Backman wrote: flamming_python wrote: caveat emptor wrote: mr_hd wrote:
Regarding West -those countries are in decline and are not angels either, still most of them have far superior societies compared to Russia and have much more organized institutions, rule of law etc and sadly Russia is falling behind more last 5-6 years. Before that was making huge gains and progress - not anymore.
Bold part shows
Python. Do you think that Russia can strategically bomb Ukraine into surrender ? I don't think its in the cards. Because this govt doesn't care about Ukraine. Russia could bomb every power station for 3 weeks until theres not one light on in the whole country and Zelensky would still get on TV and demand Crimea.
So yeah. I think this army being moved to Belarus has to be the real deal. Thats the only way to solve it
I think given the circumstances Russia is adopting the right strategy
Some mass bombing campaign won't win the war, it will just dial up the extremism in the Ukraine and make rebuilding more expensive.
With infrastructure and cities intact however, people have something to lose.
Russia has been busy drawing the Ukrainian army and all its mercs out of the cities and fortifications, and into the field where said army can be smashed - even if Russia has to give up some territory as a bait.
The exact same strategy Podolyaka was talking about when the war started; the Napoleon-era doctrines of avoiding cities altogether and destroying enemies out in the open to win wars. And avoiding any more costly grinding battles such as Mariupol, where the DNR has lost half the men it has lost overall in the war, or whatever it is.
People who expected a swift victory will just have to deal with it. If the Ukraine was as isolated as Iraq was in 2003 then such an expectation wouldn't be out of place. Otherwise, no. Do realize that the collective West is going to spare no efforts to overthrow the Russian state, up to and including promoting separatism in Russia, which Western media are already talking about openly and Western-based 'Russian' NGOs and media are trying at the moment to implement.
And it won't just be limited to the Ukraine. Once Ukrainian manpower is spent, and that will soon be upon us, they'll throw Poland and other states into the fray. And so on.
This war won't be won when the Ukrainian regime falls or is forced out from the capital. At the very least don't bet on that. Prepare for the worst, because no doubt the Russian military leadership is. There is little sign so far of some sort of diplomatic solution being on the table - and that means that everyone is going to raise the stakes further.
Russia's best bet at the moment is as I mentioned, Surovikin launching an offensive towards Kiev, or whatever his plan is, and by so doing forcing the collapse of Ukrainian lines in the south in the manner that was earlier discussed. The Ukrainian-NATO forces may well decide to withdraw to Dnepropetrovsk or wherever their next set of defensive lines are, and attempt to shorten the front as they're able. NATO's full complement of officer corps has been busy no doubt going over every scenario. Almost certainly they also have new defenses built up further back for exactly this eventuality.
It's not just a simpleton matter of hurr durr bombing everything or Russia making predictable offensives at every opportunity, not giving up any ground to look good, etc... STAVKA has to actually outsmart the enemy and use its own resources more wisely. NATO has so far not been outsmarted in anything. They've predicted and countered everything Russia has tried. But they've also played right into Russia's hands by treating Ukrainian manpower as absolutely expendable and wasting tens of thousands of them in recent offensives that have achieved nothing, in the hopes of somehow shaking Russian morale or its mobilization effort. In this context, doomerists and others who think they know better than career officers are stepping into the role of allies of NATO. Nevertheless, NATO has thus far failed entirely in its latest endeavor, and wasted a huge amount of reserves in the attempt. This should be viewed as very much a Russian victory, albeit as much due to the enemy's miscalculations as it was due to the Russian strategy of controlled retreats and small amounts of highly mobile garrison forces.
More NATO miscalculations will shorten the war further. The most important thing is for Russia not to miscalculate anything, and end up in a trap of some kind. I can definitely understand Russian conservatism in the war from this angle.
Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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