Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34
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franco wrote:NOTE: a fairly long read of the need to reevaluate and adapt the SMO
Rethinking the military special operation
There is no plan that the enemy would not try to spoil. The enemy's job is to look for our weak points and try to find an antidote to what we were best prepared for. Having started the military operation, we were finally 100% convinced that the United States needed Ukraine exclusively for the proxy war against Russia. Confirmed by their bitter experience.
In fact, the eight-year occupation of Ukraine by the United States has borne its bloody fruits. First, in the form of the largest civil war in Europe, and then the largest interstate military conflict of the 21st century. Now, on the eve of a large-scale Russian offensive in 2023, it's time to rethink the methods of conducting NMD in order to draw conclusions and bring our Victory closer.
How has the nature of the military operation changed?
FULL ARTICLE: https://topwar-ru.translate.goog/206955-pereosmyslenie-voennoj-specoperacii.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
Article makes some good points and I agree with some recommendations, but as one comment states:
Where do you respected experts come from? Too lazy to type so many letters? Previously, there was an excess of lawyers, later infectious disease specialists, now military analysts and patriots of the Motherland. Never before has a single decision of one person, not supported deeply and completely by his inner circle, ever has lead to victory.
The article repeats SeigSolovyov's insistence on finishing the war quickly, despite there being no crisis on the economic and geopolitical side of things.
Because Russia is taking losses while NATO, with its far greater resources anyway - isn't. And because as time goes on NATO will only provide more and more sophisticated weapons to the Ukraine, such as F-16s, Patriots, and so on.
But this is an amateur claim. In as far as Ukrainian manpower is the cannon fodder of NATO; it's currently taking losses at a ratio of over 1 to 10. The various NATO-supplied mercs aren't doing much better. Military age men with at least a minimum of motivation and physical fitness are a finite resource.
The equipment and hardware is not doing any better, Soviet-era stocks are running down. Yes NATO can then replace them with modern hardware, but that raises its own problems. That stuff is a lot more expensive. It's harder to maintain, especially in the field. It tends to have greater logistical requirements such as fuel. And the Ukrainians, whichever are still around by then, are not trained in their use. In fact training personnel on more modern equipment takes more time.
The author makes the point that a slowed down offensive lowers the casualties, but also the tempo of territorial gain, such that casualties aren't really lowered, but only stretched out over time. Except this ignores that with a more cautious and systematic approach, you can increase the enemy's losses over the same period also.
And in general there is a lot of doomerism
Fact is Russia has a good thing going in Bakhmut (the success of which the author completely ignores), and really in the wider war itself, despite all the screw-ups of the early days.
This is because it entered the war on its terms. Before the operation started, NATO was inside the Ukraine, and Russian forces were outside. By the time the operation had begun however, all NATO forces had oh so kindly left the Ukraine, at least officially, by Russia's request. While Russian forces moved in.
This means Russia is using its army, its airforce, its missiles, etc.. openly and to whatever extent they want. If NATO wants to involve itself, then it faces many more restrictions. It can't use its airpower, or its official forces, or its cruise missiles. It can only act through the Ukraine or pretend to act through the Ukraine.
As long as this situation keeps up things favour Russia. Massively so.
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Putin also has said there are definiciencies of the military which must be corrected including wide spread procurement of drones, and other modern equipment
Putin stated the nuclear arsenal is 91% armed with nuclear weapons
The SMO will continue and all goals will be achieved
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I understand the situation better is that why now Alamo you are trying to act like the shit I said months ago is something I don't get and you know better? gee buddy. I am actually proud you were able to get your head out of the ground to realize that much.
Now Russia could have easily won this war easier by deploying the right amount of men you know how?
1. Bomb the power grid to ash, to not allow Ukie troops to mobilize, fact is Ukie forces had more then enough time to gather their troops minus the detachments already in the Donbass area, and funnel hundreds of thousands of men tot he frontline for months without risk of attack.
This NEVER should have been allowed, but we know why it was Putin wanted to play nice so the military was told not to. There are dozens of examples of their hands being tied.
