Russian special military operation in Ukraine #8

I read earlier today on some local telegram that LDNR had received 150ish "Javelin" CLUs and about twice as many missiles, for immediate operational use. Can't find it now though, anyone know? Or was it BS?

It does fit with the visually confirmed captures of intact systems, at any rate. Rb 56/NLAWs seem even more numerous.

Ispan wrote:

JohninMK wrote:The lucky ones

https://twitter.com/i/status/1507641907635232768

Please confirm. Is this a new surrender? Because a few days ago there was the surrender of a major and a command post of sixty people, mostly officers, from the 14th Brigade.

Just want to make sure it's not a repeat of the same story, as the number is similar, though this time somebody pointed to a foto of a lieutenant colonel, somebody with a two pip rank insignia.

Might be the same story

Looks like a successful Ukrainian counterattack on Trostyanets, Sumy region

Here a Ukrainian UAV records Russian artillery firing (a Grad and 3 Msta's) from a railway depot

https://t.me/milinfolive/79663

And then those Mstas and Kamaz trucks taken out by photos from the ground

https://t.me/milinfolive/79662

lancelot wrote:I think Russia should have improved those Donbass Militia's equipment. But I can understand that they needed to maintain surprise.

I agree to an extent. Maybe modernize equipment with thermal imaging for T-64 tanks, up armor and far better comm and intelligent gathering equipment.

Hole wrote:/b]
From the pilot's interview: during the raid in Gostomel, they recorded EIGHTEEN MANPADS launches on their helicopter. After that, the helicopter was damaged, made an emergency landing, and the crew was successfully evacuated and now continues combat service. Tell me at least one example of the work of Western aviation in such conditions.

I am Sk.E.E. Kapitan, 1st Regiment K A Sevastopol.
My English is perfect.

I have returned from Hospital #4. My husband will have his scan later. I know why.

I can see as I come home many missiles going up. Our Flot is protecting our coast, I do not know where but I can look at cameras. I will do this now.

Most cameras are not working for private view. I can see all. Our Flot is to Sea for some many days now, I have permission to report this. It is common knowledge in our news report to Publik.

Some missiles have come from west in our Sea. If this is true it means Romania and Bulgaria are in the fight. They will be destroyed. If this is true it means the war is getting more big.

It is allowed for me to say that there is strong shooting and much noise off our coasts. I do not know where or how far north this shooting is, I can not see or hear north of Kacha. I know that 35th Battery is not armed. I know that 30th Battery is armed. I know 30th Battery is shooting now. The guns are big, from the Great Patriotic War. I know these big guns still work, I have been to 30th Battery.

I can not see from our peaceful house the coast, there is a high hill to block our view. But I can see smoke and hear the noise. Noise is very strong now. There is a big fight now.

More missiles from somewhere have fallen on our south side of City. I can see the air defense working. It is still light here. The dogs are very much with fear, they hear all that we can not hear.

I will speak to my son soon. I have permission to do this and I will report what he says. I will report only truth that he says. Our daughter is working very hard in her Field Hospital. She says many wounded are coming from Mariupol, ours and the enemy. Enemy is treated exactly like our wounded. It is what we do.

Some author by the name of Panzerwaffle in a Telegram channel

A month has passed since the beginning of the operation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, I will try to estimate the pros and cons, exclusively from publicly available sources.

+ The presence of a large number of operational-tactical missile systems and cruise missiles of various types of basing, which allows you to attack targets throughout Ukraine, destroying military infrastructure, complicating rearmament, supply and replenishment of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

+ The presence of a large number of modern attack helicopters capable of operating even at night and in the SMU, in conditions of advanced enemy air defense.

+ Availability of efficient intelligence of the operational and strategic level, which ensured strikes on the bases and camps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and mercenary units (Yavorov, Nikolaev, and other places) at the time of maximum accumulation of personnel.

