Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14

Stealthflanker wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:Something that looks like a plain droping flares, over Belgorod.
https://t.me/istorijaoruzija/60127

Yeah looks like flare indeed.

RWA tho think it's air defense engaging something so those bright light could be explosion in short succession.

ucmvulcan wrote:What's the over under on days until Russia is accused of using nuclear, biological, or chemical weaponry?

https://news.yahoo.com/kinzinger-introduces-aumf-defend-ukraine-165409177.html

diabetus wrote:

That's highly unusual for even somewhat modern field artillery if you can't swap the barrels in the field.

There is new technology , and there is old technology . Bunker warfare is from WWI ! So how to use modern tech to defeat Bunker ? Well use Drones , both the flying type and the wheeled type , to deliver a standard grenade into open port - hole or firing hole . Small UCAV or ground vehicle , carried in a back - pack . No need for planes or missiles or bunker- busters or laser guidance or sat-nav . Every Bunker needs a door , at least , and most need port- holes . Most Ukraine Bunkers are open trenches , and vulnerable to air-burst frag rounds by artillery . Is Russia using these ? I wonder ? Does Russia have small robotic ground vehicle ? Or small flying drone ? I know they are available on the market . I am starting to think that , Russia is trying to defeat these troops by letting them surrender , instead of destroying them ?

Javelin is basically an uber expensive version of this same Soviet technology and perhaps not even that effective.

What rubbish. When did I set up Indian members against Chinese and Chinese against Russians? I avoid those third world scumbags like plague.

Another joke is the plan to train pilots for F-16´s. Lets assume that they don´t get shot down in the second they pass the western border, you need a lot of technicians to get those planes airworthy. Are they trained, too? Nobody knows. Then there is no ground equipment, even "ukrainian" bombs won´t fit to them, all of this must come from the west, again crossing the border and traveling for lots of kilometres to their destinations.

The most brutal is the spatznaz operating in Kiev. Thry killed randomly civilians because of this one. Much morevthan what they did in busha yet no one is talking about it.

Random killing of civilians, their own people. Pretty crazy.

What really pisses me off is that that bridges on Dnepr are still standing. Just today, according to Rybar, at Lozovaya another 7 SPG was delivered from the west. Granted ,maybe they didn't come from the west of Dnepr, but isolating everything east of Dnepr will speed up demise of Ukr army in Donbas. Diesel and ammunition will become very scarce. It is a no brainer. I really have a problem understanding logic behind some of the decisions.

So the answer for their weird question for how Russia downed more TB-2 than what Ukraine had before is already clear, yet they keep asking. Just WTF.

but the Saker is a crackpot and somebody that writes to earn money, not a good source.

BTW, acc. to Wikipedia 7 Su-34 shot down so far. I counted 4.

Say whatever you want, but I would rather have a civvie AR-15 with sports trigger built by a well-established, but still small company rather than a rusty museum SKS or Mosin with a spongy trigger, especially knowing that most of the fighting is in an urban environment where sporadic firefights can erupt anywhere. Holosun optics and those massive cans are a nice touch too.

It kinda shows that DNR/LNR were caught with their pants down (no excuse here), I see no reason why Russia couldn't have created mini Israel out of them.

t does make much more sense to send in fresher gear out to the conflict, take the damaged and or worn out ones back for repair. As it will possibly take time and in doing so, they can make sure they are up and ready in proper condition for if they need to send it back.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:

Serberus wrote:
Also something burning in Belgorod again
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/4026

Saw one report of a helo down in the area (unconfirmed)

There were apparently Russian helos patrolling above the city prior to the fire, according to this
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/4028

I geolocated it to the tiny village of Kozychevo.

One woman was filming from Kalinino in the direction of Kozychevo, and it's fairly close as it's audible, and there is nothing except that village in that direction for miles.

There was a near-simultaneous small private house fire in the town Bykovka, but that seems like a shashlyk party gone wrong (it's a holiday after all). Some people mixed up the two though.

Anyway, there is nothing on available (outdated, naturally) satellite photos that suggest anything of importance in Kozychevo. It's a few dachas and a farm.

