Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34

@Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E
If Russia wanted to cut off the supply lines from Poland/Kiev to Eastern Ukraine they would've destroyed all the bridges that span the Dnieper river, after withdrawing troops from Kharkov and the west bank of Kherson I don't see Russia making big moves like this for any reason.

If nothing else, the route from Zhytomyr and Vinnitsya to Odessa/Transnistria would be horribly vulnerable to attack from Nazi forces.

Thing is how many combat personnel will russia field such a move, this isn't like the start Ukraine is far more prepared and again can easily deploy more forces to tie up the russians, the question becomes can Russia sustain two fronts well three their forces would be forced to defend from the left and right if they tried to move in from Belarus, I don't see this being the play just way to costly

The russians haven't done the pre-work steps yet if they intended this maneuver.

Troop rotation continues, Ukro style.

More on Hole's comment above

MCP "Borshchevik" is designed to detect and determine the location of Starlink terminals at a distance of up to 10 km in the 180-degree sector.
Direction finding and calculation of the location of Starlink subscriber equipment by biangulation algorithms with an accuracy of 60 m does not exceed 15 minutes per direction finding point.

The complex has the ability to be installed on a car chassis, which provides tactical use on the contact lines. The autonomous operation of the complex is provided by a compact power source or power system of the vehicle.
Elements of the complex can be painted with various types of camouflage, including the use of coatings with IR remission.

Processing of the received data on the location of Starlink terminals is carried out in a modern graphical interface created using the UI/UX methodology, with the ability to connect topographic maps of the area for intuitive orientation.

https://mkpborshchevik.ru/

Much of the following is extracted from this article which reads OK https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/patriot-missile-batteries-in-ukraine-would-be-top-targets-for-russia

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@Navsteva
·
1h
"The Patriot is a mainly static system that takes up a lot of space, requires a lot of troops to operate and has a radar with strong emissions that can be detected and geolocated by Russian signals intelligence systems."

“One Patriot battery with a full complement of launchers (six or more) requires 50 to 60 soldiers to emplace and then 25 to 30 soldiers to operate and maintain,” David Shank, a retired Army colonel and former commandant of the Army Air Defense Artillery School...

A typical Patriot battery includes an AN/MPQ-53 or more capable AN/MPQ-65 phased array radar, which would be the most likely target of a Russian strike, Shank said.

“A Patriot battery uses approximately a square kilometer of land space so it’s susceptible to Russian ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance]. The radar when radiating emits a large signal and will ultimately be seen by Russian signal intelligence capabilities.”

“Anti-radiation missiles targeting the Patriot radar,” would likely be the main vector of attack. “Destroy the Patriot radar, and the system is useless.”

"Beyond SIGINT detection, given the large footprint of a Patriot battery, it would be detectable by Russian satellites as well as airborne manned and unmanned reconnaissance platforms. Other intelligence sources, including those on the ground, could also easily spot it."

Russian fighters, like the Su-35S Flanker, can be equipped with Kh-31P long-range anti-radiation missiles which are themselves equipped with modular, interchangeable passive radar seekers, one of which was designed to specifically target the Patriot system. They have a range of 68 miles. The updated, Kh-31PD/PM, with an extended range of 160 miles, has a broadband seeker that allows it to target a wide range of anti-aircraft radars at once, which would come in handy for the Russian Air Force given the scope of additional air defense systems that could be arrayed around any Patriot battery installed in Ukraine.

Tom
@tom_username_
·
3h
The Zaluzhny interview in The Economist is remarkably gloomy, and even pessimistic at times.

Even if he's exaggerating Ukraine's problems, the fact he needs to plead like this says there are indeed problems.

I'll give some examples:

He refutes the claim that the mobilised Russian soldiers are unwilling to fight, and says it's a problem that Ukraine needs to take very seriously.

When he told the head of the British army about the number of shells he needs, the response was: "We will lose Europe. We will have nothing to live on if you fire that many shells."

When talking about the energy situation, he said this could result in disaster not just for civilian life, but for the army too. He said the air defence being provided is not enough.

He says "holding the current line (in Donbass)" is of primary importance, i.e. worth the losses.

