Russian special military operation in Ukraine #8

The negotiations, legitimize Moscows interests in Ukraine

Yes military activity is reduced, what does this mean? It's a vague term like special military operation , in the west the term is plausible deniability

Which means it can be everything, and nothing

It's a legitimization , of the Russian demands, and Kiev agrees to some terms, which is already a good progress

Troops numbers will not be reduced, but activities will, which is a way of saying, what has been occurring for the last 2 weeks will continue

The fighting will move to Donetsk, and the grouping in Slavyansk and kramatorsk will be pushed out, where they go next is up to Ukraine

After donetsk is finished I imagine there will be a new set of demands on Ukraine, and from here the conflict can be controlled

Let's not fight here, but let us fight here

Yes it is a cynical approach of the Kremlin but an excellent one to reduce its operations throughout the front

We saw this in Syria

My guess, is donetsk will fall quickly

If the Ukrainians break the agreement to remain quiet near Kiev and Chernigov then after Donetsk,  it will resume

Either way it is a de facto political agreement to localize the fighting , which a winning party can enforce, in this case Russia

If Ukraine had the initiative they would wholly reject the demands and retake their territories

So it is a de facto imposition of terms , stop fighting where you have lost we will "cease activities" but we will liberate Donetsk.

After that "phase 1" we will see how it goes

It is called "normalization " the enemy is psychologically processing what occurred just now

They have essentially agreed to destroy the VSU in donetsk , idk what kind of agreement that is, but let Kiev figure it out

De-escalation in Kiev and Chernigov Directions Does Not Mean Ceasefire, Russia's Chief Negotiator Says

Lmfao

Stop struggling while we **** you

The flag of the DNR and Russia was raised on an administration building in Mariupol, the hymn was switched on, and a local crowd gathered to celebrate and voice their opinions about Zelensky.
Touching..

If, as they say on our and Ukrainian sides, the cessation of offensive operations in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions is justified precisely by the military need to increase efforts to defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Left Bank, then this will soon manifest itself in concrete offensive actions one way or another. In the case of the northern part of the Donbass, this is the Izyum direction, where there are different options for action - moving through Lozovaya to Pavlograd, moving south through Barvenkovo ​​to Krasnoarmeysk and the Donetsk-Pavlograd highway, moving to the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration. With the transfer of forces from near Kyiv and Chernigov, they can be used to solve one of these tasks.
The southern group advancing in Zaporozhye should be strengthened by those forces that should be released after the completion of the defeat of the enemy in Mariupol.

About all of the above, I want to note.
Again, returning to the Syrian experience.
2 times during the Syrian Campaign, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria was officially announced, including by Putin himself. In fact, after such statements, the grouping of the RF Armed Forces in Syria increased and operations intensified.
So let's wait for real events on the fronts.

It makes sense, Phase 1 basically comprised of:

- destroying Ukrainian military infrastructure and breaking them into separate disorganized groupings

- spreading them out via the quick movement across a 900km front

- tying them down until they ran out of necessities to conduct any operations

Phase 2

-destruction of the enemy grouping on Donetsk which is the largest in the country

- movement of forces into the center and Kharkov

- strengthening of the Southern grouping near Kherson

So Phase 2 is about securing the east bank of Ukraine which is a lot easier now

Hostilities will move west of the Dnieper it just requires to annihilate the VSU in Donetsk

Without resorting to mobilization or even increasing the amount of units in the area

In areas where activities are decreasing, cruise missiles and airstrikes can manage the situation

Once the east bank is secure, the rest of the country is easier to manage

But this resolves several complications of maintaining small forces dispersed

This is what was said regarding about the ops around Kiev and scaling down:

The transfer of parts of the Defense Ministry to the Donetsk theater of operations means a reduction in offensive operations on the Kiev and Chernigov fronts

As the source explained to Readovka, the latest statements by the Ministry of Defense do not mean the cessation of the work of our military in controlled territories, it is precisely about reducing the number of offensive operations.  Our troops will remain in their positions in the numbers necessary to carry out new tasks.  Everything is being done for the speedy achievement of the goals set by Shoigu - the elimination of the Donetsk grouping of the enemy and the liberation of the territory of the LDNR.

Phase 1 is what Shoigu wants - DNR and LNR full liberation (which makes sense it is where Ukraines entire military is, or at least all their trained and tested soldiers).  After that, Phase 2.  Possibly around Odessa and others.  Kiev area will be last I believe unless they do decide to go west to Lviv.

miketheterrible wrote:This is what was said regarding about the ops around Kiev and scaling down:

The transfer of parts of the Defense Ministry to the Donetsk theater of operations means a reduction in offensive operations on the Kiev and Chernigov fronts

As the source explained to Readovka, the latest statements by the Ministry of Defense do not mean the cessation of the work of our military in controlled territories, it is precisely about reducing the number of offensive operations.  Our troops will remain in their positions in the numbers necessary to carry out new tasks.  Everything is being done for the speedy achievement of the goals set by Shoigu - the elimination of the Donetsk grouping of the enemy and the liberation of the territory of the LDNR.