So question is what is burning so ferociously and loud.

Some impromptu ammo depot that was attacked? Or something big that was shot down?

edit: RU MoD says "an object on the territory of the MoD caught fire", and locals say it sounded like an MLRS barrage hitting.

So, I suppose it's the former then. Old farm repurposed as an ammo depot, and possibly the Ukrainians were tipped off about it. It's a bit less than 20km from the UA border.

edit2: Authorities say one local received light injuries.

Ispan wrote:

limb wrote:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/46062

Colonelcassad is making excuses about why popasnaya is so difficult to take. Like 90% of his excuses are "muh 8 years of trenches" and "it's a strategic town". In the comments he's getting clowned on. Patriotic commenters are calling for "degenerals" who don't use precision airstrikes, care more about human shields than their own soldiersrd and don't use flanking attacks to be put on tribunal.

I don't know who you are or if you a troll, but let's set the things straight.

Cassad doesn't make any excuses, the report is from somebody else.

Rozhin is a civilian like me , but I do have an extensive knowledge of artillery and bombs on the technical side and what they can achieve and what not. The reasons for the difficulty in taking those fortified towns are obvious to me, even more so to a trained military professional.

Cannon shells and aerial bombs only make holes in the ground proportional to their size. The depth of cratering is well known thanks to historical experience. Unfortunately if the defenders dig deep enough or pour enough concrete, it's easy to make bomb-proof bunkers. You don't even need concrete to dig deep dugouts able to withstand the heaviest field artillery. Today we have more 15 cm heavy guns than in both world wars thanks to tracked shelf propelled chassis, but even the heaviest 20 cm cannon (the Pion) are not enough to crack those bunkers.

Also, historical experience shows that 90% plus of the artillery shelling is wasted. It causes craters all over the place, but it's pure chance that a shell hits inside a simple dug trench, and even traverses limit the damage. Trenches are notoriously difficult to "plow" with artillery. To eliminate bunkers and pillboxes you need direct hits. This is why the only thing that works is direct fire with tank guns (12 cm caliber), or even better self propelled artillery (15cm), we don't have assault guns anymore like the ISU-152, so as in Azovstal, when the T-64 or T-72 gun rounds are not enough you have to use a self propelled 15 cm in direct fire.

Bunkers might be destroyed with antitank missiles, but these are in short supply and the captured Javelins and LAWs are not enough for these. Shaped charges can penetrate a lot of concrete but are only useful against small pillboxes , at any rate their warheads are smaller than the 125 mm tank run and expose the firer.

Aerial bombs could destroy those bunkers, but simply jets can't deliver bombs with the accuracy needed, only direct hits suffice. Even the WWII dive bombers were ineffective against bunkers. The Stuka strikes at Sedan in 1940 against French bunkers failed. Most of the pillboxes were silenced by direct fire by tank guns and 88 Flak guns.

Not even the Americans could destroy those bunkers with GPS guided bombs, the accuracy is not enough, is less than a Stuka. They could blow up buildings with JDAM bombs, but hitting a pillbox is not guaranteed.

What other precision strikes are available? Laser guided Krasnopol rounds? it may hit the bunker but the shell is not heavy enough.

Popasnaya, Maryinka and Avdeyevka are so hard to take because the Russian command doesn't throw in infantry groups to assault the fortifications with flamethrowers and hand grenades, like it was done at Verdun, Stalingrad or Iwo Jima. There are no troops for it, nor the will to spend hundreds of casualties, the prize is not worth the cost.

They slowly gnaw through it, but the enemy also fights and keeps throwing new troops to relieve and reinforce the garrison of those places. Sometimes it even counterattacks and recovers loss ground, as in Maryinka. The difficulty is not in actually taking ground, but in holding it.

Infantry can't assault those places without paying hundreds of dead and wounded. Tanks and armor can't blast away the bunkers because in the streets they are easy prey for antitank missiles and RPGs. Coordination of artillery, airstrikes, infantry and armor it's very difficult for a ragtag army as the militias are. No Russian regulars here. Perhaps there's more success in Popasnaya because professionals from "Wagner" group are involved, but from the ground it seems that the town is easier than Avdeyevka.


