The Situation in the Ukraine. #32

^ The flood of illiterate subsistence farmers from the plains of Africa into the streets of Europe in 2015 happened for the same reason. There can be no other reason.

I think these military exercises by Russia  happen regularly . This time round they are reported to be bigger . Together with the non-ultimatum , issued by Russia regarding the NATO expansion . Of course behind closed doors , there must have been years of diplomacy between Russia and the West , without any productive outcome . So it is not surprising that Russia tried to give out a warning . But there is no indication that these military exercises , were aimed at the public . It was indeed the West that made these public and stirred up hysteria , regarding an imminent attack . Of course the intention of Russia , was a kind of gun-boat diplomacy . A low key affair , aimed at politicians , and not the public .

But the West , by this hype , is merely upping the ante . Or in other words , rejecting the non- ultimatum . This rejection is further emphasized , by stationing troops in Romania and increasing troop levels in Poland and selling F35 to Finland etc . And of course Zelensky , reiterated that Ukraine will join NATO . If it was not for the ethnic conflict in Ukraine , then stationing of NATO troops and missiles there  , would add marginally to an already unstable situation in Eastern Europe . Russia could then take reciprocal action , by stationing short range missiles there , or elsewhere in South America .

But what do with ethnic conflict ? Here it is clear , if Kiev attacked the East , then Russia will defend directly or indirectly . But what to do with the ever increasing NATO ? Iranians also think , some of them , that the economy with the West is far more important than security . They cite hardship , attributable to sanctions etc . Even harshly confronted with the cruel reality ( assassinations and terror acts.... ) , that without security , there is no prosperity ; still the Liberals and defeatist elements , take the nation into a blind alley . Security comes first and should never be bartered away , in the hope of a better economy .

lancelot wrote:

JohninMK wrote:American-made Stinger portable anti-aircraft missile systems, which arrived in Kiev today from Lithuania.

More hardware for Russia to reverse engineer once corrupt Ukrainian servicemen turn the weapons over to Russia.

They are probably going on CSTO Craigslist as we speak. Ukraine is a failed state. Ppl need money.

kvs wrote:What drivel.  The Khuyiv regime is clearly about to stage a provocation.   Calling the regime forces at the LOS "defensive" is the
height of bloody hypocrisy.   Their sole purpose is to attack the LDNR.   The pretext is utterly irrelevant.

BTW, the OSCE is clearing out and the above claims are BS.

Yes. But these reports of Ukrainian units being extra cautious could still be true. It just makes a CIA planned false flag all the more necessary and obvious.

I am worried that Scholz may be assassinated in Kiev. He has been under intense pressure not to meet Putin and to commit
to cancelling NS2 if Russia "invades" (i.e. stages an R2P mission). He is not toeing the line and would be a perfect candidate
for a false flag.

kvs wrote:I am worried that Scholz may be assassinated in Kiev.   He has been under intense pressure not to meet Putin and to commit
to cancelling NS2 if Russia "invades" (i.e. stages an R2P mission).   He is not toeing the line and would be a perfect candidate
for a false flag.

He should have left by now? Probably getting briefed in Moscow for tomorrow. Unlikely to go sightseeing as per Truss last week.

Interesting with 3 in the QRA position. Looks as if the photo caught a Su-30SM at the end of the runway.

Chris Biggers@CSBiggers · 5h

Planet imagery acquired on 11FEB2021 showed that 11 x Su-25SM had relocated to Millervo east of Luhansk. The airbase hosts the 31 IAP which has been converting to the Su-30SM from the MIG-29 since 2015. #geoint

Smile time

Benjamin@hengenahm·2h

Our map at @Cen4infoRes showing the movements of Russian military forces along Ukraines borders now has 250+ pieces of geolocated & verified footage: https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/ru

So the Americans have now abandoned Kiev, the Y have fled to Lvov

It seems they plan to make a last stand there

I am not sure how, Belarus is so packed with ground force, that they will get cut off at Lvov,

They are better off in Berlin, and even then, Kaliningrad is a thorn

Anyone (no military leaks please) want to hazard a guess as to how this plays out?
I really don't know. My current feelings as to what will happen:-

Ideally there'd be a smooth takeover of power but it won't be that smooth. But it won't be massive tank v tank battles etc either.

