The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

OSINTtechnical
@Osinttechnical
· 9h
“Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.” https://militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/11/20/russia-preparing-to-attack-ukraine-by-late-january-ukraine-defense-intelligence-agency-chief/

Ukraine’s defense intelligence

They already concebtrated tgeir forces around Ukraine to force Biden to talk with Putin and stop US support few months back.

IMO it could be the same.

However the military build up is happening so any scenario is possible.

I think Russia wouldn't invade but just push back ukrainian army from the front and oblig them to sign a piece treaty with Donbass. Second step, if it fails, could be precision attacks and air superiority over Ukraine. Final would be the invasion.

Now, if you were pre-positioning your forces to react in the event of a sudden Ukie strike where would you put them? Oh, where they roughly are on the map Also giving the Ukies the threat on 3 fronts even if the intent was only on one. Personally I suspect that there are very significant rocket and missile forces in those deployments, mind you even the Ukies say there are over 20% fewer Russian BTG in place than in April.

I suspect that part of the howls from Kiev are due to them realising that the Russians have effectively negated any possibility that existed in their tiny minds that they might succeed, giving them a serious problem in fulfilling the task set to them by their Master in Washington.

Really spot on analysis


There is something of the theater of absurd in American and European posturing. But it’s far from funny. It’s menacingly deranged.

The United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin this week performed impressive, albeit pathetic, mental gymnastics. In a press conference, the Pentagon chief called on Russia to be more transparent about troop movements “on the border with Ukraine”. In others words, on Russian soil.

Meanwhile, the absurd hypocrisy sees U.S. and NATO forces brazenly escalating their offensive presence on Russia’s borders, especially in the Black Sea region.

Here’s an Associated Press clip on the Pentagon press conference: “American officials are unsure why Russian President Vladimir Putin is building up military forces near the border with eastern Ukraine but view it as another example of troubling military moves that demand Moscow’s explanation, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday.”

The report quotes Austin as saying: “We’ll continue to call on Russia to act responsibly and be more transparent on the buildup of the forces around on the border of Ukraine… We’re not sure exactly what Mr Putin is up to.”

This dubious talent for mind-bending mental gymnastics and double-think is shared with other members of the Biden administration. Last week, America’s top diplomat Antony Blinken claimed that Russia was about to invade Ukraine yet at the same time the U.S. Secretary of State confessed similar ignorance about what “Putin is up to”.

How is it possible to engage in meaningful dialogue with such vacuous people who are supposed to be government leaders – and leaders too of the self-declared world’s most powerful, most brilliant nation? No undue offense intended, but it would probably be more productive to engage in a dialogue with the bewildering characters from Samuel Beckett’s absurdist play Waiting for Godot.

Russia has repeatedly dismissed all claims about it threatening Ukraine or any other country with invasion. Moscow also disputes “unreliable” information touted by the Biden administration and Western media of troop buildup near Ukraine on its western flank. Western media reports have relied on dodgy commercial satellite data purporting to show Russian military maneuvers. It is contemptible that senior U.S. government figures are basing grave allegations against Russia on such ropy sources. That in itself speaks volumes about the deterioration in Washington’s diplomatic professionalism and political intelligence.

Secondly, the salient fact being missed in all the hullabaloo is this: Russian troops and equipment are on Russia’s sovereign territory. It is the height of absurdity for U.S. officials to demand that Russia “explain” and be “more transparent” about its own national defenses. That speaks of a hyper-arrogance among American politicians that are deforming their ability to think reasonably.

There is an analogy here with the outcry this week over Russia’s successful missile test against a Soviet-era satellite in orbit. The Biden administration condemned Russia for creating “space junk” and weaponizing space while ignoring the fact that the U.S. previously carried out the same kind of missile strike and, arguably has been trying to weaponize space since the Reagan administration’s “star wars” program during the 1980s.

In any case, the U.S. charges of Russia’s military buildup on its own territory are made all the more ridiculous when we consider the actual increase in NATO forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea region – right on Russia’s western doorstep.

