Ispan wrote:Special detailed report on today's fighting, breakout from Popasnaya
very detailed multiple sources, lots of maps and some reports on lessons from the fighting so far
https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/05/19/parte-de-guerra-19-05-2022/
You could just suscribe to the relevant telegram channels, but I believe it's good to have everything posted in a single place in this format of daily reports and much easier to read.
NO MAPS!!!
19 May General situation map in the Donbass salient
Situation around 20:30 hours
We analyzed the reports of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Presumably the situation is as follows:
Belogorovka is held by the Ukrainians, but all the approaches and the city are under fire. According to local authorities, evacuation is not possible.
Privolye — there was a rumor that the enemy left because the village is about to be encircled. They say that river crossings have been established.
Severodonetsk - strong battles on the outskirts.
Shchedrishchevo, Voronovo taken by the Russians.
Sirotino — there was a Russian advance, then repulsed, then again an advance and again repulsed.
Borovskoe-enemy. There is no fighting, gunfire is heard and isolated arrivals.
Gorskoe, Zolotoe-enemy, a strong fortified area and apparently a boiler is planned there.
Toshkovka, Kamyshevakha - according to unconfirmed reports taken by the Russian militaryp
Vrubovka is under constant fire from both sides.
The villages around Popasnoy: Alexandropolye and Novozvanovka-Russian army
Pilipchatino, Troitskoe — the Russian army is storming them
Soledar, Artemovsk and its environs - very powerful explosions throughout the day.
Reporting by Gleb Bazov 19 May
Kharkov Sector, Northern Front:
1-There is at least some indication that Russian troops have begun to counterattack the Ukrainian advance towards the state border.
2-What is clear, however, is that the Russian artillery is treating this section of the front very similarly to the dividing line at the Kherson-Nikolayev theater, providing barrier fire, which has allowed the Allied forces to stabilize the front line. The Ukrainian units no longer seem to have enough momentum or personnel to advance much further from where they are now.
3-As the exhaustion of the Ukrainian counteroffensive becomes apparent, I hope that Russia will make the pullback more obvious.
4-Near Kazachya Lopan, clashes have focused on the area between Slatino and Dementyevka, halfway between the Dergachi-Russkaya Lozovaya line and the border.
5-There is no clarity regarding Ukrainian attempts to cross the Seversky Donets River in the area of Stary Saltov. However, the Ukrainian advance towards Volchansk has stopped.
6-South of Balakleya, Ukrainian attempts to break through the Seversky Donets using saboteur reconnaissance groups ("SRG") remain unsuccessful.
A 1,000-man bag of the 1st Combined Brigade of the National Guard reinforced by units of the Ukrainian Army continues to exist on the Oskol reservoir.
11:50 a.m.
reports that Allied troops have re-liberated the city of Rubezhnoye, on the Seversky Donets River, northeast of Kharkov and southwest of Volchansk.
Avdeyevka
Judging by the interview given by Abkhaz Commander of the Pyatnashka Battalion of the DNR People's Militia, to Rudenko, Avdeyevka has become the new Azovstal to replace the old and broken one.
The Ukrainian garrison on Avdeyevka has been blocked in the city, unable to get out or even conduct artillery strikes. As soon as they try to take firing positions, the fire of the counter-battery forces them to retreat.
Abkhaz also stressed the wisdom of the Allied military command, which resists emotions and the urge to achieve flashy results with the blood of Allied soldiers. Instead of wasting personnel for victories for the nadan, operations are carefully and carefully planned to preserve the lives of soldiers.
[GB: This describes Russian tactics in Donbass, where artillery, missile strikes and airstrikes are used to comprehensively defeat the Ukrainian resistance before any advance by armored groups or infantry is attempted.]
While everyone was talking and waiting for the Allied forces to close the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk cauldron through Vrubovka, the Russian units took a more direct route by pursuing an offensive along the railway lines leading to Druzhba, then Tripolye, then Vladimirovka, then Novaya Kamenka.
