Russia and economic war by the west #2

REC and Rospatent to Jointly Promote 'Made in Russia' Programme, 04.30.2023.

The Russian Export Centre (REC) and the Federal Service for Intellectual Property (Rospatent) have signed a cooperation agreement, the main task of which is to outline measures to promote innovative companies that have received a patent on foreign markets, including through the Made in Russia certification programme, the REC reports.

The programme was re-launched last year and its trademark - a bird in the colors of the Russian tricolor - has been registered with Rospatent, in the EU, and also in some countries in Asia. An agreement on information cooperation was signed by Veronika Nikishina, director general of the Russian Export Centre, and Yuri Zubov, head of Rospatent.

"The Made in Russia umbrella brand is designed to help companies, including small brands, to become recognizable in export markets, to carry the idea and images that 'Made in Russia' equals quality. And in this matter, we see strategic importance in combining our efforts with the events and projects of Rospatent, which are aimed at identifying and registering confident regional brands. This is also one of the vectors of cooperation envisaged by the agreement," explained Nikishina.

For instance, within the framework of the agreement, the parties will provide each other with consultations, information, and expert support in the promotion of the Made in Russia programme as well as the Successful Patent competition that is aimed at identification of the breakthrough patented developments that have had the highest economic effect. The winners will be recommended to participate in the Made in Russia programme.

In addition, the document provides for the search and development of new long-term relationships between business, the REC, and Rospatent, including cooperation in the investment-financial sphere as well as export-import activities.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20230430/rec-and-rospatent-to-jointly-promote-made-in-russia-program--1109941399.html

Oil for sugar barter in the long run? Russian sugar beet farmers and industry could gradually turn to grain production where they have comparative advantages. Geopolitically India is a key player.

Georgy Bovt (political scientist)- about what hinders the Russian-Indian trade in rupees, despite the general intention to move away from settlements in dollars

, in Rossiyskaya Gazeta. 05.07.2023.

The other day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed in New Delhi the problem of mutual settlements in Indian rupees, with which certain problems arose. How can they be solved?

Lavrov himself explained the situation this way: "We have accumulated billions of rupees in the accounts of Indian banks, we need to use them, these rupees must be converted into other currencies, this is being discussed." The problem of switching to settlements in national currencies was raised by Moscow and New Delhi last spring. Both countries would like to move away from the dollar, but for different reasons. Russia - because the dollar has become a weapon in anti-Russian sanctions. India - because its foreign trade balance is deficient: against the backdrop of a rapidly developing economy, imports far exceed exports, there is a shortage of currency. New Delhi is making efforts to increase the share of the rupee in foreign trade settlements. However, the rupee is a non-convertible currency, foreign counterparties need to open accounts in India, respectively, and then seek permission from regulators to convert rupees in any transaction.

With countries with which India's balance of trade is relatively even, the problem is easier to solve: the accumulated rupees can be used to purchase Indian goods. First of all, those countries that also have a deficit of dollars are interested in settlements with India in its currency. For example, Sri Lanka, which defaulted last year, or Bangladesh, whose gold and foreign exchange holdings are "scraping the bottom." But they are not the only ones striving to "get away from the dollar." An agreement was recently signed with New Delhi on settlements in rupees with Malaysia. Already about 20 countries have opened rupee accounts in India. Among them are Mauritius, Kenya, Tanzania, Oman, but also Germany, Israel and Singapore. Negotiations are underway with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This does not mean a transition to trading only in rupees - they become one of the settlement currencies, along with the same dollar.

Ten years ago, India agreed on payments (and export-import offsets in rupees and moving away from the dollar in this area) in rupees for Iranian oil, then Iran had long been under sanctions. It is possible that this model was also meant in the negotiations with Moscow. What didn't work?

In the spring of 2022, the ruble experienced a strong fall and at some point was cheaper than the rupee, the exchange rate of which is generally very unstable. However, over the past year, the ruble appreciated against the Indian currency by about 8-10%. This happened against the backdrop of a sharp increase in Russian exports to India. By switching oil exports from West to East, Russia increased them to India by 33 times. Against the backdrop of sanctions, the supply of fertilizers and coal increased several times. Mutual trade for the year increased by almost 2.5 times. But primarily due to the growth (4 times) of Russian exports, while Indian exports to Russia fell by 12%. Imports from Russia to India by April 2023 grew to 51 billion yoy, while exports from India to Russia amounted to less than 3 billion dollars.