+ / - The presence of a sufficiently large group of front-line aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, capable of solving tasks from the contact line to the deep rear, prohibiting large-scale movements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, given the area of the Theater of Operations and the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this grouping is not as large as we would like. If we compare the current conflict with the NATO operation in Yugoslavia in 1999, then there NATO had a grouping of 1000+ aircraft, which exceeds the entire current available composition of the front-line aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, with a six-fold smaller FRY area compared to Ukraine, twice the number of armed forces and four times the population. At the same time, the air defense capabilities of Yugoslavia were also immeasurably weaker than the Ukrainian ones.

- Lack of tactical reconnaissance and target designation equipment, including UAVs, especially shock ones, which further complicates the actions of the Air Force and artillery, not allowing them to knock out enemy equipment quickly enough.

- The lack of high-precision tactical weapons: corrected aerial bombs, guided artillery shells leads to the same consequences, as well as an increase in concomitant losses.

- Lack of modern armored vehicles. Judging by the well-known video materials, new-generation vehicles on the Armata, Kurganets, and Boomerang platforms are basically absent from the active troops. And if a new tank with the current enemy may not be needed, then a new generation of heavy infantry fighting vehicles and APCs would clearly not hurt.- Lack of modern logistics facilities (protected trucks, unloading/loading facilities, cargo platforms, etc.). It is a systemic problem of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Read more here

.

- Apparently, the lack of readiness of the Russian troops for the conditions of combat and the capabilities of the enemy, confirmed by frequent effective attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the rear columns in the initial period of the operation, and, unfortunately, a considerable number of dead representatives of the senior command staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, who in a normal situation have nothing to do on the battlefield.

What to expect next?

Let's start from the stated goals of the operation: demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.

Successful demilitarization of the country involves taking control of its main administrative and industrial centers, demobilizing the armed forces, reorienting or eliminating the military industry in order to exclude the re-establishment and rearmament of the army.

Denazification in this case implies establishing control over the Ukrainian state and supporting the pro-Russian government, excluding the continuation of a policy aimed at rapprochement with the West and implanting Russophobic ideology.

Both of these goals assume control over the largest Ukrainian cities.

Conclusion: if these goals remain on the agenda, we should expect that the second stage of the Russian operation will mean the introduction of additional large forces of the Russian Armed Forces and the development of an offensive with decisive goals until the above result is achieved. Otherwise, it will be difficult to talk about demilitarization, and denazification will simply be impossible: a more nationalistic and Russophobic regime will inevitably come to power in Ukraine if its main cities are not occupied by Russian troops.

Continuing to monitor the domestic logistics, we would like to note a few more features:

In addition to the fact that protected trucks are extremely rare, so far we have not seen:

— pallets and palletized cargo;
- loaders (except for TZM)—
- standardized plastic capping/packaging;
- analogs of the DROPS system
-containerized cargo or container carriers;

We see barrels, cans, and wooden crates stacked up. Unloading takes place mainly in the old — fashioned way-with handles, and drivers go with paper invoices.

Such a transport and logistics system does not work at all, but it is insanely inefficient in terms of labor costs and requires more personnel at a lower speed for performing basic operations, such as loading-unloading-distribution.

Such a system is especially strange in the army, which relies heavily on a combination of artillery and armored vehicles, which requires moving crazy amounts of ammunition, fuel and other cargo on a daily basis.

I remember some time ago, one of the Russian near-war gurus said that "in 1945, the Red Army was able to participate in the Manchurian operation" and turned out to be absolutely right. In 2022, the Russian army demonstrates transport and logistics efficiency approximately at the level of 1945. "The Red Army could", yes.

Pictured: Four-wheel drive truck with armored cab MAN HX 8x8 Drops LL93AB.

For reference: The 'Drops' system (Demountable Rack Offload and Pickup System) was invented in the mid-1970s in the interests of artillery formations. Since conventional trucks and forklifts did not allow for the rapid and sufficient supply of artillery units.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Drone was apparently shot down over Sevastopol, at high altitude. Now that is interesting. UA doesn't possess any drones (officially) that can reach Sevastopol from the territories it currently controls.

