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Log inGarryB wrote " Not really practical, the land borders are quite long and there are more than a few roads and rail lines and bridges.They are waiting for the big Orc offensive which I suspect they intend to stop and roll back and go on an offensive themselves.I rather suspect a naval attack on Odessa would fail, they need to attack from the land. " I counted about forty main Roads and Rail lines . Easy to cut them . In Summer , they can still use dirt Roads , this is true . But not winter ! Better to stop a poorly armed horde , then a well armed one . Naval attack possible with 5000 small landing craft , and air support . IMHO . Iran has 40,000 small attack craft , each carry missiles and five crew .
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Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42
nomadski- Posts : 3069
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GarryB wrote " Not really practical, the land borders are quite long and there are more than a few roads and rail lines and bridges.They are waiting for the big Orc offensive which I suspect they intend to stop and roll back and go on an offensive themselves.I rather suspect a naval attack on Odessa would fail, they need to attack from the land. " I counted about forty main Roads and Rail lines . Easy to cut them . In Summer , they can still use dirt Roads , this is true . But not winter ! Better to stop a poorly armed horde , then a well armed one . Naval attack possible with 5000 small landing craft , and air support . IMHO . Iran has 40,000 small attack craft , each carry missiles and five crew .
Serberus- Posts : 416
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Join date : 2022-02-24
Britain supplies Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of counteroffensive - CNN. The range of the missile is 560 km.
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UK delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine will require adequate response from Russian military - Peskov
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Anyone with a brain already knows the only response will be a strongly worded social media rant by Medvedev
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UK delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine will require adequate response from Russian military - Peskov————
Anyone with a brain already knows the only response will be a strongly worded social media rant by Medvedev
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Podlodka77- Posts : 2589
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- Post n°478
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42
Podlodka77 Thu May 11, 2023 8:15 am
Western delivery of long-range missiles is not a good thing and far more dangerous than delivery of Western aircraft.
The West is probably targeting Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet, the Crimean bridge and probably the Russian border areas with Ukroshitstan - primarily the energy sector and military bases..
With the Russians, even after almost 15 months, the key word is patience, but I wonder how much longer.
It's not at all a question whether the Russians have anything to retaliate because it is known that the whole West can burn, but I wonder why the West OBVIOUSLY thinks "the Russians must not retaliate".
And it all boils down to just one thing, it seems to me, and that is Russia's postponement of a direct war with the West.
Ukroshitstan is just collateral damage and that is clear as day. The Russians could have razed crappy Kiev to the ground on the FIRST day and they didn't.
Everything points towards the fact that we will all feel the war in the ned ; I, like ALAMO or Isos, that is, the war will come to us.
The West is probably targeting Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet, the Crimean bridge and probably the Russian border areas with Ukroshitstan - primarily the energy sector and military bases..
With the Russians, even after almost 15 months, the key word is patience, but I wonder how much longer.
It's not at all a question whether the Russians have anything to retaliate because it is known that the whole West can burn, but I wonder why the West OBVIOUSLY thinks "the Russians must not retaliate".
And it all boils down to just one thing, it seems to me, and that is Russia's postponement of a direct war with the West.
Ukroshitstan is just collateral damage and that is clear as day. The Russians could have razed crappy Kiev to the ground on the FIRST day and they didn't.
Everything points towards the fact that we will all feel the war in the ned ; I, like ALAMO or Isos, that is, the war will come to us.
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Hole- Posts : 11122
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You can´t destroy rail lines or even roads with some bombs. You can only damage a few metres which can be repairedBut still, why all the rails lines and main road are not hit daily with FAB 500's is a real mystery to me.
in a matter of hours (in case of railways) or even faster (roads).
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TMA1- Posts : 1194
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This. It is an attempt to goad Russia into declaring war, and is an insane move which could very possibly lead to ww3
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Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E- Posts : 737
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- Post n°481
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42
Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Thu May 11, 2023 8:26 am
The Russian military is thus confirmed. What was their position in 2021? Either we act now or the NATO proxy fascists in Ukraine will get long-range missiles (possibly even hypersonic) later and Moscow will be gone in 90 seconds. We must counter this threat. Lo and behold, the dirty Brits deliver it. The SMO was right, is right and must take every inch of Fascist ground and then face to face with NATO. No Syrian Scenario on Russia's Borders!
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Podlodka77- Posts : 2589
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- Post n°482
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42
Podlodka77 Thu May 11, 2023 8:49 am
To TMA
That's what it's all about. It is not about Ukroshitstan, Kiev, Kharkov or Odessa at all.