2. Bomb the staging points when they start gathering their mobilized forces wth Kalibers, they didn't do this.
3. Deploy the needed forces to have a large grouping of forces in multiple directions, attack with on grouping once the ukies move reserves to that area attack from another keep rotating your attacks, do not let them breath. With the power grid down and if the mass ukie mobilization was prevented as it should have been. With the grid down and it very hard for them to move forces, with multiple fronts to hold, you would have cracked through them much easier and been able to end the war much faster.
4. Everyone and their mother knew NATO was going to help Ukraine, trying to act like that came outta the blue is just frankly idiotic, no one can expect me to believe the russians went "NATO will not send them supplies no waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay" if you honestly thought that. Your just stupid straight up.
Again do I think Russia will lose? Naw no way, but have they made careless and silly mistakes that shouldn't have been made? hell yes, was the entire "SMO" hand cuffed from the very start and continued to be that way for months preventing the army from doing what needed to be done? hell yes.
Again this war could have ended much sooner if you think otherwise, I must ask, How does having your head up the Kremlins ass feel.
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A lot of Lancet videos (4-5 I guess) out over the last 2 days. If they can really ramp up production before the end of the winter, it could be decisive. These things can punish Ukrainian weapons on the frontlines.
I think the advantage will only last 6 months or so. No doubt the US is building something similar (better than Switchblades, though we don't know if the ATGM Switchblade is any good or not) and will begin providing them in mass, especially if they are short-range systems.
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Arkanghelsk wrote:Putin stated the nuclear arsenal is 91% armed with nuclear weapons
What does the remaining 9% of the nuclear arsenal consist of then? I mean, by definition the arsenal is 100% of itself.
Pretty sure he said 91% modern nukes. Still begs the question which nuclear munitions aren't modern? That remaining 9% that is.
RN series of tactical nuclear freefall bombs, perhaps? I think I have seen a Su-34 carrying the inert mockup in recent years, so they exist. Like the older U.S. B-61 models.
Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
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He propably meant 91% modern equipment.What does the remaining 9% of the nuclear arsenal consist of then? I mean, by definition the arsenal is 100% of itself.
Most NATO states got enough tank ammo for a few weeks of NATO-style low intensity combat. If they send some Leo2 or M1 they will be out of ammo after 10 days.Yes NATO can then replace them with modern hardware, but that raises its own problems.
Some screenshoots from the exhibition at the National Command Center today with Putin, Shoigu and Gerassimov:
The drone on the left looks similar to one of the small missiles developed for UCAV´s.
Huge wings of the big Lancet version
Taifun-VDV versions on the left, one as MLRS
Last edited by Hole on Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Sergey Shoigu says the nation’s military should amount to 1.5 million servicemen
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has announced the need to make a number of structural changes to the country’s armed forces in light of NATO’s attempts to bolster its presence on Russia’s border and expand its membership to Finland and Sweden.
During a Russian Defense Ministry meeting on Wednesday, Shoigu proposed a number of measures to strengthen the security of the Russian Federation, including creating a special grouping of troops on the country’s northwestern border and expanding Russia’s armed forces to amount to 1.5 million servicemen in total, with some 695,000 of them being contract soldiers.
Shoigu’s comments come as Helsinki and Stockholm have submitted bids to join NATO, citing a perceived threat from Russia in light of its ongoing military operation in Ukraine. Their accession to the US-led bloc is currently stalled by Türkiye and Hungary, but all other members have already welcomed their membership.
The minister also offered to “gradually” change the minimum draft age in Russia from 18 to 21 and raise the maximum age to 30, while also offering all draftees the opportunity to sign a contract with the army from the first day of service.
Shoigu went on to suggest creating a number of new military groupings, including five new artillery divisions, eight bomber aviation regiments, and one fighter regiment, as well as six army aviation brigades.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who also attended the meeting, approved the proposals for improving the country’s armed forces and instructed Shoigu to report back once these measures are deliberated with the ministerial board. Putin promised to address these proposals in detail later.
During his address to senior defense officials, Putin also emphasized the need to continue to modernize Russia’s nuclear arsenal, describing it as the key to guaranteeing the country’s sovereignty.
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Huge news, I wonder if su34 will make up bulk of new bomber regiments, the army aviation brigades means more helicopters coming online and pilots,
And then it's strange he only mentioned the addition of 1 fighter regiment , maybe it's just completion of the su57 regiment which already is half strength
and btw:
Dr. Snufflebug wrote:
What does the remaining 9% of the nuclear arsenal consist of then? I mean, by definition the arsenal is 100% of itself.
