Russia and economic war by the west

As for Canadian tar sands, to increase the production of oil, the fastest method would be to build the Keystone XL pipeline and send the tar sands oil to the US refineries in the Gulf region which used to process Venezuelan heavy oil. This would allow those refineries to continue to operate and solve the US diesel and aviation gas shortage. Some of the diesel could be exported to Europe as well. But it would never be enough to replace the Russian oil.

The only viable replacement for Russian oil is the Middle Eastern oil. And banning Russian oil from the world market would result in a situation similar to the Arab Oil embargo. How can you replace the second largest world exporter of oil, with similar exports to #1 Saudi Arabia? The whole concept is bonkers.

The easiest way is for Europe to buy oil from the Middle East and Russia to send their oil to India and China. It will be more expensive for everyone though. The reason the exports are configured this way right now is, well, just look at a map.

And even if this was done you cannot simply cut oil purchases by Europe from Russia. A lot of the oil refining capacity in Eastern Europe is deep inland and directly fed oil by pipeline via Russia. You would need to add port capacity and connect those pipelines to the ports. Or build new refineries close to shore. Neither option can be done quickly.

If European oil imports from Russia crash and they decide to go into fuel rationing you will also see European exports of gasoline to the US crash and this will immediately cause US gas prices to spike. The US does not produce enough gasoline to meet its own internal requirements. The US exports diesel and imports gasoline from Europe.

caveat emptor wrote:One of the most pressing issues will be finalizing LNG trains and petrochemical projects they are working on in Far East and North. Hopefully, they will manage to finish АГХК, which is built by SINOPEC and SIBUR. Supposed to be biggest basic polymer factory in the world. Also, it is connected to АГПЗ that is in finishing stages. Far East LNG is frozen ( Rosneft amd Exxon). Still not surenwhat is going on with NOVATEK Yamal LNG. Those are big projects that were supposed to be a base for reindustrialization of Far East and North regions. Next 6 months to a year will be a good barometers on how will Ru economy be able to cope with sanctions and what are the losses going to be.
@ GarryB I don't agree with you that selling commodities to India with big discount is completely positive for Russia. Good thing is that they should have buyers, bad thing is that they will lose substantial amount of extra profits. India is buying said commodities not because of good heart, but because of discounts. I hope that with passing time discounts will shrink substantially.
Also, i hope to see soon if there will be a change of direction of whole economic framework of the country. Now that cat is out of the bag, they need to close loopholes and start to tax oligarchs with progressive tax rates.Give them tax breaks if they invest. Neoliberal policies of last 20+ years need to be changed.

With such high prices it is possible to give big discounts and earn a lot. Oil at US$ 113.00 today, even with a discount of US$ 30 per barrel, US$ 83 would be left over, which is already a highly profitable value. Remembering that the Russian budget works with oil at US$ 45.

ludovicense wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:One of the most pressing issues will be finalizing LNG trains and petrochemical projects they are working on in Far East and North. Hopefully, they will manage to finish АГХК, which is built by SINOPEC and SIBUR. Supposed to be biggest basic polymer factory in the world. Also, it is connected to АГПЗ that is in finishing stages. Far East LNG is frozen ( Rosneft amd Exxon). Still not surenwhat is going on with NOVATEK Yamal LNG. Those are big projects that were supposed to be a base for reindustrialization of Far East and North regions. Next 6 months to a year will be a good barometers on how will Ru economy be able to cope with sanctions and what are the losses going to be.
@ GarryB I don't agree with you that selling commodities to India with big discount is completely positive for Russia. Good thing is that they should have buyers, bad thing is that they will lose substantial amount of extra profits. India is buying said commodities not because of good heart, but because of discounts. I hope that with passing time discounts will shrink substantially.
Also, i hope to see soon if there will be a change of direction of whole economic framework of the country. Now that cat is out of the bag, they need to close loopholes and start to tax oligarchs with progressive tax rates.Give them tax breaks if they invest. Neoliberal policies of last 20+ years need to be changed.

With such high prices it is possible to give big discounts and earn a lot. Oil at US$ 113.00 today, even with a discount of US$ 30 per barrel, US$ 83 would be left over, which is already a highly profitable value. Remembering that the Russian budget works with oil at US$ 45.