In fact, for 15 months the conflict in Ukroshitstan has only been about that, that is, the BIGGER conflict is being postponed.
All those who think that the Russians are retarded for not reacting to "Moscow", the Saki airport, the Crimean bridge could eventually feel the answer (the War) on their own skin or, in the best case, in their own country.
The Russians, with their non-reaction to everything mentioned, are actually saying that they are for peace and not for total war, and it is up to the West to keep that peace.
That's what it's all about. It is not about Ukroshitstan, Kiev, Kharkov or Odessa at all.
In fact, for 15 months the conflict in Ukroshitstan has only been about that, that is, the BIGGER conflict is being postponed.
All those who think that the Russians are retarded for not reacting to "Moscow", the Saki airport, the Crimean bridge could eventually feel the answer (the War) on their own skin or, in the best case, in their own country.
The Russians, with their non-reaction to everything mentioned, are actually saying that they are for peace and not for total war, and it is up to the West to keep that peace.
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nomadski- Posts : 3069
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tPK8zdDSTVY&pp=ygUbUmVwbGFjaW5nIHJhaWx3YXkgbGluZXMgd3cy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uYW1bKXNaWU&pp=ygUbUmVwbGFjaW5nIHJhaWx3YXkgbGluZXMgd3cy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qg1WTS7VQWo&pp=ygUSQm9tYmluZyAgcm9hZHMgd3cy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VPVsdqENnNY&pp=ygUSQm9tYmluZyAgcm9hZHMgd3cy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uYW1bKXNaWU&pp=ygUbUmVwbGFjaW5nIHJhaWx3YXkgbGluZXMgd3cy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qg1WTS7VQWo&pp=ygUSQm9tYmluZyAgcm9hZHMgd3cy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VPVsdqENnNY&pp=ygUSQm9tYmluZyAgcm9hZHMgd3cy
Last edited by nomadski on Thu May 11, 2023 9:05 am; edited 1 time in total
ALAMO- Posts : 7515
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Podlodka77 wrote:To TMA
That's what it's all about. It is not about Ukroshitstan, Kiev, Kharkov or Odessa at all.
In fact, for 15 months the conflict in Ukroshitstan has only been about that, that is, the BIGGER conflict is being postponed.
All those who think that the Russians are retarded for not reacting to "Moscow", the Saki airport, the Crimean bridge could eventually feel the answer (the War) on their own skin or, in the best case, in their own country.
The Russians, with their non-reaction to everything mentioned, are actually saying that they are for peace and not for total war, and it is up to the West to keep that peace.
So you should be quite happy.
Because the only thing this war proved to everyone, is the fact that the west is weak as a baby and unprepared to do much.
Even better, it is not going to do anything more serious rather than PR stunt anyway.
A full scale war wth Russia is a perfectly last thing the west now wants, and all that those idiots are performing is just a spasm of remains of Ukrs.
Ukrs will run out soon.
If they won't find any new candidates to become successors, the thing is done.
And it does not look like they will.
Poland can have a mouth full of bravery and drum beating, but every single time something happens they STFU.
A dummy Ch-55 they gave found by accident, months after it fell into a forest nearby fukin BYDGOSZCZ, which means it flows through 2/3 of the Polish airspace, including WARSAW and LODZ.
Nobody saw it, and in a 100km circle where it fall there are dozens of strategic objects and military infrastructure. Like the main base of PAF F-16 and REDZIKOWO missile infrastructure is about 150 km away.
What they are doing now, is covering that shit up, happy that the village where the debris were spotted by a civilians, on the ground, montks after it arrived, is called ZAMOŚĆ. The same as Zamość near by Ukro border. So they ceased to write "Zamość near by Bydgoszcz" and started only "Zamość" for a while.
Yes, they really think that people are so stupid that won't recall.
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Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E- Posts : 737
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- Post n°485
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42
Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Thu May 11, 2023 9:58 am
@GeromanAT
Latest Yuri reports says Ukraine is ow attacking on 3 axes on the flanks of Bakhmut
Latest Yuri reports says Ukraine is ow attacking on 3 axes on the flanks of Bakhmut
zare- Posts : 61
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isn't Storm Shadow air launched? From what aircraft are they going to launch it?
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Podlodka77- Posts : 2589
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- Post n°487
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42
Podlodka77 Thu May 11, 2023 10:08 am
То ALAMO
I, unlike many here, think that the USA has bigger internal problems than any European country. For the stated reason, someone in the USA is forcing this conflict in Ukroshitstan to divert attention from those problems.
