Russia and economic war by the west

https://www.naturalgasworld.com/indias-ongc-eyes-more-russian-energy-assets-press-98322
The Indian state-run ONGC is eyeing Russian oil and gas assets including Salym, Sakhalin-I and Sakhalin-II projects.

"The war will not last forever, nor will the sanctions. We must move to secure our energy supplies," the sources told the newspaper. "We understand the risk and we are willing to take the risk."

ONGC is also evaluating the option to bid for Shell's 27.5% interest in the Sakhalin-II oil and gas project and ExxonMobil's 30% stake in the Sakhalin-I project, looking to acquire energy assets cheap as western oil companies exit Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, Economic Times added. ONGC already owns a 20% stake in Sakhalin-I.

https://www.naturalgasworld.com/indias-ongc-eyes-more-russian-energy-assets-press-98322


Fuuuuck Russia's isolation escalates quickly!

LMFS wrote:The only less than 100% absurd way of understanding this stunt is to use it to "justify" that they are going to officially steal Russia's frozen money, because they are not paying their debts... I mean, it is sad, but Western audience is retarded, so it will work

yup, as long as China, India or Saudis wont start pulling back their US denominated reserves. That would be interesting to see the snowball effect...

McDonald's to sell its Russian business to current licensee Govor, 19.05.2022.

McDonald's to sell its business in Russia to licensee Alexander Govor.

McDonald's will sell its business in Russia to current licensee Alexander Govor, the company said in a release.

"After announcing its withdrawal from the Russian market and the beginning of the process of selling its Russian business, McDonald's Corporation announced the conclusion of a sale and purchase agreement with its current licensee Alexander Govor," the report says.

It also states that, under the terms of the agreement, he will manage the establishments under the new brand.
Govor owns the company "Guide" . He owns 25 McDonald's restaurants in Siberia - in Novosibirsk , Berdsk, Tomsk , Kemerovo , Novokuznetsk , Barnaul and Krasnoyarsk.

The company added that the agreement will go through all the necessary stages of approval in the next few weeks. In addition, it obliges the new owner to keep jobs for all employees on equivalent terms for at least two years. It is noted that Govor agreed to fund their salaries, as well as existing obligations to suppliers, landlords and utilities.

In early March, the corporation temporarily closed 850 restaurants in Russia due to the situation in Ukraine and suspended all operations in the market. McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczynski cited the lack of the ability to "guarantee the smooth operation of core businesses, the maintenance of key product lines at the facilities, and the high quality standards that guests are accustomed to" as the reason. Despite this, all 62,000 Russian employees of the network continue to receive wages.

https://ria.ru/20220519/biznes-1789493975.html

Victory for Russia:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/win-putin-italy-defies-europe-104539830.html

Oh no!
And now what!?!
Where all these tasty buns that don't get spoiled after 6 months will go!?!
Evil Russkie invaders!

probably one of the most important decisions, for sure demanding rubles for energy .
hopefully he will fix the backward economy development of country too and start
doing something more future looking for his nation economy and build a strong high tech
electronics industry ,including microprocessors and memory chips.. to end their dependence on
west and taiwan , and can be mass produced locally.

An hour ago, the dollar price on the Moscow Stock Exchange reached the level of 57.2 rubles per dollar.

At this rate, my salary for May will tend to the level of $4,000. Also hello to all fans of counting Russia's GDP in dollars at face value.

The Russian Central Bank also increased the amount of dollars each citizen can withdraw monthly from $10,000 USD to $50,000 USD.
There are only capital controls on withdrawing dollars and euros. No limits for other currencies.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/rouble-dips-against-dollar-after-russia-eases-capital-controls-2022-05-18/

So which is gonna be in service earlier? The gas pipeline expansion to china or the novatek et al LNG terminals? Former takes half a decade at least to build infrastructure for. Latter is faster to build bit import substitution hasn't been implemented fully there yet.

Getting rid of the Bologna system is the key to the sovereignisation of Russia

The Bologna system institutionalised the loss of hundreds of thousands of minds from
Russia under the flags of "mobility" and "integration"

https://russtrat.ru/en/comments_/19-may-2022-0108-10391

limb wrote:So which is gonna be in service earlier? The gas pipeline expansion to china or the novatek et al LNG terminals? Former takes half a decade at least to build infrastructure for. Latter is faster to build bit import substitution hasn't been implemented fully there yet.

