Russian special military operation in Ukraine #19

GarryB wrote:

Actually with the exception of hypersonic anti ship missiles the aircraft carrier and the larger cruisers in the US fleet were explicitly designed and intended to defend US ships from supersonic anti ship missiles.

The whole point of  AWACS and fighters was to shoot down anti ship missile carrying aircraft before they can launch their missiles and remains the most effective defence against air attack... a combination of air borne radar and fighters as well as ground (surface) based SAMs and guns and radars and sensors on a moving platform is as safe as you can get.

The alternative would be corvettes... hundreds of them which would be easy to pick off because their small size limits the number of missiles and radar and sensor sizes... Air power could deliver an enormous volley of missiles and withdraw and reload and attack again and again in the time it would take ships to turn and run.

I wasn't even thinking of aircraft launching said super/subsonic missiles, but ground-based launchers. These are much much cheaper and more durable than planes, but I suppose terrain matters here, too.

Nothing can defend against missiles 100%, even subsonic. I'd wager real odds are like 70-80% vs. supersonic and 80-90% vs. subsonic of a shootdown of a cruise missile. Only takes a one or a few to disable a carrier or sink an escort.

Russia could build and supply someone with a significant force of these, but I suppose they are much easier to find on sand (where the US and NATO are likely to mess around) than in a forest-y place like Ukraine.


Since you brought up air-launched versions, though...

In my opinion one thing sorely missing from the Russian air-based AShM arsenal is a long-range (1200-1500km) subsonic (maybe terminal supersonic) missile capable of being carried by Su-27 family planes (maybe even MiG-29s). 4x per plane for Flankers, 2x per MiG-29 size plane.

Ukraine has a seemingly endless supply of Tochkas (and Su-25s and MiG-29s).

dionis wrote:
In my opinion one thing sorely missing from the Russian air-based AShM arsenal is a long-range (1200-1500km) subsonic (maybe terminal supersonic) missile capable of being carried by Su-27 family planes (maybe even MiG-29s). 4x per plane for Flankers, 2x per MiG-29 size plane.

Ukraine has a seemingly endless supply of Tochkas (and Su-25s and MiG-29s).

There was an air launched version of the Kalibr cruise missile that's launched from fighter jets like the Su-27. It was launched from a container. Not adopted (yet) as far as I know?

BUT they don't really need it as they have Kinzhals and soon the Kalibr-M which are hypersonic. The Kinzhal has a range of around 2000km+ but the Kalibr-M's will have a 4500km+ range.

The Ukrs was blessed with a large air force they inherited from the Soviets. That included 160 Mig-29, 55 Su-27's, 58 Su-25's and 71 Su-24's.
They also inherited 90 Tochka missile launchers. They actually had far less in service recently due to neglect but this is pretty much the max they can scrape together. They can get a some Mig-29's and Su-25's from their new partners but it's not nearly enough to replace whats lost or in disrepair.

Mir wrote:

dionis wrote:
In my opinion one thing sorely missing from the Russian air-based AShM arsenal is a long-range (1200-1500km) subsonic (maybe terminal supersonic) missile capable of being carried by Su-27 family planes (maybe even MiG-29s). 4x per plane for Flankers, 2x per MiG-29 size plane.

Ukraine has a seemingly endless supply of Tochkas (and Su-25s and MiG-29s).

There was an air launched version of the Kalibr cruise missile that's launched from fighter jets like the Su-27. It was launched from a container. Not adopted (yet) as far as I know?

BUT they don't really need it as they have Kinzhals and soon the Kalibr-M which are hypersonic. The Kinzhal has a range of around 2000km+ but the Kalibr-M's will have a 4500km+ range.

The Ukrs was blessed with a large air force they inherited from the Soviets. That included 160 Mig-29, 55 Su-27's, 58 Su-25's and 71 Su-24's.
They also inherited 90 Tochka missile launchers. They actually had far less in service recently due to neglect but this is pretty much the max they can scrape together. They can get a some Mig-29's and Su-25's from their new partners but it's not nearly enough to replace whats lost or in disrepair.

