Russian special military operation in Ukraine #31

its honestly sad that even ukrainians have to cheer up the Russian doomers here about kherson.



Video of ukrainians finding out Russia's plan.

zorobabel wrote:

lancelot wrote:Body count is kind of pointless as long as the other side keeps sending more bodies. US had to learn that lesson in Vietnam.

I hope that Russia makes a major offensive once the draftees show up in numbers and the ground has solidified. Otherwise we will just see Ukraine continue to do long range rocket attacks and artillery attacks along the entire front of the line of contact like they did to Donbass for eight frickin' years.

Once the cities are emptied out due to the lack of electricity with those kinds of numbers Russia will have more than enough bodies to do a proper full scale invasion I think.

Indeed. The US killed half a million Viet Cong. 8-to-1 kill ratio. Still lost the war.

What matters is not the preservation of manpower but strategic victories.

Vietnam had the demographics that went with it, Ukrying...am not so sure.

Did anyone knows how much the area of Kherson on the west bank ? AFAIK the Russians retreated only from the right bank but still kherson oblast is bigger than that .

Lapain wrote:Vietnam had the demographics that went with it, Ukrying...am not so sure.

I am hoping this a ruse.

Ukraine still has about 10 million men it can draft to fight. Population is down to 35 million, but fighting age men were not allowed to leave. Smart.

Dam destruction is a large threat to troops on the west side. Dam is already damaged from Ukraine attacks. Pulling back to easier to defend ground makes sense, especially if the terrain can stil be covered by artillery/missiles/drones to defend it and only approaches are on roads. Makes a good ambush.

Could letting Ukraine mass all those troops and equipment there and then russia pulling back just be manoeuvre warfare to shape the battlefield for next operations?

Without electric trains how can Ukraine meaningfully redeploy all the manpower ans equipment they have massed in the south to counter russia who can use rail to redeploy troops at will

ahmedfire wrote:Did anyone knows how much the area of Kherson on the west bank ? AFAIK the Russians retreated only from the right bank but still kherson oblast is bigger than that .

They are only evacuating the West side of the river, but that lets the Ukrainians get close enough to shell Crimea.

The speculation is that the Russians are doing this to buy time for the ground to freeze before they start a push.
Estimate late December unless the frosts come sooner.

So let me summarize.
Russkie announced an official withdrawal from the western side of the Dnepr, due to problematic resupply routes harmed by an emergency water drop at Kachovka dam. Which was made due to fear of a dam breach, and we know that for a month at least.
Earlier, they have evacuated anyone who wanted to, 118 000 people.
Manpower released thanks to much better strategic defensive positions will be relocated to the other parts of a frontline, "where they are much more needed now".
Ukrs are not taking that for granted, afraid of being a bait.
They are yapping in shitstream od the Russkie psy-ops.

And that was enough for our doom team to announce Russkie's capitulation.

Not bad! Good stuff you have there! Ever considered to take half a dose?

By the way, 238 000 additional troops heading to the frontline in the next week or two. Yup, the Ukr pabieda is inevitable

Iranian drones especially the ones being used in Ukraine do not have anti jamming capabilities. Yet, IRIS-T failed to shoot down most of them.

That being said some Iranian drones are capable of firing air to air missiles and assuming they were used they could have intercepted the IRIS-T in flight.

Either way the kill ratio for the IRIS-T remains low.

Contrary what most people here wish - Ukraine army shows that is not rushing but carefully probing situation on the ground and acting on its own plans. Officially only two settlements were taken yesterday Kalynivske and Snihurivka in Kherson region, both actually far away from the city and not strategic in any way.

They are aware that if Russians wants to really defend city - Ukrainian forces will have to make quite a big loss.  It is universal rule that side that is doing offensive have to count on bigger losses.  

For myself it is clear that Russian adventure in Ukraine is not going well. Putin did bluff in many things - but he pushed Ukraine to the wall and for them there is no other option but to really fight with all what they have - and is working.

