Russian special military operation in Ukraine #16

Scott Ritter has lost the plot. He actually believes that Ukraine is raising a whole new army outside of Ukraine in NATO training
camps where its finest soldiers are getting the training to use super advanced NATO "game changer" weapon systems.

If only it was that easy. All that NATzO and its proxy Kiev regime will achieve is raising an UNA/UNSO Banderite goon squad.
NATzO is going to have to send its own armies to fight for its regime.

"lift the sanctions before we lift the blockade": https://tsn.ua/ru/ato/v-rossii-vydvinuli-uslovie-dlya-snyatiya-blokady-s-morskih-portov-ukrainy-2065855.html

All RF controlled ex-Ukr. regions will be in the ruble zone, so their economies willl be thethered to Russia's. Similar to Panama & Ecuador that use US $ & whose economies r 100% dependent on the US economy. Indepedence/neutrality isn't in the cards for any of them!

https://youtu.be/hTStMf_oYNw

andalusia wrote:US planning on sending advanced anti-ship missiles to Ukraine to beat Russian naval blockade.  Should Russia be concerned?


https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-u-aims-arm-ukraine-163046651.html

Not telling Putin or Stavka how to run this war but i would drive Ukraine's borders back 100 miles from the coast.

ucmvulcan wrote:

andalusia wrote:US planning on sending advanced anti-ship missiles to Ukraine to beat Russian naval blockade.  Should Russia be concerned?

Not telling Putin or Stavka how to run this war but i would drive Ukraine's borders back 100 miles from the coast.  

They can be used to endanger the navy of Belorussia tho .  In case of Odessa harpoons will have  impact on Russian Nay's ability to block ship traffic. Somehow Moskva was hit...

The only ships in BSF with decent AAD are 11365 frigates which you dont want to put to high risk environment. Till the whole shoreline is not using Rubles as a currency Russian navy trafic will be impacted.

Sujoy wrote:The conflict has NOT affected Russia's economy adversely, at all. Instead, America's economic nuke strike has ensured a measure of global economic destruction, has precisely nuked global confidence in American commons and left Russia as one of the fastest growing major econ in the world. Masterful...

Russia is pumping a lot of money in different projects now no wonder this works like a spinning wheel for the whole economy.  BTW if Ruble gained +20% value against USD this also boosted economy by 20%

Yet another  S-300 battalion? how many more?  The quickest way is ti kill AAD crew. training the new ones takes mucho more time then just ship new hardware...

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

This footage doesn't hold water
[]
To me this is either Ukro cmentarny or tracked destroyed vehicles from both war parties and painted with Z by psyops

Russia does have BMP1M's or has called P in active service how many I dunno but they do operate them

OK then one of pints makes this a little probable yet still I believe this was a junkyard of wrecks form both sides like those  "reported by US mercenary" earlier on. BTW Why did Ukrops need one week or so to make a vid of something they had access in an instant?

Tsavo Lion wrote:"lift the sanctions before we lift the blockade": https://tsn.ua/ru/ato/v-rossii-vydvinuli-uslovie-dlya-snyatiya-blokady-s-morskih-portov-ukrainy-2065855.html

All RF controlled ex-Ukr. regions will be in the ruble zone, so their economies willl be thethered to Russia's. Similar to Panama & Ecuador that use US $ & whose economies r 100% dependent on the US economy. Indepedence/neutrality isn't in the cards for any of them!

South-East looks lik eto be incorporated as a whol eto Russia. Lvov and surroundings could be left as a protectorate i.e. Panama...

kvs wrote:Scott Ritter has lost the plot.   He actually believes that Ukraine is raising a whole new army outside of Ukraine in NATO training
camps where its finest soldiers are getting the training to use super advanced NATO "game changer" weapon systems.
...

Well, that is what's happening right now, the question is how much of an impact will it really have?

I don't think NATO has the gear to cause any significant change atm.
However, they could be ramping up production and training whilst the current AFU stalls for time.

Also, Russia has held back most of it's forces.

Erk wrote:

kvs wrote:Scott Ritter has lost the plot.   He actually believes that Ukraine is raising a whole new army outside of Ukraine in NATO training
camps where its finest soldiers are getting the training to use super advanced NATO "game changer" weapon systems.
...

Well, that is what's happening right now, the question is how much of an impact will it really have?

I don't think NATO has the gear to cause any significant change atm.
However, they could be ramping up production and training whilst the current AFU stalls for time.