Phase 1 is what Shoigu wants - DNR and LNR full liberation (which makes sense it is where Ukraines entire military is, or at least all their trained and tested soldiers).  After that, Phase 2.  Possibly around Odessa and others.  Kiev area will be last I believe unless they do decide to go west to Lviv.

Mike this was already explained

It's not just that Shoigu wants or does not want ,

In ww2 and any war in Ukraine, the donetsk basin was always the first part to be liberated, followed by the south, and then Kharkov and Kiev, and then the west Bank

So Russia is implementing the strategy of Ukrainian war, as template by Soviet Union and Russian empire before that

In this case the template is being followed to a T. The south was liberated, and now Donetsk,

After this it will be Kharkov and then Kiev, like clockwork

Of course from Kharkhov you have Poltava, Dnipro, and Zhaporizhia, all this is already recorded in Ww2 operations for how to proceed with offensive in Ukraine

This agreement simplifies it, and allows the Russian military to proceed in organized manner

As I wrote before, it's the equivalent to saying, agree that we won't beat your ass here, but we will do it there instead

How come I never heard of this before?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

30 crowdfunded Ukrainian superheroes on quadbikes defeated the 40 mile Russian convoy north of Kiev, apparently.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:How come I never heard of this before?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

30 crowdfunded Ukrainian superheroes on quadbikes defeated the 40 mile Russian convoy north of Kiev, apparently.

Maybe because it didn't happen? This war is a made for TV event in some circles... or video game for the younger crowd.

For all those who still don't understand the Russians strategy and tactics used here. Read this American retired officer trying to explain it to his compatriots. PS he does get it right and has all along.

https://twitter.com/RealScottRitter

flamming_python wrote:The flag of the DNR and Russia was raised on an administration building in Mariupol, the hymn was switched on, and a local crowd gathered to celebrate and voice their opinions about Zelensky.
Touching..

Thanks for sharing.

If I was in their place I would hate both Ukraine and Russia for turning my hometown into warzone, I wouldn't even think about geopolitics, would hate the whole ordeal.

To win hearts and minds Russia needs to open its pocket and start rebuilding Mariupol ASAP and make it better than what it was before the war. I can only hope it is possible with such destruction and economic situation.

Regular wrote:

flamming_python wrote:The flag of the DNR and Russia was raised on an administration building in Mariupol, the hymn was switched on, and a local crowd gathered to celebrate and voice their opinions about Zelensky.
Touching..

Thanks for sharing.

If I was in their place I would hate both Ukraine and Russia for turning my hometown into warzone, I wouldn't even think about geopolitics, would hate the whole ordeal.  

To win hearts and minds Russia needs to open its pocket and start rebuilding Mariupol ASAP and make it better than what it was before the war. I can only hope it is possible with such destruction and economic situation.

Hence why the operation failed before it even started

What was Russia's plan for dealing with the Azov Nazis in Mariupol? Open humanitarian corridors, like they're some Islamist rebels in Aleppo, in the hopes that they will put on civilian clothing and file out?

These are highly motivated, experienced war criminals, who are part of the armed forces of an internationally recognized government, with full Western backing. And they've always been confident that the West will find a way to extract them, after they caused Mariupol to be completely destroyed - which is now what Macron is aiming to do.

Now Mariupol is scorched Earth, over a thousand dead civilians most likely, judging by the corpses reportedly hanging out in each residential courtyard, and I doubt most will really be thankful to Russia for such 'liberation'.
They may have hated these Azov fucks, but they didn't want their homes destroyed, livelyhoods ruined, relatives killed. They would have liked Russia to be smarter. If I was in their position anyway, I don't know how they really think. All we have here is a few old people on this vid.

The Ukraine and its Western backers have completely outplayed Russia here, and in the war in general. Russia which has completely underestimated everything and everyone. I've already talked about this

And what now? Turn Kharkov into another warzone, Nikolayev, Odessa?

I can only propose a new method of clearing cities

Drone swarms with suicide explosives, PKMs, sniper rifles, and RPOs/RPGs

Send a fleet of them out and hunt the enemy down in every occupied residential building, trench, dug-out, everywhere.

This bullshit with Su-25s, Grads, tanks, Russian and Chechen infantry climbing around ruins Stalker style - should have ended with Grozny.
Now they just remade Grozny 2.0

I remember one guy from Mariupol or formerly from there, talking about how the Russian army are professionals and will sweep the city without getting innocents killed. My ass.

Yuri Podolyaka: Stop the panic. Everything will be fine. Victory will be ours !




FP; go **** yourself !!

Podlodka77 wrote:Yuri Podolyaka: Stop the panic. Everything will be fine. Victory will be ours !




FP; go **** yourself !!

Podolyaka has been acting like he's the grey cardinal of the Kremlin and directing the pace of events himself. "The Russian leadership needs to listen to me!"

Fact is he's a smart guy but ultimately just another info-war tool. He can't vouch for shit.

