Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42

JohninMK wrote:

mnztr wrote:I think the REAL reason for sending Storm Shadow is to see if Russia can detect and shoot it down. If they can the F-35, 22 B2 and B-23 are all useless.

Its an Anglo French missile. We Brits aren't putting it on our F-35 (waiting for its successor). Quite why you would mention the B-2 and B-23 is beyond me.

It is an interesting move to release it the Ukraine. If the Russians do shoot them down, as most of us here would expect I suspect, given that it is an old missile (regardless of the hype) it will put huge pressure on bringing its replacement forward. This is why it is now in Ukraine, more money for the MIC.

\

Why? Because it has a smaller radar sig then all the stealth planes. If it can be tracked and shot down then stealth is invalidated.

sepheronx wrote:I'm always impressed that the media seems to be ahead of Russian intelligence and military.  Or at least they believe so.

@franco

How many troops Russia have or speculated to have, army and rosgvardia, have in Belgorod?

The Russian military is secretive in normal times and now... sorry but not a clue. The only comment to add here is that Russian sources have often stated that there are as many troops just outside the SMO as are in it.

Interesting. Then how many troops are in the SMO then? Especially if they increased number of troops?

Magic kids, must be magic with Patriots in Kiev !




from 10/05/2023

Russian Launches Largest Ever Strike on Ukraine’s Capital Kiev: Soviet Kh-22 Missiles and Iranian Shahed 136 Drones Play Central Role
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-largest-strike-kiev-kh22-shahed136

Ukrainian officials have frequently lamented that the missiles [Kh-22], which were designed to bypass the multi layered air defences surrounding American aircraft carrier groups during the Cold War, are effectively impossible to intercept, with their large 950kg warheads causing tremendous damage.

wait so 4,6Ma Kh-22 cannot be intercepted but maneuvering 10Ma Kinzhal can be? And THAT's called magic deas rlads!

sepheronx wrote:Interesting.  Then how many troops are in the SMO then? Especially if they increased number of troops?

100k perhaps from the original squad.

150k from mobilized troops per Dec 2022 Putin (77k in combat units)


another 150k from mobilization were in training in Dec 2022

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/35918

dionis wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Interesting.  Then how many troops are in the SMO then? Especially if they increased number of troops?

100k perhaps from the original squad.

150k from mobilized troops per Dec 2022 Putin (77k in combat units)


another 150k from mobilization were in training in Dec 2022

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/35918

That is of course not volunteer units as well.

Then we need to take into consideration Rosgvardia as they are also protecting the borders too.

I counted about forty main Roads and Rail lines . Easy to cut them .

Easy?

I am guessing these roads and rail lines are close to the borders of HATO countries... the orcs currently have significant numbers of HATO design Air defence systems, HATO countries could concentrate their own systems near the border of Ukraine too and they could all work to try to defend those roads and rail lines if they start coming under air attack.

Equally any direct hit on a rail line or road a detour road or rail like can be built around the damage while the damage is being repaired... you keep hitting them and they keep building them...

Best case scenario that you succeed and HATO will likely cry crocodile tears for the Ukrainian people they really don't give a shit about and they will set up an air corridor and an airlift like they did in Berlin (for germans they likely still hated anyway).

The result will be large numbers of transport planes delivering food and goods to civilians in the Ukraine for humanitarian reasons... and of course plenty of ammo and weapons and fuel etc etc etc but they wont talk about that or show that...

Then Russia has to decide whether to shoot those planes down or not... which might result in HATO sending fighters to escort these aircraft and then HATO is directly involved but they will claim as a humanitarian actor and not part of the war between Russia and Kiev...

You know the west... they are full of shit.

Naval attack possible with 5000 small landing craft , and air support . IMHO . Iran has 40,000 small attack craft , each carry missiles and five crew .

Wouldn't work. Those missiles and any guns or other heavy weapons they have on those small boats could not be taken ashore with them so they are fine till they get to the beach or pier and then they are too lightly armed and enemy artillery will smash them on the beaches.

Russian Naval infantry are fully motorised and armoured...

The secret is don't try to land at a the port you are attacking... land further down the coast line... get ashore and form up and then attack from the land while your ships move and support you from the sea as you take the port. If you can take an airfield too then you can land vehicles and equipment too...