In a major speech this week delivered at the Russian foreign ministry, President Putin noted again how Western powers have continually failed to register Moscow’s national security concerns over the expansion of NATO forces along Russia’s borders. He described this inability for cognition of what should be an obvious grievance as “very peculiar”.

The Kremlin has suggested that the increasing NATO offensive presence near Russia’s borders is not due to stupidity, but rather is aimed at provoking a conflict. Russia is strenuously resisting the danger of an armed confrontation, and yet the provocations continue.

Nearly two weeks ago, William Burns, the head of the CIA made a high-profile visit to Moscow during which he held discussions with senior Kremlin figures, including President Putin. We can safely assume that Burns was told in no uncertain terms that the buildup of U.S. and NATO forces near Russia’s territory is a red line that will presage a response from Russia.

But these red lines continue to be skirted by Washington and its NATO allies.

More perplexing, too, are the moves by the U.S.-backed Kiev regime to escalate the conflict in Ukraine against the ethnic Russian population in the separatist Donbas region. The ultranationalist regime has been waging a low-intensity war against the Donbas since the U.S.-backed coup in Kiev in 2014. The Americans and other NATO powers are increasing weapon supplies and military trainers to the regime, emboldening it to repudiate any peaceful settlement of the eight-year conflict.

Only last month, Pentagon chief Austin was in Kiev where he recklessly endorsed the joining of the NATO bloc by Ukraine. That is in spite of numerous warnings from Moscow that such a move would be an unacceptable destabilization.

The stepped-up war drills by NATO in the Black Sea region are inevitably leading the Kiev regime to resile from legally binding commitments to the Minsk Peace accord of 2015 – brokered by Russia, Germany and France. The release this week of diplomatic communications by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov clearly demonstrates that Germany and France are complicit in turning a blind eye to the Kiev regime’s systematic violation of the Minsk deal.

In this context, Russia is justifiably deeply wary of a confrontation exploding out of the tinderbox conditions in Ukraine and the Black Sea. Given the Russian nation’s tragic history of suffering from past military invasions, it is entirely understandable and indeed vitally prudent that the country’s formidable defenses are on high alert.

It is not for Russia to explain its troops. It is for the United States and its NATO partners to account for their wanton aggression and to desist.


https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2021/11/19/theater-absurd-pentagon-demands-russia-explain-troops-russian-soil/
There is something of the theater of absurd in American and European posturing. But it’s far from funny. It’s menacingly deranged.

Isos wrote:
OSINTtechnical
@Osinttechnical
· 9h
“Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.” https://militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/11/20/russia-preparing-to-attack-ukraine-by-late-january-ukraine-defense-intelligence-agency-chief/

Russia will attack at precise moment when time, winter and the Ukrainians will be doing their job for them?

I doubt that

Isos wrote:.....
I think Russia wouldn't invade but just push back ukrainian army from the front and oblig them to sign a piece treaty with Donbass. Second step, if it fails, could be precision attacks and air superiority over Ukraine. Final would be the invasion.

Russia went on record that if there's any intervention by them it will be of such magnitude that the Ukraine will cease to exist as a nation

That's what stopped 404s from trying anything last time

We are talking about complete no fly zone over the Ukraine, Syria style air campaign on steroids for months/years, total annihilation of anything that carries weapons including the police, partitioning the whole place in many easily manageable components and arranging for loyal locals to take political and security control over their respective colonial territories to rule as they see fit as long as Russian interests are fully adhered to

All this before any Russian land vehicle is even switched on let alone moves across the border (if they even bother at all, I think it will be strictly VKS gig)

PapaDragon wrote:We are talking about complete no fly zone over the Ukraine, Syria style air campaign on steroids for months/years, total annihilation of anything that carries weapons including the police, partitioning the whole place in many easily manageable components and arranging for loyal locals to take political and security control over their respective colonial territories to rule as they see fit as long as Russian interests are fully adhered to

Please stop fantasizing about something that is not going to happen.

