership of the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal from Soviet times, which was stored on Ukrainian territory. The nuclear warheads were all transported to Russia. In return, the US, Britain and Russia pledged to respect Ukraine's borders.

    Ukraine has been seeking membership of the Western military alliance NATO for years, but this is considered unlikely in the near future.

    Military tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been high since the annexation by Russia of the Crimean peninsula in 2014.

    The conflict area of eastern Ukraine, where Moscow supports pro-Russian separatists, and troop deployments on Russian and Ukrainian territory have caused international concern in recent weeks.

    Melnyk spoke of "real war preparations for a new military attack on Ukraine, which should also be taken seriously in Berlin."

    Moscow maintains that it is only reacting to provocations from Kiev and has rejected the allegations of troop deployments.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-ponders-nuclear-arms-102813639.html

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    lancelot
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 21 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    Post  lancelot Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:17 pm

    Nice joke. They can't even find the capital to build new tanks. Where are they going to get the resources for these nuclear weapons?

    I know their missile industry still has enough capabilities to make some sort of launcher at least of North Korean level.
    But where are they going to get the materials and the specialists to make the actual warheads?
    That is assuming Uncle Sham would even let them try to get nukes. They didn't let Taiwan get nukes and they were a lot closer to actually having them.
    Just read about it.

    Good luck.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29 - Page 21 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

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