Communication with friendly forces in the port can make things easier and quicker... but a huge counter offensive elsewhere by the Orcs will drag the gung ho nutters out of the city to the point where those remaining might change sides and spare the city from being destroyed... and things might be made rather easier.

But perhaps that was part of the plan to start off with and didn't really work so well.

But then after a year of war perhaps peace might be more attractive to them.

Anyone with a brain already knows the only response will be a strongly worded social media rant by Medvedev

Perhaps Argentina wants new weapons to lease very cheaply while cheap energy supplies from Russia might help boost their economy along with BRICS... just to get them on their feet.

With a range of over 500km such a weapon transfer violates international agreements on missile exports... maybe a two stage Iskander with a range of maybe 2,000km from a ground launch might be what Argentina and Iran need...

Latest Yuri reports says Ukraine is ow attacking on 3 axes on the flanks of Bakhmut

It does not say what they are doing, it clearly says what he thinks they might do... very different.

250km version is not that dangerous, and 500km version UK will probably not send because Russians could get their hands on its flight control computer.

Russia isn't some third world shit hole... if they detect a launch they could send an EW aircraft to shadow it and EMP it and see if they can get it to crash intact...

Those same fanboizz that for 8 long years babbled about how Russia wouldn't need Ukraine as it was winning on the Grand Chessboard anyway.

Russia doesn't want the Ukraine, this is about eliminating a threat.

If Kiev weren't a bunch of nazi cock suckers there would be no problem.

And when that turned out that be as retarded a take as possible, they flip-flopped instantly to predicting the RAF would be in Kiev in no less then 14 days due to incessant consumption of Kremlin propaganda - which all obviously turned out to be fake.

Nobody mentioned any timetable... you are confusing the Russians for the Americans... didn't Allbright think Kosovo would be over in a week...

Unfortunately its now day 441 and Russia is stuck on all fronts with extremely worrying reports coming out of desertion/insubordination of regular Russian units on both flanks of the Bakhmut cauldron.

Russia is not stuck... it is killing lots of Orcs every day and is letting them come to them... into a partially surrounded area that they can shell those coming in and those trying to leave.

I swear to God if the Russian military/political leadership let's this slide (like they led everything slide before) they deserve everything that's coming their way.

You have been bitching about everything they did since day one... why do you expect to be pleased now?

Ugh, how many rats suddenly appear on the forum.

Something might be about to happen... all the agents have been activated...

they cannot move that in volume off road. Even if they took out the rails and put some nice 15 ft craters on the highways it would stop things pretty fast.

Roads and rail lines across the land can be replaced in hours even with 15ft deep craters in it...

I wonder if the Russian government here has an actual end game in mind, or if they are just winging it.

Of course they do, but it is not going to involve the west in any way or the current Ukrainian government... which have proven they can't be trusted.

The new Ukrainian state... whatever it ends up being called will have nothing to do with the west.

Ukraine easily has 2.5M men (probably multiples more) to kill, and even if Russia can kill 200,000 per year, it'll take over a decade to do. Makes no sense.

Don't need to kill them all for them to change their minds about fighting Americas war.

Really all it actually needs is an election in the US and for Biden to not be president.

Which I would say is rather likely.

So what's the play here, hope for an internal coup? Zelensky and Co have a very good grip on things - there is nothing of the sort even beginning to emerge.

The brutality of Zelensky and those behind him make a coup rather more likely rather than less likely... but you need to take out the whole power structure and not just the figurehead.

If Russian airfields are hit successfully by british built missiles and any part of the Russian triad is damaged, Putin will literally have no choice other than to escalate this war.

The UK and Americans have claimed that Kiev has promised not to hit actual Russian territory.

Personally I think some practise defeating this weapon is going to be very useful for the Russians and when they buy a couple of them they might learn they are smoke and mirrors or they might learn there is some substance which will only make their defences better.

^ Sending German tanks to Belgorod and announcing the transfer of UK cruise missiles to Ukraine on the same day.

This is what the Anglo satanist swine does. They cant help themselves. Peak escalation is here. This is why I was talking about nukes a week ago.

