Russian special military operation in Ukraine #13

Reports of a missile strike on the railway bridge near Zatoka, southwest of Odessa.

It's the only bridge linking southern Odessa oblast to the rest of Ukraine, and has been the route that fuel/ammo from Romania and Bulgaria has taken.

franco wrote:

Hole wrote:Only to "rescue" the heavier weapons onboard. Ship itself is to old.


New western volunteers.

So can he fit into a BTR or BMP?

He is there to hit tanks. They will just drop him from the 3rd floor.

There are reports that the whole country tilted a few centimetres as he entered it.

Isos wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Hole wrote:

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Another cruise missile volley incoming. Third run in 24 hours, think that's a first.

But Bellingcat claimed Russia is runnig out of missiles! They wouldn´t lie.

They ARE...but you know they have these things called "FACTORIES" lol

Actually US MoD said Russia has still most of its stock of missiles like last week.

Belingcat is a trash source created by UK and some dumbass gay jeyboard wartior, tge same as those osint accounts on twitter. Not worth even mentioning their lies here.

Sarcasm is not very strong here.

Repair facility for old stuff was seized

Arrow wrote:

Ukrainian forces may try to enter the Transnistria.

No, its a Uke hope to distract from Donbass.

ALAMO wrote:

And how in detail would that change situation, considering that both France and th UK has own nukes?

The huge difference is that it is not France and not UK that are pushing or even capable of pushing a confrontation between NATO and Russia. They also have no tactical nukes in Poland and Poland wouldn't accept French tactical nukes in their country, while the US can do as they like in the occupied countries. The US was also the only country that ever used Nukes and it was not a military target. They have little to lose if they use tactical nukes while the retaliation would be immediate targeting PONOS countries not the US.

ALAMO wrote:
Sometimes the expectations of your Russian audience amaze me, even considering that I am pro-Russian in general.
The same applies to the demand for NATO to get back into pre-1999 borders.
It is simply not wise.
Russia was unable to stop that process back then, it was the sole decision of sovereign countries, and that is the end of the story.
How far with revisionism are we going?
OK, let's consider that this is a negotiation stand, and both sides can move in both directions - I agree.
But at the moment, and considering the effect of the ongoing operation, it will be Russia in heavy advantage over NATO.
With Crimea, Russia controls the whole Black Sea, and reaches deep into both Romania and Bulgaria.
As soon as they will take Odessa - and that is a matter of time rather than a decision in my opinion - they will landlock the remains of Ukr, granting it's economic and social misery. Russian security playground will be the remains of Ukraine, weak NATO countries and Moldova. With Belarus effectively outflanking&blocking any attempts of land operation. Kaliningrad enclave is there, and can be reached in 2 days if needed with a land corridor.
It is Russia that operates the weapon capable to attack any target in Europe without leaving its own territory, airspace or sea.
The whole Europe air defense is weaker than the Ukrainian one. Systems are incapable to deal with both hypersonic and cruise weapons.
The coverage against UAVs, ballistic and cruise missiles, and tube artillery is nonexisting.
Sure that it is a very good position to start negotiate, but sometimes one can push too hard.

Russia is suffering and fighting an EXISTENTIAL war and we are already in WW3. It is a NATO vs Russia war and currently concentrated in the Ukraine, but the chances it will spread do exist and they are tip-toeing around this possibility.
Russia needs to demand a lot and these "lot" will be initiation of the End of NATO just like Putin initiated the End and downfall of the US Empire.

One drink on me once Poland or Turkey will leave/pushed to leave NATO!

ALAMO wrote:
It is a really good time for Moscow to stop shaking the saber, and present a nice face of mutual interests.
Sure the EU politicians will ignore that, but there are elections around.
They won't be able to ignore that forever.

I am not sure how this will be done, but currently the West is doing more harm to itself and you should never interrupt your enemy doing mistakes. The US and Ukrops are trying to sanction Germany for not stopping buying russian gas. That alone should be a quite a good sign to average people who is a friend and who is not. I know germans are immune and they will end up in WW3 how they started WW2, because they are just to zombified in being the "good guys", but the rest of EU countries might slightly change their course. I have little hope and I see european War scenario as vivid as I see who is the creator of this mess.

ucmvulcan wrote:

Arrow wrote:

Ukrainian forces may try to enter the Transnistria.

