Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23

Little Garry going back to the trash bin to the old "not Russian" "pick yourself up by your bootstraps" talking points.  Jesus!

The beauty of fvck ups is that new talking points from the top don't get disseminated as fast as the action develops. The lag makes the online disseminators look completely detached as they bring back old talking points not apt to current events. Case in point.

Just wait for the memo....

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:@boris_rozhhin

At 15 o'clock.

1. The enemy is trying to advance to the outskirts of Kupyansk. There is a fight going on right now. Reinforcements are sent to the city. The enemy, in turn, also drives additional forces to Kupyansk.

2. In the afternoon, it was reported that the enemy still squeezed our troops out of Shevchenkove and was using the road passing through the village with might and main to support the attack on Kupyansk.

3. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet announced the capture of Balakliya, reports continue to come that some kind of fighting continues in the Eastern part of the city. The tactical situation in Balakleya itself and to the east of the city is not completely clear.

4. The enemy reached the Kupyansk-Izyum road (mainly by the forces of the DRG and mobile light infantry groups thrown forward), as a result of which the supply will now go through Oskol. It is reported about the occupation of the Armed Forces of Senkovo ​​and Gorokhovatka.

5. Reinforcements of the Russian Armed Forces, including helicopters, are also transferred to Izyum.

@ Garryb , if it was planned they wouldn't be stuffing the entire area with mobile groups from every direction -

Things are getting dire for the russians in that area, just goes to show lack of troops is a problem

Lack of troops is only a symptom. The main problem is stinginess!!! Russia has the second best and capable air force in the world and they use it only homeopathic, because they fear every loss. And they fear the loss of every soldier, in contrast Ukraine doesn't care and conquered in 7 days more territory than Russia in 3 months.

That's the problem...if you flip every coin thousand times before spending and your are not willing to send conscripts or make a partial mobilisation...that are the results!!!

Azi wrote:
Lack of troops is only a symptom. The main problem is stinginess!!! Russia has the second best and capable air force in the world and they use it only homeopathic, because they fear every loss. And they fear the loss of every soldier, in contrast Ukraine doesn't care and conquered in 7 days more territory than Russia in 3 months.

That's the problem...if you flip every coin thousand times before spending and your are not willing to send conscripts or make a partial mobilisation...that are the results!!!

Russia doesn't need a mobilization or conscripts to do this the right way

I've said that time and again

It need competent commanders and application of force in efficient way

It's not a question of numbers, but of combined arms tactics -

They're trying to reinvent the wheel, just do what they did in Syria and it works the same way

Bomb hohols, and send in the ground forces after liquidating them

All the actions taken is some prototype military theory being applied , and it was because political leadership asked something impossible of the general staff

To act like firemen, which of course they are not

A military is not a hostage team,

SOBR has no business defending a city from a mechanized army

A military is a hammer , and you use it as such

Hows the RU counterbattery work? Rybar reports that kupyansk is being intensivley shelled by UA.

limb wrote:Hows the RU counterbattery work? Rybar reports that kupyansk is being intensivley shelled by UA.

Not sure. But yeah, AFU are bringing heavy equipment into the bulge. Shelling Kupyasnk, and Rybar also reports a Russian command post was destroyed in Dvorichna.

This ‘bulge’ is fast becoming something else….yesterday yeah it, looked like a pocket that could be squeezed but if the Rybar maps are accurate then now that’s out the window.

There was a near two week build up of these forces, why didn’t they use some monster non nuclear weapon to obliterate to 1) destroy the enemy and 2) deliver a psychological blow to the enemy??? I’m not getting this.

If this was expected or the plan….where the hell were the reinforcements. It looks to me like there are too many journey men in the senior ranks.

If a US carrier was sunk by "Islamists", I'm sure the satans of Washington would stop arming Bandera-stan.

Moving on, the Chicken Littledicks really need to get a grip of themselves.
So a bunch of suicidal Ukro-trash got drawn into a trap. Well well.

