Russia and economic war by the west #3

FT reports 'astonishing growth' in Russian consumer spending, 07.26.2024.

FT: Despite sanctions, wages and consumer spending are growing in Russia.

The Russian economy has managed to adapt to sanctions, and local businesses are experiencing a real boom amid government support and the departure of Western competitors, the FT writes. However, the experts surveyed did not rule out a slowdown in growth this year.

After the start of the special operation in Ukraine and the introduction of tough sanctions, many Russians feared an economic collapse, but it never happened - on the contrary, the Russian economy demonstrated stability, and businesses managed to restructure and start earning more than before, writes the Financial Times (FT), citing statistical data and interviewed Russian businessmen and experts.

Thus, St Petersburg restaurateur Anton (name changed) told the FT that immediately after the sanctions were introduced, interest rates soared, and most locals did not have time to eat out. However, as the newspaper notes, the situation has changed over the past two years: “Russians are swimming in extra money and are eagerly awaiting the opportunity to part with it.”

The FT cites Rosstat data showing that real wages in Russia have grown by almost 14%, while consumption of goods and services has grown by around 25%. In 2024, according to the Russian Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting of the Slowdown, real wages are expected to grow further by 3.5%, as well as an increase in real disposable income by 3%.

At the same time, the unemployment rate, which was 7–8% in 2022, is now at a record low for the entire post-Soviet period – 2.6%.

As the newspaper notes, the rise in wages in Russia is most likely linked to a “thriving military industry,” which is pushing civilian businesses to raise them “at a time of acute labor shortages.” “As a result, Russia has suddenly found itself at the center of a consumer spending boom,” the article says.

"Real wages [in Russia] are rising rapidly. You have people who were earning next to nothing before the full-scale invasion... who suddenly have huge amounts of money," said Janis Kluge, an expert on the Russian economy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

Today, the "explosive growth" of wages is felt in all socio-economic spheres, radically changing the lives of many workers, writes the FT. Thus, if in 2021 weavers in Russia earned an average of $250-350 per month, now they earn about $1.4 thousand, said political scientist Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva. At the same time, the average salary of truck drivers, according to her, has increased by 38% year-on-year.

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/26/07/2024/66a365f49a7947d32f72a9c2

Part of the spending was put on hold because of missing goods.
If you were about buying a new car back in 2022, and found out that the models you targeted are out of your radar anymore - you usually don't go and buy a sub segment piece.
Now, Russkie automotive market is calmly rising.
The same applies to other consumer products. They had just held the horses for a while until the situation stabilized.
It won't only recover, but cumulated a peak in spending as soon as new possibilities arrived.

A funny fact : VAG group is out of Russia. Does it mean that no VAG cars are being sold there?
Sure those are.
As private import.
Or even more interesting way : those are JETTA brand.
Jetta is an old name of one of VW models that was used for the Chinese market of less expensive VAG models.
So salons are back working with China-made Jetta cars, which are nothing else rather than VW and Skoda models
Still it took a while to reopen the business which will work as usual now on.

Russia is being built on the ruins of Britain, by Sergey Savchuk for RiaNovosti. 07.30.2024.

We will again be accused of clumsy Russian propaganda, but what can we do? The Telegraph reports that Great Britain has for the first time in its history dropped out of the top ten countries in terms of industrial potential, falling to 12th place in the world ranking. The empire, on which the sun had not set not so long ago, has let Mexico, France, Italy and even the island of Taiwan, that is, the former Spanish-Dutch colony, pass ahead. The authors are particularly horrified by the fact that Russia has nestled in eighth place in the same list, that is, our domestic real sector is demonstrating dynamics that cannot be distorted even with a great desire.

Modern economic theory defines the concept of industrial potential of a state (region) as the combined ability of all enterprises in the country to create and produce competitive products, successfully promote them on the market, sell them at a profit, and also ensure an appropriate level of service.

In clear and simple terms, this is the ability to develop and establish industrial production of, say, electric cars. At the same time, the produced "electric cars" must be competitive in price and quality, in demand by buyers, their sale must bring profit to the enterprise and taxes to the state, and the plant itself must guarantee a full cycle of repair, maintenance and ongoing modernization of this vehicle.