Perhaps they are applying this pressure because the threat of new offensives is getting delayed and is not working any more...

Apart from extreme accuracy, the second element of Storm Shadow’s effectiveness is the sophisticated warhead it carries, the Bomb, Royal Ordnance Augmenting CHarge (BROACH).

Already seen such warheads on Russian missiles too.

Kh-59 upgraded model with shaped charge precursors to blow holes into structures for the main HE round to enter and destroy...

THE most retarded plan in human history and everyone could have told those foetal alcohol syndrome specimens that

They still went with it, God bless their feeble minded hearts

If it had worked everyone would be in awe at how they achieved their goals with so little bloodshed... only the Minsk agreements would have been better on that score... but the snow nazis wanted to die and expected to take all of Russia with them... but it hasn't happened that way so far.

British cruise missiles will only be able to harm Russia if they are used en masse.

Which presents a huge opportunity and also explains why they were trying to take out A-50s with drones too.

To launch in large numbers they will need lots of planes.... perhaps six R-37Ms per Su-35 and four R-77s as well as a couple of R-74s as a loadout.

We are talking about British-made high-precision long-range air-launched cruise missiles (CRBMs)

How did Air Launched Cruise Missile turn into CRBM?

It should be ALCM.

you drop bombs and mines. you can do this every day. When they show up to repair you bomb it and kill the crews.

Repeated attacks would become more risky and this is low skill repair work, such crews could be easily replaced...

Why? Because it has a smaller radar sig then all the stealth planes. If it can be tracked and shot down then stealth is invalidated.

Americans will claim their stealth is better than European stealth... America makes stealth fighters and stealth bombers, while Europe makes stealth missiles only.

wait so 4,6Ma Kh-22 cannot be intercepted but maneuvering 10Ma Kinzhal can be? And THAT's called magic deas rlads!

Kh-22 is probably closer to mach 3.5, while the Kh-32 based on the same missile shape is mach 4.5, and Kinzhal... which is an air launched Iskander is probably mach 9-10.

The core point is that the Kh-22 and Kh-32 as well as the Iskander are intended to defeat layered integrated air defence networks and heavy SAM sites so they are designed to penetrate enemy air defences and have sensors and decoys and equipment and programming to manouver to make themselves as hard as possible to intercept while approaching its target... which makes all four (Kh-22, Kh-32, Iskander, Kinzhal... which are essentially two modifications of two different missiles) rather hard to stop.

dionis wrote:I wonder if the Russian government here has an actual end game in mind, or if they are just winging it.

The war of attrition strategy won't work. Ukraine easily has 2.5M men (probably multiples more) to kill, and even if Russia can kill 200,000 per year, it'll take over a decade to do. Makes no sense.

So what's the play here, hope for an internal coup? Zelensky and Co have a very good grip on things - there is nothing of the sort even beginning to emerge.

This is big spot on - Russia does not have any de-escalation plan and that is main fuel for this war as well as biggest weakness. Because of that Russia is seen as real threat not only to Ukraine but also to Baltics, Poland, Nordics but also countries like Moldavia, Romania etc... so it is not so simple.

The window and original plan was to do blitzkrieg, take half of the country, force government to collapse or to go into exile and to put puppet pro Russian government in Kyiv. This should happen in 3-6 months time.

We now know that this spectacularly failed.

Ukraine kept standing, government refused to collapse or leave the capital etc...

And now 15 months later Ukraine is the most important country security wise on overall Euro Asian supercontinent.

It is not just NATO or US puppet either. It is evolving on its own path. And it is getting stronger and more capable in military aspects.

No country in the world was able to do so fast transformation and adoption of so complex and different weapons systems in such short time as Ukraine. It is unheard of.

Russia is now forced to go into grinding strategy, it is old USSSR strategy for example used against Finland in II world war. However it is very old/known strategy. Ukraine is much larger compared to Finland, has bigger resources and is also daughter of the USSSR - they are quite well suitable to fight such strategy - thus we will not see any yield nor compromise on their side, they are ready to run this marathon if needed for decades or longer... they would also not be intimated for example with nuclear attack threat, if needed Ukraine will develop its own nuclear weapons and delivery systems so good luck to Russian plans and ways out of this.