Many Nazis will die, a far far smaller number of Russians will die.
And the filth of the Pukraine will be defeated.
The Euro-cocksuckers are shitting themselves at higher gas prices alone.
Imagine what happens when the Ru army moves to the next stage!

A lot of people misconstrue what the criticism of the SMO actually is-

There is no need for more manpower, or a lack of equipment

1) The political leadership asked military commanders to put into place a large scale analogue of Beslan, Moscow Theater, Budyonnovsk hostage crisis

In essence on Z day - what we saw was military units enter cities walking without prior bombardment

As the SMO metastasized into a cancer removal situation , the political leadership continued to place strict rules of engagement on the military, and precise scalpel incisions were made on military targets by Kalibration, Kinzhalation, and Iskanderization of the entire Ukrainian Military Industrial complex

Okay, we understood the necessity to avoid civilian casualties

----

But the war progressed and despite loss of Soviet era supplies and manpower, we saw that Ukraine was able to draw on huge amounts of manpower and morale did not break, meaning they could keep conscription going and mobilizing more reserves

As well, despite the lack of airpower and other weaponry, they persisted on the battlefield and held the most important part: pro russian areas of Ukraine

So political leadership needed to have come to a conclusion,

1) hostage negotiations were attempted - "goodwill" retreats were made, no progress however and hostages died

2) precision SWAT style raids were made, and scalpel strikes on Ukro MIC - no joy, Ukros are supplied by west and continue to function as a military

3) ergo, this is not an SMO, it is a full scale war and SOBR, Rosgvard, and other units are not tailored to the conflict

4) Syrian scenario worked fine - give civilians corridors to exit the cities, as was done in Aleppo, Palmyra, Deir Ez Zor, Damascus - have the Russian army secure corridors and get them out

Begin bombing of the rear areas of the city, and level it - civilians will get the message that it is time to go

And that is IT - you will reclaim territory and liberate civilians as well as achieve victory over the terrorist regime of Kiev

----

It's not that I am a military expert, but that a template was established by General Staff ALREADY in 2015 Syria, and the politicians still believe that they can ask the general staff to work the equivalent of a miracle

JohninMK wrote:IF the Russian plan was to draw the UA out from their protected defensive lines into the open in large enough numbers to impact on the key objective of Kharkov city, especially perhaps the die hard units, it needed to be a very realistic, large scale and achievable. It had to be confirmed from NATO satellite and RC-135 etc watching and listening perspectives to such an extent that the UA unit commanders and SF were desperate to get at it and to be part of it. So, on the one hand it had to be militarily viable and on the other, if it could be timed to coincide with the 8th September Ramstein donors' meeting it would irresistible to the top US/UK/Ukr politicians' PR objectives. A slam dunk in other words.

This would be all about the lessor of two evils. We know that the Russian military strategy is very mathematical. This could have been where the algorithms at the Moscow MoD showed the best return of dead UA versus dead Russian UA citizens/military over the next few weeks.

They certainly took the bait, if it was such and the Russians are moving in reaction today. Given that overwhelming capability, regardless of whether it was a dastardly Russian plot or not, it could never have been more than a short term operation. Another throwing of men and machines into the mincer. So sad.

In the last weeks we had a lot of occasions when the Nazis gathered around 100 troops somewhere in the middle or even the west of their fake state and they were visited by ballistic or cruise missiles instantly. Does really somebody believe that Russia can see and react to 100 Nazi fighters gathering but won´t see 10.000 or even 20.000 of them being pulled together a few kilometres from the frontline? 

My 2 cents on the current situation:

No way this is planned by the Russians.

The West has looked and found a weak spot in the defences and thrown Ukranian flesh at it. Even if the Russians where able to discover this in advance, they would not have been able to react fast enough i think. There where probably more areas on the list and this attack would have come in a different spot.
This is simply well played by the West, doing a good job at rapidly moving around forces (disregarding obviously the huge losses on Ukranian side). The Russians knew such an attack was comming but failed to identify exactly where, and failed to react fast enough or IMHO. No need to go beyond that, whatever the reasons i am sure a lesson is learned.

