Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14

FP wrote " For now it's still a theoretical possibility. We have to see how the war develops." and GarryB wrote " The only way this could possibly work is if a ceasefire had already been agreed and put in place and boundaries set and Orc forces start withdrawing from places they will not be allowed to stay in if they are nazis and also not locals... but even then HATO might just use such an agreement to restock without being fired at and then restart the conflict so even then it would be patchy..."

The direction and force of any alliance, is determined or resolved by the main  vector. In case of NATO or Western alliance, it is the USA interests that determines the direction that is taken. No need to say that strategic goal of USA is containment of not just Russia, but of the looming Euro- Asian alliance.

What determines international alliances? Is it politics or economics? Yes in the short term, since these change over the medium to long term. But ethnicity is more of a determinant in the long term.

At the present, East Europeans, are in a loose and untested NATO alliance, bound together with transient political and economic factors. But still, they are gathered together sufficiently, to make physical and material moves, on the ground.

There may be some ethnic factors, that may unite the slavic people in Europe, in the longer term. But the dominant political / economic determinant of this alliance is in the USA favour. And as the dominant force in this alliance, it is their interests that will resolve the direction of this alliance.

It is for this reason, that I say, any partition of Ukraine by Russia / Poland, will not end the conflict. But merely offer NATO an easy way to station troops in the west, without a fight. And then use this territory, as a springboard for further attacks against Russian territory.

The reason that for example in Syria, the partition by Russia / USA seems to work, is that the Americans are left without any strong alliances, and Russia has stronger alliances to counteract their force. But in Ukraine, it is the USA, that has alliances, and can also exert more effective pressure against Russian mainland, as opposed to pressure against a military base in Syria, whose loss, unlike Russian territory, is not an existential threat.

For these reasons, waiting and allowing NATO forces to enter west Ukraine, expand Eastward, especially when Ukraine is at war with Russia, and is being supported by them, is not very wise. Allowing them, to then push Eastward later on. No agreement or contract or promise or treaty, can guarantee that they will not use their new positions, for further conquests.

Still west Ukraine, in all likelihood, will not be part of Russian federation. And Russia may not be able or willing to capture these lands. And Ukrainians like others will want to form alliances and arm themselves in the future. But allowing them their own destiny, as and when the war ends, is very different to inviting their backers in, on some false hope or promise of peace, while they are at war with Russia.

Ispan wrote:Little to report today but some encouraging news. Confirmed the pocket on the Oskol reservoir, and seems some breakin is in progress in Avdeyevka, and as I suspected that fortress and Maryinka are meat grinders for the ukrops

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/04/30/parte-de-guerra-30-04-2022/

Part of war 04/30/2022
30 April, 2022 Zhukov

General situation: "The artillery conquers, the infantry occupies"

The key difference between the last five weeks of the special operation and the first two is the sharp reduction in the losses of the Russian army, both killed/wounded and prisoners. The reason lies on the surface: the original tactic, which was established primarily for a quick breakthrough, was rejected and replaced by the tactic of crushing - a slow breakthrough after the preparation of artillery and air strikes. Before the next line of defense of the Ukrainian troops, this advance is stopped, and the main role again passes to artillery and aviation. After the defending Ukrainian troops withdraw or surrender, the advance resumes. Rapid and spectacular breakthroughs are not expected here, but the final result will be more confident.



Izyum Front:

The bag of Ukrainian troops trapped against the Oskol reservoir is confirmed, in the bend it makes, on the west side, apparently it was a Ukrainian group that was left behind and ordered to counterattack against Izyum to be repulsed, fenced on three sides and with the reservoir behind.