He says it will be 10-15 times more difficult to return the territories if they are given up, so the current difficulties must be endured to the bitter end.

He says Russia only prepared for a short war, but it is now preparing for a long war, and this is a problem.

He believes the mobilised will be used for a large offensive, and even though they're low quality and poorly equipped (that's his cliched opinion btw, not mine), it is a huge danger to Ukraine & he hints at the possibility of Ukraine's defeat (I've never seen him do that before).

Why is Poland sending so many troops to Ukraine despite constant losses?
Former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter has weighed in on why Poland is sending so many soldiers to fight for Ukraine despite huge losses.

@Dr.Snufflebug

So ~86,000 public soldier obituaries, plus ~35,000 "MIA" (if this document is legit)... I said before that the "MIA" number was unknown but now we just might have gotten it.

Together, that makes over 120,000 UA military dead. Now, on top of that you have all those whose passing wasn't given an eulogy in the Ukrainian press. One can only speculate, but all-in-all some 150,000 KIA does not seem implausible.

86k only?
probably not included terodefense and mercenarues or os only KIA, but 20-25.000 dead because the injuries after the battlefield

the online obituary count (which is not all those buried in Zelensky-controlled territory), is over 107k the week before
In fact, some graphics with more than 100k were posted here a few weeks ago



150k deads is even a conservative number

New post  ucmvulcan Today at 3:48 pm
So

Blasphemy day is Sunday, disrupting the Mass to intimidate the faithful for your nazi bullcrap is the epitome of blasphemy
bombing day is Monday
Dorito day is Tuesday
Wednesday is Boob augmentation day
Thursday is garbage day

What are Friday and Saturday?

So who has been posting the photos as I have obviously been missing out

@Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E
If Russia wanted to cut off the supply lines from Poland/Kiev to Eastern Ukraine they would've destroyed all the bridges that span the Dnieper river, after withdrawing troops from Kharkov and the west bank of Kherson I don't see Russia making big moves like this for any reason.

More logic move would be 2 large pincers one from south and one from north cutting Ukr along Dnieper river.

JohninMK wrote:The Zaluzhny interview in The Economist is remarkably gloomy, and even pessimistic at times.
...
He says "holding the current line (in Donbass)" is of primary importance, i.e. worth the losses.
...
He says Russia only prepared for a short war, but it is now preparing for a long war, and this is a problem.

He believes the mobilised will be used for a large offensive, and even though they're low quality and poorly equipped (that's his cliched opinion btw, not mine), it is a huge danger to Ukraine & he hints at the possibility of Ukraine's defeat (I've never seen him do that before).

I think he is correct in that if Ukraine are forced to withdraw from the line of contact in Donbass then their formations would collapse and next you would have defenses around urban conurbations in major cities in the Ukrainian core where things would be much harder for them. The major cities in Ukraine are pretty much far apart and it would be much harder to have a proper defense in them I think.

I think that he is wrong in that Russia has been preparing for this war since at least 2014 if not 2007. They vastly increased the amount of professional front line troops and equipment from the skeleton army they had in the early 2000s. Most of their aircraft were also replaced with new ones. To the extent where their army was not made larger and the invasion even bigger, I think, it was to keep NATO and Ukraine second guessing their intent until the last minute.

I do not think Russia was necessarily planning for a short war but it was tasked as a limited war I think. The objective was not the annexation of Ukraine lock stock and barrel for example. But it may end up as that in the long run. I agree with John Mearsheimer that Russia will basically turn Ukraine into ruins in order to make them into an example of what will happen if you follow the US's imperialist ambitions and harm Russian interests in their periphery.

Keep this in mind when they start talking about the Abrams

Richard Schmitt
9 November 2022 10:09
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has been savagely berated on Twitter and Facebook for weeks for his no to the tank delivery, and the entire government in Berlin has been slated for it by the pro-war propaganda of the Bild newspaper: The Ukrainian government repeatedly demanded that Germany should now also hand over modern Leopard 2 main battle tanks to the Ukrainian armed forces for their so far only partially successful counter-offensives - this would "save lives and shorten the war".