We reported on this line of the offensive from the very beginning, after the fall of Popasnaya and the beginning of the multi-vector fan advance centered on Popasnaya, but we did not expect that this particular direction would produce results faster than others. I guess the Ukrainians don't either.
P. The remaining route passes through Seversk, but it is much less user-friendly than the main line from Lisichansk to Soledar.
Map of the Popasnaya sector and today's developments
Summary of Rybar
Allied offensive near Popasnaya: situation at 21.00 on May 19, 2022
10 days after the fall of one of the most powerful fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas, the allied forces on Popasnaya broke through the enemy's defenses in several directions at once. The Ukrainian front began to crumble.
The network has already aptly dubbed the incident "the flower of Popasna that opened": and if you look at the map, this is the case. If near Zaporozhye, Liman the advances on the front have stopped, then in the west of the Luhansk People's Republic, enemy lines are breaking one after another.
After clearing Popasna, the assault groups of the PMC Wagner continued their offensive in the direction of Soledar to the west. By defeating the units of the Ukrainian army and territorial detachments in Trypolye, the "musicians" opened the way to Vladimirovka for the allies at the front.
Russian paratroopers managed to surround Trypoly and take Vladimirovka on the morning of May 19. At night Tripolye fell - the advanced groups of the "orchestra" entered there.
The Bakhmut (Artemovsk) – Lisichansk highway is battered by Allied fire. Soledar is three kilometers away.
In order to establish full control over the main supply route of the Ukrainian group in the Lisichansk — Severodonetsk — Rubezhnoye agglomeration, the Allied forces will have to take fortified positions on the dominant heights north of Vladimirovka and Tripolye.
After that, the only way to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be the Lisichansk —Seversk highway, crossed from the eastern bank of the Seversky Donets.
Another direction of attack of the "Wagner PMCs" - south, towards Troitsky. If in 2015 this fortified area resisted during the battles for Debaltseve, todaymay 19, 2022, the village fell.
To the north of Popasnoya Russian units attack. Fierce fighting in the south of the city Kamyshevakha. After encircling the enemy's fortified area from the west, the Russian units took a small village Viktorovka, occupiedthe Kamyshevakha railway station and continued their offensive to the north. Kamyshevakha was taken in a semi-encirclement, and the Russian Armed Forces were able to move north and enter the territory of Vrubovka, which is currently being cleared.
At the end of May 19, the road to Soledar is cut by the Russian Armed Forces from Popasnaya, the road to Lisichansk - by the People's Militia of the PRL on Toshkovka. The "Lugansk" militia attacks the enemy positions in Gorskpye and Zolotoye from the side of Toshkovki and Orekhovo, and the Russian troops are attacking them are shooting down the Ukrainian positions in Kamyshevakha.
The enemy can still break out of the encirclement along the country roads from Gorsky and move through the fields in the direction of Lisichansk. Now, in the crucible of the battle, the last available reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being deployed: territorial defense units of western Ukraine, units transferred from Izyum and the remnants of the 24th Mechanized Brigade that was previously withdrawn from Popasna.
In the event of a complete closure of the "Popasnaya caldera", from five to eight thousand Ukrainian servicemen will be surrounded.
General summary - Boris Rozhin 22.45 hours
1. Mariupol.
The surrender of the remnants of the Mariupol group in Azovstal continues. By the evening of May 19, more than 1,800 enemy soldiers and officers had surrendered. This is the largest loss of prisoners for the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2014. The process continues. A court for war criminals is already being prepared.
2. Zaporozhy.
On the line Kamenskoye-Orekhov-Gulyai-Pole-Velikaya Novoselovka without significant changes. Position struggles.
Note: Local residents blame looting on the troops of Ukraine, regular, territorial and National Guard, they all steal and blame each other.
3. Ugledar.
Fighting in the area of Novomikhailovka and Ugledar. There is no significant progress in this direction.
4. Maryinka.
Positional battles in the village continue. There is no significant progress in the village.
5. Avdeyevka.
Fighting in the area of Novoselki-2 and Novobakhmutovka, as well as on the outskirts of New York. The enemy is intensively shelling Yasinovataya.