It fills me with satisfaction, apart from the tactical success, that my effort to sift and select sources and as far as possible, try to publish truthful and confirmed reports is worthwhile. Sometimes I give news a day or two before it is confirmed by conventional means.

https://topwar.ru/195678-sotni-ukrainskih-boevikov-okazalis-prizhaty-k-beregu-severskogo-donca-na-slavjanskom-napravlenii.html



Reporting by Старше Адды, front-line correspondent,

https://t.me/s/vysokygovorit



"Last night, Ukrainian propaganda threatened Belgorod, promising a great day and a bloodbath. As a result, it all ended with Russian artillery strikes on enemy concentrations in the border forests and missiles on military installations in Kharkov."

"the Ukrainian forces are not abandoning attempts to make a decisive counterattack in the Kharkov direction. Recently, his assault column was partially destroyed, partially scattered in the Kazachaya Lopan area, now the Ukrainian artillery is actively working in this village, including shelling with phosphorus ammunition.

During the night, the ranks of the Ukrainian army were noticeably reduced, and attacks, including with Islander missiles, hit the enemy's concentration areas. In principle, at this moment, any attacking action of the enemy ends with a lot of blood and a retreat to its previous positions.

Attacking is much more difficult than defending. If the Ukrainian army defends itself relatively well in defense and, having numerical superiority, is able to hold a particular locality for some time, then on the other hand offensive actions are a completely different military discipline. Even at the planning level.

Note: As I never tire of repeating, the problem is the lack of intermediate cadres, commands at the battalion level, and even captains for companies. On the other hand, according to numerous reports of prisoners, Ukrainian officers, captains and lieutenants, are terrible, they stay in the rear or leave their men to their fate. The Russians are faced with platoons and sections commanded by improvised non-commissioned officers.



Donetsk Front



Bombardment of fortifications with thermobaric rockets

https://topwar.ru/195646-ispolzovanie-tos-v-rajone-avdeevki-pozvoljaet-unichtozhat-mnogohodovye-ukreplennye-ukrytija-protivnika.html

Somalia shock battalion makes progress on Avdeyevka

https://topwar.ru/195728-batalon-nm-dnr-somali-dostig-uspeha-na-avdeevskom-napravlenii-otbrosiv-sily-protivnika.html

The Times correspondent reports that the Ukrainians have lost two brigades in the defense of Peski

https://topwar.ru/195703-voenkor-the-times-jentoni-lojd-za-dve-nedeli-vsu-poterjali-dve-brigady-v-rajone-poselka-peski.html

The positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces entrenched in the Avdiivka area are methodically shelled every day from the air and on the ground by the allied forces of the DPR People's Militia and the Russian Army. The slow expulsion of the enemy is another confirmation that the Ukrainian units prepared their fortified areas for a long time and, as they say, conscientiously. During the eight years of the war in the Donbas, the Ukrainian troops the industrial zone of Avdeyevka (Promka) has strengthened no worse than the militants in Azovstal. From that, the front line has not yet changed significantly.

But things are not going well for the Ukrainian soldiers. This is what the Times columnist writes, who visited the Ukrainian trenches and heard the stories of fighters who admit that over the past two weeks, the artillery of the allied forces destroyed two Ukrainian brigades.

[...] "It was Tuesday morning. The shelling of the area of positions near the village of Peski began shortly after 6 am and continued at full speed for five hours. First, Russian aircraft made two bombings. Then the Russian tanks advanced 750 meters through open fields to a wooded area and opened fire on the Ukrainian trenches. Then it was the turn of the mortars. [...] The fate of the Ukrainian military is in the hands of an enemy beyond the reach of its weapons.»

Other reports and news of interest

Mariupol: About the obstinacy of the Nazis caught in Avozstal

Voenkor d. Astrakhan:

Many people wonder why the Ukrainian army continues to sit and sabotage any negotiations on the encircled Azovstal. What is the reason for your crazy requests? There are versions about the secrets that they hide in the dungeons. It's about the help they are waiting for.

But I think it's a little more complicated than that. We need to understand who we are dealing with. These are people who have existed for years in an atmosphere of absolute impunity, it is only necessary to say the magic words "we are Nazis" and everything is possible. They were released from the police and courts as teenagers, were exchanged on prisoner exchanges, went out through the "corridors" of the Ilovaysk stock exchange and Donetsk airport. They have never been held responsible for anything, neither for criminal nor military crimes. They were not even subjected to public condemnation, on the contrary, they became heroes of Ukraine.