But I agree that we probably won't see a ceasefire, if for no other reason other than that administrations in Kherson and part of Zaporozhie have already been created

For me this negotiations look like what the Americans tried to do with Serbia before the 1999 war. Sign here and we´re free to move anywhere in "your" country. If the Elenskiy regime signs the 3 conditions, including Demilitarization and Denazification, that would mean that all parties currently in the Kiev parliament will be banned, most members would go to jail. Russian troops/police would be everywhere and arrest Nazi thugs for war crimes, destroying whats left of military installations and factories. It seems the Kiev regime doesn´t understand this or tries to ignore the fineprint.

For the EU membership. The EU will loose any interest, because "Ukraine" (size and location of that state are also in the fineprint of any agreement) can´t be in NATO. And it will most likely be forced to use the Ruble as currency. This would mean an indirect membership in the EU for Russia, which then could block any decisions, future sanctions and so on.

The west will try to sell the troop rotation (which was part of the plan anyway) as a huge victory, but in reality their client regime lost 75% of it´s heavy weaponry, fuel depots and so on. And the strikes won´t end. And if Elenskyi´s forces attack Russian troops in the Kiev area, the VKS will accelerate their work.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:How come I never heard of this before?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

30 crowdfunded Ukrainian superheroes on quadbikes defeated the 40 mile Russian convoy north of Kiev, apparently.

Send it to wallet83 and RTN they're all over this stuff

flamming_python wrote:

Podlodka77 wrote:Yuri Podolyaka: Stop the panic. Everything will be fine. Victory will be ours !




FP; go **** yourself !!

Podolyaka has been acting like he's the grey cardinal of the Kremlin and directing the pace of events himself. "The Russian leadership needs to listen to me!"

Fact is he's a smart guy but ultimately just another info-war tool. He can't vouch for shit.

But I agree that we probably won't see a ceasefire, if for no other reason other than that administrations in Kherson and part of Zaporozhie have already been created

You are not a man with good intentions because a man who calls Putin a "murderer" cannot be a well-meaning man.
It doesn't help that sometimes you write something reasonable because in a short time you will show your true face AGAIN ! Man, I'm a Serb and we Serbs can easily see the hypocrite.

Its possible the EU and NATO know of the NAZI problem in Ukraine and pretty much manipulated Russia into dealing with it for them and paying the political price, because they essentially had no tools or political will to do it. So they get the bonus of getting control of the EU and making Europe dependent on the USA and unable to compete with the US for at least a decade due to high energy costs. AND force feed expensive US LNG To Germany. While this will rise gas prices in N. America, LNG will always be about 50% higher then piped gas.

Podlodka77 wrote:
You are not a man with good intentions because a man who calls Putin a "murderer" cannot be a well-meaning man.
It doesn't help that sometimes you write something reasonable because in a short time you will show your true face AGAIN ! Man, I'm a Serb and we Serbs can easily see the hypocrite.

Screw that guy

He created the situation, or let it happen, then didn't figure out a clever way solve it over 8 years, and finally decided to solve it through war - and fk'd it up on that count too.

And I will forever blame Putin for it. Even if the Kiev regime did everything in its power to turn Ukrainians against Russia; Putin did nothing in his power to dissuade them from the notion that he's a 2-bit conqueror who wants to absorb their territory into Russia and through warfare.

Lenin had no problems dislodging a similar Western puppet state in the Ukraine in 1918. Granted the Germans who created it were themselves collapsing, and puppet Ukraine hadn't been around for a long time - but nevertheless what Lenin was offering had appeal, and the Red Army was used effectively.

Hole wrote: And if Elenskyi´s forces attack Russian troops in the Kiev area, the VKS will accelerate their work.

Exactly. The ukie forces are holed up in the cities, means, they are purely defending. If they want to go offensive to break the Russian blockade, they will need a numerical superiority they don't have, ammo and fuel that have been destroyed, and they will break cover and be exposed to artillery and VKS. So Russia can easily remove a substantial amount of shock troops from the more or less frozen fronts already existing without losing anything and reinforce Donbass, were numbers indeed are needed. In particular in the South, where the offensive is advancing very slowly and not closing the encirclement, plus probably storming of Pavlograd will be necessary. Plus released forces from Mariupol means Russia wants to be done with the Donbass asap. So much for the umpteenth Russian defeat at the negotiation table

Mir wrote:

VARGR198 wrote:

https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1508569968203509761

Not quite so secret though. This once off prototype was a 90's product mainly intended for the export market.

That looks like the t-72AMT captured a few days ago.

Podlodka77 wrote:You are not a man with good intentions because a man who calls Putin a "murderer" cannot be a well-meaning man.
It doesn't help that sometimes you write something reasonable because in a short time you will show your true face AGAIN ! Man, I'm a Serb and we Serbs can easily see the hypocrite.

He is doing an excellent job vaccinating normal people against snakes like him, that superficially keep the forms and are not so easy to discern to many. The kind of travel companion that will exchange nice words with you during the day but empty the tank at night. I don't understand why anybody is still answering to his fallacies...