Industrial potential is calculated using a formula that adds up the cost of fixed assets, the cost of personnel, the cost of technology, and the cost of information. So, experts have calculated that last year Great Britain produced goods and services worth 259 billion dollars (200 billion pounds), while in France the same figure was 265, in Italy - 283, and in Russia - 287 billion dollars. And this is despite the fact that just a quarter of a century ago the British were among the top five most powerful industrial countries on the planet.

Analysts note a boom in production in Mexico, which is ranked just ahead of Russia with $316 billion. The reason for the growth is said to be the mass transfer of production to this country, with American companies opening workshops and labs there, seeking to minimize operating costs, and their Chinese competitors working for the US market . Taiwan has traditionally stayed afloat due to the mass production of chips - in the modern world of all-consuming electronics, they are snapped up like hot cakes and contracts are scheduled for years in advance.

At the top of the industrial pyramid are the United States (their trade turnover exceeds 2.7 trillion dollars) and China . The Celestial Empire has no competitors even on the distant horizon, annually churning out goods worth five trillion dollars. Incidentally, this is an extremely important point, which American financiers are already writing about, assessing the chances and prospects of a new trade war between Washington and Beijing in the event of Donald Trump's election . If the first round of this cross-border wrestling began with an imbalance in mutual trade of about 250 billion dollars in China's favour, today it is already estimated at a minimum of 400 billion, and as we can see, in terms of gross indicators of the real sector, China has broken away from the United States by an unattainable distance.

At the same time, Great Britain, with which our conversation began today, can "boast" of closing its last steel mill and legendary shipyard. In the first case, we are talking about the metallurgical plant of the Indian Tata Steel , the company's management decided to shut down the last furnaces of the Port Talbot plant in South Wales due to unaffordable production costs, including the many times higher price of electricity. The second example is the shipyard in Belfast , where the legendary Titanic and its twin brother Olympic came off the slipways a century ago. Harland & Wolff, the company that owns the shipyard, held long and unsuccessful negotiations with the government in the hope of receiving state support to cover the accumulated debts of 200 million pounds, but London had more important items of expenditure. At the moment, Harland & Wolff has brought in specialists from the Rothschild Foundation to help save the company, but even British sources are writing that the case is heading towards bankruptcy – and not formally, but physically, in which the staff is being thrown out the gates and the machines are being sold for scrap to pay off the accounts payable.

Here we could savour the figures and gloat for a long time, but we will not. Let us just note that the current result of Great Britain is the end point of a whole series of political decisions, the first of which was Brexit. While the terms of Great Britain's exit from the EU were being discussed and while details like the procedure for customs clearance of goods imported to Northern Ireland from Republican Ireland were being ironed out , official London did not hide the fact that it was aiming to distance itself from the eurozone and its problems. The bigwigs from the City and the dodgers from Westminster expected that, separated by the Strait, they would close themselves off from migration and, as always, would skim the rich cream exclusively thanks to their banking and other financial instruments. This, by the way, is one of the basic pillars of the modern neoliberal ideology of post-industrial society. The concept implies that dirty production will be moved to some third world countries with super-cheap labor, and first-tier countries will receive dividends from this, building an ecologically clean society of the future.

The reality is that in the cauldron of the stormy world economy, everyone is saving themselves as best they can, and the countries that have placed their bets on their real sector have the best chances here. In Russia, the accelerated military-industrial complex and construction industry are helping in this regard.

In conclusion, I would like to quote the immortal classic - "his example is a lesson to others", because smart people learn from the mistakes of others. You can talk a lot and beautifully about the restoration of industry, but this process is long and includes many stages. We need to start with the introduction of mass and high-quality technical education, but this is useless if there is no return demand from applicants. That is, we also need the broadest work to popularize blue-collar and scientific specialties, develop or purchase advanced technologies, work out the resource base, build optimal energy chains and much more. The work is hard, long and complex. And Russia should already now take the necessary steps to maintain positive trends. The SVO will end sooner or later, and our economy will need other reliable drivers of industrial growth.

The reality is that in the cauldron of the stormy world economy, everyone is saving themselves as best they can, and the countries that have placed their bets on their real sector have the best chances here. In Russia, the accelerated military-industrial complex and construction industry are helping in this regard.

https://ria.ru/20240730/velikobritaniya-1962801162.html

At the top of the industrial pyramid are the United States (their trade turnover exceeds 2.7 trillion dollars wrote:

USA at the top of the most industrialized countries? Is this some kind of joke?

Rise phase: Russia knocks Western 'giant' out of top ten countries, by Natalia Dembinskaya for RiaNovosti. 08.07.2024.