There was a huge trade surplus in favor of Russia. According to experts, if current trends continue, it can steadily amount to $40 billion annually. India simply does not have such a number of rubles that it could earn from its exports to the Russian Federation. So the rupees earned from Russian exports and accumulated in Indian banks are literally nothing to spend on. Up to a certain point, the problem was partly solved by the fact that some calculations were carried out in UAE dirhams (this is a stable currency pegged to the dollar). However, after the United States imposed blocking sanctions against MTS Bank, which opened a subsidiary in the Emirates, this channel was blocked. On the other hand, both countries do not want to return to dollars either. This is fraught with the blocking of the settlements if they "do not like" the sanctioners from Washington. It is for this reason that India is still unable to make the remaining payment for the Russian arms delivered to it in the amount of $2 billion. Since weapons are "sanctioned goods."

The hope was that in exchange for increasing Russian raw material supplies, New Delhi would increase exports to Russia of machinery, equipment, petrochemicals, and especially electronics. There were talks about the possibility of supplying spare parts for the Airbuses and Boeings used by Russia that fell under the sanctions, which did not happen. India increased exports to the Russian Federation except for seafood (by 33%) and raw materials for pharmaceuticals (by 10%), but reduced supplies by 10% of more complex pharmaceutical components and biotechnological products, by 31% - metallurgical products and by 89% telecommunications. That is, the Indians do not want to help circumvent the sanctions, although they did not formally join the sanctions. Not only for fear of secondary sanctions, but also because it is the United States that has now become their main trading partner, having overtaken China in 2022: mutual trade increased by 7.65%, to $128.55 billion, Indian exports to the United States grew by almost 3%, to $78.31 billion. In trade with America, India has just a surplus.

Which exit? Firstly, India could still increase its exports to Russia of the goods it needs, given that it is unlikely that even the United States will act against its important partner in the Asian region with the same rigidity with which they act against small countries. Secondly, the Chinese yuan could be more actively used in settlements instead of dirhams (part of the settlements with India, as far as is known, already pass through China), as well as the Hong Kong dollar. However, these currencies are also limited convertible. Thirdly, the accumulated rupees could be used in Russia to create a joint venture. Fourth, it is possible to develop multilateral settlement mechanisms within the framework of the BRICS, the political will of the participating countries for this is growing. But this will take time. In any case, the situation with the settlements in national currencies with India, although difficult, is not yet hopeless.

https://rg.ru/2023/05/07/chto-meshaet-rossijsko-indijskoj-torgovle-v-rupiiah.html

Russia could provide those rupees to Russian businessmen to open up businesses in India to provide products and services to Russia.

Brussels plans to slap sanctions on Chinese companies aiding Russia’s war machine, Financial Times reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/brussels-plans-slap-sanctions-chinese-companies-aiding-russias-war-machine-ft-2023-05-07/

May 7 (Reuters) - The European Union has proposed sanctions on Chinese companies accused of selling equipment that could be used in weapons to support Russia's war machine, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

Seven Chinese businesses have been listed in a new package of sanctions that will be discussed by EU member states this week, the report said, citing a copy of the sanctions list seen by the FT.

According to the FT, the sanctions list includes two mainland Chinese companies, 3HC Semiconductors and King-Pai Technology, along with five from Hong Kong including Sinno Electronics, Sigma Technology, Asia Pacific Links, Tordan Industry and Alpha Trading Investments.

The European Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Some companies like King-Pai Technology have already been placed under sanctions by the United States, which said it was a China-based supplier for multiple entities in Russia's military-industrial complex.

Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine 14 months ago, which Russian President Vladimir Putin termed a "special military operation", the EU has adopted 10 sanctions packages against Russian individuals and companies, inflicting economic hardship and making financing the war more difficult.

hardship for whom?