"The Germans already know why they are not doing exactly that," a tank expert now reveals the real reasons why this Leopard delivery to Ukraine will "certainly not" take place. And these are the reasons, says the army veteran, who is one of the best-informed tank specialists: "Firstly, the Leopard 2 is too heavy for deployment in Ukraine. The battle tank weighs at least 55 tonnes, in some versions even 62 tonnes. However, all bridges, roads and railways in the combat zone are designed for loads of slightly more than 40 tonnes - just enough to be used by Russian main battle tanks of the type T-72 with 44.5 tonnes or T-90A with 46.5 tonnes. The Leopard 2 would have almost 17,500 kilos too much."

17,500 kilos lighter than the Leopard 2: the Russian T-72 in action

Huge dimensions: the German Leopard 2 main battle tank

German tanks would get stuck in winter
But the Leopard 2's 62,000 kilos would not only be a massive problem on the road and during rail transport, says the tank expert: "The Leopard 2 could only operate perfectly off-road in the absolute height of summer when the ground is completely dry. Now, in the rain, the narrow tracks would sink in immediately, the vehicles would get stuck."

And the situation will get even worse in the coming winter, he said: "The ground will soon freeze through to a depth of 40 centimetres - but the Leopard 2 would break through this layer of frost due to its mass, again getting stuck in the mud." However: the much lighter Russian T-72 also remains mobile on the frozen-through layer of earth due to its wider tracks. The Russian T-72 main battle tank frequently used in Ukraine

Ukraine would also need top-trained weapons electronics technicians

In addition to all these (for the crews life-threatening) difficulties of a Leopard 2 deployment in Ukraine, there is also a training problem: "A basic training as with the self-propelled howitzer 2000 can be accomplished in 6 weeks, but what do the tank soldiers do when the first red light comes on?", the insider says that it is absolutely necessary to send top trained German weapons electronics and weapons technicians to Ukraine. Their training, by the way, takes at least a year.

And there is another fact that supports the German decision not to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine: there are simply too few. Only in Spain would 122 Leopard 2Es currently be parked unused - but these are also the property of the German armed forces. And to produce enough new Leopards for the Ukrainian army would probably take longer than a ten-year war: it would take one year to build 15 new Leopard 2s for Qatar - 150 battle tanks for the government in Kiev would thus not be delivered completely until 2032 ...

Son against father - how Bukov proved in Ukraine

SVO became a real benefit of Soviet and Russian air defense. It suddenly turned out that even the forty-year-old Buk-M1 is still a significant opponent of modern aviation. Ukraine's air defenses are stuck in the 80s, but even this is enough to provide decent resistance to one of the most powerful air forces in the world. The most interesting thing is that even deliveries of relatively modern Western anti-aircraft systems did not affect the situation in the sky over Ukraine, which once again proves how serious the Buk-M1 weapon is.

What to say about the Buk-M3 complex, which is in the service of the Russian army. This is not even a deep modification, but simply a second-generation machine.

If the Buk-M1 can hit a target such as an aircraft at a distance of 35 km, and a cruise missile at 25 km, then the Buk-M3 is capable of destroying similar targets at a distance of up to 70 km.

The situation is similar with the speed of potential targets. If the "old" Buk yielded to the enemy flying at a speed of more than 800 m / s, then a modern modification can shoot down a missile moving at a speed of 3000 m / s. The number of simultaneously tracked targets also doubled to 36.

The Buk-M3 proved to be excellent during SVO – with its help, they shot down the acclaimed HIMARS missiles and destroyed Ukrainian planes.
But Buk's greatest contribution to the fighting was neutralizing the threat of dozens of Bayraktars in the Ukrainian skies. The drone, which has performed so well in recent local conflicts, could not realize even a tenth of its potential when faced with the modern air defense of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

Perhaps today, the Buk-M3 is the best medium-range air defense system in the world. This complex will provide reliable air defense of our army in the coming years.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/24964

Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 14 Dec 2022


#Kiev Region:

The RF Armed Forces have hit targets in the village of #Vishnevoye and the Shevchenkovsky district of Kiev with Geran-2 kamikaze drones.

