Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42

How Russia will shoot down Storm Shadow missiles, by Nikolai Gulyaev for VZGLYAD. 05.11.2023.

British cruise missiles will only be able to harm Russia if they are used en masse.

Ukraine has received at its disposal a weapon that only a few countries in the world can create. We are talking about British-made high-precision long-range air-launched cruise missiles (CRBMs) Storm Shadow. What kind of missiles are they, what threat can they pose to Russian troops - and what needs to be done to destroy them?

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace has officially confirmed that London has handed over the stealthy Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles to the Kiev regime. Of course, this gesture is tied to the forthcoming counteroffensive into Russian territories, advertised by both the West and Ukraine.

“The use of Storm Shadow missiles will allow Ukraine to push back Russian forces from the sovereign territory of Ukraine,” Wallace said . He put the Storm Shadow on a par with other similar high-precision and long-range weapons previously transferred by the West to Ukraine. In particular, the Harpoon anti-ship missiles and the M270 MLRS long-range missiles for the HIMARS MLRS.

According to TASS, it followed from his words that the range of missiles transferred to Kyiv is 250-300 km. This corresponds to the characteristics of the export version of Storm Shadow, despite the fact that the maximum range of these missiles can reach 560 km.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia treats such supplies "very negatively", this "will require an adequate response from our military."

Storm Shadow is a really serious weapon system. “The key parameter of missiles is the target engagement range. It should be borne in mind here that the flight of the upgraded Storm Shadow can be increased from 250 to 560 km, - says Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, to the VZGLYAD newspaper. – This fact must be kept in mind and approached with extreme caution in such deliveries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In principle, with the transfer of such shells, we can talk about a new round of escalation on the part of Western countries.”

Missiles of this class are very advanced from a technological point of view. Few countries in the world have them. To some extent, the Storm Shadow missile can be compared with a number of Soviet (Russian) analogues - for example, with the Kalibr missile. These missiles have similar warhead power (200-300 kg) and subsonic flight speed.

However, there are significant differences: Storm Shadow is an air-launched missile. In other words, it is designed by default to be launched from air carriers of NATO countries, for example, British Tornado aircraft, French Mirages and Rafales, or European Eurofighter Typhoon fighter-bombers. These machines are not at the disposal of the Ukrainian Air Force.

Either the Ukrainian MiG-29, Su-27 and Su-24 have already been modified to use the Storm Shadow (it is necessary to upgrade the suspension units and the weapon control system), or ground launchers have been created for the Storm Shadow (especially for Ukraine). Neither of these were publicly reported. And the question remains: is it possible in principle to implement this purely technically. Nothing is said about how Ukraine will carry out target designation of these missiles.

On the other hand, it would be strange to supply Ukraine with weapons that cannot be used, and in the very near future. Moreover, it is so expensive and technologically complex.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine already have experience in using Western missiles integrated into the MiG-29 weapon control system. For example, this was done with AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles.

How can Ukraine hypothetically use Storm Shadow and against what targets exactly? Approximately the same way as Russian troops use, for example, Iskander, Kinzhal missiles or Russian air-based Storm Shadow analogues - Kh-22/32/55/101. These weapons systems are used to destroy especially important targets behind enemy lines: airfields, fuel and ammunition depots, command posts, etc.

At the moment, Ukraine regularly attacks Crimea (including the base of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol) with the help of relatively low-powered and slow-moving drones. But Storm Shadows carry 300kg of explosives and move much faster. “In principle, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can use Storm Shadow to destroy military facilities, logistics routes and destroy energy infrastructure facilities,” Kozyulin believes.

The key problem in terms of Russia's reflection of these missiles is their timely detection. Storm Shadow is a low-flying missile, which means that it can only be detected at any significant distance (at the time of launch, hundreds of kilometers) from a great height, from the air, and not from ground-based radars.

In other words, a so-called flying radar is needed. Moreover, it is necessary to ensure the constant duty of such radars in the air. For example, Russian AWACS A-50 aircraft perform this function. Thus, the colossal importance of this type of aircraft for conducting a special operation increases even more.

