Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34

Patriot is worse than useless. Into the trash it goes.

The one good thing I like about Russia is their restraint. They know their place. There have been attack on Russian military bases and infrastructure INSIDE Russia. With NATO supplied Intel and weapons and they have not retaliated.

When Saudis and Pakistanis destroyed the World Trade Centre and also seriously damaged the Pentagon building... the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan... they got Osama Bin Laden ten years ago... he was in Pakistan.

It seems instant retaliation serves a goal... the US MIC made trillions on those conflicts, but they didn't really make the US much safer really... showy and expensive, but largely ineffective.

Russia attacking HATO would start WWIII and that would damage the Russian economy.

Current western sanctions are forcing Russian companies to stop selling to the rest of the world through western companies via western ports and shipping companies using western insurance agencies... the increase in energy prices and the Russians putting extra taxes on energy exports because they are making so much money means the Russians are making billions off this situation... the longer it continues the better off they will be because they will make more of the money their products and resource sales generate around the world...

I don't believe that such ongoing topics like Saloreich and phoney Minsk agreements are touched by Merkel and alike out of the blue. It hints more to a subtle initialization of changing politics. This isn't going to last forever in favor of Saloreich nor their backers and they realized that quite some time ago. Now they need to change the rhetoric to safe face. Maybe they will come up with "we were fooled" by these agreements or some other nonsense.

Merkel was thought of with great respect in the west, her admission of this duplicity is giving her memory a real hit, this will really damage her legasy... so we have to ask why... and I suspect the EU if not the US are realising that continuing down the road of demonising Russia can only lead to WWIII in which everyone loses... if they are looking for a way to pull back from that by recognising that Russia did have good reason to do what it did and that the west was partially to blame even if they will claim it was for the right reasons, then compromises will be more possible and this conflict could end and they hope their energy prices will go back to what they were which will solve a lot of their problems.

Their real problem is that they have caused some real damage and lots of people died and they were total about this, and with this admission how can Russia ever trust them again... why would they?

So the solution for Russia is to take all of the Ukraine and for HATO and the EU and US to not be part of the process of rebuilding the country... let the pro west Ukrainians flee to the EU and not come back, and Russia can sort things out on their own without western interference.

If the west wants to continue an insurgency the locals will get sick of that BS pretty quick, especially if regions where the terrorists can roam free and get local support will be cordoned off and left to fend for themselves... no rebuilding for them.

The Mig-29s are going to replaced with crappy used F-16/18s. These eastern European outposts of NATzO can't afford the F-35
wunderwaffen.

Nobody can afford the F-35, that is the point, but they will be pressured to buy them anyway... once it is clear that they are eye wateringly expensive to operate too, then they will look at used F-16s (even used F-18s are expensive), but that market will be thin too... Maybe Venezuela could sell them with US permission... or Egypt or Turkey...

Open sources say there were 3 version, A, P and S for nuclear, antiradar and antiship.

Open sources are just assuming the same versions as for the Kh-22M which is the much larger missile used for similar purposes on the Tu-22M3... the Tu-22M3 could carry three Kh-22M missiles at one time, but could carry 10 of the much smaller and more compact solid rocket powered Kh-15s.

There was no anti ship Kh-15, that was just western speculation. The only model Kh-15 was a nuclear armed short range attack missile used by strategic and theatre bombers to clear a path through air defences... interceptor aircraft and major SAM sites on the ground with this mach 5, 300-400km range solid rocket powered missile.

It was retired early because there was no conventionally armed model.

so patriot missiles are coming to Ukraine, Russia will have more and more failures there, war is lost basically.

A patriot battery that targeted an F-16 in the Gulf war was destroyed with a HARM easily enough... good chance to test themselves against such a system... their ELINT aircraft will locate them and they can send drones and missiles to destroy them easy enough... Patriot is not as mobile as Soviet SAMs.

War is closer to the end with the west getting this desperate... all they gave the Afghans in the 1980s were MANPADS and ATGMs... now they are handing out the family silverware and they are still losing.

Patriot is fine. But as with any other system the weaknesses begin to show when stuff gets real hot. It hasn't really performed all that well anywhere, to be frank, and AD always has to be competently layered anyway.

Patriot in itself is not the problem... the problem is that they don't have any smaller more numerous systems to place near it to defend it from attack so the first time is launches and reveals its position it will get hammered.

Positioning S-400 without TOR or Pantsir or S-350 would have the same problems... even though that is a much more capable system.

The only thing that sounds logical to me is when I look at it from a corrupt economical perspective. The MIC has its political lobbyists, all working to enable them to sell more to keep business going. Depleting stock is brilliant, and even better - the newer models that will have to be ordered to replenish the domestic arsenal are more expensive. Very lucrative.

In terms of AD, what Ukraine needs is tons of Pantsir and the like. Cheap, highly mobile and effective SHORAD with no strings attached, that is. But yeah...

So perhaps the plan is to expose how bad Patriot actually is to get funding for a new replacement... perhaps based on S-400 or its equivalent... their real problem is a lack of systems like TOR and Pantsir and now Pine and even Kornet in the 10km range HE model that would be excellent for anti drone use.

Ukrainian sources provide more detail on the sinking of the Russian cruiser RFS Moskva in April 2022

Took them this long to make these details up?

Sounds like consolidation... making sure the west can't be blamed, while claiming the success for themselves with still no evidence at all those missiles hit anything.

As I said at the time, this fire and then explosion sounds more like an S-300F launch failure than a hit from anti ship missiles.

This claim says their missiles fired at amphibious ships were shot down, but missiles fired at a cruiser got through they believe?

They lie and they lie.... so if they were successful against a cruiser, why did they stop using these effective weapons?

Why have they not used them since?

I am not sure how Patriot missiles would be effective in Ukraine, unless Kiev intends to deploy them near the frontlines. They could cause problems there but would be more vulnerable to attack. But in terms of defending against drone and missile swarms? Useless.

They will most likely put them around Kiev to try to protect the electricity grid while they try to fix it... with one or two systems venturing forward in the hope of getting some easy kills for propaganda purposes.

According to reports, Germany plans to deploy Patriots on Polish-Ukrainian border in order to create a more-protected air space over Western Ukraine. The plan is to engage on incoming Russian missiles over Western Ukraine, by firing air defence missiles from Polish territories.

They want to launch missiles from Poland at Russian missiles hitting targets in western ukraine then that is an act of war and article 5 is nullified because destroying Patriot batteries in Poland that are engaging Russian assets in the Ukraine is becoming party to the war.

“The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official”

Anti radiation missiles don't care about lines of a border on a map.

I took a few weeks break from the smo, just finished viewing an unhealthy amount of TG posts, and nothing has changed , so the latest is … whatever it was last time you checked.

What has changed is that a few weeks ago you doomsayers claimed the sky was falling because the Russians pulled back in a few places... claims the Orcs would be in Moscow by Christmas... or at least the Crimea... but it seems that the pull back was a good idea. In several places they are moving forward and are killing lots and lots of enemy forces with minimal losses of their own... they now seem to have enough troops to hold the ground they hold and move forward in places.

Go on and tell us how it was still the wrong thing to do and they should have pushed forward into enemy lines despite being outnumbered 20 to one because obviously the loss of thousands of Russian troops killed or captured is better than the humiliation of withdrawing to easier to defend positions while you rearm and regroup for when the ground gets hard...