In the minds of those who are sitting in Azovstal, in principle, there is no feeling that this is the end. That Ada Rogovtseva, Angelina Jolie, the Pope and the delegations of the "twin cities" will come and take them all out of there with banners aloft, and directly to the awards ceremony. Of course, they understand that not everyone can get to see such a moment. But the general defeat and even more so that the survivors will be tried for their crimes, I am absolutely sure, is something inconceivable to them. So they calmly take hostages and wait. From his point of view, everything should end as usual. They simply do not believe that the end can come, this contradicts all their education and life experience of the last 10 years.



Transcarpathia: Hungarians protest against conscription

https://topwar.ru/195721-v-zakarpate-zhenschiny-blokirujut-voenkomaty-protestuja-protiv-otpravki-muzhchin-na-donbass.html

"Today, the Internet and mobile communications have disappeared in the Kherson region, and all operators at once. Neither Lifecell, nor Vodafone, nor Kyivstar is working. At first, residents thought about an accident, but a little later, Vodafone confirmed that this was a planned, coordinated decision by Ukrainian operators.

In fact, this is a direct continuation of the story of the shelling of Kherson by Ukrainian ballistic missiles. In Kiev, they themselves signed that Kherson is not Ukraine, that Ukraine does not need it, and Ukraine will no longer be. At the same time, it is clear that Kiev would like Kherson to repeat the fate of Mariupol much more. I am sure that they are very sorry that the Ukrainian soldiers had to flee the city at such a speed that they did not want to destroy it.

But what's done is done. Kherson is now Russian. And it will be Russian.

https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/35614"

Regular wrote:

PhSt wrote:I'm looking for ways how to forward this information to the FSB, but I don't see any options in the FSB website to relay them any information aside from the contact number that's posted.

http://fsb.ru/

I'm in Canada so I don't think those contact numbers will work for me

Sorry, but what makes you think they don't have such information if this is correct?

You are in Canada and I don't think their authorities would like their citizens contacting Russian services. If plans are actually true and to be carried away, then you just made enemies of gooks and they will want to pull a Harambe/Epstein treatment before any word gets out.

Make no mistake, this forum (as whole clearnet) is monitored, dossiers are being created, and playing secret agent will land you in some hot water.

Also, if Russian secret and security services **** up this (even if they never had such massive **** ups) then paraphrasing Papa - Russia doesn't deserve this event. No one is forcing them to have Victory parade, people would understand if it would be postponed this year, it serves very little compared to the risks.

Too much hype about secret services monitoring internet. That's totally wrong and phisically impossible... And this forum is of no interest since nothing secret or new is posted. Everything comes from links from twitter, telegram and other websites.

I would also feel sorry if there is a guy from FSB or CIA looking it. Same conversations over and over with lot of trolls.

Even on twitter you should have 10 or so accounts worth spying because they seem to have contacts on the front. Rest is garbage.

And the militaries have no need for internet intel. They are using tools you can only dream of. Monitoring social networks is done mostly to monitoring the public and its feelings toward the war or in general which is very usefull for them.

Victory day parade in Moscow is always a high security event.
There won't be anyone in the red square who wouldn't have been checked by FSB beforehand. More so this year.

Likely CIA would try to get their guy in one of the military vehicles taking part in parade and maybe blow it up. They have zero chance of doing it. All the vehicles spend week(s) in training before the actual parade. They are inspected many times, although normally for making sure nothing breaks down during the show. So do all the servicemen in those vehicles. Media covering the events needs to be aggregated and most likely they are carefully selected.

I'm confident USA can't do anything at red square nor to the parade in general. I'm worried about Moscow elsewhere. It's a huge megacity and there are no ways to monitor everything.