For Russia there will be more troubles coming. Just remember that 1/3 of Ukrainian population is displaced. That damage on infrastrucutre all over the country is immense - in hundreds of billions of US dollars. That many cities are without electricity and water - and winter is approaching.

But they are proud people - they will show 0 understanding for Russian interests in their own land and Russia now has serious, formidable, unified, opponent that has very clear goal and focus. With that opponent sooner or later Russia will have to sit on the table and negotiate. Good luck in that...

Just one fact which most people forget when talking about Russian defeat and Ukraine victory.
Fact is that Russia is actively destroying Ukrainian energy infrastructure with rolling blackouts already happening in mayor cities like Kiev and Kharkov.

Opponent with no energy to supply its industry and its people can not win the war! (As simple as that)

People comparing Vietnam in the 60's to the 21st century Ukraine have no clue how life looks like in eastern Europe during winter months. For 3 months you will have temperature bellow zero constantly and up to -20 degrees during the night.
Keep in mind that people in Ukrainian cities live mostly in high storey buildings (apartment blocks) where absence of electricity means that you are literally disabled.  
No elevator, no central heating, possibly no water supply and etc.

Situation in Russia is pretty much the same like before SMO. Yes economy will shrink for 3-4%, but rubble is stronger and country is busy transiting its economy towards east.
There is no rolling blackouts, issues with supplies and no deep strikes on its territory.  

In Vietnam most of the population were living in rural areas and didn't actually care about electricity or anything high tech. They were producing its food in the field all year round and were not depend on energy at all almost. That was the reason could sustain long term war with USA and huge losses.

Ned86 wrote:...

Opponent with no energy to supply its industry and its people can not win the war! (As simple as that)

...

Not really true, for war to go on, you do not need electricity or water on the scale like in peacetime (see Afghanistan or war in Syria for example). Weapons plants that are strategic will have supplies from smaller generators that are running on oil and water from local wells. Some of them will be put underground or on secret locations dispersed - to make it basically impossible to shut it down. Ukraine is aware of Russian reach from the first day and is doing everything to survive that on strategic level in order to gain time and get stronger.

What Russia did so far was to make mass disruption on civilian population. Ukrainian army is reasonably well supplied, and nothing changes on that area - there is very little impact from military perspective for example from those UAVs and long-range missile attacks.

mr_hd wrote:
Not really true, for war to go on, you do not need electricity or water on the scale like in peacetime (see Afghanistan or war in Syria for example). Weapons plants that are strategic will have supplies from smaller generators that are running on oil and water from local wells. Some of them will be put underground or on secret locations dispersed - to make it basically impossible to shut it down. Ukraine is aware of Russian reach from the first day and is doing everything to survive that on strategic level in order to gain time and get stronger.

But Syria and Afghanistan is not the same like Ukraine. Yes people are people everywhere but climate in Syria and Ukraine is not the same.
Unfortunately you have yo target civilian population as well because civilians are the ones which can put the pressure on political leadership and they can impact total morale of the army as well.
Same happened in Yugoslavia during 1999 campaign. Until NATO didn't start bombing civilian infrastructure morale of the army and the nation was high.

mr_hd wrote:

What Russia did so far was to make mass disruption on civilian population. Ukrainian army is reasonably well supplied, and nothing changes on that area - there is very little impact from military perspective for example from those UAVs and long-range missile attacks.

We can see daily videos of Ukrainian army being destroyed by missile strikes, drones and Ka-52. Not to mention all those things we don't see which are being destroyed by artillery or airstrikes.
Pay attention on Ukrainian army latest video. Mostly it is infantry on pickup trucks.

mr_hd wrote:Contrary what most people here wish - Ukraine army shows that is not rushing but carefully probing situation on the ground and acting on its own plans. Officially only two settlements were taken yesterday Kalynivske and Snihurivka in Kherson region, both actually far away from the city and not strategic in any way.