Yes, right now. But many economists predict global recession in next two years. Oil can easily colapse sub $50, in that case. They have to start changing economic system yesterday, as realities are completely different. You don't want to come in situation to sell assets at fire sale prices.
Russian economic model stalled in 2013 with high oil prices. Post 2014 oil colapse, they did improve on some things, but not enough. It is still a very neoliberal economic system that favors big players and SMEs

ludovicense wrote:With such high prices it is possible to give big discounts and earn a lot. Oil at US$ 113.00 today, even with a discount of US$ 30 per barrel, US$ 83 would be left over, which is already a highly profitable value. Remembering that the Russian budget works with oil at US$ 45.

Initially they were offering discounts of $30 USD to India but now it is more like $15 USD. Also heard that Western traders were profiting from most of the margin but that seems be getting taken care of right now.

caveat emptor wrote:Yes, right now. But many economists predict global recession in next two years. Oil can easily colapse sub $50, in that case. They have to start changing economic system yesterday, as realities are completely different. You don't want to come in situation to sell assets at fire sale prices.
Russian economic model stalled in 2013 with high proces. Post 2014 oil colapse, they did improve on some things, but not enough. It is still a very neoliberal economic system that favors big players and SMEs

Lol. No. If anything you will need more energy for the next stage of the economic cycle. Demand destruction stopped now that the lockdowns in the West stopped. And now that they are forcing people back to work at their desks you will see demand increase not decrease. The oil demand you saw a couple years back with lockdowns is probably about as close to rock bottom as you can get. The only way to get demand destruction will be with high oil prices. And the only way price would come back down to those levels would be with extra oil production. But no one seems to be stepping up production. Right now you are seeing artificially low price because Biden is draining the strategic oil reserve. Once that gets drained you will see oil price back up.

caveat emptor wrote:Yes, right now. But many economists predict global recession in next two years. Oil can easily colapse sub $50, in that case. They have to start changing economic system yesterday, as realities are completely different. You don't want to come in situation to sell assets at fire sale prices.
Russian economic model stalled in 2013 with high proces. Post 2014 oil colapse, they did improve on some things, but not enough. It is still a very neoliberal economic system that favors big players and SMEs

Lol. No. If anything you will need more energy for the next stage of the economic cycle. Demand destruction stopped now that the lockdowns in the West stopped. And now that they are forcing people back to work at their desks you will see demand increase not decrease. The oil demand you saw a couple years back with lockdowns is probably about as close to rock bottom as you can get. The only way to get demand destruction will be with high oil prices. And the only way price would come back down to those levels would be with extra oil production. But no one seems to be stepping up production. Right now you are seeing artificially low price because Biden is draining the strategic oil reserve. Once that gets drained you will see oil price back up.

I agree with you, unless we get a global recession due to inflation and CBs draining liquidity from the system. It will not be deep, but oil price will decline, nonetheless. 
But, that is another point. I just, really, hope that new economic model of Russia will be substantially different than it was/is now. I'm not sure i would be willing to put my house on it, though.
You can't teach old dog new tricks.

@ GarryB I don't agree with you that selling commodities to India with big discount is completely positive for Russia. Good thing is that they should have buyers, bad thing is that they will lose substantial amount of extra profits. India is buying said commodities not because of good heart, but because of discounts.

Discounts compared to what India normally pays, Russia is still getting more money from India than they were getting from the EU.

The shift has been from Russia sending cheap gas and oil to subsidise the EU and the west to them sending cheap gas and oil to the rest of the world and subsidising the east as well as India and Africa etc etc.

The west can pay more... the west wasn't buying Russian energy to help Russia... they were helping themselves to cheap energy and their economies benefited from that low cost energy they enjoyed because it helped make them more competitive in the international markets.

Well now their indian and chinese and other rivals will be enjoying cheap energy instead and as a double whammy the EU is going to have to pay a lot more for the energy it gets and uses now.

It was all Americas decision, the Russians and the Soviets sold cheap gas to Europe all through the cold war... even the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan didn't stop the gas... but now the west is going to cut it off themselves... how dumb are they?