Industrial production boom continues in Russia.

MOSCOW, August 7 — RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinskaya. In the list of industrially developed economies, Britain fell from eighth to 12th place and gave way to Russia in the top 10. Why this happened — in the RIA Novosti article.

Out of the top ten

According to an analysis by the British association of manufacturing sectors Make UK , Russia and Mexico have pulled ahead. As the Times specifies , these countries took eighth and seventh places respectively. China and the USA retained their leadership.

Experts attribute London's failure to the "reshaping of the contours" of the global economy and the lack of a "long-term industrial strategy" in contrast to other major countries such as Germany, China and the United States.

Britain is the only one of the world's most industrialised countries that does not have a plan for its manufacturing sectors, analysts have found.

And there is no basis for a positive forecast, including for the "advanced" manufacturing industries, experts from the University of Sheffield point out.

"The decline in manufacturing jobs has been reversed over the past five years, but this may simply be a short-term 'bounce back' from the catastrophic decline of the previous decade, exacerbated by the 2008 economic crisis. Moreover, we appear to be witnessing a new phenomenon: the UK is creating low-skilled jobs without increasing manufacturing capacity," the study's authors write.

Political miscalculations

According to the university's analysts, leaving the EU will continue to put pressure on the country's real sector in the coming years. Trade barriers with key European partners and a decline in investment are possible.

"The exclusion from the rating is due, on the one hand, to the growth of industry in competing countries, and on the other hand, to problems in our own industry. Among them is the severance of economic ties with Russia, in particular the refusal of oil and natural gas. Such political miscalculations could not help but have an impact," says Leonid Khazanov, an independent industrial expert.

The pace has doubled

Russia has been showing positive dynamics since March 2023.

Activity in the real sector has risen to record levels in 2017, and the rate of employment growth is the highest since 2000.

The main contribution was made by the manufacturing industry - plus 7.5 percent. The overall figure for 2023 is 3.5 percent.

In the first half of 2024, according to Rosstat, the industry added another 4.4 percent (in 2023 it was 2.1).

Analysts at Make UK attributed the boost to "the unprecedented growth of the defence industry, which accounts for more than six per cent of the country's GDP".

However, in addition to state defence orders, import substitution and localization of production played an important role.

Not only the military-industrial complex

The leaders are mainly medium- and high-tech enterprises. In particular, the production of computers, electronic and optical products. The disruption of supplies from abroad stimulated the modernization of the production and technological base and ensured maximum capacity utilization. Promising niches opened up for domestic goods.

In April, the HSE ISSEK Center for Market Research published the results of a survey on the progress of import substitution in industry. It turned out that in 2023, compared to 2022, the process accelerated for 36 percent of enterprises.

In 2024, according to production managers' forecasts, this will continue for 47 percent of companies producing electrical equipment, 44 percent of companies producing motor vehicles and trailers, and 40 percent of companies producing other finished products. In the pharmaceutical industry, there are 47 percent of such enterprises, in petrochemistry - 42 percent, in the mining industry as a whole - 42 percent, in oil and gas - 30 percent.

As the HSE emphasized, judging by the assessments of the demand for import substitution, enterprises are "deeply involved in the process." Almost 30 percent note low dependence on imports.

"Phase of new rise"

In the first half of the year, the manufacturing industry also made the main positive contribution: plus eight percent. The leaders in growth were the production of finished metal products (except for machinery and equipment, 36.1 percent), the production of computers, electronic and optical products (35), motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (27.4).

A special item is passenger cars. If in 2022, against the backdrop of the departure of Western brands, there was a 2.5-fold drop, then in 2023 there was an increase of almost 20 percent. And now it is 62.2.

Records are also set in the field of radar equipment and remote control equipment - 65.7 percent, navigation devices - 45.2. Assembly of diesel locomotives - 45.7, mainline freight cars - 40.4 percent. And even beet sugar - 41.7.

As experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) pointed out , since February the country has been experiencing a "new recovery phase." They attributed about two-thirds of the growth to market factors - the simultaneous completion of large orders in the metal products sector and the restoration of petroleum product production.

For example, in March there were the best results in almost 18 years. The global S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 55.7 - the highest since August 2006. More than 50 means growth, less - decline.