No less important is the operation of communication systems and the coordination of different types of troops - so that the target designation received from the A-50 on the Storm Shadow missile is instantly transmitted to air defense systems. Russian anti-aircraft missile systems "Pantsir-S1", "Buk" and others are perfectly adapted to hit just such targets. “We are able to withstand Storm Shadow - our air defense systems are ready for such challenges,” says Kozyulin.

Missiles of this class pose a real military threat only under the condition of their mass use - dozens of missiles in one salvo. In this case, it is very difficult to cope with them even with such an advanced air defense system that Russia has (and with the help of which Crimea is covered).

However, firstly, it is extremely unlikely that Britain transferred any significant amount of Storm Shadow to Ukraine. Most likely, we are talking about a maximum of several dozen missiles. And secondly, at best, the Ukrainian Air Force will be able to lift several carriers of these missiles into the air at the same time. This means that Ukraine will be able to attack Russian targets with no more than two to six missiles in one salvo. To detect and shoot them down in time is quite a feasible task for Russian air defense systems.

https://vz.ru/world/2023/5/11/1211488.html

Why did Josep Borrell quarrel with Jens Stoltenberg, by Dmitry Bavyrin for VZGLYAD. 05.11.2023.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell entered into an absentee discussion in a raised voice with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The formal reason is Ukraine's membership in the alliance, the issue of which is not up to Stoltenberg to decide. But in reality, Borrell breaks comedy for a completely different audience.

The decision on Ukraine's accession to NATO does not depend on the NATO Secretary General, but on NATO members. Ukraine's membership in NATO is not considered by them now and was not considered before the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine.

This sounded like a harsh rebuke from the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, personally to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The reason is known: earlier, Stoltenberg once again stated that “NATO’s doors remain open for Ukraine” and that all members of the alliance support Kiev’s entry into it, however, it will be possible to talk about this only after the cessation of hostilities.

Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky now agrees with the last point. But Borrell seems to be indignant at the words of the Secretary General and is not even afraid to take dirty linen out of the hut at such a crucial moment for the West.

There is something to be angry about. First of all, Stoltenberg is lying. One can speculate for a long time on the current balance of forces in the alliance for and against Ukraine's membership, but at least one country has stated that it doesn't even want to hear anything about it, and therefore there are no official consultations on membership or non-membership. This country is Hungary. That is formally right indignant Borrell.

Stoltenberg is a pretty outrageous personality in his own right. At the head office of the alliance, he represents the "hawk wing", primarily promoting the position of the United States and its Polish-Baltic satellites. With regard to Ukraine's accession to NATO, including.

But the reason for his discord with Borrell is not in this, and not even in lies. Borrell is also lying, albeit in a different manner, and is by no means a "dove", although he represents the diplomatic corps.

Gogolevsky Ivan Ivanovich and Ivan Nikiforovich (both main characters of Fyodor Dostoyevsky's piece The Eternal Husband) quarreled over a gun. But in the case of NATO members, the cause of the quarrel is not in the weapons either. Borrell and Stoltenberg fully agree with each other that the members of the associations they represent must send all the ammunition they have to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “Then we compensate,” promises Borrell.

Arguing with Stoltenberg, he defends the legend, which he, as the head of EU diplomacy, needs, but the NATO Secretary General, purely by position, does not really need it.

This is a legend that the West did not try to draw Ukraine into NATO. In other words, he did not try to create a provocative existential threat for Russia. Consequently, Russia started hostilities for no reason, and the conflict over Ukraine was not provoked by NATO members, the vast majority of which are also EU members.

The legend is false, as Russia tried to obtain legal obligations from Brussels that Ukraine's accession is indeed not considered by it, as Borrell claims, and will not be considered. Instead, the members of the alliance at a special meeting voted unanimously to refuse this demand from Russia and “leave the doors open for Ukraine.” So Stoltenberg's lies also have some formal grounds.

Based on the current words of the Secretary General, Moscow is still right: Ukraine was pulled into NATO, its entry there was only a matter of time, Russia was directly provoked by pushing the structure of the alliance to its borders and creating a casus belli for an armed conflict with it - a dispute over the status of Crimea.