My guess is that the West (USA and UK) is already planning to drag Finland, Poland, Romania, Moldova and the Baltic banana states into a conflict against Russia.
In any case, then Belarus would also enter the war.
It is aimed at the fact that the Russians will take the "bait" and that they will waste themselves in endless conflicts, which in my opinion is a completely illogical thinking of the West because Boomerang must return.
Their assumption in the West is that all is well as long as it is away from the UK and France.
Europe has literally been a worn out whorehouse owned by the USA since the end of WW2.
The only question is whether what the USA (and UK) would like to avoid will happen, which is that the USA (and UK) remains intact but Europe and Russia suffer.
I, unlike many here, think that the USA has bigger internal problems than any European country. For the stated reason, someone in the USA is forcing this conflict in Ukroshitstan to divert attention from those problems.
My guess is that the West (USA and UK) is already planning to drag Finland, Poland, Romania, Moldova and the Baltic banana states into a conflict against Russia.
In any case, then Belarus would also enter the war.
It is aimed at the fact that the Russians will take the "bait" and that they will waste themselves in endless conflicts, which in my opinion is a completely illogical thinking of the West because Boomerang must return.
Their assumption in the West is that all is well as long as it is away from the UK and France.
Europe has literally been a worn out whorehouse owned by the USA since the end of WW2.
The only question is whether what the USA (and UK) would like to avoid will happen, which is that the USA (and UK) remains intact but Europe and Russia suffer.
JohninMK- Posts : 15649
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zare wrote:isn't Storm Shadow air launched? From what aircraft are they going to launch it?
Yes. Probably the same aircraft as they use for the HARM and winged bombs. Targeting before take-off.
JohninMK- Posts : 15649
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Probably still alive then
Spriter
@Spriter99880
·
6h
UAF general Syrsky arrived in Konstantinovka, where he is in charge of preparing a counterattack on Bakhmut. Acc UkrMedia
Spriter
@Spriter99880
·
6h
UAF general Syrsky arrived in Konstantinovka, where he is in charge of preparing a counterattack on Bakhmut. Acc UkrMedia
zare- Posts : 61
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JohninMK wrote:zare wrote:isn't Storm Shadow air launched? From what aircraft are they going to launch it?
Yes. Probably the same aircraft as they use for the HARM and winged bombs. Targeting before take-off.
250km version is not that dangerous, and 500km version UK will probably not send because Russians could get their hands on its flight control computer.
If we're talking about MiG-29 they would have to launch 250km version while above Odessa. I'm not sure where Russian AA is located but I believe this can be mitigated. Ukrainians would need the 500km version to have realistic chances of launch.
Even 500km version wouldn't escalate directly to nuclear scenarios. Russia also has option to send "unlimited" versions to their allies.
Somehow I doubt UK trusts Ukraine enough to give it 500km version.
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limb- Posts : 1550
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Thats it. Russian generals really want to copy the wermacht at the stalingrad flanks. ABsolutely pathetic and embarrassing.
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Arkanghelsk
Arkanghelsk- Posts : 3917
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- Post n°492
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42
Arkanghelsk Thu May 11, 2023 11:32 am
Information has been confirmed about plans for a 65,000-strong AFU force to hit the border regions.
Zelensky may be lying about the postponement of the counter - offensive.
The Nazis are discussing, a plan drawn up by NATO to capture Belgorod and Bryansk with the regions. The 65,000 fighters, who have been trained in the EU, Canada and the UK to operate modern equipment unparalleled in Russia, are ready for a breakthrough.
The source also claims that at the same time the AFU is planning to strike Zaporozhye and with British long-range missiles at airfields in Voronezh, Ryazan, Bryansk, Belgorod, Rostov, Lipetsk and Taganrog.
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limb- Posts : 1550
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The fact that mobilized and even elements of the much vaunted 3rd volunteer corps just cowardly run away from fortified positions on the artemovsk flanks shows thatthe russian army lied that their recruits are well trained. It doesnt take an armchair general to notice that without special forces, wagner or VDV babysitting them, russian regular motorized soldiers are undersupplied, poorly equipped, worthless retards without any motivation. Prigozhin, who had 500 of his mercs killed on may 9 trying to retake the retardedly abandoned positions at the donbass canal and bogdanovka and plug holes on the flanks, said as much., said as much.
sundoesntrise- Posts : 361
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- Post n°494
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42
sundoesntrise Thu May 11, 2023 11:39 am
limb wrote:Thats it. Russian generals really want to copy the wermacht at the stalingrad flanks. ABsolutely pathetic and embarrassing.