Capacity loading

The utilisation rate at factories in the second quarter rose to 80.9 percent, the Bank of Russia reported in the July issue of "Monitoring of Enterprises". The data is based on regularly conducted (since 2000) surveys in the non-financial sector. The sample includes 14.5 thousand enterprises.

"This is a new historical maximum," the Central Bank emphasizes. In the first quarter it was 80.3.

In particular, in the extraction of minerals - 82.6 percent, in the manufacturing sector - 75.6, in construction - 77.7.

The Bank of Russia points out that enterprises “modernized production in the context of a reorientation toward domestic demand and the activation of import substitution programmes.”

All this was accompanied by increased investment activity. According to estimates, this is the maximum since 2009, the regulator notes. Now the balance of responses is about nine points; two years ago it was in the negative zone, at minus four, and in the middle of the Covid 2020 - minus eight.

Went beyond the limits

Western analysts admit that the Russian economy is growing, and this has long since gone beyond the “defence” boom.


Thus, the country received higher than expected revenues from oil and gas: sanctions on fuel prices largely failed. The federal budget last year was replenished by 8.82 trillion rubles due to this sector - 822 billion less was expected.

Due to Western sanctions, companies are investing heavily in re-equipping production lines.

In the first quarter, according to Rosstat, investments in fixed capital increased by 14.5 percent year-on-year to 5.93 trillion rubles ($66.2 billion).

https://ria.ru/20240807/promyshlennost-1964477216.html

Putin has finally upset the West, by Kirill Strelnikov for RiaNovosti. 09.05.2024.

The whole world is waiting in anticipation of great news: judging by the sour reaction of Western media to Vladimir Putin's speech at the Eastern Economic Forum, record figures for the production of fermented milk products with the label "Made in a Magic Garden" are expected in the near future.

Everything was going exactly according to plan: prominent Western politicians were lovingly stroking the lists of sanctions and skeins of blue insulation, brilliant economists were staring at their stopwatches counting down the moments until the collapse of the Russian economy, gold-starred NATO staff officers were estimating how many concentration camps were needed for the Russian army, which was almost surrendering, and the best political strategists were anticipating the "Marches of the Sextillions" that were about to sweep away Putin's vile and inhuman regime.

Overall, it was expected that the Russian president's speech would be a kind of "soft capitulation", something between "I'm tired, I'm leaving" and "I was wrong, where's your cash register?"

Well, really, how could it be any other way? The collective West was so confident in its own strength and Russia's weakness that the main question was always the same: not if, but when Russia would surrender. This confidence was best expressed a year and a half ago, in February 2023, by the American publication CNN in a major article entitled "The West's Hardest Task in Ukraine Is Explaining to Putin That He's Lost."

In the end, Putin went to meet us halfway and today quietly, using facts and his fingers, explained what Russia thinks about its sad prospects, lovingly painted by the West.

The facts are simple, concrete and irrefutable.

The global hegemony of the West is irreversibly becoming a thing of the past. Russia can easily live without the West, but the West cannot live without Russia. Having finally become convinced that the collective West is blinded by Russophobia and has relied on endless confrontation instead of cooperation, Russia has made a strategic turn to the east and south, where the majority of the Earth's population is concentrated and where the center of world politics and economics will shift in the foreseeable future: "This task will certainly be accomplished." The Russian Far East, due to its capabilities and strategic geographical location, is called upon to become a flagship in the new global economic reality, and the development of the region is our priority for the entire 21st century. This is not a forced measure caused by a unilateral severance of ties at the initiative of Western countries, but a consequence of objective trends that are gaining strength in the global economy.

Russia's position is supported by more and more countries, including the world's most powerful economies. Russia's alliances are growing stronger, and the queues for key international organizations with its participation are growing (remember the recent application for BRICS membership from NATO country Turkey). Our state is strengthening its influence in the world, including with the help of "soft power" - as leaders of the Global South and East admit, "Russia's strength lies in the enduring power of its ideas." We propose to build the future, while the agonizing West is trying to bring back the past.

Russia, which the West tried to "tear to shreds", is becoming stronger and stronger. We have become the fourth economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity, having overtaken Japan and Germany . The peak of economic overheating has passed, inflation will decrease, GDP is growing faster than preliminary estimates - "growth of GDP by the end of the year may exceed the results of 2023". The real sector of the economy is growing, technological self-sufficiency and import substitution are proceeding at an accelerated pace. We are building more than ever, and the transport connectivity of territories is growing exponentially. The modernization of the BAM will be the largest construction project even by the standards of the USSR , and the Northern Sea Route will turn into the most important world year-round route. Russia is investing and will invest colossal funds in the development of demography and improving the living conditions of citizens. Work on new national projects is in the final stage.