Those places are not impregnable. It's just that there's no will to accept enough casualties to take them, so instead they are gnawed piece by piece until the enemy has enough and gives up some ground. I don't know what's going on there, but I can figure it out what's likely to be happening. And my educated guess is that, despite the inefficacy of the bombardment, holding on those places absorbs entire battalions and a constant attrition of casualties, as historical experience shows. Troops in the dugouts maybe safe from the bombardment, but sentries and food parties and stretcher bearers are exposed and have to run the gauntlet of shelling, as well as reliefs.

I think the Russian command is acting correctly to save the lives of their soldiers, the places should not be attacked at all, but pressure on them commits enemy formations and reserves and is a mill for the Ukrainians. We got confirmation of my guess, a few days ago the Times military correspondent reports that the Ukries have lost two brigades defending the Peski line.

I don't know if the Ukrops have thousands of men inside Maryinka or Adveyevka, Popasnaya as some have claimed, I don't believe it, but given the size at least a few battallions are there and having them worn out and rotated out resulting in hundreds and even low thousands of casualties after weeks to hold on those fortified places is highly likely to be happening. It's frustrating that they cannot be stormed but the attrition goes into the Russian favour, and the fixing of troops needed elsewhere helps the advances in other places.

This applies in more or less degree to all the fortified places the Ukrops hold. Historically fortifications used to be a way of economizing troops, but trench warfare experience shows that holding defensive lines under sustained shelling is actually a blood letting drain on resources. In the end any fortification is only as strong as the defenders that man its ramparts.

owais.usmani wrote:

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1520831090377859072

Erk wrote:Here is some video of civilians being helped out of the bunker.
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Azov.mp4

I thought it was a bit odd that the soldier on the bus at the 1:04min mark had a blue arm band. Looks like they let a few masked soldiers out too.

mr_hd wrote:It seems two raptors are destroyed by Baryaktars near Snake island.

US announced that war is now going into second phase. Both sides are now aware of each other and is getting more and more difficult to do ambush and cover operations on contact points. Also progress and movements on the front lines is considerably slowed down to almost static. They say now it will be more about long range artillery - and Russian till now have considerable more heavy punch in that area - so it will be now task how to transform Ukrainian army into force that has that gap closed.

There were also news that Ukraine successfully attacked command center near Izyum and eliminated big number of Russian officers - we already know that Ukraine is above average successful in doing that (8 Russian generals were sent in black bags back to Russia from 20 originally that came there at the start).

Now with those huge support packages from EU and US, Ukraine will be more heavily armed and its punch will get more hard and with longer range.
If Russia does not fast achieve its goals in next 2-3 months window to dictate terms will be closed and Ukraine will take initiative on the ground. Right now they are still not strong enough to make bigger counter attacks but in few months that will exactly be the situation. They are training huge army in the western part of the country - right now they did not have weapons for them but that will also change.

Ukrainian Neptunes already changed balance in the Black sea, even if they have only few of them.
In UAV fight Ukraine is holding quite well from the start - and their arsenals' includes locally produced UAVs so they are not fully dependent on Turkey there.

UK and Poland are supposed to start sending middles range anti aircraft missiles (range 25-30km) - sky over Ukraine will get more dangerous for Russian aircraft and helicopters.

All in all prospect for Russia with time passage will get worse and west is aware of it.

Regular wrote:It seems there's another batch of TB-2's out there. Some videos from UA civilians show them flying again. Two boats is not a big loss for Russi. I wonder how long TB-2 can operate above land again.

mr_hd wrote:It seems two raptors are destroyed by Baryaktars near Snake island.

In UAV fight Ukraine is holding quite well from the start - and their arsenals' includes locally produced UAVs so they are not fully dependent on Turkey there.

Ned86 wrote:it seems one more Su-34 shot down
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1519020714937962497

BTW, acc. to Wikipedia 7 Su-34 shot down so far. I counted 4.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#:~:text=Ukrainian%20Air%20Force%20%E2%80%93%206%20March,is%20lost%20over%20Brovarsky%2C%20Kyiv.