Pretty sure he said 91% modern nukes. Still begs the question which nuclear munitions aren't modern? That remaining 9% that is.
RN series of tactical nuclear freefall bombs, perhaps? I think I have seen a Su-34 carrying the inert mockup in recent years, so they exist. Like the older U.S. B-61 models.
I believe most of the arsenal is modernized for sure, including warheads and delivery systems
For sure he could be referring to tactical delivery systems like bombs, and also perhaps some of the older delivery systems themselves like R36 Voyevoda, to be replaced with Sarmat which is coming online by January apparently along with gorshkov with zircon and other weapons Putin mentioned today at the MOD consortium
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It seems Moscow and St. Petersburg will get their own military districts again.Shoigu went on to suggest creating a number of new military groupings
New bomber regiments is great news. Keep the older Su-24M in service for a few more years and replace them step by step with Su-34 and combat drones (Okhotnik).
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Shoigu proposed a number of measures to strengthen the security of the Russian Federation, including creating a special grouping of troops on the country’s northwestern border and expanding Russia’s armed forces to amount to 1.5 million servicemen in total, with some 695,000 of them being contract soldiers. Shoigu’s comments come as Helsinki and Stockholm have submitted bids to join NATO, citing a perceived threat from Russia in light of its ongoing military operation in Ukraine. Their accession to the US-led bloc is currently stalled by Türkiye and Hungary, but all other members have already welcomed their membership. The minister also offered to “gradually” change the minimum draft age in Russia from 18 to 21 and raise the maximum age to 30, while also offering all draftees the opportunity to sign a contract with the army from the first day of service. READ MORE: Russia will continue to modernize nuclear arsenal – Putin Shoigu went on to suggest creating a number of new military groupings, including five new artillery divisions, eight bomber aviation regiments, and one fighter regiment, as well as six army aviation brigades.
Last edited by Sprut-B on Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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hole wrote:
It seems Moscow and St. Petersburg will get their own military districts again.
New bomber regiments is great news. Keep the older Su-24M in service for a few more years and replace them step by step with Su-34 and combat drones (Okhotnik).
Yes, the north western grouping of forces will be more important, also karelia, it's necessary to station a combined arms army to support the arctic warfare brigades
I think we will also see a return to divisional structure , now having seen Ukrainian SMO, it's clear divisional-regimental strength units have greater advantages in high intensity conflicts then brigade-battalion structure
Maybe some kind of hybrid system
I also would like to see su34 regiments augmented with better survivability technology and methods , perhaps like you said, drones to assist the bombers, as well as fighters like su30 and su35 to assist in coordinating strikes
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Pretty sure he said 91% modern nukes. Still begs the question which nuclear munitions aren't modern? That remaining 9% that is.
RN series of tactical nuclear freefall bombs, perhaps? I think I have seen a Su-34 carrying the inert mockup in recent years, so they exist. Like the older U.S. B-61 models.
9% would include SS-25's (1 rgt left after this year) and SS-18's ICBM (last 46 or so starting to be replaced now) plus some Tu-95 bombers...
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(https://t.me/readovkanews/49304) Two Officers of the AFU's 80th Landing Brigade, whose Militants shot the Russian Military in the LPR, were taken Prisoner
It is reported that Russian Legion scouts, together with Akhmat units, have captured two stormtroopers of the 80th AFU Landing Brigade, whose fighters (https://t.me/readovkanews/47177) took part in the mass criminal execution (https://t.me/readovkanews/47169) of Russian captive soldiers. Two officers of the brigade that carried out the horrific punitive operation in the LPR were caught and handed over to the relevant authorities.
The brutality and inhumanity of the Ukrainian militants after the horrific video of the far from the first war crime (https://t.me/readovkanews/30068) by the AFU in November became evident even to the Western "partners", who demanded an investigation (https://t.me/readovkanews/47227) of the incident. Naturally, there was no reaction from the Ukrainian authorities, even after the international outcry.
https://t.me/sitreports/2358
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Today, Putin had the honor to preside over the ceremony awarding Russia's highest state awards to their recipients. I read some of the initial text then viewed the 32 photos of the event, which was held in the Catherine Hall of the Kremlin. I then did a search for that hall and found a photo tour of that part of the Kremlin. At least one of the awardees mentioned the reliefs that adorn the walls in the hall which can be seen in photo #2.