The West has done everything to intimidate, demoralize and divide our society, but in fact it has turned out to be exactly the opposite. Our society is more consolidated than ever. The number of people signing contracts with the Armed Forces has not decreased, but has increased sharply.

In the context of the conflict in Ukraine, every single brilliant plan of the West and its puppets is failing. In particular, the terrorist attack on the Kursk region "wanted to make Russia fuss and get nervous, to stop the offensive in Donbass , but nothing worked": "No actions are being taken to contain our offensive - on the contrary, by transferring its fairly large units to the border areas, the enemy weakened itself in key areas, and our troops accelerated the offensive." The invasion of the Kursk region failed: the Russian military stabilized the situation and began to squeeze Ukrainian forces out of the region.

At the same time, the enemy's losses are horrific - and the West can no longer hide this. According to the Russian president, "this is fraught with the collapse of the front and the loss of combat capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces." Against the backdrop of astronomical losses in the "Russian meat grinder," the Kiev regime is planning the last total "graveyard," including teenagers and children, but "this will not help."

The Kursk region and Donbass will be liberated - this is our sacred task.

Negotiations on a peace agreement are still possible, but only on our terms, voiced earlier. If you don't want it, let's move on. And yes, we have updated our nuclear doctrine, you can forget about red lines.

In other words, Putin, and with him the whole country, have completely gone to hell - we just don’t want to understand that, it turns out, we have lost.

But the West would not be the West if it did not have an unexpected trump card up its sleeve.

The crushing response of our enemies to Putin's speech was the news that the Verkhovna Rada proposed not to build some kind of Ukrainian BAM, the Southern Sea Route or anything from the times of the Soviet Union, but to create a "ministry of the return of Ukrainians" in order to forcibly return their citizens from the West, and then send them to the front.

Here you have the fourth economy of the world, here you have the rapid development of the sixth part of the land, here you have global projects, here you have world authority, here you have the liberation of Donbass. We are not slaves, and we are part of the golden billion.

And now definitely surrender. Checkmate, Putin!

https://ria.ru/20240905/putin--1970893153.html

Has the US finally succeeded in choking off Russia’s biggest trade lifeline?, by Henry Johnston, a staff editor and writer for RT, contributing pieces mainly about economics and finance. He lives in Moscow, Russia. Henry worked for over a decade in the investment research unit of Russia’s largest bank. He has a deep interest in history and philosophy and is an avid amateur chess player. For RT, 09.07.2024.

With the threat of secondary sanctions being felt acutely by Chinese banks, Washington may be winning a single battle – but in an economic war being decisively lost.

The resilience of the Russian economy in the face of harsh Western sanctions sent those cheering the rise of multipolarity into victory laps. And it has been a huge embarrassment to the West. But Russia’s burgeoning problem settling payments with China demonstrates that this resilience isn’t without setbacks.

This past June, the US Treasury put the local banks of countries that trade with Russia in the crosshairs for secondary sanctions. The legal foundation for measures against companies or individuals found trading with sanctioned entities was originally implemented back in December, but it was in June that Washington expanded this framework and sent strong signals that this time it was serious. These threats were felt particularly acutely in China, Russia’s largest trade partner.

What happened and when

It started with the big state-owned Chinese banks, which began shying away from dealing with Russia at the beginning of the year. But there were always smaller, regional banks, which were seen as less exposed to the Western financial system, which would take their place. For a while, it seemed these banks would carry the day. But now even these institutions have followed suit.

By the summer, Chinese banks were rejecting and returning about 80% of Russian payments made in Chinese yuan, Kommersant reported in late July. An article in Izvestia from mid-August claimed that things were even worse: 98% of Chinese banks were refusing to take direct yuan payments from Russia.

The result has been delayed and disrupted payments for many Russian importers. A Reuters report from last week discusses how transactions with Russia are being shut down “en masse” and billions of yuan worth of payments are being held up, according to a government source.

“At that moment, all cross-border payments to China stopped. We found solutions, but it took about three weeks, which is a very long time, trade volumes fell drastically during that time,” the government source told Reuters.