6. Lugansk,
The offensive in the Popasnaya area is developing successfully. The troops took Troitske north of Svitlodarsk. West of Popasnaya, they are fighting for Pilipchatino.
PMC "Wagner" took Tripolye, and the paratroopers-Vladimirovka, arriving almost near Soledar. The villages of Druzhba and part of Novaya Kamenka were also taken. The Soledar-Lisichansk highway is already under fire from this direction.
The threat of an operational encirclement of the entire Severodonetsk grouping is growing. Severodonetsk itself is being stormed from three sides. The capture of the village of Shchedrishchevo by the 4th Cossack regiment on the outskirts of Severodonetsk has been confirmed.
7. Izyum
Fighting in the Krasny Liman area, where up to 1200-1500 enemy soldiers are under threat of encirclement. There is also heavy fighting in the forest area (the "Sherwood Forest") near Dolgenky. The enemy is stubbornly resisting in the area of Privolye and Svetlogorsk.
8. Kharkiv.
The Russian Armed Forces drove the enemy back from the border near the village of Ternovoe and recaptured it again. There are reports of fighting around the village of Rubezhnoye, southwest of Volchansk. Attacks on positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions have also intensified in response to attacks on border settlements in the Belgorod and Kursk regions.
9. Nikolaev.
There are no significant changes in the Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol directions.
10. Odessa.
No significant changes. The enemy continues to talk about the threat of landings and conducts reconnaissance in the direction of Zmeiny Island.
Restoration work is underway on the damaged railway bridge in Zatoka, which is of strategic importance.
Summary and analysis - Gleb Bazov
1 – Just ten days after the fall of Popasnaya, the most important bastion and fortress of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass, the allied forces have breached the defenses of ukrainians in multiple directions along four separate addresses ranging from Popasnaya to the north, northwest, west, and south. The Ukrainian front is crumbling.
2-After the clearing of Popasnaya, PMC Wagner units continued the offensive in the north-western direction, along the railway lines towards the Druzhba settlement and towards Soledar. The advance of the Wagner units immobilized and blocked the Ukrainian Army and territorial defense troops in Tripoli and opened the way for the elite Russian VDV units (paratroopers) to progress to Vladimirovka.
3-Where it took several days to move beyond Druzhba, the settlements of Tripolye and Vladimirovka fell in quick succession on May 19, 2022. The first success came from the VDV units bypassing Tripolye and securing Vladimirovka on the morning of May 19. Wagner's troops took control of Tripoli at dusk the same day. Finally, it is reported that the advancing units of the Allied offensive took Novaya Kamenka, essentially placing them on the outskirts of Soledar.
4-A key section of the Soledar-Lisichansk lifeline supplying the Ukrainian troops in the north-eastern corner of the Donbass cauldron being formed is now under the control of shelling fire of the Allied troops. The Ukrainian military grouping in the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk urban agglomeration is in operational encirclement. To ensure the rapid success of the offensive, the Allied troops have to take control of a reinforced position on the neighboring strategic heights of Vladimirovka and Tripolye to the north. Having achieved this goal, the only remaining supply line to the trapped Ukrainian troops will run along the Lisichansk-Seversk route, a route that is already under the control of artillery fire of Russian forces from the northern bank of the Seversky Donets River running through the area.
5-The second direction of the offensive being carried out by Wagner units is to the south, in the direction of Troitskoye, and, from there, to the Svetlodarsk arch and the city of Svetlodarsk. At the end of May 19, 2022, Troitskoye fell to the advancing Allied forces. The Donbass armies failed to achieve this goal in the Battle for Debaltsevo in 2015, which left the Ukrainian army in control of the key defensive arch of Svetlodarsk wedged between the DNR's Gorlovka stronghold and the LNR administrative border with its sister Republic. Like the Ukrainian salient at Debaltsevo (eliminated as a result of the victory of the Donbass armies in the Battle of Debaltsevo), the Ukrainian presence in Svetlodarsk arc, in the following years, created a clear and present danger that Ukrainian forces would split the lines of communication between the Republics in a future offensive.
6-The offensive north of Popasnaya, in the direction of Kamyshevakha and Vrubovka, is an area of responsibility that was assigned to regular Russian units. The intention here is to secure Vrubovka in order to secure an additional control zone over the Ukrainian supply line Lisichansk-Soledar, as well as to close the lid of the mini-cauldron containing the Ukrainian fortress in the Zolotoye-Gorskoye area. The first reports that Vrubovka had been taken were premature. However, by the end of May 19, 2022, Kamyshevakha had been taken in a semicircle by Russian units, with heavy fighting ongoing in its southern part. The Allied units bypassing Kamyshevakha from the west took control of the small village of Viktorovka and the Kamyshevakha railway station, and then headed to Vrubovka. Cleaning operations on Vrubovka are already underway.
7-To the east and northeast of the Zolotoye-Gorskoye stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, units of the LNR People's Militia advanced along two lines of the offensive, trying to take control of Orekhovo and Toshkovka. While it was reported that Orekhovo was taken a few days ago, the battle for Toshkovka is still ongoing, despite the first reports of the fall of Ukrainian defenses in the settlement. Success in this sector will cut the withdrawal hotlines to Lisichansk for the Ukrainian grouping in the Zolotoye-Gorskoye area. Ukrainian units could still get out of the mini-cauldron that was being formed using rural and ring roads and then move through the fields to Lisichansk, but any such withdrawal would simply lead them into another trap.
8-The Allied forces are exhausting the last remaining reserves available to the Ukrainian army in the area: the territorial defense reinforcements brought from western Ukraine and the remnants of the Ukrainian 24 Brigade, which was crushed and retreated from Popasnaya with significant losses. By the end of May 19, 2022, the Allied forces had established artillery fire control over the Soledar-Lisichansk supply line and are close to cutting off communications between Zolotoye-Gorskoye and Lisichansk. The only direction of the offensive where success has been limited is the westward attack on Pilipchatino—along the main route from Popasnaya to Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), reports of early success of which were premature.
9-In total, between 5,000 and 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers may be trapped in the Zolotoye-Gorskoye mini-cauldron once it is closed. Estimates of the total Ukrainian military presence in the Severodonetsk-Popasnaya corner of the Donbass operational cauldron range from 15,000 to 20,000, according to various reports and estimates.
Lessons from the campaign - various reports:
Ukrainian fortifications
video
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/908
Regarding the Ukrainian fortifications prepared in the last 8 years in anticipation of the conflict with Russia: while it is not exactly the Maginot line, the scope of the massive fortifications in the Kharkov region explains the difficulties faced in dealing with Avdeevka and Maryinka, where the Ukrainian preparations were even more extensive.
The multi-kilometer defensive system was designed for the deployment of a full infantry battalion. Caponiers were also prepared for heavy military equipment, where a tank or lightly armored vehicles could be placed. It was possible to keep the defense here for several months in a row. The fortifications seem to have been built by UAF contractors, but for unknown reasons they were not commissioned.
"These fortifications were prepared very well and quite a long time ago, because the boards have already begun to rot and everything has started to overgrow. The length is about 10 km of all passages, roofs, trenches. There are many concrete shelters. Ready for year-round service.”
Fighting in Mariupol - urban combat without artillery and aviation
Aviation was not used much (if at all) over the residential districts, where the Ukrainian troops were stationed and organized their fortified areas, and the same with artillery. The Battle of Mariupol was an operation of clearing mobile groups of urban fighting from building to building.
Groups of individual tanks or in pairs, many small groups of infantry methodically moving around the city. This is confirmed by the damage to the buildings—almost all the damage is located on the upper and middle floors, where the Ukrainians set up firing positions, and the Allied troops fired from the ground at them.
Meanwhile, the "Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol" kept civilians on the lower floors and in the basements, as human shields. The fact that this operation was successful, and in such a short time, is impressive.
Russian aviation and the problems faced
https://t.me/cmiye
A little about aviation.
I'm on a train with an Air Force colonel.
I have brief answers to your questions.
- The losses in the air in the first days were really a lot, more than expected.
There are several factors involved.
First, such a large number of enemy air defense systems has never been seen before in conflicts. The Ukros had all kinds of anti-aircraft toys, from our S-300s and Buks to a lot of Stingers.
- Secondly, the classical methods of warfare have proven their complete ineffectiveness. That is, in theory, you must first make fly, for example, drones and decoys so that the enemy anti-aircraft reveals its position by firing at the false targets. Then we proceed to the suppression of defenses and aviation can operate. Here the Ukrainians deceived us at first, advancing their air defense systems a little more than expected, (so their range was greater) which we did not take into account. However, now we have already managed to do this, using missiles with a much longer range of n to destroy enemy anti-aircraft defense from a safe distance. But our "birds" were hit many times.
- Thirdly, there is a catastrophic shortage of attack unmanned aerial vehicles. I stress catastrophic! Yes, we have a couple of successful mods like "Pacer" and "Outpost-RU". And according to certain characteristics, "Pacer" is even better than Bayraktar. But the Baiyraktars have been in te production for a long time and there are a lot of them, and our production is counted by the dozens at best. They are not relevant. Of course, there is the Orlan-10 with small aerial bombs, but against the background of Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles, this is a simple toy. And another point: import substitution. A year ago, our drones were tested on German engines. It is not yet clear whether domestic analogues have appeared.»
I could not help but ask about the "Kiev Ghost" and, in general, about who had the superiority in the air.
— So keep in mind: Ukrainian pilots did not win a single air combat. Not a uni. The most they can do is when a fighter manages to run away and break the combat. Bob's your uncle. Escape. Point. All the downed Russian aircraft were shot down exclusively by the Ukrainian air defense forces. Also in the aerial victories of Ucrnaia, you can score two helicopters that managed to fly from Mariupol. Two out of nine, but that's it.
In short: we have the maximum air superiority, we have worked on the mistakes, the enemy will be defeated, and the victory will be ours.
Izyum Front
As for the situation on the Izyum front, the most tense point of the war at the moment. The units of the heroic (and I mean it seriously) 20th Army have taken the village of Dolgenkoe and are regrouping, preparing for new offensive actions.
The assault on the village was difficult and bloody. The forests in the immediate vicinity of this settlement were well fortified, and our art forces and special forces had to work very hard, driving the Ukrainians out of the wooded area. Now in the "Sherwood Forest" lie many corpses of soldiers of the Ukrainian army, who most likely, like their unfortunate predecessors, will be buried in a mass grave, Ukraine does not collect the corpses of its soldiers, no matter how much we offer them.
The left neighbors continue to move along the left bank of the Seversky Donets River, the right neighbors have approached the village of Kurulka, which will soon meet the same fate as Dolgenky. After the capture of Kurulka, the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk group of the enemy will be cut off from the fuel and ammunition supply routes. Delivery will be possible only on forest and rural roads, using individual vehicles.
Note: Kurulka and other villages on the front line have had to change hands several times between attacks and counterattacks, because a few weeks ago it was reported that Russian vanguard elements were already in Kurulka. It is a detail that explains why the front has been standing in this sector for so long.
The Russian troops are moving slowly but surely. They protect their personnel and try to destroy the enemy with artillery, missiles and aircraft. In general, our offensive in this direction is similar to the movement of a steamroller.
Armored personnel carriers advance only after the sappers conduct reconnaissance of the area, as the enemy resorts to anti-tank and anti-personnel mines and generously scattered them on the paths of a possible offensive by Russian troops. The Russian artillery has been conducting a counter-battery fight with great success for several days, forcing the Ukrainian artillery to take precautions and fire from extreme distances, changing positions after each salvo.
In general, everything is still as before. The Russian army is crushing the enemy, the losses of the Ukrainian Forces are growing exponentially, and Ukraine is trying to plug the gaps at the front with new reinforcements, throwing them into battle as soon as they get off the trucks, which undoubtedly further increases the number of dead and wounded in the ranks of the Ukrainian army.
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Lots of damaged equipment.
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