I would say the Novatek LNG terminals will come into service first. But at this point it is unknown really.

Power of Siberia pipeline is ramping up, exports via that will increase 4x over the next 2-3 years, and Power of Siberia 2 extension should decrease need for Sakhalin gas exports to Japan and South Korea. India is already trying to get into the Sakhalin projects and if Japan and South Korea ban Russian LNG then it is expected that India or southern China will pick it up. Japan so far has resisted banning Russian LNG.

With regards to Yamal the Novatek LNG and Soyuz Vostok pipeline (formerly known as Power of Siberia 2) should be the projects of relevance. Soyuz Vostok might take 5 years to build and ramp up to full capacity once the initial go ahead is given. I do not know what will happen with Novatek LNG but it might have additional sanctions impacts. Not just on construction of liquefaction facilities but also on access to ice class LNG tanker ships. The cooperation with South Korean shipyards at Zvezda might be in jeopardy. Many of the existing ice class LNG tankers are also owned by Western aligned companies.

I expect Russian civilian shipbuilding to hit major difficulties because of the sanctions. The talk about the electronics ban is one thing, but there is a heavy dependence on foreign built, foreign owned, and foreign engine powered ships. A lot of the major naval diesel engine manufacturers are sanctioning Russia.

Technically China is the largest shipbuilding nation. But if you are using imported engines and electronics you won't be safe either. Russia historically ordered a lot of ships either from Finland or with Wartsila engines. I expect both to suffer because of Cold War 2.0. Remove the Russian market and there is no good reason for Finnish shipbuilding to even exist.

lancelot wrote:Remove the Russian market and there is no good reason for Finnish shipbuilding to even exist.

Wärtsilä have a huge piece of the market. IIRC about 1/3 of the ships run with something from Wärtsilä (this is not just
about engines).

They are among the best if not the best[1] in delivering turnkey solutions for maritime industries, from the ship design to
the whole lifecycle. Their products and services are really good!

These days, if you have a ship fully packed with Wärtisilä stuff and you have a big fleet with support contracts,
you don't ever really have to bother with maintenance. The whole ship is monitored and before anything break you receive
a call to tell something about anything close to need repair, and that the necessary spare parts will be available in your next
port call - they have support services almost everywhere in the world.

This video gives some idea.

https://vimeo.com/343192472

In regards to engines, Bergen (and probably some Japanese) is the only that really match. Man engines are supposed to be
good too, but also tends too be far more expensive to maintain for no reason.

They are getting also big in land based energy generation too.

[1] Kongsberg is the only that come close.

rigoletto wrote:Getting rid of the Bologna system is the key to the sovereignisation of Russia

The Bologna system institutionalised the loss of hundreds of thousands of minds from
Russia under the flags of "mobility" and "integration"

https://russtrat.ru/en/comments_/19-may-2022-0108-10391

Interestingly this will resonate with a hell of a lot of educated people in the West too.
I mean the statement in the article that smart people were ignored and forced into an education that made them small meaningless cogs in the system of overseas economic power blocs ie US/WEF oligarchs.

I've seen plenty of super smart people in Britain and Europe who wind up working in the shittest jobs imaginable.
They were all sold "education" then graduated prestige universities, even Oxford and Cambridge and told "so what... everyone has a degree now get to the factory conveyor belt". It started around 30 yrs ago I'm told and it doesn't seem to have changed since.

If you look at actual living standards for younger people over the last few decdes, they have plummeted.
Meanwhile there has been a mass influx of labour from the 3rd world or lower wage E Europe. Those individuals have often got wealthy if they take their wages back home. But "economic liberalism" has devasted the lives of many Westerners.

And as the article states, American/WEF liberalism treated the talents of the Russian World with contempt as well.

Hard to say which will be first, but both will be used...

The days of cheap gas in the EU are likely over either way.

lancelot wrote:

limb wrote:So which is gonna be in service earlier? The gas pipeline expansion to china or the novatek et al LNG terminals? Former takes half a decade at least to build infrastructure for. Latter is faster to build bit import substitution hasn't been implemented fully there yet.

I would say the Novatek LNG terminals will come into service first. But at this point it is unknown really.