Many Russian businesses have had to use various chains of intermediaries in third countries to handle their transactions, which has driven up both costs and processing times. The problems have mostly affected smaller companies doing business in consumer goods. Bilateral arrangements for large companies – such as Russian commodity exporters – appear to mostly still function, although there have been some hiccups there, too.

Meanwhile, the tighter restrictions have led to a drying up of yuan liquidity in the Russian market. In other words, it has become harder and more expensive for Russian companies needing yuan to get ahold of the currency. Given how much of Russia’s trade now takes place in the Chinese currency, this is certainly an issue.

The cost of raising yuan for one day (overnight rate) on the Moscow Exchange has exploded. The situation had actually begun deteriorating at the end of August. On August 30, the final business day of the month, the overnight rate surged from 8.5% per annum to 42.2%. Bankers explained this as elevated demand at the end of the month. But this week – already in the new month – the rate only kept rising, reaching an unprecedented 212% on Wednesday, before coming down somewhat. Such market behavior points to an acute yuan liquidity deficit. It has also pushed the ruble to its lowest level against the Chinese currency since April.

As a result of the squeeze, more and more firms are having to turn on a regular basis to a channel previously used as a last resort – expensive swaps with the Russian central bank (whereby entities post rubles as collateral in exchange for yuan). At the start of September, Russian banks raised a record 35 billion yuan through this facility, well up from the 20 billion daily average in August and 10 billion average in June. Essentially, the Bank of Russia is being forced to fill the gap left by Chinese private banks operating in Russia.

Banks are now calling on the Russian central bank to increase the offer of yuan through swaps. “I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of state lender VTB, emphasizing that exporters, many of whom are paid in yuan, should sell more of the Chinese currency into the market as well.

The problems with payments this year have already affected imports, although the current figures come with a lag and do not reflect the most recent surge in yuan costs. Russian imports from China dropped by more than 1% to $62 billion over the first seven months of this year, according to official Chinese data. Russia’s central bank forecast that the country’s total imports of goods and services will fall by as much as 3% this year. But it will be important to watch how the figures for China’s exports to Russia – whether direct or transshipped through other countries – shape up the rest of the year in light of the surging transaction costs.

In the short term, of course, a certain amount of friction will continue to be experienced. Alex Isakov, a US-based Russia analyst, told Bloomberg that “Russia’s yuan money market hasn’t recovered, which suggests that Russian banks are struggling to find reliable workarounds.” The Russian central bank will almost certainly have to play a larger role, and exporters will probably also step in to provide liquidity. But there is no quick and easy fix.

In making sense of these issues, first of all, it is important to note that this problem is well understood in Russia and is freely discussed, including at the highest levels of government and in the media. No façade is being erected; there is no attempt to suppress this story. It’s been on the front pages of the Russian financial press.

It also bears keeping in mind that Russia-China trade is not exactly collapsing. In fact, despite the problems, turnover actually grew overall by 1.6% in the first half of this year. More importantly, the experience of the last few years has shown that whatever headwinds emerge end up being a strong driver of change.

In this context, a comment made by Russian economist and presidential aide Maksim Oreshkin this week at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok is important. Responding to a journalist’s questions about the payment issues, he said: “There is a problem with payments, but, as we have seen over the past years, any type of problem leads to new financial innovations, to the appearance of new payment methods.”

This is not just empty rhetoric or the face-saving cliché of a Russian official. It’s exactly what’s happening. As Business Insider admitted, the West’s tightening sanctions are pressuring Russia, “but Moscow keeps finding ways to keep the country’s economy going.“ A number of initiatives are afoot.

What solutions may be forthcoming

In July, China’s ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, floated the possibility of cooperating via Russia’s Mir payment system, stating that Russian and Chinese institutions were studying the possibility. While China would likely not view the Mir system as a long-term solution, it could be a stop-gap measure. Such rhetoric also demonstrates the seriousness that the Chinese side is bringing to the task of finding a solution to the roadblocks thrown up by Washington.  

Meanwhile, in a significant policy shift, Russia earlier this summer embraced the use of cryptocurrencies for international settlements. In commenting on the regulator's softening stance toward digital assets, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized the need to embrace new financial technologies to navigate the current challenges.

Thinking longer-term, Anatoly Aksakov, who chairs the State Duma committee on financial markets, recently touched on what will almost certainly be a key element of the future financial landscape – central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) – which are like cryptocurrencies but backed by central banks. Both Russia and China have been at the forefront of pioneering such infrastructure.