AA missiles were definitely launched from the huge military district/"polygon" south of Sevastopol, and the target appears to have come from the south-west, where there is only the Black Sea, until you end up in RO/BG.

Some OSINTers say it was likely an S-300 variant that engaged the target, so some serious stuff.

UA drone seemed far-fetched to begin with, even more now with this in mind, and everyone's suspiciously quiet about it now. Was it a U.S. long-range ditto? Some RQ-whatever "stealth" drone that wasn't supposed to have been seen?

Was there any need for Russia to send tanks to Ukraine? I'm not asking this because tanks have proved to be vulnerable to ATGMs. But was there any specific strategy behind this?

The U.S and U.K decided to send tanks to Iraq because they were there to carry out a genocide. But Russia's approach has been the exact opposite...which is to keep civilian casualties to a bare minimum.

Rocket artillery combined with UAVs and Su -25s was more than enough to carry out strikes across Ukraine. So where is the need for tanks?

Sujoy wrote:Was there any need for Russia to send tanks to Ukraine? I'm not asking this because tanks have proved to be vulnerable to ATGMs. But was there any specific strategy behind this?

The U.S and U.K decided to send tanks to Iraq because they were there to carry out a genocide. But Russia's approach has been the exact opposite...which is to keep civilian casualties to a bare minimum.

Rocket artillery combined with UAVs and Su -25s was more than enough to carry out strikes across Ukraine. So where is the need for tanks?

Tanks are needed for advances. Infantry can't go anywhere without them. What if you come across a bunker, or a sniper in an apartment, or another tank, or an IFV? There was a DNR fighter who said as much

They've been very active on both sides in all the main battles across the Donbass, in Irpen, Izyum, and so on.

Sujoy wrote:Was there any need for Russia to send tanks to Ukraine? I'm not asking this because tanks have proved to be vulnerable to ATGMs. But was there any specific strategy behind this?

The U.S and U.K decided to send tanks to Iraq because they were there to carry out a genocide. But Russia's approach has been the exact opposite...which is to keep civilian casualties to a bare minimum.

Rocket artillery combined with UAVs and Su -25s was more than enough to carry out strikes across Ukraine. So where is the need for tanks?

Russian OOB has tanks even in motor rifle units and that has been the case since ww2 at least)

Ispan wrote:

— pallets and palletized cargo;
- loaders (except for TZM)—
- standardized plastic capping/packaging;
- analogs of the DROPS system
-containerized cargo or container carriers;

We see barrels, cans, and wooden crates stacked up. Unloading takes place mainly in the old — fashioned way-with handles, and drivers go with paper invoices.

Such a transport and logistics system does not work at all, but it is insanely inefficient in terms of labor costs and requires more personnel at a lower speed for performing basic operations, such as loading-unloading-distribution.

Such a system is especially strange in the army, which relies heavily on a combination of artillery and armored vehicles, which requires moving crazy amounts of ammunition, fuel and other cargo on a daily basis.

I remember some time ago, one of the Russian near-war gurus said that "in 1945, the Red Army was able to participate in the Manchurian operation" and turned out to be absolutely right. In 2022, the Russian army demonstrates transport and logistics efficiency approximately at the level of 1945. "The Red Army could", yes.

Pictured: Four-wheel drive truck with armored cab MAN HX 8x8 Drops LL93AB.

For reference: The 'Drops' system (Demountable Rack Offload and Pickup System) was invented in the mid-1970s in the interests of artillery formations. Since conventional trucks and forklifts did not allow for the rapid and sufficient supply of artillery units.

Just pointing, the USA/UK military said an automated loading system doesn't make sense, because it makes everything more complicated and deprive one important member of the mainanance crew of the tank.


