Russian special military operation in Ukraine #31

zorobabel wrote:

lancelot wrote:Body count is kind of pointless as long as the other side keeps sending more bodies. US had to learn that lesson in Vietnam.

I hope that Russia makes a major offensive once the draftees show up in numbers and the ground has solidified. Otherwise we will just see Ukraine continue to do long range rocket attacks and artillery attacks along the entire front of the line of contact like they did to Donbass for eight frickin' years.

Once the cities are emptied out due to the lack of electricity with those kinds of numbers Russia will have more than enough bodies to do a proper full scale invasion I think.

Indeed. The US killed half a million Viet Cong. 8-to-1 kill ratio. Still lost the war.

What matters is not the preservation of manpower but strategic victories.

Lapain wrote:Vietnam had the demographics that went with it, Ukrying...am not so sure.

ahmedfire wrote:Did anyone knows how much the area of Kherson on the west bank ? AFAIK the Russians retreated only from the right bank but still kherson oblast is bigger than that .

Ned86 wrote:...

Opponent with no energy to supply its industry and its people can not win the war! (As simple as that)

...

mr_hd wrote:
Not really true, for war to go on, you do not need electricity or water on the scale like in peacetime (see Afghanistan or war in Syria for example). Weapons plants that are strategic will have supplies from smaller generators that are running on oil and water from local wells. Some of them will be put underground or on secret locations dispersed - to make it basically impossible to shut it down. Ukraine is aware of Russian reach from the first day and is doing everything to survive that on strategic level in order to gain time and get stronger.

mr_hd wrote:

What Russia did so far was to make mass disruption on civilian population. Ukrainian army is reasonably well supplied, and nothing changes on that area - there is very little impact from military perspective for example from those UAVs and long-range missile attacks.

Sujoy wrote:Iranian drones especially the ones being used in Ukraine do not have anti jamming capabilities. Yet, IRIS-T failed to shoot down most of them.
That being said some Iranian drones are capable of firing air to air missiles and assuming they were used they could have intercepted the IRIS-T in flight.
Either way the kill ratio for the IRIS-T remains low.

flamming_python wrote:
So get a clue.

ALAMO wrote:So let me summarize.
Russkie announced an official withdrawal from the western side of the Dnepr, due to problematic resupply routes harmed by an emergency water drop at Kachovka dam. Which was made due to fear of a dam breach, and we know that for a month at least.
Earlier, they have evacuated anyone who wanted to, 118 000 people.
Manpower released thanks to much better strategic defensive positions will be relocated to the other parts of a frontline, "where they are much more needed now".
Ukrs are not taking that for granted, afraid of being a bait.
They are yapping in shitstream od the Russkie psy-ops.

And that was enough for our doom team to announce Russkie's capitulation.

Not bad! Good stuff you have there! Ever considered to take half a dose?    

By the way, 238 000 additional troops heading to the frontline in the next week or two. Yup, the Ukr pabieda is inevitable        

flamming_python wrote:

That's all obvious, but it won't decide the war for them.
I remember Podolyaka about a month into the war, already citated some info that the Russian side expects 400-500k Ukrainian military losses by the end of the war. In other words the Russians had already figured out it was going to be a long war after the initial op towards Kiev failed.

This war will be won like the American Civil War was won if it comes down to it, Mercouris brought up the comparison in a video recently.

This isn't some Vietnam or Iraq or whatever for Russia, all such comparisons are false. There won't be any 'withdrawal' of Russia because that's not possible in the first place

For all the Ukrainian's unwillingness to acquiesce to Russian terms, never mind give up more territory or sovereignty to Russia - for Russians giving up the Donbass and the Crimea is not an option either, nor for the people living in these regions to return to the Ukraine. Everyone understands that the Ukraine is being prepped for a forever war to challenge these territories or inflict damage there, even if they'll no longer have the capacity to launch an invasion of them. And it was so before this war as well, else the Ukraine would have followed the Minsk agreements.

You say that Russia will have to sit down at the table and negotiate. But it already did so in April - it wasn't Russia that withdrew from the negotiations. And it's saying that it's willing to do so now, while Zelensky re-iterated that there will be no negotiations until all Russian forces leave the Ukraine. Even if Russian forces left Kherson, they'd still be in the Donbass and Crimea and they're not going anywhere from there.
In all actuality it will be the Ukrainians that will have to sit at the table and negotiate, for it is they that are currently refusing to do so. But between then and now there's going to be an awful lot of deaths and destruction, overwhelmingly on their side - and all for nothing. So get a clue.

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
So get a clue.

He won't
Anyway, I agree with all you have said.
And that is why I consider a strategy of bleeding the Ukrs white as very effective in a long term.
It is clear now, that Russia put a point on the Ukrainian statehood or economical condition after the war.
For several months, they did care about that, while at the beginning of the war, they cared about that more than the Ukrs themselves - which I find hilarious actually.
Now it is gone.
The strategy is to bleed them and cause a mass human migration that will strip the Ukraine of manpower. Fully. After the winter, Ukropistan will be left with not more than 20 mln people, we can bet on that. That will make them an equivalent of Romania, only without any existing economy. It will be a country of old people and women. That is a long term strategy, and it work

mr_hd wrote:Contrary what most people here wish - Ukraine army shows that is not rushing but carefully probing situation on the ground and acting on its own plans. Officially only two settlements were taken yesterday Kalynivske and Snihurivka in Kherson region, both actually far away from the city and not strategic in any way.

They are aware that if Russians wants to really defend city - Ukrainian forces will have to make quite a big loss.  It is universal rule that side that is doing offensive have to count on bigger losses.  

For myself it is clear that Russian adventure in Ukraine is not going well. Putin did bluff in many things - but he pushed Ukraine to the wall and for them there is no other option but to really fight with all what they have - and is working.

For Russia there will be more troubles coming. Just remember that 1/3 of Ukrainian population is displaced. That damage on infrastrucutre all over the country is immense - in hundreds of billions of US dollars. That many cities are without electricity and water - and winter is approaching.

But they are proud people - they will show 0 understanding for Russian interests in their own land and Russia now has serious, formidable, unified, opponent that has very clear goal and focus. With that opponent sooner or later Russia will have to sit on the table and negotiate. Good luck in that...

Ispan wrote:I have been away for a short holiday at Belgrad, Serbia, to take grandmother from Russia to live with us before new sanctions are imposed blocking visas for people with Russian passports from Crimea and the liberated territories.

I was taken aback by the news of the retreat from Kherson, but for all it's worth, here's my assesment

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/11/09/sobre-la-retirada-de-kherson/

crod wrote:As pics and clips from different TG channels begin to supposedly show Russian equipment abandoned, can someone please explain to me the reasoning for leaving it intact? Why can they not throw a couple of grenades in as the walk away.
Whatever the reasons for this Kherson withdrawal: good, bad or indifferent (I am not commenting on because I don’t know) why donate equipment to them, I simply do not understand why this is allowed.