Isos wrote:

And the militaries have no need for internet intel. They are using tools you can only dream of. Monitoring social networks is done mostly to monitoring the public and its feelings toward the war or in general which is very usefull for them.

True that militaries have very little use of internet intel, but thanks to Edward Snowden and recent OSINT groups (some pro-Russian guys were arrested) - we know that monitoring even expanded from that. There is no need to have CIA glow-hurreps on every person, AI is doing fine harvesting data to the point that it can detect the same person by writing style.

And some countries criminalized support for Russia so best not to poke out too much.

ucmvulcan wrote:

PhSt wrote:

Checkpoint in Russia’s Kursk region shelled from Ukraine, no one hurt - governor

The Krupets checkpoint in the Kursk Region has come under mortar fire from Ukraine, there are no casualties or destruction, Governor Roman Starovoit wrote on his Telegram channel on Saturday.

"Several mortars have been fired on the Krupets checkpoint in the Rylsk district from Ukraine. No one was killed or injured. There is no destruction," he wrote.

On Friday, the regional governor reported that a border checkpoint in the Rylsk district had been shelled. On April 23, the checkpoint on the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Glushkovo district of the Kursk Region came under mortar fire from Ukraine.

https://tass.com/emergencies/1445937

Any chance of a counter artillery barrage from the Russian side?

Power plant on fire in Sakhalin - governor

April 30. /TASS/. The fire broke out in the GRES-2 power plant in Sakhalin on Saturday morning and the battle against fire continues, Governor of the Sakhalin Region Valery Limarenko said in his Telegram channel.

"Fire extinguishing at the Sakhalin GRES-2 continues in Ilyinskoe Village [where the GRES-2 is located]. According to information of power plant specialists, the flame heats up and the fire moves to the roof. Firemen are working on the site. 14 persons and 5 vehicles are engaged in fire extinguishing," the governor said.

https://tass.com/emergencies/1445779

Another sabotage operation by NATzO assets inside Russia. I demand that Russia explode several American power stations in retaliation, also, Russia needs to kaliber all power stations in Ukrop land to ensure that the entire artificial country is consumed in darkness.


There are leaked reports that NATzO is planning a massacre on Red Square during the upcoming May 9th victory parade, there will be attempts to take out Putin and several high-ranking officials. Apparently the aim of the massacre is to humiliate Russia in front of the world while at the same time decapitating its leadership.

Dear God, don't these fuckers know such an attack on the Moscow Victory Day Parade would instantaneously create the justification for nuclear extinction?

The problem is that Russia has never directly attacked or struck against the West. Not even when the West has attacked Russia. For a Western tit against Russia there has never been a Russian tat in response.

Soviet Union did not retaliate when the West trained and armed the Afghan mujahideen against the Soviets.

Russia did not retaliate when the West economically plundered Russia in the 1990s.

Russia did nothing when the West supported Chechen islamists against Russia in the 1990s.

Russia did not retaliate when Russian ally Serbia was attacked in 1999.

When the West invaded Afghanistan in 2001 Russia did not arm and train Taliban but instead HELPED the West by providing Russia's railways for NATO military cargo.

Russia did nothing when the West invaded Iraq in 2003.

Russia did nothing and ABSTAINED in the UN security council when the West destroyed Libya.

Russia did not retaliate when the United States attacked Russian soldiers (Wagner group) in Syria in 2017 or 2018.

Russia did not retaliate when Turkey shot down Russian military jet in Syria.


A sad fact is that Russia has not shown neither willingness or ability to retaliate when Russia itself or a Russian ally is attacked. The West knows this. And the Kremlin also must know this.

Russia has shown weakness after weakness.

Think of the Navalny thing a couple of years ago. Russia handed Navalny to Germany like Russia was some kind of a slave to Germany. Would Germany have done the same if roles were reversed. Of course not. Russia might have tried to appease Germany and show goodwill then, but Germany saw that as weakness and nothing else.

As for Ukraine, it is the same story.