They are aware that if Russians wants to really defend city - Ukrainian forces will have to make quite a big loss.  It is universal rule that side that is doing offensive have to count on bigger losses.  

For myself it is clear that Russian adventure in Ukraine is not going well. Putin did bluff in many things - but he pushed Ukraine to the wall and for them there is no other option but to really fight with all what they have - and is working.

For Russia there will be more troubles coming. Just remember that 1/3 of Ukrainian population is displaced. That damage on infrastrucutre all over the country is immense - in hundreds of billions of US dollars. That many cities are without electricity and water - and winter is approaching.

But they are proud people - they will show 0 understanding for Russian interests in their own land and Russia now has serious, formidable, unified, opponent that has very clear goal and focus. With that opponent sooner or later Russia will have to sit on the table and negotiate. Good luck in that...

That's all obvious, but it won't decide the war for them.
I remember Podolyaka about a month into the war, already citated some info that the Russian side expects 400-500k Ukrainian military losses by the end of the war. In other words the Russians had already figured out it was going to be a long war after the initial op towards Kiev failed.

This war will be won like the American Civil War was won if it comes down to it, Mercouris brought up the comparison in a video recently.

This isn't some Vietnam or Iraq or whatever for Russia, all such comparisons are false. There won't be any 'withdrawal' of Russia because that's not possible in the first place

For all the Ukrainian's unwillingness to acquiesce to Russian terms, never mind give up more territory or sovereignty to Russia - for Russians giving up the Donbass and the Crimea is not an option either, nor for the people living in these regions to return to the Ukraine. Everyone understands that the Ukraine is being prepped for a forever war to challenge these territories or inflict damage there, even if they'll no longer have the capacity to launch an invasion of them. And it was so before this war as well, else the Ukraine would have followed the Minsk agreements.

You say that Russia will have to sit down at the table and negotiate. But it already did so in April - it wasn't Russia that withdrew from the negotiations. And it's saying that it's willing to do so now, while Zelensky re-iterated that there will be no negotiations until all Russian forces leave the Ukraine. Even if Russian forces left Kherson, they'd still be in the Donbass and Crimea and they're not going anywhere from there.
In all actuality it will be the Ukrainians that will have to sit at the table and negotiate, for it is they that are currently refusing to do so. But between then and now there's going to be an awful lot of deaths and destruction, overwhelmingly on their side - and all for nothing. So get a clue.

Sujoy wrote:Iranian drones especially the ones being used in Ukraine do not have anti jamming capabilities. Yet, IRIS-T failed to shoot down most of them.
That being said some Iranian drones are capable of firing air to air missiles and assuming they were used they could have intercepted the IRIS-T in flight.
Either way the kill ratio for the IRIS-T remains low.

Iris is TI homing missile with the same/similar technology as Python 5. It is very difficult to jam, as that would require a quite powerful dazzler. Drone lacks both space and power source for that, while flares are not an option either because of a lack of situational awareness on the route.
And considering the price tag, it is Geran intercepting IRIS not the opposite

flamming_python wrote:
So get a clue.

He won't
Anyway, I agree with all you have said.
And that is why I consider a strategy of bleeding the Ukrs white as very effective in a long term.
It is clear now, that Russia put a point on the Ukrainian statehood or economical condition after the war.
For several months, they did care about that, while at the beginning of the war, they cared about that more than the Ukrs themselves - which I find hilarious actually.
Now it is gone.
The strategy is to bleed them and cause a mass human migration that will strip the Ukraine of manpower. Fully. After the winter, Ukropistan will be left with not more than 20 mln people, we can bet on that. That will make them an equivalent of Romania, only without any existing economy. It will be a country of old people and women. That is a long term strategy, and it works.

ALAMO wrote:So let me summarize.
Russkie announced an official withdrawal from the western side of the Dnepr, due to problematic resupply routes harmed by an emergency water drop at Kachovka dam. Which was made due to fear of a dam breach, and we know that for a month at least.
Earlier, they have evacuated anyone who wanted to, 118 000 people.
Manpower released thanks to much better strategic defensive positions will be relocated to the other parts of a frontline, "where they are much more needed now".
Ukrs are not taking that for granted, afraid of being a bait.
They are yapping in shitstream od the Russkie psy-ops.