Power of Siberia pipeline is ramping up, exports via that will increase 4x over the next 2-3 years, and Power of Siberia 2 extension should decrease need for Sakhalin gas exports to Japan and South Korea. India is already trying to get into the Sakhalin projects and if Japan and South Korea ban Russian LNG then it is expected that India or southern China will pick it up. Japan so far has resisted banning Russian LNG.

With regards to Yamal the Novatek LNG and Soyuz Vostok pipeline (formerly known as Power of Siberia 2) should be the projects of relevance. Soyuz Vostok might take 5 years to build and ramp up to full capacity once the initial go ahead is given. I do not know what will happen with Novatek LNG but it might have additional sanctions impacts. Not just on construction of liquefaction facilities but also on access to ice class LNG tanker ships. The cooperation with South Korean shipyards at Zvezda might be in jeopardy. Many of the existing ice class LNG tankers are also owned by Western aligned companies.

I expect Russian civilian shipbuilding to hit major difficulties because of the sanctions. The talk about the electronics ban is one thing, but there is a heavy dependence on foreign built, foreign owned, and foreign engine powered ships. A lot of the major naval diesel engine manufacturers are sanctioning Russia.

Technically China is the largest shipbuilding nation. But if you are using imported engines and electronics you won't be safe either. Russia historically ordered a lot of ships either from Finland or with Wartsila engines. I expect both to suffer because of Cold War 2.0. Remove the Russian market and there is no good reason for Finnish shipbuilding to even exist.

Iran builds MTU/Man ship engines to a copy. As with the drones ..., Russia should turn to Iran and see if such engines could be copied or ordered. Maybe even a joint company for this based on the Caspian Sea?

Russian cosmetics conquers the domestic market, 04.05.2022.

Cosmetics manufacturers from the Moscow region are expanding production in order to replace imports.

Today, regional authorities offer various business support programs aimed at developing import substitution and localizing production. There is interest on the part of entrepreneurs, for example, according to the Moscow region, more than 100 applications have already been submitted for various benefits and subsidies.

One such case is Arabia, a domestic cosmetics brand that has been operating on the market for over 11 years. Arabia's product range includes products for body and face skin care, depilation, manicure and pedicure, professional hair and scalp care, as well as antiseptics, the company said. Arabia has training centers where more than 20,000 specialists are trained annually.

The brand's production line is located on the territory of Protvino in the Moscow region. And today, according to Alexey Vyrodov, Arabia's sales director, it is planned to expand the capacity. The company is ready to replace foreign finished products - face and hand creams, hair care. And a significant part - about 30% of the components - is planned to be produced for their own production of cosmetics. Now the lion's share of preservatives is imported products from European countries, so the business of import substitution of components is especially relevant.

Brand history

A company representative says that the history of the business began in 2009 with ARAVIA sugar pastes for shugaring. The products began to be in demand among Russian beauty salons, and the line quickly expanded, supplemented by products for skin care before and after hair removal, body and face care, as well as hair. In the early years, only professional cosmetics were present in the assortment, in 2014 home care products also appeared. At the same time, the network of our own training and partner centers in Russia and the CIS countries was growing. Today, according to the company, more than 150 beauty salons work with the brand, and in the context of the policy of import substitution, the company is going to actively develop, will increase production in the Moscow region and a network of partners in Russia and friendly countries.

Support measures in the Moscow region

According to Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Investments, Industry and Science of the Moscow Region Ekaterina Zinovieva, the primary task for the region today is to stimulate business in the field of import substitution. Important sectors in this regard include mechanical engineering, electronics and electrical equipment, agriculture, food industry, clothing, textiles, leather products, woodworking, chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, production of medical equipment and medical products, production of rubber and plastic products, mineral products.

For entrepreneurs in the current conditions, financial support is especially relevant. Small and medium-sized businesses near Moscow, as well as the self-employed, can still take advantage of the preferential lending programs of the Moscow Regional Microfinance Fund*, the Ministry of Investments says. The Fund has 10 programs - SMEs can get a loan of up to 5 million rubles at a rate of 2% per annum for up to 3 years. Program rates vary. They depend on the scope of activity of the SME entity, collateral conditions and other parameters.