Will not be long before Russia can pump the gas currently going to the EU to China instead... gas is much cleaner and much more efficient than coal so China might switch from coal to gas which will seriously reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but then Europe will need to replace the lack of gas and it will likely be coal that fills that gap so their emissions targets will be rather harder to meet.

Even with 20-30% discounts on current oil prices at $100 per barrel for oil that means $60-70 per barrel... it gives them a good profit and helps allay fears of the risk involved in buying Russian gas and oil because the west could decide to steal their money too, or hit them with sanctions... but that will lead to companies around the world taking their money out of the west where it is clearly not safe and start trading in their own currency which will be enormously dangerous for the US... but their own actions are making it not just more likely but actually necessary.

Also, i hope to see soon if there will be a change of direction of whole economic framework of the country. Now that cat is out of the bag, they need to close loopholes and start to tax oligarchs with progressive tax rates.Give them tax breaks if they invest. Neoliberal policies of last 20+ years need to be changed.

It is the tax loopholes that are the problem and are ruthlessly exploited by the super rich to avoid paying their share. They don't need a higher tax rate, that is just bullshit... a 10% rate on someone earning 10K per year is 1K in tax which is a decent contribution, or a billionaire earning 10 million a year then ten percent one million dollars per year in tax.

Saying the poor person should only pay 500 per year (5% or half) and the rich person should pay 2 million dollars a year or 20% or double makes no difference when the billionaire hires accountants who buy and sell companies that lose money so he can claim all those two million dollars per year back in rebates or other loopholes.

The point is that despite the higher tax rate the rich guy still ends up paying less... rather than make rich people pay more let they pay the same rate and pay more because they are earning more.

Yes, right now. But many economists predict global recession in next two years. Oil can easily colapse sub $50, in that case.

With people wanting to travel now that Covid is seen as less of an issue I don't think oil will drop for some time... especially with the west trying to sanction the second largest supplier... prices never drop on products in short supply.

Initially they were offering discounts of $30 USD to India but now it is more like $15 USD. Also heard that Western traders were profiting from most of the margin but that seems be getting taken care of right now.

One article suggested the Indian companies were buying oil from their western traders who were buying Russian oil at discounted prices but pocketing the discount themselves and making the Indian companies pay market price... which is a warning to everyone not to buy through western middle men because they will screw you every time.

New Zealand is not a huge market for large volumes of hunting ammunition so we don't buy Russian ammo from Russian companies, we buy from a broker in Germany who buys in bulk and then splits the ammo into the various lots and sends them to markets saving money by bulk buying and making a good profit despite the ammo still being relatively cheap to the end user.

Right now we can't get Russian ammo because Germany are a bunch of .

But, that is another point. I just, really, hope that new economic model of Russia will be substantially different than it was/is now. I'm not sure i would be willing to put my house on it, though.
You can't teach old dog new tricks.

Amusing the economic growth they have had over the last 20 years and you think their system is broken?

They have only been capitalists for 30 years and the west already sees them as a mortal threat... they must be doing something right... and no stalin purges or forced labour to achieve it either... just strip away the extra baggage and dead weight and all of a sudden they are actually doing rather well despite the hostile actions of the west attempting to crush them which on most countries is normally very effective.

Russias history as a colonial power was unique in the sense that its colonies often had a better living standard than Russia did... and they still complained.

No wonder it is doing so well since they are gone.

The UK will revoke the recognized status of the Moscow Stock Exchange
Published:Apr 19, 2022 12:46am GMT

Further info soon.

Yandex Translate from Spanish

https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/427404-reino-unido-revocara-estatus-reconocido-bolsa-moscu

GarryB wrote:

@ GarryB I don't agree with you that selling commodities to India with big discount is completely positive for Russia. Good thing is that they should have buyers, bad thing is that they will lose substantial amount of extra profits. India is buying said commodities not because of good heart, but because of discounts.

The shift has been from Russia sending cheap gas and oil to subsidise the EU and the west to them sending cheap gas and oil to the rest of the world and subsidising the east as well as India and Africa etc etc.

The west can pay more... the west wasn't buying Russian energy to help Russia... they were helping themselves to cheap energy and their economies benefited from that low cost energy they enjoyed because it helped make them more competitive in the international markets.

Well now their indian and chinese and other rivals will be enjoying cheap energy instead and as a double whammy the EU is going to have to pay a lot more for the energy it gets and uses now.

