Russian special military operation in Ukraine #39

Why Russia needs to wait for UA to escalate anything and then respond with symbolic attacks? Dams, bridges, tunnels, power stations. For some buildings in Mariupol? Makes no sense and this is disproportionate escalation only works for attacker.

In Transnistria yes some heavy equipment left, but small arms, ATGW systems, mortars, artillery shells etc were stored in a number of villages and in the capital Tiraspol I physically saw old Soviet style apartment blocks heavily guarded and locals told me the buildings and basements are full weapons it's no big secret.

If Ukraine was dumb enough to attack it for one they would be using a force that is largely made up of mobilization forces with 1-2 weeks training up against a regular army force, along with reservists and 1,500 Russian troops, I am pretty certain Transnistria has thought about this scenario and made some preparations
And remember Transnistria could easily call up it's own mobilization forces along with volunteers and police force, then you will have volunteers come from Moldova itself and Gagauzia volunteers, add to this people causing aggressive protests in the streets in Moldova I think it's a risky gamble and if Ukraine did it would be more likely out of desperation and as a distraction for its own failures within Ukraine. They wouldn't gain much really.

There is a flip side to this if Ukraine moves into attack Transnistria not only would this tick the box for Russia to get involved based on Russian speakers being targeted as is similar to Donbass but also the threat to Russia peacekeepers like in Georgia so Russia would have two very strong reasons to level any Ukrainian forces there and target Moldovan military infrastructure and forces, Moldova can't defend itself now, what will it be like once it's military is decapitated leaves it wide open. And this would easily bring a coup scenario where a pro Russian government will be installed to quell any further action and this will most likely be welcomed by the population. Nobody in Moldova wants their country to turn in a waste pile that is current Ukraine.

What is obvious and odd is resignation of the president to then install another pro EU leader obviously been selected by USA to do their bidding. Moldova leadership is playing with a match box.

How can Russia respond against Ukraine actually setting a foot into Transnistria? Let’s assume Moldovans don’t full idiot, but Ukrainians as expected, do.

Ukrainians are claiming that Russians will take over the airport in Chisinau, but surely, how will they fly anything there

Easy

Kill them

Kill them ? What will that achieve ? They just die and do nothing about it . It is impossible to be aware of  and react to death ! I think what you mean is make them fearful of death , while they are still alive ! You know , like the song : killing me softly with his smile . What , I hear you say " a smile carries no fear ! " But it does , if the smiler has no teeth ! You know , they lost their teeth , because they used Nuclear toothpaste . I like Nukes , and I got my wish . There will now be atmospheric tests , put on TV . And next ? Nuclear toothpaste for the westerners women . They are used to it . They like their women or brides , without teeth . Apparently brides to be in England , up to 1960 , had all their teeth extracted , before marriage . To save the Groom the expenses of dentistry ..


https://twitter.com/THEMONTHLY/status/1627119778857988098


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_XOi5XQJ8PI


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hjuL0vVg2y4

Sometimes - call me dumb - I really don't get the lenient behavior of the Russian leadership.

What you call lenient I call reasonable.

- Providing security guarantees for Biden's visit to Ukraine.

We don't even know if they provided security guarantees in the first place.

And then they discuss the use of long range missiles to target Russian cities. Russian special military operation in Ukraine #39 1f632 You are basically aiding your enemy.

They could discuss such things on the phone if they wanted to.

Imagine if Ukrainian factions took a shot at the guy who created this situation for them... hilarious... even if Russia would be blamed of course...

- No (kinetic) response on the NS1 or NS2 pipelines. Not everything is traceable, and accidents happen. But no response basically confirms the other side "we get away with it every time, let's find our next target".

No response yet because it is Germany that suffers from their destruction... Russia still sells gas to them but through the Ukraine Kiev gets a cut of all they buy which adds to their energy costs and limits volumes that can be delivered.

This was a US attack on Germany, not Russia.

- Not taking out accumulation of armor but letting it reach frontlines; you have the satellite imagery; take it out. You have the standoff weaponry capable of doing so. The moment you see the ship or the train appear with undesirable cargo; have one or multiple UCAVs in the air at all times. And it's not that you need to cover large regions; you know the ports, storage hubs and rail tracks. They are not moving the material on a trailer towed by a Lada.