What in the world in going to launch Kalibr-M? It's going to be a ship or a bomber. Maybe the Iskander system (1 per ground vehicle?).

Kinzhals are expensive.

Is Kalibr-M confirmed hypersonic? 4500KM range and hypersonic? That's gotta be one hell of a big rocket.

They need a cheap, partially stealthy (Kh-59MK2 style), medium-size, Flanker family capable (for very high # of launch platforms, unlike Kinzhal), subsonic or sub-supersonic combo, very long range AshM that will have satellite targeting capabilities to really deny NATO navy any leeway to move around.

dionis wrote:
What in the world in going to launch Kalibr-M? It's going to be a ship or a bomber. Maybe the Iskander system (1 per ground vehicle?).

Is Kalibr-M confirmed hypersonic? 4500KM range and hypersonic? That's gotta be one hell of a big rocket.

They need a cheap, partially stealthy (Kh-59MK2 style), medium-size, Flanker family capable (for very high # of launch platforms, unlike Kinzhal), subsonic or sub-supersonic combo, very long range AshM that will have satellite targeting capabilities to really deny NATO navy any leeway to move around.

Kalibr-M is hypersonic and said to be somewhat longer than the current Kalibr at 11m?, but is launched from subs, ships and aircraft.
Personally I am very happy with the Russian ASM type missiles - even the old Kh-22's can enter a building through the front door!

Who needs subsonic when you have supersonic and even hypersonic!

Btw the US failed once again in their effort to get hypersonic going. So for now hypersonic sucks and "high"-subsonic rocks!

Mir wrote:
Kalibr-M is hypersonic and said to be somewhat longer than the current Kalibr at 11m?, but is launched from subs, ships and aircraft.
Personally I am very happy with the Russian ASM type missiles - even the old Kh-22's can enter a building through the front door!

Do you have any source about it being hypersonic? I've never seen that mentioned anywhere.

Upgraded Oniks-M speed should be at 5 Mach, which makes it borderline, but not Kalibr.

caveat emptor wrote:

Mir wrote:
Kalibr-M is hypersonic and said to be somewhat longer than the current Kalibr at 11m?, but is launched from subs, ships and aircraft.
Personally I am very happy with the Russian ASM type missiles - even the old Kh-22's can enter a building through the front door!

Do you have any source about it being hypersonic? I've never seen that mentioned anywhere.

I'll have look.

dionis wrote:

What in the world in going to launch Kalibr-M? It's going to be a ship or a bomber. Maybe the Iskander system (1 per ground vehicle?).

Kinzhals are expensive.

Is Kalibr-M confirmed hypersonic? 4500KM range and hypersonic? That's gotta be one hell of a big rocket.

They need a cheap, partially stealthy (Kh-59MK2 style), medium-size, Flanker family capable (for very high # of launch platforms, unlike Kinzhal), subsonic or sub-supersonic combo, very long range AshM that will have satellite targeting capabilities to really deny NATO navy any leeway to move around.

To deny NATO moving around they just need kinzhal and kh-32. Nato move with its carriers and they have only 13 major carriers, including the french and british ones.

A stock of 60 kinzhal and 120 kh-32 will keep them away always.

For lonely ships that would be dumb enough to come close they have plenty of solutions like kh-31, kh-59mk, kh-35 or ship based oniks/kalibr/Tsirkon.

And they have kilo class subs that would destroy any ship in coastal waters.

They definitively have too much solutions to deal with nato ships.

A very long range subsonic missile is needed against fixed ground targets. Kh-59mk2 with more fuel will always be very good.

Mir wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:

Mir wrote:
Kalibr-M is hypersonic and said to be somewhat longer than the current Kalibr at 11m?, but is launched from subs, ships and aircraft.
Personally I am very happy with the Russian ASM type missiles - even the old Kh-22's can enter a building through the front door!