It was all Americas decision, the Russians and the Soviets sold cheap gas to Europe all through the cold war... even the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan didn't stop the gas... but now the west is going to cut it off themselves... how dumb are they?

Will not be long before Russia can pump the gas currently going to the EU to China instead... gas is much cleaner and much more efficient than coal so China might switch from coal to gas which will seriously reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but then Europe will need to replace the lack of gas and it will likely be coal that fills that gap so their emissions targets will be rather harder to meet.

Even with 20-30% discounts on current oil prices at $100 per barrel for oil that means $60-70 per barrel... it gives them a good profit and helps allay fears of the risk involved in buying Russian gas and oil because the west could decide to steal their money too, or hit them with sanctions... but that will lead to companies around the world taking their money out of the west where it is clearly not safe and start trading in their own currency which will be enormously dangerous for the US... but their own actions are making it not just more likely but actually necessary.

Also, i hope to see soon if there will be a change of direction of whole economic framework of the country. Now that cat is out of the bag, they need to close loopholes and start to tax oligarchs with progressive tax rates.Give them tax breaks if they invest. Neoliberal policies of last 20+ years need to be changed.

It is the tax loopholes that are the problem and are ruthlessly exploited by the super rich to avoid paying their share. They don't need a higher tax rate, that is just bullshit... a 10% rate on someone earning 10K per year is 1K in tax which is a decent contribution, or a billionaire earning 10 million a year then ten percent one million dollars per year in tax.

Saying the poor person should only pay 500 per year (5% or half) and the rich person should pay 2 million dollars a year or 20% or double makes no difference when the billionaire hires accountants who buy and sell companies that lose money so he can claim all those two million dollars per year back in rebates or other loopholes.

The point is that despite the higher tax rate the rich guy still ends up paying less... rather than make rich people pay more let they pay the same rate and pay more because they are earning more.

Yes, right now. But many economists predict global recession in next two years. Oil can easily colapse sub $50, in that case.

With people wanting to travel now that Covid is seen as less of an issue I don't think oil will drop for some time... especially with the west trying to sanction the second largest supplier...  prices never drop on products in short supply.

But, that is another point. I just, really, hope that new economic model of Russia will be substantially different than it was/is now. I'm not sure i would be willing to put my house on it, though.
You can't teach old dog new tricks.

Amusing the economic growth they have had over the last 20 years and you think their system is broken?

Let's get something straight. EU is paying market price for oil. Oil is a global commodity and you can't get lower prices, unless they sign lomg term deals, like Rosneft did with China. EU never had such deal with Russia, so it was always market price. Only good thing, for both Russia amd EU is that oil is delivered through pipelimes to a large degree, which simplifies logistics and lowers cost. Whole Russian commodity export was geared toward EU and changing export direction will eb a painful process. Gas is amotjer story, as they were signing long term contracts, because it is not globalized ( now, partially, is due to LNG) and due to nonexistent gas pipelines from main production fields. 
Before you jump the gun and tell me about PoS, let's not forget that Bovanenkovo Yamal fields don't have pipelines leading to east atm. This is why i said, in my earlier post, that i hope they'll manage to finish big LNG projects in the north, which will ensure them to export extra gas regardless of geography. 
I agree that current oil price increase is due to short supply, but very high oil price has been found to lead to recession. Combined with QT done by CBs, especially FED, recession risk is there and relatively probable. 
As for Russia growth in last 20 years, bulk of it was before 2014 oil price collapse. As i pointed, even in 2013, with high oil price, GDP growth was below 2%. 
Considering all the natural wealth Russia possess and human capital, economy didn't perform well. 
Future has to bring more equitable economic system. I'm not sure present economic policies and system will lead to that. 
I can assure you that majority of Russians see that and not happy with current system. 
One more thing, as a Russophile and someone that traveled there and is interested in investing in the country, i hope that current systemic problems can be solved peacefully and through institutions. Russia had more than fair share of revolutions and coups in last 100+ years.