However, Aksakov, who has spoken about CBDCs before, has been careful not to oversell the initiative, saying earlier: “Fundamentally, there are few countries that have made serious progress in using national digital currencies. This is why technologically they are simply not ready to launch a digital currency in mutual settlements with other countries.“ Nevertheless, he is optimistic, predicting that CBDC settlements “will be common practice within five years.”

He is not alone in thinking so. More than half of the world’s central banks are either studying or already developing CBDCs, according to the IMF. As these CBDCs become increasingly interlinked it would essentially recreate the network of correspondent banks that underpins the current system. Such a CBDC-based network, buffeted by bilateral currency swap lines, would enable central banks to serve as intermediaries for currency flows between local banking systems.

Legendary analyst Zoltan Pozsar, who sees CBDCs as likely to revolutionize the financial landscape, explains that instead of correspondent banks – which form the backbone of the Western financial system – there will be what he calls “correspondent central banks.” This means that transactions that were previously dealt with between commercial banks in two different countries, for example, will be settled at the level of those countries' central banks.

This is important because it is precisely commercial banks that are on the front lines of enforcing sanctions. They have both the responsibility and the authority to block transactions involving restricted entities. But what if these banks are entirely removed from cross-border trade? Would the US resort to sanctioning the central banks of countries trading with Russia?

Certainly, as Aksakov and many others admit, a large-scale CBDC-based system won't be rolled out next week. Such infrastructure will require strong cooperation among central banks and use of a single technical platform, or some kind of unified clearing system. None of those are presently in place; but nor are they impossible to create. The Bank for International Settlements, an international institution owned by member central banks, is already overseeing testing of a CBDC platform for wholesale cross-border payments.

Washington's Pyrrhic victory

Let’s come back to the issue at hand and try to get a sense of what it all means. The West has been deeply frustrated by its inability to put a significant dent in the Russian economy. Having doubled and tripled down on its approach, it is now treating Russia’s payment problems as confirmation that sanctions, if applied rigorously enough, can have the intended effect. Washington apparently feels that treading all over other nations’ sovereignty is a reasonable tradeoff for the benefit of pushing up the transaction costs for Russian businesses and proving that the yuan hasn't achieved the stature of the dollar.

Furthermore, some Western commentators are pointing out with glee that for all the rhetoric of the “friendship without limits” between Moscow and Beijing, when forced to choose between doing business with Russia and retaining access to the Western financial system, China is choosing the latter. But those celebrating China ostensibly coming to heel over the sanctions don't want to acknowledge that it is a choice made under duress. China would prefer to trade freely with both the West and Russia and deeply resents being hindered in doing so. Chinese officials have stated as much on numerous occasions. The US is behaving like a jealous lover who has locked the object of his affection in the basement and then claims that her not fleeing is a sign of devotion.

That Western commentators and officials can only see the Russia-China relationship through the lens of power dynamics – looking for signs that China could be abusing its ‘junior’ partner – says more about the Western fixation on one-sided relationships than about the true state of things. China is a sovereign nation that is naturally looking out for its interests, and Russia expects nothing less of it. There are no hard feelings. As cliché as it sounds, it really is a relationship defined by mutual respect for sovereignty. In the current situation, Beijing has to act pragmatically, but the erosion of goodwill toward the US this episode is producing in Beijing will find its outlet.

It is also argued that the huge disparity in interest rates between Russia and China points to the fact that the two countries’ economies are fundamentally misaligned. This is an exaggeration but insofar as it contains a kernel of truth, it is largely an artificially imposed misalignment and one that should prove temporary, especially once Russian rates eventually come down. The Russian and Chinese economies are actually quite complementary.

So are the travails with payments a victory for US sanctions? Yes, undeniably. But it is a rather short-sighted and ephemeral victory. It is a single battle won in an economic war being decisively lost. Far from a demonstration of strength, Washington’s overbearing meddling in the trade relations of sovereign nations across the globe is more akin to burning the furniture to keep warm. It will eventually be self-defeating.

The fading hegemon still has a few trump cards it can play with some effect – and it is playing them now. But every time it does, it brings closer the day in which those cards will be rendered obsolete.

https://www.rt.com/business/603586-russia-china-us-sanctions-payments/

One innocent phrase from Putin caused an earthquake in the West, by Kirill Strelnikov for RiaNovosti. 09.15.2024.