You assume they will be transporting tanks and artillery and ammo exposed on the back of trucks and trains visible for anyone to see... I rather suspect they don't do that.

The non-action just extends and lengthens the conflict and a weak response just invites US/NATO/Western into taking the next step.

The west and the Ukraine are suffering more than Russia is... and the longer it takes the more sanctions the west imposes on Russia which actually forces Russia to become even more independent of the west, which is good for Russia.

The drones on other hand, Chinese are leaders in the field and I would trust even untested drone from them.

Well you shouldn't... untested items almost always fail for some reason or another... testing is the most important part of product development and the point where the ugly duckling turns into a swan... or a pile of shit.

Russia has lots of things at final prototype stage they could test in the Ukraine just as these things would actually benefit from being used in a real war too.

China should be donating items for real world testing, but Russias priority should be to test their own stuff first, which will take time... Russian prototypes are more likely to already contain Russian components that are easy to access or produce locally.

Chinese products should not be ignored or discounted but Russia has been looking at Iranian drones for years and likely fully tested them already... don't expect Chinese drones to suddenly enter Russian service.

China can best help Russia by dropping every and all sanction by all Chinese companies and opening up trade... Russia already sells energy to them much cheaper than market price used to be when cheap Russian gas was heading to Europe.

Only reliable thing China can supply - communication equipment, drones and medium range strike systems.

It would take too long to integrate comms equipment and localise production with local parts, with regard to drones there will be some that might be interesting, but China will have a range of artillery and weapons in the 500km to 4,000km range bracket that Russia was previously not allowed under the INF treaty that might be of interest.

Would be stupid not to purchase it from them as these are never enough

The west fully arms Kiev so there is no reason for Russia to refuse sourcing ammo and weapons from other countries too, but I suspect they have most of their needs covered.

The risk would be buying 122mm ammo and 152mm ammo to find it is old Soviet period stocks they are getting rid of too which might not be safe.

Biden walks around while sirens are on in Kiev, but in Poland he’s in a protected capsule?
-> He trusts Putin more than Duda? … LMAO

Hilarious...

Shortening 9 months to 2 weeks, huh, go figure.

To be fair the US does have miracle workers working for them... they said the AEGIS Ashore missile system could not take ground launched Tomahawk cruise missiles as that would violate the INF treaty, but of course when they ripped that treaty up it was a whole 14 days before they tested a Tomahawk cruise missile launch from those missile tubes...

Mass HIMARS (assumed) strikes tonight in Donetsk, Makeyevka, Khartsyzsk, Mariupol and some other places.

US trying to stop potential offensive is my guess.

They expect to stop a Russian offensive... by shelling Russian civilians?

That is what started this conflict in the first place... idiots.

This 'oh hey we're intercepting them so far' reaction isn't an appropriate F'ing response. They just want to scar up Mariupols newly built apartments and then make memes about it.

Shows the character of Kiev though... we need longer range missiles and new tanks and aircraft to reach Russian military forces... and when they get longer range missiles they fire them at civilian regions...

Ukrainian BS in Moldova would simply make it in Russias interests to move the front line to a place where they could give direct help on the matter...

Russia recently dropped a guided FOAB (Bunker Buster, Father of all Bombs) somewhere near Bakhmut according to Military Summary yesterday.

Interesting comment made by Khodakovsky re Wagner and general problems with ammunition:

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2592

The problem is not that PMCs stopped receiving ammunition, but that they began to receive them, like everyone else. Frankly, we envied the "Wagners" in a good way, when they had their own front-line aviation, a daily allowance of two Iskanders and one Caliber, when they signed applications for two and a half thousand guns for training (!) Practice, when they were dragged to them with the whole country of convicts ... They envied, but they understood that not everyone would be given such a supply - and he would give the same result as they did. The result consists not only of the number ...

Now the supply for pguys have become like everyone else, and the most depressing thing is not that they were specifically lowered to the general norms, but that these general norms do not allow them to give the desired result. Under the same Ugledar, before the offensive, the army reduced daily consumption to a minimum in order to accumulate a supply at least on the first day of the offensive. This was obviously not enough to suppress the resistance of the enemy, and the consequences were not long in coming.