It seems to me that there was plenty of Russian arty & air support involved once it became clear where the enemy was, but the enemy simply saturated the defences with mobile groups. Surely civilians will suffer because of this withdrawal, but i do believe it was tactically the right call to withdraw without taking much damage.
It will not be easy to regain lost ground however, as these mobile groups will dig in deep once the tide begins to turn.

Right now damage control should be the nr.1 priority. Get the right elements in the right areas, and start hurting any further advances, and take out as much of the heavy equipment as can be found.  Also realise that Ukraine/the West is still far from running out of bodies to throw into this conflict.
And after that, there needs to be a large scale push somewhere, to really turn up the hurt before winter arrives.

I will say one more thing, and probably get some flack for it:
If the Ukrops start another assault like this on another weak spot in the defences, then the whole SMO will be in a hard spot.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (September 9, 2022)

The Armed Forces of Ukraine made various unsuccessful attempts to attack, suffered losses and withdrew their forces at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction.

Manpower and military equipment of 46th Airmobile Brigade, 35th Marines' Brigade and 61st Chaser Infantry Brigade have been neutralised near Bezymennoye, Novogrigoryevka (Nikolayev region) and Sukhoy Stavok (Kherson region).

The enemy has lost a total of 3 tanks, 4 infantry combat vehicles and 7 other armoured vehicles, 2 pickups with large-calibre machine guns and over 270 servicemen at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction.

High-precision attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of the command posts of Kraken nationalist group deployed near Prishib (Kharkov region) and 93rd Mechanised Brigade near Artyomovsk (Donetsk People's Republic). Over 50 nationalists, as well as 16 units of special military equipment and motor vehicles have been eliminated.

Attacks launched by high-precision ground-based armament at the provisional bases of the units from 127th Territorial Defence Brigade and 14th Mechanised Brigade deployed near Kharkov have resulted in the elimination of over 50 and wounding over 120 Ukrainian servicemen.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery continue launching attacks at the military facilities in Ukraine.

8 AFU command posts have been neutralised near Lebyazhye, Chervony Yar, Gusarovka and Liman (Kharkov region), Maryinka and Ray-Aleksandrovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Krivoy Rog (Dnepropetrovsk region), Gulyay Pole (Zaporozhye region), as well as 52 artillery units, 153 AFU manpower and military equipment concentration areas.

3 AFU missile, artillery and munitions depots have been destroyed near Chuguyev (Kharkov region) and Radushnoye (Dnepropetrovsk region).

1 combat vehicle of U.S.-manufactured HIMARS multiple rocket-launching system has been destroyed near Chervony Donets (Kharkov region).

1 U.S.-manufactured M-777 howitzer has been destroyed near Rovnopolye (Zaporozhye region).

Air defence means have shot down 6 unmanned aerial vehicles near Izyum (Kharkov region), Staromlinovka, Kirillovka, Slavnoye and Makeyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as Sladkaya Balka (Zaporozhye region).

18 projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MRLS have been destroyed in air near Novaya Kakhovka and Golaya Pristan (Kherson region), as well as near Kakhovka hydroelectric plant.

In total, 293 airplanes and 152 helicopters, 1,916 unmanned aerial vehicles, 374 air defence missile systems, 4,870 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 827 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,371 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 5,417 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Kiev regime continues its provocations aimed at creating a possible technological disaster at Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

6 artillery attacks launched at Energodar have been recorder over the past 24 hours. A total of 27 projectiles have been launched from Marganets located at the opposite shore of Kakhovka reservoir.

The attack launched at the power transmission line has resulted in leaving the city without electricity.

Enemy firepower has been neutralised by Russian artillery's counter-attack.

The personnel controls the technical condition of the nuclear power plant.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4036

andalusia wrote:I just saw this article by Paul Craig Roberts and what do you guys think of this:

https://www.unz.com/proberts/the-kremlins-limited-military-operation-in-ukraine-was-a-strategic-blunder/

It was posted already. Here's my take. Imagine Russia did mobilize and run over the country to Kiev. Destroyed the govt and civilian infrastructure. It would be like Iraq 2003. Yes Russia could swing it's dick and show how powerful they are. But the Ukraine military would still be out there. Not destroyed. There would be an insurgency. There'd be civil chaos. It would really a like Iraq post 2003.

