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FP wrote " For now it's still a theoretical possibility. We have to see how the war develops." and GarryB wrote " The only way this could possibly work is if a ceasefire had already been agreed and put in place and boundaries set and Orc forces start withdrawing from places they will not be allowed to stay in if they are nazis and also not locals... but even then HATO might just use such an agreement to restock without being fired at and then restart the conflict so even then it would be patchy..."
The direction and force of any alliance, is determined or resolved by the main vector. In case of NATO or Western alliance, it is the USA interests that determines the direction that is taken. No need to say that strategic goal of USA is containment of not just Russia, but of the looming Euro- Asian alliance.
What determines international alliances? Is it politics or economics? Yes in the short term, since these change over the medium to long term. But ethnicity is more of a determinant in the long term.
At the present, East Europeans, are in a loose and untested NATO alliance, bound together with transient political and economic factors. But still, they are gathered together sufficiently, to make physical and material moves, on the ground.
There may be some ethnic factors, that may unite the slavic people in Europe, in the longer term. But the dominant political / economic determinant of this alliance is in the USA favour. And as the dominant force in this alliance, it is their interests that will resolve the direction of this alliance.
It is for this reason, that I say, any partition of Ukraine by Russia / Poland, will not end the conflict. But merely offer NATO an easy way to station troops in the west, without a fight. And then use this territory, as a springboard for further attacks against Russian territory.
The reason that for example in Syria, the partition by Russia / USA seems to work, is that the Americans are left without any strong alliances, and Russia has stronger alliances to counteract their force. But in Ukraine, it is the USA, that has alliances, and can also exert more effective pressure against Russian mainland, as opposed to pressure against a military base in Syria, whose loss, unlike Russian territory, is not an existential threat.
For these reasons, waiting and allowing NATO forces to enter west Ukraine, expand Eastward, especially when Ukraine is at war with Russia, and is being supported by them, is not very wise. Allowing them, to then push Eastward later on. No agreement or contract or promise or treaty, can guarantee that they will not use their new positions, for further conquests.
Still west Ukraine, in all likelihood, will not be part of Russian federation. And Russia may not be able or willing to capture these lands. And Ukrainians like others will want to form alliances and arm themselves in the future. But allowing them their own destiny, as and when the war ends, is very different to inviting their backers in, on some false hope or promise of peace, while they are at war with Russia.
The direction and force of any alliance, is determined or resolved by the main vector. In case of NATO or Western alliance, it is the USA interests that determines the direction that is taken. No need to say that strategic goal of USA is containment of not just Russia, but of the looming Euro- Asian alliance.
What determines international alliances? Is it politics or economics? Yes in the short term, since these change over the medium to long term. But ethnicity is more of a determinant in the long term.
At the present, East Europeans, are in a loose and untested NATO alliance, bound together with transient political and economic factors. But still, they are gathered together sufficiently, to make physical and material moves, on the ground.
There may be some ethnic factors, that may unite the slavic people in Europe, in the longer term. But the dominant political / economic determinant of this alliance is in the USA favour. And as the dominant force in this alliance, it is their interests that will resolve the direction of this alliance.
It is for this reason, that I say, any partition of Ukraine by Russia / Poland, will not end the conflict. But merely offer NATO an easy way to station troops in the west, without a fight. And then use this territory, as a springboard for further attacks against Russian territory.
The reason that for example in Syria, the partition by Russia / USA seems to work, is that the Americans are left without any strong alliances, and Russia has stronger alliances to counteract their force. But in Ukraine, it is the USA, that has alliances, and can also exert more effective pressure against Russian mainland, as opposed to pressure against a military base in Syria, whose loss, unlike Russian territory, is not an existential threat.
For these reasons, waiting and allowing NATO forces to enter west Ukraine, expand Eastward, especially when Ukraine is at war with Russia, and is being supported by them, is not very wise. Allowing them, to then push Eastward later on. No agreement or contract or promise or treaty, can guarantee that they will not use their new positions, for further conquests.
Still west Ukraine, in all likelihood, will not be part of Russian federation. And Russia may not be able or willing to capture these lands. And Ukrainians like others will want to form alliances and arm themselves in the future. But allowing them their own destiny, as and when the war ends, is very different to inviting their backers in, on some false hope or promise of peace, while they are at war with Russia.
Last edited by nomadski on Sun May 01, 2022 12:50 am; edited 2 times in total
Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.
High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 17 Ukrainian military assets during the day. 
In total, 143 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 660 unmanned aerial vehicles, 279 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,678 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 308 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,196 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,503 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.
LMFS
