Russian special military operation in Ukraine #3

Just my two cents, but it appears to me as if Russia is trying to fight this war on a budget. With the exception of the first few hours of the strike, we've seen nothing in terms of PGMs, the bulk of the air-force appears to be completely absent from the theatre, the majority of the equipment we've seen have been relics from the Soviet era, and the ground force presences that we see from the Russians is almost entirely consistent of Gaz Tigrs, MT-LBs and other lightly armoured personnel carriers.

The only reasons why that come to mind are:
A) They are really trying to squeeze every penny out of this conflict.
B) They are masking the true capability of their forces.

It could be both.

This is a debacle & I can't support it.
There I said it.

I still am appalled by the actions of the 404 govt agianst their ethnic minorities, western media & govts should be ashamed for creating & supporting it.

But this whole thing is playing out like a giant reverse of the 404 incursion into Donbas: the deep penetrations without clearing flanks being picked off by ambushes, the widespread civilian hostility, its like they have learned nothing from 2014, the successive 8 years & Syria.

The softly softly, attempting to minimise casualties & civilian infrastructure damage, is laudable but its getting people killed, equipment destroyed/captured & its emboldening the 404 soldiers.
Its one thing losing a few columns to ambushes if the other side is shocked into inaction/surrender by the speed of advance, getting cut-off, accurate incoming etc. but the pauses have given them time to regroup, recover from initial shock & see a heap of successful ambushes.

They might have gotten away with this sort of op instead of doing Minsk 1, it makes no sense so much later, after years of nato training/equipping/intel/C&C integration & after months of US pumping in thousands of modern ATGMs.
I had thought they were going to go into the DPR/LPR & sit on the LoC -> enforce peace in the same way the 404s didn't shell into Crimea, there seemed to be an acceptance of that, there would be some new sanctions but not the full shebang.

The solution isn't to flatten cities, massacre civilians or starve them out with long seiges, I dunno what is.
Probably should have settled for Crimea & a couple of million grateful refugees back in 2014. Maybe even just the refugees.

twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1497901723716923392?s=20&t=YrmFVzFyHmPxkVa5xAl5PA

Cheetah wrote:Just my two cents, but it appears to me as if Russia is trying to fight this war on a budget. With the exception of the first few hours of the strike, we've seen nothing in terms of PGMs, the bulk of the air-force appears to be completely absent from the theatre, the majority of the equipment we've seen have been relics from the Soviet era, and the ground force presences that we see from the Russians is almost entirely consistent of Gaz Tigrs, MT-LBs and other lightly armoured personnel carriers.

The only reasons why that come to mind are:
A) They are really trying to squeeze every penny out of this conflict.
B) They are masking the true capability of their forces.

It could be both.

I have been thinking about this as well and both your points are valid.
I want to add 2 more points to the list.

C) They suspect there might be an escalation and save the top ties stuff in reserve for Poland, UK, and the Baltic states.
D) We overestimated or Russia overinflated the amount of top tier stuff in the service. (less likely)

2 Su-25´s shot down over Kherson.

Russians driving into Kharkov like it's parade, losing Tigrs and men with no reason....

hoom wrote:This is a debacle & I can't support it.
There I said it.

I still am appalled by the actions of the 404 govt agianst their ethnic minorities, western media & govts should be ashamed for creating & supporting it.

But this whole thing is playing out like a giant reverse of the 404 incursion into Donbas: the deep penetrations without clearing flanks being picked off by ambushes, the widespread civilian hostility, its like they have learned nothing from 2014, the successive 8 years & Syria.

The softly softly, attempting to minimise casualties & civilian infrastructure damage, is laudable but its getting people killed, equipment destroyed/captured & its emboldening the 404 soldiers.
Its one thing losing a few columns to ambushes if the other side is shocked into inaction/surrender by the speed of advance, getting cut-off, accurate incoming etc. but the pauses have given them time to regroup, recover from initial shock & see a heap of successful ambushes.

They might have gotten away with this sort of op instead of doing Minsk 1, it makes no sense so much later, after years of nato training/equipping/intel/C&C integration & after months of US pumping in thousands of modern ATGMs.
I had thought they were going to go into the DPR/LPR & sit on the LoC -> enforce peace in the same way the 404s didn't shell into Crimea, there seemed to be an acceptance of that, there would be some new sanctions but not the full shebang.

The solution isn't to flatten cities, massacre civilians or starve them out with long seiges, I dunno what is.
Probably should have settled for Crimea & a couple of million grateful refugees back in 2014. Maybe even just the refugees.

They won’t get what they want at negotiations now unless they turn Ukraine into Syria or Yemen first.

With that and the level of sanctions being applied, and the absolute unlikelyhood that Putin will attempt total war/moving to a full war economy or cutting off energy revenue by turning off gas etc to Europe and oil to USA, means that at this point the jig is basically up.

Expect the Russian market to be in free fall tomorrow and the likelihood of unrest in Russia to increase in coming weeks and months.

Putin has shot himself in the foot, killed what legacy he had and most likely hastened the end of his government unless repression is ramped up. Lukashenka’s days are numbered now too, IMO.

Russian VDV advances trough Bucha, Kiev region - ASB news.


Destroyed orc 2S1 in Nikolaev.

One road left from Mariupol


LPR forces in Stanitsa Luganskaya.

T90A near Symu, they say it was an RPG hit in its side.

Russian forces are in Kupyansk, the local police is accompanying russian vehicles.

Meanwhile the police in Kiev abandonded parts of the city because of the large number of dumbasses with weapons.