I don't see Putin and most of the people around him as an answer for this next step. I give credit for all that he did so far, especially, stabilizing country amd institutions in hard times post 90's depression and jumpstarting economy. I beleive new blood and ideas are needed, as FP noticed he is not ready to accept his own mistakes. Is it because of his age or length of time he spent in power is futile discussion. What matters are end results. 
Last paragraph was written only because some members of the forum equalize him to Russia and vice versa, which is a dangerous fallacy imo.

The UK tax service intends to deprive the Moscow Exchange of the status of a recognized, 19.04.2022.

The UK tax service intends to deprive the Moscow Exchange of the status of a recognized stock exchange.

The British Revenue Service intends to revoke the status of a recognized stock exchange from the Moscow Exchange, follows from the statement of the department.

The Revenue and Customs Administration proposes to remove the status of a recognized stock exchange from the Moscow Exchange, limiting access to certain preferential treatment in the UK for future investments in securities on the Moscow Exchange.

At the same time, access to benefits for existing investments will remain unchanged, the department added.

The status of a recognized stock exchange is given for tax purposes to qualify stock markets. Securities traded on recognized exchanges enjoy some tax benefits. If the Moscow Exchange is deprived of this status, then in the future investors will not have access to such benefits, but existing investments will be protected.

Shares on the Moscow Exchange itself did not react to these plans and continue to lose a little more than three percent.

https://ria.ru/20220419/birzha-1784324817.html

Let's get something straight. EU is paying market price for oil. Oil is a global commodity and you can't get lower prices, unless they sign lomg term deals, like Rosneft did with China.

The reason the US freedom gas goes to Asia instead of Europe is because gas is more expensive in Asia than in Europe.

Thanks to changes like EU demands on all sorts of things it is now profitable for the US to ship gas to Europe.

The European market for oil was the same, the price was different.

Not going forward it wont be.

EU never had such deal with Russia, so it was always market price.

Long term contracts led to lower prices than paid elsewhere... as you would expect... that is part of the point of long term contracts.

Only good thing, for both Russia amd EU is that oil is delivered through pipelimes to a large degree, which simplifies logistics and lowers cost.

Oil not so much but pumping gas without having to liquify it for shipping and then turn it back into gas to deliver by pipe is much much cheaper... like 3 to 4 times cheaper.

Whole Russian commodity export was geared toward EU and changing export direction will eb a painful process.

Not dangerously painful and actually beneficial.... being able to pump gas onto a ship and convert it to liquid form means sending it anywhere around the world becomes an option... as proven by US ships that changed direction when prices changed so they could sell to the country that earned them the biggest profit.

Gas is amotjer story, as they were signing long term contracts, because it is not globalized ( now, partially, is due to LNG) and due to nonexistent gas pipelines from main production fields.

The EU has decided to try to screw the Russians even harder than normal by demanding spot price auctions so they can buy extra gas when it is cheap and then use stored gas when the price goes up.

Their obvious problem is that Russia does not have to sell get it does not have contracts for and all EU demands to send gas this winter when there were no extra contracts meant Russia didn't send any extra gas and instead topped up their own local storage sites.

I agree that current oil price increase is due to short supply, but very high oil price has been found to lead to recession.

Russia has a lot of new technologies to develop and equipment and markets to replace... they have reserves to invest and they will be using some, which is going to boost the economy... and boost it with useful things like production and R & D, and not hedge fund managers or other western BS.

As for Russia growth in last 20 years, bulk of it was before 2014 oil price collapse. As i pointed, even in 2013, with high oil price, GDP growth was below 2%.

But it was positive growth despite significant and widespread sanctions imposed upon it by the entire west...

GDP is overrated... which is why the west loves to use it as a measure of an economy... can you honestly say Russias economy is smaller than the UKs economy?

If that is so why is the entire west so reticent to fight Russia... that seems to be the whole purpose of HATO.

Considering all the natural wealth Russia possess and human capital, economy didn't perform well.

Or it simply isn't a good indicator of what an economy is and how it is actually performing...

Future has to bring more equitable economic system. I'm not sure present economic policies and system will lead to that.
I can assure you that majority of Russians see that and not happy with current system.

Well they are in for a shock then because western policies lead straight off a cliff with the rich becoming super rich and the middle class slipping into the poverty region of the economy.