#Russia's Border Areas:

Ukrainian militants shelled the village of #Zhuravlevka in #Belgorod region; no damage or casualties.

In the evening, air defence equipment went off in the town of #Klintsy in the #Bryansk region. Ammunition remnants fell on power lines and disrupted power supply in the village of #Ardon.

#Starobelsk Direction:

There are no significant changes on the frontline. Positional battles are taking place near #Kuzemovka and #Makeyevka, artillery duels continue.

#Soledar Direction (MAP):

In the #Bakhmut (#Artemovsk) area, fighting is going on in the east of the city in the area of Fedor Maksimenko Street and Pervomaysky Lane.
In #Opytnoye, units of the Wagner PMC are storming the fortified long-term positions of the AFU's 53rd Mechanized Brigade, which has established a strong fortification in the settlement.
Northeast of #Bakhmut, Russian forces are advancing towards #Podgorodnoye.
The AFU command concentrates its forces in Chasovy Yar and plans to counterattack in the vicinity of #Bakhmut.

In the #Soledar sector, the RF Armed Forces have taken a stronghold near #Soledar.

In the #Lysychansk sector, positional fighting is taking place near #Belogorovka.

#Donetsk Direction (MAP):

In the #Avdeyevka sector, Russian servicemen captured a group of Ukrainian militants while storming a stronghold near #Pervomayskoye.

Fierce fighting continues in the centre of #Maryinka. The RF Armed Forces were able to occupy the road to #Krasnogorovka, cutting the supply line to the settlement.

Artillery duels are taking place in the #Ugledar area. In the area of Bolshaya (Velikaya) Novosyolka, Russian servicemen have again gone over to defence (after a failed attack).

#Zaporozhye Direction:

Russian missile forces and artillery have carried out several strikes on AFU facilities in #Zaporozhye, #Gulyaypole and #Olgovskoye.

#Kherson Direction on Southern Front:

Artillery duels continue. The RF Armed Forces have been working on targets in #Kherson, hitting an administration building and storage facilities, while Ukrainian militants shelled a recreation base in #Lazurnoye.


https://t.me/sitreports/2100

Ukraine press gangs drunkards from the street

https://t.me/chub_detection/6276


https://t.me/chub_detection/6300


Now that NATO personnel are proven to operate in the ukraine, russia should cause an armed insurrection in montenegro and sign formal military alliances with north korea, cuba and venezuela, as well as arming communist guerillas with NLAWs and shmels in latin america. It should also directly threten azerbaijan with military action if it fires on russian peacekeepers or attacks armenia again.

Not Poland.


The ruling Ukrainian mafia in Poland.


http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html



Poland does not officially participate in this war in a direct way.

Why does Russia launch cruise missile in daytime?

I sure would like brother Messi to launch a few "cruise missiles" into the French goalkeeper's net...

The arms supply , including the possible patriot systems , to Ukraine , are not defensive : First , the extremists in Ukraine , have an ideology that is implicitly bound with expansionism . Second , the extremists are engaged against Russian populations , with the aim of ethnic cleansing . Third , the extremists in Kiev , rejected all reasonable attempts at resolving the conflict , through peaceful means . It remains and will remain an eternal shame on Europeans and Americans , to have supported a Nazi regime in Kiev , and it's aggressive war against Russia and Russian speakers . Their miscalculation , was their blind fate in their own military power , after they inflicted pain and misery and suffering on nations in the ME engaged in civil wars , and without proper armed forces to defend themselves . Afghanistan is different to Russia , sporting fashionable " National Geographic " explorer type Beards , will no longer be enough to defeat the enemy ! Russian troops are now storming the bunkers of the Nazis and clearing out in close fighting ! The Bridges on the Dnieper are still untouched .

What the hell is this? It's shaped like a Kh-35, but appears to fly extremely slowly in the video (unless the vid is slowed down).



Kh-58 is a possibility too. I think the vid is slowed down.

Anyway, Ukraine has already shot down 250% of the incoming missiles. Don't know why many important facilities seem to have been put out of action.

Kh 35 were already used for ground attack in Ukraine if I remember correctly.

This could also be product 305 missile launched from helicopters.