Also, Russia has held back most of it's forces.

If that's true, won't they be too late for them to join the fray? Russia will be in Lviv by the time they will master game-changing weapon systems? And even then, who will have logistics ready for them in Ukraine?

I personally think that Ukraine is throwing their best men to the front and we will see collapses as soon as they will be spent.

Big_Gazza wrote:

Serberus wrote:

Erk wrote:There is quite a lot of Ukrainian surrender going on in Azovstal, the number is now up to 1,730 since Monday.

Basurin estimated 2000 plus Azovites and Ukrops were trapped in Azovstal weeks ago when the the rest of the city was liberated , most on here were sceptical about the number but looks like he was pretty much spot on.

Hmm..  I think most of us thought that the 2000+ estimate was a fairly accurate assessment?  I would have been greatly surprised if there were significantly more.

I seem to remember a few estimated several hundred at most, either way it’s not important, their fighting days are over… the only thing that matters.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:dear god Vann is even dumber than I thought....Rebels never shot down a MIG-29 Russians lose those cause of an old carrier and their own incompetence, half of the others claims you also made are false.

I am done with you, this is just too pathetic to watch.

rebels shot down syrians domestic mig-29.. that they had a decade, when. they were used for air ground support , from time to time in emergency situations ,for their lost of bombs it can carry.
thanks for proving how ignorant you are.

so i stand by what i said..  manpads can be dangerous for any combat jets and not just helicopters or low flying drones as you claimed , it all depends of situations. and they have been used in syria against russian and syrian airforce , with more success against the later. not just su-25 shotdown by manpads but also mig-29 ,su-24 and mig-21. and they have denied the use of su-34 from doing close air support , As a matter of fact ,manpads is a major deterrence to combat jets from flying low and this is why Russian airforce have been unable to take full advantage of their far superior airforce , than the ukraine one , in ukraine in targeting moving targets   with their combat jets  and not very effective versus advanced trenches build by ukrainians ,that require ultra precision bombing. so in order to get higher precision russian airforce needs to fly lower than 5k altitude , to improve better the precision of their bombs. which makes combat jets highly vulnerable to manpads too.

here is a picture of syrian mig-29.  



they lost some of them do to manpads of isis..  when doing close air support targeting isis, and russia nearly lose an su-34 and another su-24 doing the same. Using combat jets ,to launch small strike drones , kamikazi drones , or artillery guide drones  , in many situations can be much more productive and efficient that sending a combat jet into a dangerous zone and stay flying over there for a long time. Much better if russia outsource that job to attack drones or artillery guide drones ,
is called combined arms operations , this is what russia needs to work a lot more. Because sending planes alone , or tanks alone or soldiers alone or trying to win wars with artillery duels alone is
highly inefficient . and this is what allowed ukrainians to last so much , thanks to russia weakness
in ultra precision attacks and in combined arms operations with drone support.

kvs wrote:Scott Ritter has lost the plot.   He actually believes that Ukraine is raising a whole new army outside of Ukraine in NATO training
camps where its finest soldiers are getting the training to use super advanced NATO "game changer" weapon systems.

If only it was that easy.  All that NATzO and its proxy Kiev regime will achieve is raising an UNA/UNSO Banderite goon squad.
NATzO is going to have to send its own armies to fight for its regime.

He is being maybe a bit naive about the intentions of US, or maybe he cannot believe the sheer criminality of his country, but he has not been fully understood I think. He has just said that Russia will be forced to make a bigger effort, change the rules of engagement and essentially take more time to destroy the country more than it would be "necessary".

On the one hand, I do not fully agree that the current Western plans are going to force Russia to radically increase their current effort, but it is as obvious as it was expected that the West has done what they always do, double down and throw more money at the problem, expecting their "might" will allow them to break Russia's back. Breaking news for them, Russian MIC does not operate as a racket and they can produce more and better for a cost that it is an order of magnitude smaller than the Western one. So, the same as the bear indeed fell militarily in the Ukrainian trap and is in the process of breaking it and eating the hunter, the Russian MIC is in the process of knowingly bait and compete in the arms race with the West, but, instead of ruining the country as the US expects, and based in the contained inflation and extraordinary trade surplus, it may actually kickstart the real modernization of Russian army and (finally) pump real money into the hi-tech, productive sectors of Russian economy, overruling the orthodox financial areas of the government. Meanwhile the West will lose big money while their economies are being subjected to massive stress. Guess who is going to hit the wall the sooner...