No, its a Uke hope to distract from Donbass.  

How many troops does Russia have stationed there?

Gonzalo Lira @GonzaloLira1968

Quick recap for those who haven't followed what's been going on in Ukraine but want to understand:

02/24: The Russians invaded from the south, south-east, east and north, in a lightning campaign.

The Russians invaded with 190K troops—against 250K combat troops from Ukraine.

The RF put 30K troops near Kiev—nowhere near enough to capture the city—but enough to pin down some 100K AFU defenders.

The RF also launched several axes of attack, with reinforcements on standby (including a famed 40km long tank column), to see where they might be needed.

Crucially—the Russian's blitz on several axes pre-empted an imminent UKRAINIAN blitzkrieg.

►The AFU had been about to invade the Donbas

This was the immediate motivation for Russia's invasion: To beat them to the punch and scuttle Ukraine's imminent invasion—which they did

Also, by attacking from the north and south, the Russians disrupted weapons supply chain from NATO.

Had the RF only attacked in the east to prevent the AFU invasion of Donbas, there would have been an open corridor for resupply from the West.

Threatening Kiev stopped that.

So the main AFU army was left stranded in east Ukraine, with the rest of the Ukr. forces isolated and pinned down—with no easy resupply from the West

The RF then went about hitting AFU command/control and resupply links, further isolating and immobilizing Ukrainian forces.

The Russians soon nominally controlled land the size of the UK in Ukraine—but it was a tenuous control.

The south of Ukraine was more fully in Russia's grip. The AFU around Kherson simply scattered. Mariupol became a clear battleground, as did the Donbas proper.

What the Russians initially wanted was to:

►Short-circuit the imminent Donbas invasion—which they did.

►Scare the Zelensky regime into negotiating a political settlement—which they failed to do.

Kiev had no intention of negotiating a ceasefire—because of orders given to them from Washington: “Fight Russia to the last Ukrainian!”

Also, the Neo-Nazi goons around Zelensky threatened him if he negotiated and surrendered—because they are terrified of the Russians.

So Zelensky launched a massive PR and propaganda campaign, primarily to motivate AFU forces to fight to the death.

Myths were created (Ghost of Kiev), false flags were carried out (Bucha, Kramatorsk)—and relentless media stories were flogged relentlessly.

The Russians kept negotiating—and trying to NOT destroy Ukraine infrastructure. In fact at first they were even trying to minimize AFU casualties.

The evidence for this is overwhelming: The RF did not hit civilian infrastructure—water, electric, phone, transportation.

They did not hit AFU barracks, command centers, government buildings, etc.

The Russians' initial priority was for a *negotiated settlement*.

But by late March, they realized this was impossible.

This is why the RF withdrew from Kiev. There was no sense putting men near the city when they were not doing what they were supposed to—putting political pressure on the Zelensky regime to negotiate.

This withdrawal was claimed as a “victory” in the “Battle of Kiev”! lmao

Starting in late March, the Russians pulled back and solidified their control over the area they had captured, ceding to the AFU areas that were either pointless to or potentially too costly to control.

The Ukraine propaganda machine called all these pull-backs “victories”.

There was still a glimmer that the war might end in a negotiated settlement—but that ended in early April.

After the Istanbul talks of 3/30, the Ukraine side gingerly agreed to some compromises—but within a week publicly disavowed those concessions.

That's when the Russians realized the Zelensky regime was agreement-incapable: Their Washington masters—Victoria Nuland and Anthony Blinken in particular—wouldn't allow a peace.

They want this war to sap Russia dry. It is a classic proxy war—and Ukraine will pay the price.

Something else the Russians realized: Sanctions.

They hurt—but Russia bounced back with remarkable speed. They didn't really hurt that bad.

But the theft of Russia's $300 billion in foreign reserves by the West DID hurt—badly.

The Russians realized they were in a total war with the West—and since their foreign reserves were lost forever (likely to be pilfered by corrupt Western politicos), the Russians now have nothing left to lose.

By stealing their reserves, the West lost all power over Russia.

This has sealed Ukraine's fate:

The Russians now have no incentive to give up what they have conquered. It has cost them too much—in terms of men and treasure.

And they know that they can't negotiate a ceasefire—the Zelensky regime will simply break it later.

