Russian special military operation in Ukraine #11

Hole wrote:

The Moskva just entered Sevastopol under her own power.

Regular wrote:

Serberus wrote:https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/463
I always have reservations about videos like this and their authenticity, but this conflict has produced some strange things indeed.
Supposedly a regime soldier selling US acquired weapons to DNR

Camera angles Looks like a parody, no doubt this has happened especially in 2014. But why would you film and expose supplier? He could be identified in 3 seconds. Also, it's NLAW, not UK Javelin.

Most likely DNR guys making fun of Ukrainians with their trophies.

Isos wrote:

Any picture ?

Nothing on twitter yet.

Isos wrote:Russia is claiming no missile attack but ammo exploded after a fire happened.

That's plausible since ukrainians were saying the ship has sunk when in fact it wasn't. That means they have no idea where the Moskva which suggest they can't track it on radar.

Isos wrote:Russia is claiming no missile attack but ammo exploded after a fire happened.

That's plausible since ukrainians were saying the ship has sunk when in fact it wasn't. That means they have no idea where the Moskva is which suggests they can't track it on radar so they had no fire solution for their missiles.

lyle6 wrote:

ALAMO wrote:

By the way: is it only me, or a guy speaks some funglish instead of English ?!?

He's British.

kvs wrote:It appears there were casualties in the Moskva incident and around 20 sailors are missing with under 5 deceased.   I will not vouch for
the details.  It is possible it was a missile strike but not by Neptune missiles.   Maybe some of the weapons shipped over in the last
couple of weeks.

Serberus wrote:

Isos wrote:Russia is claiming no missile attack but ammo exploded after a fire happened.

That's plausible since ukrainians were saying the ship has sunk when in fact it wasn't. That means they have no idea where the Moskva is which suggests they can't track it on radar so they had no fire solution for their missiles.

This didn’t age well, alongside most of their propaganda
These people seem to live in an alternate reality

Missile defeat of the cruiser "Moskva" opens a new stage of hostilities in Ukraine

The priority direction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the support of NATO is the South of Ukraine in the direction of Crimea and Donbass

The situation around the attack on the cruiser Moskva has two dimensions:
military-technical and social-media.

The military-technical part of this situation was most fully described by the author of the Atomic Cherry channel, I recommend reading, a bright and deep mind that rarely makes mistakes in assessments.

I can only add to the above the unpreparedness of the Russian fleet for active operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which lies in the weak intelligence and analytical capabilities of the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian IMF.

After 50 days of operation, of which half the time we observe an increasing scale and pace of enemy activity, there is no reflection.

Once again, we are faced with a critical underestimation of the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The cruiser had no cover and acted alone, which is already quite a dangerous occupation.

So far, everything suggests that the ship was hit in the course of a combined attack involving a UAV and the Ukrainian anti-ship missile "Neptune" with the direct support of NATO (primarily in reconnaissance and target designation).

It is difficult to say what chances a ship had without cover with outdated radar and air defense in such conditions.

In the general picture of what happened, two points are of interest:

1. Did NATO reconnaissance aircraft take part in continuous illumination of the target, or only gave exact coordinates.
The first option already speaks of the direct participation of the British Air Force in the military operation against the Moskva missile cruiser.

2. Were Turkish Bayraktar UAVs used in the attack on the ship. It can also sharply lower the degree of relations between Turkey and Russia.

Once again, we have received a painful lesson in competent and accurate planning of an operation, unified and effective management of forces and means, which is critically lacking in the RF Armed Forces.

The media and public reflection is extremely surprising.
The media are trying to explain Ukraine's success as some kind of NATO miracle weapon, missiles that were able to magically hit the ship.

This cargo cult, the magical perception of war, takes society even further away from reality.


Russia suffered a serious symbolic and military defeat.

And if the loss of the first large ship (BDK) could be attributed to an accident, then the loss of the second is already a pattern that speaks of a dangerous underestimation of the enemy.

What conclusions and forecasts can we come to at the moment:

1. The naval blockade of Ukrainian ports is under threat. The Black Sea Fleet, due to its small number, cannot continue to lose surface ships.
We need to look for other means to keep the coast and Ukrainian ports under control.

2. Attacks on the Black Sea Fleet will continue, primarily by the NSM anti-ship missiles, whose range (up to 200 km) allows you to hit the ships of the Black Sea Fleet in almost the entire Black Sea, including the Crimean coast.
The Black Sea Fleet will be squeezed out of the Black Sea towards the coast of the peninsula.