Waiting for crowds' damage control attempts.
Those same fanboizz that for 8 long years babbled about how Russia wouldn't need Ukraine as it was winning on the Grand Chessboard anyway. And when that turned out that be as retarded a take as possible, they flip-flopped instantly to predicting the RAF would be in Kiev in no less then 14 days due to incessant consumption of Kremlin propaganda - which all obviously turned out to be fake.
Unfortunately its now day 441 and Russia is stuck on all fronts with extremely worrying reports coming out of desertion/insubordination of regular Russian units on both flanks of the Bakhmut cauldron.
In any serious military these deserters would be court martialled and swiftly executed as it is equal to high treason. Probably not in the RAF nor on RussiaDefense.net though, the former led by a bunch of completely incompetent Soviet dinosaurs, and the latter populated by paid shills who prefer bitching about the only fighting unit that's actually performing - namely Wagner led by Prigozhin.
I swear to God if the Russian military/political leadership let's this slide (like they led everything slide before) they deserve everything that's coming their way.
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Podlodka77- Posts : 2589
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- Post n°495
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42
Podlodka77 Thu May 11, 2023 11:57 am
Ugh, how many rats suddenly appear on the forum.
The idea that sending missiles and probably planes will remain just a "job" for Ukrops and the Russians is a big illusion.
And while these three who published the message before me think "if Russia doesn't do this or that then this or that will follow", I am of the opinion that all this will eventually reach me and you.
And who will be your fault then ?
I can bet that the conflict will expand either this year or next year at the latest.
It's easy to send pictures from the front and write about something that is far away, but all of that can come to Europe and apparently it will.
Then you won't care about Ukroshitstan or Russia anymore, but overnight you will find out how fucked up your life is.
The idea that sending missiles and probably planes will remain just a "job" for Ukrops and the Russians is a big illusion.
And while these three who published the message before me think "if Russia doesn't do this or that then this or that will follow", I am of the opinion that all this will eventually reach me and you.
And who will be your fault then ?
I can bet that the conflict will expand either this year or next year at the latest.
It's easy to send pictures from the front and write about something that is far away, but all of that can come to Europe and apparently it will.
Then you won't care about Ukroshitstan or Russia anymore, but overnight you will find out how fucked up your life is.
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zare- Posts : 61
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Podlodka77 wrote:Ugh, how many rats suddenly appear on the forum.
Some sort of operations have started; I don't know if counteroffensive is too big of a word.
Be prepared to have daily influx of doomers and fake news.
Regarding UK missiles they will 100% launch their own version from deep inside Ukraine-controlled territory but that'll be a test with NATO staff and not AFU operation. There is no chance in hell they won't try to perform real world testing.
lancelot- Posts : 3174
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I think Russia should just bite the bullet, expand conscription, and take the whole of Eastern Ukraine. Including Zaporizhzhia and Kharkov. The Dnieper is a reasonable enough buffer as a dividing line and should stabilize the front. The current situation is not long term sustainable.
But as is right now the situation is definitively not what the West expected. They expected either the Russian government to collapse due to sanctions, or for it to have to fight a massive counter insurgency campaign, just like the US had to do in Iraq. Instead the US and EU have to give many tens of billions of dollars a year to a moribund Ukrainian economy, essentially keeping it on life support. Instead of having to finance a cheap counter insurgency, they have to supply expensive big ticket items like armored vehicles, which they have to take out of their stocks, and watch them get splattered on Ukraine. If they fall into the temptation to send aircraft they will lose even more. If I was Russia I would definitively continue this for at least another year before going in for the kill.
But as is right now the situation is definitively not what the West expected. They expected either the Russian government to collapse due to sanctions, or for it to have to fight a massive counter insurgency campaign, just like the US had to do in Iraq. Instead the US and EU have to give many tens of billions of dollars a year to a moribund Ukrainian economy, essentially keeping it on life support. Instead of having to finance a cheap counter insurgency, they have to supply expensive big ticket items like armored vehicles, which they have to take out of their stocks, and watch them get splattered on Ukraine. If they fall into the temptation to send aircraft they will lose even more. If I was Russia I would definitively continue this for at least another year before going in for the kill.
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mnztr- Posts : 2898
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GarryB wrote:So allowing more of their men to die is better then the bandera supporters?
The fact of the matter is that Russian soldiers are going to die in this conflict... no matter what they do.