@ GarryB

Good to know that naval infantry assault has not been ruled out , and that Russia does have armoured naval craft for this purpose . Regarding interdiction of supplies to Ukrs , it need not involve Aircraft . It could be done by missiles and Drones . I posted a YouTube video of old buried WW2 bomb , needing excavation work , that would block a Road . A missile warhead , could be adapted to bury itself in the Road , and be on time trigger . Programmed to go off , in a time interval shorter than the time it takes to excavate or neutralise it . Similarly trains themselves could be hit , by small drone that targets wheels of locomotive , while in motion ! Area denial weapons can destroy runways for planes carrying " humanitarian " supplies , without hitting the plane itself . Or electronic warfare can target supply plane , without killing anyone . A kind of soft attack . Cost / benefit will be hugely in favour . I don't see any rapid increase in risk of escalation with USA , beyond what is already happening now .

This is big spot on - Russia does not have any de-escalation plan and that is main fuel for this war as well as biggest weakness.

Russia knows the only way to satisfy the west is capitulation and so that will never be an option, which is actually a strength.

The west is doing this to save face, but for Russia this is survival.

Russia could offer the west a face saving out and it would be over but Russia does not want the west off the hook either... because they will just fall back to all the same games again and the problem will come back again.

Because of that Russia is seen as real threat not only to Ukraine but also to Baltics, Poland, Nordics but also countries like Moldavia, Romania etc... so it is not so simple.

Who gives a **** what those morons think... they are loser countries whose reason for being is to hate Russia or fear Russia... and for what.

They think about Russia night and day and think they want to invade and occupy them.

The reality is that Russia could care less and if Ukraine had minded its own business and didn't have bio weapons labs and was not building up its military to invade separatist regions and was not talking about wanting nuclear weapons this would not be happening... but then Ukraine has been a US state since the US paid for coup in 2014.

Putin has made mistakes and his biggest mistake was recognising the results of the US coup in Kiev... when opposition parties were banned and only nazi and pro US parties remained they stopped being a democracy.

We now know that this spectacularly failed.

Who knew Ukrainian men were so keen to die on the battlefield for the Biden family legacy.

Ukraine kept standing, government refused to collapse or leave the capital etc...

Ukraine is a 120 year old man connected to about five life support machines.... as Borrell said... when that is turned off the patient dies in minutes.

And now 15 months later Ukraine is the most important country security wise on overall Euro Asian supercontinent.

Rubbish. When it collapses and gets swallowed up it will be forgotten in the west as quickly as Afghanistan and Iraq and Syria and Libya were...

It is not just NATO or US puppet either. It is evolving on its own path. And it is getting stronger and more capable in military aspects.

It is totally dependent on the west and would collapse dead when support stops... which could be at the next US election.

No country in the world was able to do so fast transformation and adoption of so complex and different weapons systems in such short time as Ukraine. It is unheard of.

It should have been the strongest military in Europe and a small fragment of Russian forces broke it in a month or two... it was going to surrender when Boris Johnson intervened...

It has no air power and no armour to speak of and its best artillery is Soviet based stuff still.

Russia is now forced to go into grinding strategy, it is old USSSR strategy for example used against Finland in II world war.

Russia was always using a grinding strategy because most of the military units in the Ukraine were nazi based so killing them was useful no matter how the conflict goes.

Ukraine is much larger compared to Finland, has bigger resources and is also daughter of the USSSR - they are quite well suitable to fight such strategy - thus we will not see any yield nor compromise on their side, they are ready to run this marathon if needed for decades or longer... they would also not be intimated for example with nuclear attack threat, if needed Ukraine will develop its own nuclear weapons and delivery systems so good luck to Russian plans and ways out of this.

Comparing Ukrainian forces with Finlands forces is a joke, the Fins were mostly hunters and fishermen or professional soldiers who knew how to operate in forests and the open... half of Kievs forces never had to wipe their own noses before being conscripted.

BTW Finland never had to put up with being on the receiving end of a 10 to one kill ratio and to continue fighting.

A key factor is that the Fins were honourable and could be trusted with agreements, while Kiev and the US cannot.