On the other, it is hardly news that US wanted Ukraine destroyed from the start and planed to squeeze every drop of blood from their people, in the end killing Russians using almost Russians is a 100% strategic victory for them. So self evidently they re not surprising the Russians in the slightest. I get the sense that, even when perfect interdiction of every piece of weapons that move inside of Ukraine is not possible, I don't think Russians are really going to the limit of their possibilities in that regard. And I can see several reasons for allowing the Ukrainians and the West to keep fighting a long attrition war:
- Obviously, killing less Russian soldiers and less Ukrainian people, specially in Russian ethnic areas, than with a very intense campaign that tries to recover territory as a first priority
- Putting their military to the test and making sure every unit gets a taste of real war against progressively more and more of the Western arsenal
- Bleeding the West dry in a relatively controlled environment (at their own doorstep to be clear) where they can easily escalate if needed
- Keeping a controlled and sustainable resource expense that can be maintained for years, ensuring a stable source of revenue to their MIC and industrial base
- Preventing the escalation of the conflict and the contagion to other regions, with the effects it would entail for Russia and the world economy
- Phasing in new weapons and operational concepts that can be needed to fight the West in a high tech war in the not so distant future
- Giving time for the effects of the sanctions to reach to their owners and crash their economies, as well as fracture the bonds between the masters and their vassals

But, even when all that is a serious amount of reasons why Russia would like to keep it slow, sustain the war for months and years and not fully destroy Ukraine in a Blitzkrieg, what the West does not realize or does not care is that they are themselves solving the biggest political problem of Russia of the last centuries by making damn sure there will be no Ukraine left after this war, only a massively expanded Russia that will finally manage to reintegrate its ancestral lands again. Until now the West could use positive motivation, pump their allies' economies and tempt Russians to be like them, now their chihuahuas are being sacrificed in the most cynical and crude way and the leash controlling them (see latest Vovan & Lexus prank with George W. Bush for a prime example) is in the open for all to see. So soon they will have no vassals to fight Russia and they will need to take care themselves or simply be defeated. It is truly a complete change of scenario and a clear sign they are reaching the bottom of the barrel and losing their hegemony at full speed

GunshipDemocracy wrote:South-East looks like to be incorporated as a whole to Russia. Lvov and surroundings could be left as a protectorate i.e. Panama...

no, Poland will take Lvov & W. Ukraine, Hungary & Romania may take their former lands too.
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27388/4582199/

https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2022/05/03/obnarodovan-prikaz-komanduyushchego-vs-polshi-o-predstoyashchem-vtorzhenii-vo-lvov-i-volyn

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/05/04/ukraine-war-feeds-dreams-of-hungarian-far-right-reclaiming-lost-land/

kvs wrote:Scott Ritter has lost the plot.   He actually believes that Ukraine is raising a whole new army outside of Ukraine in NATO training
camps where its finest soldiers are getting the training to use super advanced NATO "game changer" weapon systems.

If only it was that easy.  All that NATzO and its proxy Kiev regime will achieve is raising an UNA/UNSO Banderite goon squad.
NATzO is going to have to send its own armies to fight for its regime.

i think it is you the one losing the plot.

If you think that NATO will surrender so easily in ukraine , specially with the very unimpressive
performance of Russian in ukraine , that had their own cities and warships humiliated by ukraine
and forzed to retreat from kiev and kharkiv , only people detached from reality of how the west
operates , will think that after 3 months nato will just say... alright you won russia.

ukraine is much more important for nato than syria  and in syria it took russia 4 years to clear it to the point of forcing nato to stop fighting there. so this war in ukraine will last at least 5 years but with the snail  pace of russia about 10.

So Nato will not surrender that easily ,if russia not hurry up , at least capturing half of ukraine ,
then it will be much much worse ,when nato start arming ukraine with nato combat planes ,and nato underwater drones and cruise missiles. And super long range artillery but also chemical and biological weapons .

ukraine needs to be see as the last opportunity nato will have to destroy and collapse russia ,
and they will not give up so easily ,they will only ramp the supply of weapons and more lethal ones,
and eventually ukraine fighters will end beign replaced by real nato private contractors.. and with superior weapons ,missiles and drones ,you will see.