But perhaps there is a middle ground. Maybe Russia could have semi mobilized. And sped up some of these regional battles.

thegopnik wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:A MASS TRANSFER OF ARMORED EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL OF THE RF AF TO THE KHARKOV REGION IS URGENTLY GOING ON.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation uses Mi-26 helicopters to reinforce the Russian grouping near Kupyansk and Izyum.  Reserves are also suitable on the ground.
---

getting their ass kicked was all according to plan to trap ukrainians, no evidence that HIMARs were destroyed and now more equipment is being supplied to ukraine and I am sure this will encourage more foreign mercenaries to join the war as well. Was any territory regained yet? if territory was regained than Russian armed forces dont have to worry because of the pace they are moving in Ukraine they will be supplied more and trained better even more so we can all watch Russians be punching bags that will have to deal with more ukrainian stunts as they stay with 1/3rd of the country as their territory. I prefer ukrainians citizens to hurry up and fucking leave the country because its already proven you cant rely on another super power to protect you. Condolences to Russian family members that have their sons in this war.

This shit was so embarassing that not even the youtube channel history legends which seems more pro-russian wants to cover what happened and i dont blame him.

What punching bags?

How many Russian soldiers were killed?

Compared to the amount of Ukrainian ones?

What evidence of destroyed HIMARS, aircraft, T-72s or whatever do you need? Do you want the Ukros to take photos of their destroyed gear and post it online? Sorry, but they won't

Russians will not be punching bags because the Ukrainian-Russian casualty ratio is anything from 20:1 to 50:1. Supplied more and trained better? Who will be? Old men? Or the women that they're now preparing to bar from leaving the country like they did for the men?
Same goes for foreign mercenaries. They're a finite resource and their enthusiasm for this war has long since passed its peak. It didn't help that they in many cases were sent as cannon fodder with an AK, one magazine of ammo - straight to Kiev to soak up Russian firepower back when the city was under threat.

There is nothing embarrassing here. Everything we're hearing is hearsay. The 3rd corps, the meetings, whatever. We don't know any of the actual designations and tasks of whatever units and what they were meant to be used for - all that stuff is classified and what's leaked to the public is sometimes a complete lie, sometimes just has a kernel of truth.
So again, avoid jumping to conclusions.
We can see this morning that a massive amount of reinforcements is at the ready and already being deployed. This is 24h hours after this supposed disaster.
And if the Ukrs have held their heavier units behind - so then they smelled a trap. Shame. Would have been better if they had all gone in, you chicken littles would have panicked some more - but as a result a massive amount of Ukrainian forces would have been caught out in the open and possibly encircled.

0nillie0 wrote:My 2 cents on the current situation:

No way this is planned by the Russians.

The West has looked and found a weak spot in the defences and thrown Ukranian flesh at it. Even if the Russians where able to discover this in advance, they would not have been able to react fast enough i think. There where probably more areas on the list and this attack would have come in a different spot.  

The buildup of Ukranian forces here was noted on social media 1-2 weeks ago.

If the Russia missed that, it's a next-level embarrasment.

AFU destroyed the bridge across the Oskil in Kupyansk: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/63130

AFU are on the outskirts of Kupyansk: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/63127

dionis wrote:

0nillie0 wrote:My 2 cents on the current situation:

No way this is planned by the Russians.

The West has looked and found a weak spot in the defences and thrown Ukranian flesh at it. Even if the Russians where able to discover this in advance, they would not have been able to react fast enough i think. There where probably more areas on the list and this attack would have come in a different spot.  

The buildup of Ukranian forces here was noted on social media 1-2 weeks ago.

If the Russia missed that, it's a next-level embarrasment.