Which means—

The Russians intend to conquer and permanently annex all the south and east of Ukraine.

This is why their strategy on the battlefield has dramatically shifted: Now they are carrying out a slow, methodical grinding down and destruction of the AFU.

The war in the first 30 days was speed—feints—nominally capturing vast swathes of Ukraine territory, with the aim of pressuring the Zelensky regime into a negotiated settlement.

But the West's total financial and political break with Russia means they have nothing to lose.

And they have a lot to gain: The Donbas is mineral rich, the really productive farmlands of Ukraine are in the east and south, Kharkov is a major industrial city, the Sea of Azov has untold natural gas reserves.

And besides—the people love them.

Why would the Russians now give up this hard-won prize?

And they *have* won—make no mistake. Ask any military man who is not a system pig, he'll tell you: There is no way for the AFU to retake their country. They have no armor, no air defense, no fuel, no comms—it's over.

The great tragedy is that so many THOUSANDS of young men will die—and die NEEDLESSLY!!—in order to postpone the inevitable.

These brave boys will have fought so valiantly—and died so young, so cruelly—because of the evil of the Zelensky regime.

That's the hard truth.

And in the end, this will be the map that will remain—a bitter image of Ukraine's future.

Russia will pour billions into their newly acquired territory. It will prosper and flourish.

But the rump-state of Ukraine will be left poor, destroyed, forgotten—

A tragedy.

NOTE: most should be familiar with the author. Good insight, but then I'm prejudice as it mirrors a lot of my own.

Serberus wrote:

ucmvulcan wrote:

Arrow wrote:

Ukrainian forces may try to enter the Transnistria.

No, its a Uke hope to distract from Donbass.  

How many troops does Russia have stationed there?

1500 Russian troops and 7,000 local militia.

mnztr wrote:Is anyone else puzzled why it took so long for Russia to act to take out the rail network in Ukraine? Its something you can take out, and keep easily fixable for the future. But allowing this aid in to kill Russian boys is negligence IMHO. All incoming lines from the west need to be blown. Sections of highway should also be hit with buker busters so they are taken out for a few weeks, and any attempts to fix them attacked. Each truck if aid could me 5-10 dead russians or worse. WTF is Modova sending oil in? Shut of their power if they don't agree to stop.

It took the time needed.   The heavy equipment NATzO sent over was not making its way to the east four weeks ago.   Russia
waited until it was worth hitting.   The civilian situation has been a prime consideration from the start of this operation.   Taking
out the railway network also takes out some of the food distribution network.    The USSR used railways to move food around and
long range trucking was not as intense as in the USA where it has replaced the railway transport.

Werewolf wrote:

ALAMO wrote:

And how in detail would that change situation, considering that both France and th UK has own nukes?

The huge difference is that it is not France and not UK that are pushing or even capable of pushing a confrontation between NATO and Russia. They also have no tactical nukes in Poland and Poland wouldn't accept French tactical nukes in their country, while the US can do as they like in the occupied countries. The US was also the only country that ever used Nukes and it was not a military target. They have little to lose if they use tactical nukes while the retaliation would be immediate targeting PONOS countries not the US.

Pretty sure that I remember reading Putin warning the US, that if nukes were being used in Europe that they would also be used in the US of A.

If Bryansk was a drone attack, that would mean that AA defences were asleep at the wheel or their coverage is not sufficient. Bryansk is not exactly right next to the border, like Belgorod is. It is about 100 km in straight line from closest point.

Drones are difficult targets for any country... for a country with borders the size of Russia even more so...

The cost of himars is irrelevant as Ukraine is getting it for free.

Not even close to free... they are paying in blood and it sounds like they are paying a lot.

Says who?

Russia routinely targeted mixed military/civilian convoys in Syria, this would be nothing new

What's so special about Nazi Ukrainians that makes them entitled to special treatment?

Plus lots of young men in civilian clothes travelling towards a war zone front line in a train carrying munitions is a bit suspect... if it is women and little old ladies it is just as suspect to be honest.

Does that word salad imply a Russian false flag or simply a sabotage op by the Ukies.

Russia doesn't need to do false flags.... that is the wests game... if Putin decides to hit Kiev or their military believes that is necessary they don't need to make up any excuse to do so... that is as ridiculous as a count down from 10 when launching a rocket... it is an American thing.

Some people don't like to have the sanctity of their butthole breached.