Massing up a huge force will just put more Russians in the way and create a target rich environment for a guerilla war that the west has been hoping for... that wont work in the east and south of the country because the locals are less likely to support orcs that have been shelling them for the last decade, but as the Russian forces move forward they are going to come to areas where they believe the shit the west is broadcasting and they will help these terrorists and that is going to be a problem.
Another factor is that the longer this goes on the more nazis get whacked too.
If they don't deal with it properly now the west is going to build up and fund what is left and in 5 to ten years time some more young men are going to have to do this all again.
Russia is not doing this for fun, this is important and it is important they get it right.
Maybe the problem is the west thinks Putin is weak and does not have the spine, so maybe using nukes might wake them up, or it might just escalate things further.
Personally I think nukes should be kept for any HATO troops thinking they can come in and get directly involved because they would represent a direct threat to Russia which justifies the use of nukes but I hope the Russians spell that out clearly so they are not stupid enough to send in troops and require such actions in the first place.
PS did you have to repeat my entire post to make that comment?
This was one of the reasons the quote button disappeared.
The red square parade only showed one T34 Tank . Meaning the entire force is or should be deployed .
They have tens of thousands of tanks they could send to a parade and the conflict... sending a T-34 only to the parade was about the fact that this parade is about WWII nazis... not present day nazis from the west.
They are running exercises in Russia around the place all the time and those exercises use men and machines that are not being used in Ukraine or in Syria.
The tactics must change : First all civilian goods must pass by Ship , through Black Sea , or through Belarus , after inspection by Russia . The border to Poland and Romania must have all traffic stopped . All Road and Rail to be cut .Second all Bridges on Deniper must fall , all supplies to Ukrs Army in East cut .
Not really practical, the land borders are quite long and there are more than a few roads and rail lines and bridges.
They are waiting for the big Orc offensive which I suspect they intend to stop and roll back and go on an offensive themselves.
I rather suspect a naval attack on Odessa would fail, they need to attack from the land.
If they cannot summon the air power to seriously disrupt heavy traffic on roads to the West then they really are not a serious power. They don't need to shut tight as a drum. But diesel, and vehicles are heavy as is 155 and HIMARS rounds. they cannot move that in volume off road. Even if they took out the rails and put some nice 15 ft craters on the highways it would stop things pretty fast.
dionis- Posts : 217
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I wonder if the Russian government here has an actual end game in mind, or if they are just winging it.
The war of attrition strategy won't work. Ukraine easily has 2.5M men (probably multiples more) to kill, and even if Russia can kill 200,000 per year, it'll take over a decade to do. Makes no sense.
So what's the play here, hope for an internal coup? Zelensky and Co have a very good grip on things - there is nothing of the sort even beginning to emerge.
The war of attrition strategy won't work. Ukraine easily has 2.5M men (probably multiples more) to kill, and even if Russia can kill 200,000 per year, it'll take over a decade to do. Makes no sense.
So what's the play here, hope for an internal coup? Zelensky and Co have a very good grip on things - there is nothing of the sort even beginning to emerge.
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ucmvulcan- Posts : 1367
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dionis wrote:I wonder if the Russian government here has an actual end game in mind, or if they are just winging it.
The war of attrition strategy won't work. Ukraine easily has 2.5M men (probably multiples more) to kill, and even if Russia can kill 200,000 per year, it'll take over a decade to do. Makes no sense.
So what's the play here, hope for an internal coup? Zelensky and Co have a very good grip on things - there is nothing of the sort even beginning to emerge.
Originally the plan was that Russian forces would show up and demonstrate a show of force and then the Ukrainians would see they were free and would overthrow the government or force Zelensky to both, or maybe both. That failed for a variety of reasons and so they withdrew to predominantly Russian areas and decided to defend them and those people at all costs. Which led to the dig in and play whackamole wherever the Ukes pop up.
The plan now is playing whackamole. Remember, Putin did say he has no territorial aim other than to stop the genocide in Donbass and protect Crimea. He also said the aim was to denazify, demilitartize and make neutral. He did mostly destroy the first and second Ukrainian armies but NATO keeps coming. B
Since 2014 I have seen a terrible and destructive and almost completely ruinous war for all parties involved. That is to say a total war and by definition a nuclear war. Oh it might not have started that way, but it will eventually go that way. Russia cannot stop the war now until Ukraine is compeltely prostrate. Its what NATO wants. NATO cannot stop the war until Russia is prostrate. Ukraine cannot stop the war until NATO allows them to stop. At this point its only a matter of time, weeks, months, hopefully years, before it does go nuclear. If Russian airfields are hit successfully by british built missiles and any part of the Russian triad is damaged, Putin will literally have no choice other than to escalate this war.
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