What the Russians will do will depend on what is best for them at the time, though it is hardly belieavable that their operation is going to last more than a few weeks to a month and will likely be as minimal as possible to end the conflict.

PapaDragon wrote:

Isos wrote:.....
I think Russia wouldn't invade but just push back ukrainian army from the front and oblig them to sign a piece treaty with Donbass. Second step, if it fails, could be precision attacks and air superiority over Ukraine. Final would be the invasion.

Russia went on record that if there's any intervention by them it will be of such magnitude that the Ukraine will cease to exist as a nation

That's what stopped 404s from trying anything last time

We are talking about complete no fly zone over the Ukraine, Syria style air campaign on steroids for months/years, total annihilation of anything that carries weapons including the police, partitioning the whole place in many easily manageable components and arranging for loyal locals to take political and security control over their respective colonial territories to rule as they see fit as long as Russian interests are fully adhered to

All this before any Russian land vehicle is even switched on let alone moves across the border (if they even bother at all, I think it will be strictly VKS gig)

[/quote]

Most stupid thing I have heard. No offense.

Russia wouldn't want a destroyed state near its border.

We saw the results of Iraq or Afghanistan being destroyed by US and it infected neigbour states and was a total fiasco for the US.

Russians are not stupid. They learned a lot from previous wars, that's why Syrian compain is the opposite of what USSR did in afghanistan or what the US did.

Anhilating a country that didn't even attack you is also being stupidity (since Russia would position itself as the ageessed country and not the agressor and Ukraine wouldn't attack them directly).

Wasting your soldiers' lives just to make sure parasite stays attached to you is what doomed USSR

Destroyed hostile country is not a threat, functional one is

Syrian campaign is exactly what any action in the Ukraine should look like if it happens: no half assing and no pussy footing, kill everything hostile and make sure loyal proxies run the show

Keep your soldiers safe and let the aircraft do the work

PapaDragon wrote:
Wasting your soldiers' lives just to make sure parasite stays attached to you is what doomed USSR

Destroyed hostile country is not a threat, functional one is

Syrian campaign is exactly what any action in the Ukraine should look like if it happens: no half assing and no pussy footing, kill everything hostile and make sure loyal proxies run the show

Keep your soldiers safe and let the aircraft do the work

In Syria Assad had a big support and they mostly stayed in areas where Assad wasn't seen as evil and where they had local ground forces to control the areas and had population's help.


What support Donbass people have accross the rest if Ukraine ? None. That's exactly what the US tried to do in Afghanistan and Irak, put puppets at power and bomb the shit out of everyone else. Didn't work and created a huge guerilla that still kills US soldiers.

You can't control a country with some planes. Russians would need ground forces and the locals, both military and civilians are hostil to them, so they would need russian soldiers only. And Ukrainians have a lot of soviet old weapons to make it a nightmare for them on the long term.

Their plane would be good for destroying the country but that would be bad for Russia, it would loose Ukraine for ever, push them in Nato hands and that would be a messy area.

Peskov yesterday

"Secret Memo Details Turkish Special Forces’ Engagement With Ukrainian Military For Training In Unconventional Warfare"



https://southfront.org/secret-memo-details-turkish-special-forces-engagement-with-ukrainian-military-for-training-in-unconventional-warfare/

par far wrote:"Secret Memo Details Turkish Special Forces’ Engagement With Ukrainian Military For Training In Unconventional Warfare"
https://southfront.org/secret-memo-details-turkish-special-forces-engagement-with-ukrainian-military-for-training-in-unconventional-warfare/

Southfront is dogshit source, stop posting that crap, it's all butthurt fantasies

PapaDragon wrote:

par far wrote:"Secret Memo Details Turkish Special Forces’ Engagement With Ukrainian Military For Training In Unconventional Warfare"
https://southfront.org/secret-memo-details-turkish-special-forces-engagement-with-ukrainian-military-for-training-in-unconventional-warfare/

Southfront is dogshit source, stop posting that crap, it's all butthurt fantasies

You saw the link, don't click, if you don't want to see it.