“There was and is nothing of the kind,” Borrell protests, as it were, with the goal of presenting Russia as an unreasonable aggressor. He now has to repeat this in every way, answering both skeptics within the EU (like Hungary), and - what is even more important! - outside.

Questions that are extremely inconvenient for the EU are being asked by the authorities, for example, of such influential countries as Brazil and China. They tend to believe that NATO nevertheless provoked Russia, and is now busy supporting the military conflict through the supply of weapons to one of the parties.

This, by the way, is the basics of peacekeeping practice - to prevent the entry of weapons into the conflict zone. If there are no great powers involved in the conflict, this is usually what the UN does - they impose an arms embargo to force the parties to move from shots to dialogue.

The whole world, except the West, is doing the same now: from Brasilia to Beijing, from Pretoria to Belgrade, politicians say they are in favor of peace negotiations, and therefore do not supply weapons to the Ukrainian conflict zone.

Borrell, demanding that the EU members give up their last bullets to the Armed Forces, is pursuing a fundamentally different policy - the same as NATO and the United States, no matter what disagreements and image considerations cloud their union.

In the interpretation of the West, such a policy is also aimed at a peaceful settlement. It would seem nonsense, but nonsense packaged in another legend, completely dependent on the legend that Ukraine was not dragged into NATO and Russia was not provoked. Allegedly, in its unmotivated aggression, Russia will not stop in Ukraine and will go further - already to the EU through the Baltic states, so it can only be stopped by military means, here and now by the hands of Ukrainians.

It was because of this fragile propaganda construct that Ivanych and Nikiforovich quarreled. To Stoltenberg, this construct is violet: he heads the military organization and follows the course of its expansion, and he doesn’t even communicate with representatives of Brazil, China and other countries outside NATO, it’s not his concern. Borrell, on the other hand, has to get out, posing as a "bird of peace", despite the billions in allocations to the war.

His propaganda constructs no longer directly concern Russia: about ourselves, about him, about Ukraine and about NATO, we understand everything that needs to be understood. If we need anything from Borrell, then just see how he will dodge when the West's stake on the so-called counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fails, and Kiev demands new weapons, new billions and new guarantees from Brussels, including guarantees of joining NATO.

https://vz.ru/politics/2023/5/11/1211225.html

The Ministry of Defence called false reports of "defense breakthroughs" by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 05.11.2023.

Ministry of Defence: reports of defense breakthroughs by the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not true.

The Ministry of Defence published a statement after a surge of messages in the telegram channels of military correspondents about the start of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The situation in the zone of the military operation has not changed, the military department said.

Messages in telegram channels about "breakthroughs of defense" on the line of contact "do not correspond to reality." This was reported by the Russian Ministry of Defence.

“There are no active operations in the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions. The general situation in the area of ​​the special military operation is under control,” the ministry said.

The Ministry of Defence added that there were no active hostilities in the Kupyansk direction either: during the day, only the actions of Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were suppressed.

In the Donetsk direction, the military stopped three reconnaissance attempts in force and repelled eight attacks on their positions, and in the Krasnolymansk direction, they repelled two attacks by enemy company tactical groups in the areas of the settlements of Kremennaya and Chervonaya Dibrova, the department noted.

“Assault detachments continue to liberate the western part of Artemovsk with the support of aviation and artillery,” the Defence Ministry said.

Earlier, several Russian military correspondents reported on the beginning of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in telegram channels. Thus, journalist Yevgeny Poddubny wrote that the Armed Forces of Ukraine began an operation to encircle Russian forces in the Artemivsk direction, and in the Kharkov region, equipment began to move to the Kupyansk direction. The fact that "the enemy continues to put pressure on the flanks of Artyomovsk," wrote the military commander of "Komsomolskaya Pravda" Alexander Kots. They later toned down their messages.

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/11/05/2023/645d4a2f9a7947f858ec8c84

Would make this war of attrition against NATzO more favorable to the Russians if only they could muster the political will to Bomb and Destroy food supply/ storage sites in Ukraine. Starve all of Ukraine and their entire army will collapse.