That is kinda normal outside the new west there buddy...

Call it pure masculine machoism. Others clearly, by their own words don't mind a finger or two doing work, as long as they can reciprocate in a disproportionate manner.

It's not just "Gayto" after all. Surprise.

Well describing a military operation in such terms reveals the truth in that regard does it not?

Time for these fellas to give up really. No glory to be had in being taken out by a 152mm shell that you don't even hear or see coming

But they aren't... by your own post they are not anti war at all they are back home safe and sound trying to drum up money to get more Orcs killed... seems there is no compassion for Ukrainians at all... it was just their chance to get some glory killing some Russians that failed miserably.

Why would anyone reasonably expect that these people would have a worse opinion of their own extended kin than of "dirty Slavs".

When there is US dollars in it most would likely kill their own mother... just like the Russians in the Ukraine currently are.

But it's complicated for a country like Pakistan to be openly aligned with the US.

I would say considering their neighbour is India and Indias relationship with Russia that Pakistan would be rather less likely to have good relations with Russia than with the US... but it seems murdering Pakistanis with drones and screwing Afghanistan up again has probably made them realise they don't really have a great future with the US... all this time with US support being anti Indian hasn't really brought them much peace or development, and they can see what the US does for Kiev and realise if they got into a conflict with India that the US would be just as useless for them.

Maybe the west is the problem and Russia and China and India and Pakistan could work together to sort of some sort of agreement and development and growth plans to help deal with some of their biggest problems.

Russia can't be lazy, and Kiev doesn't give a damn about Peskovs "threats".

It is not about being lazy... the Russian border is rather better protected than HATOs borders...

Looks like some flight control system failure. No smoke, nothing, just a flatspin.

Under normal circumstances it should be easily recoverable, but technical failures do occur.

The US lost 3 F-111s in Vietnam before they worked out there was a design fault with the aircraft that only revealed itself in combat missions.

I wonder what will happen to the 15 Su-35 produced for the Egyptian Air Force. BMPD Livejournal has already written that their assumption is that these planes will be handed over to the Russian Air Force.

Would likely need a lot of the Avionics taken out and swapped for Russian AF standard stuff.

Or they could gift them to Iran maybe?

Well, my opinion is, that Russkies hold the missile stock just in case if NATO would think of doing something stupid.

Pretty sure the missiles for HATO will have different payloads.

Chess is a game... war is not a game.

This means USA does not have too good intelligence on Russia. They don't have sources which would know what is really going on in MOD.

The US has had bad intel on Russia since the end of the cold war.

But there does not seem to be any consequences for the intel community.

New western volunteers.

You make fun but as long as you have water he wont need to eat for a month which would be ideal for seige warfare... and over time his body armour will offer better and better protection for him.

So can he fit into a BTR or BMP?

I am guessing one of those will be his nickname...

It's become a bit of a trope to label things as "Orwellian" but this behavior was literally what Orwell, as a war correspondent observed in 1936 and based his subsequent dystopian novels on.

The irony is that all that they needed to do to completely corrupt the west was corrupt the media and allow the 1% to control and own it... then you can say anything you like...

Belingcat is a trash source created by UK and some dumbass gay jeyboard wartior, tge same as those osint accounts on twitter. Not worth even mentioning their lies here.

Bellingcat is a place for ex UK spooks to get nice cushy jobs funded by the UK government to do things the UK government can't do legally itself, they are an intel blackwater... find dirt... or make up dirt on a political opponent in the UK or anywhere in the EU... bellingcat... only cost 100 million pounds... of taxpayers money.

The OSCE staff in Mariupol abandoned their archive. All OSCE field reports since 2014 were found, with reportedly thousands of Ukrainian war crimes that were documented, but which were not reported by the OSCE in their official documents.

So the people on the ground were doing their job but the management was deciding what got made official and what just sat in the archives... right...

UAV ( a small one) can be adapted to land on rail_track and plant a device! This device is small and sits under or beside the rail. Designed to work, when train makes contact, with wheels. Can land anywhere in Europe, especially near border area. No need to waste missiles or planes flying over. Same with Roads, land beside Road and drop a Rock. Wait for " lethal aid" to pass by!

Cruise missile can fly down train lines till it reaches an engine and boom... trains are not hard to hit.