After hardship for Russia (GDP growth a opposite to most of EU) now to China?

Russia strikes back at Finland and Germany. And strikes ahead

https://ria.ru/20230507/aktivy-1870212306.html

Article is pretty long check out BTW.

The other day, the energy concern Fortum sent an official notice to the Administration of the President of Russia that the Finnish side categorically objects to, let's quote, "the illegal seizure of the Russian subsidiary of PJSC Fortum."

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All blows over the past year and a half, Russia dealt strictly in response to similar attacks against itself. So it was this time, about which the Finnish concern Fortum prefers to keep quiet. For example, Finland unilaterally seized the local data center of the Yandex company, more than 800 Russian railway cars, land and real estate that were state or private property of Russian citizens.

I steal from you it is world of rules otherwise you are a thief!

Russia needs to block public availability of trade data for things like semiconductors so these stupid Western sanctions cannot be done as easily. The West fished this information out of Russian trade data which was out in the open.

How Russia can solve the problem of rupees stuck in India, by Ilya Lakstygal and Mikhail Kuznetsov for Vedomosti. 05.08.2023.

A stuck currency should be exchanged for yuan, dirhams or gold.

In trade settlements with India, Russia has accumulated "billions" of limited convertible rupees in accounts in Indian banks, which it cannot use. This was announced by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during a press conference following the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries in Panaji (Goa) on May 5. 

"This is problem. We need to use this money. But for now, these rupees have to be converted into another currency. The issue is being discussed,” Lavrov said, without explaining what alternatives are being considered by Russia and India ( quote from a transcript on the website of the press service of the Russian Foreign Ministry). The day before, Reuters, citing Indian government sources, announced the suspension of negotiations on trade in rupees between Moscow and Delhi. The interlocutor of the agency then stressed that the Indian side "tried everything they could to try to make it work." Another source explained that most bilateral payments continue to be made in US dollars, as well as dirhams and "several other currencies." 

According to the Indian Ministry of Commerce, Russia has climbed 16 positions to become India's fourth-largest source of goods imports in fiscal year 2022/2023 (ended March 31) and fifth trading partner overall. The volume of imports of Russian goods increased from $9.86 billion to $41.55 billion. The share of Russia in the structure of Indian imports increased from 1.6% to 6.5%. At the same time, exports from India to Russia amounted to $2.8 billion, while the deficit for Delhi, thus, amounted to $38.74 billion. All imports of goods into the country for the corresponding reporting period increased by 16.5% to $714 billion compared to $613 billion in fiscal 2021/2022. Exports of goods of the country for the same period amounted to $447 billion ($442 billion a year earlier).

The problem of imbalance

Experts interviewed by Vedomosti agree that the reason for the difficulties in Russian-Indian trade settlements in rupees lies in the structural features of the Indian economy itself, imbalances in bilateral trade and the country's trade as a whole.

India is a country with a high trade balance and overall current account deficit: the need for imports is almost twice as large as exports, said Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie investitatsii . Russia supplies India with goods that are in global demand, while Delhi has very little to offer, the expert is sure. In his opinion, Indian companies can replace Europe in textiles, medicines, and exotic food items. They can also increase the supply of goods from Western companies manufactured in India. But these operations may be subject to special sanctions control, warns Kochetkov.

The idea of ​​abandoning the dollar and switching to national currencies in trade initially had a defect, Anton Prokudin, chief macroeconomist of Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, believes: the volumes of exports and imports between countries are obviously not equal. The accounts of Russian companies constantly accumulate currencies of other countries, to which exports go, the expert states. To use them, you need to exchange them for the currencies of other countries with a strong financial system, says Prokudin.

The deficit of rubles in Indian banks due to the imbalance of trade has created difficulties for Russian companies in converting revenue in rupees into rubles, it can only be carried out in the domestic Indian market, explains Associate Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finance of the Russian University of Economics. G. V. Plekhanova Elena Voronkova. According to her, the investment of Russian companies in Indian stock values ​​is also difficult because of the fear of Western sanctions by the Indian side.