And that was enough for our doom team to announce Russkie's capitulation.

Not bad! Good stuff you have there! Ever considered to take half a dose?    

By the way, 238 000 additional troops heading to the frontline in the next week or two. Yup, the Ukr pabieda is inevitable        

Ukrainian troops attacking Kherson will also be transferred to the east now, not only Russian.

flamming_python wrote:

That's all obvious, but it won't decide the war for them.
I remember Podolyaka about a month into the war, already citated some info that the Russian side expects 400-500k Ukrainian military losses by the end of the war. In other words the Russians had already figured out it was going to be a long war after the initial op towards Kiev failed.

This war will be won like the American Civil War was won if it comes down to it, Mercouris brought up the comparison in a video recently.

This isn't some Vietnam or Iraq or whatever for Russia, all such comparisons are false. There won't be any 'withdrawal' of Russia because that's not possible in the first place

For all the Ukrainian's unwillingness to acquiesce to Russian terms, never mind give up more territory or sovereignty to Russia - for Russians giving up the Donbass and the Crimea is not an option either, nor for the people living in these regions to return to the Ukraine. Everyone understands that the Ukraine is being prepped for a forever war to challenge these territories or inflict damage there, even if they'll no longer have the capacity to launch an invasion of them. And it was so before this war as well, else the Ukraine would have followed the Minsk agreements.

You say that Russia will have to sit down at the table and negotiate. But it already did so in April - it wasn't Russia that withdrew from the negotiations. And it's saying that it's willing to do so now, while Zelensky re-iterated that there will be no negotiations until all Russian forces leave the Ukraine. Even if Russian forces left Kherson, they'd still be in the Donbass and Crimea and they're not going anywhere from there.
In all actuality it will be the Ukrainians that will have to sit at the table and negotiate, for it is they that are currently refusing to do so. But between then and now there's going to be an awful lot of deaths and destruction, overwhelmingly on their side - and all for nothing. So get a clue.

I read a while ago that the ideal conflict for Russia is a low intensity low cost conflict in Ukraine, being the ONLY nation in the world that can actually AFFORD such a scenario without its finances heading into oblivion. It has very low exposure to foreign market fluctuations, is self sufficient in all you can wish for and has China, Turkey and Iran for anything else necesitating foreign expertise and supplies.
Hence it was surprising to see the RF forces go full Blitzkrieg back in Feb.2022 considering a simple gradual escalation in the DNLR would have sufficed.

And yes it is a civil war more than anything else, and I have yet to see a conflict of that kind going around with sudden maneuvers and plenty of pomp.

I have been away for a short holiday at Belgrad, Serbia, to take grandmother from Russia to live with us before new sanctions are imposed blocking visas for people with Russian passports from Crimea and the liberated territories.

I was taken aback by the news of the retreat from Kherson, but for all it's worth, here's my assesment

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/11/09/sobre-la-retirada-de-kherson/

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
So get a clue.

He won't
Anyway, I agree with all you have said.
And that is why I consider a strategy of bleeding the Ukrs white as very effective in a long term.
It is clear now, that Russia put a point on the Ukrainian statehood or economical condition after the war.
For several months, they did care about that, while at the beginning of the war, they cared about that more than the Ukrs themselves - which I find hilarious actually.
Now it is gone.
The strategy is to bleed them and cause a mass human migration that will strip the Ukraine of manpower. Fully. After the winter, Ukropistan will be left with not more than 20 mln people, we can bet on that. That will make them an equivalent of Romania, only without any existing economy. It will be a country of old people and women. That is a long term strategy, and it work

In this case, especially with the attack to critical infrastructure as electricity and water distribution, we can expect that many more millions of Ukrainians (especially the more western oriented) will leave their country in this coming winter. 