Now, other side single use automated cargo handling trucks better than manually unploading from trucks ?

I don't want to say any of these good, just to highlight the interesting differences.

Kiev and Kharkov will be taken

But the Ukropians and NATO enacted a modern version of the Panther Wotan Line

The defense stretches from Slavyansk to the Dnieper proper

The Panther Wotan Line 2 is basically the same fortification concept enacted by the Wehrmacht in the dnieper offensive

And the MOD definitely will not bypass this Line, as it is imperative to wipe out the donetsk basin before continued operations in Kharkov and Kiev

Kiev is imperative to take, because the west Bank of the Dnieper is steep and higher than the east bank

You also must also cross the Dnieper at multiple points and if Belarus is not being used near Galicia, then you need the Kiev crossing to get units to the other side

A crossing is preferable to airlift due to the proximity of the crossing itself

So yes Kiev is a political and strategic objective

Of course S400 can fire upwards, the canisters are built for this

And the radars are probably farther away so it saw the drone laterally/diagonally approaching

The rocket does the rest

I am Sk.E.E. Kapitan, 1st Regiment K A Sevastopol.
My English is perfect.

I am here. I have some little time before they operate on my husband. I will go to Hospital before they operate. I do not like this operation, my husband does not heal fast because of the cancer. I have talked to my son and my daughter. My daughter is working hard in Hospital.

My son says even teenagers are hunting the orcs in Mariupol and other villages. The children talk on their social media and tell each other what to do. Teenagers know all, they know where all the orcs hide in their positions. He says the teenagers have made wood wedges. He says the teenagers wait for the orcs to go in and shut the door. He says the children then throw in a cocktail, take the hammer and wedge the door. He says the teenagers have others waiting to shoot the orcs as they try to get out of the shooting holes. He says no one tries to stop the children. He says all the children have dead relatives from the killings. Now the children are fighting back. He says the enemy scream as they burn. He says no one feels sorry for them as they burn. He says soldiers protect the teenagers as they do what they must. He says no teenagers have been hurt, at least for now. I know some will be hurt and killed. This is war, war to the finish. He says many thousands of enemy are lying in piles in Mariupol. They will all die.

Hole wrote:

ALAMO wrote:

Hole wrote:
Comment on Twitter: "If they use Iskanders on that they can´t be runnig oput of missiles soon."

C'mon, we both know this bullshit and that hit has nothing with Iskander ...

It was stated by the Russian MoD that the Buk-M1 launcher was hit by an Iskander.

Some Iskanders expired date maybe March 31st, I guess.

Meanwhile,....Wagner group operators are disgusted with what they find in Nazi vermin nests ....
Look how he is holding it

"Man!, what the &#@! is this!?"

auslander wrote:I am Sk.E.E. Kapitan, 1st Regiment K A Sevastopol.
My English is perfect.

I am here. I have some little time before they operate on my husband. I will go to Hospital before they operate. I do not like this operation, my husband does not heal fast because of the cancer. I have talked to my son and my daughter. My daughter is working hard in Hospital.

My son says even teenagers are hunting the orcs in Mariupol and other villages. The children talk on their social media and tell each other what to do. Teenagers know all, they know where all the orcs hide in their positions. He says the teenagers have made wood wedges. He says the teenagers wait for the orcs to go in and shut the door. He says the children then throw in a cocktail, take the hammer and wedge the door. He says the teenagers have others waiting to shoot the orcs as they try to get out of the shooting holes. He says no one tries to stop the children. He says all the children have dead relatives from the killings. Now the children are fighting back. He says the enemy scream as they burn. He says no one feels sorry for them as they burn. He says soldiers protect the teenagers as they do what they must. He says no teenagers have been hurt, at least for now. I know some will be hurt and killed. This is war, war to the finish. He says many thousands of enemy are lying in piles in Mariupol. They will all die.

Wishing for a speedy recovery for your husband.
Thoughts are with you and him.
All the way from South Africa.