@Backman
Russia recently dropped a guided FOAB (Bunker Buster, Father of all Bombs) somewhere near Bakhmut according to Military Summary yesterday.

If you are talking about this https://t.me/milinfolive/97155 , it was in Avdeevka, and target was coke and chemical plant.

Tell Moldova if they let Ukro in to kill russian because they clearly made a pact with the devil, that would ve seen as a declaration of war and you will blow up all their infrastructure. That will calm them.

New START was always under stress. Not merely due to the state of the US-Russia relationship, but more so due to Chinese nuclear expansion that is actually the single-most worrying prospect for everyone.

The Chinese only started expanding their nuclear arsenal when the US ripped up the INF treaty and started talking about basing cruise missiles for now and ballistic missiles in the future around China... to contain them.

Britain and France have more nukes that China had and the Soviets didn't complain they weren't included in the deal... but now clearly Putin is going to demand they be included... and Israeli nukes as well I suspect... why not...

GarryB wrote:Britain and France have more nukes that China had and the Soviets didn't complain they weren't included in the deal... but now clearly Putin is going to demand they be included... and Israeli nukes as well I suspect... why not

India and Pakistan should also be included. Israeli nuclear programme benefitted from the influx of Russian and Ukrainian scientists, engineers throughout the 90s. Pakistan received nuclear knowhow and enriched uranium from both U.S and China. India stole Soviet nuclear secrets by bribing Russian diplomats and used Soviet fissile materials meant for nuclear power plants to design nuclear warhead.

ritain and France have more nukes that China had and the Soviets didn't complain they weren't included in the deal... but now clearly Putin is going to demand they be included... and Israeli nukes as well I suspect... why not... wrote:

China probably already has more nuclear weapons than France and England. They will soon reach parity with the US and Russia.

START was nothing more than a political gesture of de-escalation.
And shouldn't be considered anything different.
Muricans always had a habit of pushing the agenda of "de-escalation" when faced with defeat, nothing else.
At the moment, Russia has an obvious advantage in the nuclear sphere.
The gap is gigantic. Muricans won't be capable to catch the current Russian position in the next decade.
The optimistic scenario puts the first Columbia submarine for 2031, and it will still hold the archaic Trident on board ...
There is no sense in discussing the ICBMs or hypersonic elements because one shouldn't kick the dead horse.

Nuclear force structure in Russia represents >91% of most modern equipment, and ALL represents a much higher level than Murican's.
It seems that countries like North Korea are more advanced in some technologies than the US.

The Trident II is still a very good SLBM round. Carries a hefty load of 2.8 tons m. Much more than Bulava. Like the Bulava, it can also fly on a flatter trajectory, etc

This was a US attack on Germany, not Russia.

Not really true Garry. Whilst the German economy/population suffered so did the rest of Europe/World with the high gas prices. Also the pipelines themselves are owned at least 50% by Russia.

This was an 'equal opportunity' attack by the US on all the World, ramming home their current dominance. But ironically undermining it as an unintended consequence.

India and Pakistan should also be included

Why would they join... why would they want Americans and Russians inspecting their warheads and a limit on their number.

They wont even admit to how many they have let alone want to share information... why agree to let others in to look... they know their rivals will use it as a chance to spy...

Israeli nuclear programme benefitted from the influx of Russian and Ukrainian scientists, engineers throughout the 90s.

Doesn't matter where they came from, it matters which side they will fire in support of in the case of a nuclear conflict.

China probably already has more nuclear weapons than France and England. They will soon reach parity with the US and Russia.

They are expensive and not that easy to create in large numbers very quickly, but the core problem is that China will say France and England are US vassals so they count as US weapons, while China and Russia are independent states so China and Russia should each be allowed the same number of warheads as the US and France and the UK combined....

This was a US attack on Germany, not Russia.

Not really true Garry. Whilst the German economy/population suffered so did the rest of Europe/World with the high gas prices. Also the pipelines themselves are owned at least 50% by Russia.