Even ukraine is hinting that russia is going to lose in summer.. but did not explained what was going to happen in summer and likely is nato trainning at least 100,000 new forces with nato equipment and nato preparing ukraine into a more direct confrontation with russia , with poland and romania possibly invading and using thousands of civilians as human shields.. exactly what they did in syria.
so if they bomb their positions thousands of civilians will be killed.

by the way ...
the rybar report confirmed every single thing i have been saying , of russia massive weakness in
combine arms operation and strike drones.. ukraine have far more heavy strike drones than russia.
and they do a lot of damage to russian convoys , notice the bridge battles defeats to russia, and also russian warships losses potentially with the assistant of drones.

Summary of Rybar...
Russian aviation and the problems faced

https://t.me/cmiye

A little about aviation.

I'm on a train with an Air Force colonel.
I have brief answers to your questions.

- The losses in the air in the first days were really a lot, more than expected.

There are several factors involved.

First, such a large number of enemy air defense systems has never been seen before in conflicts. The Ukros had all kinds of anti-aircraft toys, from our S-300s and Buks to a lot of Stingers.

- Secondly, the classical methods of warfare have proven their complete ineffectiveness. That is, in theory, you must first make fly, for example, drones and decoys so that the enemy anti-aircraft reveals its position by firing at the false targets. Then we proceed to the suppression of defenses and aviation can operate. Here the Ukrainians deceived us at first, advancing their air defense systems a little more than expected, (so their range was greater) which we did not take into account. However, now we have already managed to do this, using missiles with a much longer range of n to destroy enemy anti-aircraft defense from a safe distance. But our "birds" were hit many times.

- Thirdly, there is a catastrophic shortage of attack unmanned aerial vehicles. I stress catastrophic! Yes, we have a couple of successful mods like "Pacer" and "Outpost-RU". And according to certain characteristics, "Pacer" is even better than Bayraktar. But the Baiyraktars have been in te production for a long time and there are a lot of them, and our production is counted by the dozens at best. They are not relevant. Of course, there is the Orlan-10 with small aerial bombs, but against the background of Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles, this is a simple toy. And another point: import substitution. A year ago, our drones were tested on German engines. It is not yet clear whether domestic analogues have appeared.»

i was right all the time..  good to know.
Russia inadequate drone use ,and poorly equipped military with drones , lablamed in a big part for russia defeats and loses.. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to compare ukraine drones videos and russian released drones videos and the ukraine ones are far superior in efficiency , destruction and accuracy , even the image quality is superior of ukraine drones , than russian ones..   and this is another topic that is not being
discussed.

Even when reality is more important , than videos , information warfare , can be very effective tool ,
to raise the morality or decrease the morality of forces fighting in a conflict.. and it is important that
russia military fully document in videos , and in high quality , full videos from start to end ,the destruction of ukraine military , to uplift the morale of russian soldiers and pressure ukraine army
to give away their weapons to save their lives.  but doing what russia is doing ,that almost show nothing of their combat operations success , this is poor media handling .. russia need to show the
consequences for fighting russia , so demoralze ukrainians and pressure them to surrender.

and scott ritter is a proffesional , veteral of US military and NATO ,who had job with united nations.
so i rather listen the opinion of him, than of anyone that provide constant excuses to putin , criminal behavior ,when offering the west to combine russian and american vaccines.

putin is responsible in part , for all this zombiefied world we live , for his cooperation with the west
in all their false flags operations . complete cooperation with 9/11 wtc inside job attacks , he even gave a decoration monument to bush.  for 9/11 victims and supported the bin landen story.
and now today he is totally timid , in exposing the west with this criminal vaccines ,they using to exterminate the global population.   He could have done a lot of damage to the western narrative during the pandemic , if he called pfizer and moderna and all western vaccines by their name ,as depopulation bioweapons and made a meeting with all world independent scientist and doctors a conference with his scientist and show it on russian media ,to warn orld population to not use british and american vaccines , that is long term poison to murder half of world population .
so keep sponsoring criminals and incompetent presidents , Russia Federation is facing the evil today , that their own president in moscow refused to expose and instead  cooperated with them in the past, and still continue cooperating ,with his silence of today depopulation of the world.

To stop evil , the truth needs to be told , and not hidden , what putin have been doing. He is now victim of the same evil he sponsored for 22 years , by his silence and cooperating with western fake narratives.

The 80km range refers to the new PGM that will eventually replace the Krasnopol. In all likelihood the Msta-SM2 or even the earlier versions may be able to use it?