Russia was caught its pants down in 2014 Maidan coup. Russia had no assets in Ukraine to fight back against the Western backed revolution and was left standing in the sidelines.

Yes, Russia grabbed Crimea (which was great!) but then again showed weakness in Donbass. Places like Mariupol, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk were for the grabs then, but Putin decided to stop the Donbass rebels from taking them. Maybe even Kharkov could have been taken then if Russia got involved militarily.

As for the current war, Russia has drawn "red lines" but has done nothing when those red lines have been crossed.

Before the war started Putin threatened the West with grave consequences if the West interfered. The West started to pour weapons to Ukraine and again Russia did nothing.

Then Russia threatened to take out "decision making" centers in Kiev if Ukraine continues to attack Russian territory. Well, the attacks continued but Russia left Kiev regime intact.

Considering the recent history the West is correct not to take Russia's threats seriously. If the West manages to kill Russian leadership Russia will again do nothing but complain.

There is so much crap this that needs to moved to the talking Bullock's thread, some posters just derail this thread.

The West knows that if it manages to take out Russian leadership Russia will not respond in any kind.

And they are right.

Video of KA-52 shotdown by ATGM.

I wonder when it was dated, but this one is less catastrophic hit of ATGM on KA-52

I can see different control unit, but the same position, even same branches are around, could be same day.

Must be old video as Russian helicopter videos are now consist of helicopters moving when attacking.

It shows that NATO tactics also wouldn't work and gun runs are the way to go.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1520545496451981312

Firebird wrote:


Or are ALL European govts compromised or puppets of Satan?

Yes, not only European too. Most of the world dances for a dollar. Still.

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 17 Ukrainian military assets during the day.

Among them: 8 areas of manpower and equipment concentration, 5 artillery and multiple rocket launcher firing positions, and 2 strong points.

Also destroyed: 1 command post and 1 missile and artillery weapons depot near Pokrovskoe, Dnepropetrovsk Region.

During the day, operational and tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 2 command posts, 9 strong points and areas of manpower and equipment concentration, as well as 5 ammunition and fuel depots.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination over 200 nationalists and 23 armoured vehicles.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 319 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, 12 command posts and 2 missile and artillery weapon depots.

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Su-25 of the Ukrainian Air Force near Chervonyi Yar, Kherson Region.

2 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were also shot down over Vladimirovka and 12 rockets of Smerch multiple-launch rocket system were intercepted near Kamenka, Donetsk People's Republic.

In total, 143 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 660 unmanned aerial vehicles, 279 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,678 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 308 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,196 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,503 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #Briefing
@mod_russia_en

They shipped Hollywood actress Angelina Jolie to Lvov today and turned on air raid sirens especially for her so that they could film her running "for safety". I can't even.

There have been no strikes on Lvov in a while, none today. And of course, none on any public areas at all even in the past.

You know what it reminds me of though? Saakashvili ducking behind body guards on live American TV from Tbilisi, screaming in panic over a supposedly ongoing bomb raid.

Russia did not strike Tbilisi even once during the South Ossetian war, didn't even fly close to it.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:They shipped Hollywood actress Angelina Jolie to Lvov today and turned on air raid sirens especially for her so that they could film her running "for safety". I can't even.

There have been no strikes on Lvov in a while, none today. And of course, none on any public areas at all even in the past.

You know what it reminds me of though? Saakashvili ducking behind body guards on live American TV from Tbilisi, screaming in panic over a supposedly ongoing bomb raid.

Russia did not strike Tbilisi even once during the South Ossetian war, didn't even fly close to it.

Angie Jolie long ago got rid of the only things that gave her any value. . . .

PhSt wrote:There are leaked reports that NATzO is planning a massacre on Red Square during the upcoming May 9th victory parade, there will be attempts to take out Putin and several high-ranking officials. Apparently the aim of the massacre is to humiliate Russia in front of the world while at the same time decapitating its leadership.