Odin of Ossetia wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:(..............)

In Serbia we call it a win-win situation

That is a big change from how things were between these two back in early 2007:

https://asaland.proboards.com/thread/214/bosnia-trained-terrorists-enter-ukraine

https://asaland.proboards.com/thread/214/bosnia-trained-terrorists-enter-ukraine




So they first allow terrorists to enter and attack Russia, and now they are surprised Russia is responding?

Next step.

Isos wrote:Next step.

Ivan is the local 'East wind' agent

The chance for war in Ukraine this winter is 95 % and it's not Russias fault. Main force of escalation is the USA, because the Russia Collusion Hoax is going to implode and the Democtaric Party is loosing on all fronts (Bidens infrastructure spending, Rittenhouse verdict etc.), so they need a big distraction. An additional player is of course Ukraine, they suffer huge from Corona and their death rate is exceptional and not matched worldwide, to this problem Ukraine will also suffer from energy shortage and a lot of Ukraines will freeze their ass this winter.

The USA is escalating the rhetoric of russian incursion without any proof, so this is the pretext and excuse for ramping up the support for Ukraine and they now consider to send more and more weapons (air defense, javelin etc.). Does anybody remember how Ukraine dismissed the claim of russian troop buildup a few weeks ago...because they were not correctly instructed by their US masters and overminds.

On the other hand the aggressive rhetoric by USA and Ukraine pressures Russia now to act. The USA sends more and more troops and weapons and if Russia will not react this winter the gap closes and any further military intervention in future will be too costly. It is Russias last chance to react military without suffering too much from personel loss. If they don't react....okay there is a chance of 50 % that Ukraine government will implode latest in spring...that's even a chance.

How much should Russia take??? EVERYTHING! Ukraine and Russia are ONE! Ukrainians are anti-russian, because USA and the western world worked 30 years to make them anti-russian (for example planned Holodomor with 1 billion deaths in Ukraine bla bla). Remember how anti-russian the chechens were? Is Chechenya now part of Russia or not? So take everything, left nothing behind!!! Every square milimetre left will be used by  by Nazi forces, USA, UK (nearly the same!) for build up of forces against Russia. And if unrest will erupt in Lviv just send Ramsan Kadyrow to holiday there for a few weeks!

Sadly Ukrainians are too stupid to realize that they don't matter to western world, they are only cannon fodder not more. For western elite, above all in the USA, ALL SLAVS are stupid, degernerate , primitive subhumans only looking like european brothers, but behave like apes...all slavic nations should be aware of this!

Ukria will not be closing any military gaps against Russian for decades to come.   The yanquis can send boatloads of Javelins and other wonder waffle
and that will have squat impact.   Ukria's problem is not merely material deficit.   Its main problem is a mental deficit.

No, Russia is definitely better off not taking the bait.  It should let this toilet sink into its own excrement this winter.   The Kiev regime will not triumph over
the Donbass because the Donbass has been preparing for the last 6+ years and is getting full Russian military support in terms of intel and relevant
equipment.   That you hear nothing about this does not imply nothing is being done.    It is obvious from the tone and language coming out of Moscow
that it has not thrown the Donbass under any bus.    All the NATzO trainers in Ukria will not make it into a juggernaut just like they failed to make
Georgia into one.

This is all just the US justifying having HATO forces in the Ukraine... the Ukrainians are unable and also likely unwilling to start a conflict they know they are going to lose... even if Russia does not intervene directly, it is pretty clear that they know what they are doing, as shown in Syria, and it is pretty clear the US does not know what it is doing as shown in Syria and Iraq and Iran and Afghanistan and Yemen and everywhere else it has screwed the pooch.

In many ways I hope they do try something because that will force Russia to do what it did in Georgia and open its borders with the breakaway regions which is going to be a massive boost for the local economy in the break away regions and the potential to achieve something close to normal... which of course Kiev like Tiblisi fear the most... when they don't need you any more they are lost.