In addition, the Moscow Region is ready to subsidize part of the interest rate on loans so that in the end it does not exceed 10%. This subsidy is available to SMEs implementing new construction projects and modernization projects for existing enterprises. And for entrepreneurs implementing import substitution projects (should be included in a special list ), a new program of the Government of the Moscow Region and the SME Corporation is available. It will allow businesses to obtain a loan at a rate of 4 to 5.5% per annum in 10 accredited banks.

A separate program to support the development of import substitution was developed for businesses that need land: businesses can lease land for the construction of enterprises for a period of 3 years at a rate of 1 ruble per year, says Ekaterina Zinovieva. Also, according to her, the program of offset contracts again acquires an important role. The region is ready to enter into offsets with investors whose projects are aimed at participating in state and municipal procurement. Moreover, at the level of the federal government, the issue of reducing the minimum investment threshold for offsets to 100 million rubles is being considered.

There are only two criteria for receiving assistance from the Moscow region: the company must be registered in the region and work in one of the above industries. “Today we face an important task – to ensure the independence of the Russian economy from imported goods,” says Ekaterina Zinovieva. - The country's industry must work and provide the population with the necessary goods, regardless of foreign policy conditions. In this regard, the Moscow Region has always been and remains open to all constituent entities of the Russian Federation and to friendly countries: we are ready to discuss and promote the implementation of projects, we are ready to help establish production chains with enterprises from other regions and countries.”

“Support measures in the Moscow region affect all areas of small business: attracting resources at attractive rates, and generating additional demand, and infrastructural support. Infrastructure, for example, is very important for small businesses in terms of production development. The range of support programs is wide, it can be predicted that this will help small businesses to overcome the current challenges in the market more comfortably and even get resources to expand their activities. The share of small businesses in many industries remains low, this is one of the problems of our economy. Perhaps now is just such a chance to change the trend: small businesses, using their flexibility and adaptability, and, on the other hand, support programs, will be able to occupy a more significant niche, ”comments Pavel Samiev, General Director of BusinessDrom LLC.

How it works

Returning to the experience of domestic brands, within the framework of the regional program to support the development of import substitution, the Arabia company will lease a land plot in Protvino at a rate of 1 ruble per year. In this territory, the investor plans to expand the production of cosmetics by the end of 2022.

“We produce a product “from idea to shelf”. Starting from market research, recipe development, direct product creation, and ending with its sale to both end consumers and distributors. Taking into account the fact that our consumers are beauty salons, cosmetologists, the effectiveness of products, the solution of specific problems - dry skin, acne, etc. is extremely important to us. We purchased most of the components abroad from the world's leading suppliers,” says Alexey Vyrodov. – In particular, many of them were from Europe. Now we are actively working on testing components from Asian suppliers. We are also planning our own production of ingredients.” According to him, in addition to land lease benefits, the company also enjoys preferential terms of financing. “All the support measures are very useful for us,” he sums up.

“To date, the Ministry of Investments has already received more than 100 investment projects in the field of import substitution for consideration. Some of them are already receiving support. So, land plots have been selected for 15 companies, which will be leased at a rate of 1 ruble per year for the construction of industrial facilities. One of these investors, Arabia, received a 2.7-hectare plot under the Land for 1 Ruble program. Through the implementation of the project to expand production, the company will replace foreign cosmetics on the Russian market,” says Ekaterina Zinovieva. According to her, the total amount of private investment in the project is 850 million rubles. After the expansion of production at the enterprise, about 200 new jobs will be created.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/partner_cases/ministerstvo_investitsii_mo/rossiiskaya-kosmetika-pokoryaet-vnutrennii-rinok

Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:Iran builds MTU/Man ship engines to a copy. As with the drones ..., Russia should turn to Iran and see if such engines could be copied or ordered. Maybe even a joint company for this based on the Caspian Sea?

I don't know what engines Iran build but MTU engines aren't substitutes for Wärtsilä (or Bergen). Wärtsilä engines are medium speed while the MTU are high speed, different applications.

MAN currently have a more complete portfolio due to some M&A, but they are know by their high speed engines - I suppose the Iranian are based on those.[1]

Russia have the engines, they are at the outdated side but TMH have been investing; however this is not real the problem but the lack worldwide maintenance/support facilities.

https://www.kolomnadiesel.com/catalog/diesels/
https://tmh.global/products/engines/

TMH bought «Bergen Engines» last year to solve this problem and also to acquire more advanced technology, but the deal was blocked by Norway.