So after zelensky not turning up in Gomel today, he then decided to call Lukashenko, possibly wanting safety guarantee. And now it seems it's all back on but notice the wording Ukrainian delegation, while prior to this it was zelensky going. Maybe lukashenko told him that if he fears coming to Gomel send a delegation instead, which looks like it. We could be seeing some agreement in the near future


Ukraine's Delegation Heading to Gomel Region in Belarus for Talks With Russia - Putin's Aide Says

Azov base in Donskoye has fallen.

Russian troops in Borodyanka, west of Kiev.

Racialised double-standards

This is for PapaDragon(regarding the sanctions).

I hope everyone watches this in full, they talk the sanctions, how the west has thrown everything at Russia.

At the last 10-15 minutes, they have Gonzalo Lira on, he is from Kharkov but is stuck in Kiev.

He makes some very good points:

The stuff you see on Twitter is just nonsense, he is getting reports from people on the ground in Kiev and from Kharkov that Russia is advancing very fast and winning.

Russia is not using its 1st tier military, Russia is using its 2nd tier military. He says that the 1st tier are being saved in case if the US does something stupid and the 1st tier army will be used when needed.

He said that this is a brilliant invasion that is soft because it is not harming any civilians and is going smoothly(his words not mine.)

There is little to no panic in the civilian population, the people are leaving because of the forced conscription.

The notion, the idea that Russia does not have Air Superiority over Ukraine is nonsense. Russia fully controls Ukrainian Air Space.

This is all his words.

I HIGHLY RECOMMEND EVERYONE WATCH THIS EVEN THE TROLLS. IF YOU DON'T WANT TO WATCH THE WHOLE THING WATCH THE LAST 20 MINUTES










To the people that love Russia. This is a time when we dig deep into our hearts and think of Vladimir the Great and great Russian warriors like him, when we think of Russian Saints and pray and be strong.

Ukrainian delegation goes to Gomel for negotiations with the Russian side at Zelenskyy’s initiative, for ceasefire talks  — Belpresscenter

Russia’s two big conditions stay the same.

- Complete demilitarization
- Proclaim neutral status


This should be Zelensky's last chance. If he doesn't agree to Russia's demands, time for Russia to put all of it's capabilities into crushing this regime and demilitarize Ukraine themselves. No more half-assed measures, worrying about civilian casualties or upsetting some local population. I mean, all out war on these bandits! Start sending reserves in as well, Russia needs to really uptick the amount of soldiers in Ukraine. Increase air force use, drones, big missiles, your best tanks and rockets, cut off electricity and water, start using cyber warfare and **** up their communications etc... Time to crush these weasels if they reject Russia's demands. Stop trying to play nice with them, enough is enough.

twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1497914392209330176?s=20&t=B9VFDT-jzqRq_X3DGbdWCw

Carnage reportedly in Bucha

Serberus wrote:twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1497914392209330176?s=20&t=B9VFDT-jzqRq_X3DGbdWCw

Carnage reportedly in Bucha

What the...

The strategy of Putin makes sense, I was angry yesterday seeing images

But now it makes sense, 50,000-70,000 in Ukraine

150,000-200,000 around Belarus to make sure NATO does not invade Belarus or Russia in Kaliningrad

If Russia needs to go to war with NATO the airforce and army must be reserved for that war,

Also the reason we havent see s400 or major Russian air defense go active, they are waiting for NATO

https://www.rt.com/russia/550758-truss-russia-nato-conflict-ukraine/

UK warns of Russia-NATO conflict

Foreign Secretary says West should be ‘prepared for a very long haul’ in Ukraine and a potential clash between Moscow and the military bloc

This explains the Russian war strategy, NATO could become engaged with Russia

It also explains the soft handed approach, they are misleading NATO,

Putin might be forcing the decisive confrontation , if it comes to war with NATO

The amount of western dead will end the world order , coupled with economic losses and human life

If NATO comes into Belarus or Kaliningrad, moving into Ukraine was the right move

Tactical nukes will be used in 3rd states, Russia knew that and needed a buffer zone for tactical nukes

They keep their strategic arsenal as a last resort for hits on main land russia

If NATO goes to Kaliningrad Russia will enter the baltics

Arkanghelsk wrote:The strategy of Putin makes sense, I was angry yesterday seeing images

But now it makes sense, 50,000-70,000 in Ukraine

150,000-200,000 around Belarus to make sure NATO does not invade Belarus or Russia in Kaliningrad

If Russia needs to go to war with NATO the airforce and army must be reserved for that war,

Also the reason we havent see s400 or major Russian air defense go active, they are waiting for NATO

You are being delusional here. Even Putin said 10 days ago, that Russian forces are no match to NATO ones. He said that plain and simple.

If this is going to be a long war, it posses a cost so high for both Ukraine and Russia that it would take years to recover from it.

So whatever the solution will be, make it fast!!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497920761071296516?t=DZjkg3AteuVRcXPDnxEHTA&s=19

B3s are not doing well...

Arkanghelsk wrote:The strategy of Putin makes sense, I was angry yesterday seeing images

But now it makes sense, 50,000-70,000 in Ukraine

150,000-200,000 around Belarus to make sure NATO does not invade Belarus or Russia in Kaliningrad

If Russia needs to go to war with NATO the airforce and army must be reserved for that war,

Also the reason we havent see s400 or major Russian air defense go active, they are waiting for NATO

Time will tell but I don’t think this is enough to meet their objectives militarily or to secure what they want in negotiations. If it’s not then it’s a complete failure.

And the damage that will have been done to Russia and it’s economy, it’s reputation and political stability will be a hammer blow for decades to come and could even result in a coup or revolution and mass repression