This was an 'equal opportunity' attack by the US on all the World, ramming home their current dominance. But ironically undermining it as an unintended consequence.

You are right, but I would add that Russia benefits from the higher energy prices by not having to deliver as much for the same or better return.

Actual extraction costs have not changed so really it is just profit for them and at a time when Russia was deliberately reducing the amount of gas they were delivering the US being the bad guy is a perfect way to reduce the flow even further with someone to blame.

The billions needed to fix it only matter if they actually fix it and the shift to the east suggests to me there is less and less need to fix it.

Ironically the attack took place in the section of pipe that Denmark was humming hand haaing over whether to give permission for and at the time I said spend extra money and built around their waters so they don't get any money for transit fees... if they had built more pipes to bypass the area they would not have needed to stop for so long and could have finished faster and any attempt by the US or anyone at sabotage would have had to either be in Russian or international or German waters and I can't see them convincing the Germans to let them do it.

Not really true Garry. Whilst the German economy/population suffered so did the rest of Europe/World with the high gas prices. Also the pipelines themselves are owned at least 50% by Russia.
This was an 'equal opportunity' attack by the US on all the World, ramming home their current dominance. But ironically undermining it as an unintended consequence.

Because it was an attack not solely targeting Germany, but the whole of EU.
This is the thing that people are missing in the first place.
Europe settled the Ukrainian conflict politically back in 2014.
They have brokered a deal, with Germany, France, and Polish coverage.
Yanuk was to step down, early elections were to be held, and constitutional changes were to have proceeded.
But that was not the Anglosaxon goal, to settle things and calm them down.
What they needed was a vassal state to be used later.
Fuk the EU!
Ukraine become a private farm for Biden family and the other Murica oligarchy and big business who physically bought the country.
That is the thing that people are forgetting either.
Ukraine became a private owned asset harvested by the new masters, with social experiments to cover that up and reshape the society running in the background.
On the other hand, Russia has not lost much if anything on that project. The price hike made them earn much more at a much faster rate, while not carrying any operational costs.
Equipment can be simply relocated to the other projects in construction. All the turbines, valves, control infrastructure - can be reused.

https://southfront.org/democracy-in-danger-russians-hunt-for-gays-in-ukrainian-trenches-video-18/

Chortle!

A wonderful use of a quadcopter and a few dozen grams of HE. More pls.

Interesting read on the difficulties in fighting this SMO

https://topwar-ru.translate.goog/211291-taktika-dejstvij-pehoty-v-svo.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

https://t.me/milinfolive/97235

What's the deal with this Wagner and this ammo anyway? Is this some sort of disinformation or a power struggle?
Prigozhin writes that hundreds of Wagner's people died because of this, etc

Russian military are fighting near the center of Artemovsk, 02.22.2023.

Pushilin's adviser Gagin: Russian troops are fighting almost in the center of Artemovsk.

MOSCOW, February 22 - RIA Novosti. Fighting in Artemovsk is already going on almost in the center of the city, said Jan Gagin, adviser to the acting head of the DPR, on the air of the Rossiya 1 TV channel.

"The initiative is now in the hands of our fighters, our troops have long entered from the northern side of Artemovsk. Now they are already fighting almost in the center of the city,” he said.

According to Gagin, the surrender of the city by Ukrainian units is a matter of time and will happen "quite soon."

The Armed Forces of Ukraine now simply do not have the strength for serious counterattacks, the adviser emphasized.

"Reports about the redeployment of national battalions to the Artemovsk area, rather, this is a question of creating some kind of detachments, this is not a shock group. Most likely, it is with the forces of these national battalions that they will drive the mobilized infantry into position. These are just attempts to hold the city," Gagin concluded.

Artemovsk is located in the Kiev-controlled part of the DPR north of Gorlovka . This is an important transport hub for supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbass.

On Friday, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Irina Vereshchuk called on the residents of Artemivsk to leave the city as soon as possible. Ukrainian media wrote that they began to take out the archives of state institutions from there. The press secretary of the eastern grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Serhiy Cherevaty, announced the restriction of access to the city for civilians.

https://ria.ru/20230222/artemovsk-1853669575.html