I don't see Putin and most of the people around him as an answer for this next step. I give credit for all that he did so far, especially, stabilizing country amd institutions in hard times post 90's depression and jumpstarting economy. I beleive new blood and ideas are needed, as FP noticed he is not ready to accept his own mistakes. Is it because of his age or length of time he spent in power is futile discussion. What matters are end results.
Last paragraph was written only because some members of the forum equalize him to Russia and vice versa, which is a dangerous fallacy imo.

Putin was the only thing stopping Russia becoming what the Ukraine became before the Russian invasion... to say he is not the right man moving forward suggests you know what needs to be done and think he wont do it... it is also interesting that the entire west are in step with what you are saying... they want him gone too but because he is not incompetent and they want someone incompetent in charge so they can do what they do and what they did in the 1990s to Russia.

People who say Putin must go never seem to be clear about why or who should replace him... which always makes replacing him a bad idea in my opinion.

Would Medvedev have handled this war better do you think?

The status of a recognized stock exchange is given for tax purposes to qualify stock markets. Securities traded on recognized exchanges enjoy some tax benefits. If the Moscow Exchange is deprived of this status, then in the future investors will not have access to such benefits, but existing investments will be protected.

Shares on the Moscow Exchange itself did not react to these plans and continue to lose a little more than three percent.

Well perhaps Russia should revoke recognition of the London Stock exchange, and seize the shares and bonds of any UK investors... if it is not a stock exchange then it has no responsibilities to any investors from that country.

Or they can come up with something smarter and more calculated to hurt the UK over this.

April 15 came and went.

Seems like Russia is providing gas free of charge... on the downlow.

Delay payments...

Sad but well... always remember, when stressed with noise, think of Putin, think...

ATLASCUB wrote:April 15 came and went.

Seems like Russia is providing gas free of charge... on the downlow.

Delay payments...

Sad but well... always remember, when stressed with noise, think of Putin, think...

A lot is being provided through Hungary at the moment, Orban visited Putin shortly before the war to arrange extra deliveries - and the Hungarians have already said that they would accept paying in roubles

So. Come to your own conclusions

Need to confirm this but not unexpected following serious blowback on the US from the ME in particular.

US clearly doesn't want the blame for starving populations (Russian customers) and would rather try to deflect it onto Russia for stopping Ukrainian exports (EU customers). Plus all those customers would have to be sanctions busters due to need.


The_Real_Fly
@The_Real_Fly
·
13h
US: RUSSIA'S SANCTIONS DO NOT APPLY TO AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS.

I do not know why these people still think Russia "needs" to export its energy to them.
It is like the US thinking China "needs" them to buy their shit.
As if the Chinese cannot consume the goods themselves. They only sell in the condition of getting something of value in return.
If you sanction or block trade of all relevant things into Russia, what is the point of selling anything to these people in the first place?

And the Russian economy will not implode. Most energy extracted in Russia is consumed in Russia. And exports vary. But typically are like 30% of production. And, no, Russia has other possible customers. And, no, the Russian economy is not just energy exports. Heck, Maduro is still around, and they had problems feeding themselves. Venezuelan GDP contracted by 40%. He is still around. Russia is large enough the situation will never get to the same point, and China is still available for trade, and shares a border with Russia. Sanctions are BS. When have they ever led to decrease in military spending? Quite the opposite. All sanctioned countries spend a huge amount on the military and can justify it more easily to their own population. Once South African economy stopped being sanctioned their MIC imploded.

JohninMK wrote:@The_Real_Fly
US: RUSSIA'S SANCTIONS DO NOT APPLY TO AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS.

Nice US doublespeak here. US sanctions do not apply to Russian agricultural exports they mean.
Except Russia already said they are freezing export of certain goods. And it includes things like wheat.
And unfriendly countries will be bumped off to the bottom of the list to be sure. Well they did not say that yet but they did say CIS countries would be restricted to export quotas where they would get similar quota as last year. So these countries won't be used to funnel Russia's food outside the country into unfriendly nations.

maybe we need a new thread to figure out what size a population and mix of economy do you need to be self-sufficient
France is pretty close 70 mil ..... Russia 140mil
I reckon 100mil is ok .....

plenty of land for farming .... energy ..... engineering base .... etc

you start to rapidly get a shortlist of .... USA, Russia, China, Canada? .... France ..... Germany .... Brazil (one day)
hence US hatred of Russia

my other favourite list is the G7 ....
is it just me .... but 3 honorary members of this esteemed club of 7 started WW2 ..... Germany, Japan and Italy

On Putin I think he is a guy that knows his limitations and surrounds himself with people who can cover his shortfalls

Personally I think he wants to shift to the Security Council - but first he had to fix the mess Gorbachov left behind
ie 10-15 mil Russians stranded outside Russia in Ukraine (work in progress)
( interestingly there are 4-5 mil in Kazhakstan .... too ... watch the US try and exploit that next - yes )

Russians have never forgiven Gorbachov for that

ie clear the decks for his successor ....