Azov pricks etc will do the provocation but a little after Wednesday. Russia will be mild and measured in its military response. But Kazakstan like disputes occur in numerous Ukr cities. Russia does some intervention. Azov and co scurry back to under their rocks in Lvov. Leaders get American passports.

The comedian eventually hands over to counter coup forces across the East. The Ukr army stands down for the most part due to splits in differences in loyalty

The Ukraine ends up mostly federalised. Russian forces base in the Far West eg Galicia which becomes semi autonomous but with major hostility towards Russia.

The EU becomes everless reliable but Germany/France etc realise they have to trade with Russia.
Britain acts as America's bitch. America sets up mini alliances with all the usual tossers. Much like the AUKUS arrangement.

So basically elements of 888 Georgia, elements of Kazakstan, elements of Syria .
What I can't figure out is how Russia will deal with the Central and Western Ukraine.

A pretty wild guess from me.

I thought there wasn't going to be an invasion, and if it were to be one it would be limited to just the Donbass cause that was the "smart" thing to do...

I see a lot of tap dancing from frequent users here... what's changed in 24 hrs?

If invasion will happen, it will be limited and probably punishing in nature. No occupation due to low number of Russian ground troops, but high saturation in airforce and artillery shows that Russia will strike hard and will soften anyone in the open.

Or it could be bluff as well. It's costly to Russia to have such a buildup, but then again, they have exercises in the region so it's not a total waste.
Russia is a master of maskirovka and people in Russia are not being prepared by war by media like it was before Chechen wars so they can always roll back to their bases and it will be the West and Ukraine who ended up crying wolf.

Ukraine is suffering from this even more without any shots being fired and if it was up to me (I am against full-scale war ) it would be beautiful to see it collapse economically and socially just by sheer pressure and instability.

Oligarchs are fleeing, air traffic is avoiding Ukraine, foreign capital is frozen and pulled out, Kyiv is abandoned by embassies and etc... Now, think what will happen if Ukraine will start mobilizing. EU funds also stopped, you can't buy bread with Stingers or Javelins... Or should I say, Ukrainian politics can't buy new Ferraris with military aid...

flamming_python wrote:Contemplating military action is highly premature

Things move so quickly from here on. It could be one rogue unit in the Ukrainian army that could start the exchange.

I hope not. I mean, I am all for putting them in their place, but I became less bloodthirsty I guess and simply want to see federal Ukraine with high autonomy for it's regions. Sounds like a Utopian dream at this point. Ukrainians are idiotically stubborn.

Any ground move would be idiotic and would give 404s exactly what they want

VKS, Navy and long range artillery should erase anything that resembles humanoid with a stick in it's frontal extremities across entire subcontinent over the period of several months and let locals from NAF do the legwork (there won't be much for them to do if big boys do their job right)

Syrian scenario only full size

But honestly it would still require 404s to do something to trigger this (unless something already happened)

It is obvious that Russia does not intend to occupy this failed state. The propaganda drivel from NATzO about Russia taking over Kiev
is intellectually insulting. The worst case scenario is that Russia remotely obliterates the 125,000 mostly paramilitaries on the LOS in an R2P
mission. Inside NATzO this will be deemed an invasion since details never matter to these clowns.

Even if the LDNR forces do all the fighting we will still have them called the Russian army invading Ukraine. But as the Russian ambassador
to Sweden told some local newspaper: Russia does not give a shit about western sanctions.

World Bank is pulling out of Ukraine. Not good news for Ukraine. Keep the pot cooking...

Either the Europeans bail out the Ukrainians or their economy is going to collapse.