Do you have any source about it being hypersonic? I've never seen that mentioned anywhere.

I'll have look.

Couldn't find anything concrete myself but I am pretty damn sure that I read somewhere that the Kalibr-M will be part of a new generation of hypersonic missiles under development - but I could be wrong about this.

Anyway the Kizhal's range is given at 2000-3000km which means that a next gen range of 4500km is not that far fetched at all.

I am back, Lysychansk pocket practically closed

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/07/01/parte-de-guerra-01-07-2022-bolsa-de-lysychansk/

"The Russian army captured an Israeli mercenary who was fighting for Ukraine. He specializes in electronic warfare."


https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/13210

Ispan wrote:I am back, Lysychansk pocket practically closed

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/07/01/parte-de-guerra-01-07-2022-bolsa-de-lysychansk/

War part 07/01/2022 Lysychansk stock exchange
July 1, 2022 Zhukov

General situation of the last week

https://slavyangrad.es/2022/07/01/zmeiny-y-severodonetsk/

YESTERDAY 30 June

https://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/4191597.html

1. The Allied forces have completely captured the Lisichansk oil refinery. From there, the video has already started

2. The enemy has been driven out of the Privo'ye settlement and a clearing operation is underway
3. Also cleaning of the rubber factory and technical products
4. There is a battle for Verkhnekamenka
5. The Artyomovsk-Lisichansk highway 6 is completely closed
. It is reported that the Forces of Russia and LNR in Lisichansk took control of the Heroes of Stalingrad Street and part of Oktyabrskaya Street. About half of the city has been liberated.

In the future we can expect offensive actions in the following directions:
1. Privolye-Novodruzhesk, Privolye-Shipilovka and Privolye-Belogorovka to expand the bridgehead.
2. Refineries-Zolotorevka and Belogorovka to close the Lisichansky boiler.
3. It is possible to launch assault operations from the northern direction to Belogorovka.

General situation - summary of Readovka (fragments)

Current data from the previous day
A special military operation forces us to make difficult, but pragmatic decisions: today it became known that the garrison of the Russian Armed Forces defending the island of Zmeiny has abandoned it. The Russian Defense Ministry stated
he said at a regular briefing, calling it a "goodwill step.". Emotions aside, it is worth saying that it was the right decision, because it would make sense to defend this island, a small piece of rock in the middle of the sea, in case of an offensive on Odessa, which is not expected in the near future, and otherwise it will only be a waste of material and men. And as experts note, now the owner of this island automatically becomes a target for missiles.

Let's move on to the situation on the fronts:

Izyum-Slavyansk Front:

The DNR Militia Headquarters officially announced the liberation of the village of Sidorovo, this was previously reported by military correspondents, but now the information has been confirmed. Between this village and Slavyansk there is only one village - Mayak. They also write about the simultaneous offensive on Slavyansk from the east, and a Ukrainian plane was shot down in the vicinity of Kramatorsk.

Lugansk Front :

Chechen units crossed the Seversky Donets River in the Privolye region today, which is already half under Russian control, and the fighters are advancing.

Despite the statements of the representatives of the LNR, about the control of "30-50%" of the population of the city of Lisichansk it is too early to say. The ongoing cleaning operations: the territory of the refinery is being cleaned, Volcheyarovka is being cleaned, and Maloryazantsevo is being attacked. The retreating enemy is trying to establish itself on Zolotarevka, on the way to Seversk from Lisichansk. Vsushniki continues to hold the corridor through Belogorovka. Fighting continues in Belaya Gora and in the city limits. It is also reported about the beginning of our offensive in the direction of Seversk, from the oil refinery to Verkhnekamenskoye and from Nikolaevka to Spornoye.