At the same time, the issue of equalizing trade with India is not the most urgent for the economy, says Arthur Leer, vice president of the Association of Exporters and Importers. In his opinion, it is better to dispose of assets correctly than to make wrong hasty decisions. He recalls that this situation is not new for Russia - in 2022, there was an imbalance in trade with the EU, Turkey and China. Mikhail Vasilyev , chief analyst at Sovcombank , agrees that the surplus of rupees is not being put to good use. “At the same time, after converting to another currency, Russia will be able to quickly use them to resolve current issues, such as buying imports and financing foreign projects,” he says.

From yuan to peso

Taking into account the fact that it is impossible to qualitatively manage the accumulated rupees at the moment, and transactions in dollars and euros create the risk of blocking, analysts interviewed by Vedomosti consider the most logical solution to transfer trade settlements to third currencies that are of interest to Russia and India, mainly Asian ones.

In mid-April, the Financial Times, based on data from the international interbank information transfer system SWIFT, calculated that the share of the yuan in global trade settlements increased from 2% in February 2022, when Russia launched a military special operation in Ukraine, to 4.5% by February 2023 Exactly the same amount - 2.5% - decreased the share of the dollar in world trade. In February 2022, 86.8% of trade settlements were carried out in it, and in February 2023 already 84.3%. The share of the euro in international trade settlements is 6% and does not change significantly.
Switching to Chinese yuan or UAE dirhams may be the most obvious and acceptable solution, Vasilyev said. Firstly, the expert says, these currencies are stable against the dollar, and secondly, Russia and India trade a lot with China and the UAE, so these currencies are in demand. Vasilyev envisions a scenario in which Russia can use its surplus in trade with India to buy goods in China for yuan and in the UAE for dirhams. A way out of this situation is possible, Voronkova admits, if you also use the Hong Kong dollar.

Also liquid, according to Prokudin, are Indonesian rupees, Brazilian reals and Mexican pesos. But in any case, the system using two currencies in mutual trade will continue to create complex settlement chains, increasing transaction costs in international trade, the expert believes.

The transition to settlements with India in yuan and dirhams is no different from using the dollar, Kochetkov disagrees, since the main problem - trade imbalance - will persist. In his opinion, a partial way out of the situation can be found if not the rupee and other currencies are used, but precious metals, or if the production of goods necessary for Russia is organized. “It is estimated that over 100,000 tons of silver and over 20,000 tons of gold are in the hands of the Indian population. In the sphere of production, the problem is that so far Russia itself is organizing licensed production in India, including the defense industry,” says Kochetkov.

Organizing re-exports for rupees of goods from countries with which India has closer trade relations could also be a solution, Leer and Kochetkov agree. However, according to the latter, this is complicated by the fact that many goods are subject to special sanctions control, and in Russia they are not in short supply or are not in demand, Kochetkov argues. Therefore, Moscow still has a way to reinvest Indian rupees in the development of the Indian economy in a beneficial way, the expert concludes.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2023/05/05/974042-rossiya-reshit-problemu-zavisshih-rupii

Kiko wrote:How Russia can solve the problem of rupees stuck in India, by Ilya Lakstygal and Mikhail Kuznetsov for Vedomosti. 05.08.2023.



https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2023/05/05/974042-rossiya-reshit-problemu-zavisshih-rupii

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Yuan is politically sensitive to Indians so Id say it is least probable option. More Indian investments in Russia or exporting pharmaceuticals. Drachmas is an option. Temporary solution? but what if west sanctions UAE?

Gold? India can buy gold form market and sell to Russia? diamonds?

Purchase Indian factories, businesses, gold/diamond or labor force etc. I don't think spending rupees in India is much of an issue.

Indian exports of gold and diamonds are jewelry made of those. They import the raw materials and export jewels. Cut diamonds and gold jewelry.

GarryB wrote:With a 40 billion dollar trade surplus I don't think any single solution is going to work, but a combination of a few different solutions would be interesting.
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As I said there is no single answer, but India might have a trade surplus with other countries so they could shift the excess foreign currency to Russia if they trade with those countries too and want to spend the local currency.