3. The main direction of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the South of Ukraine - Kherson and Nikolaev regions.
Britain has repeatedly made it clear that the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, primarily Odessa, are of strategic value to them.

The Donbass is also being strengthened as a tool for the depletion of Russian and allied forces. The grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which has been strengthening for seven years, is far from exhaustion.

4. The second center of power is the Dnepropetrovsk region, as the political center of the South, which binds all the surrounding regions.

5. Crimea becomes a priority target for UAF and NATO operations. This confirms the "bold" statement by the Pentagon that the United States will provide Kiev with intelligence information on targets in the Crimea and Donbass.

Not only the Black Sea Fleet will be hit, but also the objects and forces of the Crimean ground group.
It is critically important for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to paralyze the logistics and replenishment of the "southern" grouping of the RF Armed Forces, operating from Kherson. @genshab

flamming_python wrote:

kvs wrote:It appears there were casualties in the Moskva incident and around 20 sailors are missing with under 5 deceased.   I will not vouch for
the details.  It is possible it was a missile strike but not by Neptune missiles.   Maybe some of the weapons shipped over in the last
couple of weeks.

Now Putin has to put his actions where his mouth is. Unfortunately the Ukrainians probably anticipate this and will flood whatever command centre with civilians. Such retaliatory measures should not be proclaimed, they should simply be done. The enemy will understand perfectly well.

Of course all the proper command centres, and the high-up Ukrainian generals as well - are all on NATO territory I suspect.

caveat emptor wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

kvs wrote:It appears there were casualties in the Moskva incident and around 20 sailors are missing with under 5 deceased.   I will not vouch for
the details.  It is possible it was a missile strike but not by Neptune missiles.   Maybe some of the weapons shipped over in the last
couple of weeks.

Now Putin has to put his actions where his mouth is. Unfortunately the Ukrainians probably anticipate this and will flood whatever command centre with civilians. Such retaliatory measures should not be proclaimed, they should simply be done. The enemy will understand perfectly well.

Of course all the proper command centres, and the high-up Ukrainian generals as well - are all on NATO territory I suspect.

It is little outside the subject, but still relevant. Do you see Putin and team around him, as a right choice to get Russia through all this? I don't think only war w Ukraine, but whole economic and possible proxy wars with the West, in the future.
I would appreciate your input, you being a Russian that lives in the country.

ALAMO wrote:

Serberus wrote:

lyle6 wrote:

ALAMO wrote:

By the way: is it only me, or a guy speaks some funglish instead of English ?!?

He's British.

Sounds a bit strange to me as well, beyond being British… could be from shock or getting a few right hooks, but my first thought was he might have a speech impediment.

That is my point.
I would say he speaks crappy with eastern accent.
Let's some native English lads give us a hint.

flamming_python wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

kvs wrote:It appears there were casualties in the Moskva incident and around 20 sailors are missing with under 5 deceased.   I will not vouch for
the details.  It is possible it was a missile strike but not by Neptune missiles.   Maybe some of the weapons shipped over in the last
couple of weeks.

Now Putin has to put his actions where his mouth is. Unfortunately the Ukrainians probably anticipate this and will flood whatever command centre with civilians. Such retaliatory measures should not be proclaimed, they should simply be done. The enemy will understand perfectly well.

Of course all the proper command centres, and the high-up Ukrainian generals as well - are all on NATO territory I suspect.

It is little outside the subject, but still relevant. Do you see Putin and team around him, as a right choice to get Russia through all this? I don't think only war w Ukraine, but whole economic and possible proxy wars with the West, in the future.
I would appreciate your input, you being a Russian that lives in the country.

I don't think we have a choice with our leadership, so it's not a matter of it being a right choice.

One thing I really don't like about Putin is that he never admits his mistakes. As if he and his team never make them.
And he doesn't trust his own people. What he says here or there is true, but there's a lot of things he leaves out.

Basically Putin and co. were doing fine in the passive phase of the confrontation, but now we're onto an active phase. Putin has resigned himself to a figurehead role, while leaving other people to voice different things - Peskov, Lavrov, Kadyrov, Medvedev.
I can see why its done - there are external diplomatic calculations to be made as well. But it doesn't bode too well considering the actual seriousness of the situation.

The war is being fought like a crusade. I think this is the right approach, and will serve to build support among the Ukrainian population as well. But bluffs need not be voiced - they'll be called. Simply do it, if you're going to do it. And no more underestimation of the enemy.