Donetsk Front:

The Russian Armed Forces are slowly advancing on Klinovo, while Ukrainian fighters are holding out on Pokrovskoye. It is reported that the militants are preparing the defense of Artemovsk, which is already very close to the front. In addition, the Ukrainian Forces are strengthening the pubelos line between Seversk and Soledar, hoping, despite the unfavorable terrain, to organize a barrier here.


Today, July 1


Statement of the Russian Army (fragments)

️ ️ The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the successful offensive near Lisichansk (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/2531 ). Over the past three days, Russian units have taken under control the Lisichansk oil refinery, the Matrosskaya coal mine, the Gelatin plant and the Topolevka settlement. The Allied forces have reached Lisichansk.
The Ukrainian army is suffering heavy losses in this area. In Verkhnekamenka alone, over the past 24 hours, the enemy has lost more than 120 people killed, as well as 70 in Verkhnekamenskoye.

The failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (in the combat area provoke an increase in the number of cases of desertion and evasion to participate in operations. There is a disorganized withdrawal of some Ukrainian units from Lisichansk (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/2531 ). The ando hides the facts of the understaffing of the units in every possible way. One of the battalions of the 17th Tank Brigade operating near Novaya Poltavka (Donetsk People's Republic) is left with less than 20% of the authorized force personnel.

ituation in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk direction as of 20:30 on July 1, 2022 by @rybar:

The situation for the AFU units in Lysychansk and the suburbs is deteriorating. The ring of enclosure is tightening.

The RF Armed Forces and the LMNR, developing an offensive from the direction of Pryvolya, have occupied Shipilovka and entered the outskirts of Novodruzhsk.

Apparently, the last road to Lysychansk from the direction of Belogorovka was intercepted in the area of Shipilovka. There is no tight control of the entire area yet, so the enclosed AFU units may still try to leave the city at night in small groups.

In the south of Lysychansk, the gelatin factory and the Matrosov mine settlement were taken. Allied troops have reached the high-rise development from the west. Fighting is going on.

Units of the AFU and foreign mercenaries who have not had time to retreat from the city will have to choose between captivity or destruction in the coming days.

Situation in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk direction at 20:30 on July 1, 2022 by @rybar:

The situation of Ukrainian units in Lysychansk and the suburbs is deteriorating. The ring of encirclement is tightening.

The Russian army and the Lugansk militia, developing an offensive from the direction of Pryvolya, have occupied Shipilovka and entered the outskirts of Novodruzhsk.

Apparently, the last road to Lysychansk from the Belogorovka direction was cut off in the Shipilovka area. There is still no strict control of the entire area, so the surrounded enemy units may still try to leave the city at night in small groups.

In the south of Lysychansk, the gelatin factory and the settlement of the Matrosov mine were taken. Allied troops have reached the high-rise development from the west. The struggle continues.

Ukrainian units and foreign mercenaries who have not had time to withdraw from the city will have to choose between captivity or destruction in the coming days.

PapaDragon wrote:
Interview with captured Azov member

https://thedreizinreport.com/2022/07/01/interview-with-a-stormtrooper/


I do love the cocky no-fucks-given attitude, he knows he is untouchable

This guy has some balls on him and knows he will be allowed to keep them (unlike some poor shmucks who will spend rest of their lives as living jokes and will go unavenged)


Looking forward to seeing this guy getting released and walking away scott free just like his Nazi-bros yesterday

Best way to fight Nazism is to make sure that maximum possible amount of Nazis walks free, right? Good old Soviet WW2 approach  

Those balls will push him to go back on the front and get captured again.

Win win for russians that get back their soldiers.

PapaDragon wrote:
Interview with captured Azov member

https://thedreizinreport.com/2022/07/01/interview-with-a-stormtrooper/


I do love the cocky no-fucks-given attitude, he knows he is untouchable

This guy has some balls on him and knows he will be allowed to keep them (unlike some poor shmucks who will spend rest of their lives as living jokes and will go unavenged)


Looking forward to seeing this guy getting released and walking away scott free just like his Nazi-bros yesterday

Best way to fight Nazism is to make sure that maximum possible amount of Nazis walks free, right? Good old Soviet WW2 approach  

Until 1917 they were ruled by a small parasitic ethnic German minority, so what did you expect?