Gorbachov is largely loathed in Russia for leaving Russians stranded
his funeral won't have a lot of attendees I would think

Western economic delusions are a manifestation of their narcissism. China's GDP growth has been driven by internal consumption
since the 1990s. Sure, exports help. But they don't make or break China.

Russia's GDP growth is also driven by internal consumption and this was true even during the 1990s. It was never the oil and gas
banana republic that every western prat projects it to be. Even now as it is fully clear that the sanctions have failed because
they were based on the wrong assumptions, we have doubling down with the same inanity.

The collective west fell a victim to its own propaganda campaign.
It is the reason behind their inability to strike Russia really hard.
They must do something to encourage their own spoiled ego, still know that hitting serious will ricochette.
That is why we will witness idiocies like mixing Russkie oil with another one, pretending that if 51% is non-Russian then it is not Russian at all
For years, Ukro was buying Russian coal, and what is even better, most of it was from Donbas.
It was loaded on ships at Novorossiysk coal terminal, pretending to be anything other than it was
But the bakshish was placed in the right pockets, invoices were fine, so why one should testify about the direction the ship came from?
A comedy show could not play that, lacking imagination big enough to figure that shit out

Russian food outlets will replace departed foreign ones, Putin said
Putin said that import substitution of food outlets will improve the quality of service for Russians.



Russian food outlets will replace departed foreign enterprises in the domestic market, this will lead to an increase in the quality of service for Russians, said Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"If they leave, then indeed - opportunities open up, the market will be freed. I am 100% sure that the replacement of foreign owners and manufacturers will lead to an improvement in the quality of service for our citizens," Putin said at a meeting of the supervisory board of the presidential platform "Russia is the land of opportunity.

In addition, according to the president, many foreign catering enterprises use Russian products: "by 50%, by 60%, and some by almost 90%." "In any case, we will support the development of this type of activity. This applies precisely to the area that is in demand every day. Everyone wants to eat every day, and more than once a day," he concluded.


[size=30]During the conversation, Putin became interested in Bashkir fast food, jokingly asked if the entrepreneurs make delivery, and promised to still try these dishes.[/size]



https://ria.ru/20220420/obschepit-1784492655.html

NATzO is the clown show of clown shows. They are, Orwell style, redefining bankruptcy as the phony "default" of Russia
since it is paying in rubles. Neither is there an actual default, nor is any such "default" any sort of bankruptcy.

India continues to purchase copious amount of oil from Russia despite threats from the West.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-doubling-down-on-russian-oil-buys-despite-us-warnings-report-2903324

The major issue in Russia-India trade is putting in place a payment mechanism. Setting up new payment mechanisms is really complex. Banks need new electronic systems, negotiations about exchange rates, cybersecurity audits, laws likely need to be changed in both countries, delivery mechanisms agreed upon.

An alternate payment system will also threaten the US$ by setting a precedent for countries to deal with another using their own currency. Anglo-Saxons killed Gadaffi for trying to do that once.

Gazputin wrote:maybe we need a new thread to figure out what size a population and mix of economy do you need to be self-sufficient
France is pretty close 70 mil ..... Russia 140mil
I reckon 100mil is ok .....

plenty of land for farming .... energy ..... engineering base .... etc

you start to rapidly get a shortlist of .... USA, Russia, China, Canada? .... France ..... Germany .... Brazil (one day)
hence US hatred of Russia

my other favourite list is the G7 ....
is it just me .... but 3 honorary members of this esteemed club of 7 started WW2 ..... Germany, Japan and Italy

On Putin I think he is a guy that knows his limitations and surrounds himself with people who can cover his shortfalls

Personally I think he wants to shift to the Security Council - but first he had to fix the mess Gorbachov left behind
ie 10-15 mil Russians stranded outside Russia in Ukraine (work in progress)
( interestingly there are 4-5 mil in Kazhakstan .... too ... watch the US try and exploit that next - yes )

Russians have never forgiven Gorbachov for that

ie clear the decks for his successor  ....