I agree, but for whatever reason, the Russian command did not move in large reinforcements. And like i said, there where probably other areas where the same could have happened. The Ukrop force would have attacked somewhere else or changed plans. I guess the command thought they where bluffing and expected "the big push" to come in a different area?

0nillie0 wrote:
I agree, but for whatever reason, the Russian command did not move in large reinforcements. And like i said, there where probably other areas where the same could have happened. The Ukrop force would have attacked somewhere else or changed plans. I guess the command thought they where bluffing and expected "the big push" to come in a different area?

That's what happens when you leave transport infrastructure intact. They can take whole brigades from Nikolaev to Kharkhov in one night.

Isos wrote:

Levi Godman?

Actually he is as pro russian as you. If he admits such thing it is true.

He's a Russian info-war tool, he'll write whatever is passed down to him from above. True, kind of true, or bullshit designed to misinform

dionis wrote:

0nillie0 wrote:My 2 cents on the current situation:

No way this is planned by the Russians.

The West has looked and found a weak spot in the defences and thrown Ukranian flesh at it. Even if the Russians where able to discover this in advance, they would not have been able to react fast enough i think. There where probably more areas on the list and this attack would have come in a different spot.  

The buildup of Ukranian forces here was noted on social media 1-2 weeks ago.

If the Russia missed that, it's a next-level embarrasment.

I can assure you that if twitter noticed it, Russian generals noticed it too. And the loud scandal between Zaluzhny and Zelensky where he tried to insist on doing an offensive towards Kharkov instead of Kherson. Yes, Russian command heard that one too. And Russian intelligence would have heard a lot more besides

caveat emptor wrote:

0nillie0 wrote:
I agree, but for whatever reason, the Russian command did not move in large reinforcements. And like i said, there where probably other areas where the same could have happened. The Ukrop force would have attacked somewhere else or changed plans. I guess the command thought they where bluffing and expected "the big push" to come in a different area?

That's what happens when you leave transport infrastructure intact. They can take whole brigades from Nikolaev to Kharkhov in one night.

Good, they can come to Russia instead of Russia coming to them

Arkanghelsk wrote:@boris_rozhhin

@ Garryb , if it was planned they wouldn't be stuffing the entire area with mobile groups from every direction -

That's precisely what you would do in fact if you were springing a trap

ATLASCUB wrote:Sheep herding is on overdrive by the usual suspects, in this forum and on the propaganda sphere by the "analysts".

"It's all a 5D chess cunning plan"   They literally take the sheep for idiots (because they're honestly - can't blame them).

Obsessing over soldier toy movement, which this "operation" has turned into, blinds the sheep from the bigger, more important aspects of the war, where the failure in strategy by leadership truly reside. The current events are just but a small manifestation of this larger problem. Sooner or later it was going to materialize into something tangible that even the sheep can see with their eyes.

The forum, on behest of propagandists whose job is to silence Kremlin dissent...and bad faith forum posters took a shit and snipes on "Girkin/Strelkov" all throughout.... turns out, he was right in most of his criticism, which obviously anyone not high on the koolaid more or less could analyze and come to similar conclusions. And it's not just him - many more voices, Russians one at that - if you dig deep enough. Pretty much by week 1 you could start making solid conclusions already.

Those volunteer units are surely showing their worth now, guarding the front of all places. Fret not, Russia still has much more to give. Patriots in command, remember?

Well done ATLASCUB, you're doing the enemy's job for them

And again. Fog of war is so insane in this conflict, that it makes no sense to judge an event, battle or operation until 2-3 days after the fact. That goes for all these alleged failures in strategy, leadership, movement, whatever. End of.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:@boris_rozhhin

At 15 o'clock.

1. The enemy is trying to advance to the outskirts of Kupyansk. There is a fight going on right now. Reinforcements are sent to the city. The enemy, in turn, also drives additional forces to Kupyansk.

2. In the afternoon, it was reported that the enemy still squeezed our troops out of Shevchenkove and was using the road passing through the village with might and main to support the attack on Kupyansk.

3. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet announced the capture of Balakliya, reports continue to come that some kind of fighting continues in the Eastern part of the city. The tactical situation in Balakleya itself and to the east of the city is not completely clear.