At this moment, the best bet for Russia are the Chinese (Weichai) whose can offer some decent the support, but I have no idea if the Chinese are good ones.[3]

[1] I was referring to high speed ones in my previous post.
[2] and maybe others.
[3] I would bet they are not that reliable.

Just to make a addition in here, in relation to LNG carriers, until several years ago 100% of the LNG
carriers used to run on steam turbines because there was no gas engines.

Currently there is a mix because reciprocating engines are more efficient, but the Japanese managed
to increase the efficiency of their marine steam turbines to the same level of the engines improving
the re-heating technology. If it has be done already there is no reason Russia could not do the same
or better.

Yet, there is also other more advanced propulsion systems using co-generation setups like COGES
(Combined gas turbine and steam turbine integrated electric drive system) and a Japanese variant
using reciprocating engines instead of gas turbines, and others.

LNG Fuel Cells

At the end, it all depends of the specific application and mission of the ship.

[EDIT]

The real issue in here isn't the lack of solutions but the existing fleet. Once you have at least one ship,
the last thing you will want is your next ship running with a different engine. It will complicated and increase
the maintenance costs, and mixing with turbines is even worse because you need engineers with very
different training.

If the ship owner is forced to change, which seems to be the case, he will think 1000x before making
the decision in order to do it right otherwise he may end up with a bunch of ships with different solutions
that will cost hell more to maintain.

Russia can replace any Finnish engine. And not with an inferior variation.

It is necessary to insist that the G7 economies proceed with the full indexation of wages, salaries and pensions along with the CPIs hikes in order for the population to maintain their purchase power in the present and perspective growing consumer inflation scenario.

On another front, US' Starbucks is quitting Russia, which is wonderful news since its coffee was disgusting. It was corrupting Russia's taste for a sound coffee in a country whose traditional preference has historically always been tea.
So Russia should now find a native entrepreneur who's interested in this business and replace all Starbucks shops under a new brand which could be, say, "Café do Brasil" ('Coffee of Brazil), whose selection 'Arabica' types are among the world's finest. This would induce the Russian population to be trained and develop connoisseurs on a truly tasty and aromatic beverage.

Inflation in Russia has crashed to an annualized rate of about 2.8% in the second week of May.

I have been harping on the fact that Russia has no inflationary instability since 2015. The late 2014
ruble devaluation produced an inflationary shock that dissipated by March of 2015. We are seeing the
same effect again but this time around the shock duration is about 2.5 months. Most of the inflation shock
in March was driven by consumer hysteria.

To bypass the dollar and SWIFT, India and Russia will start "barter" trade. Under the agreement India plans to import fertilizers from Russia and in return will export medicine, tea and rice

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-plans-barter-for-russian-fertiliser/articleshow/91750978.cms

Fuuuuck Russia's isolation escalates quickly!

Western companies were not in Russia for charity or to help Russia.... there was money to be made... and now Indian and Chinese and rest of the world firms can swoop in and replace them...

Under the agreement India plans to import fertilizers from Russia and in return will export medicine, tea and rice

Importing fertiliser from Russia would be useful for India... not only will they be able to boost their crops, but they can sell any excess fertiliser to the west at inflated rates because they are not allowed to buy from Russia and Belarus... excellent...

This is a start but they need to create rupee/ruble accounts and simplify things.

Russia, India, and China need to setup an alternative to SWIFT. They each have their own internal payment systems but there is no reason why they should have their transactions inspected by the West and them using the data for applying sanctions. In the short them they should setup a payment channel between Russia-India and Russia-China. Either with the Russian payment system, or the Indian and Chinese systems respectively or both. In the long term a common payment system should be made.

The before mentioned products trade is a start I guess. But there is room for a lot more trade to be done. For example India can either export cars or make factories in Russia to build cars, they can also export textiles and related products. Russia will need to displace a lot of Western produced software, and might contract Indian software consulting services.

The payments can be made with oil, LNG, fertilizer, timber, and other raw material products. In addition to contracts to build nuclear power plants, export nuclear power plant technology, and weapons. India has no modern uranium enrichment technology and it could import that. The West will likely not export that kind of technology to India. Russia also has the only operational fast reactor technology in the market and India can import that. A large country like India cannot rely solely on liquid water reactor technology.