Gorbachov is largely loathed in Russia for leaving Russians stranded
his funeral won't have a lot of attendees I would think

You can be self-sufficient with the population of Turkmenistan if you want

But your capabilities will be limited by the technological capacities of your national industries, which is related to population size, education levels and previous investment
And also by the size of your domestic market - again related to population levels and the diversity of your economy. The larger internal markets you have the more profits, and the more re-investment, and the justification for new investments and business opportunities

Self-sufficiency is not actually ideal, for any country, even China

What you want are friendly foreign markets that won't impose sanctions from you, and that you can sell each other competitive products to, and co-operate on R&D, education, healthcare and various social aspects. You want interdependence, at least with trusted foreign nations.
That's how you form a bloc and this bloc can become self-sufficient and allow for a higher quality of life than any 1 country by itself

However you can form a bloc only with the countries that are on the same page as you in foreign policy and that would be ready to align in ideological aspects and economic systems. It depends on geopolitics.
For countries outside the bloc you can still have friendly and fruitful relations with even if you don't harmonize your economic policies and remove all trade barriers. As long as they don't allow themselves to get ordered around by an adversarial bloc to you, such as the Western states

Russia and China now have very close relations and it would be accurate to describe Russia and half the post-Soviet states together with China as a bloc
However there would be some barriers here though. Russia and China ultimately do want to keep a slight distance from one another, as potentially they can have differences of opinion over things like Central Asia or India. Russia and other post-Soviet states would also be worried about Chinese producers and goods dominating their economies and so would want to keep some trade barriers
Central Asian states want some independence and leverage so it's in their benefit to maneuver between Russia and China in so far as that's possible.
A country like Turkmenistan chooses maximum isolation and neutrality as its main export is gas and it wants the independence to sell it to who it wants. Thus it has a totalitarian dictatorship designed to exclude any outside influence or coups. It's a little bit dumb, they might as well open up as even if they can sell gas to who they want to under current policies, any benefits of such a choice will be cancelled out by their own policies limiting the development of their own living standards and national industries.
North Korea also has an extreme level of control, and is orientated towards opposition against the West, but even in regards to China it wants to maintain some distance - as it's ultimately eyeing reunification in the future and for Korea to become a power in its own right.
India is a friendly country to Russia, but has its issues with China - and so wants to maintain distance from the later and develops relations with the West for its own benefit and as a counter-balance. But if the West now demands that India take its side or else, then suddenly their threat is from the West than from China. It's quite possible that India will start to draw closer to the Russia-China axis in return for China giving some concessions on sensitive issues.

kvs wrote:

NATzO is the clown show of clown shows.   They are, Orwell style, redefining bankruptcy as the phony "default" of Russia
since it is paying in rubles.   Neither is there an actual default, nor is any such "default" any sort of bankruptcy.  

The fact that Elvira Sakhipzadovna has been recently so active and frequent in her important public interventions is a clear indication of President Putin's strong endorsement of hers.

"If Russia wins, this means the enslavement of Ukraine".

Sums up the hate-based retardation of the west. Russians are liberating ethnic Russians from Banderite oppression
and genocide.

Kiko wrote:

kvs wrote:

NATzO is the clown show of clown shows.   They are, Orwell style, redefining bankruptcy as the phony "default" of Russia
since it is paying in rubles.   Neither is there an actual default, nor is any such "default" any sort of bankruptcy.  

The fact that Elvira Sakhipzadovna has been recently so active and frequent in her important public interventions is a clear indication of President Putin's strong endorsement of hers.

This is disgusting. In an interview, when given the question if she expected the west to freeze Russian reserves, she directly said yes. That pug faced bitch brazenly admitted to treason and economic sabotage. I guess Putin is too ideologically capitalist to care about these atlanticist saboteurs who are destroying the lives of the Russian proletariat by threatening their job security and public services.