India cannot share $ ro Euro with Russia as this is under sanctions. As for more barter approach like Indian companies help Russian national infrastructure projects where Indians are paid in Rupees as Russian now has deficit of working hands... India has no such problem :-)

Well, there were Wolga Germans and Wolga Bulgarians, why not Wolga Indians?

Since March 2022, exports from Russia to the EU have decreased by only 5%, and 12 EU countries have even increased imports of Russian products, according to data from Eurostat and the Swedish Foreign Trade Agency.

Russia's surplus in trade with the EU amounted to 138 billion dollars in this period.

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1656390728279379972?cxt=HHwWiMC-he2l1_wtAAAA

Russian oil ban costs Polish oil company PKN Orlen millions a day, says boss.


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https://www.ft.com/content/a059a287-7a59-4f65-b1e9-9f6c19a36627

The ban on Russian crude oil is costing Poland’s state-controlled oil company millions of dollars a day as it struggles to find alternative supplies for its Czech refinery.

Daniel Obajtek, chief executive of PKN Orlen, described losing Russian oil as a forfeit of about $27mn a day because of the price difference of about $30 per barrel between the cheaper Russian oil and alternative supplies.

https://www.ft.com/content/a059a287-7a59-4f65-b1e9-9f6c19a36627

Scrooge McPutin.

Russia and India reviving rupee settlements in trade, by Joydeep Sen Gupta, RT Asia Editor. 05.15.2023.

The countries are avoiding dollar payments due to risk of secondary sanctions, says the CEO of a state-run lender

Several weeks after rupee-ruble talks were reportedly suspended over concerns by both Russia and India about secondary sanctions, a new mechanism has emerged to facilitate non-dollar settlements.

The traditional allies are turning to settling outstanding non-oil payments with the excess Indian rupees in Moscow’s coffers, according to a top official at India’s United Commercial Bank (UCO Bank), a state-run lender. Although this is a new approach, the mechanism had actually been in the works since January.

Such a move augurs well for both India and Russia amid New Delhi’s new trade policy that aims to make a dent in the hegemony of the dollar.

Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, who visited New Delhi last month for trade talks, has been forthcoming about Moscow’s eagerness to carry out transactions in "national currencies and currencies of friendly countries [read India and China]” in a bid to reduce its dependence on dollars in light of US-led Western sanctions against Moscow owing to the Ukraine conflict.

The CEO of UCO Bank, Soma Shankara Prasad, said earlier that Gazprombank, a privately owned lender and Russia’s third largest bank by assets, was the first Russian banking entity to open a special rupee vostro account (SRVA) with UCO Bank last year.

Since January, as many as 20 transactions in the Indian currency have been carried out, all of which relate to Indian exports to Russia, Prasad said.

“The oil trade could be brought under the rupee mechanism after it is fully established and tested,” he added.

Prasad’s acknowledgement of the boost to the rupee-ruble trade mechanism comes after the country’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, allowed Russian banking institutions to open SRVAs. A vostro is an account held by one bank on behalf of another bank.

On February 6, Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov had said that Indian banks were cautious about using the rupee-ruble payment system to settle trade with Moscow because of concerns about secondary restrictions from the US.

So far, 20 Russian banks, including Gazprombank, Rosbank, Tinkoff Bank, Centro Credit Bank and Credit Bank of Moscow, have opened SRVAs with authorized dealer banks in India to enable rupee trade between the two countries.

The mechanism is gradually gaining traction, according to Prasad. It has also rekindled the so-called ‘rupee-ruble affair’, a Soviet-era mechanism with a similar aim of bypassing the dollar.

The authorized dealer banks in India for SRVAs are UCO Bank, Union Bank of India, State Bank of India, Industrial Development Bank of India, Indian Bank, Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda, and Punjab National Bank.

https://www.rt.com/india/576330-russia-pay-indian-exporters-rupees/

One of the problems the rupee has is that it's not a convertible currency. There are some restrictions relating to it.

Increasing Indian exports to Russia will help decrease the rupee surplus in Russian coffers but not eliminate it. And India is resisting the idea of switching to the Yuan for trade.
The new BRICS currency or virtual exchange currency couldn't come soon enough.