At yet another completely internal working meeting with the Russian government, President Vladimir Putin proposed "thinking" about the possibility of limiting supplies to foreign markets of strategic raw materials such as uranium, nickel, titanium and a number of others, provided that this does not harm the Russian economy.

This request caused a completely inexplicable phenomenon: Western markets immediately literally exploded, prices for the above-mentioned goods jumped sharply, and economic and specialized media were simply flooded with panic-stricken publications.

Where do you get such nerves, our successful sanctioners? After all, everyone knows very well: a country where a toilet is a luxury and planes are made from washing machines taken from Ukraine does not affect anything and its place in the world rankings is somewhere in the region of Upper Volta (now Burkina Faso ).

Just the day before, respected world experts could not understand why "doomed" Russia was not crawling on its knees with a repentant head. For example, the publication Foreign Policy reported that "Western sanctions, no matter how massive and historically large-scale they were, have not undermined Putin's ability to wage war." And now they rushed to see what would happen if Russia not only thought about, but also did something about its own counter-sanctions - and many interesting things came to light.

For example, if restrictions are imposed on uranium exports, the US nuclear energy industry will not collapse, but will be close to it. Proud Americans do not talk about it, but the share of Russian fuel for American nuclear power plants is almost a third, and in the foreseeable future there is simply nothing to replace aggressive Russian electrons and neutrons. According to Reuters, "uranium is one of the things that can really harm the West," and Citi experts said that "(Russian uranium) will be very difficult to replace" given that Rosatom is behind half of the world's nuclear energy generation.

Here Western experts rushed to see what alternatives there were. Thank God, there is conditionally neutral Kazakhstan , which is in first place in uranium production, and they got away with it. But completely by chance - literally on the eve of Putin's innocent request to "think about it" - the head of Kazatomprom stated that "Kazakhstan is experiencing growing difficulties with uranium supplies to the Western market" due to anti-Russian sanctions that have disrupted traditional routes, and now it is easier for Astana to sell uranium to China and (oops!) Russia. And it is absolutely obvious that Rosatom, which recently bought the largest uranium deposit in Kazakhstan and came in second place in the world in terms of its reserves (and also has a "significant" share in all six uranium mining companies in the country), has nothing to do with this statement.

Approximately the same disappointing picture has been painted in oil for titanium. Russia occupies a quarter of the world market for this strategic metal and a third of its "sponge" modification, which is critically important for aircraft and shipbuilding, and the company " VSMPO-Avisma " is the world's largest titanium producer with a full technological cycle. According to information from the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI), "Russia is a key supplier of titanium in the world" and if restrictions are introduced, "global markets will be destroyed."

It is interesting that after the start of the SVO, Boeing and Airbus pompously declared a "complete and unconditional" refusal to use Russian titanium. But it turned out that this was a complete and unconditional lie: Western authorities quietly included these companies in the "small" exceptions and they happily continue to build aircraft from Russian totalitarian titanium and aluminum, and if they disappear - again, there will be nothing to replace them with (or it will be very, very difficult, expensive and time-consuming).

An even funnier situation emerged with nickel. Russia is third in the world in both "raw" and enriched nickel, behind only Indonesia and the Philippines . After Putin's hint, stock exchange prices for nickel jumped by almost three percent in an hour: despite all the bans, almost 40% of all nickel on the main "rare earth" London exchange LME is of Russian origin.

And the nickel story (if it continues) could influence the West much more than even uranium and titanium. The fact is that absolutely all the fuss with the "green revolution" in the West is tied to rare metals, which are needed in wind energy, solar panels, and electric cars, and the West's obsession is to win the battle against China on this field.

Unlike China, which mainly uses lithium for electric vehicle batteries, the US has placed its bets on nickel, and demand for it could grow sixfold by 2035. Accordingly, it is absolutely critical for the United States to obtain the maximum amount of nickel, and preferably all of it.

After Putin's words, the Americans ran to Indonesia (42% of the world market for enriched nickel), but here too, things went awry: Indonesia announced that it plans to join BRICS , and then Russia became one of the main suppliers of grain to the country (a tenfold increase in a year). No one is hinting at anything, but there is a non-zero probability that Russia and Indonesia will resolve the nickel issue amicably, but the Americans will definitely not be in this love triangle.
Russia has long warned that the West needs us more than we need it. The epiphany has already happened – and this is only the beginning.

https://ria.ru/20240915/putin-1972753940.html