4. The enemy reached the Kupyansk-Izyum road (mainly by the forces of the DRG and mobile light infantry groups thrown forward), as a result of which the supply will now go through Oskol. It is reported about the occupation of the Armed Forces of Senkovo ​​and Gorokhovatka.

5. Reinforcements of the Russian Armed Forces, including helicopters, are also transferred to Izyum.

@ Garryb , if it was planned they wouldn't be stuffing the entire area with mobile groups from every direction -

Things are getting dire for the russians in that area, just goes to show lack of troops is a problem

And what are your sources?
Delta Force?

"Meat"

For now, it looks like breach is stabilizing.There's a talk from Ukrainian channels that around 50k troops were deployed for this operation. If they manage to deploy reinforcements and dig in, it won't be easy to expel them.
I agree with what Geroman says:
https://t.me/geromanat/460

Put simply, if the killed/loss ratio is favourable enough to Russia, then it makes no difference whether it is advancing or withdrawing.

Russia is pursuing the strategy of maximizing the enemy's losses while minimizing its own. Not racing to conquer more territory within a set amount of time, besieging cities or whatever else

caveat emptor wrote:For now, it looks like breach is stabilizing.There's a talk from Ukrainian channels that around 50k troops were deployed for this operation. If they manage to deploy reinforcements and dig in, it won't be easy to expel them.
I agree with what Geroman says:
https://t.me/geromanat/460

Again falling into the trap of labeling something as a catastrophe without waiting to see how it even ends.
All judgements less than 48h, preferably 72h after the fact can be used as toilet paper. You're all buying into the propaganda battle

And 50k my ass

Bro you're getting too emotional, which i understand. Even if i do agree about some of your points, presenting this as some sort of a trap set up by Russians, i don't buy. There's plenty circumstantial evidence that it wasn't a trap.
And just to repeat one more time. We are discussing here. Whatever is said here will not influence anything in the real world. From my side, i do have a weakness, that i tend not to believe in mistake free decision process of any government or power structure. Be it Serbian, Russian or US. I am always suspicious of bureaucracy and their tendency to **** up.

caveat emptor wrote:Bro you're getting too emotional, which i understand. Even if i do agree about some of your points, presenting this as some sort of a trap set up by Russians, i don't buy. There's plenty circumstantial evidence that it wasn't a trap.
And just to repeat one more time. We are discussing here. Whatever is said here will not influence anything in the real world.  From my side, i do have a weakness, that i tend not to believe in mistake free decision process  of any government or power structure. Be it Serbian, Russian or US. I am always suspicious of bureaucracy and their tendency to **** up.

It was no plan, idk why it hurts so much to admit

You don't plan something and then start moving shit hundreds of km away if it was planned

Which is fine, Russia is a superpower and can tolerate it

The solution is simple, enough with the kid glove bullshit

Send the VKS, open up some corridors and evacuate people out, wherever VSU blocks civilians, drop bombs and rockets on top, and that's that evacuate the people

And bomb the **** out of VSU

That's it, Aleppo, Palmyra, Deira Ez Zor, Dara worked perfectly

Stop treating this like a hostage crisis and more like a war and such things will not happen

caveat emptor wrote:For now, it looks like breach is stabilizing.There's a talk from Ukrainian channels that around 50k troops were deployed for this operation. If they manage to deploy reinforcements and dig in, it won't be easy to expel them.
I agree with what Geroman says:
https://t.me/geromanat/460

It won't be easy, if they do it like Donbass

It would be easy and take 3 months like Aleppo, if VKS flies up, drops washing machines and ovens on top of VSU and let army evacuate civilians

FSA was dealt with in the same way, and they had MANPADS and other such weapons and were entrenched - and were supported by NATO with similar weapons as VSU, including Toyota pickup, Milan ATGM, TOW 1, Igla MANPAD, artillery was provided across turkish border as well as fuel, so the same scenario

And manpower in Syria was not "1 million"

But there the military did things their way, not politicians