I posted a YouTube video of old buried WW2 bomb , needing excavation work , that would block a Road . A missile warhead , could be adapted to bury itself in the Road , and be on time trigger . Programmed to go off , in a time interval shorter than the time it takes to excavate or neutralise it . Similarly trains themselves could be hit , by small drone that targets wheels of locomotive , while in motion

The Russians have been very careful to avoid civilian casualties... I can't see them destroying roads and trucks and trains and rail lines like that, because if there are food shortages how is the civilian population supposed to flee to the west?

they are ready to run this marathon

We are not even at the 10km mark and "Ukraine" and the glory west are done.

We now know that this spectacularly failed.

So the Kremlin and the General Staff released all their secret plans they had before the operation started?
Otherwise we all know shit about them.

government refused to collapse or leave the capital

Whole regime went to Poland for weeks.

Russia is now forced to go into grinding strategy

That was the plan from the beginning. De-militarizing NATO.

Only way to really damage railways:

mr_hd: a uniquely slithery post. Stating that Ukraine is not a puppet and is "uniquely evolving on it's own" would have been amusing to hear six months ago. Now it is just disgusting and angering.  Please pull these glownigger opinions from your neovagina on some nafo twatter account, not here please. And to those dooming right at the cusp of a potential counter offensive i find it interesting and rather disturbing.

There is much we do not understand. If I were ruskie MOD right now I'd ask Putin to make a statement to the press which said essentially that if any stormshadow missile were launched on Crimea or Russian territory that it would be an act of war and that sadly nuclear weapons would then be readied for use. I would say that things are indeed desperate and ugly and that we feel compelled to defend ourselves even with our most powerful resources.

But I am not the Russian MOD or Putin. There is much going on we clearly do not know or understand. What that justifies or entails is totally unknown to us. So all doomer posting screams panic to me. That, or there are some here with malevolent connections to gov or quasi gov agencies, or at least NGOs. Dont think this is a reality? Then you are exceedingly naive, and even an English language Russian defense forum like this is most assuredly in their crosshairs. I'd suggest to those who are honest cowards to beware what you post. Particularly here in America or other 5I nations as it is noted and if our governments get more despotic we might eventually pay for what we say.

I could care less what the rainbow flag waving pederasts in government bureaus think. I'm a patriot, but my idea of patriotism does not include love or league with neocon pretenders or their quisling servants. Ruskies are in the right in this conflict. Many things are going on that we do not understand. There are some guesses we can make. Either Russian MOD has some trump cards, or see things we dont see and think eventual resolution without total war is possible, or something in Russian gov and MOD is haywire and shit is really, really bad. I dont think this is the case, but I definitely see it as a possibility as we spend as much on CIA budget as european nations spend in their entire defense budgets, and spook backed NGOs working with the CIA, MI6 and private Intel agencies rake in hundreds of millions each year.

The key to everything I am saying is that there is 97 percent of the details and background of all this that we DO NOT know. We can only sit back and watch as it all unfolds, for good or for worse. I highly suggest we all prepare accordingly. Do you know some of the details and scandals of the neocons and neolibs here in power? Do you realize how ideologically deluded most of them are? If you knew, you would not sleep well some nights. I know I dont.

There is some doomer posting for you.

Random pic



Meat grinder 2.0

owais.usmani 

I'm shocked. I thought you were always critical of stuff but never thought you supported the neocon/neolib party line. My respect for anything you previously posted has gone down the shitter. You think that Ukraine is not a puppet state and is "evolving in it's own path"? Fascinating.

If it truly followed it's own path, where would western funding and support go? One EU plutocrat openly admitted that if western funding and weapon support ceased that Ukraine would collapse in days. Does this scream independence and a "path of evolution all its own"?

Glad you doomers exposed yourselves. Polishers of neocon/neolib reproductive organs (or horrific aftermath of vaginoplasties). Shameful swallowers of rancid msm propaganda. Shameful time wasters trying to impact the beliefs of some randos like me and others on a Russian defense forum. Why not go be more productive shills on twitter or telegram?