So much so for the "defenders of Slavdom" who often seem to have problems with the Slavic Poles. Remember reading not too long on this forum someone writing "when Poland gets directly involved all Russian gloves will come off." How come the gloves do not come off for these Varangian shits?


Russians should know that such behavior will not earn them respect.

Isos wrote:
Those balls will push him to go back on the front and get captured again.

Win win for russians that get back their soldiers.

Really bad take bro. This is a type of guy you don't release at any cost. He is stupid and without scruples. If they didn't execute him on the spot, they should make sure he'll "cut himself while shaving" in the prison or some such.

PapaDragon wrote:
Had a talk with a guy who is captain in Serbian Army and he says that everyone he knows is flabbergasted both professionally and personally at that Russian river crossing fiasco (among other things, recent Nazi POW liberation fuckup included)



In general Russia is still pretty popular here but right now they are running on last can of nostalgia (good will was torched during the 90's)

While I'm perfectly aware that zero people give a shit about what we here think you need to keep in mind that if we who have very high tolerance for this loser BS are fed up with it you can bet the house that everyone else is most definitely fed up with it

And China has a proven track record of picking winners over losers

If Russia chooses to do a Milosevic and lose this little project with their humanitarian PR bullshit they will be losing a lot more than just a war (and no amount of nukes will save them just like they didn't save USSR)

Just putting it out there

No offense but why would Russia take advice from Serbian forces or care about how they feel?  They lost.  So far, Russia isn't losing. Plus the river crossing was a lot of assumptions. We do not know which vehicles those belonged to.

So, I still have not received a response.  But what is your take on Israel releasing Palestinians (mixture between Hamas and criminals), 1000 of them, for 1 guy?  This I am talking about the Gilad Shalit exchange.

PapaDragon wrote:

Never said they do

Then why mention your friend who was or is a soldier his opinion?  He wasn't there, nor in the know like those actually fighting.

Neither did we until we started doing what Russia is doing now

This is an assumption that Russia is going to make the same mistakes or that those mistakes you proclaim are the reason why your state lost in the end.  Guarantee there is no correlation.

Also we weren't fighting the size analogue of Luxembourg

Neither is Russia.  They are fighting the most hardened of European states that has entire of NATO backing it.

My opinion that it's their problem, they are the owners of that region, they get to do what they want

You cannot be selective on this.  Praising Israel in what they do but condemning Russia in what they do when both do the same thing is hypocrisy and nothing more.

Also, Israel is not trying to claim the status of global superpower, Russia OTOH is

Russia isn't claiming either.  They said they are not interested in being a super power.

One of these can afford to f*ck around, other one can't

Neither can screw around with these kind of things.  Difference is, Russia, like Israel, cares very much for their people and thus was able to release a bunch of either hurt, defeated or simply morons for their own guys.  Your concept of value for human life is very questionable at best.  I know you Serbs would be ok with your own men being massacred rather than handing over some of your enemies to get some of your boys back.  But not everyone feels the same.  Actually, most do not.

caveat emptor wrote:

Arrow wrote:

It will be difficult without universal mobilization

I don't understand why people see everything in binary outcomes. They don't have to call for general mobilization. Just call up people that served in the last 5-10 years or so and start using conscripts for tasks in the rear. Getting another 150k people should be enough.

but they are doing this, isnt it? by expanding age range for military contractors,

Russians can now sign the first contract not till 40 but 50
foreigners (like former USSR mainly) not till 30 but 50 years old..

BTW afaik the first contract can be signed after 4 moths of conscript service.

https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20220525/vozrast-1790632119.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop