Russia and economic war by the west #2

Not sure whether this should be in the propaganda thread.
It looks like he's honestly trying, stupid as he may be.

Trade volume change by country since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 (NYT)
+310% India
+198% Turkey
+106% Brazil
+81% Belgium
+64% China
+57% Spain
+32% Netherlands
+13% Japan
-3% Germany
-17% South Korea
-35% USA
-76% Sweden
-79% UK

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1587265999245565953

AlfaT8 wrote:Not sure whether this should be in the propaganda thread.
It looks like he's honestly trying, stupid as he may be.

This seems like a different take compared to his usual. Maybe he is trying to clickbait anti-Russian people into watching the video?

Given the breadth and depth of the Western sanctions it is quite surprising how little impact they have had thus far in Russia actually. 3-5% drop in GDP when a lot of people were saying 10% and more when the war started. In contrast some even said Germany would continue growing after the sanctions and now their output is collapsing faster than the Russian one. And that is without Russia making any real counter sanctions which they could easily do.

Like he said the main impact seems to have been in the car manufacturing industry but there will likely be an impact in the civilian shipbuilding sector as well. However I expect the car industry to mostly rebound in the next 2-3 years. At the same time civil aviation construction will massively ramp up so you will see a huge boost in industrial output. With regards to Russian rise in inflation from what I have seen, with exceptions like cars, it seems to be much worse in Europe.

AlfaT8 wrote:Not sure whether this should be in the propaganda thread.
It looks like he's honestly trying, stupid as he may be.

The analyst said that Russia is doomed to stagnation and inflation. This type of forecast is what takes away the credibility of the analyst. Part of the assumption is that the government is going to stand still and simply let the economy move by inertia. It is more than evident that countermeasures are being taken to avoid this situation. But one thing we can say. The situation of the Russian economy today is far from the chaos projected by NATO and the EU and other Westerners when they applied mass sanctions.

ludovicense wrote:
The analyst said that Russia is doomed to stagnation and inflation.

A day of even more fascinating theories (yes I know it is not yours but from some random dude from YT)
And how in detail "doomed to stagnation and inflation" is a country that faced deflation at the moment, will incorporate few million new citizens, 100kkm2 of new, highly urbanized territories they need to rebuild&reshape, and is extensively working on being self sufficient to the autarky level?
Geee ...

ALAMO wrote:

ludovicense wrote:
The analyst said that Russia is doomed to stagnation and inflation.

A day of even more fascinating theories (yes I know it is not yours but from some random dude from YT)
And how in detail "doomed to stagnation and inflation" is a country that faced deflation at the moment, will incorporate few million new citizens, 100kkm2 of new, highly urbanized territories they need to rebuild&reshape, and is extensively working on being self sufficient to the autarky level?
Geee ...

you don't get it , do you? ze West is despicable indispensable. No progress can be made without west participation or permission. No analyst claims otherwise, only Cremlobots

What i found funny is this guy's assumption that once the oil price caps are i place, then China and India are also gonna demands these lower prices, despite not being part of this price control nonsense.
Why the F would India and China join the West at that point and screw Russia, it makes no goddamn sense.
And this is to say nothing about price controls historically never working out.

Indeed. The friendly nations to Russia and other fossil fuel producing nations will not take kindly to the price caps. Not just because they are friendly but because it is in their self interest to bolster Russia in these crazy economic battles. They know if Russia was truly broken, it would eventually be their doom as well. The west overplayed their hand. With the planning and introduction of price caps on fossil fuels and the talk of making laws out of thin air to steal Russia's foreign assets, the global south and east is largely backing Russia to smack the pride and hubris out of the west. The crazy thing is there is actual good will still amongst many in Africa and west and east Asia towards Europeans and Americans in spite of all we have done. I hope we can clean house and do all we can to rebuild trust with other nations as peers. Not as servants.

The friendly nations to Russia and other fossil fuel producing nations will not take kindly to the price caps. Not just because they are friendly but because it is in their self interest to bolster Russia in these crazy economic battles.

And even neutral oil producing countries have been suffering with the west manipulating oil prices artificially to try to damage Russia and when the oil price was $40 a barrel they were suffering... and it wasn't just for a week but for years and now the price has gone up and they can make money to recover and pay back some debt the west is complaining about expensive energy and wants these countries to be nice and give up their good times to help out the pricks that have made them suffer all this time.

The west does not do suffering well... loves to inflict suffering and poverty to influence or impose their will, but all of a sudden there is no coffee in the shops or the price of fuel goes up and then there is a problem.

Vietnam also has been making its position clear over the course of the year, despite all previous US attempts to turn it into a Ukraine against China (or a 2nd Taiwan if you will), and lately having encouraged Vietnam to maintain its distance from Russia as well.



https://thediplomat.com/2022/10/vietnams-un-abstention-casts-doubt-on-its-commitment-to-principle/

Vietnam’s UN Abstention Casts Doubt on Its Commitment to Principle

By refraining from condemning Russia’s attempts to annex four regions of Ukraine, the country signaled its continued prioritization of national interests over moral principles.

https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-treasures-and-wants-to-deepen-ties-with-russia-pm/232310.vnp

Vietnam treasures and wants to deepen ties with Russia: PM

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh received Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov in Hanoi on July 6, during which the PM affirmed that Vietnam has attached great importance to its comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia and wanted to deepen and make the bilateral cooperative ties more effective in all spheres.

Plus some nice economics:

https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-backs-increasing-aseanrussia-strategic-partnership-minister/236069.vnp

Vietnam backs increasing ASEAN-Russia strategic partnership: minister

Vietnam consistently supports the strengthening of the ASEAN-Russia strategic partnership, affirmed Politburo member and Minister of Public Security Gen. To Lam on August 22 at the 2nd ASEAN-Russia Consultations of the High Representatives for Security Issues.

https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-russia-seek-ways-to-enhance-agricultural-cooperation/224805.vnp#&gid=1&pid=1

Vietnam, Russia seek ways to enhance agricultural cooperation

Vietnamese Ambassador to Russia Dang Minh Khoi and Russian Deputy Minister of Agriculture Sergey Levin discussed measures to beef up agricultural cooperation between the two countries during a meeting in Moscow on April 7.

https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnamrussia-joint-venture-welcomes-first-oil-flow-from-ca-tam-fields-second-rig/242881.vnp

Vietnam-Russia joint venture welcomes first oil flow from Ca Tam field's second rig

Vietnam-Russia oil and gas joint venture (Vietsovpetro) on October 28 welcomed the first flow of oil pumped up from Ca Tam 2 production platform (CTC-2) at Ca Tam oil field.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/456043/novatek-eyes-exporting-lng-to-vietnam/

Novatek eyes exporting LNG to Vietnam

Russia’s Novatek is considering exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Vietnam for existing and future power plants, said the Russian gas company's CEO, Leonid Mikhelson.

This is the late economist Mason Gaffney on Russia preserving its economic sovereignty:

https://www.masongaffney.org/workpapers/WP080%20Taxable%20Surplus%20in%20Russian%20Land.pdf

Lavrov to TASS saying the unsayable in the West. The US ramming the fact that they are vassals down the throat of Europe, 'suck it up slaves'.

This week both Japan and India confirmed that they are not supposed to close their share in the Sakhalin-1 LNG project.
Oh my oh my oh my ...

For god sake, the entire containment of China strategy is a lost cause, of course Vietnam was never going to commit to U.S plans, they were always going to parley with Russia to help them keep the peace with China.
There was absolutly no chance they were remotly interested in sacrificing themselves for the West.

As for the others, S.korea would always be kept in check by N.korea, Japan of all countries, would probly be the last country to ever seek a direct clash with China, becuase there is simply no way a country that alrrady suffered 2 nuclear bombings would ever seek getting nuked a third time.
Hell, the japs already threw washington under the bus when they started dumping US bonds and collapsing the bond market.

The phillipense are just a wild card.
The only ally i can see actually commiting to the containnent strategy is maybe australia, and i say maybe becuase australian still has big investment in China, despite all their anti-china rethoric.

Australia.    The country which will spend Billions now for guarding his trade routes from China. Biggest trading partner: China. 

Hole wrote:Australia.    The country which will spend Billions now for guarding his trade routes from China. Biggest trading partner: China. 

.. and a giant share of ore and coal in the export structure, because it is an advanced western style economy, not like the bloody Russkie gas station.

The only ally i can see actually commiting to the containnent strategy is maybe australia, and i say maybe becuase australian still has big investment in China, despite all their anti-china rethoric.

Australia is like Canada... the US sees them as working dogs and in return both countries are keen to please the master... you can lock them in the boot of your car because they stink too much to be allowed on the seats, but when you open the boot and throw the ball they think you love them like a son...

If they get lost or hit by a car you buy a new one.

Australia and Canada act like loyal dogs, but the US acts like an insensitive cold callous bastard of an owner that shouldn't be allowed any contact with any other living things.

Another interesting analysis plucked from MoA.

The most important observers of the Ukraine crisis are the non-West elites, looking to see if the US/West is declining further. Such things can get self-reinforcing very quickly and the Afghan retreat, including the sheer incompetence of it, certainly dealt the US a blow. Also, the West in general given how badly the US treated its allies. The inability to subjugate Iran and the failure in Iraq/Venezuela/Nicaragua (now with much greater Iranian influence than before the US invasion) already reduced the US stature/ability to scare with the non-West elites.

With Ukraine the West has really backed itself into a corner with its ignorant assumptions about the strength of Russia and the readiness of the non-West elites to support Russia or refuse to sanction it. With Europe in dire straits due to the sanctions and the Federal Reserve seemingly intent on "breaking something" to bring down inflation thins can only get worse. A successful Russian winter campaign will only increase the Russian prestige more and reduce that of the West. So logically the West should start to back down and negotiate.

Unfortunately, I don't think that the Western elites can stomach the geopolitical loss of being shown to have lost in Ukraine and will therefore stay in their Ukrainian strategy for much longer than is warranted. In addition, the Western elites invested a lot to gain control of the Ukrainian black soil and its other resources, together with a "Haitinized" workforce. There are also a lot of smoking guns in Ukraine pointing to US bio-labs and extensive involvement of the Western political elites in Ukrainian corruption. In addition, they did leave Afghanistan, but only after 20 years of failure!

I would not be surprised to see this dragged on until the winter of 2023/2024 when Europe will be faced with a much bigger disaster given a probable colder winter (El Nino after 3 years of La Nina) and lower gas storage levels (no Russian gas at all in 2023). Then there may be severe problems within the Western elites, especially if the Fed successfully engineered a nasty US recession making things even worse for Europe. The loss to the West will be much greater than if they had pulled a "stop loss", but this is how arrogant imperial elites tend to fail - underestimating their opponents and overestimating themselves and then unable to accept the realities that will crumble their view of themselves. How can the elite of the "indispensable nation" accept that they are just ordinary?

Posted by: Roger | Nov 2 2022 15:04 utc | 47

Slavyangrad is making a claim that, beyond any agreement, shipping grain is now a real problem because electricity is needed for the loading.

Also increasing issues with power for the railway.

Anyone seen anyone discuss those issues?

France's largest glassmaker Duralex suspends operations for 5 months due to skyrocketing electricity bills.

“The price of energy usually represents 5% to 7% of our turnover, analyzes José Luis Llacuna, president of Duralex. Today, it is around 40%.  It is not tenable. » The glassmaker’s energy bill has gone from 3 million euros last year to 12 million euros this year, the company says.

https://newsinfrance.com/duralex-will-halt-production-due-to-energy-prices/

One of the biggest victims of "Nord Stream" sabotage is the German energy company "Uniper", which reported a net loss of 40 billion euros .

https://twitter.com/CanadianKitty1/status/1588155648180912128


So UK and USA really gave scholz a big middile finger in his a** , that's why he is in China i guess .

The train that those of us who are in the West are unwilling passengers on

ahmedfire wrote:France's largest glassmaker Duralex suspends operations for 5 months due to skyrocketing electricity bills.

“The price of energy usually represents 5% to 7% of our turnover, analyzes José Luis Llacuna, president of Duralex. Today, it is around 40%.  It is not tenable. » The glassmaker’s energy bill has gone from 3 million euros last year to 12 million euros this year, the company says.

https://newsinfrance.com/duralex-will-halt-production-due-to-energy-prices/

One of the biggest victims of "Nord Stream" sabotage is the German energy company "Uniper", which reported a net loss of 40 billion euros .

https://twitter.com/CanadianKitty1/status/1588155648180912128


So UK and USA really gave scholz a big middile finger in his a** , that's why he is in China i guess .

Do you think he will be able to do anything in China? I am not being sarcastic here, just wondering.

par far wrote:Do you think he will be able to do anything in China? I am not being sarcastic here, just wondering.

Sure

But the Chinese would be fools to give him too much

They still have their fingers burnt from the Motor Sich acquisition that the CIA then overruled and effectively confiscated China's would-be control over. And their money.

The restrictions on Huawei in the US, Canada, the UK. Other Chinese tech firms and suppliers. Now the edict on stopping microprocessor exports to China

And now all the Western firms that have pulled out their investments and production from Russia, or tried to do so. All the European and other suppliers that are now refusing to sell to Russia. The big cableway transport system under construction between the Russian city of Blagoveschensk and the Chinese city of Heihe right across the Amur river from it - has been postponed due to French manufacturer Poma now pulling out of the deal and refusing to supply mechanisms.

And Germany is scarcely any better, and can be expected to take part in all the same vis-a-vis China were some crisis to erupt over Taiwan

If the Germans want to invest into Chinese production and factories in China then I'm sure they'd be facilitated. The Chinese insist on something quite clever - 51% ownership for the Chinese state of all factories opened or acquired by foreign investors in China. Which does limit the damage that any foreign pullout can do, but doesn't eliminate it. The Chinese wouldn't want to be in a position where they would be dependent on the Germans for parts, servicing or continued access to technologies; particularly for their own infrastructure, or own value-added production further down the supply chain. Therefore any deals would have to be carefully curated and scrutinized for any sources of vulnerabilities

The reason why the United States
want to rob Russia.

https://twitter.com/aleksandraopal2/status/1588900772020117504/photo/1

Well, well

So, its OK for US banks, how about those in the UK and EU? No chance?

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The State Department and the US Treasury are calling on large banks to cooperate with strategically important companies in Russia

In particular, the US authorities are asking banks to continue to cooperate with Gazprom, Uralkali and PhosAgro, Bloomberg clarifies.