The Russian Defense Ministry reported that 26 Ukrainian attacks were repulsed in the Soledar tactical direction. There were no breakthroughs in the defense of the Russian troops. This was stated by the official representative of the defense department Igor Konashenkov.

More than 1,000 Ukrainian fighters, about 40 tanks, as well as other military and special equipment were involved in the attacks.

In the Maloiliinovsky direction, units of the "Southern" group of Russian troops occupied the line, taking into account the favorable conditions of the Berkhovskoye reservoir. Servicemen of the 4th and 200th motorized rifle brigades, army aviation crews and other units courageously showed themselves in repelling enemy attacks. More than 540 nationalists, eight tanks and more than 20 other armored vehicles were destroyed in this direction.

Earlier, the gunners of the "Southern" group of Russian troops in the Maryinsky direction thwarted the enemy's attempt to conduct a counterattack. The divisions of the Ukrainian nationalists suffered significant losses, and the Russian troops did not allow the loss of their positions.

https://tvzvezda-ru.translate.goog/news/20235121320-EEw3C.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB&_x_tr_pto=nui&_x_tr_hist=true

I am guessing these roads and rail lines are close to the borders of HATO countries... the orcs currently have significant numbers of HATO design Air defence systems, HATO countries could concentrate their own systems near the border of Ukraine too and they could all work to try to defend those roads and rail lines if they start coming under air attack. Equally any direct hit on a rail line or road a detour road or rail like can be built around the damage while the damage is being repaired... you keep hitting them and they keep building them... Best case scenario that you succeed and HATO will likely cry crocodile tears for the Ukrainian people they really don't give a shit about and they will set up an air corridor and an airlift like they did in Berlin (for germans they likely still hated anyway). The result will be large numbers of transport planes delivering food and goods to civilians in the Ukraine for humanitarian reasons... and of course plenty of ammo and weapons and fuel etc etc etc but they wont talk about that or show that... Then Russia has to decide whether to shoot those planes down or not... which might result in HATO sending fighters to escort these aircraft and then HATO is directly involved but they will claim as a humanitarian actor and not part of the war between Russia and Kiev... You know the west... they are full of shit. wrote:

You really think NATO will shoot missiles across the border at Russian planes? I doubt it. NATO transports delivering food to Kiev? Take out the Runway and destroy the planes on the ground. With glide bombs they can take out the road and rail. Even if NATO is forced to fly stuff in, the logistics cost imposed on them will be MASSIVE. And as i said Russia can disable airports which they could not do in West Berlin. The failure to make any meaningful effort at interdiction is perplexing. Its been a puzzling gap in this campaign.

https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/volodymyr-oleksandrovychs-last-dance
Good article

The doom whores are on another offensive. Some alleged footage of some alleged retreat by Z forces of some sort ended up on telegram. And nobody knew what it was until good ol Rybar confirmed it and geo located it. Well done D bags. This happens every day on the fronts by both sides. But retards like Rybar make sure it gets rubbed in good and hard. Shut the fuckers down

Actually, I see it as important. It gives confusion to both the enemy and Russian locals who may be assisting Ukraine. Add to it, it also lights a fire under Russian leadership asses to actually do something.

Russia is calculative for sure. But sometimes they need to strike hard and push forward. But this game right now is building defense lines and waiting for Ukraines "counter offensive". I actually do believe the theories that Ukraines offensive is gonna be split up on various directions in order to cause panick umong the Russian military command. Mind you I think they themselves are prepared for this. But honestly, sometimes it's better for Russia to go on the offensive to break any kind of attempt of a counter offensive - strike at Kharkov region and push forward there. This may force Ukriane to divert forces in that area that would have been otherwise used in an offensive.

In any case, Rybars job is important. And if the initial reports months ago were correct that Rybar is collaborating with Russian MoD then it's really important and acts as an arm of Intel from Russia.

^ I don't think highlighting propaganda own-goals is particularly helpful.

Backman wrote:^ I don't think highlighting propaganda own-goals is particularly helpful.

Then you aren't thinking hard enough.

The Russians could have pulled back from position so the enemy moves and and gets hit harder. For example. We get one piece of news.

Also your comment completely ignores last part of what I said, about lighting fire under leadership ass with mention of failures.