Only Eurotrash & NATOstani sock puppets could be stupid enough to think that assassinating Putin would be productive. Such an outrage would only spell the doom for Europe. Russians collectively would simply be enraged and would likely respond as the Murkanz did after 911, except this time it wouldn't be brown-skinned people finding their cities destroyed and their nations taken apart by vengeful foreign troops.

The problem is that these aforementioned sock puppets suffer from Dunning Kruger syndrome, and when "elites" are as dumb as a box of rocks, anything is possible....

This seems like a very low tempo of operations, especially for air and missiles.

Hinex1988 wrote:Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 17 Ukrainian military assets during the day.

Among them: 8 areas of manpower and equipment concentration, 5 artillery and multiple rocket launcher firing positions, and 2 strong points.

Also destroyed: 1 command post and 1 missile and artillery weapons depot near Pokrovskoe, Dnepropetrovsk Region.

During the day, operational and tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 2 command posts, 9 strong points and areas of manpower and equipment concentration, as well as 5 ammunition and fuel depots.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination over 200 nationalists and 23 armoured vehicles.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 319 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, 12 command posts and 2 missile and artillery weapon depots.

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Su-25 of the Ukrainian Air Force near Chervonyi Yar, Kherson Region.

2 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were also shot down over Vladimirovka and 12 rockets of Smerch multiple-launch rocket system were intercepted near Kamenka, Donetsk People's Republic.

In total, 143 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 660 unmanned aerial vehicles, 279 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,678 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 308 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,196 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,503 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #Briefing
@mod_russia_en

RIA Novosti; 00:11 05/01/2022 (updated: 00:15 05/01/2022)

Kherson region moves to the ruble zone

Kherson region from May 1 began the transition to the ruble zone, which will last four months




KHERSON, May 1 - RIA Novosti. The Kherson region of Ukraine, liberated from Ukrainian nationalists, is moving into the ruble zone from May 1, Kirill Stremousov, deputy chairman of the military-civilian administration of the region, head of the committee for saving the Kherson region "For Peace and Order," told RIA Novosti.
The transitional period will take up to four months, during which time the ruble and hryvnia will circulate in the region.

"Then we will switch completely to settlements in rubles," Stremousov stressed.

As the head of the administration of the Kherson region Volodymyr Saldo noted, in the near future the organization of both cash and non-cash cash-money settlements will be handled by the Russian International Settlement Bank.

According to him, the bank has a work permit and already has experience in working on the territory of the DPR and LPR. "We are planning to recruit locals who know the specifics of banking well... The network will be expanded. They plan to create more than 200 branches in the region," said Saldo.

According to the head of administration, now pensioners and partially state employees receive money on cards in hryvnia, but almost all ATMs and cash desks in stores do not accept cards and ask to pay in cash, which creates inconvenience. "Now financial transactions are carried out by 80 percent in cash. This option is completely unacceptable in everyday life," he said.
The Russian military during a special operation to demilitarize Ukraine took control of the entire Kherson region in the south of the country and the Azov part of the Zaporozhye region. Civil-military administrations have been formed in the regions, broadcasting of Russian TV channels and radio has begun, and trade ties with Crimea are being restored.

https://ria.ru/20220501/rubl-1786406008.html

I didn't see any territorial changes on RUS telegram channels today. Did you guys note any?

Karl Haushofer wrote:The West knows that if it manages to take out Russian leadership Russia will  not respond in any kind.

And they are right.

So why don't the West just go ahead and take out the Russian leadership immediately? Considering what you have written, this would be the easiest thing for them to do right?

owais.usmani wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:The West knows that if it manages to take out Russian leadership Russia will  not respond in any kind.

And they are right.

So why don't the West just go ahead and take out the Russian leadership immediately? Considering what you have written, this would be the easiest thing for them to do right?

Because the Russian leadership is comprised of hundreds, if not thousands of well educated, intelligent, government workers, of which Putin is just the figurehead, the CEO if you like.