The only extended range round I have read about is the 180km range extended range guided round which looks like a rather fat APFSDS round containing HE.

Would be suitable for point targets with proper guidance but for counter battery fire you want to take out the gun and the troops around it and hopefully the truck that got it there too.

Mna[ads also can only shoot down an su-25 if the SU=25 attempts to go in very low if it stays high up which it can and drop bombs manpads cannot touch it
LIKE1

When MANPADS are a known threat most fast jets avoid flying below about 7km altitude making them quite safe from MANPADS... some MANPADS might reach 5km but the IR signature of a drone is smaller than an aircraft so it might reach it but it wont get a lock in the first place so you can't launch the missile in the first place.

Igla would struggle against a small drone because it has an impact fuse, Igla-S and Verba would be fine against even tiny drones and even ATGMs.

Please Garry, for the nth time, he is NOT allowing Russian military ships (home ported in the Black Sea or not) nor anyone else's military ships through, only his own. He is being totally fair, the only way to do it.

The rules state that ships that are home ported in the Black Sea can return to port through the straight, which includes Russian ships.

HATO ships from the US and UK and France are therefore not allowed in because while they are not technically combatants, they don't have home ports in the Black Sea.

Perhaps with Ukr. ports blocked & resulting shortage of grain on the market, the West will be pressured to tell Kiev to yeild to RF demands in order to avoid hunger induced crises elsewhere.

It is the Ukraine that is blocking the ports.

Russia does have BMP1M's or has called P in active service how many I dunno but they do operate them

Easy to spot them though because they have the same turret as the BTR-82A carries with the 30mm cannon.

south Ossetia and Abkhazia into Russia it makes sense while it's currently got the sanctions on it, it's not as if the west can inflict anything else on Russia so might as well do the whole lot while the west has Russophobia in full swing.

I think SO wants to join so why bother refusing to avoid upsetting the west and Georgia?

They are free to decide on their own... the west has made the option of going back with Tiblisi or Kiev respectively not a good option for them considering their history of trying to murder them...

US planning on sending advanced anti-ship missiles to Ukraine to beat Russian naval blockade. Should Russia be concerned?

When they capture some and hand them over to Iran after inspecting them for themselves should the taffic going through the Persian gulf be worried?

no, Poland will take Lvov & W. Ukraine, Hungary & Romania may take their former lands too.

If they enter the war on Kievs side they become legitimate targets for Russia and Article 5 will not protect them because they are not defending themselves.

andalusia wrote:US planning on sending advanced anti-ship missiles to Ukraine to beat Russian naval blockade.  Should Russia be concerned?


https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-u-aims-arm-ukraine-163046651.html

Of course a legit concern. Particularly with US assets overflying black sea so far, which give an eye to Ukrainians. One type US can send is NSM's and this thing is neat as it use Infra red seeker. It wont spawn in ESM's and sufficiently low RCS and low flying, But this might come at constraint of intensive needs of Mid-course update. The best way is of course to shoot down the US Drones or start jamming the P-8's or E-3's but it seems not to be an option.

One way is more sorties of CAP mainly for missile defense, A-50 with Su-30's flying along the coast to snipe the NSM's in flight, locate their launchers and maybe zap it pronto with KH-59's or Oniks. It will be intensive and maybe expensive but that's worth it TBH. It also good for showbiz, showing the Russians own the Black Sea skies. Maybe buzzing US drones too like in Syria.

PapaDragon wrote:

Hole wrote:

Is that Bear MRAP?

Holy shit, looks like USA aren't the only ones dumping old discontinued crap in Ukraine  

Ukros have been dumping their own gear, before fleeing. Apart from selling their gear in the western black market.

taken from another forum..
but interesting.  

it shows what is going on with the west barking at Russia.




Probably one of the best decisions Putin have taken is to demand payments in ruble ,
and i don't think this is going to ever change , it will be forever . other nations will see
how positive this was for russian economy , and might follow .

my only hopes however is that russian government understand the catastrophic mistake
they did in not modernizing russia economy , not developing their civilian high tech industry ,
they did so little , and now they are permanently blocked from most important electronics
for nation development.. and hopefully putin will now take seriously russia high tech industry
and perhaps make an alliance with india ,iran and china and maybe with brazil and mexico help
too ,to develop true alternatives to collective western system and its puppet colonies and
develop superior alternatives , but good leaders with leaders with vision are necessary first.