To work in such a museum must be a humbling experience even for someone as coarse as Stalin or Khrushchev. I'm very pleased they weren't ruined by the American Barbarians during the 1990s and suffered the fate the British visited upon the Greeks.
Picture 21 shows the Order of Courage being awarded to the correspondent head of the WarGonzo project Semyon Pegov, someone who is supposedly controversial. Twenty-two people were awarded, several of which will return to the front.
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 20 2022 18:47 utc | 30
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The crisis is 5th and 6th columnist liberals wanting things to go back to how they were before February 24th with Starbucks, Disney, Netflix and Schengen visas so they can travel to countries that openly hate them for being Russian.The article repeats SeigSolovyov's insistence on finishing the war quickly, despite there being no crisis on the economic and geopolitical side of things.
This SMO needs to be ended properly, not quickly. How long has the Syria conflict been going for? 10+ years? Anyone hoping for this to end quickly should go to Zelensky and beg him to surrender, other than that, leave the professionals to process the Ukro terrorists into fertilizer.
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#Bryansk Region:
Ukrainian militants shelled the village of #Suzemka. Railway tracks and power lines were damaged. The power supply in the settlement was temporarily cut.
An AFU drone have hit the district electric networks in the Trubchevsky district, damaging an administrative building and a vehicle. There were no deaths or injuries.
#Kursk Region:
Enemy militants struck the village of #Makhnovka in the #Suzhan district, residential buildings were damaged and a fire broke out on the site of the arrivals. One woman was injured.
#Belgorod Region:
Ukrainian militants shelled #Shebekino. Residential buildings, warehouses and infrastructure were hit. There were temporary problems with electricity and water supply in the city. One civilian was wounded.
#Starobelsk Direction (MAP):
In the #Kupyansk - #Svatovo section, units of the RF Armed Forces are attacking Ukrainian formations near #Dvurechnoye and #Petropavlovka.
The Ukrainian command moved the 3rd Battalion of the AFU's 14th Mechanized Brigade to the area of #Sinkovka and #Berestovoye to reinforce the defence.
In the #Liman sector, the enemy is preparing for a large-scale offensive on #Dibrova with the aim of continuing to #Kremennaya and the #Svatovo - #Kremennaya highway.
#Soledar Direction (MAP):
In the #Soledar sector, Ukrainian formations are spread information about the complete loss of #Yakovlevka and the advance of the RF Armed Forces towards #Soledar and #Razdolovka.
In the northeast, fighting continues at the site of the gas compressor station near #Spornoye.
In the #Bakhmut (#Artyomovsk) sector, Wagner PMC assault troops are engaged in fierce fighting in #Bakhmut and #Opytnoye. Russian artillery is hitting the enemy strongholds en masse.
In the southwest, Russian troops have pushed Ukrainian formations from the eastern outskirts of #Kleshchiyevka.
#Donetsk Direction:
Fighting continues in #Maryinka. The motorized rifle units of the RF Armed Forces are pushing the enemy to the western outskirts of the town.
Ukrainian terrorists have shelled populated areas of the #Donetsk agglomeration with rocket and gun artillery. A clinic and a neurosurgery department in #Donetsk have also been hit. One patient was killed and another wounded.
#Zaporozhye Direction:
In preparation for a possible offensive on #Tokmak, the AFU command continues to move additional forces into forward positions across the front.
Artillery duels continue along the line of contact. Russian troops have hit enemy positions in #Temirovka, Malaya Shcherbaki, #Dorozhnyanka, #Belogorye and #Novoandreyevka.
#Kherson Direction on Southern Front:
The AFU is using drones and informers to search for positions of the RF Armed Forces and supply lines along the banks of the #Dnipro River.
Russian artillery shelled Ukrainian formations in #Berislav, #Chernobaevka, #Antonovka and the outskirts of Kherson.
For their part, enemy terrorists shelled a school and a polyclinic in Novaya Kakhovka with barrel artillery.
https://t.me/sitreports/2366
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