Even near a corner you could place a bomb on the side away from the track and hidden and as the train comes the force of the explosion can derail the train on the corner...

F***, it's gonna happen isn't it? We're going to stumble into thermonuclear apocalypse aren't we?

Western leaders are idiots... they didn't listen to Putins red lines before.... in fact they made fun of them... have they learned... they don't seem to have...

Still talking about Kiev winning...

* GARRY, please add the swastika among the smilies so I can hang it every time I mention Banderistan.

Never seen a swastika in an emoji list... don't want one on this forum...

Is anyone else puzzled why it took so long for Russia to act to take out the rail network in Ukraine?

Hard to say for sure but would guess attacks on targets in Russia has made them think if things are going to be less comfortable for Russians then Ukrainians are going to have to deal with issues too...

It also would limit the mobility and resupply potential of the Orc Army without having to hit every single train... just hit the power stations that power them.

This will dramatically reduce traffic and the traffic that remains is more likely to be worth hitting as a military target.

Phase 1 was a mistake, no need to overthink it at this point. Russians were reluctant to hit fuel storages no long ago as well. This is what happens when you put political goals before military goals. Now it seems the military is in charge of this show (both tempo and targets have changed drastically)

Phase one was about kerosene... not petrol or diesel... they wanted to prevent the Ukrainian airforce doing anything so they hit the hundreds or perhaps thousands of air strips in the country and their fuel and ammo storages nearby... the pincers towards Odessa and Kiev were to stop the rest of the army not on the front line near Donbass from moving anywhere.... over the next few weeks they hit vehicle parks and storage areas and fuel dumps and ammo dumps, escalating over time to include machine shops where armour and weapons are built and repaired... they didn't get the number of surrenders they perhaps hoped for but they clearly have killed plenty of nazis and orcs who might not be nazis but still wanted to shoot some Russians.

I was thinking, Russia must also has in its stock piles in hundreds, if not thousands, of the old Kh-55 cruise missiles manufactured in the 80s and early 90s. Are they also using them? Their range is low compared to the newer KH-101 but certainly can reach all of Ukraine. This should be really cheap way to take out enemy infrastructure compared to using the more expensive Kalibr and Kh-101s.

A post further up the page talked about missiles having obsolete electronics... the irony is that any 286 or 386 or 486 processor from the 1980s is plenty of processing power for what these missiles are doing.

I suspect they will be using older stock missiles first... missiles close to expiry dates. Cruise missiles use jet engines and therefore use kerosene for fuel... they would be stored without fuelled and fuelled up just before loading on to the plane that launches them.

Periodically they will be checked and refurbished with things like batteries replaced and optics cleaned and checked for cracks or damage, but most will just sit in storage happily for years without needing any modification.

I would think batteries might not even be installed until they are drawn out of storage and have batteries and warheads attached and fuelled up on the flight line before takeoff.

Russia has no definite plans to invade Europe and NATO can only dream of declaring war against Russia. Only armchair generals and PC warriors would advocate a nuclear exchange.

Which is not to say it can't happen.... our current set of leaders set the bar very low for stupid... and continue to create new records...

This possible scenario revolves around a botched S-300F launch, and its not especially relevent as to why a missile was fired.

Its missiles are old and missiles do fail... a missile with faulty rocket fuel lands on the deck and burns... the 150kg HE warhead would not explode because it would not have fused yet but it would also burn too.

And 27 missing sounds like an out of control fire rather than two missile hits.

And how in detail would that change situation, considering that both France and th UK has own nukes?
Sometimes the expectations of your Russian audience amaze me, even considering that I am pro-Russian in general.
The same applies to the demand for NATO to get back into pre-1999 borders.
It is simply not wise.

It is about expectation and balance... when Soviet troops left eastern europe they were expecting the US to pull out of western europe... not move into eastern europe with nukes.

Continued:
https://www.russiadefence.net/t8781-russian-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-14

The Kiev regime was going to attack Crimea and not just the LDNR. Sure, this sounds implausible, but we are not dealing
with a government that cares about Ukraine.

Ukraine in its Soviet borders would have lasted if it did not go off the rails in 2004. The 2014 coup was just a coming out party.
Nobody with a clue or malicious agenda would consider the political vector in Ukraine over the last 20+ years as sane. Russia
was forced to deal with this rotting pustule on its border.