If at the end of the war Russia will have recovered all of Novorossia and Malorossia (as part of the russian federation) and will have made a puppet state in the north west, what would be the status of the former Ukrainian citizen that left their former state in order to go to NATO countries? Will they be considered stateless people?

Will they have officially any saying or legitimate claims to the properties and political alignment of the new north western Ukrainian state?

Because if not it is a good opportunity for Russia, as they do not even need to relocate people or do ethnic cleansing.

They can just allow only the Ukrainians that are temporarily displaced in Russia or in friendly countries and that are not hostile to Russia to come back to their homes.

The loss of properties for the western Ukrainians could be also seen as war reparation for the mess they did to Donbass.

mr_hd wrote:Contrary what most people here wish - Ukraine army shows that is not rushing but carefully probing situation on the ground and acting on its own plans. Officially only two settlements were taken yesterday Kalynivske and Snihurivka in Kherson region, both actually far away from the city and not strategic in any way.

They are aware that if Russians wants to really defend city - Ukrainian forces will have to make quite a big loss.  It is universal rule that side that is doing offensive have to count on bigger losses.  

For myself it is clear that Russian adventure in Ukraine is not going well. Putin did bluff in many things - but he pushed Ukraine to the wall and for them there is no other option but to really fight with all what they have - and is working.

For Russia there will be more troubles coming. Just remember that 1/3 of Ukrainian population is displaced. That damage on infrastrucutre all over the country is immense - in hundreds of billions of US dollars. That many cities are without electricity and water - and winter is approaching.

But they are proud people - they will show 0 understanding for Russian interests in their own land and Russia now has serious, formidable, unified, opponent that has very clear goal and focus. With that opponent sooner or later Russia will have to sit on the table and negotiate. Good luck in that...

We got a ukronazi supporter here. Putting your dumbass on my block list. Idiot.

As pics and clips from different TG channels begin to supposedly show Russian equipment abandoned, can someone please explain to me the reasoning for leaving it intact? Why can they not throw a couple of grenades in as the walk away.
Whatever the reasons for this Kherson withdrawal: good, bad or indifferent (I am not commenting on because I don’t know) why donate equipment to them, I simply do not understand why this is allowed.

Ispan wrote:I have been away for a short holiday at Belgrad, Serbia, to take grandmother from Russia to live with us before new sanctions are imposed blocking visas for people with Russian passports from Crimea and the liberated territories.

I was taken aback by the news of the retreat from Kherson, but for all it's worth, here's my assesment

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/11/09/sobre-la-retirada-de-kherson/

Typical 5th columnist. There is no real reason for anyone to leave Russia now...neither economical nor political.
Regarding visa issues, family visas will always be available because it is basic human right.

Personally I know many hipsters which left russia "forever" and were publishing that everyday on their social media, however 90% of them are back. Literally, story goes like this: as soon as they spend their money they come back and their social media accounts are quiet.
10% of those who managed to rent their apartments are now "living" in Turkey or UAE and spending their Russian money. Again I don't know what are they trying to prove and to whom....

crod wrote:As pics and clips from different TG channels begin to supposedly show Russian equipment abandoned, can someone please explain to me the reasoning for leaving it intact? Why can they not throw a couple of grenades in as the walk away.
Whatever the reasons for this Kherson withdrawal: good, bad or indifferent (I am not commenting on because I don’t know) why donate equipment to them, I simply do not understand why this is allowed.

How many russian vehicles in working condition have been abandoned in kherson so far?

Sorry if repost but Larry made good observation...

Observing some of the panicked reactions to Russia’s decision to redeploy its forces from the west bank of the Dnieper–abandoning Kherson City–to the east bank, I finally realized how many people around the world are judging the war in Ukraine like an episode from the hit show, GOT TALENT. GOT TALENT is a global phenomena and has been produced in more than 100 countries, including Ukraine.

https://sonar21.com/ukraine-is-not-an-episode-of-ukraines-got-talent/